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Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2600 on: June 26, 2016, 09:08:06 AM »
Thanks jdallen.
We've seen that land-fast ice along the ESS shore go through a sustained 'torching' period with extreme heat coming from the snow-free Siberian lands from the end of May deep into June, and it seems it is finally caving in...
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plinius

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2601 on: June 26, 2016, 12:07:48 PM »
Would point out that the lakes near the coast are usually are good indicator. You can't expect coastal ice to get into trouble before the lake-ice disappears (coastal ice has been piled up, and it has a larger area to form a local, protecting temperature inversion).

Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2602 on: June 26, 2016, 03:11:33 PM »
Thanks jdallen.
We've seen that land-fast ice along the ESS shore go through a sustained 'torching' period with extreme heat coming from the snow-free Siberian lands from the end of May deep into June, and it seems it is finally caving in...
I am trying to put some more quantitative information on the thread http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,890.msg79159.html#msg79159
if you can point to a more descriptive source than "sustained period of extreme heat" please contribute it

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2603 on: June 26, 2016, 10:41:47 PM »
Help, I'm slipping into the twighlight zone.
Leaving the Arctic, Entering the Greenland Sea.  One way ticket.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2016, 10:54:21 PM by Tigertown »
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AmbiValent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2604 on: June 26, 2016, 10:53:35 PM »
So you passed the terminator, then?

Seriously, it would help if you wrote where that is. I just looked and found it on the NE corner of Greenland.
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Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2605 on: June 26, 2016, 11:02:27 PM »
yes that would be could if you could post a link Ambivalent, instead of letting me search... ;)
http://go.nasa.gov/296L2Uh

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2606 on: June 26, 2016, 11:21:15 PM »
An animation of Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
http://go.nasa.gov/28ZgKV4

Laurent

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2607 on: June 26, 2016, 11:35:25 PM »
.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2608 on: June 27, 2016, 12:06:46 AM »
I wonder if the massive cracks now separating the CAB from Greenland/Canada and the increasingly gaping amounts of open water appearing NE of Greenland are related to the significant E'ward movement of the CAB pack. In the same way a huge ship sinking can create suction, I would think the movement of the bulk of the ice pack's volume towards the ATL would result in some kind of forcing to replace what's lost in its wake.

Obviously we have already seen huge leads open "behind" the departing CAB, but the leads/cracks along the sides would also make sense as a reaction to so much of the pack being exported towards oblivion. Map for reference with possible next step in purple, at bottom.

It should also be noted that 2016 continues to look dramatically worse than any other year in the overall Arctic. Vs. 2012, we now lead substantially in Hudson/Baffin Bay as well -- the supposedly "easy ice" that hasn't melted out yet will allow 2016 to push even further ahead sometime in late July or early August, I think, even if a tiny bit remains through summer.

If 2012 got to an abysmal # without losing the integrity of the CAB by 7/1 then what is this pre-conditioning saying about 2016's potential?



« Last Edit: June 27, 2016, 12:15:41 AM by bbr2314 »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2609 on: June 27, 2016, 12:53:28 AM »
I second that emotion, that 2016 (for the overall Arctic) continues to look drastically worse. It looks, right now, like end of melt season ice, like the left overs that survived waiting for the re-freeze.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2610 on: June 27, 2016, 01:15:12 AM »
@ bbr2314 you show that massive transport toward the Atlantic precisely when the very same model you use indicates almost no export to Barentz or Fram for the coming days.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif
 Is your map is based on a longer range prediction, or on a hunch?
The red lines sorry don't make any sense to me. The drag induced by that supposedly sinking boat is insinificant to wind pull. Didn't we notice the effect of past storms?
@ Tigertown iirc the state of the ice at the end of the melting season varies much from season to season.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2611 on: June 27, 2016, 02:38:55 AM »
Have not seen any at the end of a season that looked much worse. However, was just making a general statement. Nothing for the textbooks, I will leave that to the big brains.
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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2612 on: June 27, 2016, 03:42:27 AM »
Drift to the Atlantic is forecast to be minimal for the next week.

Click to animate.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2613 on: June 27, 2016, 04:20:05 AM »
@ bbr2314 you show that massive transport toward the Atlantic precisely when the very same model you use indicates almost no export to Barentz or Fram for the coming days.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif
 Is your map is based on a longer range prediction, or on a hunch?
The red lines sorry don't make any sense to me. The drag induced by that supposedly sinking boat is insinificant to wind pull. Didn't we notice the effect of past storms?
@ Tigertown iirc the state of the ice at the end of the melting season varies much from season to season.
My map is based on what's happened over the past month... the export may not occur continuously but it has been ongoing. The drag/'red lines' would be because the volume of the ice in motion is so significant and something has to replace what has been displaced (i.e. open water)

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2614 on: June 27, 2016, 05:13:37 AM »
Not sure how the Arctic could be described as dramatically worse than 2012 at same date?

2016 leads in Beaufort with both open water, and how far the dispersed ice penetrate towards CAB.  The area of dispersed ice towards Laptev/CAB/ESS border is worse this year.  More open water in Laptev in 2012.  More open water in Kara, and penetration of dispersed ice towards CAB from Kara direction in 2012.  Similar border between CAB and Atlantic waters both years, but ice caught up against islands in 2012, and all ice around islands gone this year.  Maybe a slight lead to 2012 overall, which is reflected by 2012's small lead in ice extent.

But surface melt has lagged behind 2012, due to significantly cooler conditions since late May according to Slater's page.  In contrast 2012 had a major heat wave in early June.  This is reflected in the fact that area is currently only 3rd or 4th overall in area stat, and a good way behind 2012 on this measure.  2012 had a cool patch in late June, and currently MODIS channel 3-6-7 suggests area of surface melt is now similar for the two years, however lots of clouds both years make it quite hard to tell.  In 2012 ADS picks up large areas of reduced concentration that do not correspond to areas of dispersed ice visible in MODIS, and no such areas are visible this year.  I have found in the past that such areas are only picked up with sustained strong melting early in the season, and believe this reflects deeper melt ponding than exists this year.

From now 2012 enters a period of near record heat for early July.  With the lack of melt pond momentum this year it will be very hard for this year to keep up in this period, and unless we see similar extreme heat 2016 will fall a long way behind in area, and probably lose its extent lead as melting momentum begins to bite.  Late in July 2012 cools down, which I think is 2016's big chance to catch up.  Extent and area loss were still quite rapid during late July 2012, and I think this is a case of strong melt momentum built up by the 2012 pattern of early June heat, late June dispersal, early July more heat.  After that there is the GAC in early August, more strong heat in late August.  There was a reason 2012 smashed records, and there aren't too many weak periods for other years to gain ground.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2615 on: June 27, 2016, 05:40:15 AM »
Not sure how the Arctic could be described as dramatically worse than 2012 at same date?

2016 leads in Beaufort with both open water, and how far the dispersed ice penetrate towards CAB.  The area of dispersed ice towards Laptev/CAB/ESS border is worse this year.  More open water in Laptev in 2012.  More open water in Kara, and penetration of dispersed ice towards CAB from Kara direction in 2012.  Similar border between CAB and Atlantic waters both years, but ice caught up against islands in 2012, and all ice around islands gone this year.  Maybe a slight lead to 2012 overall, which is reflected by 2012's small lead in ice extent.

But surface melt has lagged behind 2012, due to significantly cooler conditions since late May according to Slater's page.  In contrast 2012 had a major heat wave in early June.  This is reflected in the fact that area is currently only 3rd or 4th overall in area stat, and a good way behind 2012 on this measure.  2012 had a cool patch in late June, and currently MODIS channel 3-6-7 suggests area of surface melt is now similar for the two years, however lots of clouds both years make it quite hard to tell.  In 2012 ADS picks up large areas of reduced concentration that do not correspond to areas of dispersed ice visible in MODIS, and no such areas are visible this year.  I have found in the past that such areas are only picked up with sustained strong melting early in the season, and believe this reflects deeper melt ponding than exists this year.

From now 2012 enters a period of near record heat for early July.  With the lack of melt pond momentum this year it will be very hard for this year to keep up in this period, and unless we see similar extreme heat 2016 will fall a long way behind in area, and probably lose its extent lead as melting momentum begins to bite.  Late in July 2012 cools down, which I think is 2016's big chance to catch up.  Extent and area loss were still quite rapid during late July 2012, and I think this is a case of strong melt momentum built up by the 2012 pattern of early June heat, late June dispersal, early July more heat.  After that there is the GAC in early August, more strong heat in late August.  There was a reason 2012 smashed records, and there aren't too many weak periods for other years to gain ground.

What are you talking about? You are confusing 925 temps with what is happening at the surface. Unless the ice sheet is at 925mb (it isn't), you should stop using these red herrings.




Okono

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2616 on: June 27, 2016, 06:32:59 AM »
What are you talking about? You are confusing 925 temps with what is happening at the surface. Unless the ice sheet is at 925mb (it isn't), you should stop using these red herrings.

Even beyond that, the ice itself is a massive buffer against changes in temperature in either direction.  Elevated temperatures could be just as likely a result of June ice melt, itself due to extraordinary insolation and melt ponding, rather than any causal or independent action.

I believe there are many people who have demonstrated extraordinarily low predictive skill of 80N+ temperatures at this time of year for melting.  An effective energy balance measure would be much more meaningful, but it's virtually impossible to calculate.  While the specific heat of H2O is obviously quite high, the energy for phase changes is enormous.

If I get to design the next universe, I'm taking out that ^&#@! huge dipole moment.  Just to see what happens.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2617 on: June 27, 2016, 06:35:23 AM »
What are you talking about? You are confusing 925 temps with what is happening at the surface. Unless the ice sheet is at 925mb (it isn't), you should stop using these red herrings.

Even beyond that, the ice itself is a massive buffer against changes in temperature in either direction.  Elevated temperatures could be just as likely a result of June ice melt, itself due to extraordinary insolation and melt ponding, rather than any causal or independent action.

An effective energy balance measure would be much more meaningful, but it's virtually impossible to calculate.  While the specific heat of H2O is obviously quite high, the energy for phase changes is enormous.

If I get to design the next universe, I'm taking out that ^&#@! huge dipole moment.  Just to see what happens.
I think the closest we can get to an effective energy balance measurement is the thread in this forum that tracks cumulative albedo anomalies... and per that data, 2016 is leaps and bounds ahead of all other years, having already surpassed the highest *cumulative* albedo imbalance through the *end of the year* for 2012 and all others.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1543.0.html

Okono

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2618 on: June 27, 2016, 06:40:02 AM »
I think the closest we can get to an effective energy balance measurement is the thread in this forum that tracks cumulative albedo anomalies... and per that data, 2016 is leaps and bounds ahead of all other years, having already surpassed the highest *cumulative* albedo imbalance through the *end of the year* for 2012 and all others.

{edited heavily after reading the thread}

Thanks for linking the thread.  I suspect you're right at first blush, but my gut feeling is still unsatisfied.  If it could have been demonstrated that convection is a consistently low energy player compared to radiation, that would make reliance on those measurements pretty sound, but it looks like the opposite was accomplished.

On first read, I don't see a lot of satisfying data comparing radiative energy to convection, but the ideas resonate.  Taking ballpark numbers from http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1543.msg78180.html#msg78180

... it looks like the only two really meaningful variables are atmospheric transport and radiative balance.  Though not proportional, I would characterize them as in the same ballpark and far beyond the other influences.

It does suggest that we should probably pay more attention to energy transport than we do, though, and we should not discount cyclonic weather's melting power.  Easy. orz

One other thought is whether spatial energy distribution within the Arctic differs based on the means of energy delivery.  I bet it differs significantly, and that it may be a component in our inability to untangle these more meaningfully.

A way to check that hunch would be to compare areas that receive high insolation to areas that receive high heat transport.

Has anyone ever done a longitudinal sector-by-sector check?  Think orange slices.  Even fully gridded, if there are any masochists with huge data sets out there.  Tealight used long-period data sets, but one might also be able to demonstrate something neat using weather conditions and different points in the Arctic over multiple discrete short periods of time.  Sun and anti-cyclone versus heat transport via humid advection.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2016, 07:42:52 AM by Okono »

6roucho

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2619 on: June 27, 2016, 07:11:07 AM »
@ bbr2314 you show that massive transport toward the Atlantic precisely when the very same model you use indicates almost no export to Barentz or Fram for the coming days.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif
 Is your map is based on a longer range prediction, or on a hunch?
The red lines sorry don't make any sense to me. The drag induced by that supposedly sinking boat is insinificant to wind pull. Didn't we notice the effect of past storms?
@ Tigertown iirc the state of the ice at the end of the melting season varies much from season to season.
My map is based on what's happened over the past month... the export may not occur continuously but it has been ongoing. The drag/'red lines' would be because the volume of the ice in motion is so significant and something has to replace what has been displaced (i.e. open water)
Please excuse my ignorance of the physics, but why should displaced ice have to be replaced by ice from elsewhere? Can't it simply remain as open water? Assuming, of course, that the forces that "split" the ice aren't acting equally on the adjoining ice, but then we wouldn't have a split.

Okono

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2620 on: June 27, 2016, 07:24:09 AM »
Please excuse my ignorance of the physics, but why should displaced ice have to be replaced by ice from elsewhere? Can't it simply remain as open water? Assuming, of course, that the forces that "split" the ice aren't acting equally on the adjoining ice, but then we wouldn't have a split.

I think that's exactly what he was saying: the area from which the ice was displaced can be left as open water at this time of year rather than freezing over again.  If this were, say, December, that ice transport would lead to much refreezing and static extent where the ice originated for an overall gain.

"Replace" was probably a poor choice of word.  Maybe, "immediate subsurface water is definitionally exposed when the ice that had covered it is exported, and it's likely to stay water rather than refreezing at this time of year."

Pressure equilibria do need to be maintained, so in the most pedantic sense, replace is probably true, but there's so much circulation and change in sea surface heights and everything else that I would prefer the latter sentence.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2016, 07:29:27 AM by Okono »

Paladiea

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2621 on: June 27, 2016, 07:39:59 AM »
Quote
Please excuse my ignorance of the physics, but why should displaced ice have to be replaced by ice from elsewhere? Can't it simply remain as open water? Assuming, of course, that the forces that "split" the ice aren't acting equally on the adjoining ice, but then we wouldn't have a split.

I believe what is being referred to here is the action of ice being dragged in the wake of the ice that's being displaced. Like how you can drag an object floating on water with your hand without touching it.

<edit Neven: I've released your profile now, Paladiea, so no more delays when posting comments>
« Last Edit: June 27, 2016, 09:55:14 AM by Neven »
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2622 on: June 27, 2016, 07:57:53 AM »
@ bbr2314 you show that massive transport toward the Atlantic precisely when the very same model you use indicates almost no export to Barentz or Fram for the coming days.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif
 Is your map is based on a longer range prediction, or on a hunch?
The red lines sorry don't make any sense to me. The drag induced by that supposedly sinking boat is insinificant to wind pull. Didn't we notice the effect of past storms?
@ Tigertown iirc the state of the ice at the end of the melting season varies much from season to season.
My map is based on what's happened over the past month... the export may not occur continuously but it has been ongoing. The drag/'red lines' would be because the volume of the ice in motion is so significant and something has to replace what has been displaced (i.e. open water)
Please excuse my ignorance of the physics, but why should displaced ice have to be replaced by ice from elsewhere? Can't it simply remain as open water? Assuming, of course, that the forces that "split" the ice aren't acting equally on the adjoining ice, but then we wouldn't have a split.
Yep, Okono got it right -- I may have used the wrong word.

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2623 on: June 27, 2016, 08:38:19 AM »
Thanks jdallen.
We've seen that land-fast ice along the ESS shore go through a sustained 'torching' period with extreme heat coming from the snow-free Siberian lands from the end of May deep into June, and it seems it is finally caving in...
I am trying to put some more quantitative information on the thread http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,890.msg79159.html#msg79159
if you can point to a more descriptive source than "sustained period of extreme heat" please contribute it

Thank you, Andreas. Your "temperatures at Tiksi" graph is really a good indicator of what happened over the ESS coast since the end of May until deep into June :

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Andreas T

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2624 on: June 27, 2016, 09:11:19 AM »
strictly speaking Tiksi is on the Laptev coast, I was hoping you had additional data to show. What I also find noteworthy is the comparison with 2014 which had melted broken up further in this area and had the Laptev bite reaching out towards the CAB. The weather conditions have not been quite as extreme as some people seem to think. Of course 2014 was colder and still quite solidly frozen further east along the ESS coast.
It will be interesting to see how 2016 progresses from here. Keeping ice in place and melting it in situ rather than exporting it to the north may not do any good for ice volume loss in the longer term.

abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2625 on: June 27, 2016, 09:18:13 AM »
So you passed the terminator, then?

Seriously, it would help if you wrote where that is. I just looked and found it on the NE corner of Greenland.
The NE corner of Greenland is just the beginning of the problem: if that cracks spreads to the left along the coast in any signficant fashion we will see sub-2012 numbers in September and market panic will follow!


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Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2626 on: June 27, 2016, 09:38:31 AM »
strictly speaking Tiksi is on the Laptev coast, I was hoping you had additional data to show.

I do not at this time :D
I'd be happy to check NCEP/NCAR in a little bit.

Quote
What I also find noteworthy is the comparison with 2014 which had melted broken up further in this area and had the Laptev bite reaching out towards the CAB. The weather conditions have not been quite as extreme as some people seem to think. Of course 2014 was colder and still quite solidly frozen further east along the ESS coast.
It will be interesting to see how 2016 progresses from here. Keeping ice in place and melting it in situ rather than exporting it to the north may not do any good for ice volume loss in the longer term.

It sure will be interesting to follow 2016 progress.
But keep an eye out for the bigger picture. Weather is also determined by how much energy is in the system. Which is determined by the albedo effect.
And that effect has not been particularly conducive of ice preservation in 2016.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2016, 09:44:38 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2627 on: June 27, 2016, 09:49:34 AM »

What are you talking about? You are confusing 925 temps with what is happening at the surface. Unless the ice sheet is at 925mb (it isn't), you should stop using these red herrings.


I explained on page 49 why 925mb is a better measure of what is happening in the Arctic when you raised the same point.  And suggesting that 925mb is a red herring and then referring to temps for 80N- a very small portion of the Arctic - is just LOL.
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Rob Dekker

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Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2630 on: June 27, 2016, 10:05:24 AM »
I explained on page 49 why 925mb is a better measure of what is happening in the Arctic when you raised the same point.

Michael, it makes sense that 925mb temperatures make a difference for the melting season.
But at this time solar insolation rules.
So, do you have any sort of regression analysis, or some sort of sensitivity analysis that shows the influence of 925mb temps on melting rate at this time of the year ?
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2631 on: June 27, 2016, 11:02:54 AM »

I explained on page 49 why 925mb is a better measure of what is happening in the Arctic when you raised the same point.  And suggesting that 925mb is a red herring and then referring to temps for 80N- a very small portion of the Arctic - is just LOL.

above 80N is the part of the arctic which almost all is about when we are talking about final results of the melting season because that's where most of the remaining ice in september will be, so the above 80N conditions are most important to the final outcome of a melting season while the rest is more or less prone to seasonal variability.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2632 on: June 27, 2016, 11:11:40 AM »
even though there is a bit of fog, that will hopefully give way to better visibility later today, one can clearly see that once of a sudden that formerly homogenous surface gave way to rapid changes. the fact that max temps were barely above 0C it demonstrates very well what some of us are talking about all the time, almost no sun, quite some snow cover, temps currently below average and still poof, surfaces are starting disintegrate all over the place. watch the move as to what happened in kimmirut 1 month ahead of other years. within one hour around 50cm of shore ice turned into water and similar things happened in barrow within 2-3 days almost all the piled up shore ice went for good and i think this could be the key this year. no matter what, the ice is broken and very thin as compared to earlier years and the water, especially once it starts to circumvent the remaining ice will bite away rapidly because of the energy (heat) it contains by now. remember in winter when any ice crossing a certain line north of svalbard went "poof" and those temps are higher now, not lower.


Yuha

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2633 on: June 27, 2016, 11:54:33 AM »
So, do you have any sort of regression analysis, or some sort of sensitivity analysis that shows the influence of 925mb temps on melting rate at this time of the year ?

It's not a formal analysis, but looking at Andrew Slater's 925hPa temp ranks is pretty convincing to me:

     May Jun Jul Aug
2007  32   4   1   1
2008  16  30  24   7
2009  23  25  11  14
2010   6   7  33  11
2011  12   5   5   3
2012  11   6  12   6
2013  36  35  31  31
2014  30  33  36   5
2015  27  13   2  29
2016   3


You can certainly pick out good melt years and bad melt years just by those ranks.
The 2016 June rank will probably be around 20.


JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2634 on: June 27, 2016, 12:31:14 PM »
Seems there is some discussion on what low concentrations denotes in many areas, melt ponds or open water.  And if one is more effective at melting that the other?   And it seems like 2012, which from what I read was driven by melt ponds, it's used as a "benchmark" for melting ice.

In making animations, this year looks like it's open water, not melt ponds driving the low concentration in areas.  As I said, I don't know which is worse for ice retention.  The only point I'm making, is that I believe low concentrations are reflecting the extensive "rifting" from some modest cross polar flow from Siberia-CAA.  The recent cyclone certainly exacerbated the situation, and in my humble opinion, had left a bit of an open "scar" who's openings aren't just closing back up.  As I thought that would be the case.

I'll have to put these images in two posts.

Here is a gif of June 16-26.  I know it's not the best, but you can see the there is open water between floes.  Perhaps there are also melt ponds, but I'll let others determine that.

And, what are people using to determine that it would be melt ponds?  I can see the open water on satellite, not sure how one can determine melt ponds, other than with the buoy cameras.

Edit: It looks like the Beaufort gyre is ramping back up, even enough to get A-Teams big block moving northward.

Imagery courtesy of Colorado state university
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/archive_with_thumbnails_hi_res.asp?data_folder=npp_viirs_arctic/alaska_overview_true_color_viirs&width=800&height=800
« Last Edit: June 27, 2016, 01:02:57 PM by JayW »
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JayW

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2635 on: June 27, 2016, 12:50:40 PM »
Here are VIIRS images of the Pacific side from 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, in that order So others can make their own conclusions.  Sorry some are cloudy, I invite others to peruse the archive.

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu
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jplotinus

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2636 on: June 27, 2016, 04:16:39 PM »
strictly speaking Tiksi is on the Laptev coast, I was hoping you had additional data to show.

I do not at this time :D
I'd be happy to check NCEP/NCAR in a little bit.

Quote
What I also find noteworthy is the comparison with 2014 which had melted broken up further in this area and had the Laptev bite reaching out towards the CAB. The weather conditions have not been quite as extreme as some people seem to think. Of course 2014 was colder and still quite solidly frozen further east along the ESS coast.
It will be interesting to see how 2016 progresses from here. Keeping ice in place and melting it in situ rather than exporting it to the north may not do any good for ice volume loss in the longer term.

It sure will be interesting to follow 2016 progress.
But keep an eye out for the bigger picture. Weather is also determined by how much energy is in the system. Which is determined by the albedo effect.
And that effect has not been particularly conducive of ice preservation in 2016.

Chances are temps at Pevek will be available. Pevek is near ESS, I believe. Current temp at Pevek is 12°C (June 27).

Okono

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2637 on: June 27, 2016, 04:37:45 PM »
It's not a formal analysis, but looking at Andrew Slater's 925hPa temp ranks is pretty convincing to me:
Thanks for sharing the numbers.

I think this suffers from the same causality problem, though.  I see far less consistency regarding May or June temperatures and rate of ice cover loss, but once a season is a good melt season, it does well in latter months.  Is that the lack of ice permitting temperatures to rise, or is that higher temperatures melting the ice?

I suspect the former, but I could be wrong.  Someone needs to do the analysis here, and I would be surprised if nobody already has, but the Arctic, as we say, is full of surprises.  ;D

One quick check may be to compare ice loss(volume preferred, other metrics okay) to those ranks with some sort of a lag to see whether high temperatures lead to later lower ice volumes.  I believe that's the ANOVA work that others had done and demonstrated very low predictive ability for air temperatures.

And it seems like 2012, which from what I read was driven by melt ponds, it's used as a "benchmark" for melting ice....
It absolutely is, but is that the only way that we can get large extent or area drops?  Or did we just demonstrate one particularly effective modality, not to the exclusion of others?  I suspect the latter, and we've been so focused on that modality that we've lost sight of the others even though those rough estimates indicate that this is far from settled science, if you'll forgive me. :D

As I said, I don't know which is worse for ice retention.
So, yeah, ditto.  I wish we had more historical data, but it's not even clear that it would be helpful given how far we've deranged multiple variables.

And, what are people using to determine that it would be melt ponds?  I can see the open water on satellite, not sure how one can determine melt ponds, other than with the buoy cameras.
I think you can get a hunch based on comparison of different imagery bands, but I'm not sure.  Others will know more than me.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2016, 05:04:17 PM by Okono »

Yuha

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2638 on: June 27, 2016, 05:59:22 PM »
It's not a formal analysis, but looking at Andrew Slater's 925hPa temp ranks is pretty convincing to me:
Thanks for sharing the numbers.

I think this suffers from the same causality problem, though.  I see far less consistency regarding May or June temperatures and rate of ice cover loss, but once a season is a good melt season, it does well in latter months.  Is that the lack of ice permitting temperatures to rise, or is that higher temperatures melting the ice?

I believe you are right that the amount of open water affects the temperatures even at 925hPa level. This is clearly visible in the fall. For example October temperatures seem to have a strong correlation with ice extent. June and July seem to be less affected though, probably because there isn't that much open water yet in the relevant regions. For example 2010 still holds the record for lowest JAXA extent at the end of June but then it had one of the coldest Julys on record.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2639 on: June 27, 2016, 08:12:03 PM »
A few days of sun and warmer temps, and surface near the o-buoy has barely started to melt. Just 'some' weeks later than 2015 and 2012 if you ask me. A few posts above Rob Dekker links to a composite map showing below normal temps at Beaufort for a whole month (normal being a 30 year climatology!!).
Anyhow Beaufort sea ice has been disintegrating for weeks with no surface melt and no extent loss. How about that.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2640 on: June 27, 2016, 08:35:30 PM »
Wow been looking at the weather page of ASIG and Beaufort is done, big guy and all

oren

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2641 on: June 27, 2016, 10:41:49 PM »
For whatever it's worth, the ice in Kimmirut has totally cleared away.

cartographer

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2642 on: June 27, 2016, 10:45:21 PM »
I don't know if this has shown up elsewhere, but NSIDC has a new prototype product for sea ice concentration:

https://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g10005-masam2/

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2643 on: June 27, 2016, 11:38:03 PM »

Michael, it makes sense that 925mb temperatures make a difference for the melting season.
But at this time solar insolation rules.
So, do you have any sort of regression analysis, or some sort of sensitivity analysis that shows the influence of 925mb temps on melting rate at this time of the year ?

Definitely agree on solar insolation.  I often find that high pressure, sunny skies and high temps go together.  I don't think 925hp temps is perfect, but it does seem to often reveal useful parts of the story of a melting season.  For instance the dramatic switch in 2010 from fast melting to slow melting in early July, or the cool conditions in 13 and 14 that most people agree are a large part of why melt was slow in these years.  In contrast 2007 had a period in early July which seemed quite destructive to the ice to me, and 925 temps don't seem to reflect this destruction.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2644 on: June 28, 2016, 03:16:03 AM »
Wow been looking at the weather page of ASIG and Beaufort is done, big guy and all
Context? Where is the discussion?
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abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2645 on: June 28, 2016, 03:57:57 AM »

Michael, it makes sense that 925mb temperatures make a difference for the melting season.
But at this time solar insolation rules.
So, do you have any sort of regression analysis, or some sort of sensitivity analysis that shows the influence of 925mb temps on melting rate at this time of the year ?

Definitely agree on solar insolation. I often find that high pressure, sunny skies and high temps go together.  I don't think 925hp temps is perfect, but it does seem to often reveal useful parts of the story of a melting season.  For instance the dramatic switch in 2010 from fast melting to slow melting in early July, or the cool conditions in 13 and 14 that most people agree are a large part of why melt was slow in these years.  In contrast 2007 had a period in early July which seemed quite destructive to the ice to me, and 925 temps don't seem to reflect this destruction.
..high pressure goes with clear skies as far as I know! Given a certain time of year I suppose the rest might add up with it?!!?
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2646 on: June 28, 2016, 04:29:19 AM »

above 80N is the part of the arctic which almost all is about when we are talking about final results of the melting season because that's where most of the remaining ice in september will be, so the above 80N conditions are most important to the final outcome of a melting season while the rest is more or less prone to seasonal variability.

Most of the ice inside 80N never melts out, and so has nothing to do with year to year variability.  Much of the difference between one year and the next is driven by how much ice outside 80N remains.

If it is only the ice within 80N that matters, then how would you compare the state of the ice this year with that in 2013?  There is only a small area of weakened ice within the 80N circle this year towards ESS with most of the rest of the weak area from Beaufort to Laptev outside this circle.  In contrast during 2013 the weakened area cut a large swathe almost through the center of the 80N circle. 
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2647 on: June 28, 2016, 07:26:05 AM »
The ice @ 80N doesn't have to melt out at 80N if it gets transported south of that line.

With satellite confirmation of the great schism, HYCOM shows it accelerating and worsening dramatically by early July. Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock.




Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2648 on: June 28, 2016, 07:30:55 AM »
I have been reading for several months about the "blowtorch" that is going to melt all the arctic ice.  Sorry, I forgot his name, but the guy with the Michael Jackson picture used that word a lot.  Can someone tell me what the graph means and how sub-freezing temps will melt all the ice?

Thanks in advance!  I am just trying to understand the data.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016 melting season
« Reply #2649 on: June 28, 2016, 07:39:04 AM »
I have been reading for several months about the "blowtorch" that is going to melt all the arctic ice.  Sorry, I forgot his name, but the guy with the Michael Jackson picture used that word a lot.  Can someone tell me what the graph means and how sub-freezing temps will melt all the ice?

Thanks in advance!  I am just trying to understand the data.
Can we have a guide to not posting 925mb temps? Surface temps have been running much warmer, as has been posted *numerous* times in the past few pages.