2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath

[Pmt111500]

Umm, the set of images on Enso areas would very much look like the event has at most one peak still to come and maybe the waxing phase has ended. Requires confirmation of course. ENSO has already produced some of its known weather effects and we should continue to see these and more. The oddball cyclone straight to arctic would likely have had some of its energy from the tropical pacific via tropical atlantic. The strong cold break going on in Asia might be linked to the peak of nino, and why not also Jonas the storm could have been milder absent nino. Etc etc... Plenty of stuff going on that meteorologists may study.

The way i see it The next two-four-six months see direct effects of this great nino. The six following see much winter rains and then the effects may enter the Arctic. I think the n.pacific hot blob might reform but there have been el ninos that direct the hot anomalies to s.hemiphere too. I've got no idea what this one will do. Oh. This might be the longest post i've ever written with  a phone, so this might not be very fluent. Better i end here for i can't anymore remember how the message started. There maybe edits afterwards.

[gregb]

If you have been following ASLR's daily SOI posts, this should comes as no surprise:

According to NASA's Earth Observatory, this shift in the SOI was not missed by scientists monitoring the pattern:

Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, sees the potential for a second peak for this El Niño. He pointed to a recent relaxation in the trade winds and a west wind burst that could refuel the warming trend in the eastern Pacific. Weaker trade winds in the eastern Pacific allow west wind bursts to push warm waters toward the Americas. Patzert suspects February and March 2016 could still be very active months for El Niño-driven weather along the western coasts of the Americas.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/el-nino-update-could-it-be-gaining-a-second-wind/62695/

And a word regarding the CFS and other models - as I understand it, model skill will soon decrease as we approach the "spring barrier". Perhaps this is one cause for the increasingly chaotic output. I find it interesting that the CFS, unlike most other models, no longer indicates any sort of quick reversal into a La Nina state.

[AbruptSLR]

Today's attached BoM plot indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has reached at least a two year low and now is at -23.3:

[Pmt111500]

Thanks gregb, I wasn't aware of the statement, I occasionally check many of the graphs but do not follow those intensely, like ASRL. Rather I'm trying to 'take snapshots' of interesting situations and try to formulate some sensible text about them. Sometimes this goes way off but here at asiforum there are plenty of peers to cross-check speculations and pointing out errors, that are inevitable in the absence of perfection in the analysis of complex systems and in the presence of human fallibility and lack of correct info and fully eidetic memory.

F.e. I thought the spring barrier only applied when there isn't an el nino going on. What do you think, could the spring barrier be of mathematical origin? Say when the itcz crosses the equator there might be some zero-issues like those in the poles? This is not likely as there are no issues during autumn, but i find the specific notion odd, one would think the skill would be the same the whole time?

[Sleepy]

This might not be a good explanation, but I'll try.
The origin of the spring predictability barrier is mostly due to unpredictable weather patterns. If what you put into the models is uncertain, then the errors in the output will increase as well.

And as for trying to understand if we will have a La Nina or not later on, while following model outputs, the Nino4 region is probably the better region to monitor.

Right now in winter, with strong El Nino conditions, dynamical model outputs should provide a better forecast.
Comparing to regular weather forecasts, the initial runs from a model can sometimes be more accurate than the later ones. I don't know if thats true for these longer forecasts, but I do think that following them consistently is the way to go to try to understand when they are on track or off. And of course, following it in real time.

I'll attach the ECMWF Nino34 plumes for February, March and April from last year.

[AbruptSLR]

Compared to the TAO image from Jan 24 2016 in Reply #143, the attached TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom plot for Jan 26 2016, shows a small region of +6C subsurface anomaly; which indicates that the downwelling phase of the EKW has yet to peak (but note that the SSTA looks to be somewhat coolish in the Nino 3.4 region)

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -23.0:

[AbruptSLR]

The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Jan 27 2016.  As the region of +6C temp anom has disappeared we can assume that the current downwelling phase of the EKW may have just peaked.  This idea is supported by the second image of NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa January 27 2016, showing that the heat content is no longer increasing.  I also note that there are no meaningful WWBs in the forecast, so it looks like the current El Nino will continue to degrade.

[AbruptSLR]

The linked Robert Scribbler article supports some of A-Team's concerns that the current Super El Nino may not bring much precipitation to the US Southwest (as forecast), and raises the question of whether Polar Amplification (and/or the Blob) may be creating blocking highs that deflect storms to the north:

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/26/polar-amplification-vs-a-godzilla-el-nino-is-the-pacific-storm-track-being-shoved-north-by-arctic-warming/

Extract: "Polar Amplification vs a Godzilla El Nino — Is the Pacific Storm Track Being Shoved North by Arctic Warming?

…

Particularly, there has been an absence of powerful storms running in over Southern California then surging on into Arizona, New Mexico and West Texas. During strong El Nino events, heat and moisture bleeding off the super-warmed Equator have typically fed powerful storms racing across the Pacific. These storms have tended to engulf the entire US Pacific Coast from San Diego through to Seattle. However, much of the storm energy is often directed further south toward Central and Southern California.
…

The question to be asked is, then, are these new influences related to human-forced warming also now doing battle with El Nino for control over the Pacific Storm Track? And has that influence increased enough to dramatically nudge that track northward? We may find the answer to that question in what happens to the direction of powerful Pacific Storms over the next few months. But early indications seem to be that polar warming and the related hot blob may have thrown a wrench in the kinds of El Nino storms that we’ve been used to."

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -23.6:

[Tor Bejnar]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -23.6:

Wow, that's the lowest this El Nino.  Does it imply anything?

[Sleepy]

Fluctuations in the SOI are common this time of year. Looking at the big picture, this event should be fading now. AGW is not.

[A-Team]

The linked Robert Scribbler article supports some of A-Team's concerns that the current Super El Nino may not bring much precipitation to the US Southwest (as forecast), and raises the question of whether Polar Amplification (and/or the Blob) may be creating blocking highs that deflect storms to the north

Do the math: there's not going to be any aftermath in the Southwest (a critical area of prediction effort). I called this one on 10 Dec 15 (bottom 5 links) some 47 days ahead of Scribbler, who deserves high marks though for exploring mechanism and not following the meteorological herd: JPL NASA climatology and 100 others:

http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-ln-where-is-el-nino-20160126-story.html.

On a scale of 1-5, I can at best give the meteorological community a score of -1 in forecasting skill because bad advice is worse than no advice. Instead of squandering the public trust in science on nonsensical preparations for flooding/food hoarding, we should have been preparing them for extension of the drought.

I also predicted the excuse list back in December that will come to dominate weather news in another month but need to add a few new ones:

-- in the past, the big El Nino rains always come in January, February March April, trust us
-- with all the new data from this godzilla El Nino, we can perfect our computer models for next time
-- our computer models performed perfectly, just not where you are
-- our models successfully predicted heavy El Nino rains if you don't count the jet stream
-- just two big prior El Nino years can provide sound statistics even though the climates were different back then
-- we might be headed for a big La Nada or La Nina (if only our funding can be increased!)
-- wow, that big snowstorm in DC, no doubt that's attributable to El Nino
-- look over there, hurricane season has started in the Caribbean

I've noticed lately a lot of weather sites have taken it upon themselves to redefine 'normal' precip as relative to only the last 20 year average! When 15 of those were drought cycle? Sure, but if we go down that cherry-picking road, 2015 had fairly 'normal' CO₂ and global temps too.

Colorado River basin snowpack (ie Southern California water) is now 102.72% of the January 28th 'average'. In other words, you'll be taking navy showers again by June.

Sierra Nevada snowpack showed water content statewide at 18.7 inches or 115% of the historical average for that date, according to the California Department of Water Resources. The snowpack’s water content must be significantly greater than the April 1 average of 28 inches to have any considerable effect on the drought, according to the department.  In an average year, melting snowpack provides roughly one third of the water used by California cities and farms.

I'm trying to keep an open mind about December, January, mid-February, late-Feb and March but when I open up to the 250 hPA wind and walk it back for a month (no change) or look another 10 days forward at Jeff Masters (no change), it shuts down again:

http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/pubs_10-05.html Jennifer Francis publications
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-110.80,42.71,393

I have a simple proposal: let's compile all weather data from 1980 on but only north of the Mexican border, double-blind the years (eg 1997/98 --> 2fTy/m4He), test the top 100 self-appointed climate experts for their ability to identify the status of the waters in the south equatorial Pacific (numerical strength of El Nino conditions, or merely which years were the strong El Ninos).

My theory is once meteorologists are told it's a godzilla El Nino, everything under the sun gets attributed to it -- and echoed everywhere (as happened with Piltdown Man, polywater, and desktop nuclear fusion). But if you had told them it's a neutral La Nada, the identical event would get attributed to normal chaotic fluctuations in 'weather'. I'm predicting that no one can invert the data north of Mexico to the status of south equatorial Pacific waters.

We all know what happens when this is done with wine sommeliers: Two Buck Chuck and Gallo Hearty Burgundy come out on top of all them fancy bordeaux.

2015 El Niño?: Reply #1431 on December 10, 2015
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg66948.html#msg66948

2015 El Niño?: Reply #1429 on December 10, 2015
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg66940.html#msg66940

2015 El Niño?: Reply #1458 on December 21, 2015
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg67293.html#msg67293

Thermohaline Circulation Connections: Reply #3 on December 31, 2015
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1448.msg67664.html#msg67664

2015/16 El Niño the aftermath: Reply #62 on January 10, 2016
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.msg68122.html#msg68122

[AbruptSLR]

Fluctuations in the SOI are common this time of year. Looking at the big picture, this event should be fading now. AGW is not.

I concur that looking at the big picture this El Nino is clearly fading now.  Furthermore, looking at the last 30-day moving SOI average is like looking in the rearview mirror (in that it looks at the past 30-day's events that yielded a very weak downwelling phase of the EKW but that is already dissipating).  In general terms, the 30-day moving average SOI only means something when its values are sustained for periods of two to three months.

[Tor Bejnar]

Thanks, Sleepy and ASLR.

[AbruptSLR]

My theory is once meteorologists are told it's a godzilla El Nino, everything under the sun gets attributed to it -- and echoed everywhere (as happened with Piltdown Man, polywater, and desktop nuclear fusion). But if you had told them it's a neutral La Nada, the identical event would get attributed to normal chaotic fluctuations in 'weather'. I'm predicting that no one can invert the data north of Mexico to the status of south equatorial Pacific waters.

We all know what happens when this is done with wine sommeliers: Two Buck Chuck and Gallo Hearty Burgundy come out on top of all them fancy bordeaux.

A-Team,

You make a lot of good points; most of which illustrate to me why it is so difficult for climate scientists to discredit denalists, and also illustrate why most climate scientists err on the side of least drama.  First, many meteorologists have expressed doubts about climate change, as they use empirically determined relationships to forecast local weather and they say that they have not seen clear proof of an emergent climate change signal.  Now w.r.t. forecasting the ENSO cycle is half way between climate trends and local weather, so one would expect a lot of message spinning in this matter.  Until forecasting agencies (like NOAA) have routine access to daily/weekly updates from well calibrated non-linear global models (like ACME 5 to 10 years from now); it will remain impossible to forecast the type of dynamic interaction between Arctic Amplification and the ENSO cycle that Scribbler is discussing.  Unfortunately, you are correct that denalists make hay about the fact that the forecasts in Arizona were off, and so they cast doubts about climate change (e.g. doubts that climate change will increase the frequency of large El Nino events); nevertheless, I say that climate scientists need to develop thick skins (like James Hansen) to take some short-term heat (note that Hansen has been proven to be a bit too bullish on short-term occasions, but has looked very wise (to me at least) in the long-term) otherwise no one will take timely climate action until the well calibrated non-linear models can provide accurate regional forecasts on a weekly basis.

Lastly, I note that per the following linked drought report, that the Godzilla El Nino has so far made a modest dent in the drought (but more so in California than Arizona).


http://www.capradio.org/articles/2016/01/28/modest-dents-in-long-term-california-drought/

Unfortunately, climate change is a "wicked problem" that likely will not be solved until well after billions of people have died this century due to lack of appropriate action.

Best,
ASLR

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -22.7:

[wili]

The climate system of the whole planet is fundamentally altered, so of course this El Nino is going to play out rather differently than most others. Just because LA hasn't had exactly the weather predicted yet doesn't mean that there haven't been any effects north of Mexico.

Based on the being an El Nino year, predictions were for a somewhat warmer and dryer winter than usual here in MN. We have certainly had that here so far. I haven't kept track of predicted effects versus actual weather in other areas, though.

[Sleepy]

Yes, every El Nino is different and I think most people following this one have noticed that AGW played a large part. This Tamino post that was posted in the global surface air temperatures thread, deserves to be posted here as well.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/el-nino-and-the-2015-record-breaking-heat/

My result indicates that el Niño led to 0.08 deg.C warmer temperature in 2015. That’s hardly enough to explain the record heat, which was mainly due to global warming. Note, however, that el Niño caused fully 0.2 deg.C warming in 1998, so the record heat of that year — which the deniers love to point to as the “end” of global warming — really was due to el Niño.

For 2015 as a whole, el Niño contributed in a small way to its extreme heat. But the main factor was the continuing trend. That’s due to man-made greenhouse gases, and it’s called global warming.

I'll wait a bit longer. Scandinavia had a cold snap, but that's about it and it wasn't really El Nino induced. Maybe another cold snap in February, but I would favour March to be affected and colder than normal. Maybe.

[AbruptSLR]

The first image of the Earth 250-hPa Wind & TPW forecast for Jan 31 2016, includes Arizona and shows that by Sunday night/Monday morning Arizona should have rain in the low-lands and snow in the high-lands.  This indicates that the Asian Jetstream has (at least temporarily) moved the high pressure system of the coast of California out of its typical path.

The second & third image shows NOAA's & TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom profiles, for Jan 23 and for Jan 29 2016, respectively.  Both of these images confirm that the recent weak downwelling phase of the EKW has already peaked and is now degrading.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -21.9:

[AbruptSLR]

The climate system of the whole planet is fundamentally altered, so of course this El Nino is going to play out rather differently than most others. Just because LA hasn't had exactly the weather predicted yet doesn't mean that there haven't been any effects north of Mexico.

Based on the being an El Nino year, predictions were for a somewhat warmer and dryer winter than usual here in MN. We have certainly had that here so far. I haven't kept track of predicted effects versus actual weather in other areas, though.

The linked article discusses the WHO's projection that our current super El Nino event threatens the health of a least 60 million people in high-risk developing countries:

http://www.who.int/hac/crises/el-nino/22january2015/en/

Extract: "El Niño threatens at least 60 million people in high-risk developing countries

WHO and its partners predict a major global increase in health consequences of emergencies this year due to El Niño."

[wili]

We can only hope they're wrong about this one. Well, we could also prepare...

{sark}nah, better to allow a predictable crisis to explode in our faces rather than take any early preventive action. That worked so well for Ebola and now for Zika! {/sark}

[AbruptSLR]

The linked article indicates that both global warming and the ENSO cycle have contributed to the explosive spread of the Zika virus (see also the associated attached map):

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/zika-virus-climate-change-19970

Extract: "The rapid rise of the Zika virus is turning into a full-on public health crisis. The virus, transferred via specific types of mosquitoes, “is now spreading explosively” across Latin America, according to Margaret Chan, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO).
There could be up to 4 million cases right now, just eight months after the first case was reported in Brazil. There are 23 countries where the virus is active.
A number of factors have had to line up for the Zika virus — a disease that’s been associated with birth defects — to spread so far and wide so quickly, but chief among them is heavy rain and heat. Climate change could play a future role in this virus’ — as well as other mosquito-borne illnesses — spread as it creates conditions more favorable to the mosquitoes that transmit it.
Heavy rain and warm temperatures have helped the mosquitoes carrying Zika thrive. There have been heavy rains in southern Brazil and Uruguay this winter (and really for much of the year). Those rains can translate to standing water on the ground, which is crucial mosquito breeding habitat. El Niño has a strong influence on that region and it’s likely playing a role in increased risk of the Zika virus there.
The outbreak initially started in the northeast of the country, however, which usually dries out during El Niño (this year has been no exception). It might seem counterintuitive but drought is also prime time for mosquitoes. There's a notable link between an uptick in dengue fever — another disease transmitted by mosquitoes that transmit Zika — and drought because of how people store water in the region.
Then there's the heat.

Temperatures have been above normal for much of Latin America as a whole since early last year, which was also the warmest on record for the world. El Niño has helped warm things up, but climate change is directly responsible for all of last year’s record heat globally.

That heat is in some ways a more important ingredient driving the Zika virus outbreak. It not only means mosquitoes can incubate the virus, but also that people are also more likely to be outside and have exposed skin for mosquitoes to feast on.

...

In fact, a La Niña could help the virus spread to other parts of Latin America and the Caribbean.
“Historically, La Niña periods in the Caribbean during the summer months is a dengue time bomb,” Teddy Allen, a postdoctoral researcher at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, said. “The same could be said about Zika since it is transmitted by the same aedes aegypti mosquito.”

In winter, La Niña tips the odds in favor of wetter than normal conditions in northeast Brazil, which could help the virus continue to get a foothold there as well. Vittor said it’s also possible that the virus could evolve and get picked up by other mosquitoes."

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -21.5:

[Sleepy]

We can only hope they're wrong about this one. Well, we could also prepare...

{sark}nah, better to allow a predictable crisis to explode in our faces rather than take any early preventive action. That worked so well for Ebola and now for Zika! {/sark}

Hope is the last thing ever lost.
Here we are occupied with other things, like getting rid of immigrants.
http://www.svt.se/nyheter/regionalt/vast/har-tander-de-eld-pa-assyriska-foreningens-lokaler

[AbruptSLR]

We can only hope they're wrong about this one. Well, we could also prepare...

{sark}nah, better to allow a predictable crisis to explode in our faces rather than take any early preventive action. That worked so well for Ebola and now for Zika! {/sark}

Hope is the last thing ever lost.
Here we are occupied with other things, like getting rid of immigrants.
http://www.svt.se/nyheter/regionalt/vast/har-tander-de-eld-pa-assyriska-foreningens-lokaler

Germany also wishes to return its immigrants:
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/01/31/merkel-migrants-must-return-home-once-war-is-over/

However, the reality is that only more climate refugees will be smuggled into Europe from Sub-Saharan Africa (for the next couple of years at least many of these will be associated with the current super El Nino event):
http://qz.com/605609/the-climate-change-refugee-crisis-is-only-just-beginning/

Edit: See also:
http://www.eturbonews.com/67840/eu-humanitarian-aid-horn-africa

Extract: "In Somalia, El Niño has triggered higher than usual rainfalls in the south with around 150 000 people facing floods at the end of 2015. At the same time, the weather phenomenon is linked to drought in the north, where over 340 000 people are in urgent need of assistance. In a fragile context, such as in Somalia, even small-scale natural hazards can have a devastating effect.

In Ethiopia, the number of food insecure people has increased from 2.9 million at the beginning of 2015 to over 10 million currently. Rates of acute undernutrition are well above emergency thresholds in many parts of the country. Meanwhile, the response to this situation is hindered by an important shortage of nutrition supplies. In the worst affected areas in the northern, central and eastern regions of the country, hundreds of thousands of livestock deaths have been reported.

...

The EU is one of the largest donors in the Horn of Africa, having provided over €1 billion in humanitarian aid since 2011.

For 2016, the EU will provide €77 million in humanitarian assistance in the region. The support will mostly cover the needs in the areas of food, nutrition, health, water, sanitation and hygiene, shelter, protection and education in emergencies.

This comes in addition to the El Niño related support of €79 million announced in December last year for the Greater Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda).

Edit2: See Also:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/climate-change-could-devastate-africa-its-already-hurting-this-kenyan-town/2016/01/29/f77c8e5a-9f58-11e5-9ad2-568d814bbf3b_story.html

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -20.6:

[wili]

Thanks for the links (though I would steer clear of Breitbart if you are looking for reliably accurate reporting).

Meanwhile, there seem to be some odd El Nino effects going on in CA:

Ice dams choke off community

The intense weather wasn’t limited to Southern California.

In the northeast part of the state, ice dams formed on the South Fork of the Yuba River, CNN affiliate KCRA reported.

The frozen blockades — and a recent onslaught of rain — caused a backlog of water, flooding parts of Soda Springs, the affiliate said.

“We can blame it on El Nino,” Vick Ferrera of the Nevada County Office of Emergency Services told KCRA.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/01/us/california-weather/

[AbruptSLR]

Thanks for the links (though I would steer clear of Breitbart if you are looking for reliably accurate reporting).

Thanks for the heads-up about Breitbart.  Here is a replacement link to another source:

https://www.rt.com/news/330808-merkel-refugees-go-home/

Extract: "German Chancellor Angela Merkel says that most of the refugees entering Germany from Syria and Iraq are expected to return home once conflicts in their countries have ended. The statement comes as Merkel facing mounting pressure over her open-door policy. "

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following weekly NOAA Nino indices data, Nino 3.4 remained constant at 2.5 while the Nino 4 index rose to 1.5, for the week centered on Jan 27, 2016.  Also, the attached NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom through about Feb 1 2016 shows a plateau in ocean heat content:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8
 25NOV2015     24.4 2.4     28.0 3.0     29.6 3.0     30.3 1.8
 02DEC2015     24.7 2.4     27.9 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 09DEC2015     24.8 2.3     28.0 2.9     29.4 2.8     30.2 1.7
 16DEC2015     25.2 2.4     28.0 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
 30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3
 20JAN2016     26.0 1.4     28.2 2.5     29.1 2.5     29.6 1.4
 27JAN2016     26.1 1.0     28.2 2.3     29.1 2.5     29.7 1.5

[AbruptSLR]

The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 31 2016 showing that both the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, indices respectively, remained relatively constant last week.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA showing both the Eq Pac SSTA, and Upper Ocean Heat Anom, Evolutions respectively; which verify that a recent weak downwelling phase of the EKW just peaked (which almost certainly slowed the rate of decline for the current El Nino).

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 31 2016, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively.  This shows the Nino 1&2 region relatively stable, Nino 3 declining and Nino 4 increasing:

[AbruptSLR]

The first image shows the ECMF MJO forecast from Feb 1 to 15 2016, indicating that the MJO should remain neutral for the next 4 days and then should increase as it heads into the Western Pacific (where if it continues to the International Dateline it could contribute to atmospheric conditions that reinforce El Nino continues, for as long as the MJO might stay in the Central Eq Pacific).

The second image shows the BoM's Eq Pac Dateline Cloud Cover data issued circa Feb 1 2016, showing increasing cloud cover that might (or might not) eventually contribute to a Walker Cell pattern that weakly support El Nino conditions (i.e. potentially slowing the rate of the current El Nino decline).

The last two images show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Feb 1 to 8 2016, for the 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, conditions respectively.  These plots show suppressed trade winds for the duration of the forecast, with the possibility (or not) of enhanced Walker Cell El Nino pattern at the end of the period.

[wili]

More on El Nino and CA (apologies if this was already linked): http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-is-here-so-why-is-california-still-in-drought-19975?utm_content=buffer4c2e0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer


El Niño Is Here, So Why Is California Still in Drought?

A parade of El Niño-fueled storms has marched over California in the last few weeks, bringing bouts of much needed rain and snow to the parched state. But maps of drought conditions there have barely budged, with nearly two-thirds of the state still in the worst two categories of drought.

So what gives?

The short answer, experts say, is that the drought built up over several years (with help from hotter temperatures fueled in part by global warming) and it will take many more storms and almost assuredly more than a single winter — even one with a strong El Niño — to erase it...

[While some short-term indicators have improved]...Long-term impacts like depleted groundwater, low reservoir levels and pitiful stream flows, “they’re not responding much at all yet,” Brian Fuchs, another NDMC climatologist, said. “The reservoir levels have hardly moved.”

[ritter]

In the 2016 freezing thread, Lord M Vader notes the possible return of the RRR. My observation: After promising and "normal" December and January temperatures and rainfall, February is looking like the return of Februly with temps forecast in the high 60s to low 70s and zippo rainfall in the next two weeks for the Northern Bay Area.  Not the drought buster we hoped for.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -19.2:

20160102,20160131,-19.2


Edit: Here's the plot

[Lord M Vader]

Latest monthly MJO forecast from ECMWF suggests a possibility of a moderate WWB by the second half of February as the MJO moves toward phase 6-8. If so our latest EKW should continue to build. Quite a big difference in the subsurface temps between the two last times (see noaa subsurface animation).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

//LMV

[Tor Bejnar]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -19.2:
...

I know you meant something like "... the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up, now at -19.2"

[gregb]

In the 2016 freezing thread, Lord M Vader notes the possible return of the RRR. My observation: After promising and "normal" December and January temperatures and rainfall, February is looking like the return of Februly with temps forecast in the high 60s to low 70s and zippo rainfall in the next two weeks for the Northern Bay Area.  Not the drought buster we hoped for.

Weather does seem to be returning to the RRR pattern we saw last year. The following image from the long range GFS forecast looks like many from this time last year, with the same NA East/West temperature division and jet stream position. The anomalies shown below appear at the end of a forecasted week+ of warm, dry weather on the west coast. The rainfall totals have dropped off considerably in the NW since the start of the year and there is now none in the forecast after a weak system passes through over the next few days.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -19.2:
...

I know you meant something like "... the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up, now at -19.2"

Thanks.  I will need to pay more attention in the future.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -19.2:
...

I know you meant something like "... the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up, now at -19.2"

Thanks.  I will need to pay more attention in the future.

Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -17.8:

20160103,20160201,-17.8

[JimD]

ASLR

I wanted to point out something related to one of your posts about 10 days ago.  You were talking about the poor forecasting for precipitation in the Southwest for this El Nino.

Here in AZ we are having one of the wettest winters in many years.  While 2015 was still a drought year where I live (the last year with above average precipitation was 1998) the total was higher than all but 1 year since 1998.  And so far in 2016 we are seeing continuing significant moisture. 

This of course makes no claim as to what the eventual winter totals will be nor if they will be above the historical precipitation average, but it is indeed a wetter year than has been the norm for some time now.

I attribute some of our outlook to the need to shift our viewpoint to account for the changing climate.  What I mean here is that the old historical numbers on precipitation are no longer useful for future predictions.  Due to the nature of this long drought and the effects of climate change kicking in to drive the SW into deeper and longer term drought we can no longer use historical numbers to gauge current status.

In other words this is indeed an El Nino wet year with above average precipitation, but it is not statistically possible to recognize it since we no longer know precisely what average precipitation actually is - since the old numbers one would use to calculate them are so far from current and likely future conditions.

For example where I live in Prescott, AZ the historical norm for precipitation was 19 inches up until 1998 - not a typo there as much of the AZ high country historically received good rainfall.  Today the historical norm for precipitation is 18 inches in Prescott, but as I mentioned we have not had the historical norm (whether we consider it 19 or 18) since 1998.  We are in freefall so to speak.  Over the last 18 years our high year has been about 15 inches and the average more like 12 inches.  Where is the bottom you say?  Who knows, but this really tells us that the old numbers are no longer usefull in many ways.

If 2015 was a high precip year at just under 15 inches and with our new norm seeming to be heading for around 12 inches then this El Nino did indeed meet the forecast expectations of being a very wet SW.  It just points out to how screwed we really are.

What do you think of that?

[Sigmetnow]

New post from AGU explains the measured dearth of chlorophyll in the top layers of the ocean during El Niño.

Understanding the 2015–16 El Niño and its impact on phytoplankton

Focusing on the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño events are highlighted as times when sea-surface chlorophyll concentrations decline along the equator due to the loss of the normal nutrient supply from deep water. This decrease in primary productivity is felt by species up the highest levels of the marine food web.

https://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2016/02/01/13164/

[Lord M Vader]

Latest run from CFS v2 hints the possibilty of a moderate to very strong WWB by wek 3-4. At the same time the forecast indicates significantly increasing westerlies at 850 hpa west of California(!) Initially it looks like the easterlies in the far east pacific will reactivate and cool down the waters in Nino 1+2 area before the westerlies take over. Will be very interesting to see if the forecasts continue to show this solution or if it will fizzle.

See and judge for yourself http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/

Best, LMV

[AbruptSLR]

ASLR

I wanted to point out something related to one of your posts about 10 days ago.  You were talking about the poor forecasting for precipitation in the Southwest for this El Nino.

Here in AZ we are having one of the wettest winters in many years. 

...

It just points out to how screwed we really are.

What do you think of that?

JimD,

I think that the points that you make are reasonable.  That AGW will contribute to long-term drought in the SW, and that the ENSO pattern is super-imposed on this pattern.

That said climate change is a "wicked problem" filled with uncertainties and most people are only interested in what effects them specifically and they want a relatively high degree of certainty before they are willing to support any action at all (I note that the need for climate change action has been clear starting at least in the early 1980's, but that very little action has been taken to date).

I have posted that I am concerned that intense El Ninos will become more frequent with AGW; which does not mean that I think that the drought in the SW will not intensify.

Best,
ASLR

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -16.8:

20160104,20160202,-16.8


Edit: here is the plot

[Steven]

The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for the last 3-month period (November-December-January average) came in at  +2.31°C, exceeding the maximum ONI value of the 1997-1998 El Nino event by about 0.05°C:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[A-Team]

most people are only interested in what affects them specifically ... in Prescott AZ

Well, when FEMA spends a hundred million on emergency flood preparedness for the Southwest based on these ever-so-cocky predictions, then it becomes everybody's business. Perhaps some of this money should be clawed back from the salaries of these non-stop blowhards.

When Californians drastically ramp down conservation efforts baseed on these pronouncements, then later come raiding other states' water for relief (Frasier River pipeline would come down from BC), it affects many peoples lives.

When the meteorological community degrades the public confidence in science with their worthless predictions, that too becomes everybody's business. This is one of most intensively researched topics ever ... yet here we are with absolutely nothing to show for it. Why should the public believe sea level rise coming from these 'same' scientists?

AZ is in fact having an exceedingly dry winter (if by AZ you include Phoenix and Tucson). The main topic of conversation around here is the rain we had back in October (neither monsoonal nor nino). And we're looking at another ten days with no change, mid February temperatures in the low 80's (28.3ºC) to evaporate whatever soil moisture might still be around.

I would echo JimD on the the mickeymouse around 'average' rainfall. Same story in Tucson ... look at those older numbers, scratch your head, watch the cactus turn yellow and the CA joshua trees fall over, wonder how the old-timers ranched creosote bush, and imagine how things would look like if we ever saw average rain years again.

Also I should have added 'ridiculously resilient ridge' to the el nino excuse list in my previous post. I am sorting through google hits right now to see which excuses have been used most often and how that changes over time. They're going to ride this BS right out to the end, then switch over abruptly to hurricanes, that's my prediction.

The forums here have been well balanced and informative. By mid-March though, we may need to replace the aftermath forum with an undermath forum, lessons learned from failure and all that.

Edit: I should have made clear to folks overseas that this is not about our backyards being dry. It is about the Pacific Ocean weather systems that furnish most of the water to North America. And -- with the still-mysterious RRR forming up five years in a row -- this is not about some butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil.

It is about older weather statistics deteriorating rapidly in predictive value, models that rely on them and associated paradigms too much, the consequent breakdown in forecasting ability that comes with rapid climate change, and the meteorologists who can't admit to any of it.

[Tor Bejnar]

DROUGHT:
No respite for Southwest as weather patterns shift -- study
Scott Streater, E&E reporter
Published: Thursday, February 4, 2016

Changing weather patterns are resulting in decreased rainfall and worsening drought conditions across the southwestern United States, and the trend is likely to continue well into the late 21st century, according to a new federal study.

The study, which analyzed weather patterns across the country over a 35-year period between 1979 and 2014, found that, in the Southwest, weather patterns that typically produce moisture are becoming increasingly rare.

The study, published online today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, was led by researchers with the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
...

(I know 'nobody' trusts E&E, but I can read it at work.)