Vote with your guts - And if... ?

[Sigmetnow]

I love all the differences of opinion here. The day we all agree on what’s coming next, we’ll also be wishing we had that underground bunker or cave. 

That said -- Chris, there have been a lot of asteroid and meteor reports recently....   

http://www.wunderground.com/news/closest-asteroid-flyby-ever-20130131

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2350

http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/03/23/meteor-dazzles-east-coast-night-skies/

http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/19/17373781-congress-hears-options-for-asteroid-defense-pay-now-or-pray-later?lite

(EDIT: fixed link)

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Chris R!

I would not have expected the kind of 'uptick' in ice movement/speeds we saw through the noughties but it happened?

Of course there would be no precedent as , I believe, what is occurring is unprecedented? Past orbital forced meltings would surely have been a far slower affair? As such the actual pace of change may itself force odd behaviours?

When GAC12 was forecast I remember discussions about a full atmospheric depth low anchoring over the pole and saying there for quite a while due to rotational forcings. I have no idea what such a long lived ,deep cyclone would cause but I do remember what happened to my Hamster when I flipped the turntable from 33rpm to 78rpm.........

It is such 'unprecedented' but plausible events that might be the 'acceleration' to the final process of ice loss. I do agree that this '1 million' figure is going to throw up it's own set of issues that certain pedants might seize onto to avoid looking at the changes ongoing (another 'Squirrel'?).

All in all I'm saying I am not going to rule a bizarre and rapid end to the ice now that it is so fragile? Last year was an 'average summer' this year we have similar ice volume/thickness but a melt year previous that dropped us 18% lower than the past plunge in area/extent. I believe the 07' drop had major implications on the ice and so surely 2012 will also have similar on the remnant pack (no Paleocryistic to finish of this time!!).

Anyhoo's! time will tell all! Let's sit and watch how the early season treats the ice?

[frankendoodle]

I voted for option #1 because CT SIA could very well reach the 1 mkm mark this year. However, 1 mkm for SIE would shock me! (even 30% SIE measured by DMI).
But more so, 1 mkm would vindicate the statement made by Jay Zwally at NASA Goddard during an interview a few years ago.

This little chestnut is posted on climate denier sites all the @#$% time and is somehow "proof" that NASA is lying about climate change and spending our tax dollars on cocaine parties held in the climate scientist's sold gold mansions

[ChrisReynolds]

Gray Wolf,

"I would not have expected the kind of 'uptick' in ice movement/speeds we saw through the noughties but it happened?"

I would have. In one of my earliest posts I went over the thinning of the ice pack.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2011/07/in-previous-post-i-looked-at-what-had.html
I'd have expected faster ice speeds due to less mass, however shortly after that I blogged on Hakkinen et al, who find increased wind speeds to be the culprit.

I'd already given my opinion that 1M km^2 extent is so unlikely I'd be wiling to bet my blogging future on it. Then I thought - do the numbers - and when I did the numbers it only drove home how highly unlikely it would be.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to believe we were on the verge of such a massive crash, it would be exciting beyond belief. But the evidence doesn't support it.

[ChrisReynolds]

Frankendoodle,

Zwally said:  "At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions."
http://news.nationalgeographic.co.uk/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html

This was based on the assumption that further crashes could follow rapidly. In actuality it turned out that 2007 was an excursion below the local equilibrium, and a slight recover back to trend occurred. But I was following sea ice in 2007, and I guarantee nobody could have said with confidence what was going to happen.

The denialists are a bunch of double figure IQ numpties, whining because they've lost the argument, and sniping at perfectly reasonable statements.  

Given what was known in Autumn 2007 Zwally's statement was correct: At this rate (the rate suggested by the 2007 event), 2012 could have been virtually ice free. But being a bunch of cupid stunts the denialists can't grasp that. As it was, 2012 crashed out well below 2007, and what we had last year was stunning - virtually all the ice was contained by the 80th parallel!
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmisdata/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2012/sep/asi-SSMIS-n6250-20120915-v5_visual.png

As for this year, I'm 90% confident we'll see 2012's record broken by a good margin, I'd not bet against an area below 2M km^2 (CT Area), by end July I'll be able to say if I think it's likely.

[frankendoodle]

Chris,

I was also around in 2007 going to NSIDC every day to watch the SIE drop. As we both know, that was due to a extreme set of weather conditions (the AO for one) that lead to the 2007 record extent. As PIOMAS has show us, ice volume has decreased steadily and Godiva 2 has show that the PIOMAS models have been accurate. Thus the new record in 2012 in which conditions were ordinary and every measurable record was beaten.
I will be a bit surprised if 2013 SIA does not go below 2 mkm! I think were will see a lot of ice  transport into the Atlantic this summer.
On a personal note Chris, thank you for your reply. You have always been one of my favorite contributors to Neven's blog.

[ChrisReynolds]

Thanks Frankendoodle,

I keep meaning to re-read the papers in my 2007 folder, I need to refresh my mind about what actually caused that event.

[AndrewP]

I'd give 1/3 chance of breaking the 2.2 from last year. predict 2.7 w/ CI of 1.7-3.4

[staxx]

#1 gets my vote,pessimistic and unlikely it may be,it could be our one chance to grab the status quo by the gnarlies while we have a choice/before methane removes man from any solution

[Kate]

#1 would be slightly surprising but worth a vote.

I'm thinking if the ice survives this year it probably won't the year after that. Too much movement, too many new weather system changes, too much feedback.

[NeilT]

I voted #2

I'm not expecting it this year.  More around the 2015 - 2017 bracket.  However with the combination of:

• rotten ice
• extremely thin ice
• low volume
• continuing heat transport
• higher solar flux than 2007/2010
• open water giving higher chances of summer storms

To be honest what actually would be a surprise?  A growth of 1M km^2???  Because, for me, nothing else would be a surprise including complete and total loss of all the ice.

I was watching the Ice before 2005 when the October (or was it November), polynia the size of the UK suddenly appeared when the ice should have been growing again.  I compared 2005 with 2000 - 2004, in overlay, when the 2005 event happened.  I spent every day of the summer watching 2007.  Just exactly what is a "norm"?  I will not be surprised at all if it goes that way this year, but I also won't be surprised if it doesn't.

I've also been watching the Antarctic shelves since the late 90's.  The only "norm" that I can ascribe to what is happening down there is "surprise".....

[cRR Kampen]

Voted #1. Not saying it will happen this year per se, but I would not be surprised at all. Just shocked.

[Paul Beckwith]

I think that the ice will be essentially gone this year, as I have publicly stated and blogged about in March. 

Not only that, I suspect that within a month or two there will be a new vote as to how many days will be ice free this summer, 5, 10, 15,...,30? (if I had to guess now I would say 30).

Then a vote will soon follow on how many days in summer/2014 will be ice free, and I would guess 90 for that.

Finally, the vote will be on when the entire Arctic will be ice free year round, and I would say by 2020. 

And then we are in a new climate world...short and sweet abrupt change...of course these numbers all assume that no geoengineering occurs and the supervolcano under Yellowstone stays dormant...

[Paul Beckwith]

Since 2008, I have been predicting 2013-14, based on the changes in the forecasts from "ice free in 100 years" in 2002 to "ice free in 50 years" in 2008. It became clear that the models were under predicting the changes in the arctic by a factor of ten. Predictions since then have hugged that line.

Loved this rationale; in fact I have done the exact same thing since about 2007. 

I have also used this logic to look at Greenland melt, and came up with a total melt completion date of about 2070...

[Laurent]

That's a bit radical ! ouuuuf ! I would love you to be wrong !
My guess is that your not far from the truth ! we'll see that very soon...

[Siffy]

complete layman but I doubt it will go under 1M sq KM this year..

Next year is any ones guess those I think we are most half a decade away from seeing ice free summer with out some bizarre weather events.

[adelady]

I went with the majority - but that's mainly because of the ENSO position.   

Any year from now on where we have el Nino conditions prevailing for any significant period, I'd say all bets are off for the Arctic.  I'd go for number one.  In it's current state, even a moderate or not-long-lived el Nino will see off the last of the ice either that year or the following one.   

A big el Nino could cause enough other problems with droughts and fires and crop losses that the last of the ice trickling into the Greenland Sea will be just another day in the great disruption. 

[F.Tnioli]

Hi all,

I've been thinking about such a poll for some time... Let's see what comes out !

Please play the game, close your eyes and imagine that in september most ice has disappeared. How big would be your "Wow" ?

Ok, i did that. Closed me eyes, imagined. Quickly realized there are TWO proper answers to this one single question of yours, - in my case, at least. Interesting thing is, those two answers are quite opposing each other. Let me explain.

1st: rather little "wow", kind of "darn, it's gone already? Gee... Well, i knew".

2nd: really big "WOW!???", kind of "impossible! I knew it couldn't be, not this year!".

The 1st answer is true, because for a few years already i know (from works of W.Maslowski, PIOMASS, Wadhams, others) that Arctic sea ice will be gone about 2016 +- 3 years. 2013 fits in, if barely. The fact itself - of summer Arctic sea ice disappearing, - is no surprise at all to me, nor its end result. That's how this 1st answer is true and meaningful.

The 2nd answer is ALSO true, though - because i took an eye on Arctic sea ice dynamics in 2013, and answering your question today, i have a strong belief that Arctic won't be ice-free this year. It'll be quite close to 2012, in my opinion. Knowing this, sudden disappearance of it this year would break ALOT of my knowledge, and make me wonder how i and so many other people could be mistaken about so seemingly obvious things for such a long time. In this sense, it'd be a huge "WOW" - that's how 2nd answer is true too, even despite it's quite the opposite to the 1st.

So you see, it depends on what people assume while reading your question. Some will go 1st route, others will go 2nd - they'll give quite opposite answers, and create an illusion of various truths where, in fact, both things are true in the same time.

It's because your question is actually not one, but two quesitons. "2 in 1", hehe. Because the part which would differentiate those two questions from each other - is missing in the poll itself and in your 1st post.


I hope something of the above will help to either interpret results of this poll better, and/or to improve future polls. Sorry if i said something silly, too. Happens with everybody from time to time, i guess. Happens with me, too. 't was just my opinion, nothing more.

[FredFriendly]

How surprised is everyone about what is happening?  If it continues we could start building multiyear sea ice instead of losing it.  I did not expect a lower extent than 2012, but I certainly did not expect a much higher one either.

Will it stay below freezing, on average up there?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[ChrisReynolds]

Fred,

I'm not surprised now. It took the June data to make me massively revise upwards (almost double my original CT Area prediction). I seriously doubt this is the start of a recovery, as far as I'm concerned it's a one year weather driven blip.

[icebgone]

Since the 2nd SSW event I seriously doubted whether water temps just under the ice would ever recover fast enough to provide enough bottom melt.  The weather in May pretty much reduced the options.  There is still a chance to reach 2010's numbers if another ice grinder comes along soon -- in the next 4-7 days.  This last one just fizzled too soon.  The lack of big storms in the Atlantic this late in the season means a lot of heat remains stored in the ocean and will be available to keep ice formation this winter to a minimum.  The great unknown at this point is whether the pacific which is showing excess heat will be a player over the winter or early spring 2014 like it was in 2007.  If you get warm surface and mid-level water from both oceans then next year will be very interesting.  I really hope we can avoid another big SSW event.  With the ice in its weakened condition it makes forecasting very difficult.  More buoys and thermistors would help.  So would additional satellite look down capability.  When is the next launch scheduled to take the place of the aging "A" train components?

[Nightvid Cole]

How surprised is everyone about what is happening?  If it continues we could start building multiyear sea ice instead of losing it.  I did not expect a lower extent than 2012, but I certainly did not expect a much higher one either.

Will it stay below freezing, on average up there?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

You only build a semi-stable MYI pack when ice can move south from the central Arctic into the Beaufort, head west into the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas, and then back north into the Central Arctic, over the course of several years, without melting. This is the condition seen in the 1980s and earlier, but has not occurred in recent years.

The ice on the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas is retreating VERY FAST right now despite an unfavorable weather pattern, and the ice that got pushed south into that area last winter stands no chance at surviving. We are nowhere remotely near rebuilding the MYI core that the Arctic once had.