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binntho

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #900 on: September 11, 2016, 08:43:09 AM »
Grant Foster's* recent blog has some interesting graphs. One shows that annual average extent places 2016 as lowest on record - not sure how robust that is considering that 1/4 of the year is still to go.

Another graph shows the annual average extent for September through August, again placing 2016 lowest on record.

* At least that's what I think his name is!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #901 on: September 11, 2016, 04:20:10 PM »
Update for the week to September 10th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,137,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,160,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -2,159,000km2, an increase from -2,136,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +100,000km2, an increase from +85,000km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -26.3k/day, compared to the long term average of -23.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -28.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -1.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -2.2k/day.



The extent change so far this September is the 6th most negative on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, an increase of less than 1.4k/day is required (requiring ~+0.8k/day with with single day values), while the largest gain requires an increase of at least 55.2k/day (>+60k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 26.4k/day (increase of 28.1k/day with single day values).

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #902 on: September 12, 2016, 08:05:17 PM »
5 day NSIDC extent crept upward by 2k yesterday, so the likely minimum will be 4.137 million km2 from September 10th.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Tealight

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #903 on: September 13, 2016, 11:42:27 PM »
Wipneus Server updates the files again, but I guess he doesn't have enough time for posting. I used his "NSIDC-Area" values for the exact numbers and a concentration map from my own calculations. I leave all CT-Area values to him because I don't keep any records of them.

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« Last Edit: September 14, 2016, 10:02:36 AM by Tealight »

weatherdude88

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #904 on: September 14, 2016, 12:59:06 AM »
5 day NSIDC extent crept upward by 2k yesterday, so the likely minimum will be 4.137 million km2 from September 10th.

The NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent minimum was September 7th, 2016 with a value of 4.083*10^6 KM^2.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt_v2.csv

The 4.137 million KM^2 value was on September 9th, 2016. 4.083 is less than 4.137, and September 7th is before September 9th. Therefore the minimum was on the 7th.

« Last Edit: September 14, 2016, 01:17:05 AM by weatherdude88 »

oren

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #905 on: September 14, 2016, 07:35:08 AM »
Dude, there's a difference between the 5-day average and the daily value.

weatherdude88

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #906 on: September 14, 2016, 03:00:31 PM »
I was aware of the 5 day trailing mean, however unaware it was used for the NSIDC minimum northern hemisphere sea ice extent value. It appears NSIDC does calculate their minimum/maximum values form a 5 day trailing mean. My apologies BornFromTheVoid, I  am expecting NSIDC to shortly release a press release with a minimum of  4.14*10^6 KM^2.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #907 on: September 14, 2016, 03:12:34 PM »
I was aware of the 5 day trailing mean, however unaware it was used for the NSIDC minimum northern hemisphere sea ice extent value. It appears NSIDC does calculate their minimum/maximum values form a 5 day trailing mean. My apologies BornFromTheVoid, I  am expecting NSIDC to shortly release a press release with a minimum of  4.14*10^6 KM^2.

It will take time for me to get over it, but apology accepted :P ;)

Anywho, extent climbing steadily. Another spike in the single day NSIDC values, up 105k from the previous day, and 258k from the minimum.
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Wipneus

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #908 on: September 14, 2016, 06:24:47 PM »
Somewhat back after some really demanding days. Still a lot of work to be done, I do not expect to be able to spend as much time on sea ice in the next few weeks.

The shadow CT-area list is long and starts with my last reported value:


day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Sun 2016.6712  -99.5  2.603708  -29.8 14.647700  -129.3 17.251408
Mon 2016.6740   -2.0  2.601659  +43.0 14.690724   +41.0 17.292383
Tue 2016.6767  -37.2  2.564411  +53.7 14.744389   +16.4 17.308800
Wed 2016.6795  -67.0  2.497429  -17.4 14.727029   -84.3 17.224458
Thu 2016.6822  +13.1  2.510527  +25.6 14.752651   +38.7 17.263178
Fri 2016.6849  -70.8  2.439705  -27.9 14.724760   -98.7 17.164465
Sat 2016.6877  -18.7  2.421044  -45.6 14.679140   -64.3 17.100184
Sun 2016.6904  +86.6  2.507634  -97.9 14.581216   -11.3 17.088850
Mon 2016.6932 +107.9  2.615578 -132.2 14.448970   -24.3 17.064548
Tue 2016.6959  +56.8  2.672352 -134.9 14.314039   -78.2 16.986391
Wed 2016.6986  +42.1  2.714482  -79.1 14.234904   -37.0 16.949386
Thu 2016.7014  +69.5  2.783944  -87.9 14.146970   -18.5 16.930914



As you may have guessed, it is the CAB that caused most of these changes, today it increased by +59k.

Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.3414 an increase of +105.3k since yesterday. CAB changed +51k with Kara (+20k) and CAA (+15k) following.

Also resuming the daily delta map, showing these data in another way.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #909 on: September 14, 2016, 06:55:48 PM »
Welcome back Wipneus! :D You have been missed! Hope the move did well!

Now, while the melting season is over here, I have to ask how usual two century breaks in a row are in September for Antarctica where the maximum should be reached soon? The highest value so far from Antarctica according to NSIDC occurred at August 31. While not very likely, if the current downward trend continues around Antarctica we might see a record early maximum there!

Best, LMV

Iceismylife

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #910 on: September 14, 2016, 07:46:25 PM »
I've been meaning to ask how usual or unusual is the weather around Antarctica?

https://www.windyty.com/?pressure,-90.000,-106.370,0


Neven

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #911 on: September 14, 2016, 10:11:52 PM »
Good to have you back, Wip!
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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #912 on: September 15, 2016, 02:21:33 PM »
A warm welcome back Wipneus. I've got an extra special present for you:

"Shock News! The Worms Have Turned!!"

Anthony Watts has given pride of place to one of your graphs! Without proper attribution of course. My request for that to be corrected is lying on his cutting room floor.

Make sure to read below the fold too.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Wipneus

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #913 on: September 15, 2016, 06:16:03 PM »
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Wed 2016.6986  +42.1  2.714482  -79.1 14.234904   -37.0 16.949386
Thu 2016.7014  +70.0  2.784468  -87.9 14.147036   -17.9 16.931504
Fri 2016.7041  +91.9  2.876399 -106.2 14.040838   -14.3 16.917237
Sat 2016.7068   +9.0  2.885444  -15.9 14.024950    -6.8 16.910394


None of the regions had a significant change in area.

Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.3569 an increase of +15.4k. The CAA extent increased +29k.

The attached daily delta map shows the details. Some retreat on the Atlantic front?

Jim Hunt

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #914 on: September 15, 2016, 09:02:40 PM »
Mr. Watts (or a "mod") has now grudgingly given you a link Wipneus.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Wipneus

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #915 on: September 16, 2016, 05:37:56 PM »
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Thu 2016.7014  +70.0  2.784468  -87.9 14.147036   -17.9 16.931504
Fri 2016.7041  +91.9  2.876399 -106.2 14.040838   -14.3 16.917237
Sat 2016.7068   +9.3  2.885739  -16.0 14.024881    -6.6 16.910620
Sun 2016.7096  -77.1  2.808618 +140.6 14.165487   +63.5 16.974105


It is all in the CAB: -73k.

Shadow NSIDC extent calculated 4.378.3  increasing +21.4k. The CAB increased +28k, the CAA counted -27k less than yesterday.

The attached delta map shows the data in another way. The drop in concentration in the CAB is rather obvious, showing the freezing season has not taken over completely yet.

Wipneus

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #916 on: September 17, 2016, 03:31:24 PM »
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Fri 2016.7041  +91.9  2.876399 -106.2 14.040838   -14.3 16.917237
Sat 2016.7068   +9.3  2.885739  -16.0 14.024881    -6.6 16.910620
Sun 2016.7096  -77.1  2.808618 +140.6 14.165487   +63.5 16.974105
Mon 2016.7123  -17.8  2.790801  -36.7 14.128805   -54.5 16.919606

The CAB changed most: -21k, "Lakes" dropped -15k.

Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.3626 dropping -15.7k. In the CAB -55k was lost but the CAA gained +29k.

The gains and losses are shown graphically in the attached delta map.

seaicesailor

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #917 on: September 18, 2016, 05:32:59 PM »
Month-to-date average of NSIDC daily extent. The official NSIDC September extent is not calculated as an average of the daily data, but serve as a comparison.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2016, 05:56:20 PM by seaicesailor »

Neven

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #918 on: September 18, 2016, 05:54:26 PM »
That's a great graph, sis. Thanks.
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Wipneus

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #919 on: September 18, 2016, 07:19:36 PM »
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Sat 2016.7068   +9.3  2.885739  -16.0 14.024881    -6.6 16.910620
Sun 2016.7096  -77.1  2.808618 +140.6 14.165487   +63.5 16.974105
Mon 2016.7123  -17.8  2.790801  -36.6 14.128842   -54.5 16.919643
Tue 2016.7151  +25.1  2.815884  +50.3 14.179100   +75.3 16.994984


Regionally, CAB increased +31k, Greenland Sea dropped -18k.

Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.3087 down -53.8k from yesterday. Funny no (net) change in the CAB, but Kara dropped -22k and Laptev -16k.

Some things better seen in the attached delta map, like the extent drop in the Wrangel arm balancing an extent growth in the ESS bite.

A-Team

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #920 on: September 18, 2016, 11:02:17 PM »
Quote
better seen in the attached delta map, like the extent drop in the Wrangel arm
Right. Another view below. See also cross-post

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1493.msg90118.html#msg90118

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #921 on: September 19, 2016, 09:58:51 AM »
Update for the week to September 17th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,350,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,309,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,937,000km2, a decrease from -2,159,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +328,000km2, an increase from +85,000km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, down from 2nd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +30.3k/day, compared to the long term average of -1.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -2.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +21.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +18.5k/day.



The extent change so far this September is the 10th least negative on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, an drop of at least 14.2k/day is required (requiring -13.1k/day with with single day values), while the largest gain requires an increase of at least 68.6k/day (>+84.6k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 24.3k/day (increase of +32.4k/day with single day values).

« Last Edit: September 21, 2016, 08:17:25 AM by BornFromTheVoid »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #922 on: September 19, 2016, 05:18:03 PM »
Does this mean that 1991 or 1992 had the greatest September loss and the other of the two had the greatest September gain?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Iceismylife

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #923 on: September 19, 2016, 05:41:35 PM »
Does this mean that 1991 or 1992 had the greatest September loss and the other of the two had the greatest September gain?
Yes but the ice that melted then is long gone now. The ice back then had easy to melt ice left in Sept. none now.

Wipneus

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #924 on: September 19, 2016, 07:42:21 PM »
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Sun 2016.7096  -77.1  2.808618 +140.6 14.165487   +63.5 16.974105
Mon 2016.7123  -17.8  2.790801  -36.6 14.128842   -54.5 16.919643
Tue 2016.7151  +25.1  2.815884  +50.4 14.179234   +75.5 16.995118
Wed 2016.7178  +39.3  2.855153  -17.4 14.161875   +21.9 17.017028


Regional area in the CAB dropped -25k.

Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.4345 increasing +125.7k. CAB increased most (+75k), followed by Kara (19k).

Attached is the delta map that goes with these numbers.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #925 on: September 19, 2016, 07:45:16 PM »
Does this mean that 1991 or 1992 had the greatest September loss and the other of the two had the greatest September gain?
Yes but the ice that melted then is long gone now. The ice back then had easy to melt ice left in Sept. none now.

Barents,  Bering and Okhotsk Seas, and likely Hudson Bay

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #926 on: September 20, 2016, 12:36:12 AM »
Does this mean that 1991 or 1992 had the greatest September loss and the other of the two had the greatest September gain?

I messed up that legend pretty badly! 1992 had the max and 1991 had the minimum. I'll edit the post in the morning
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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #927 on: September 20, 2016, 06:41:34 PM »
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Mon 2016.7123  -17.8  2.790801  -36.6 14.128842   -54.5 16.919643
Tue 2016.7151  +25.1  2.815884  +50.4 14.179234   +75.5 16.995118
Wed 2016.7178  +39.0  2.854910  -17.6 14.161644   +21.4 17.016554
Thu 2016.7205  -23.0  2.831861  -33.5 14.128095   -56.6 16.959956


Regional area in the CAB dropped -39k.

Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.4952M increasing +60.8k. Regional changes: CAB (+25k), Laptev (+21k) and CAA (+19k).

See also the attached delta map.

Wipneus

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #928 on: September 21, 2016, 04:28:31 PM »
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Tue 2016.7151  +25.1  2.815884  +50.4 14.179234   +75.5 16.995118
Wed 2016.7178  +39.0  2.854910  -17.6 14.161644   +21.4 17.016554
Thu 2016.7205  -23.1  2.831830  -33.4 14.128237   -56.5 16.960067
Fri 2016.7233  +40.2  2.871983  +35.6 14.163865   +75.8 17.035848


Regional area in the CAB increased by +48k, a drop in the CAA was -19k.

Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.5328M an increase of +37.6k. Here we have regional increases in the CAB (+59k) and Baffin (+19k), while extent in the CAA dropped -44k.

The precise location of these changes can be seen in the attached delta map.

Jim Hunt

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #929 on: September 21, 2016, 04:35:44 PM »
Coronation Gulf is suddenly full of sea ice? Surely not! And not according to AMSR2 either.
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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #930 on: September 22, 2016, 12:25:12 AM »
That's a great graph, sis. Thanks.
Thanks to you.
As a continuation, the 2016 month-to date average has just passed the 2007 value. This is 4.26 M km2 approx. Since current daily extent is above 4.5 M km2, 2016 will finish as the 3rd lowest NSIDC September extent. It seems unlikely that 2016 will end up above 2011 or 2015 (again the average of daily extents is not the way NSIDC monthly extent is computed, but should not differ very much)

The final extent is very much pointing toward Andrew Slater's 4.4 M km2 prediction.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2016, 08:27:14 AM by seaicesailor »

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #931 on: September 22, 2016, 05:24:34 PM »
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Wed 2016.7178  +39.0  2.854910  -17.6 14.161644   +21.4 17.016554
Thu 2016.7205  -23.1  2.831830  -33.4 14.128237   -56.5 16.960067
Fri 2016.7233  +39.9  2.871713  +35.8 14.163999   +75.6 17.035712
Sat 2016.7260  +44.7  2.916365  +67.4 14.231360  +112.0 17.147725


All the CAB: +57k.

Shadow NSIDC extent is now  4.5765M  increasing +43.7k. There is an increase of +33k in the CAB, the Hudson joined with +21k. Baffin decrease -20k.

As alway there is the delta map. The decrease in the Baffin region can be seen (in red) to be actually in the Nares Strait, Kane Basin.


Wipneus

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #932 on: September 23, 2016, 06:55:58 PM »
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Thu 2016.7205  -23.1  2.831830  -33.4 14.128237   -56.5 16.960067
Fri 2016.7233  +39.9  2.871717  +35.8 14.163987   +75.6 17.035704
Sat 2016.7260  +54.4  2.926150  +78.7 14.242705  +133.2 17.168855
Sun 2016.7288  +86.4  3.012559  -72.6 14.170153   +13.9 17.182712

CAB rules: +98k

Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.6272M increasing  +34.4k. CAB increased +56k, Hudson dropped -19k.

The attached delta map goes with these numbers.

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #933 on: September 23, 2016, 07:05:33 PM »
Coronation Gulf is flashing red/blue/red!
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #934 on: September 23, 2016, 07:30:35 PM »
Re Coronation Gulf flashing different colours---

so are the Great Lakes, and I'm pretty sure there's not much ice around there yet! ;)

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #935 on: September 23, 2016, 08:00:18 PM »
What I find most interesting right now is Wipneus predictions about Antarctica. If the current sea ice extent don't reach above 18,5 Million km2 until the real melting season begins we will have a record early maximum for Antarctica according to NSIDC data  8) The 5-day average maximum   had its first peak at August 31 but the maximum daily value was 18,518 Mn km2 at August 28. The earliest date for the maximum so far is September 3 (happened 1994) while the latest maximum occurred at October 12 (happened 2002).

Best, LMV

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #936 on: September 24, 2016, 12:17:30 AM »
Interesting. That means the NSDIC Antarctic data has a pretty good chance of beating either the earliest or latest maximum this year. It could still beat its August 28 max, and then fall again before Oct 12, but that's a pretty narrow window.

Of course, now I've said that, it's exactly what's going to happen.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #937 on: September 24, 2016, 10:33:38 AM »
Yes, it's a narrow window. Interestingly, from NSIDC charctic data, only one year have seen an increase of more than 440K from now and up to the maximum. This happened last year which saw an increase of 570K from September 26 to the maximum at October 6 which is a very remarkable increase!




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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #938 on: September 24, 2016, 03:34:03 PM »
Daily NSIDC extent has now leaped up to 7th lowest, with an increase of 187k. This means that the increase to minimum to September 23rd is the largest on record for the NSIDC series.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #939 on: September 24, 2016, 06:32:12 PM »
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Fri 2016.7233  +39.9  2.871717  +35.8 14.163987   +75.6 17.035704
Sat 2016.7260  +54.4  2.926150  +78.7 14.242705  +133.2 17.168855
Sun 2016.7288  +86.0  3.012128  -72.5 14.170194   +13.5 17.182322
Mon 2016.7315 +146.4  3.158576  -79.9 14.090275   +66.5 17.248851


Still mostly a CAB thing: +105k.

Shadow NSIDC extent is 4.8139M increasing +186.8k. The regions were CAB (+136k), Baffin (+26k) and Greenland Sea (+17k).

The daily delta map is there as always.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #940 on: September 24, 2016, 06:56:59 PM »
Shit, another+250K in just two days! But Antarctica seems to go down anyhow..

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #941 on: September 25, 2016, 04:50:22 AM »
I'm ready to call the areal melt is over. ;) ::) :P 8)

Friday the ninth of September (00-06 AM, if there's a need for a more accurate time, this could be estimated, but I'd rather not do that, to save some semblance of trustworthiness) , is also my result for the NH 2016 bottom value, that was pretty much exactly 2,500000Mkm2. This just to provide the accuracy some need to be convinced Greenland is losing ice. As I personally do not know this kind of people, and also actively avoid being in contact with this kind of people, there's no harm in stating a bit overtly confident statements that are pretty much there abouts, no? (no, I'm not a working scientist)

As can be seen from the graph, this years minimum was a fast event (lasted about twelve dayz, whereas f.e. the effect of greenhouse gasses lasts about 365.2524 days/year) and the last melt and the start of refreeze have been very fast, looking at weekly averages with biweekly lines (the x-axis starts at noon, Thu 22th August by Wipneus' numbers and ends some days ago :P ) at an obscure rational (1/16th) number y-scale.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2016, 09:42:20 AM by Pmt111500 »

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #942 on: September 25, 2016, 07:58:48 AM »
Under different circumstances, this would have been a terrible year for the ice. Thanks to cloudy conditions during peak insolation and an early re-freeze it doesn't look quite as bad. Yet still significant enough to earn second place in most indices. At some point, maybe next year, our luck will run out.

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #943 on: September 25, 2016, 04:27:07 PM »
Update for the week to September 24th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,690,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,899,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,747,000km2, a decrease from -1,937,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +539,000km2, an increase from +328,000km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, down from 3rd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +48.6k/day, compared to the long term average of +21.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +18.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +50.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +37.8k/day.



