2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -18.6:

[AbruptSLR]

As the Arctic tends to lose more sea ice during La Nina years, and as La Nina events are more frequent during the negative phase of the PDO; the findings of the linked reference are not surprising concludes that: " We speculate that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase, if maintained and all other factors being equal, could act to temporarily reduce the pace of wintertime Arctic warming in the near future."

James A. Screen & Jennifer A. Francis (2016), "Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3011


http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3011.html

Abstract: "The pace of Arctic warming is about double that at lower latitudes—a robust phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Many diverse climate processes and feedbacks cause Arctic amplification, including positive feedbacks associated with diminished sea ice. However, the precise contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification remains uncertain. Through analyses of both observations and model simulations, we show that the contribution of sea-ice loss to wintertime Arctic amplification seems to be dependent on the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results suggest that, for the same pattern and amount of sea-ice loss, consequent Arctic warming is larger during the negative PDO phase relative to the positive phase, leading to larger reductions in the poleward gradient of tropospheric thickness and to more pronounced reductions in the upper-level westerlies. Given the oscillatory nature of the PDO, this relationship has the potential to increase skill in decadal-scale predictability of the Arctic and sub-Arctic climate. Our results indicate that Arctic warming in response to the ongoing long-term sea-ice decline is greater (reduced) during periods of the negative (positive) PDO phase. We speculate that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase, if maintained and all other factors being equal, could act to temporarily reduce the pace of wintertime Arctic warming in the near future."

[AbruptSLR]

The linked reference finds that natural variability increases with increasing global warming; indicating that we can expect to experience more intense El Nino & La Nina events with continued global warming:

Xiuhua Zhu , John Bye, Klaus Fraedrich and Isabella Bordi (2016), "Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming", Journal of Climate, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0505.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0505.1

Abstract: "Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future."

[AbruptSLR]

The linked reference discusses atmospheric & oceanic coupling & the ENSO cycle:

Zeng-Zhen Hu, Yu-heng Tseng, Wanqiu Wang, Arun Kumar, Jieshun Zhu & Bhaskar Jha (03 May 2016), "Does vertical temperature gradient of the atmosphere matter for El Niño development?", Climate Dynamics, pp 1-17, DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3149-9


http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3149-9

Abstract: "In this work, we examine the connection of vertical temperature gradient of the tropospheric atmosphere along the equator with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the possible impact of the long-term change of the gradient. It is suggested that when the temperature anomalies in the lower troposphere are relatively warmer (cooler) than in the upper troposphere, the atmosphere is less (more) stable and favors an El Niño (a La Niña) event to develop. ENSO evolutions in 1997–1998 and 2014–2015 events are good examples of this relationship. They started from similar ocean anomaly states in the springs of 1997 and 2014, but developed into an extreme El Niño in 1997–1998 and a borderline El Niño in 2014–2015. That may be partially due to differences in the evolutions of the vertical temperature anomaly gradient in troposphere. Thus, in addition to the significant atmospheric response to ENSO, the preconditioning of vertical gradient of the tropospheric temperature due to internal atmospheric processes to some extent may play an active role in affecting ENSO evolution. The long-term trend with more pronounced warming in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere causes a reduction in the vertical temperature gradient in the troposphere. Moreover, unlike almost homogenous warm anomalies in the upper troposphere, the lower troposphere shows remarkable regional features along the equator during 1979–2014, with cold anomaly trends over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean associated with the so-called hiatus and some warm anomalies on its two sides in the east and west. This vertical and zonal distribution of the air temperature trends in the troposphere over the Pacific Ocean is consistent with the convection suppression over the central Pacific since 2000, implying a weakening of atmosphere and ocean coupling."

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -18.4:

[Steven]

Latest NMME multi-model ensemble forecast for Nino 3.4:


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/plume.html


June 2016:



August 2016:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -17.3:

[AbruptSLR]

The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom issued May 8 2016, indicating that the thin warm surface layer has restored its integrity in the past few days; which is supported by the second image of the Tropical Tidbits Daily Nino 3.4 index which is back into the moderate El Nino range.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -15.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following NOAA data issued for the week centered on May 4 2016, the Nino 3.4 remained constant at +0.8.  The first image shows the NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued May 8 2016, and the second image showing NOAA projection of the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for May 3 2016, both indicating relatively stable oceanic conditions compared to the prior week:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06APR2016     27.1 1.3     28.8 1.4     28.9 1.3     29.3 0.9
 13APR2016     25.6 0.1     28.6 1.2     29.1 1.3     29.3 0.8
 20APR2016     24.7-0.6     28.0 0.6     28.9 1.1     29.4 0.8
 27APR2016     24.7-0.3     27.7 0.4     28.7 0.8     29.5 0.9
 04MAY2016     25.1 0.4     27.6 0.4     28.6 0.8     29.5 0.8

The last two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 8 2016, showing that the weekly Nino 3.4 and the weekly IOD, respectively, remained relatively stable as compared to the prior week.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 8 2016, and they show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, and indicate relatively stable conditions as compared to last week.

[AbruptSLR]

The two attached images were issued today by NOAA, showing the Eq Pac Evolution for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  The both indicate slowly degrading El Nino conditions.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -14.4:

[Lord M Vader]

Is a major WWB about to emerge in the Indian Ocean with a rare formation of twin cyclones?! The ECMWF 00z run actually thinks so and develope two twin cyclones in a couple of days ahead. Of course, the Indian monsoon is about to set up in any day or so but twin cyclones?

We see them sometimes in the Western Pacific but this should be something extraordinary if twin cyclones would develope in the Indian Ocean! Or am I mistaken? Does anyone know how the OHC in the IO looks like right now? Should be quite high given the extraordinary high water temperatures there.

This is just pure speculation... What's your ideas about this?

WRT to the Pacific, in a day or so anomalously strong easterlies should start to emerge through virtually the whole Pacific basin. And the thin layer with warm water should shrink quite fast.

[AbruptSLR]

Per Cyclocane there are no suspected tropical storms in the Indian Ocean within the next 48-hours (see the first attached image):

http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/#sin

Per TAO (see the second attached image) the thin warm upper ocean layer in the Western Eq Pac is still intact.

[Tor Bejnar]

There are some tropical development possibilities in the Indian Ocean, according to Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product (Edit:  this graphic is 'live', so it changes every day.  Possible development is more likely on May 13 than it was on May 10.)

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -14.2:

[Tor Bejnar]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -14.2:

AbruptSLR or others:  Do you think the SOI going up (this time) is associated with the final demise of the El Nino?  Or do you see the possibility of events prolonging El Nino into June?

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -14.2:

AbruptSLR or others:  Do you think the SOI going up (this time) is associated with the final demise of the El Nino?  Or do you see the possibility of events prolonging El Nino into June?

I assume that you are considering the weekly NOAA Nino 3.4 value as determining the "demise of the El Nino" as the ONI will likely indicate El Nino conditions until at least MJJ.  As LMV has indicated not only is the SOI going up now, but also the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast (see for image from May 11 to 18 2016) indicates easterly wind anoms; and the second attached image shows the NCPB (bias corrected) MJO forecast from May 10 to 24 2016, indicating that for this period the MJO should be disruptive to El Nino conditions.  That said the third image shows the location of the Nino Regions indicating that the Nino 3.4 is from 170W to 120W; while the fourth attached image shows that the warm surface layer (indicated by the TAO Eq Pac Temp and Temp Anom profiles issued May 11 2016) is nearly centered on this 170W to 120W region. 

Therefore, to answer your question, I suspect that the weekly NOAA Nino 3.4 will remain above +0.5 at least through June 11 2016, and whether it lasts after that depends on whether the active phase of the MJO moves aggressively from the Maritime Continent into the Western Pacific (where it becomes constructive to El Nino conditions) and then possibly on to the International Dateline by July where it might (or might not) generate WWBs.

[Tor Bejnar]

Thanks, AbruptSLR, for sharing your suspicions. 

[Lord M Vader]

Just some adds to yesterdays post about the possibility of twin TCs in Indian Ocean. Tweet no 2-4 from Levi Cowan are clearly the most intersting of them all. An earlier run from GFS at May 7 even had a double pair of twin cyclones in IO - no URL link to that as it is "old news"(!) The last tweet from MJ Ventrice consider yesterdays ECMWF EPS forecast for the wind anomalies at 850 hPa.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/729829103466057733

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/730438334938554368

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/729025363913940995

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/728643797467340801

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/729733481492787200

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/729828765925310465

And finally a very interesting article with link to the new study " http://research.noaa.gov/News/NewsArchive/LatestNews/TabId/684/ArtMID/1768/ArticleID/11723/Leftover-warm-water-in-Pacific-Ocean-fueled-massive-El-Ni241o.aspx

At the following URL you find the full article from Geophysical Research Letters where you can download a pdf: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069204/abstract

Best, LMV

[Michael Hauber]

The trade wind surge which is now underway will be the final demise of the el nino.  Nino 3.4 should easily be under el nino threshold by the end of May,

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -14.0:

[Steven]

According to today's update from CPC: 

La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -13.8:

[Lord M Vader]

Latest analysis from Joint Typhoon Warning Center reveals that there are two area of invests in the Indian Ocean. Courtesy: Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

[Lord M Vader]

According  to Emily Becker at NOAA, the subsurface temps in the Pacific during March-April was the second coolest, only trailing behind 1998. All of the six springs with the coolest temperature anomalies were followed by La Nina.

The whole text can be read at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2016-el-niñola-niña-update-switcheroo

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -12.7:

[Lord M Vader]

According to earth.nullschool.net and joint typhoon warning center there are now two twin cyclones in the Indian Ocean. They are right now located at 6N and 7,5S and are generating strong westerlies. It remains to see if they will evolve to a TD or TS.



Best, LMV

[AbruptSLR]

The following is the Cyclocane report on these two Indian Ocean TDs:

North Indian Ocean
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 86.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 83.8E, APPROXIMATELY 257 NM SOUTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ENHANCED BY A STRONG
WESTERLY SURGE ALONG THE EQUATOR. A 131147Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE BROAD LLCC WITH LIMITED CONVECTION.
THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

South Indian Ocean
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1S 79.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7S 82.9E, APPROXIMATELY 317 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
SHALLOW CONVECTION, EVIDENT ON THE 131106Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. RECENT MOSAIC ASCAT PASSES SHOW A WELL DEFINED BUT
BROAD LLCC WITH A STRONG 30 KNOT WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE
EQUATOR THAT IS ENHANCING CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
BUT HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[AbruptSLR]

The first image shows the TAO 5-day Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom issued May 14 2016, showing that the thin warm surface layer in the Nino 3.4 region is being meaningfully degraded.

The second image shows the ECMM MJO forecast from May 14 to 28 2016; showing that the MJO is currently disruptive to El Nino conditions; but soon will be moving into the Maritime Continent.

On the face of this, it is possible that the weekly NOAA Nino 3.4 may fall into the neutral range before the end of May; but I will be interested in seeing whether the active phase of the MJO makes it to the Equatorial International Dateline towards the end of June with any strength.

[Sigmetnow]

Mangroves die-off in Queensland's Gulf Country and Limmen Bight 'may be due to warmer oceans'

Experts have been focusing on hundreds of kilometres of mangroves along the coast of Karumba in Queensland's Gulf Country and at Limmen Bight in the Northern Territory that have turned a ghostly white.

"It appears to coincide with a period of hot water in the southern Gulf, but we need more evidence," Professor Norm Duke from Queensland's James Cook University said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-10/mangroves-die-off-along-coast-of-qld-gulf-country-limmin-bight/7400626

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot, and following data, issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has move up to -11.8:

20160414,20160513,-11.8

[AbruptSLR]

The linked article discusses why NOAA forecasts a 75% chance for La Nina conditions by the Fall of 2016, which are primarily the extant cool deep water across the Eq Pac, statistics & dynamic models:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2016-el-ni%C3%B1ola-ni%C3%B1a-update-switcheroo


Extract: "In short, all La Niña events in our record have started within two years of an El Niño. (But not all El Niño events are followed by La Niña.) El Niño does not have a similar rule, as several of the 23 El Niños on record have started four or more years after the last La Niña.

La Niña events often last longer than El Niño events. Only once on record has El Niño lasted through two straight winters, 1986-1988, but it has happened with La Niña three times. The La Niña event that followed the 1997/98 El Niño lasted for thirty-three months, through three winters!"

[AbruptSLR]

The following is the latest Cyclocane forecast for the two TDs in the Indian Ocean:

"North Indian Ocean
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 83.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 83.9E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
140815Z ATMS NPP 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT ORGANIZED AND
ENHANCED FLARING CONVECTION ABOUT A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EVIDENT ON MOST RECENT SCAT PASSES. THE
DISTURBANCE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT
SUPPORTED BY A POINT SOURCE NEARLY OVERHEAD, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

South Indian Ocean
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7S 82.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2S 85.9E, APPROXIMATELY 736 NM NORTHWEST OF
COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHED
FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD AND ELONGATED LLCC, EVIDENT ON A
PARTIAL RAPIDSCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH VERY HIGH (20 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW."

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -11.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data NOAA's Nino 3.4 for the week centered on May 11 2016 drifted down to +0.6; which was confirmed by the first attached image from the BoM showing the Nino 3.4 index for the week ending May 15 2016; while the second attached image shows that the IOD remained neutral for the same period.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06APR2016     27.1 1.3     28.8 1.4     28.9 1.3     29.3 0.9
 13APR2016     25.6 0.1     28.6 1.2     29.1 1.3     29.3 0.8
 20APR2016     24.7-0.6     28.0 0.6     28.9 1.1     29.4 0.8
 27APR2016     24.7-0.3     27.7 0.4     28.7 0.8     29.5 0.9
 04MAY2016     25.1 0.4     27.6 0.4     28.6 0.8     29.5 0.8
 11MAY2016     24.9 0.5     27.6 0.4     28.4 0.6     29.4 0.6

The third & fourth images were issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac Evolution for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  These indicate that our current weak El Nino event might say above the +0.5 threshold for a few more weeks, or alternatively, could drop down into the neutral range as early as next week.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 15 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They confirm that our current weak El Nino is gradually degrading:

[AbruptSLR]

The first image shows NOAA Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom modeled values for May 8 2016, showing that the thin surface layer near the Nino 3.4 region is partially in the +0.5 to +1.0 range and is apparently degrading.

The second image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued today, indicating that the long awaited trough may be occurring now.

The third image shows the ECMM MJO forecast from May 15 to 29 2016; showing that the MJO is now disruptive to El Nino conditions.

The fourth image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from May 16 to 23 2016, showing that we are in a period of intensifying trade winds (which will continue to degrade the thin warm surface layer).

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot issued today by TAO shows the 5-day Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles.  These indicate that the Nino 3.4 index could become neutral next week.

[Bruce Steele]

PDO index is out for April.  2.62

[AbruptSLR]

PDO index is out for April.  2.62

Seems rather high to me, but I am not in a place where I can check the PDO records.

Separately, per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -9.7:

[AbruptSLR]

PDO index is out for April.  2.62

Seems rather high to me, but I am not in a place where I can check the PDO records.

When I scanned back through the record I only found four values that were higher and they all occurred from October 1955 to Feb 1956 in the following order: -2.80  -3.08  -2.75 -2.48  -2.74

[Sleepy]

Those PDO values were on the negative side ASLR, there are some even lower.

The following are the ones I found to be higher (and later):
1936 Nov 2.65
1941 Jun 3.01
1941 Aug 3.31
1983 Jul  3.51
1987 Aug 2.83
1993 Aug 2.69
1997 Jun 2.76
1997 Aug 2.79

So April 2016 is the earliest and highest April ever and we are now up to 28 consecutive months of positive values.

[AbruptSLR]

Those PDO values were on the negative side ASLR, there are some even lower.

The following are the ones I found to be higher (and later):
1936 Nov 2.65
1941 Jun 3.01
1941 Aug 3.31
1983 Jul  3.51
1987 Aug 2.83
1993 Aug 2.69
1997 Jun 2.76
1997 Aug 2.79

So April 2016 is the earliest and highest April ever and we are now up to 28 consecutive months of positive values.

Thanks for the update & per the attached Tropical Tidbits SSTA plot for May 17 2016, it is easy to see why the PDO is so positive and why the current El Nino is degrading.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -8.7:

[AbruptSLR]

The first image shows NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued May 18 2016.
The second image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom issued May 18 2016.
Collectively, these two images indicate that the deep cool water is starting to dissipate together with the think warm surface layer.  It will be interesting to see if we have a soft landing into neutral conditions and avoid La Nina conditions later this year.

The third image shows the NCPE MJO forecast from May 18 to June 1 2016, showing that the active phase of the MJO has moved into the Maritime Continent, and if forecast to weaken rapidly in about a weeks time.

[AbruptSLR]

Per Cyclocane TC 01B has now formed in the North Indian Ocean, and per the attached image is now dropping some rainfall on Southeastern India:


 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 180600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.2N 81.5E, APPROXIMATELY 84 NM NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

[Sigmetnow]

A look back at what has happened in the past when a La Niña followed a strong El Niño.

El Niño to La Niña years
http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/05/el-nino-to-la-nina-years.html

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data and attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average has moved down to -9.3:

20160418,20160517,-9.3