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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #100 on: January 15, 2016, 04:26:23 PM »
The first & second plots show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecasts from Jan 15 to 22 2016, for 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, respectively.  They both show weakly favorable (weak WWB) El Nino conditions from Jan 15 to 20, and then they indicate the possibility that these weakly favorable conditions may become moderately favorable.

The third plot shows NOAA's GFS Ensemble (NCPB) MJO forecast from Jan 15 to 29 2016, indicating that the MJO will be destructive to El Nino conditions until after Jan 16 and then will be neutral.

The fourth image shows the WunderMap projection near the Equatorial Dateline for Jan 23 2016 showing a possible moderately-strong WWB (cyclone northwest of the Eq. Dateline) activity.
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deep octopus

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #101 on: January 15, 2016, 05:27:44 PM »
Tropical Tidbits is showing a moderate rebound to the Niño 3.4 index over recent days, I guess partially a result of the stronger lower level westerlies. We will see if this manifests as a rebound in the NOAA figures as well.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #102 on: January 15, 2016, 07:00:36 PM »
Per the first attached image of the ECMF MJO forecast for Jan 15 to 29 2016, the MJO is already in the neutral area (today).

The second image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW Map for Jan 15 2016 showing the remnants of Tropical Depression Pali & reasonably high WWB activity.

The third image show the Earth 850-hPa Wind & TCW forecast for Jan 19 2016 showing reduced WWB activity but increasing cloud activity.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #103 on: January 16, 2016, 02:09:39 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to
-13.5:

20151216,20160114,-13.5



Edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: January 16, 2016, 02:37:01 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #104 on: January 16, 2016, 04:10:11 PM »
The first two images show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast fro Jan 16 to 23 2016 at 850-hPa and 200-hPa, respectively.  This images indicate that by around Jan 21/22 2016 the Walker Cell may be reorganizing itself into a configuration favorable for El Nino strengthening.

The third image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom through about Jan 16 2016, showing a rapid increase in heat content, strongly indicating that another downwelling plus of the EKW is headed eastward across the Eq Pac.

The fourth image shows NOAA's CFSv2 uncorrected Nino 3.4 forecast issued Jan 16 2016; with the new ensemble members indicating a sharp increasing in the Nino 3.4 index around the end of Jan to beginning of Feb 2016 that may come somewhat close to the 2015 high.

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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #105 on: January 16, 2016, 04:17:06 PM »
The four attached images were all created from the Nullschool Earth system today showing Wind and MSLP forecasts.  The first two images so the 850-hPa, and the 250-hPa, conditions respectively for Jan 16 2016; while the last two images show the 850-hPa and the 250-hPa, conditions respectively for Jan 20 2016.  These images show a gradual weakening of the recent WWB, and a gradual reconfiguration of the Walker Cell into a pattern more conducive for favorable El Nino reinforcement.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #106 on: January 16, 2016, 04:27:12 PM »
The first three images are from Tropical Tidbits, with the first image showing the change in SSTA for the last 7-days.  To me this first image shows that the old downwelling plus of the EKW has fully reflected off of South America and so temperatures in the Nino 1&2 range are dropping, and that as the current westerly winds are concentrated south of the equator (see the immediate past post) the Nino 4 is cooling north of the equator and warming to the south of the equator as the WWB activity pushes another downwelling plus eastward from the Dateline.  The second and third images show the daily Nino 3 and 3.4 indices, respectively, both showing rapid rates of increase as warm water flows into the two regions from both the east and the west.

The fourth image shows the NOAA GFS Ensemble (NCPB) MJO forecast from Jan 16 to 30 2016, showing that the one-day skill level of the NCPB was higher than that for the ECMF as the MJO remained destructive to El Nino conditions yesterday, but should drop to being neutral today.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #107 on: January 16, 2016, 09:02:48 PM »
What I find interesting is that our El Nino now is more and more taking the shape of a full blown canonical El Nino compared to what we saw by fall and December. Another thing that I'm thinking of is the recent values from the Nino 3-area which to my old eyes are the highest so far during this event. How big were the highest anomalies in this area during 1997-1998?

By tomorrow sunday we should see how much effect the recent extremely strong WWB have had on the subsurface anomalies!

One thing that strikes me is the long build up of this event. As we now see a restrengthening one may wonder if the eventusl transition to La Nina will be slower than earlier events. A scenario like 1982-1985 is possible.

In 1998 the melt onset in the Arctic was early while the melt offset was late. At least according to DMI. Just something to watch this year...

Finally, the PDO went up to +1,01 in December according to JISAO.

Best, LMV
« Last Edit: January 16, 2016, 09:19:58 PM by Lord M Vader »

gregb

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #108 on: January 16, 2016, 10:01:31 PM »
By tomorrow sunday we should see how much effect the recent extremely strong WWB have had on the subsurface anomalies!


No need to wait. Rapidly rising temperatures have been evident on the TAO bouy strings over the last week:http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #109 on: January 17, 2016, 02:19:33 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -14.6:

20151217,20160115,-14.6

Edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: January 17, 2016, 02:30:25 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #110 on: January 17, 2016, 06:03:36 PM »
The first image shows the ECMF MJO forecast from Jan 17 to 31 2016, indicating that through Jan 24 the MJO should be neutral, and from Jan 25 to 31 may (or may not) be slightly destructive to El Nino reinforcing conditions.

The second & third images support this forecast & show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Jan 17 to 24 2016 for the 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, cases respectively.  These plots indicate that for the period of the forecast the Walker Cell will be configured to support El Nino reinforcing conditions.

The fourth image shows the BoM Eq Dateline Cloud Cover through about Jan 17 2016 indicating that cloud cover is now increasing at the Eq Dateline, which indicates that the Walker Cell likely is supporting El Nino reinforcing atmospheric conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #111 on: January 17, 2016, 06:10:07 PM »
The first three images are from NOAA, with the first two showing Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom, and Temp Profile, respectively, for Jan 13 2016, and the third showing the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom thru about Jan 17 2016.  All of these plots show that a new downwelling phase of the EKW has now strengthening.

The fourth image show the CC-Reanalyzer 5-day Temp Anom forecast for the Southern Hemisphere issued Jan 17 2016.  This plot shows anomalously high surface temperatures across the hemisphere, supporting the idea that the current El Nino will remain relatively strong (with strong teleconnection of atmospheric energy to the Southern Hemisphere) during this period.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #112 on: January 17, 2016, 06:16:21 PM »
While I generally prefer posting weekly, monthly, or three-month averages of Nino indices; nevertheless, I provide the four attached daily Nino indices for the Tropical Tidbits Nino 1&2, 3, 3.4 and 4, indices respectively, for Jan 17 2016, all of which support the idea that another downwelling phase of the EKW is underway and that a secondary peak for the key Nino 3.4 index is likely to occur in late Jan/early Feb 2016 (as currently forecast by the CFSv2)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #113 on: January 17, 2016, 06:19:46 PM »
The two attached images are from the Nullschool forecast for Jan 21 2016 for the Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW; and the Earth 250-hPa Wind & MSLP, conditions respectively.  These plots support the idea that by this date the Walker Cell will be configured into a pattern supporting El Nino reinforcement.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #114 on: January 17, 2016, 06:36:04 PM »
Attached is the TAO plots through Jan 17 2016 of the 2S-2N 5-day average values for the Zonal Wind Anom and the Ocean Heat Content Anom.  These show that another downwelling phase of the EKW has indeed begun & was likely triggered by the recent WWB.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #115 on: January 18, 2016, 02:24:51 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped sharply down to -15.7:
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #116 on: January 18, 2016, 06:38:24 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped sharply down to -15.7:

Ah, so there might be life to the +++ENSO after all still.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #117 on: January 18, 2016, 12:03:13 PM »
The two attached images are from the Nullschool forecast for Jan 22 2016, for 850-hPa & TCW, and for 250-hPa & TPW, respectively.  These images show: (a) suppressed trade winds; (b) extensive cloud cover around the Eq Dateline; (c) A Walker Cell that is moderately configured to support El Nino reinforcement & (d) a SPCZ that is re-establishing itself.  All of these observations indicate that the current Super El Nino will degrade more slowly than previously forecast.
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #118 on: January 18, 2016, 01:43:00 PM »
An animation of the uncorrected forecasts for Nino34, earlier posted in this thread. December 30, January 9 and todays forecast, January 18. Had to stretch the middle picture to fit the others due to lower resolution. Click to animate.

Also attaching the Nino4 plume from ECMWF.

deep octopus

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #119 on: January 18, 2016, 03:30:51 PM »
NOAA reports that the Niño 3.4 region held at +2.6 C during the week centered on January 13th. Niño 3 rebounded to +2.8 C, the strongest anomaly since mid-December. The Niño 1+2 regions cooled to +1.4 C and Niño 4 slid to +1.3 C.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 09DEC2015     24.8 2.3     28.0 2.9     29.4 2.8     30.2 1.7
 16DEC2015     25.2 2.4     28.0 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
 30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3

Attached is the SST anomaly chart by OSPO for January 18th.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #120 on: January 18, 2016, 05:54:13 PM »
To follow-up on DO's post, we should remember that per the daily Tropical Tidbit plots that the Nino 3.4 index did not start increasing until Jan 10 2016, show when NOAA's reports a weekly Nino 3.4 value centered on Jan 13th it is very reasonable that this value has not changed from last week.

Furthermore, the first three images were issued today (Jan 18 2016) by NOAA and show the: (a) Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom Evolution, showing that another downwelling phase has begun; (b) Eq Pac 5S-5N SSTA Evolution showing that the portion of the past EKW pulse reflected off of South America has now reached the Nino 3 zone, thus accounting for its weekly increase; and (c) the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom through Jan 18 also shows that a new downwelling phase of the EKW has entered the Eastern Eq Pac from the west.

The fourth image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP Map for Jan 18 2016 showing weak trade winds and a negative daily SOI.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #121 on: January 18, 2016, 05:59:07 PM »
The first two images were issued today by the U at Albany showing the 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Jan 18 to 25 2016, for the 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, conditions respectively.  These plots indicate that while the WWB has ended, the Walker Cell will reinforce El Nino conditions for the duration of the forecast.

The last two image were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 17 2016, with the first image showing that the Nino 3.4 index dropped slightly, while the second image shows that the IOD remains negative but neutral.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #122 on: January 18, 2016, 06:01:51 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 17 2016, and show that the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, all dropped last week.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #123 on: January 18, 2016, 09:35:55 PM »
Just to continue my prior posts of Tropical Tidbit Daily Nino Indices plots, I provide these four plots for the Nino 1&2, 3, 3.4 and 4, respectively, through Jan 18 2016.  These plots support my basic premise that the current secondary peak (shoulder) will be short lived, and that the current Super El Nino will continue to degrade but more slowly than previously considered:
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #124 on: January 19, 2016, 12:28:30 AM »
Today's Oceans Are Different Than They Were Twenty Years Ago
While we can’t say that climate change causes El Nino, the evidence is mounting that the warming of our planet could be intensifying the natural phenomenon, which in turn can lead to some extreme weather events. New research published today in the journal Nature Climate Change found that half of the warming of our oceans seen since 1865 has happened in the past twenty years.

“Since the 1990s, the total amount of heat content change in the oceans is twice that of what we’d seen up until that point in the past 150 years,” said Chris Forest, a Penn State meteorology professor and coauthor of the paper.

While El Nino and La Nina are cyclical phenomena, they are powered by warm water in the Pacific and this current El Nino is accompanied by record-setting ocean temperatures. The combination has already led to a series of intense storms and flooding in line with the effects of previous strong El Nino years. While the new research does not attempt to link the data on warming oceans to the current El Nino, some see a correlation in that the two strongest El Nino events we’ve seen have occurred in that same twenty year window.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2016/01/18/todays-oceans-are-different-than-they-were-twenty-years-ago/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #125 on: January 19, 2016, 02:21:31 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -16.3:

20151219,20160117,-16.3


Edit: Here's the plot
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #126 on: January 19, 2016, 07:21:38 PM »
The first two attached plots show the U at Albany 5S-5N forecasts for Wind Anom from Jan 19 to 26 2016 for 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, respectively.  These plots show the Walker Cell weakly supporting El Nino conditions, but subject to disruption by possible future MJO activity (see the third image showing the ECMF MJO forecast from Jan 19 to Feb 2 2016).
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #127 on: January 20, 2016, 02:23:50 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -17.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #128 on: January 20, 2016, 04:09:11 PM »
The linked LA Times article indicates that to date most of this wet season's rain/snow has been in Northern California (due to an unusually persistent high pressure system to the Southwest of California), but experts believe that by the end of January through February the Southland will be more "Pineapple Express" storms:

http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-el-nino-nor-cal-20160119-story.html

Extract: "One reason why storms haven't been able to get through to Southern California in recent weeks is an area of high pressure southwest of the state that has been unusually persistent, Stanford University climate scientist Daniel Swain said.
Although the forecast does not show any signs of major storms in the next week in the Southland, there appears to be a window of opportunity for significant precipitation to return shortly after that, Swain said.
Computer models suggest that there will be a burst of energy in the jet stream later in January.
The pattern suggests that "if there are any storms in the pipeline at the end of January, they will be able to both have a trajectory that might bring them into Southern California and it might allow them to maintain their strength," Swain said.
….

Experts say it's possible that the classic El Niño-influenced pattern could emerge by late January or early February. That would put it more in line with how the most punishing series of storms arrived in February 1998 and March of 1983.
"As we look back, the big show is usually in February, March — even into April and May," Patzert said. "So, in many ways, this is on schedule."


"This thing is getting ready to have a second peak," Patzert said. "I think El Niño will live up to its hype, but you have to be patient.""
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #129 on: January 20, 2016, 04:47:41 PM »
The first two images are from the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Jan 20 to 27 2016, for the 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, cases, respectively.  These show atmospheric Walker conditions that reasonably reinforce El Nino conditions through Jan 23 2016, with a subsequent reversion back to near neutral atmospheric conditions.

The third image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW forecast for Jan 24 2016, that generally supports the UatA forecast; however, I note that this image also shows that the SPCZ is becoming more organized, which might (or might not) support El Nino conditions after Jan 27.

The fourth image shows the GFS (NCPB) Ensemble MJO forecast from Jan 20 to Feb 3 2016, indicating that through Jan 23 the MJO should remain weak, but that is might (or might not) strengthen after that over the Indian Ocean which (if it were to occur) would be disruptive to El Nino (ie negative SOI) conditions:
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #130 on: January 21, 2016, 12:30:17 AM »
I thought that I would note that the attached NOAA Eq Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Anom 180-100W plot, circa Jan 20 2016, shows that the downwelling phase of the EKW is still carrying heat from the Western Pacific into the Eastern Pacific.
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #131 on: January 21, 2016, 02:27:45 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -18.0

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #132 on: January 21, 2016, 04:36:08 PM »
The two attached images are from the following BBC site and they explain how/why the ITCZ shifts from one hemisphere to the other following the shift in the Thermal Equator.  Thus, the monsoon trough in the Western Pacific in January is located in the Southern Hemisphere and is currently weak.  The monsoon trough is an elongated area of low pressure that promotes the formation of Tropical Storms/Depressions and cyclones, that may (or may not) promote the development of WWBs:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/education/guides/z9yssbk/revision
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #133 on: January 21, 2016, 04:51:53 PM »
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast for Jan 21 to 28 2016, showing that the period of recent weak WWBs has come to an end.

The second image shows the ECMF MJO forecast from Jan 21 to Feb 4 2016, showing a weak MJO for the next week, which may (or may not) strengthen as it moves from the Indian Ocean into the Maritime Continent.
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #134 on: January 21, 2016, 07:17:48 PM »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #135 on: January 22, 2016, 02:48:04 AM »
Per the following data and the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -18.6:

20151222,20160120,-18.6
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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #136 on: January 22, 2016, 05:32:58 AM »
Tweet from Eric Blake.
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/690206247673532416
97-98 #ElNino much farther along to neutral/#LaNina than now @ subsurface- huge downwelling Kelvin Wave @ 140W noted
Open the first attachment below to view.

He also makes a comparison to January 20 in 91-92. Second attachment.
Imagine that follow up to this event... Third attachment.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #137 on: January 22, 2016, 06:32:06 PM »
The first two images support Sleepy's post, that another pulse of downwelling for the EKW is well underway, as they show NOAA's computer model output for Jan 18 2016 for the Eq Pac Sursurface Temp Anom, and Temp, respectively.

The third image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom thru about Jan 22 2016, showing that the pulse of downwelling for the EKW continues to advect warm water from the Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific.

The fourth image shows the Tropical Tidbit's daily Nino 3.4 through Jan 22 2016; and if this data has any correlation to the NOAA weekly Nino 3.4 data, then next Monday we can expect to see an increase in the weekly Nino 3.4 index.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #138 on: January 22, 2016, 06:38:22 PM »
The first two images are from the Nullschool map for Jan 22 2016 showing the 850-hPa & MSLP, and the 200-hPa & TPW, maps respectively.  The last two images are the Nullschool forecast for Jan 26 2016, again for the 850-hPa & MSLP, and the 200-hPa & TPW, forecasts respectively.  These maps show that currently the daily SOI is relatively strongly negative and that a modest westerly wind persists near (south of) the Eq Dateline; but that by Jan 26 the atmosphere should provide less support for El Nino conditions (as is forecast by the UatA not shown).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #139 on: January 23, 2016, 02:36:06 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -19.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #140 on: January 23, 2016, 03:38:25 AM »
The first image shows the BoM's POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting Jan 17 2016, clearly showing that this index show start to raise to a secondary peak (shoulder) before starting to drop again.

The last three images show the BoM's Nino 3.4 model forecast summaries for Feb., April and June 2016, respectively.  These plots show that most models agree through April, while for June only NOAA is truly bullish for remaining El Nino conditions through that month, while the BoM forecast is weakly bullish.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #141 on: January 23, 2016, 06:18:25 PM »
For comparison with the TAO subsurface data provided in Reply #108, I provide the following two subsurface 5-day mean temperature plots for the period ending Jan 22 2016, for the temperature, and temperature anom, respectively.  This data confirms that the current downwelling phase of the EKW is underway:

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #142 on: January 24, 2016, 02:22:26 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -21.2.  While this is a 2.0 drop from yesterday, the real question is for how many days or weeks that the SOI can mean so low :
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #143 on: January 24, 2016, 04:15:33 PM »
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Jan 24 2016, which indicates that the current downwelling phase of the EKW is: (a) effectively (for the time being) holding back cooler subsurface water from the Western Pacific, and (b) that this downwelling phase will be smaller than that in Nov 2015 and may likely peak soon.

The last statement is supported by the last three images from Levi Cowan's Tropical Tidbits which show the daily Nino 1+2, 3.4 and 4 indices for Jan 24 2016, respectively.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #144 on: January 24, 2016, 04:18:23 PM »
As NOAA's GFS (NCPB) Ensemble MJO forecast is reasonably accurate for about 4-days, I provide the attached plot issued today by NOAA indicating that the MJO should be weak for a while and thus should have little impact on our current El Nino (for the time being).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #145 on: January 25, 2016, 02:28:39 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued plunging down to -22.3 (we will see if it stays this low or not):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #146 on: January 25, 2016, 09:28:05 AM »
The latest uncorrected from CFSv2 looks almost crazy towards September.

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #147 on: January 25, 2016, 02:05:46 PM »
Somewhat surprisingly to me, the following NOAA (NCEP) weekly data, for the week centered on January 20, 2016, indicates that both Nino 3 & 3.4 indices dropped down to +2.5:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 04NOV2015     23.4 2.1     27.8 2.8     29.5 2.8     30.3 1.7
 11NOV2015     23.5 2.0     27.9 3.0     29.7 3.0     30.3 1.7
 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8
 25NOV2015     24.4 2.4     28.0 3.0     29.6 3.0     30.3 1.8
 02DEC2015     24.7 2.4     27.9 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 09DEC2015     24.8 2.3     28.0 2.9     29.4 2.8     30.2 1.7
 16DEC2015     25.2 2.4     28.0 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
 30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3
 20JAN2016     26.0 1.4     28.2 2.5     29.1 2.5     29.6 1.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #148 on: January 25, 2016, 04:06:57 PM »
Per the first two images from the BoM for the week ending Jan 24 2016, both the Nino 3.4 and the IOD were down (less positive and more negative, respectively).

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Jan 25 to Feb 1 2016, indicating little, or no, WWB activity.

The fourth image shows the GFS (NCPB) Ensemble MJO forecast from Jan 25 to Feb 8 2016, showing little, or no, significant MJO activity in the next week.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #149 on: January 25, 2016, 04:09:13 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 24 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4, indices, respectively.  All values are down, except the Nino 4 index, which is slightly up.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson