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Author Topic: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC  (Read 33053 times)

budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #100 on: August 24, 2016, 07:40:40 AM »
Buddy: You changed your signature line a little, Fox News/ Trump Channel.  Very apropos!

AbruptSLR

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #101 on: August 24, 2016, 09:56:23 AM »
The linked May 2016 article by David Dunning indicates that Trumps popularity can be explained by the Dunning-Kruger Effect:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-supporters-dunning-kruger-effect-213904

Extract: "The Psychological Quirk That Explains Why You Love Donald Trump
The popularity of the GOP front-runner can be explained by the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

...

This syndrome may well be the key to the Trump voter—and perhaps even to the man himself. Trump has served up numerous illustrative examples of the effect as he continues his confident audition to be leader of the free world even as he seems to lack crucial information about the job. In a December debate he appeared ignorant of what the nuclear triad is. Elsewhere, he has mused that Japan and South Korea should develop their own nuclear weapons—casually reversing decades of U.S. foreign policy.

Many commentators have pointed to these confident missteps as products of Trump’s alleged narcissism and egotism. My take would be that it's the other way around. Not seeing the mistakes for what they are allows any potential narcissism and egotism to expand unchecked.

...

But the key lesson of the Dunning-Kruger framework is that it applies to all of us, sooner or later. Each of us at some point reaches the limits of our expertise and knowledge. Those limits make our misjudgments that lie beyond those boundaries undetectable to us.

As such, if we find ourselves worried about the apparent gullibility of the Trump voter, which may be flamboyant and obvious, we should surely worry about our own naive political opinions that are likely to be more nuanced, subtle, and invisible—but perhaps no less consequential. We all run the risk of being too ill-informed to notice when our own favored candidates or national leaders make catastrophic misjudgments.

To be sure, I don’t wish to leave the reader with a fatal hesitation about supporting any candidate. All I am saying is trust, but verify.

Thomas Jefferson once observed that “if a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." The Trump phenomenon makes visible something that has been true for quite some time now. As a citizenry, we can be massively ill-informed. Yet, our society remains relatively free."


See also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Extract: "The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability as much higher than it really is. Dunning and Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive inability of those of low ability to recognize their ineptitude and evaluate their ability accurately. Their research also suggests corollaries: high-ability individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others.

Dunning and Kruger have postulated that the effect is the result of internal illusion in those of low ability, and external misperception in those of high ability: "The miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others.""
« Last Edit: August 24, 2016, 10:07:37 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #102 on: August 24, 2016, 10:18:21 AM »
The following article from May 2016, examines evidence of Trump's Mob ties:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-2016-mob-organized-crime-213910

Extract: "Just What Were Donald Trump's Ties to the Mob?
I've spent years investigating, and here's what's known.

...

What Trump has to say about the reasons for his long, close and wide-ranging dealings with organized crime figures, with the role of mobsters in cheating Trump Tower workers, his dealings with Felix Sater and Trump’s seeming leniency for Weichselbaum, are questions that voters deserve full answers about before casting their ballots."


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Buddy

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #103 on: August 24, 2016, 01:03:45 PM »
Buddy: You changed your signature line a little, Fox News/ Trump Channel.  Very apropos!

Yea.  Fox has definitely "exposed" themselves this election cycle.  With Sean Hannity and Bill O'Reilly FULLY on board the "Trump Train".....as well as their "understudies" like Eric Boling and the rest of FOX.

They really need to get rid of the "fair and balanced" tag line.  It NEVER was true....and now it is clear for even die hard Trumpies.

If Trump loses (assuming there IS a God:)......then we will "gain" another right wing nut show with Bannon, Trump, Ailes and company.

England and France are looking BETTER AND BETTER....


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Buddy

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #104 on: August 24, 2016, 01:15:58 PM »
Extract: "The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability as much higher than it really is. Dunning and Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive inability of those of low ability to recognize their ineptitude and evaluate their ability accurately. Their research also suggests corollaries: high-ability individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others.

Powerful....and true.  You see this in the corporate world ALL THE TIME.  And they are right....it goes both ways.  I had a boss one time....a CFO....who really SHOULD HAVE BEEN the CEO.  I don't know that he knew just HOW GOOD he really was...and how much he was an "operational guy" as well as a "finance guy."

I also worked for a CEO who had NO IDEA how woefully inadequate he was.  NO CLUE.  And his ego blinded him to his poor decisions.

We ALL see things through our OWN EYES and we have bias that is formed by our experiences as well as our DNA.  And yes...our eyes can and do deceive us.  Psychology is the BIGGEST AREA where mankind seems to be woefully lacking...and it is slowing down mankind's advance as a society.

And that is where the "free press" SHOULD be stepping in and calling out those who are making "bad calls".....and those that are lying.  The press needs to hold them accountable.



FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #105 on: August 25, 2016, 01:54:04 PM »
The Race has tightened over the last 10 days.  Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com had the national vote at about a 9% gap....and now it is a 7% gap between Clinton and Trump. 

I would expect that gap to shrink further.  There are about 70 days left...and that is a LOT of time to shrink those differences.  That is very doable IF there are enough people who fall for the Trump con job.

The states of Colorado, Virginia, and Pennsylvania are really what is Clinton's "firewall."  Virginia and Colorado are about 10% or slightly more in the Clinton camp right now...and barring something REALLY strange....I consider "fairly safe".  Pennsylvania is THEE KEY STATE for BOTH parties as it stands right now.  As Pennsylvania goes.....so will go the election.

Clinton can lose Nevada, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio (those states are ALL very close right now)....but she CAN'T lose Pennsylvania and still get to 270 electoral votes.  Nor can Trump get to 270 without Pennsylvania.

The Trump campaign manager thinks that Trump "has a road to 288".....which would mean she thinks Trump can take Virginia.  I don't think he can.  Tim Kaine....the VP running mate for Clinton is the Virginia governor....and a VERY POPULAR governor at that.  Also....Virginia has a lot of new college educated voters that are going against Trump in this election cycle.  Virginia is much like Colorado....only Colorado has a larger Hispanic voter base which is also not good for Trump in Colorado.

I guess the good thing here in the US.....is that we will know early in the evening on election night, who has won since Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida are east coast time....and Ohio is 1 hour later (I think).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html





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sidd

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #106 on: August 25, 2016, 08:12:24 PM »
ohio is in east coast timezone. Indiana is a patchwork ... closing time at bars and carryout hours in stores depend on which county you are in ...

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #107 on: August 26, 2016, 02:58:55 PM »
FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

AbruptSLR

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #108 on: August 27, 2016, 01:18:53 AM »
The New Yorker analyzes the case that Donald Trump is a con artist; and that a major part of the American public may be too self-deluded to acknowledge this probability; which speaks volumes of how readily a great many Americans can delude themselves about climate change:

http://www.newyorker.com/science/maria-konnikova/donald-trump-con-artist

Extract: "This raises a depressing possibility. If Trump is indeed a con artist, and if he is, in the end, elected, we may end up not wanting to admit that we were scammed. At the moment, Trump’s supporters see him as authentic and honest, even as they dismiss more traditional candidates, like Hillary Clinton, as quintessential politicians—that is, as opportunistic liars. Perhaps, in the future, we’ll cling to this belief to preserve our collective self-image. In that case, the term “con artist” may end up applying to us, too."
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CraigsIsland

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #109 on: August 27, 2016, 01:22:42 AM »
I think "bullshitter" is more accurate than "con-artist". It's not so much about the con (of conning the American people), it's more about his capability to do the job and where his real interests lie in.

budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #110 on: August 27, 2016, 07:17:05 AM »
Trump is so overconfident in his own abilities. His followers view him as some kind of messiah. There's a lot of good people who are so frustrated with the status quo, that they actually believe he can magically make it all better. I sincerely hope he doesn't get elected. If he loses to Hillary, his followers will be disappointed, but they'll continue to believe that he's the answer. If he wins the election, they'll be far more disappointed when they see that their "savior" is woefully unprepared to lead the country.

I cant believe I'm actually thinking of this as a viable alternative but it might be better if he did get elected. If he did, in two years time I imagine everyone will want to tar and feather him and send him out on a rail. Surely a fate he richly deserves!

budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #111 on: August 30, 2016, 11:14:30 AM »
Here's a little Trump humor for everyone's enjoyment.

Buddy

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #112 on: August 30, 2016, 03:02:53 PM »
Here's  a very interesting video clip from the Rachel Maddow show last night regarding presidential "letters of health" that are done by EVERY candidate for President....for ages.  Specifically....it digs into the SHORT LETTER from Donald Trump's physician and the circumstances around it...and the specifics of it....including an NBC interview of his physician:

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/trump-s-doctor-softens-on-trump-s-health-754038339539

The physician "letter" in total is below.  As you will see....it is SHORT, VAGUE, and sounds like it was written by Donald Trump...not a serious physician:

So...not only has Donald Trump NOT RELEASED HIS TAX RETURNS....UNLIKE EVERY CANDIDATE SINCE THE early 1970's.....but NOW he has NOT released a "true" physician letter.

He would be....BY FAR....the most "opaque" and "undisclosed" president of modern times....by a long ways.  No tax returns (which he will NEVER release, even if he is elected)....and no REAL physician letter.

If you want a good laugh.....read Trump's "physician letter":

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/14/donald-trump-health-doctor-letter-americas-healthiest-president
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budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #113 on: August 31, 2016, 06:13:37 AM »
Looks like candidate Trump will be meeting with the president of Mexico today. Should be interesting!

Buddy

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #114 on: August 31, 2016, 10:17:18 PM »
Clinton's lead now down to about 5.3% per fivethirtyeight.com.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

This "could" come down to "the Keystone state" (Pennsylvania).  I guess Pennsylvania's nickname may be appropriate for this election....

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budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #115 on: August 31, 2016, 10:50:54 PM »
Buddy: I'd like to know what you think of Trump's visit with the Mexican president.

TerryM

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #116 on: August 31, 2016, 10:55:29 PM »
Buddy: I'd like to know what you think of Trump's visit with the Mexican president.
Are they disarmed, or allowed knives?
Terry

budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #117 on: August 31, 2016, 10:59:35 PM »
Buddy: I'd like to know what you think of Trump's visit with the Mexican president.
Are they disarmed, or allowed knives?
Terry

The Mexicans or Trump's entourage?

Buddy

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #118 on: August 31, 2016, 11:20:42 PM »
Trump is no dummy.  He may be EGOTISTICAL.....AN OUTRIGHT LIAR.......AND UNETHICAL....but he and his team understand politics.

The trip was meant to make him "look presidential."  So...in that....he succeeded (unless....like me, you don't buy the con).

There will be NO WAY that Mexico.....EVER...pays for the wall.  In fact...it will NEVER BE BUILT.

The election is a production for Trump.  And...it could...if enough people get conned...work.

The first debate should be interesting.....and the ratings will off the charts.  Anyone who has a bad performance there, will be behind the eight ball.  Expect polls to tighten as we approach the debate in 3+ weeks.

Watching election polls....is somewhat like the stock market.  NOBODY cares what YOU paid for your stock.....it is all about what EVERYBODY ELSE THINKS about the stock that is important.

For me....I can't understand why ANYONE would vote for him.  But it isn't ME that is important....it's what everybody else thinks.  And November 8th....we'll find out.





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budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #119 on: September 01, 2016, 02:08:08 AM »
I watched part of the joint news conference and later read a CNN article about the meeting. Trump is definitely not a dummy. That meeting gave him an aura of credibility that could boost his poll numbers for a few days or at least until he commits his next gaffe.

budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #120 on: September 01, 2016, 06:59:45 AM »
For me....I can't understand why ANYONE would vote for him.  But it isn't ME that is important....it's what everybody else thinks.  And November 8th....we'll find out.

Fivethirtyeight.com is showing Trump closing the gap slightly. As far as understanding why some people will vote for someone we find repulsive, you have to view the world from their perspective I suppose. I'm sure there are a lot of Trump voters wondering how anyone could possibly vote for Hillary.

What amazes me is some of these people would have voted for her in 2008, but eight years later, they don't trust her. Why? It could have to do with Benghazi and her private email server. I think it has more to do with what has happened in the last eight years. For reasons I don't completely understand, the political landscape has changed drastically.

Buddy

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #121 on: September 01, 2016, 01:16:33 PM »
Here is the video of the 8/31/2016 Rachel Maddow show (Wednesday night).  The first 5 minutes of the video discusses how Trump tried to set up a meeting with Israel's prime minister....but he later LIED about saying he was going to meet with the prime minister.....and then later tried to set up a meeting with Ireland's leader.....but that didn't work out because the leader of Ireland said he would tell Trump to his face what a racist he is.

It is truly interesting how EASILY TRUMP LIES.  They just roll off his tongue.

The video of Rachel's show runs for the first 30 minutes....but I only think the first 5 minutes are interesting.   From 30 minutes on....it is the speech on Wednesday night in Arizona....where he discarded his "diplomatic Donald" for the Donald we're used to seeing:  Crazy Donald...

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show#!#full-episodes
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Buddy

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #122 on: September 01, 2016, 05:42:15 PM »
I'm sure there are a lot of Trump voters wondering how anyone could possibly vote for Hillary.

I'm NOT a big Clinton fan.  It is more that Trump is making Clinton look good to me.

If I were on a deserted island.....and there were only two women on the island....and one of them was a "3" (out of 10....10 being highest) and one was 1.......the "3" would look pretty good compared to the 1.

That's about where I am with both of these.  AND......Hillary's running mate, Tim Kaine, I like a lot.

It looks like "crazy bigoted Donald" showed up at his "immigration speech" last night in Arizona.  That should help.  As long as THE REAL DONALD TRUMP shoes up every once in a while....THAT will be good for Clinton.



 
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budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #123 on: September 01, 2016, 08:13:37 PM »
I'm sure there are a lot of Trump voters wondering how anyone could possibly vote for Hillary.

I'm NOT a big Clinton fan.  It is more that Trump is making Clinton look good to me.

If I were on a deserted island.....and there were only two women on the island....and one of them was a "3" (out of 10....10 being highest) and one was 1.......the "3" would look pretty good compared to the 1.

That's about where I am with both of these.  AND......Hillary's running mate, Tim Kaine, I like a lot.

It looks like "crazy bigoted Donald" showed up at his "immigration speech" last night in Arizona.  That should help.  As long as THE REAL DONALD TRUMP shoes up every once in a while....THAT  will be good for Clinton.

I agree, Trump does make Clinton look good and I do like Tim Kaine.

Trump came across pretty well with his visit to Mexico, but his "immigration speech" negated any gains he might have made, (excepting his own supporters).

mati

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #124 on: September 01, 2016, 09:54:01 PM »
As a Canadian i cannot understand the hatred spewed out against Hillary Clinton.  It boggles my mind, but then again I remember my selective set of Americans that I know, and then it all makes sense... they really have a very very narrow view of the world.
and so it goes

Buddy

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #125 on: September 01, 2016, 10:22:18 PM »
As a Canadian i cannot understand the hatred spewed out against Hillary Clinton.  It boggles my mind, but then again I remember my selective set of Americans that I know, and then it all makes sense... they really have a very very narrow view of the world.

I call it "the FOX News effect."  But it is just more than FOX.  Breitbart News......and other "far right wing" sweatshops have had it in for her for a long time.  It goes back to the days when her husband was the President.  Some of it is likely because of him.  But from "the right" there is a real hatred.  And while she sure as heck did NOT do everything correctly.....the far right makes it out to be WAY WORSE than reality.  Especially the Benghazi issue.

The "email issue"....I can understand why people dislike what she did.  But since ANYONE INCLUDING THE CIA AND DEFENSE DEPARTMENT'S can be hacked into....it isn't a big deal to me that she used her "personal server."  That....to me....is being more of a "technical idiot".....than anything else.  I'm MUCH MORE concerned about the CONTENT of emails than I am concerned about what server they were on.

And the Clinton Foundation stuff......it's pretty much bull.  The Clinton Foundation does CHARITY WORK....it isn't there business.  Heaven forbid we have private foundations that give money to needy people in the world. 

Journalism here in the states is PRETTY DAMN CRAPPY.  FOX News is a lie machine.  CNN doesn't have any "kahonies" (balls).....some of MSNBC is OK (Morning Joe..is balanced between conservative and liberal)...but overall, journalism here sucks.  And anyone who watches FOX News thinks that (1) liberals and moderates are trying to take away their guns (2) if everyone were only a Christian than everything would be great (3) Obama is Satin, and (4) global warming is a con job from all the climate scientists in the world.

Politics is pretty crazy right now in the states.... It will be funny to see all the "crazies" running for cover as global warming continues to march UPWARDS over the next 5 years and further.

If you're ever in TOO GOOD A MOOD sometime....just turn on FOX News in the US.  Guaranteed to put you in a bad mood.....:)

 
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budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #126 on: September 01, 2016, 11:10:37 PM »
As a Canadian i cannot understand the hatred spewed out against Hillary Clinton.  It boggles my mind, but then again I remember my selective set of Americans that I know, and then it all makes sense... they really have a very very narrow view of the world.

Yes Mati it does boggle the mind and there are a lot of reactionaries in the U.S., and it's a bit scary at times. I am also in general agreement with Buddy's comments above. There must be some reactionary types in Canada as well, perhaps far fewer in number. Are any of them as unhinged as ours?

P-maker

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #127 on: September 01, 2016, 11:44:20 PM »
Buddy:

I call it "the FOX News effect."


I am not really sure you are right. Actually, I think it started off with the Weather Channel. As soon as this – presumably sciency – channel started to spew out commercials along with weather disasters, I think we entered the “Post-factual Society”.

The cognitive dissonance in people’s heads started to accumulate. One could – quite wrongfully – get the impression from watching this channel, that a 3.5 ton SUV might be able to save you and your family from all the hardship in the World, including tornadoes, hurricanes, snow storms, tsunamis and other calamities such as civil wars. By introducing commercials, which showed the root cause of the problem as the savior of all times, most people were distracted by that fact that a 3.5 ton truck is also going to sink next time your area gets flooded.

FOX News is about politics, which most people know is mainly about who is best at lying.

F..king up the basic instincts of people – such as the flea or fight mechanism – is really bad for society.

You guys over there in the trailer parks really deserve DJT!

Please have a closer look at the guy coming your way: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/carol-caldwell/dj-trump-psychopath_b_9307400.html




TerryM

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #128 on: September 02, 2016, 12:02:51 AM »
Before Canadians get too self righteous, perhaps we should remember our late great 'Smoke it if you got it' Major Ford, 'Toll Road' Premier Harris & certainly not the least 'Silence of the Scientists' star P.M. Stephen Harper.
We managed to dump them all eventually, but I'd put them right up there with the worst that our neighbors to the south have elected.
Terry

budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #129 on: September 02, 2016, 12:33:14 AM »
Buddy:

I call it "the FOX News effect."

By introducing commercials, which showed the root cause of the problem as the savior of all times, most people were distracted by that fact that a 3.5 ton truck is also going to sink next time your area gets flooded.

Commercials, (aka; propaganda) have been around a lot longer than the weather channel, but I get what you're saying. Being originally from New Hampshire, I'm reminded of many trips to the mountains on snow covered roads. What usually ends up happening to those type A personalities driving their Hummers, Tahoes and Armadas is they end up sliding off the road into the woods and end up needing a tow!

As to the SUV or truck sinking in a flooded area, perhaps it was equipped with a snorkel?

Buddy

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #130 on: September 02, 2016, 03:16:37 PM »
Let's see if this is the end of the "Clinton slide" over the past few weeks....

a)  Have polls reached "equilibrium" and will stay about where they are now...until the first debate?

b)  Or...is this the beginning of a "Clinton bump up" in polls.....after Dishonest Don went to Mexico....and then came back and delivered his speech in Arizona?

Will be interesting to watch polls over the next 3 weeks leading up to the debate...
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #131 on: September 02, 2016, 09:53:55 PM »
This isn't DIRECTLY on topic....but it IS about FOX News....and it IS about Roger Ailes....and Ailes is now an "advisor" to Trump.

It doesn't get much better than this....I'll take this as an early Xmas present from Gretchen Carlson to society in general:

https://www.yahoo.com/tv/gretchen-carlson-taped-roger-ailes-sexual-164521098.html

I would think that Gretchen's payout for Ailes' sexual harassment just tripled in amount....

You can judge a person by "the company he keeps".  Donald Trump thinks the world of Roger Ailes.....and a whole host of other "less than desirable folks.  He sure knows how to pick his friends....:)



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sidd

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #132 on: September 02, 2016, 11:42:11 PM »
In other news, from the Grange fair in PA, one of the oldest grange fairs, a snippet from an unnamed correspondent:

--begin quote
"This is Central PA," explained my 67 year old farmer buddy, taking a huge toke off his homegrown spliff, "and if you say you're not voting for Trump, you'll get punched in the face."

"We know he ain't going to bring coal jobs back. We don't trust him, but we trust the other one even less."
--end quote

Low population density round there, might not matter.

sidd
« Last Edit: September 02, 2016, 11:48:03 PM by sidd »

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #133 on: September 02, 2016, 11:53:01 PM »
Low population density round there, might not matter.

Trump will take rural PA quite decisively. However....in Pennsylvania....EVERY VOTE WILL COUNT.

It is still pretty amazing to me.....that the only person Trump could beat on the Democratic side is Hillary.....and the only one that Hillary can beat on the Republican side is Trump.  Boy did we get a "raw deal" this time....

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budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #134 on: September 03, 2016, 06:58:49 AM »
Low population density round there, might not matter.

Boy did we get a "raw deal" this time....


raw deal indeed and the cost for both candidates combined will be in the vicinity of two billion dollars.

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #136 on: September 03, 2016, 06:01:40 PM »
That is a great ad Buddy. Another self-inflicted wound by the Donald.

budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #137 on: September 04, 2016, 04:40:32 PM »
More Trump cartoons.

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #138 on: September 04, 2016, 04:59:10 PM »
Here's some information regarding the issue of Donald Trump NOT releasing ANY of his tax returns.  I'm a CPA and spent 10 years in accounting and tax...and I can tell you there is not ANY REASON for Trump NOT to release his tax returns.....other than it will be EMBARRASING FOR HIM when people discover...:

A)  He isn't worth NEARLY what he said he is worth....because his income is WAY BELOW what it could/should be for someone who SAYS he is worth $10 BILLION DOLLARS (he's not...not even close).

B)  He hasn't contributed even CLOSE to what he said he has contributed to charities.  That would be VERY OBVIOUS due to his lack of charitable contributions on his itemized deductions.

I had the good fortune and FUN really.....of working on some extremely COMPLICATED and VOLUMINOUS tax returns.  One of them....everyone on this site (worldwide) would recognize the last name (and no....I will NOT disclose that name.....a good CPA WOULDN'T release any information tied to a person's tax return WITHOUT their express approval).

If I were in Donald Trump's campaign....and I believed in what Trump was doing or would do....one of the first things I would tell him is RELEASE YOUR TAX RETURNS FOR THE LAST 10 YEARS.

But he will NEVER....EVER....release his returns because of the two issues mentioned above.

Here's a good article on his tax returns:

https://thinkprogress.org/the-big-lie-about-donald-trumps-tax-returns-585aa23bf529#.e6c9otq86
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budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #139 on: September 04, 2016, 05:33:03 PM »


If I were in Donald Trump's campaign....and I believed in what Trump was doing or would do....one of the first things I would tell him is RELEASE YOUR TAX RETURNS FOR THE LAST 10 YEARS.

But he will NEVER....EVER....release his returns because of the two issues mentioned above.


According to the attached CNN article, Pence says he will release his tax returns next week, and said Trump will release his returns once the audit is complete. I'm guessing the audit will be completed sometime in mid November!

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #140 on: September 05, 2016, 11:09:24 AM »
The conservative republican from Arizona (Jeff Flake) refuses to endorse Trump. The attached article discusses Trump's response.

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #141 on: September 06, 2016, 06:16:16 PM »
THAT didn't take long.  It's amazing what having the tape recordings of what Ailes actually said will do...:)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/fox-news-gretchen-carlson-settlement-roger-ailes_us_57cec0aee4b0a22de096d72c?section=&

Plus...a SLEAZZY operation like FOX wants to put this issue to bed as soon as possible.....so they can get back to their other business of lying about global warming.....and lying for Trump.

FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #142 on: September 07, 2016, 08:03:54 AM »
Per the fivethirtyeight.com website, Trump seems to be closing the gap with Clinton. At present, if Clinton lost Ohio and Florida, he would win the election considering the "polls plus" or "polls only" forecasts. I find it hard to believe but the Donald could still win the election.

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #143 on: September 07, 2016, 01:16:42 PM »
Per the fivethirtyeight.com website, Trump seems to be closing the gap with Clinton.


yes....the race has been tightening for about 3 weeks now....and the NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE IS LIKELY WITHIN 3% - 4%now (down from about 8%).

At present, if Clinton lost Ohio and Florida, he would win the election considering the "polls plus" or "polls only" forecasts.


No...not true.  As of TODAY....Trump would still need to "flip" another state.  The two most likely states for Trump to flip would be Pennsylvania or Wisconsin (both of which have not gone Republican in AGES).

If you take fivethirtyeights "polls plus forecast" HERE:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

And plug those appropriate red or blue states in the model HERE:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html

You would see that Hillary would win 325 electoral votes to Trumps 212.  THEN....even if you take Nevada, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina AWAY FROM CLINTON.....she STILL wins with 272.

Trump needs to "flip" Pennsylvania or Wisconsin to win.   

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html
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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #144 on: September 07, 2016, 01:26:09 PM »
Having lived in Fort Worth, Texas and Addison, Texas (just north of Dallas) several years ago.....I can't tell you just how MIND BLOWING the next link is:

http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20160907-we-recommend-hillary-clinton-for-u.s.-president.ece

The Dallas Morning News (which is a great paper by the way....I loved it) endorsed Hillary Clinton this morning.  That is about like the New York Yankees endorsing the New York Mets.  I NEVER thought I would see that.

And keep in mind......that Texas is "fairly close" (within 5%)....and Marc Cuban (owner of the Dallas Mavericks and member of the TV "Shark Tank" cast)....has also endorsed Clinton.

Does that open up another "route" for Hillary?  We'll know in another month as more Texas state polling is done.
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Buddy

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #145 on: September 07, 2016, 01:43:03 PM »
If you want to understand how easily some people can be "conned".....then you need to read the article about Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes.

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/elizabeth-holmes-theranos-exclusive

It reminds me A LOT about Donald Trump.  Trump has built up a "smoke and mirrors" brand built on lies and gross exaggerations.  And just like Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos.....a lot of people have "bought in" so to speak.

In Theranos.....people wanted to believe because (a) they wanted to make money, and (b) it would be great for society (blood testing at a fraction of the cost....without having to take a lot of blood out for testing).

If you take the time to read the article slowly.....think about Trump's businesses and his campaign.  Many of the same tactics are used (like attacking the press....and being secretive like not releasing a true medical report and not releasing tax returns....and Trump not using email).
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budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #146 on: September 07, 2016, 04:04:07 PM »
In reference to reply #143, I have to disagree with you Buddy. From what I see of the "polls only" map this morning, all I have to do is add the 47 electoral votes, (florida and ohio combined) to Trump's electoral vote total and that puts him over 270.

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #147 on: September 07, 2016, 04:24:45 PM »
In reference to reply #143, I have to disagree with you Buddy. From what I see of the "polls only" map this morning, all I have to do is add the 47 electoral votes, (florida and ohio combined) to Trump's electoral vote total and that puts him over 270.


I think you are "reading" the fivethirtyeight.com INCORRECTLY.

If you would have done as I suggested......IE:  Take the RED STATES and the BLUE STATES from 538.com....and "plugged" those states into the "state calculation model link" that I provided for you....you would have come up with the numbers I said you would come up with.

Fivethirtyeight.com runs THOUSANDS of "iterations".  Here is the last run:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

You can't just "take Florida and Ohio" and ADD IT TO THE NUMBER THAT 538 has.  If you look at the MAP from the 538 link......you WON'T COME UP WITH 304.6.  You see....538 uses "shades" of states to denote how close or far away from "even" they are.

If you DO what I asked you to do in the LAST MESSAGE.....you will see that.....indeed....Clinton will win (as of NOW) UNLESS TRUMP WINS PENNSYLVANIA or WISCONSIN.  it is a BASIC MATH QUESTION.....which you can PROVE.....by plugging in the numbers as I noted on my last message.

You see.....538.com's "number" of 232 votes for Trump as of now.....ALREADY INCLUDES HIS 45% CHANCE OF WINNING FLORIDA and 45% CHANCE OF WINNING OHIO.  You would be "double counting" by the number ALREADY INCLUDED IN 538.com's number.  AND....you would be giving Donald Trump a 100% chance of winning both Ohio and Florida.

Trust me.  Go to Realclearpolitics.com....and do as I had noted....and you can run any number of combinations you want.  You will find that AS OF NOW.....Pennsylvania or Wisconsin HAVE TO BE FLIPPED BY TRUMP.  It is basic math (not trying to be "snarky".....it is a math question).

So....go to the link below....and plug in the numbers from the 538.com site....INTO THE REALCLEARPOLITICS "make your own map" site....and you will prove it for yourself.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo


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budmantis

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #148 on: September 07, 2016, 04:41:45 PM »
I'll have to reconsider what you said Buddy. For the moment, I still think it is as simple as adding and subtracting, but as my wife likes to point out at times, I can be wrong even when I think I'm right! I'll do as you suggested over the next couple days and get back to you.

Buddy

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Re: What Would a Donald Trump Presidency Mean to Combating AGW/CC
« Reply #149 on: September 07, 2016, 04:44:26 PM »
I'll have to reconsider what you said Buddy. For the moment, I still think it is as simple as adding and subtracting, but as my wife likes to point out at times, I can be wrong even when I think I'm right! I'll do as you suggested over the next couple days and get back to you.

It only takes about 5 minutes to do the realclearpolitics model.  It adds/subtracts as you go.  It's easy...and you will find indeed find out that your wife was right ;)
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