The extent change so far this September is the 4th most positive on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, a drop of at least 87.4k/day is required (requiring -183.4k/day with with single day values), while the largest gain requires an increase of at least 98.7k/day (>+85.2k/day with single day values) and an average change requires a drop of 4.1k/day (drop of 58.5k/day with single day values).

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #944 on: September 25, 2016, 06:48:40 PM »
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Sat 2016.7260  +54.4  2.926150  +78.7 14.242705  +133.2 17.168855
Sun 2016.7288  +86.0  3.012128  -72.5 14.170194   +13.5 17.182322
Mon 2016.7315 +146.7  3.158876  -79.8 14.090376   +66.9 17.249252
Tue 2016.7342 +114.4  3.273263  -26.1 14.064277   +88.3 17.337540


Mostly in the CAB: +97k.

Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.8988M increasing +84.9k. Here the CAB did +69k, ESS increased +16k.

The daily delta map is attached as usual.

magnamentis

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #945 on: September 25, 2016, 09:58:00 PM »
Under different circumstances, this would have been a terrible year for the ice. Thanks to cloudy conditions during peak insolation and an early re-freeze it doesn't look quite as bad. Yet still significant enough to earn second place in most indices. At some point, maybe next year, our luck will run out.

i would not be surprised if this year would take first place in:

a) yearly average ice cover

b) after an IMO imminent correction in volume ( that's my two cents, can't provide anything more )

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #946 on: September 26, 2016, 06:12:59 PM »
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Sun 2016.7288  +86.0  3.012128  -72.5 14.170194   +13.5 17.182322
Mon 2016.7315 +146.7  3.158876  -79.8 14.090376   +66.9 17.249252
Tue 2016.7342 +114.5  3.273354  -26.1 14.064306   +88.4 17.337660
Wed 2016.7370  +77.9  3.351284  +73.4 14.137675  +151.3 17.488959


CAB does it: +51k.

Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.9159M  increasing +17.1k. The CAB increased +20k, the CAA dropped -23k.

The daily change in sea ice can be seen in the the attached delta map.



Wipneus

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #947 on: September 26, 2016, 06:20:27 PM »
Sea ice measured by NSIDC has extent still at the 7th place. My calculated area however is relatively very low, now at the third place after 2012 and 2007.

           NSIDC Area     
2013-09-25 4.011862
2014-09-25 4.005278
2009-09-25 3.919267
2015-09-25 3.673415
2010-09-25 3.629368
2011-09-25 3.549183
2008-09-25 3.502448
2016-09-25 3.353197
2007-09-25 3.072588
2012-09-25 2.609910


Wipneus

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #948 on: September 27, 2016, 06:16:27 PM »
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Mon 2016.7315 +146.7  3.158876  -79.8 14.090376   +66.9 17.249252
Tue 2016.7342 +114.5  3.273354  -26.1 14.064306   +88.4 17.337660
Wed 2016.7370  +78.0  3.351381  +73.3 14.137631  +151.4 17.489012
Thu 2016.7397  +75.5  3.426928   -2.7 14.134887   +72.8 17.561815


CAB: +39k, ESS: +18k.

Shadow NSIDC etxent is now 5.0711 leaping +155.2k. ESS: +59k, CAB: +47k and CAA: +38k.

The growth of the ice extent can be also observed on the attached delta map.

Wipneus

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Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #949 on: September 29, 2016, 01:22:33 PM »
Data came in late, this is yesterday's report.

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Tue 2016.7342 +114.5  3.273354  -26.1 14.064306   +88.4 17.337660
Wed 2016.7370  +78.0  3.351381  +73.3 14.137631  +151.4 17.489012
Thu 2016.7397  +75.4  3.426748   -3.2 14.134479   +72.2 17.561227
Fri 2016.7425  +60.2  3.486950 -183.5 13.950943  -123.3 17.437893


CAB: +51k, ESS: +15k, Laptev: +15k, Greenland Sea -15k.

Shadow NSIDC extent was 5.1430M increase of  +71.9k. CAB +51k, ESS+40k, CAA: -19k.

The delta map is attached.