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Author Topic: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)  (Read 29242 times)

Buddy

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #200 on: December 30, 2016, 01:19:13 PM »
Speaking of stupidity......I see that the Kochheads are at it again in Wisconsin.   Of course...they have two of their favorite stooges in Paul Ryan and Scott Walker working for them.

https://thinkprogress.org/wisconsin-dnr-climate-change-information-purge-d9ac20755540#.tzzkm61bx

I guess the University Of Wisconsin doesn't have a science department anymore.  When are they going to change the laws of mathematics as well?

And lying comes so easily to Scott Walker and Paul Ryan.  It just FLOWSSSSSS off their tongues.
FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #201 on: January 05, 2017, 05:50:12 PM »
In addition to physical masking factors, the current AR5 climate projections are underestimated due to masking of both observed and paleo data, and by model bias as discussed in the following recent references.  Thus is yet another example of human stupidity that our recent policies have not made sufficient provisions for such masking of relatively high climate sensitivity in the reported input data.

The first reference indicates that recent SST values have been systemically under-reported (see the attached image.

Zeke Hausfather, Kevin Cowtan, David C. Clarke, Peter Jacobs, Mark Richardson and Robert Rohde (04 Jan 2017), "Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records", Science Advances, Vol. 3, no. 1, e1601207, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1601207

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/e1601207

The second linked article is entitled: "Fossil leaves suggest global warming will be harder to fight than scientists thought", and it presents new evidence about paleo-atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (indicating lower values than previously assumed) that indicate that climate sensitivity is likely higher than most current climate scientists assume:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/fossil-leaves-suggest-global-warming-will-be-harder-fight-scientists-thought


Extract: "Now, scientists have developed a new method for wringing CO2 estimates from fossilized leaves—one that can go deeper into the past, and with more certainty. “At the moment, it’s very promising and it’s probably the best tool that we’ve got,” says David Beerling, a biogeochemist at the University of Sheffield in the United Kingdom who helped develop the so-called fossil leaf gas exchange technique. Already, it is solving ancient climate puzzles and delivering some unsettling news about the future.

… in applications of the method to times between 100 million and 400 million years ago, Franks finds hints of a foreboding message. During documented episodes of global warmth, he says, the method reveals relatively low CO2 values, nothing like the levels of 2000 ppm or more suggested by other proxies. If these downward revisions hold, Earth may be even more sensitive to injections of CO2 than current models predict. “Temperatures are going to climb further for less carbon and we better be mindful of that,” Franks says."

Lastly, the third linked reference and the associated fourth linked commentary by Rahmstorf entitled: "The underestimated danger of a breakdown of the Gulf Stream System", indicate that climate models over-estimate the stability of the AMOC; which increases the probability that Hansen's positive ice-climate feedback is reasonably accurate:

Wei Liu, Shang-Ping Xie, Zhengyu Liu and Jiang Zhu (04 Jan 2017), "Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate", Science Advances, Vol. 3, no. 1, e1601666, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1601666

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/e1601666

&

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/01/the-underestimated-danger-of-a-breakdown-of-the-gulf-stream-system/

Extract: "According to the observational data, the AMOC is exporting freshwater, which is why freshwater will accumulate in the Atlantic when the AMOC breaks down. That is precisely the instability described by Stommel 1961 and Broecker 1987. In the models, on the other hand, the AMOC in most cases imports freshwater, so the flow is fundamentally stable there. The differences in AMOC stability between different models cannot be understood without the fundamental criterion of whether the AMOC imports or exports freshwater, and by what amount. Liu et al. 2014 have identified a known common bias in all coupled climate GCMs without flux adjustments, the “tropical bias”, which makes them import freshwater in contrast to what observations show for the real ocean. A model bias towards stability is also consistent with the fact that most models underestimate the cooling trend observed in the subpolar Atlantic, which is indicative of an ongoing significant AMOC weakening, as we have argued (Rahmstorf et al. 2015).
...
There are, therefore, two reasons why thus far we could have underestimated the risk of a breakdown of the Gulf Stream System. First, climate models probably have a systematic bias towards stable flow. Secondly, most of them do not take into account the melting ice of Greenland. As the new studies show, each of these factors alone can lead to a much stronger weakening of the Gulf Stream system. We now need to study how these two factors work together. I hope these worrying new results will encourage as many other research groups as possible to pursue this question with their own models!"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #202 on: January 06, 2017, 12:51:41 AM »
W.R.T. my last post, especially the article indicating that fossilized plant leaves indicate that deep paleo values of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations were lower than previously assumes increases the possibility of an abrupt transition to an equable climate (see also Reply #158) by 2100 if we stay on a BAU pathway.  The possibility of an equable climate this century represents an extreme climate change impact.  However, the linked reference by Jones et. al. (2016) indicates that interventions by decision-makers to address consensus-levels of possible climate impacts are unlikely to succeed without significant improvements of climate risk communicated to such decision makers.

Lindsey Jones, Clara Champalle, Sabrina Chesterman, Laura Cramer & Todd & A. Crane (2016), "Constraining and enabling factors to using long-term climate information in decision-making", Climate Policy, DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2016.1191008

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1191008
or
https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/10681.pdf

Abstract: "We carry out a structured review of the peer-reviewed literature to assess the factors that constrain and enable the uptake of long-term climate information in a wide range of sectoral investment and planning decisions. Common applications of long-term climate information are shown to relate to urban planning and infrastructure, as well as flood and coastal management. Analysis of the identified literature highlights five categories of constraints: disconnection between users and producers of climate information, limitations of climate information, financial and technical constraints, political economy and institutional constraints and finally psycho-social constraints. Five categories of enablers to the uptake of long-term climate information in decision making are also identified: collaboration and bridge work, increased accessibility of climate information, improvement in the underlying science, institutional reform and windows of opportunity for building trust.

Policy relevance

Our review suggests that stand-alone interventions aimed at promoting the uptake of climate information into decision-making are unlikely to succeed without genuine and sustained relationships between producers and users. We also highlight that not every decision requires consideration of long-term climate information for successful outcomes to be achieved. This is particularly the case in the context of developing countries, where the immediacy of development challenges means that decision makers often prioritize short-term interventions. Care should therefore be taken to ensure that information is targeted towards investments and planning decisions that are relevant to longer-term timescales."

Extract: "… decision makers often call for high levels of certainty in weighing the implications of future options and conveying the nature of the uncertainties is often difficult for scientists.  Decision makers’ desire for certainty also encourages misrepresentation and misunderstanding of uncertainty in climate outputs, masking the true levels of uncertainty associated with future projections."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

DrTskoul

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #203 on: January 06, 2017, 01:22:46 AM »
Fun.... :o :o
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #204 on: January 06, 2017, 04:36:40 AM »
Fun.... :o :o

Not to spoil your fun, but if the WAIS does collapse in the coming decades and if that trigger's Hansen's ice-climate feedback, then even if the thermohaline circulation were to collapse, the atmospheric transport of heat directly from the tropics to the polars (in an equable climate) should be sufficient to prevent the poles from refreezing even without significant heat from the ocean's thermohaline circulation.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

DrTskoul

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #205 on: January 06, 2017, 11:26:16 AM »
Previous comment included a rather healthy dose of sarcasm...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #206 on: January 06, 2017, 05:58:27 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Why Robots Must Learn to Tell Us “No”".  With the ramping-up of the 4th Industrial Revolution in the coming ten years, maybe we should worry less about disobedient machines and more about "devious human masters", as I am concerned that many decision-makers on climate change policy are merely playing dumb, when the actually have a fairly good idea of the true climate change risks.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-robots-must-learn-to-tell-us-ldquo-no-rdquo/

Extract: "Don’t worry about disobedient machines. Devious human masters and misunderstood commands are the real threat."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #207 on: January 07, 2017, 06:43:05 PM »
In 2014 the UN projected a 50% CL world population of 11 billion by 2100 (see DOI: 10.1126/science.1257469), the following linked Worldometer is based on UN data released on July 29, 2015, and it projects a 50% CL world population level of 11.2 billion by 2100.  Today the world population is 7.5 billion people and rapidly rising, and I have little doubt that the next UN world population projection will be higher than its last in 2015.  My best guess is that world population will peak near 10 billion around 2050 and then decline due to human stupidity.

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #208 on: January 07, 2017, 07:13:22 PM »
My best guess is that world population will peak near 10 billion around 2050 and then decline due to human stupidity.


The linked January 4 2017 article is entitled: "Social instability lies ahead, researcher says", and it predicts a peak in social instability in the 2020's; which to my way of thinking promotes the idea of the coming of authoritarianism (ala Trump/Putin) and sustained dependence on fossil fuels through at least 2045-2050 after which Darwin Awards will be handed-out by the bushels.

http://phys.org/news/2017-01-social-instability-lies.html

Extract: "Cliodynamics is a new "transdisciplinary discipline" that treats history as just another science. Ten years ago I started applying its tools to the society I live in: the United States. What I discovered alarmed me.

My research showed that about 40 seemingly disparate (but, according to cliodynamics, related) social indicators experienced turning points during the 1970s. Historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of political turmoil. My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s


… I see no reason to revise the forecast I made three years ago: "We should expect many years of political turmoil, peaking in the 2020s."


So what's to be done? I find myself in the shoes of Hari Seldon, a fictional character in Isaac Asimov's Foundation, whose science of history (which he called psychohistory) predicted the decline and fall of his own society. Should we follow Seldon's lead and establish a Cliodynamic Foundation somewhere in the remote deserts of Australia?

This would be precisely the wrong thing to do. It didn't work even in Isaac Asimov's fictional universe. The problem with secretive cabals is that they quickly become self-serving, and then mire themselves in internecine conflict. Asimov came up with the Second Foundation to watch over the First. But who watches the watchers? In the end it all came down to a uniquely powerful and uniquely benevolent super-robot, R. Daneel Olivaw."

See also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R._Daneel_Olivaw

Edit: To be less subtle, Trump could readily suppress voter sufficiently to get re-elected in 2020 and then get Congress to declare endless war on ISIS (et. al.), which would allow the president to put those he distrusts into internment camps (ala the Japanese in WWII) by 2024.


See also the linked article is entitled: "A Dire Prediction for Trump's First 100 Days".  When Putin became Prime Minister of Russia he had little wealth, after 17-years in power he is now worth over USD $85 Billion;

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/trump-presidency-disaster

Extract: "Why? Because it’s happened before.
In the fall of 1999, just months after then-unknown former FSB agent Vladimir Putin had been sworn in as prime minister of Russia, someone began bombing apartment buildings. Over the course of two terrible months, hundreds of people died in the series of explosions around the country and thousands were injured. As Masha Gessen tells it in her book The Man Without a Face, “panic set in all over the country.” The majority of the country assumed Chechen terrorists were responsible. Paranoia became the national mood and vigilante surveillance the national pastime. Into this chaos stepped Vladimir Putin.

“Putin made one of his first television appearances,” Gessen writes, “‘We will hunt them down,’ he said of the terrorists. ‘Wherever we find them, we will destroy them. Even if we find them in the toilet. We will rub them out in the outhouse.'...His popularity began to soar.”

Putin never looked back. Over the next 17 years, Putin ,  the uniquely unqualified newcomer to political office , became a global authoritarian. Russia was never the same.

Since those fateful days, experts around the world have come to agree that the Russian government was complicit in the terrorist bombings that swept Putin into power.

So, to summarize: In 1999 the FSB, the same organization now suspected of tampering in the U.S. election to tip it in favor of Donald Trump, was caught in the act of planting bombs in civilian apartment buildings in Russia in order to sow chaos and consolidate power for its disputed leader of choice."
« Last Edit: January 07, 2017, 07:28:35 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #209 on: January 07, 2017, 08:03:55 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Why don’t people get it? Seven ways that communicating risk can fail"; and points out that people respond to risk based on emotions and instincts.  Team Trump clearly understands this concept and manipulates the public to their advantage; and it is time that climate hawks come to learn how to better communicate climate change risks.

https://theconversation.com/why-dont-people-get-it-seven-ways-that-communicating-risk-can-fail-68912

Extract: "Good risk communication points out where we are doing hazardous things. It helps us better navigate crises. It also allows us to pre-empt and avoid danger and destruction.

But poor risk communication does the opposite. It creates confusion, helplessness and, worst of all, pushes us to actively work against each other even when it’s against our best interests to do so.

If you’re science-informed – or at least science-positive – you might confuse being rational with using objective, science-based evidence.

To think rationally is to base your thinking in reason or logic. But a conclusion that’s logical doesn’t have to be true. You can link flawed, false or unsubstantiated premises to come up with a logical-but-scientifically-unsubstantiated answer.

If people are already nervous about – or actively against – a risky proposition, one reaction is to demand proof of safety. But safety is a relative term and risk calculation doesn’t work that way.
To demand proof of safety is to demand certainty, and such a demand is scientifically impossible. Uncertainty is at the heart of the scientific method. Or rather, qualifying and communicating degrees of uncertainty is.

In reality, we live in a world where we have to agree on what constitutes acceptable risk, because we simply can’t provide proof of safety.

You may have seen this basic risk calculation formula:

Risk (or hazard) = (the probability of something happening) × (the consequences of it happening)
This works brilliantly for insurance assessors and lab managers, but it quickly falls over when you use it to explain risk in the big bad world.

Everyday reactions to how bad a risk seems are more often ruled by the formula (hazard) × (outrage), where “outrage” is fuelled by non-technical, socially-driven matters.

Basically, the more outraged (horrified, frightened) we are by the idea of something happening, the more likely we are to consider it unacceptable, regardless of how statistically unlikely it might be.

If we humans, who rely on emotional reactions to assess risks, can be confused even by simple numbers, and are easily influenced by oddities of language, what hope is there for making serious progress when trying to talk about huge risky issues such as climate change?

First, don’t knock emotion-driven, instinct-based risk responses: they’re useful."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #210 on: January 08, 2017, 03:09:06 AM »
The two linked article support the positon that we all accelerating into a growing period of crony capitalism and outright kleptocracy:

The first linked article is entitled: "Donald Trump blasts 'fools' who oppose good Russian ties"

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38542415

Extract: "Mr Trump vowed to work with Russia "to solve some of the many... pressing problems and issues of the WORLD!"

His comments came after an intelligence report said Russia's president had tried to aid a Trump election victory.

Mr Trump said Democrats were to blame for "gross negligence" in allowing their servers to be hacked."

The second linked article is entitled :Donald Trump’s glorious victory for anti-intellectualism: “Drain the swamp” just meant the eggheads".

http://www.salon.com/2017/01/07/donald-trumps-glorious-victory-for-anti-intellectualism-drain-the-swamp-just-meant-the-eggheads/

Extract: "For many Trump supporters, the wealthiest cabinet ever is no problem — as long as he gets rid of the smart people

The anti-intellectual mentality values perceived practical qualities over theoretical ones, and tends to think of abstract thinking as close to useless. When Trump called out Washington technocrats as incompetent on the campaign trail, he was appealing to the anti-intellectual impulse that regards all highly educated people as impractical, incompetent eggheads. This naturally leads to the assumption that those who have achieved material success — i.e., wealthy businesspeople — are better equipped to run government with their practical, business-savvy skills and insights. Of course, history tells us the opposite: Businessmen have notoriously made very bad presidents, while most of the top-ranked presidents have been longtime public servants or lawyers with top-tier educations.

When Donald Trump is sworn in as the 45th president, less than two weeks from now, he will bring with him to Washington an administration full of economic elites and industry insiders, and D.C. cronyism will expand to a whole new level. But for many Americans, the fact that all those know-it-all intellectuals — especially the leading know-it-all, constitutional scholar President Barack Obama — will be thrown out is a victory worth celebrating."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #211 on: January 08, 2017, 03:30:28 AM »
The linked Wikipedia article is entitled: "For Want of a Nail", and it discusses a chain of causality that can only be perceived in hindsight.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Want_of_a_Nail

Extract:
"For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the message was lost.
For want of a message the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

Such chains of causality are perceived only in hindsight. No one ever lamented, upon seeing his unshod horse, that the kingdom would eventually fall because of it."

It seems to me that we are now on such a chain of causality where:

For want of staying below 2.6C the WAIS was lost.
For want of the WAIS to thermohaline was lost.
For want of the thermohaline the tropical negative cloud feedback was lost.
For want of the tropical negative cloud feedback the moderate ENSO was lost.
For want of the moderate ENSO carbon sinks were lost.
For want of the carbon sinks the polar ice caps were lost.
For want of polar ice caps the Hadley Cells were lost.
And all of the want of human willpower.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2017, 03:47:22 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #212 on: January 08, 2017, 05:20:52 PM »
The linked January 4 2017 article is entitled: "Social instability lies ahead, researcher says", and it predicts a peak in social instability in the 2020's; which to my way of thinking promotes the idea of the coming of authoritarianism (ala Trump/Putin) and sustained dependence on fossil fuels through at least 2045-2050 after which Darwin Awards will be handed-out by the bushels.

http://phys.org/news/2017-01-social-instability-lies.html



For those not familiar with US history the last trade protectionist president (before Trump) was Herbert Hoover from 1929 to 1933, who presided over the US collapse into the Great Depression.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Hoover

In the theme song for the sitcom "All in the Family" Archie Bunker pines for the Herbert Hoover days, while the following links and attached images make it clear how close Bunker's thinking is to Trump's, and just how close we are to sliding into another Great Depression circa 2025-2027.

Those Were The Days
Boy, the way Glenn Miller played
Songs that made the hit parade
Guys like us, we had it made
Those were the days!
And you knew who you were then
Girls were girls, and men were men
Mister, we could use a man like Herbert Hoover again
Didn't need no welfare state
Everybody pulled his weight
Gee, our old LaSalle ran great
Those were the days!

http://www.salon.com/2015/12/15/this_hilarious_video_proves_beyond_a_doubt_that_donald_trump_is_the_new_archie_bunker/


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaSalle_(automobile)

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #213 on: January 09, 2017, 07:50:37 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "World is ‘backsliding’ on gasoline subsidies, finds study", and it indicates that while taxes on gasoline is effective at reducing CO₂ emissions, such taxes are now lower than they were 13 years ago.  This indicates the effectiveness of the fossil fuel lobby and the ineffectiveness of rational human behavior:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/world-backsliding-gasoline-subsidies

Taxes on gasoline effectively reduce CO2 emissions, yet they are lower now than they were 13 years ago, finds a new study.

The associated linked reference is entitled: "Global Progress and Backsliding on Gasoline Taxes and Subsidies".

http://www.nature.com/articles/nenergy2016201
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #214 on: January 10, 2017, 01:01:22 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Short-lived greenhouse gases cause centuries of sea-level rise", indicates that we should be concerned about short-lived GHGs even if they are only in the atmosphere for a few decades:

http://phys.org/news/2017-01-short-lived-greenhouse-gases-centuries-sea-level.html

For the associated reference see:

Zickfeld et. al. (2016), "Centuries of thermal sea-level rise due to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases", PNAS doi: 10.1073/pnas.1612066114
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/01/03/1612066114

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #215 on: January 11, 2017, 02:31:51 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "White House Urges Research on Geoengineering to Combat Global Warming".  I suspect that by the 2040's, TPTB will implement some form of geoengineering, whether they understand the consequences (think about the thermohaline circulation) or not.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/10/science/geoengineering-climate-change-global-warming.html?_r=0

Extract: "The document, an update of a report that lays out a plan for climate-related research at 13 federal agencies until 2021, calls for studies related to the two most-discussed approaches to geoengineering: distributing chemicals in the atmosphere to reflect more heat-producing sunlight away from the earth, and removing carbon dioxide from the air so the atmosphere traps less heat."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #216 on: January 11, 2017, 04:45:38 PM »
Can't wait for the little ice age of 2040 and mass starvation brought on by our valiant geoengineering efforts </sarc>....

F#@## morons....
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #217 on: January 11, 2017, 07:20:04 PM »
F#@## morons....

this !!!!!

and they are criminals for sure because they can't make me believe that they're that stupid for not knowing better.

just never us that word together with a name if you're not US-Citizen, that will cost you the VISA waiver otherwise LOL ( I know first hand, in my case it was GWB in 2001 )
http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #218 on: January 19, 2017, 04:57:19 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Climate science bedeviled by 'tipping points'".  This article partially illustrates how stupid humans are with regard to the risks of abrupt:

(1) Today we are increasing the atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at a faster rate than any time in the past 66 million years and that is not counting other GHGs that boost use to an even higher rate, and none of our climate models are adequately calibrated to reflect the influence of such high rates of radiative forcing.

(2) 'Tipping Points' (including climate attractors) are essentially invisible (i.e. within the thin right-tail of the projected PDFs)  to our current generation of climate models; so consensus scientists say that since they do not see the 'tipping points' in their model projections, we are probably safe from them (which is denialist thinking).

(3) Recent paleo-assessments indicate that when considering the influence of climate attractors, ESS is likely at least 50% higher than consensus science currently acknowledges as our current climate models do not consider climate attractors so they do not need to acknowledge their likely influence (which is denialist thinking).

(4) Denialist thinking essentially believes that as mankind has been fortunate enough to have experienced very mild climate change for the past 11,000 years, we are entitled to experience mild climate change in the future.

https://phys.org/news/2017-01-climate-science-bedeviled.html

Extract: "Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere today are higher than any time in the last three million years, and are increasing more rapidly than at any point in the last 66 million years

Of the many things that keep climate scientists awake at night, tipping points may be the scariest.

To start with, these thresholds for deep, sometimes catastrophic change in the complex web of Earth's natural forces, caused by man-made global warming, are largely invisible.

James Hansen, former head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has argued that West Antarctica could disintegrate rapidly, adding up to a couple of metres to ocean levels this century.
But most experts say humanity is still within a "safe operating space" for the ice sheets, even if the margin for error has become uncomfortably thin.

Other tipping points could trigger the natural release, on a massive scale, of the same greenhouse gases that humans have spewed into the atmosphere, further destabilising the delicate balance that has made our planet so liveable over the last 11,000 years."


See also:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/cat-in-hells-chance-why-losing-battle-keep-global-warming-2c-climate-change
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #219 on: February 02, 2017, 11:39:08 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Overpopulation: What Policies Are Needed to Solve This Problem?".  It is looking more & more like large-scale Darwin Awards seems to be the only outcome of 'human stupidity'.

http://edmdigest.com/preparedness/overpopulation-policies-needed-problem/


Extract: "Two-thirds of animal species could be extinct by 2020. Elephants, giraffes, tigers, orangutans, gorillas, and cheetahs are already endangered. This is the result of human activity, most notably habitat takeover for housing or farmland to grow our food.

Many of us think we are “doing our bit.” We recycle, use efficient appliances, reduce our meat consumption or avoid it altogether, and seek out alternative fuel sources. But all of these efforts combined do not address overpopulation.

Earth Overshoot Day, the day when we have theoretically used up the Earth’s natural resources for the year, came early in 2016. By August 8, 2016, humanity was in debt and living well beyond its means. With more consumers, Earth Overshoot Day 2017 is expected to come even sooner.

On January 14, Richard Horton, the editor-in-chief of the British medical journal The Lancet, wrote about the “possible impossibility” of universal health coverage in the wake of unsustainable population growth.

People see reproduction as a basic human right and do not want it taken away from them."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #220 on: February 03, 2017, 06:07:53 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Greenland Ice Sheet Melting 600 Percent Faster Than Predicted by Current Models".  We should all remember that:  "What happens in the Arctic, doesn't stay in the Arctic."

http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=18252

Extract: "The climate is very capable of changing to another stable state unfavorable to the human species, and this is a real danger of our global experiment with unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, says Arctic ice specialist David Barber."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #221 on: February 04, 2017, 05:23:13 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Earthworm numbers dwindle, threatening soil health", and to me this is but one example of how humankind is shooting itself in the foot (particularly w.r.t. future food production).

http://www.dw.com/en/earthworm-numbers-dwindle-threatening-soil-health/a-37325923

Extract: "Earthworms, it seems, are the unsung heroes of our world. Labeled slimy and disgusting by many, these lowly invertebrates work unseen and underground where they till, fertilize and improve soil.

But environmentalists are concerned that industrial agricultural practices are making life difficult for this surprisingly important animal.

Intensive use of manure and acidic soil with a pH value below five harm the worm, although it remains unclear whether herbicides affect earthworm's ability to reproduce.

Still, one thing is for sure: the destruction of its habitat every few months with heavy machinery stresses the animal.

Still, the WWF warns of a "dangerous chain reaction for humanity," and has called for politics and society to encourage an agricultural sector more focused on soil and humus-friendly farming. The goal of the EU's farming policy should be the promotion and maintenance of natural soil fertility, said WWF's Wilhelm.

At a time when development is swallowing up more and more countryside, good soil is becoming increasingly important to ensure a secure food supply for the world's growing population. Long-term soil fertility and the ability of farmland to recuperate are under threat and protecting earthworms with their ability to improve soil should be an agricultural goal.

Research has shown there are solutions. "Using a soil cover with a catch crop such as grass during winter led to a sharp rise in earthworms," Fründ said. It's a glimmer of hope for these underground dwellers."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #222 on: February 05, 2017, 12:28:22 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Commentary: Forget the Anthropocene. Welcome to the Idiocene".  With the coming of the Trump Administration we have moved from BAU to the Beavis and Butthead era.

http://www.environmentalhealthnews.org/ehs/news/2017/feb/commentary-forget-the-anthropocene.-welcome-to-the-idiocene

Extract: "Will the daily barrage of falsehoods, insults, and boneheaded moves give cover to the business of dismantling environmental protection?

The first glimpses of a Trump Administration in action have, to most citizens in America and abroad, been quite unnerving. Appalling. Unsettling. In other words, everything that his pre-election conduct promised us.

And chances are that someone who reads an environmental page like this one would already know these things. But beyond the small circle of us who follow this stuff closely, the rollbacks, science purges, and outright denial of scientific fact will continue, buried at the bottom of a broad heap of absurdity.

Don’t rely on the nation’s political press to give a rip, or have a clue."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #223 on: February 20, 2017, 07:24:14 PM »
I agree with Carl that we need to better educate the common man throughout the world:

"We’ve arranged a society on science and technology in which nobody understands anything about science and technology, and this combustible mixture of ignorance and power sooner or later is going to blow up in our faces. I mean, who is running the science and technology in a democracy if the people don’t know anything about it?" – Carl Sagan to Charlie Rose, May 27, 1996
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #224 on: February 20, 2017, 07:33:03 PM »
Even worse,

We have arranged a society where the individual success is extolled, but having left the common human without the means ( educational,  social,  financial) to succeed. And then we display  other people's successes 24/7 through all the media leading to humiliation and anger.  The science can become an easy target for their anger because it is even more obscure...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #225 on: February 20, 2017, 08:57:15 PM »
Even worse,

We have arranged a society where the individual success is extolled, but having left the common human without the means ( educational,  social,  financial) to succeed. And then we display  other people's successes 24/7 through all the media leading to humiliation and anger.  The science can become an easy target for their anger because it is even more obscure...


Revenge of the nerds, or the 'globalists' strike back:

The first linked article is entitled: "Mark Zuckerberg: Progress ‘requires’ embrace of ‘global community’"

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/feb/17/mark-zuckerberg-facebook-founder-progress-requires/

Extract: " Facebook founder Marck Zuckerberg left no doubt Thursday where he stands on the issue of globalism: progress “requires” it, he said.

Mr. Zuckerberg said in a statement called “Building Global Community” on his social-media platform that globalism is “the next step” for humanity, even if advocates face tough questions whether they can “make a global community that works for everyone.”

“Our greatest opportunities are now global — like spreading prosperity and freedom, promoting peace and understanding, lifting people out of poverty, and accelerating science,” Mr. Zuckerberg wrote. “Our greatest challenges also need global responses — like ending terrorism, fighting climate change, and preventing pandemics. Progress now requires humanity coming together not just as cities or nations, but also as a global community.”"

See also:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/shortcuts/2017/feb/17/facebook-manifesto-mark-zuckerberg-letter-world-politics
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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DrTskoul

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #226 on: February 20, 2017, 09:27:36 PM »
The last time around, a united Europe and United Nations was the result of WWII. I hope the new globalism is not the result of something similar.  There no examples of peaceful transitions of such magnitude. And I don't think that the technocratic Elite puts themselves into the place of the common man in India or Africa when they envision the new future...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #227 on: February 20, 2017, 10:56:44 PM »
The last time around, a united Europe and United Nations was the result of WWII. I hope the new globalism is not the result of something similar.  There no examples of peaceful transitions of such magnitude. And I don't think that the technocratic Elite puts themselves into the place of the common man in India or Africa when they envision the new future...

I imagine that Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page, etc., believe that they trying to help the common man in India and Africa (etc.); however, whether they actually end-up doing so is an entirely different matter.

https://www.philanthropyforum.org/

&

https://www.philanthropyforum.org/issues/humanitarian-assistance-and-refugees/videos/day-3-highlights-gpf16

Especially see the video entitled: "Feeding the Next 7 Billion"
« Last Edit: February 20, 2017, 11:05:06 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #228 on: February 22, 2017, 02:09:12 PM »
The last time around, a united Europe and United Nations was the result of WWII. I hope the new globalism is not the result of something similar.  There no examples of peaceful transitions of such magnitude. And I don't think that the technocratic Elite puts themselves into the place of the common man in India or Africa when they envision the new future...


I spoke to a former Belgian ambassador to Canada some months back.


According to him in the "old EU" the nations felt that they made progress by ceding portions of their sovereignty for the general good. Their motivation was the history of periodic wars that they had all suffered, wars that had become increasingly damaging.


The former Soviet states, having only recently won their sovereignty, consider it their most precious asset. Under the USSR's blanket their trade, defense, and borders were set by a larger entity. They tend to see progress in their individuality, giving up as little as possible to receive the economic benefits of the EU.


The "old EU" believes that they have discovered a better way forward and assumes that the rest of the world will catch up at some point. They never truly accepted Britain as a full member and aren't terribly hurt or surprised at Brexit. Greece or Italy however are seen as essential and he is sure that a way will be found to escape from the economic problems now facing them.


He had a rather un-American stance, feeling that a European army would soon be in place and that NATO could then be dispensed with by "old EU". He sees Britain and America as natural allies, but would like closer relations between Europe and Canada, seeing the recent trade deal in a positive light.


His positions weren't those I'd have expected of a lifetime diplomat from "old Europe". He sounded as though he considered the recent additions of former Soviet states to the EU as a parasitic drag. slowing acceptance of the enlightened philosophy that guides the rest. If he is asked, I doubt he'd willingly offer European lives should one of the Baltic states find itself fighting.
He skipped around questions regarding recent Muslim migration into Europe, seemingly resentful that America wasn't acting responsibly for a problem that he believed they had caused.
One of his anecdotes was that the immigrants that caused Brexit to secede were from Poland.
Uncomfortable for me as my companion was a Polish-Canadian. ::)


Terry

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #229 on: February 22, 2017, 04:45:26 PM »
Terry,

 They were indeed polish. Many years ago before the Greeks complained about the Syrian and Pakistani and Bangladeshi and African immigrants, they first complained about Albanian and Polish immigrants.

I don't think your contact has it quite right to blame US for the immigration wave. Even if US has not had their arms in the Middle East mess, the economic and climate facts of Middle East would have created their own mess. Droughts and food security would have created a similar results. I mean does the US have anything to do with the Bangladeshi and Pakistani immigrants ? Most of them are villagers and farmers that the weather and floods and drought and sea rise  have devastated. 
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #230 on: February 23, 2017, 09:46:55 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Climate-Friendlier Air Conditioning Chemicals Hard to Find, Study Shows".  It is easy for policy makers to break their arms patting themselves on the back when the cameras are rolling and then to under deliver once the media has moved on to other issues.  This is not good news for the wellbeing of the planet.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22022017/climate-change-refrigerants-montreal-protocol-hfc-global-warming-donald-trump

Extract: "Replacing HFCs as a coolant is the goal of a global accord, but so far, economical alternatives all show some flaws.

When nearly 200 countries agreed last October to dramatically reduce their reliance on climate change-polluting chemicals called hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in air conditioning and refrigeration, the hunt for alternatives was already underway. Now, a new study in the journal Nature Communications that comprehensively explored pure liquid options found only 27 candidates, and problems with all of them.

Under the Kigali Amendment, the United States and Europe are the first to start significantly cutting back their use of HFCs; these countries also agreed to help fund the research and commercialization of alternative technologies. The goal is that by the time developing countries start making big cuts, alternatives will have flooded the market and their prices will have dropped enough to be affordable. It remains an open question whether this will happen.

Moreover, the United States agreed to these commitments under the Obama administration and it's unknown whether President Donald Trump will change course. Although Trump has pledged to roll back domestic climate policies, and has spoken of pulling the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement, he has not yet indicated his plans for the HFCs agreement."


See also the associated open access reference:
http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14476

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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #231 on: March 10, 2017, 12:30:33 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Climate change is a white swan".  I think that this article is erring on the side of least drama

http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2988686/climate_change_is_a_white_swan.html

Extract: "There is a spectre haunting our society, our world, our common future: the spectre of a ‘slow' anthropogenically-induced climatically-induced cataclysm. Why call it a ‘spectre'? Because it seems unreal to us. An air of unreality hangs pervasively over our situation. If climate change were really as bad as all that, then we'd really be doing something about it...right?

But there is also a basic way in which the case of climate is very different from the case of finance, or that of GM (or that of nuclear, or that of ‘the singularity'; and so on). It is this: it has been shown beyond reasonable doubt that anything remotely like a BAU path puts us on course for climate-nemesis.

The incipient climate chaos is a white swan. It would be the ultimate marker of sheer stupidity, as well as of shame and short-termist selfishness, if humanity succumbs to it."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #232 on: March 19, 2017, 05:55:35 PM »
With the coming of the 4th Industrial Revolution together with climate change stress; the better that people and society learn to deal with change the less suffering will occur (and vice versa), therefore I provide the attached image related to human response to change from the following source:

Williams, D. (1999). Life Events and Career Change: Transition Psychology in Practice. British Psychological Society Occupational Psychology Conference. Leicester: British Psychological Society

As freedom is associated with change, the better we deal with change the more free we will be, both individually, and collectively.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #233 on: March 20, 2017, 01:55:44 AM »
Due to the Peter Principle, I am not confident that the coming (circa 2045 to 2060) socioeconomic collapse can be avoided.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 06:27:42 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #234 on: March 20, 2017, 02:22:22 AM »
Due to the Peter Principle, I am not confident that the coming (circa 2045 to 2060) socioeconomic can be avoided.

assuming you mean "collapse" as the missing word i agree with the principle but think you are quite optimistic with the time frame, i have been eyeballing the years between 2025-2030 ;)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #235 on: March 20, 2017, 06:29:39 PM »
Due to the Peter Principle, I am not confident that the coming (circa 2045 to 2060) socioeconomic can be avoided.

assuming you mean "collapse" as the missing word i agree with the principle but think you are quite optimistic with the time frame, i have been eyeballing the years between 2025-2030 ;)

Thanks.  I added the word 'collapse', and only time will tell when and how bad the collapse will be/occur.
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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #236 on: March 20, 2017, 08:35:06 PM »

Thanks.  I added the word 'collapse', and only time will tell when and how bad the collapse will be/occur.

absolutely, can happen any time, only thing i'm sure about is that it will happen, we're already a lucky generation to enjoy 70 years without major disruption on home soils, this side and that side of the big pond :-)
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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #237 on: April 10, 2017, 09:25:41 PM »
The linked report is entitled: "Globalization and Infectious Diseases: A Review of the Linkages".  The attached image from this reference indicates that with continuing global warming, infectious diseases become a more impactful problem.  I believe that the public and particularly the alt-right populist decision makers are not giving such considerations full weight.

http://www.who.int/tdr/publications/documents/seb_topic3.pdf

Extract: "Globalization is a complex and multi-faceted set of processes having diverse and widespread impacts on human societies worldwide."
« Last Edit: April 10, 2017, 11:11:56 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #238 on: April 11, 2017, 07:18:32 PM »
Most decision makers assume that they are entitled to use Transient Climate Response, TCR, values in their policy making decisions; however, as indicated in the first attached image ECS is about 50% higher than TCR; while the linked 2015 PennState article entitled: "Earth System Sensitivity"; indicates that ESS is about 50% higher than ECS (see the second attached image).  Thus if TCR is at the high end of its estimated range, and as climate sensitivity is logarithmic with time, we could well see a lot higher effective climate response this century than most decision makers are expecting:

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo469/node/219

Extract: "Studies using climate models that incorporate these slow feedbacks find that the Earth System sensitivity is indeed substantially greater than the nominal Charney sensitivity, roughly 50% higher."

Caption for the second image: "Figure 8.12: Equilibrium warming as a function of CO2 concentration assuming a Charney sensitivity range of 3°C +/-1.5°C (lower curve=1.5°C, middle curve=3.0°C, upper curve=4.5°C), compared with actual estimates of CO2 concentration and global mean temperature for past geological periods where CO2 levels appear to have been higher than today (black circles)."

Edit: I note that at the end of 2015 the equivalent carbon dioxide concentration value was 485ppm which is what counts when estimating temperature impacts; & I guess that this value was no less than 489ppm at the end of 2016.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #239 on: April 15, 2017, 05:45:21 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "The New World Order: Failing States and Collapsing Systems", and it indicates that our systemic global inability to face the various truths of our rapidly changing world condition is accelerating the formation of failed states (e. g.: Syria, Nigeria, etc.) and collapsing global socio-economic systems (e. g.: the spread of alt-right populism with a focus on intensifying conflicts).  This inability to face hard truths is an example of human mental illness (e. g.: addictions and aversions).

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/04/14/Failing-States-Collapsing-Systems/

Extract: "When oil prices were low, human economies gobbled oil and expanded like clownish balloons, but whenever prices rose and oil demand slackened, the economy shrank.
But the see-saw has ended and the economy is now having trouble digesting a new diet: unconventional fuels and in some cases, renewables, all delivering diminished returns and funded by easy credit and wild debt.

As Ahmed notes, global oil and gas production once offered God-like energy returns of 100 to one. For every barrel spent finding and extracting oil, society secured a hefty surplus or what the ecologist Charles Hall famously described as “EROI”: energy return on investment. Unprecedented net returns fueled the unnatural scale of economic growth for 100 years.
But those bountiful energy returns are now falling off a cliff. Today, net energy returns average around 15 to one. Once returns drops below 10 per barrel of energy expended, fossil fuels can’t generate enough surpluses to pay for the arts, government and society as we know it, let alone a transition to renewable energy.

As the quality of fuels decline, the global economy, a highly engineered tree fertilized by cheap oil, has registered the change as “economic stagnation” and stopped growing. 

This energy descent is taking place just as the globe’s fossil fuel economy has transgressed several biophysical limits to growth, including climate change, the decimation of wild creatures and the alteration of the world’s nitrogen cycles from fertilizer abuse.
Climate change is now undoing economies and shifting populations. Heat waves and drought propelled by disruptive carbon emissions could put a third of the world’s population at risk of starving by 2050. The more we disrupt earth systems, warns Ahmed, the more we destabilize human systems.

So Trump and anti-Muslim rhetoric is what happens when you ignore a qualitative change in energy resources and a decline in the Earth’s resources.
Meanwhile the mainstream media prefers to focus on chaos and terrorism, and ignore the many-headed hydra quietly engineering these spectacles.
“Human systems — social, political, geopolitical, cultural, and so on — are becoming destabilized in the context of escalating Earth System Disruption driven by dependence on fossil fuels,” writes Ahmed."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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gerontocrat

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #240 on: April 15, 2017, 07:10:03 PM »
Is it not a surprise that a thread on Human Stupidity has only got to Page 5 ?

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #241 on: April 15, 2017, 09:02:48 PM »
Is it not a surprise that a thread on Human Stupidity has only got to Page 5 ?

What some consider to be a cup half empty, is a cup half full to others.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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prokaryotes

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #242 on: April 15, 2017, 11:02:40 PM »
When it is human stupidity that has caused climate change, why do so many think that humans will be able to avoid exceeding the 2C target?
Humans have not caused climate change per se, more like unknowingly - at least to some degree. Something every evolving species on a habitable planet in the Universe encounters, burning fossil fuels at one point.

Then the fact that our Society is primarily driven by decisions made at the top, via elected officials, or people who influence power over them. We are well aware of climate change and that it means problems since at least the 80s, theoretically enough time to act. But it seems that we as individuals for the most part are too busy with everyday life, our work, with newly obtained technologies in the information age, to understand the gravity of what future temperature rise entails.

So on the one side you have the concerned educated guy who understands the science, or at least is cautious enough about the looming fundamental changes, and on the other side the influencers who make the rules. And in some progressive countries this seems to work actually, for example Denmark or Scotland with their 100% renewable energy generation targets. Germany also has a great commitment to solar and wind power, but most cars on the street are still spewing fossil fuel exhaust, and coal power plants are still running.

To better understand our actions we can go back into the past and see many civilizations failed before us, even today as we speak many nations have collapsed or are on the bring to it, because of war, or economic mismanagement, sometimes enhanced by climatic factors, a trend very likely to become more pronounced, hence more strain for weaker nations in the years ahead.

Recently, i came across the theory that our overly optimistic attitude toward the future, the idea that everything will be better, is partially responsible for the situation today, or the lack of actions taken today. While i long regarded myself as an optimist, i think to be more of a pessimist now, or maybe just a pragmatic realist.

If we can draw any conclusion from the past, at large, simplified, then it almost seems as if our species unknowingly only learns from collapse.
 
Joseph Tainter talks Energy, Collapse, and Society (2015)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KeY1dIPi8k

Walter Scheidel on Society, Collapse and Equality
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQ0_oj_V64Q

However, if you want big change, sometimes it is good if you have exactly the opposite direction taken, which apparently will make more and more people uncomfortable. And then the overly optimistic attitude that human imagination, research and inventions will somehow come up at a later time with a fix. Happened quite often actually, but first all other options were exhausted. But those problems are very small in comparison to altering the chemistry of the atmosphere and oceans. The question is, will it be too late by then to avert more serious harm, harm on an extinction level, for our and the other species on the planet.

Basically large scale catastrophes are required to change the behavior of our species at large, but the catastrophes which come with a much warmer world have the power to destroy our civilization. And then factor into that equation the nuclear power capabilities of many nations. A 2 degree and beyond world, disrupted by climate chaos makes people even more trigger happy.  This means that there will likely be an exponential rise of various sorts of catastrophes (Flooded coastlines, flooded agricultural land, flooded power plants, flooded dumb sites, heatwaves overwhelming the energy grid, food shortages, plagues, diseases,  financial loses because beach property becomes worthless, contamination of the water and food chain related to flooding, precipitation events damaging infrastructure, properties, the toll on the psyche of individuals affected, warmer temperatures result in more violent tendencies, and so on)

No, i do not think that we will avoid 2 degree temperature rise, because i have yet to see an emission chart and the required actions to make this miracle happen.

prokaryotes

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #243 on: April 15, 2017, 11:15:27 PM »
Since the topic title includes Human Mental Illness, which seems a bit off-topic, you might find this read interesting.

Neanderthal genes' effects on gene expression likely contribute to traits such as height and susceptibility to schizophrenia or lupus, the researchers found.
"Even 50,000 years after the last human-Neanderthal mating, we can still see measurable impacts on gene expression," says geneticist and study co-author Joshua Akey of the University of Washington School of Medicine. "And those variations in gene expression contribute to human phenotypic variation and disease susceptibility."


Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-02-neanderthal-dna-contributes-human-gene.html#jCp

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #244 on: April 16, 2017, 12:04:01 AM »
Since the topic title includes Human Mental Illness, which seems a bit off-topic, you might find this read interesting.

The main point of adjusting the topic title is that aside from a very small amount of uncertainty, decision makers are fully aware that our combined societal behavior will likely lead to climate catastrophe; which is an example of our stupid collective  behavior due to the mental illness of the decision makers (you can decide for yourself whether you are a decision maker or not) which make them unable to control such stupid behavior.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

prokaryotes

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #245 on: April 16, 2017, 12:15:12 AM »
..decision makers are fully aware that our combined societal behavior will likely lead to climate catastrophe; which is an example of our stupid collective  behavior due to the mental illness of the decision makers

“One does not play games, or take chances, when essentially the whole of civilization and humanity MAY be in peril.”
http://climatestate.com/2013/05/03/false-climate-change-data-a-crime-against-humanity-ecocide/

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #246 on: April 16, 2017, 12:57:20 AM »
I provide the following quote from the linked Wikipedia article entitled: "Prisoner's dilemma" (see also the attached quotes from the movie The Matrix), that indicates that in 'wicked problems' like climate change, uncertainty makes it much less likely that we will avoid climate catastrophe than for cases follow clear rules.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma

Extract: "In environmental studies, the PD is evident in crises such as global climate-change. It is argued all countries will benefit from a stable climate, but any single country is often hesitant to curb CO2 emissions. The immediate benefit to any one country from maintaining current behavior is wrongly perceived to be greater than the purported eventual benefit to that country if all countries' behavior was changed, therefore explaining the impasse concerning climate-change in 2007.

An important difference between climate-change politics and the prisoner's dilemma is uncertainty; the extent and pace at which pollution can change climate is not known. The dilemma faced by government is therefore different from the prisoner's dilemma in that the payoffs of cooperation are unknown. This difference suggests that states will cooperate much less than in a real iterated prisoner's dilemma, so that the probability of avoiding a possible climate catastrophe is much smaller than that suggested by a game-theoretical analysis of the situation using a real iterated prisoner's dilemma.

Osang and Nandy provide a theoretical explanation with proofs for a regulation-driven win-win situation along the lines of Michael Porter's hypothesis, in which government regulation of competing firms is substantial."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #247 on: April 16, 2017, 01:01:22 AM »
One line of deductive logic that we are all headed for climate catastrophe, sooner rather than later, is as follows:

- I believe that as soon as Hansen's ice-climate positive feedback mechanism kicks in for real (i.e. when the Byrd Subglacial Basin, in West Antarctica collapses), the associated multi-decadal surge in planetary energy imbalance will push the Arctic Sea Ice over a tipping point.

- DeConto & Polland 2016 have indicated that the WAIS will begin to rapidly collapse before GMSTA reaches 2.7C (due to hydrofracturing & cliff failures of the marine glaciers), and the first image shows the timeframe assuming ECS = 3C.

- However, I believe that ECS = 4.5C which corresponds to the upper curve in the second attached image showing final GMSTA vs the equivalent atmospheric CO2 concentrations & by the end of 2017 I expect us to reach a CO2 eq. level of about 500 ppm which corresponds to a final (circa 2100) GMSTA of about 4C.

- However, as ECS responds logarithmically about two thirds of the final GMSTA will occur within 10-years.  This indicates that GMSTA may likely reach 2.7C by about 2028 (if ECS =4.5), and assuming that it takes about 15 years for Hansen's ice-climate mechanism to kick in give an approximate date of 2043 for the Last September above 1 million sq km of Arctic Sea Ice extent.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #248 on: April 16, 2017, 01:14:56 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Climate Catastrophe Is Here: 2016 Hottest Year on Record", and it (& the associated video) indicates that Michael Mann believes that we will first see a minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent of less than 1 million sq km sometime in the next one to two decades:

http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=18751

Extract: "… we are on a trajectory where we will probably see an ice--free Arctic Ocean within a decade or two."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #249 on: April 16, 2017, 01:27:17 AM »
For those who do not believe that the WAIS can collapse abruptly in conditions comparable to today's climatic conditions I note that during the Eemian Peak the global mean surface temperatures were similar to today and:

The first figure is from Muhs et al 2012, & shows that for California sea-level rapidly increased to just over 6m above today's sea level at the Eemian Peak (MIS 5.5, circa 120 kya) and then was flat for a long prior.

The second attached figure is from O'Leary et al (2013) and shows an abrupt contributions to SLR (circa 119kya)

During this +/- 120 kya period the WAIS was the only existing marine ice sheet that could have possibly collapsed (as demonstrated by Pollard & DeConto).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson