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Jim Hunt

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The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« on: June 05, 2016, 06:53:35 PM »
Post El Niño the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season could prove to be very interesting.

You might well argue that this was really the end of the 2015 season, but nonetheless Hurricane Alex was officially named as the first Atlantic hurricane of 2016 back in January, and promptly decided to head straight for Greenland:

Is the Son of Storm Frank Heading for the Arctic?

The generally accepted start of the hurricane season is June 1st. We haven't experienced another hurricane yet, but  Tropical Storm Bonnie formed at the end of May, and the US National Hurricane Center did issue a Tropical Storm Warning for South Carolina

They've just issued another one, this time for the Gulf coast of Florida. Here's their current forecast:


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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2016, 07:39:58 PM »
Good thread, Jim. Thanks for opening.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2016, 08:57:41 PM »
Right now, the center of future Tropical Storm Colin (now Tropical Depression 3) is projected to go right over my head on Monday morning (Tallahassee)!  The 2.5 inches forecast (65 mm) will be welcome!  May the coastal folks be well prepared for the storm serge.

I haven't been so 'excited' since Tropical Storm Fay dropped 25.0 inches (635 mm) into my rain gauge over the course of 7 days in 2008 (outer bands extended a long way and it moved slowly).

Edit:  another source suggests we will get 5.5" (140 mm) of rain from ~Colin.  This might explain the birds at our bird feeder during the current light rain.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2016, 09:03:20 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #3 on: June 06, 2016, 12:40:37 AM »
Tropical Storm Colin is the earliest third-named storm on record for the Atlantic (back to 1851). Average date of third-named storm is Aug 13th.
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/739574883097645056

NOAA’s  National Hurricane Center link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #4 on: June 06, 2016, 11:15:39 AM »
There's now also a "Tropical Storm Warning" for Georgia, plus a mere "Watch" for South Carolina. Here's Colin's archive:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/refresh/COLIN+shtml/090402.shtml?

Here's an extract from the 09:00 UTC NHC Public Advisory Bulletin:

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, western to northern
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas
through Tuesday.

STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters.  The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the
Florida East and Georgia coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning
area, as well as in the Tropical Storm Watch area along the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Gulf coast within the warning area this afternoon, and the Atlantic
coast within the warning area by early Tuesday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible along the Atlantic coast within the watch
area on Tuesday.

TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #5 on: June 06, 2016, 03:15:27 PM »
Heavy rains extend 500 miles from the center of TS Colin this morning.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #6 on: June 06, 2016, 04:00:14 PM »
As mentioned at the top, you can debate whether Colin should be considered as the 2nd or 3rd tropical storm of the 2016 Atlantic season. Nonetheless Bob Henson accurately points out at Weather Underground that:

Tropical Storm Colin Becomes Earliest “C” Storm in Atlantic History

There have been two other “C” storms as early as June since current naming practices began in the 1950s: Hurricane Chris (which began as a named subtropical storm on June 18, 2012) and Tropical Storm Candy (June 23, 1968). Going all the way back to 1851, the previous earliest appearance of the season’s third storm was June 12, 1887, although some early-season storms were undoubtedly missed during the pre-satellite era.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2016, 09:53:19 AM »
There is now a tropical storm warning in effect for Sebastian Inlet Florida to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

As jdallen put it elsewhere:

I will be very interested to see what happens when the storm completes its passage over the pan handle and reconnects with the extraordinarily warm water off the Eastern Seaboard of the US.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2016, 10:37:10 AM »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2016, 11:23:19 AM »
Thanks BFTV.

From the first link, to NOAA's 2016 forecast:

70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, will most likely be near-normal, but forecast uncertainty in the climate signals that influence the formation of Atlantic storms make predicting this season particularly difficult.


In answer to the obvious El Niño question Gerry had this to say:

There are two main sets of climate patterns that strongly control the strength of the hurricane season. One set is called the El Nino/La Nina cycle (ENSO) and the other is called the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO). El Nino and La Nina affect the hurricane season for a year at a time while the AMO affects the season strength for decades (25-40) years at a time.

By predicting the combined impacts of these climate patterns, we can often predict what the hurricane season will bring. This is because they strongly control an entire set of key conditions such as vertical wind shear, trade winds, wind patterns coming off of Africa, ocean temperatures, and air pressure, all of which come together to make the season either more or less active.


« Last Edit: June 07, 2016, 11:28:40 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2016, 01:20:09 PM »
Right now, the center of future Tropical Storm Colin (now Tropical Depression 3) is projected to go right over my head on Monday morning (Tallahassee)!  The 2.5 inches forecast (65 mm) will be welcome!  May the coastal folks be well prepared for the storm serge.
...
Edit:  another source suggests we will get 5.5" (140 mm) of rain from ~Colin.  This might explain the birds at our bird feeder during the current light rain.
Of course, the storm's 'center' passed Tallahassee by a good 30-50 miles, and all the wind was, I think, 50-100 east of that.  My rain gauge received over 7" of rain - it overflowed while I was at work, but I measured 7.08" (180 mm).  Now I can go on vacation!
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #11 on: June 08, 2016, 08:45:21 PM »
St. Petersburg Pumping Sewage into Bay as Tropical Storm Colin Flooding Continues
Flooding from Tropical Storm Colin is quite literally making a mess of the Tampa Bay area.

St. Petersburg officials told the Associated Press that the city will be pumping partially treated sewage into the bay after rainwater infiltrated leaky sewer pipes and overloaded the system. According to the National Weather Service, much of the Tampa Bay area still had standing water as of Wednesday morning.

St. Petersburg Public Works Administrator Claude Tankersley said the sewage will be pumped by pipe about a quarter of a mile into the bay, and the Florida Department of Environmental Protection has been notified of the discharge.
...
Lowe said residents and businesses should not takes showers or baths, do laundry, wash dishes or engage in "any other use of water that enters the sanitary sewer system."
https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-colin-flooding-impacts-news
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #12 on: June 20, 2016, 05:55:10 PM »
Danielle becomes the earliest fourth-named storm in the Atlantic basin, surpassing
Tropical Storm Debbie of 2012.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/201433.shtml

only by 3 days,

but then 2012 didn't have any more til early August

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #13 on: July 04, 2016, 10:07:36 AM »
Meanwhile, July 3 saw the first named Western Pacific storm, not yet a typhoon. Second latest recorded date.

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #14 on: July 05, 2016, 04:38:12 PM »
And now that second latest storm has bombed on the warmest waters available to tropical cyclones in the world, and is Category 5 on the SSHWS, approaching super typhoon according to JTWC.

30-31C waters, 1.5C above normal. And in 12 hours we've gone from an 85kt storm to, officially, a 120kt storm which is probably a 140kt storm...

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Hurricane Earl heads for Belize
« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2016, 12:53:48 AM »
The Caribbean is generally lumped in with the Atlantic, and Hurricane Earl is currently heading towards Belize:

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just reached Earl and measured maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), indicating that Earl is now a hurricane.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2016, 12:37:54 PM »
Tropical Storm Fiona has just been christened.  There's no suggestion as yet that she'll reach hurricane force though:
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2016, 09:07:06 PM »
12z operational ECMWF forecast calls for US "hurricane luck" to end with a bang bringing a 950 hpa hurricane (Cat 3 or weak 4) to Florida by Day 9-10 (August 31/September 1). Should be the current Invest 99L which right now has been given 50% chance to develope during the next 5 days by National Hurricane Center.

Last time a major hurricane went into the US was in October 2005 when Wilma said "Hi" to Floida before roaring out to open seain the North Atlantic.

The presumed invest 90L seems to go down to 934 hpa (Cat 4) by Day 8 over open sea far away from land. The next two names on the name list is Gaston and Hermine. Gastoon should be the kind one while Hermine might be the naughty and bad one!

GFS OTOH doesn't develope 99L into anything.

//LMV

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2016, 09:21:17 PM »
Here's the latest from the Nat'l Hurricane Center. I moved to Florida almost three years ago, so I keep a close eye on tropical developments.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2016, 12:46:34 AM »
Gaston should be the kind one.

You might be getting a trifle concerned if you live in Bermuda?
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2016, 06:34:14 AM »
Here's the latest from the Nat'l Hurricane Center.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2016, 10:17:17 AM »
Gaston is now officially a tropical storm:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/GASTON.shtml

and "Invest 99L"/"Disturbance 1" is now up to 60% probability of cyclone formation within 48 hours:

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2016, 05:19:12 PM »
Eric Holthaus on fivethrtyeight.com:

Hurricane Hermine Doesn’t Exist Yet, But Experts Are Starting To Worry
Behind the scenes, meteorologists have sprung into action, downing extra cups of coffee, sending cryptic tweets and encouraging caution. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the parent organization of the National Weather Service, has dispatched an Air Force Reserve “hurricane hunter” aircraft to fly through the storm and gather additional data.
...
So, how do you responsibly talk about a hurricane that could be potentially devastating when the probabilities are still unclear, particularly when it might be the first to make landfall in Florida in a decade?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hurricane-hermine-doesnt-exist-yet-but-experts-are-starting-to-worry/
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #23 on: August 24, 2016, 07:48:12 PM »
Here's the latest from the Nat'l Hurricane Center in regards to Invest 99L. Although I agree in part with what Eric is saying, Anyone who is in the projected path should at least begin the mental preparations for action, if needed.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2016, 07:53:41 PM by budmantis »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #24 on: August 25, 2016, 11:59:02 AM »
Gaston is now officially a hurricane, although not for long according to the current forecast.

The NHC are still fairly coy about "Disturbance 1"
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #25 on: August 25, 2016, 03:58:47 PM »
Based on my observations over the years, it is unusual for a tropical wave (Disturbance 1) to remain a possible threat for this long, while not quite developing into a tropical depression. Yet for the next three to five days, this "possible threat" remains possible.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #26 on: August 25, 2016, 06:05:06 PM »
Holthaus:  The latest models for #99L show a path between the FL Keys and Miami, and possible rapid intensification in the [very warm!] Gulf of Mexico
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/768817274018861057

 Keep in mind that now-days a storm does not have to be a Category 5 to be a major event.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #27 on: August 25, 2016, 06:57:43 PM »
According to the Nat'l Hurricane Center, 99L has been encountering dry air and some wind shear. Looking at GOES infrared, it looks very disorganized. Nevertheless, if conditions improve along with the very warm water it will be traveling over, it could intensify rapidly. OTOH, it's moving at a decent speed and it will soon be influenced by high pressure currently located over the Carolinas. Also, the islands it will be passing over will interfere somewhat with it's development. Although it could become a major hurricane, I'm thinking the chances for that are pretty slim. I hope I'm right!
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #28 on: August 26, 2016, 06:40:20 AM »
It appears the prospects for Invest 99L's development has gone done a bit. Here's the latest five day forecast from the Nat'l Hurricane Center.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #29 on: August 26, 2016, 06:45:48 AM »
GOES infrared on 99L shows a very disorganized tropical wave. Currently located between the southern Bahamas and Cuba.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #30 on: August 29, 2016, 12:48:14 PM »
All of a sudden we have two tropical storms forecast, but still no Hurricane Hermine:
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mati

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #31 on: August 29, 2016, 04:26:42 PM »
north carolina may be in for some serious flooding
and so it goes

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #32 on: August 30, 2016, 08:54:49 PM »
Operational 12z ECMWF run is absolutely bizarre!! The solution has Hermine/Ian to pass through Florida, churn up at North Carolina and out to sea BUT then to "make a Sandy" and bend back westward to New York and to northwest to Canada and intensifying over Hudson Bay(!!!!!!!) We should hope this is just a complete outlier from planet Mars!

//LMV

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #33 on: August 31, 2016, 12:08:38 AM »
A hurricane watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/302101.shtml?

The NHC makes no mention of bananas from Mars yet though!
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #34 on: August 31, 2016, 04:11:36 PM »
Wind forecast for TD 9 made at 12Z (8 am EDT) Tuesday, August 30, 2016. Both the European model (left) and GFS model (right) were predicting that TD 9 would be a tropical storm just off the Northeast U.S. coast over Labor Day weekend.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3408
and so it goes

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #35 on: August 31, 2016, 10:09:27 PM »
Nine is now officially Tropical Storm Hermine:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #36 on: August 31, 2016, 10:57:14 PM »
Jim: I've been watching GOES east for the last few days, trying to spot counter clockwise rotation. Finally spotted it today.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #37 on: August 31, 2016, 11:33:22 PM »
Nine is now officially Tropical Storm Hermine:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl


does she have a wand of expelliarmus
a very interesting track for this storm....
many floods incoming
and so it goes

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #38 on: September 01, 2016, 02:32:01 AM »

does she have a wand of expelliarmus
a very interesting track for this storm....
many floods incoming

Yup.  (Although the hurricane is pronounced Her-MEEN.  ;) )

Mike Bettes:  Quick estimate puts 77.5 million people in #Hermine's 5 day cone. That's roughly 1/4 of the U.S. population.
https://twitter.com/mikebettes/status/771096515507056641
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #39 on: September 01, 2016, 02:38:26 AM »
Day 1-3 QPF, in inches, from the National Weather Service:
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #40 on: September 01, 2016, 04:07:18 AM »
Greg Postel:  #Hermine is one elongated (looking) TC ... impacts felt way in advance (and to the east of center) #flwx #gawx
https://twitter.com/gregpostel/status/771077119115948033

Stu Ostro:  Already up to ~10" of rain in Florida near Tampa from tropical moisture & now fringe bands from #Hermine   #flwx
https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/771143569105051648 

Both tweets have radar animations.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #41 on: September 01, 2016, 08:08:25 PM »
Hermine has strengthened and is now officially a hurricane.

In the wake of Superstorm Sandy, the National Hurricane Center developed a new Storm Surge Warning map.  Right now, it includes the Tampa, Florida area.

Live map here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

Edit:
From the NHC advisory:
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...4 to 7 feet
Ochlockonee River to Keaton Beach...5 to 8 feet
Keaton Beach to Chassahowitzka...4 to 7 feet
Chassahowitzka to Longboat Key...including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 feet
Longboat Key to Bonita Beach...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet
« Last Edit: September 01, 2016, 08:47:58 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #42 on: September 01, 2016, 09:56:19 PM »
and so it goes

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #43 on: September 01, 2016, 11:20:44 PM »
Tornado hunters are looking out:
http://www.severestudios.com/live-storm-chasing-map/


Looks like most of the action will be further north in the panhandle. We're located in Pasco county which is a little north of Tampa. We currently have a tornado watch. We are inland and at this time we have light rain and very little wind.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #44 on: September 02, 2016, 01:12:11 AM »
#Hermine will pass over western Atlantic SSTs that are anomalously warm by 1-3°C #passthepopcorn
https://twitter.com/pdemenocal/status/771475117306249216
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #45 on: September 02, 2016, 01:15:50 AM »
Latest @NWSWPC outlooks shows #Hermine stalled off New Jersey/Long Island/Cape Cod for five days, till next Thursday
 https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/771483869044350976

See link for images.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #46 on: September 02, 2016, 01:55:08 AM »
With Cat. 1 (and intensifying) Hermine baring down on us (I live in Tallahassee, Florida - landfall expected in about 5 hours), I've let slip my reading on the forum's various threads.  I guess this demonstrates that all 'politics' is local!

So far, 18 mm (7/10ths of an inch, according to my rain gauge) of rain has fallen since this morning (but I expect steady rain into tomorrow - 125-185mm (5-7+") more, according to NOAA forecasts), and high branches are waving just a little bit (hello there - we're getting ready to frighten you out of your socks later tonight).  [PS: just now the rainfall intensity has picked up considerably - this is what I expect all night.]

My previous tropical weather experience was with Tropical Storm Fay in 2008 that dropped over 600 mm (24") in my rain gauge over a 7-day period, so the rain event part of this experience shouldn't offer surprises.  This is this house's first hurricane, and I've not ever experienced the predicted winds with trees around.  (Mt. Washington, New Hampshire and cyclones in the South Pacific offered no possibility of falling trees.)

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #47 on: September 02, 2016, 02:32:28 AM »
I was just about to post that picture. Sorry to see that you are in the path of this storm. I don't remember seeing a tropical storm develop so quickly. Looking at the eye and the central dense overcast, I'm thinking it could be a cat 2 before it makes landfall.

I'm about twenty five miles northeast of Tampa in Zephyrhills. An hour ago one of the outer rain bands came through with wind driven rain and gusts up to 30mph or so. I hope you and your family and your house weather the storm safely.
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #48 on: September 02, 2016, 10:26:53 AM »
While Tor Bejnar is up in Tallahassee probably weathering the worst of this hurricane, I'm about halfway down the Florida peninsula about 25 miles northeast of Tampa more or less directly under the "tail" of Hermine. I've been expecting this rain band for a while and at the moment we have heavy rain with winds around 10 to 20 mph.

Didn't expect a tail like rain band to form, but the storm is drawing a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. We're still under a tornado watch until 8:00 AM EDT. 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #49 on: September 02, 2016, 12:12:52 PM »
Hope you folks in Florida are okay.  Looks like the U.S. east coast will get a major wallop next.

#Hermine gets into Atlantic, will expand, massive in size as non-tropical this weekend. Then transition to hurricane
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/771591249191051264

Latest (00Z) Euro agrees w/ GFS: #Hermine will stall offshore NJ for 4-6 days
Start prepping for major coastal flood
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/771603613462298624

Latest coastal flood fcst for Atlantic City, NJ shows #Hermine surge within 6 inches of all-time record set in 1992.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/771598945223008257

Images: projected wind speed on Sunday; Atlantic City, NJ tide level forecast.
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