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Author Topic: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)  (Read 39977 times)

Hyperion

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #300 on: May 28, 2017, 07:26:21 PM »
Guess its how you define mating benefits. Theres lots of studies showing women being more attracted to agresive behaviours and strongly masculine high testosterone features when fertile but the opposite the rest of the month.
And personally I think its probably the women more to blame for our predicament than the men. They are instinctively primed to be attracted to wealth that supports offspring. And generally too focused on nurturing only what is under their roof. And men tend to do only what they approve of. The divide and control game of foisting the nuclear family model and unnatural lifetime monogomy on us for the industrial devolution has had dire consequences.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity
« Reply #301 on: May 29, 2017, 01:08:32 AM »
While all kinds of decision makers are claiming progress in controlling GHG emissions the linked data indicates that these anthropogenic emissions are actually accelerating instead of decelerating, and that according to NOAA the CO₂ -equiv at the end of 2015 was 485 ppm. Most disturbing is the rapid growth in atmospheric methane concentrations, and I note that in NOAA's conversion of methane into CO₂-equiv they use the old formula (see the IPCC 2007 curve in the image in Reply #14) for methane's GWP, thus they are dumbing down these numbers by declining to utilize the most current science presented by Drew Shindell 2009 (see the figure in Reply #14):

http://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html


         Global Radiative Forcing, CO2-equivalent mixing ratio, and the AGGI 1979-2013
                         Global Radiative Forcing (W m-2)           CO2-eq
                                                                                     (ppm)        AGGI
Year     CO2     CH4    N2O   CFC12 CFC11 15-minor  Total Total   1990 = 1   %change

2013   1.882  0.496   0.184   0.167   0.059   0.114  2.901   478      1.340        2.0
2014   1.908  0.499   0.187   0.166   0.058   0.116  2.935   481      1.356        1.6
2015   1.939  0.504   0.190   0.165   0.058   0.118  2.974   485      1.374        1.8

CH4   ΔF = β(M½ - Mo½) - [f(M,No) - f(Mo,No)]   β = 0.036


See also:
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/19052016/global-co2-emissions-still-accelerating-noaa-greenhouse-gas-index

Extract: "The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is not just rising, it's accelerating, and another potent greenhouse gas, methane showed a big spike last year, according to the latest annual greenhouse gas index released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"This inventory shows the rate of releases are increasing. It's going completely in the wrong direction, with no sign that the planet as a whole has the problem under control," said Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist in the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who wasn't involved in compiling the inventory.

The index, now in its 10th year, measures how much of the sun's warmth is trapped in the atmosphere by gases like CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. The data is compiled from a global network of measuring stations, including the famed observatory atop Mauna Loa, known for having the longest continuous record of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Mauna Loa's CO2 levels for the northern hemisphere are currently about 4 ppm higher than this time last year. Scientists there predict it may not dip below 400 ppm again.
NOAA's index shows that CO2 concentration has risen by an average of 1.76 parts per million since it was established in 1979, and that increase is accelerating. In the 1980s and 1990s, it rose about 1.5 ppm per year. Over the last five years, the rate of increase has been about 2.5 ppm, said Ed Dlugokencky, a senior scientist with NOAA's Earth Systems Research Laboratory who helped compile the inventory."


Edit: I note that if one assumes that the GWP100 for methane is 35 instead of 25 (per the plot in Reply #14), then NOAA's calculated value for the CO2-eq for 2015 would be 518ppm instead of 485ppm; which is a big difference, and one that NOAA should publically acknowledge.


The linked NOAA website entitled: "THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (AGGI)" was updated in Spring of 2017 with GHG data through the end of 2016 (see the attached images).  I note that if one assumes that the GWP100 for methane is 35 instead of 25 (per AR5), then NOAA's calculated value for the CO2-eq for 2016 would be 521ppm instead of 489ppm; which is a big difference, and one that NOAA should publically acknowledge.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

 Global Radiative Forcing, CO2-equivalent mixing ratio, and the AGGI
                         Global Radiative Forcing (W m-2)           CO2-eq
                                                                                     (ppm)        AGGI
Year     CO2     CH4    N2O   CFC12 CFC11 15-minor  Total Total   1990 = 1   %change

2013   1.882  0.496   0.184   0.167   0.059   0.114  2.901   478      1.340        2.0
2014   1.908  0.499   0.187   0.166   0.058   0.116  2.935   481      1.356        1.6
2015   1.939  0.504   0.190   0.165   0.058   0.118  2.974   485      1.374        1.8
2016   1.985  0.507   0.193   0.164   0.057   0.121  3.027   489      1.399        2.5

CH4   ΔF = β(M½ - Mo½) - [f(M,No) - f(Mo,No)]   β = 0.036
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 01:39:24 AM by AbruptSLR »
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nicibiene

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #302 on: May 29, 2017, 07:56:59 AM »
Found a paper from Dec 2016, Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL071930/full

Abstract:

New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well-mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Methane's RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750–2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m−2 to 0.61 W m−2) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100 year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value. We present new simplified expressions to calculate RF. Unlike previous expressions used by IPCC, the new ones include the overlap between CO2 and N2O; for N2O forcing, the CO2 overlap can be as important as the CH4 overlap. The 1750–2011 CO2 RF is within 1% of IPCC's value but is about 10% higher when CO2 amounts reach 2000 ppm, a value projected to be possible under the extended RCP8.5 scenario.


“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” –“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #303 on: May 29, 2017, 06:32:00 PM »
nicibiene,

Thank you very much for the link, and for convenience I provide the following slightly more complete reference & smaller image of the associated Figure 3:

M. Etminan, G. Myhre, E. J. Highwood & K. P. Shine (27 December 2016), "Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071930

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL071930/full

Abstract: "New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well-mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Methane's RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750–2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m−2 to 0.61 W m−2) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100 year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value. We present new simplified expressions to calculate RF. Unlike previous expressions used by IPCC, the new ones include the overlap between CO2 and N2O; for N2O forcing, the CO2 overlap can be as important as the CH4 overlap. The 1750–2011 CO2 RF is within 1% of IPCC's value but is about 10% higher when CO2 amounts reach 2000 ppm, a value projected to be possible under the extended RCP8.5 scenario."

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #304 on: June 01, 2017, 03:25:01 AM »
The linked article entitled: "Climate science bedeviled by 'tipping points'", discusses the very real risks of climate change tipping points:

https://phys.org/news/2017-01-climate-science-bedeviled.html

Extract: "Of the many things that keep climate scientists awake at night, tipping points may be the scariest.

To start with, these thresholds for deep, sometimes catastrophic change in the complex web of Earth's natural forces, caused by man-made global warming, are largely invisible.

You can't see them on the horizon, and could easily cross one without noticing.

Also, there is no turning back—at least not on a human timescale."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #305 on: June 03, 2017, 07:05:12 PM »
Thanks Abrupt, it will take some time to make a video with the suggested science. Will post it here when ready, cheers.

Hansen"s March 2016 YouTube video explains ice-climate feedback:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JP-cRqCQRc8
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #306 on: June 04, 2017, 03:34:29 PM »
The linked reference presents new findings that the retreat of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet at the end of the last ice age resulted in the explosive release of methane from Arctic seafloor hydrates as overpressure from the ice sheet disappeared.  The researchers find that serves as a good past analogy of what may likely happen in the near-term future if the WAIS were to collapse, and/or if marine terminating glaciers in Greenland were to retreat rapidly.  As methane has a GWP100 of about 35 such explosive releases of methane could have a significant impact on global warming this century.  Such short-term methane forcings would be superimposed on top of Hansen's ice-climate feedback mechanism; and it is stupid that such likely temporary positive feedback mechanisms are not included in either AR5 or CMIP5 upper bound scenarios (see the attached image):


K. Andreassen, A. Hubbard, M. Winsborrow, H. Patton, S. Vadakkepuliyambatta, A. Plaza-Faverola, E. Gudlaugsson, P. Serov, A. Deryabin, R. Mattingsdal, J. Mienert & S. Bünz (02 Jun 2017), "Massive blow-out craters formed by hydrate-controlled methane expulsion from the Arctic seafloor",Science, Vol. 356, Issue 6341, pp. 948-953, DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4500

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6341/948

Abstract: "Widespread methane release from thawing Arctic gas hydrates is a major concern, yet the processes, sources, and fluxes involved remain unconstrained. We present geophysical data documenting a cluster of kilometer-wide craters and mounds from the Barents Sea floor associated with large-scale methane expulsion. Combined with ice sheet/gas hydrate modeling, our results indicate that during glaciation, natural gas migrated from underlying hydrocarbon reservoirs and was sequestered extensively as subglacial gas hydrates. Upon ice sheet retreat, methane from this hydrate reservoir concentrated in massive mounds before being abruptly released to form craters. We propose that these processes were likely widespread across past glaciated petroleum provinces and that they also provide an analog for the potential future destabilization of subglacial gas hydrate reservoirs beneath contemporary ice sheets."

"Methane takes the quick way out
Accounting for all the sources and sinks of methane is important for determining its concentration in the atmosphere. Andreassen et al. found evidence of large craters embedded within methane-leaking subglacial sediments in the Barents Sea, Norway. They propose that the thinning of the ice sheet at the end of recent glacial cycles decreased the pressure on pockets of hydrates buried in the seafloor, resulting in explosive blow-outs. This created the giant craters and released large quantities of methane into the water above."

See also:

http://gizmodo.com/hundreds-of-giant-seafloor-craters-produced-by-explosiv-1795721166

Extract: "The explosive release of methane gas from subglacial sediments produced massive craters on the seafloor. During a recent expedition to the area, Andreassen’s team documented well over a hundred of these craters, which measured between 300 and 1,000 meters (980 to 3,280 feet) wide. Hundreds of smaller craters measuring less than 300 meters wide were also observed, and the researchers identified more than 600 methane flares in-and-around the craters that are still spewing the gas, though at rates far lower than what transpired during the explosive phase. Some of these craters were identified in the 1990s, but new scanning techniques allowed the researchers to survey the seafloor comprehensively.

Importantly, Andreassen said similar blowouts could happen in the near future on account of climate change. Areas in front of retreating ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica could host underlying hydrocarbon reservoirs. These blowouts don’t happen very often, but their environmental impacts could be greater than the impacts of slow and gradual methane seepage, explained Andreassen."

&
https://phys.org/news/2017-06-massive-craters-methane-blow-outs-arctic.html

Extract: ""Our study provides the scientific community with a good past analogue for what may happen to future methane releases in front of contemporary, retreating ice sheets" concludes Andreassen."
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 03:43:22 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #307 on: June 04, 2017, 04:31:39 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Remember the Carbon Footprint of War"'; which points out that the carbon footprint of wars can be significant and has been left out of AR5 & CMIP5 forcing scenarios:

http://www.psr.org/chapters/oregon/assets/pdfs/remember-the-carbon-footprint.pdf
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #308 on: June 18, 2017, 05:02:44 PM »
The Wikipedia article (see the first link) is entitled: "8.2 kiloyear event", and it discusses a likely near instantaneous freshwater hosing event about 8.2 kya (6,200 B.C.E.) that is speculated to have caused an ice-climate interaction (ala Hansen) that caused a several century long cooling event in the North Hemisphere and abrupt sea level rise (SLR). The second linked pdf discusses the fingerprint effect on SLR for the abrupt drainage of Lake Agassiz-Ojibway (see the first image).  I cite this event as an example of an upper bound of which might happen if the grounded marine glacier in the Byrd Subglacier Basin (BSB) were to sustain an abrupt collapse due to propagating cliff failures; which per the second attached image, I believe could happen circa 2060.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8.2_kiloyear_event

Extract: "The 8.2 kiloyear cooling event may have been caused by a large meltwater pulse from the final collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet of northeastern North America, most likely when the glacial lakes Ojibway and Agassiz suddenly drained into the North Atlantic Ocean.

The initial meltwater pulse caused between 0.5 and 4 m (1 ft 8 in and 13 ft 1 in) of sea-level rise. Based on estimates of lake volume and decaying ice cap size, values of 0.4–1.2 m (1 ft 4 in–3 ft 11 in) circulate. Based on sea-level data from the Mississippi Delta, the very final stage of the Lake Agassiz–Ojibway (LAO) drainage occurred at 8.31 to 8.18 ka and ranges from 0.8 to 2.2 m. The sea-level data from the Rhine–Meuse Delta indicate a 2–4 m (6 ft 7 in–13 ft 1 in) of near-instantaneous rise at 8.54–8.2 ka, in addition to 'normal' post-glacial sea-level rise. Meltwater pulse sea-level rise was experienced fully at great distance from the release area. Gravity and rebound effects associated with the shifting of water masses meant that the sea-level fingerprint was smaller in areas closer to the Hudson Bay. The Mississippi delta records ≈20%, northwest Europe records ≈70% and Asia records ≈105% of the globally averaged amount. The cooling of the 8.2 kiloyear event was a temporary feature; however, the sea-level rise of the meltwater pulse was permanent."

&

Roblyn A. Kendall, Jerry X. Mitrovica, Glenn A. Milne, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist & Yongxiang Li (2008), "The sea-level fingerprint of the 8.2 ka climate event", Geology.

http://www.tulane.edu/~tor/documents/Geology2008.pdf

Abstract: "The 8.2 ka cooling event was an abrupt, widespread climate instability. There is general consensus that the episode was likely initiated by a catastrophic outflow of proglacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway through the Hudson Strait, with subsequent disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, the total discharge and flux during the 8.2 ka event remain uncertain. We compute the sea-level signature, or “fingerprint,” associated with the drainage of Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway, as well as the expected sea-level signal over the same time period due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to the Late Pleistocene deglaciation. Our analysis demonstrates that sites relatively close to the lakes, including the West and Gulf Coasts of the United States, have small signals due to the lake release and potentially large GIA signals, and thus they may not be optimal field sites for constraining the outflow volume. Other sites, such as the east coast of South America and western Africa, have significantly larger signals associated with the lake release and are thus better choices in this regard."

Edit: In case it is not clear to all readers, I provide the third attached image that compares SLR fingerprint effects for ice mass loss from the GIS (panel a) & the WAIS (panel b).  Thus an abrupt (say in one or two days) collapse of much of the ice in the BSB before 2060, not only would sea level rise in the NH but so would GMSTA and Arctic Amplification.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2017, 05:52:25 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #309 on: June 25, 2017, 02:55:41 PM »
In the Flint Michigan case state official have been charged with involuntary manslaughter due to their "depraved-indifference" to the risks that their actions were incurring to human life.  At some point (if we are not already past this point) the actions of government officials regarding climate change (think Team Trump) will meet the legal definition of "depraved-indifference" and then we can put these heartless officials into prison for very long terms:

"Michigan officials charged in Flint Legionnaires' outbreak"

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/14/health/flint-water-crisis-legionnaires-manslaughter-charges/

Extract: "Several Michigan state officials, including some who reported to Gov. Rick Snyder, have been charged with involuntary manslaughter in connection with a Legionnaires' outbreak that killed 12 people during the Flint water crisis, the Michigan attorney general's office said Wednesday.

"That arrogance that people would want to sweep this away and that there are nameless, faceless bureaucrats who caused this and no one responsible is outrageous," he said adding that this is proof the system is working."

See also the linked Wikipedia article entitled: "Depraved-heart murder"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depraved-heart_murder

Extract: "In United States law, depraved-heart murder, also known as depraved-indifference murder, is an action where a defendant acts with a "depraved indifference" to human life and where such act results in a death. In a depraved-heart murder, defendants commit an act even though they know their act runs an unusually high risk of causing death or serious bodily harm to a person. If the risk of death or bodily harm is great enough, ignoring it demonstrates a "depraved indifference" to human life and the resulting death is considered to have been committed with malice aforethought."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #310 on: July 06, 2017, 06:03:27 PM »
Andre has previously posted the following reference in both the Consequences & the Science folders, but I think that it also belongs here, as this research implies that while policy makers are currently assuming that ECS is about 3C; in actuality it is likely closer to 4 to 4.5C; and if Hansen's ice-climate feedback is correct then it may be closer to 6C before the end of this century (assuming we stay on a BAU pathway for 10 to 20 more years), due to the accumulation of heat in the Pacific, and Southern, Oceans since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

Cristian Proistosescu and Peter J. Huybers (05 Jul 2017), "Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of climate sensitivity", Science Advances, Vol. 3, no. 7, e1602821, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1602821

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1602821

Extract: "The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report widened the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) range from 2° to 4.5°C to an updated range of 1.5° to 4.5°C in order to account for the lack of consensus between estimates based on models and historical observations. The historical ECS estimates range from 1.5° to 3°C and are derived assuming a linear radiative response to warming. A Bayesian methodology applied to 24 models, however, documents curvature in the radiative response to warming from an evolving contribution of interannual to centennial modes of radiative response. Centennial modes display stronger amplifying feedbacks and ultimately contribute 28 to 68% (90% credible interval) of equilibrium warming, yet they comprise only 1 to 7% of current warming. Accounting for these unresolved centennial contributions brings historical records into agreement with model-derived ECS estimates."

See also the linked article entitled: "Why the climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than weather records suggest"

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-climate-sensitive-carbon-dioxide-weather.html

Extract: "According to their statistical analysis, historical weather observations reveal only a portion of the planet's full response to rising CO₂ levels. The true climate sensitivity will only become manifest on a time scale of centuries, due to effects that researchers call "slow climate feedbacks".

To understand this, it is important to know precisely what we mean when we talk about climate sensitivity. So-called "equilibrium climate sensitivity", or slow climate feedbacks, refers to the ultimate consequence of climate response – in other words, the final effects and environmental consequences that a given greenhouse gas concentration will deliver.

These can include long-term climate feedback processes such as ice sheet disintegration with consequent changes in Earth's surface reflection (albedo), changes to vegetation patterns, and the release of greenhouse gases such as methane from soils, tundra or ocean sediments. These processes can take place on time scales of centuries or more. As such they can only be predicted using climate models based on prehistoric data and paleoclimate evidence.

On the other hand, when greenhouse gas forcing rises at a rate as high as 2–3 parts per million (ppm) of CO₂ per year, as is the case during the past decade or so, the rate of slow feedback processes may be accelerated.

Measurements of atmosphere and marine changes made since the Industrial Revolution (when humans first began the mass release of greenhouse gases) capture mainly the direct warming effects of CO₂, as well as short-term feedbacks such as changes to water vapour and clouds.
A study led by climatologist James Hansen concluded that climate sensitivity is about 3℃ for a doubling of CO₂ when considering only short-term feedbacks. However, it's potentially as high as 6℃ when considering a final equilibrium involving much of the West and East Antarctic ice melting, if and when global greenhouse levels transcend the 500-700ppm CO₂ range."

Edit: Panel A of the attached image has the slow feedback mode.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2017, 06:41:53 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #311 on: July 11, 2017, 04:54:13 PM »
The linked reference presents research confirming that we indeed have entered an era of the ongoing anthropogenically driven Sixth Mass Extinction; and hopefully, I do not need to comment on the human mental illness associated with this calamity:

Gerardo Ceballos, Paul R. Ehrlich, and Rodolfo Dirzo (2017), "Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines", PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1704949114

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/07/05/1704949114

Significance: "The strong focus on species extinctions, a critical aspect of the contemporary pulse of biological extinction, leads to a common misimpression that Earth’s biota is not immediately threatened, just slowly entering an episode of major biodiversity loss. This view overlooks the current trends of population declines and extinctions. Using a sample of 27,600 terrestrial vertebrate species, and a more detailed analysis of 177 mammal species, we show the extremely high degree of population decay in vertebrates, even in common “species of low concern.” Dwindling population sizes and range shrinkages amount to a massive anthropogenic erosion of biodiversity and of the ecosystem services essential to civilization. This “biological annihilation” underlines the seriousness for humanity of Earth’s ongoing sixth mass extinction event."

Abstract: "The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth’s sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high—even in “species of low concern.” In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40% of the species have experienced severe population declines (>80% range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a “biological annihilation” to highlight the current magnitude of Earth’s ongoing sixth major extinction event."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #312 on: July 14, 2017, 05:52:37 PM »
The linked reference cites findings from an improved version of CESM that increases ESM from 4.1C to 5.6C.  If this is actually experienced this coming century, this is bad news for both people & the current biota:

William R. Frey & Jennifer E. Kay (2017), "The influence of extratropical cloud phase and amount feedbacks on climate sensitivity", Climate Dynamics; pp 1–20, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3796-5

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-017-3796-5?utm_content=bufferfdbc0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "Global coupled climate models have large long-standing cloud and radiation biases, calling into question their ability to simulate climate and climate change. This study assesses the impact of reducing shortwave radiation biases on climate sensitivity within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The model is modified by increasing supercooled cloud liquid to better match absorbed shortwave radiation observations over the Southern Ocean while tuning to reduce a compensating tropical shortwave bias. With a thermodynamic mixed-layer ocean, equilibrium warming in response to doubled CO2 increases from 4.1 K in the control to 5.6 K in the modified model. This 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity is caused by changes in two extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. First, reduced conversion of cloud ice to liquid at high southern latitudes decreases the magnitude of a negative cloud phase feedback. Second, warming is amplified in the mid-latitudes by a larger positive shortwave cloud feedback. The positive cloud feedback, usually associated with the subtropics, arises when sea surface warming increases the moisture gradient between the boundary layer and free troposphere. The increased moisture gradient enhances the effectiveness of mixing to dry the boundary layer, which decreases cloud amount and optical depth. When a full-depth ocean with dynamics and thermodynamics is included, ocean heat uptake preferentially cools the mid-latitude Southern Ocean, partially inhibiting the positive cloud feedback and slowing warming. Overall, the results highlight strong connections between Southern Ocean mixed-phase cloud partitioning, cloud feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake in a climate forced by greenhouse gas changes."
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #313 on: August 01, 2017, 05:40:15 PM »
When most people think of the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis they think of the Arctic marine hydrate Kraken (possibly associated with a projected pulse of relatively warm North Atlantic water into the Arctic Basin, circa 2035 to 2040, see the first three images).  Therefore, I propose here to call the marine hydrate Clathrate Gun mechanism associated with the likely collapse of the WAIS (see Reply #159), the Baba Yaga (Russian for boogeyman) mechanism, in honor of the movie "John Wick" aka Baba Yaga (a professional killer played by Keanu Reeves, see the 4th image).  Pleasant dreams.

See also:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bogeyman
&
http://monsterlore.weebly.com/baba-yaga-the-russian-boogeyman.html

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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« Reply #314 on: August 01, 2017, 06:07:45 PM »
As a follow-up to my last post (about as possible coming series of both Kraken & Baba Yaga events this century), I provide the following linked 2008 reference.

Kieran D. O'Hara (25 January 2008), "A model for late Quaternary methane ice core signals: Wetlands versus a shallow marine source", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2007GL032317

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL032317/abstract;jsessionid=2A39482FA5ADB8E882067169E1F82526.f04t01

Abstract: "A three-reservoir model with first order kinetics for methane records in the Vostok (Antarctica) and GISP2 (Greenland) ice cores reproduces the sawtooth pattern and the maximum and minimum concentrations. The model also returns an atmospheric methane relaxation time of ∼10 years for both cores, which is the same as current estimates. The characteristics of the source reservoirs are long relaxation times (33.3 and 100 ky) and high initial methane concentrations (2500 and 7000 ppm) for GISP2 and Vostok, respectively. These characteristics are consistent with gas hydrate sources in shallow marine sediments, but not with wetland sources which have insufficient storage capacity and low source strength."

Also, see the associated 2008 article entitled: "Possible Origin of Methane in Ice Core Records"; which concludes that the methane in both Antarctic and Greenland ice cores for the Late Quaternary period (0.5-1.0 million years ago) is likely associated with methane emitted from marine hydrates

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080217093816.htm


Also, with regards to the linked July 31 2017 article entitled: "Methane-eating microbes may reduce release of gases as Antarctic ice sheets melt", I note that its 'happy talk' conclusions are predicted on the assumption that the WAIS melts relatively slowly; while the Storegga submarine landslide (see the first attached image) demonstrates that if an abrupt collapse of the WAIS were to trigger Clathrate Gun-type submarine landslides, then the associate methane release would happen much too quickly for methane-eating microbes to have any meaningful impact on the amount of methane released (as may have been the case for the Late Quaternary Vostok ice core, which the second image indicates includes the Holsteinian, MIS 11c, period; which had a particularly high effective climate sensitivity, as discussed in Replies #267 & 268):

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-methane-eating-microbes-gases-antarctic-ice.html

Extract: "These tiny microorganisms may have a big impact on a warming world by preventing methane from seeping into the atmosphere when ice sheets melt, said Brent Christner, a University of Florida microbiologist and co-author on the study."
« Last Edit: August 01, 2017, 06:38:10 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #315 on: August 02, 2017, 03:51:31 PM »
As in any Baba Yaga (Boogieman) story (scenario) the Devil is in the detail, and so it is with the potential abrupt release of methane from marine hydrates beneath the WAIS (of which roughly ½ of its bed area has sediment suitable for containing hydrates).  In this regards, I provide the first two attached images that show:

(1) The elevation of the ice in the WAIS above sea level that if released abruptly by cliff failures could destabilize marine hydrate by abrupt depressurization, that could lead to a series of underwater landslides on the negative slope of the seafloor as the ground line progressively retreats;

(2) Sea passages way that could be progressively opened to allow relatively warm circumpolar deep water to circulate in the newly exposed West Antarctic seafloor, which could destabilized marine hydrates with heat.

(3) The potentially hundreds of meter of seafloor rebound that would both raise up and destabilize the geotechnical marine deposits, thus causing local destabilization areas.

The third image shows the depth to the MOHO beneath the West Antarctic indicating that large zones in this area have little or no lithosphere, which cause both high geothermal heat flux into the marine hydrates and also promotes both seismic and volcanic activity (with abrupt loss of ice) that could further destabilize the hydrates.

Lastly for this post, I note that the bottom zone of the marine ice sheet itself likely has insitu methane hydrates that could be abruptly transported to the atmosphere if/when the calved icebergs roll.
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #316 on: August 03, 2017, 05:01:03 PM »
To continue my Baba Yaga story, I note that once the WAIS starts to collapse, geoengineering will not be able to stop it, and if I am correct the WAIS may start to collapse circa 2040.  Thus as BECCS is not economically/technically practicable; I suspect that governments will find the use of geoengineering irresistible circa 2040 to 2060.  Therefore, I provide a link to the referenced research of the first climate model examination of 'cocktail geoengineering' using a combination of: "… stratospheric sulfate aerosol increase (SAI) that deflects sunlight to space and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) that enables more longwave radiation to escape to space."  The study finds that combining both SAI & CCT can restore both GMSTA and total global precipitation back to pre-industrial levels, it finds that the regional patterns would be substantially different.  Thus, I would not be surprised that the DOE will authorize an ACME Phase II in 2018 that includes modeling capabilities to study such 'cocktail geoengineering' proposal in greater detail.  That said, I am concerned that any such studies will not consider methane hydrate emission from the WAIS, nor Hansen's ice-climate feedback from a potential collapse of the WAIS this century; which would like mean that any implementation of such 'cocktail geoengineering' plans would be misguided, and potential worse than if they had not been implemented:

Long Cao, Lei Duan, Govindasamy Bala & Ken Caldeira (2017), "Simultaneous stabilization of global temperature and precipitation through cocktail geoengineering", Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074281

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074281/abstract;jsessionid=CD4EEF992F073831F2A191EFA5491888.f03t02

Abstract: "Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a backup plan to offset some aspects of anthropogenic climate change if timely CO2 emission reductions fail to materialize. Modeling studies have shown that there are trade-offs between changes in temperature and hydrological cycle in response to solar geoengineering. Here we investigate the possibility of stabilizing both global mean temperature and precipitation simultaneously by combining two geoengineering approaches: stratospheric sulfate aerosol increase (SAI) that deflects sunlight to space and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) that enables more longwave radiation to escape to space. Using the slab ocean configuration of National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model, we simulate SAI by uniformly adding sulfate aerosol in the upper stratosphere and CCT by uniformly increasing cirrus cloud ice particle falling speed. Under an idealized warming scenario of abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2, we show that by combining appropriate amounts of SAI and CCT geoengineering, global mean (or land mean) temperature and precipitation can be restored simultaneously to preindustrial levels. However, compared to SAI, cocktail geoengineering by mixing SAI and CCT does not markedly improve the overall similarity between geoengineered climate and preindustrial climate on regional scales. Some optimal spatially nonuniform mixture of SAI with CCT might have the potential to better mitigate climate change at both the global and regional scales."

Plain Language Summary: "Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide cause increase in both global temperatures and precipitation. Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a means to counteract this climate change by deliberately deflecting more sunlight from the Earth's climate system. Numerous climate modeling studies have shown that proposed solar geoengineering schemes, such as injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, can cool climate, but the amount of precipitation change per degree of temperature change is greater than that for CO2, meaning that such proposals cannot simultaneously globally restore both average temperatures and average precipitation. It has also been suggested that the Earth could be cooled by thinning cirrus clouds, but the amount of precipitation change per degree of temperature change for this method is less than that for CO2. Our climate modeling study shows, for the first time, that a cocktail of these two approaches would decrease precipitation and temperature in the same ratios as they are increased by CO2, which would allow simultaneous recovery of preindustrial temperature and precipitation in a high CO2 world at global scale. We show that although the average temperatures and precipitation can be recovered at global scale, substantial differences between the geoengineered and natural climates persist at regional scale."

See also: "Could 'cocktail geoengineering' save the climate?"

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-cocktail-geoengineering-climate.html

Extract: "The team—which includes Carnegie's Ken Caldeira, Long Cao and Lei Duan of Zhejiang University, and Govindasamy Bala of the Indian Institute of Science—used models to simulate what would happen if sunlight were scattered by particles at the same time as the cirrus clouds were thinned. They wanted to understand how effective this combined set of tools would be at reversing climate change, both globally and regionally.

The good news is that their simulations showed that if both methods are deployed in concert, it would decrease warming to pre-industrial levels, as desired, and on a global level rainfall would also stay at pre-industrial levels. But the bad news is that while global average climate was largely restored, substantial differences remained locally, with some areas getting much wetter and other areas getting much drier."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #317 on: August 06, 2017, 12:54:54 AM »
The linked video suggests that Machiavellian thinking can result from having been traumatized.  If so then to progressively work our collective way out of societal mental illness, we need help people deal better with trauma:

Title: “Niccolò Machiavelli (BBC Documentary)”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0lfo_cWxQc

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #318 on: August 07, 2017, 08:51:35 PM »
The linked reference determines the paleoclimate sensitivity during the Middle Eocene at a latitude of 64 degrees 48 minutes in Canada (see the first image), and finds a regional climate sensitivity of about 13C.  The second image illustrates that these findings indicate exceptionally high values of Arctic Amplification during this period as the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were found to be only about 490 ppm.  While the mean global surface temperature was warmer during the Middle Eocene than today, we are warming at a much faster rate and C02-equiv is already well about 490 ppm.  This does not bode well for our collective future:

Alexander P. Wolfe, Alberto V. Reyes, Dana L. Royer, David R. Greenwood, Gabriela Doria, Mary H. Gagen, Peter A. Siver and John A. Westgate (May 2017), "Middle Eocene CO2 and climate reconstructed from the sediment fill of a subarctic kimberlite maar", GEOLOGY, July 2017; v. 45; no. 7; p. 619–622, doi:10.1130/G39002.1


https://gsw.silverchair-cdn.com/gsw/Content_public/Journal/geology/45/7/10.1130_G39002.1/1/619.pdf?Expires=1502222555&Signature=bqBU8Y3KgwV619Rh98~HEPqPp~aWdJ3w9x893T75q0T5Bn70XB~7Xvjub8K7QrFGN5OhK1RYvai3Aw5yfCYLSjKnKMt7KIMCoZnbo8drd9wtDSqrfEqLJJYFd6X7WWR~nBW9BCmhI0t2QOV2QqS7xkvQPDLc~saDe8e9-V8rrwXRI~WR-KsTvbGe2wz~XUmEU3c-lt~TD1TLajAj4Cb5EVeLNGjtF~0pt2fdKtvHMbl8C9~r5TimyGysbu5vExwPrbZvpLvfjxzipB-l5fiD7QH9qCslsthuwWOPIGGCUquL0tI6lMHQZXugcX5ix1ge4Uj7Ed6RQVvB07liZCi7mA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIUCZBIA4LVPAVW3Q
&
http://www.geosociety.org/datarepository/2017/2017202.pdf

Abstract: "Eocene paleoclimate reconstructions are rarely accompanied by parallel estimates of CO2 from the same locality, complicating assessment of the equilibrium climate response to elevated CO2. We reconstruct temperature, precipitation, and CO2 from latest middle Eocene (ca. 38 Ma) terrestrial sediments in the post eruptive sediment fill of the Giraffe kimberlite in subarctic Canada. Mutual climatic range and oxygen isotope analyses of botanical fossils reveal a humid temperate forest ecosystem with mean annual temperatures (MATs) more than 17 °C warmer than present and mean annual precipitation ~4× present. Metasequoia stomatal indices and gas-exchange modeling produce median CO2 concentrations of ~630 and ~430 ppm, respectively, with a combined median estimate of ~490 ppm. Reconstructed MATs are more than 6 °C warmer than those produced by Eocene climate models forced at 560 ppm CO2. Estimates of regional climate sensitivity, expressed as ΔMAT per CO2 doubling above preindustrial levels, converge on a value of ~13 °C, underscoring the capacity for exceptional polar amplification of warming and hydrological intensification under modest CO2 concentrations once both fast and slow feedbacks become expressed."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #319 on: August 09, 2017, 07:13:08 PM »
The first image of Figure 5 from the linked reference (Lunt et al 2017) indicates that the PMIP4 may well be erring on the side of least drama w.r.t. to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in the Middle Eocene (circa 35 to 39 mya) as compared to the findings of Wolfe et al 2017 (see Reply #318).

Daniel J. Lunt et. al. (2017), "The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4: experimental design for model simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)", Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017

https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/889/2017/gmd-10-889-2017.pdf

Abstract. Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( >800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (~50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4xCO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP – the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

Edit: See also Reply #256 for a discussion of atmospheric CO2 levels during the Early Eocene.

Edit 2: I provide the second image from Reply #256 for ease of reference.

Edit 3: Also for ease of reference, if one assumes that the GWP100 for methane is 35, then the CO2-equiv at the end of 2016 was approximately 521 ppm.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2017, 09:45:46 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #320 on: August 12, 2017, 06:40:10 PM »
While Proistosescu & Huybers (2017) has been cited previously (see Reply #310), I nevertheless provide the linked associated Harvard Gazette article: entitled: "Reconciling predictions of climate change".  Further, I provide the attached image of a panel of the first supplemental figure from Proistosescu & Huybers (2017) that at for at least the climate model HadGEM2-ES the posterior pdf for the near future ECS has a median value of 6C with right-tailed values in the range of 8C.  While it is very difficult to say at the moment what model projections are correct, I provide the following general comments:

1. PMIP4 (see Reply #319) is currently providing input into CMIP6 that err on the side of least drama.

2. The vast majority of climate models have trouble matching the observed relatively high Arctic Amplification values from paleo periods that are a little bit warmer than today (e.g. see Reply #318).

3.  The world is currently warming at a rate that is several time faster than during the PETM.

4.  The 100-year CO₂-eq value at the end of 2016 was about 521ppm which is already at Eocene levels.

Therefore, the 'fatness' of the right-tail of the ECS pdf may well be much fatter than most scientists (particularly those that contributed to AR5) assume:

http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/07/conflicting-estimates-of-rise-in-global-temperature-resolved/

Extract: "“The historical pattern of warming is that most of the warming has occurred over land, in particular over the northern hemisphere,” said Cristian Proistosescu, Ph.D ’17, the first author of the paper. “This pattern of warming is known as the fast mode — you put CO2 in the atmosphere and very quickly after that, the land in the northern hemisphere is going to warm.”

But there is also a slow mode of warming, which can take centuries to realize. That warming, which is most associated with the Southern Ocean and the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, comes with positive feedback loops that amplify the process. For example, as the oceans warm, cloud cover decreases, and a white reflecting surface is replaced with a dark absorbent surface.

The researchers developed a mathematical model to parse the two modes within different climate models.

“The models simulate a warming pattern like today’s, but indicate that strong feedbacks kick in when the Southern Ocean and Eastern Equatorial Pacific eventually warm, leading to higher overall temperatures than would simply be extrapolated from the warming seen to date,” said Peter Huybers, professor of Earth and planetary sciences in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science, and of environmental science and engineering at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS), the co-author of the paper.

Huybers and Proistosescu found that while the slow mode of warming contributes a great deal to the ultimate amount of global warming, it is barely present in present-day warming patterns. “Historical observations give us a lot of insight into how climate changes and are an important test of our climate models,” said Huybers, “but there is no perfect analogue for the changes that are coming.”"


See also:
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1602821
&
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~cproist/pubs/ProistosescuHuybers2017SciAdv_ReconcilingSensitivity_SM.pdf
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #321 on: August 12, 2017, 07:15:06 PM »
The linked reference indicates that when the AMO is in a positive phase (as it recently has been per the attached associated image) the tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler than normal.  However, as the AMO is projected to be just now entering a negative phase, this research would indicate that for the next two, or more, decades we can expect the tropical Pacific Ocean to be warmer than normal (i.e. that El Nino events will be more frequent and more intense); which indicates that for this period the GMSTA may well be above its average trend line:

KEWEI LYU, JIN-YI YU, AND HOUK PAEK (2017), "The Influences of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Mean Strength of the North Pacific Subtropical High during Boreal Winter", Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0525.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0525.1
&
https://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/PDF/Lyu-Yu-Paek.JCLI.2017.pdf

Abstract: "The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) has been shown to be capable of exerting significant influences on the Pacific climate. In this study, the authors analyze reanalysis datasets and conduct forced and coupled experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to explain why the winter North Pacific subtropical high strengthens and expands northwestward during the positive phase of the AMO. The results show that the tropical Atlantic warming associated with the positive AMO phase leads to a westward displacement of the Pacific Walker circulation and a cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, thereby inducing anomalous descending motion over the central tropical Pacific. The descending motion then excites a stationary Rossby wave pattern that extends northward to produce a nearly barotropic anticyclone over the North Pacific. A diagnosis based on the quasigeostrophic vertical velocity equation reveals that the stationary wave pattern also results in enhanced subsidence over the northeastern Pacific via the anomalous advections of vorticity and temperature. The anomalous barotropic anticyclone and the enhanced subsidence are the two mechanisms that increase the sea level pressure over the North Pacific. The latter mechanism occurs to the southeast of the former one and thus is more influential in the subtropical high region. Both mechanisms can be produced in forced and coupled AGCMs but are displaced northward as a result of stationary wave patterns that differ from those observed. This explains why the model-simulated North Pacific sea level pressure responses to the AMO tend to be biased northward."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #322 on: August 12, 2017, 08:49:29 PM »
"The 100-year CO₂-eq value at the end of 2016 was about 521ppm which is already at Eocene levels."

Is this somewhere in one of the links you provided, or is there another source for it that you might kindly point me to.

Thanks ahead of time, for this and all the great work you do here.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #323 on: August 12, 2017, 11:05:11 PM »
"The 100-year CO₂-eq value at the end of 2016 was about 521ppm which is already at Eocene levels."

Is this somewhere in one of the links you provided, or is there another source for it that you might kindly point me to.

Thanks ahead of time, for this and all the great work you do here.

wili,
In Reply #301, I show how when I replace NOAA's GWP100 value of 25 for methane with the actual value of 35, I get a CO2-eq value of 521 ppm at the end of 2016.

In Reply #318, I provide a solid reference that determined a median value of atmospheric CO2 concentration during the Middle Eocene of about 490 ppm.

Best regards,
ASLR
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #324 on: August 12, 2017, 11:58:13 PM »
Thanks for the reminder, aslr
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #325 on: August 13, 2017, 12:43:29 AM »
Thanks for the reminder, aslr

wili,

My pleasure.  However, I note that even this information likely underestimates the seriousness of our current situation for reasons including:

1. The ocean has been absorbing roughly 90% of anthropogenically driven heating since about 1750; which due to the thermal inertia of the ocean, is only now resulting in slow response feedback mechanisms such as: (a) warming of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean & acceleration of the frequency of strong El Nino events and (b) warming of the Southern Ocean and the associated beginning of the activation of Hansen's ice-climate feedback mechanism.

2. If/when continued increase of atmospheric methane concentrations occur, then it is likely that one should use methane's GWP20 value of 105 instead of its GWP100 value of 35, when calculating radiative forcing.

3.  Many masking factors (such as aerosol emissions from China) will likely be eliminated within the next decade, or so, which should accelerate global warming to higher rates than we have yet seen.

4. Continued acidification of the oceans and recent disruptions to the tropical rainforests, will likely reduce the rate of CO2 absorption associated with these two carbon sinks.

5. The current rates of increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing are several times that which occurred during the PETM, so the current effective value of ECS (for the rest of this century) may well be higher than that observed during the Eocene.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #326 on: August 13, 2017, 01:27:08 AM »
Thanks again.

I tend to agree.

The other thing about the ocean CO2 sink is that as the surface warms, CO2 will less easily dissolve in the water. And old, CO2-rich waters are already making their way back to the surface, iirc.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AbruptSLR

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Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« Reply #327 on: August 13, 2017, 12:31:17 PM »
Thanks again.

I tend to agree.

The other thing about the ocean CO2 sink is that as the surface warms, CO2 will less easily dissolve in the water. And old, CO2-rich waters are already making their way back to the surface, iirc.


Also:
1. A certain portion of the permafrost is already committed to degrade and emit both CO2 & CH4;
2. The rainforests contain at least three times the amount of peat than AR5 assumes, which will serve as an active source of both CO2 & CH4 due to the committed degradation of the rainforests around the world;
3. Finally, I provide two articles that indicate that AR5 models underestimate the amount of CO2 ventilation (from upwelling) that we are already committed to:

The first reference indicates that current climate models do not adequately account for all of the mechanisms for ocean ventilation in the high-latitude oceans.

Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Graeme A.  MacGilchrist, Peter J. Brown, D. Gwyn Evans, Andrew J. S. Meijers, Jan D. Zika (7 August 2017), "High-latitude ocean ventilation and its role in Earth's climate transitions", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0324

http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/375/2102/20160324?utm_content=buffer039b9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "The processes regulating ocean ventilation at high latitudes are re-examined based on a range of observations spanning all scales of ocean circulation, from the centimetre scales of turbulence to the basin scales of gyres. It is argued that high-latitude ocean ventilation is controlled by mechanisms that differ in fundamental ways from those that set the overturning circulation. This is contrary to the assumption of broad equivalence between the two that is commonly adopted in interpreting the role of the high-latitude oceans in Earth's climate transitions. Illustrations of how recognizing this distinction may change our view of the ocean's role in the climate system are offered.

This article is part of the themed issue ‘Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world’."

The second reference indicates that deep convection mechanisms can develop in the Arctic Ocean with continued anthropogenic global warming; which would increase ocean ventilation:

Lique, C., Johnson, H.L. & Plancherel, Y. (2017), "Emergence of deep convection in the Arctic Ocean under a warming climate", Clim Dyn, DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382

https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-017-3849-9?utm_content=buffer841ba&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "The appearance of winter deep mixed layers in the Arctic Ocean under a warming climate is investigated with the HiGEM coupled global climate model. In response to a four times increase of atmospheric CO 2 levels with respect to present day conditions, the Arctic Basin becomes seasonally ice-free. Its surface becomes consequently warmer and, on average, slightly fresher. Locally, changes in surface salinity can be far larger (up to 4 psu) than the basin-scale average, and of a different sign. The Canadian Basin undergoes a strong freshening, while the Eurasian Basin undergoes strong salinification. These changes are driven by the spin up of the surface circulation, likely resulting from the increased transfer of momentum to the ocean as sea ice cover is reduced. Changes in the surface salinity field also result in a change in stratification, which is strongly enhanced in the Canadian Basin and reduced in the Eurasian Basin. Reduction, or even suppression, of the stratification in the Eurasian Basin produces an environment that is favourable for, and promotes the appearance of, deep convection near the sea ice edge, leading to a significant deepening of winter mixed layers in this region (down to 1000 m). As the Arctic Ocean is transitioning toward a summer ice-free regime, new dynamical ocean processes will appear in the region, with potentially important consequences for the Arctic Ocean itself and for climate, both locally and on larger scales."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson