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Author Topic: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath  (Read 191027 times)

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1100 on: December 12, 2016, 02:05:43 PM »
Cyclone Vardah has made landfall in southern India, near Chennai. Equiv of Cat 1 hurricane (120-130kph winds)
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/Heavy-rain-lashes-Chennai-wind-speed-likely-to-cross-100kmph/articleshow/55934951.cms

Scariest visuals from Chennai....  (Video at this link:)
https://twitter.com/aravindbob/status/808259187335659521
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1101 on: December 12, 2016, 06:02:47 PM »
In the following Nino data NOAA indicates that for the week centered on Dec 7 2016, the Nino 3.4 has slipped back down into the La Nina range at -0.6C.  Nevertheless, the first two images posted today by NOAA for the Eq Pac (showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively), indicate a weak trend towards neutral conditions.  The last two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Dec 11 2016 (showing the Nino 3.4 and IOD indices, respectively), indicate that we are currently in ENSO neutral conditions:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 09NOV2016     21.8 0.4     24.5-0.4     26.0-0.7     28.1-0.5
 16NOV2016     21.5-0.1     24.7-0.3     26.2-0.4     28.3-0.3
 23NOV2016     21.6-0.3     24.7-0.3     26.3-0.4     28.3-0.3
 30NOV2016     22.2 0.1     24.5-0.5     26.2-0.4     28.4-0.2
 07DEC2016     22.8 0.3     24.6-0.5     26.0-0.6     28.3-0.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1102 on: December 12, 2016, 06:05:12 PM »
The four attached images were issued today by the BoM showing the weekly Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All of this data indicates current neutral ENSO conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

jai mitchell

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1103 on: December 12, 2016, 07:08:23 PM »
I used these in  my talk today, it is amazing what a reduction in Sulfur Dioxide emissions does for the +PDO and the potential for ANY new La Nina events becomes increasingly slim.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1104 on: December 13, 2016, 02:47:53 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -0.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Pmt111500

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1105 on: December 13, 2016, 05:40:32 AM »
Could it be a time for a new thread concerning the state of ENSO? La Nina 2017?, is likely a too bold name for it but I wouldn't mind using 2017 on the name of the thread, as the effect of ENSO to the atmospheric temperatures in tropics is a few months delayed...

@Jai Mitchell, that is a remarkable result/observation and connects neatly to the hypothesis of the connection between larger volcanic eruptions and ENSO.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1106 on: December 13, 2016, 07:48:34 AM »
Pmt111500: if we are not having a full fledged La Niña this year, I suggest that the next threads name will simply be either "ENSO" or "El Niño/La Niña". That will make it more sustainable too.


Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1107 on: December 13, 2016, 12:45:30 PM »
Much of this thread is about the here and now, so claiming 2017 soon would make some sense.  I am sure we are still feeling the effects of the 2015/16 El Niño, though, so we continue to be in "the aftermath".

While I'm here: what is the value of watching the BoM 30-day moving average SOI on a daily basis? 
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1108 on: December 13, 2016, 01:16:55 PM »
<clip>

While I'm here: what is the value of watching the BoM 30-day moving average SOI on a daily basis?

A healthy reminder that the daily value may swing quite a lot? I also prefer the larger picture showing all the sections of tropical Pacific as there may be indications in area 1 and 2 what's coming up in the 3 and 4 area. MJO and other areas of Pacific undoubtly affect the SOI on daily basis. The averaged indexes do not show these. I'd be happy with weekly info, but as politics may change on daily basis I don't complain about this sort of stuff as long as it doesn't clutter every thread...
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1109 on: December 14, 2016, 04:37:45 AM »
While I'm here: what is the value of watching the BoM 30-day moving average SOI on a daily basis?

Some of the individual daily SOI plots have been downloaded by over 2,000 people, so they appear to be collected like a hobby.  So so-long as people enjoy downloading the plots, I might as well post them.

And with that in mind, the attached plot was issued today by the BoM indicating that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -0.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1110 on: December 15, 2016, 02:29:16 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -0.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1111 on: December 15, 2016, 06:47:12 PM »
In todays publication wrt the Atlantic hurricane season 2017 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach at the Tropical Meteorological Project at Colorado State University there is a very interesting discussion about the ENSO state for 2017 at page 9-12.

By examining the ENSO state two years after a moderate or a strong El Niño it appears that out of 20 cases since 1871, only once (in 1904) did an El Niño show up.

Link to the pdf: http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2016/12/2016-12.pdf

Update: JISAO just came in with the second highest PDO-value (+1,88) trailing behind 1936 at +2,65.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2016, 11:39:56 PM by Lord M Vader »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1112 on: December 16, 2016, 02:30:31 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1113 on: December 17, 2016, 02:28:42 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1114 on: December 18, 2016, 04:40:18 PM »
Per the attached plot issued yesteday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1115 on: December 18, 2016, 08:20:41 PM »
While I'm here: what is the value of watching the BoM 30-day moving average SOI on a daily basis?
Some of the individual daily SOI plots have been downloaded by over 2,000 people, so they appear to be collected like a hobby.  So so-long as people enjoy downloading the plots, I might as well post them.
...
Thanks.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1116 on: December 19, 2016, 02:27:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1117 on: December 19, 2016, 07:42:27 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly nino data, the first two NOAA plots (of the Eq Pac. SSTA evolution and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively) issued today, and the last two BoM weekly index plots for the week ending Dec 18 2016 (for the Nino 3.4 & IOD, respectively); the ENSO conditions remain neutral (but on the cool side).


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 09NOV2016     21.8 0.4     24.5-0.4     26.0-0.7     28.1-0.5
 16NOV2016     21.5-0.1     24.7-0.3     26.2-0.4     28.3-0.3
 23NOV2016     21.6-0.3     24.7-0.3     26.3-0.4     28.3-0.3
 30NOV2016     22.2 0.1     24.5-0.5     26.2-0.4     28.4-0.2
 07DEC2016     22.8 0.3     24.6-0.5     26.0-0.6     28.3-0.2
 14DEC2016     23.2 0.5     24.6-0.5     26.1-0.4     28.2-0.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1118 on: December 19, 2016, 07:44:18 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Dec 18 2016, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They all indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1119 on: December 20, 2016, 02:26:01 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1120 on: December 21, 2016, 02:28:35 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1121 on: December 22, 2016, 02:24:02 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.4:

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1122 on: December 24, 2016, 05:30:33 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted to +3.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1123 on: December 25, 2016, 05:54:32 PM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1124 on: December 25, 2016, 11:52:56 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Typhoon Nock-Ten (Nina) Makes Landfall on the Philippines on Christmas Day".

https://weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/typhoon-nock-ten-nina-philippines-christmas

Extract: "Super Typhoon Nock-ten rapidly intensified through Christmas Eve, but is now weakening in the Central Philippines after landfall on Christmas Day. This dangerous storm will hammer that country into Monday, bringing destructive winds, massive storm surge flooding and torrential rainfall."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1125 on: December 26, 2016, 03:59:14 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +2.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1126 on: December 27, 2016, 09:29:18 PM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +1.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1127 on: December 27, 2016, 10:03:42 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly nino data, the first NOAA plot of the Eq Pac. the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, and the second image of the TAO Eq Pac subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles both issued today, and the last two BoM weekly index plots for the week ending Dec 25 2016 (for the Nino 3.4 & IOD, respectively); the ENSO conditions remain neutral (but on the cool side).


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 16NOV2016     21.5-0.1     24.7-0.3     26.2-0.4     28.3-0.3
 23NOV2016     21.6-0.3     24.7-0.3     26.3-0.4     28.3-0.3
 30NOV2016     22.2 0.1     24.5-0.5     26.2-0.4     28.4-0.2
 07DEC2016     22.8 0.3     24.6-0.5     26.0-0.6     28.3-0.2
 14DEC2016     23.2 0.5     24.6-0.5     26.1-0.4     28.2-0.2
 21DEC2016     23.6 0.6     25.0-0.2     26.2-0.3     28.3-0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1128 on: December 27, 2016, 10:09:28 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Dec 25 2016, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They all indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1129 on: December 28, 2016, 10:32:43 PM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +1.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1130 on: December 29, 2016, 08:13:36 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +0.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1131 on: December 30, 2016, 08:04:42 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +0.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1132 on: December 30, 2016, 08:38:21 PM »
Looks like the mild La Nina conditions are short lived...

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1133 on: December 31, 2016, 04:29:58 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +1.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1134 on: January 01, 2017, 10:29:05 PM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +1.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1135 on: January 03, 2017, 02:37:15 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1136 on: January 03, 2017, 03:39:32 PM »
Another aftermath of this El Nino was the boost in CO2 level increases over prior year. This association of El Nino and following CO2 yr/yr increases looks like the attached. What is even more interesting are when monthly CO2 increases occurred in the absence of El Nino.

There is more at: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/

A4R

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1137 on: January 03, 2017, 06:01:58 PM »
The following NOAA weekly nino index values through the week centered on Dec 28 2016 indicates continued ENSO neutral conditions and virtually eliminates the possibility of an official La Nina in 2016.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 16NOV2016     21.5-0.1     24.7-0.3     26.2-0.4     28.3-0.3
 23NOV2016     21.6-0.3     24.7-0.3     26.3-0.4     28.3-0.3
 30NOV2016     22.2 0.1     24.5-0.5     26.2-0.4     28.4-0.2
 07DEC2016     22.8 0.3     24.6-0.5     26.0-0.6     28.3-0.2
 14DEC2016     23.2 0.5     24.6-0.5     26.1-0.4     28.2-0.2
 21DEC2016     23.6 0.6     25.0-0.2     26.2-0.3     28.3-0.1
 28DEC2016     24.2 0.8     25.0-0.3     26.3-0.3     28.3-0.1

The first attached image was issued today by NOAA for the daily Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom.  The second image was issued yesterday by NOAA shows the Eq Pac SSTA evolution.  The third & fourth images were issued two days ago by the BoM through the week ending January 1 2017 for the IOD and the Nino 3.4 indices, respectively.  All of these plots show continuing neutral ENSO conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1138 on: January 03, 2017, 06:05:12 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino 1,2, 3 & 4 plots, respectively, through the week ending Jan 1 2017 where issued by the BoM, and they all indicate continuing neutral ENSO conditions.

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1139 on: January 03, 2017, 07:12:36 PM »
Australian BoM forecast shows a roughly 36% chance that we will see a new El Niño by August. And then one should remember that the BOM threshold for El Niño is higher compared to NOAA as well as the fact that we'll enter the spring barrier by less than 2 months.

In addition to that, the models give a 48% chance that the IOD will go positive by August.

For now, it seems like that a surge of easterlies will emerge soon and perhaps evolve into a strong event by next week.

Highly interesting things!!!

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1140 on: January 04, 2017, 02:26:33 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +4.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1141 on: January 05, 2017, 03:08:18 AM »
Per the first attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.2:


Per the second attached plot issued by the BoM shows the POAMA model Nino 3.4 forecast starting Jan 1 2017:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1142 on: January 05, 2017, 12:02:04 PM »
NOAAs ONI-value for October-November-December (OND) was -0,8 which is the same as for the periods ASO and SON. If the value for November-December and January is -0,5 or lower a full-fledged La Niña will be declared. The combined ONI-values for November and December were -1,65 (-0,93 and -0,72 respectively).

This means that the monthly ONI-value needs to be just +0,16 to get an ONI-value less than -0,5 for the period NDJ. To boom the La Niña conditions for sure the January value needs to be at least +0,21. Such a high value seems extremely unlikely IMO.

From the monthly ONI-values in the attached link with values back to 1950 there haven't been ANY case in which the monthly ONI-value have differed as much as 0,93. The best I could find was May-June 1998 which saw a difference by 0,82. Wrt the current statistics I daresay that there is a 99% likelihood that NOAA will declare a full-fledged La Niña for the season 2016/2017. What do you think guys?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« Reply #1143 on: January 06, 2017, 03:20:53 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson