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Author Topic: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season  (Read 42538 times)

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #100 on: September 28, 2016, 05:18:47 PM »
T.S. Matthew has formed near the Windward Islands today, heading west, but expected to make a sharp turn to the NNW in the next five days.


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #101 on: September 28, 2016, 05:54:35 PM »
T.S. Matthew has formed near the Windward Islands today, heading west.

You beat me to it!

Jamaica's in for some trouble if the current forecast holds good.
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #102 on: September 28, 2016, 06:45:51 PM »
T.S. Matthew has formed near the Windward Islands today, heading west.

You beat me to it!

Jamaica's in for some trouble if the current forecast holds good.

Hope you don't mind Jim, this being your thread and all.

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #103 on: September 28, 2016, 11:29:30 PM »
I don't mind at all. The more the merrier as far as I'm concerned.

Matthew's forecast track is edging towards Haiti on update 2:
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #104 on: September 29, 2016, 10:55:29 PM »
Matthew is now officially a hurricane:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #105 on: September 30, 2016, 09:54:04 AM »
Matthew is now forecast to become a major hurricane.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Matthew could become a major hurricane later today or tonight.


He is currently heading for Guantanamo Bay:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #106 on: September 30, 2016, 06:25:36 PM »
Matthew is already officially a major hurricane:

HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 70.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #107 on: September 30, 2016, 07:37:05 PM »
Ed Vallee:  Latest HWRF data has #Matthew landfalling in #Jamaica Sunday night as a Category 3 or 4 storm. Devastating.
https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/781885941493460992

Steve Bowan:  Caribbean path & intensity forecast for #Matthew similar to Sandy in 2012; which had a high economic cost in Cuba ($2B) & Jamaica ($100M).
https://twitter.com/stevebowenwx/status/781879904950419456

Sam Lillo:  worth noting too, that #Matthew has rapidly intensified 40kts in 24 hours ... for which SHIPS RI guidance 24 hrs ago gave a whopping ZERO %
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/781877176324927488
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #108 on: September 30, 2016, 08:28:34 PM »
National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Rick Knabb:  We cannot rule out direct impacts from #Matthew for any location along U.S. East Coast. 
https://twitter.com/nhcdirector/status/781920011933851653

Philip Klotzbach: #Matthew currently has the lowest pressure (960 mb) for a hurricane this far south in the Caribbean since Emily (2005). https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/781915400690774018
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #109 on: September 30, 2016, 09:51:30 PM »
Here's the 2pm update from the NHC. Also the link is to the GFDL Hurricane Model Ensemble website with the latest projections.

http://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/hurricane/gfdl_ensemble/GFE_PREDEMO_2016.php?STORMID=14L&YMDH=2016093012_MATTHEW14L&prod=A11


Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #110 on: September 30, 2016, 11:23:22 PM »
Matthew is now an intensive cat 4 hurricane according to NHC.

mati

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #111 on: September 30, 2016, 11:55:28 PM »
cat 4 wow
and so it goes

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #112 on: October 01, 2016, 02:20:49 AM »
The 8pm update has the winds up to 150mph. The storm has slowed to 9mph, still heading WSW.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #113 on: October 01, 2016, 02:46:07 AM »
Here's the latest ensemble projections.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #114 on: October 01, 2016, 06:51:14 AM »
Matthew is now upgraded to Cat 5(!)

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #115 on: October 01, 2016, 07:10:10 AM »
The Nat'l Hurricane Center's 11PM EDT update, with ensemble projections.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #116 on: October 01, 2016, 07:14:39 AM »
The latest GOES satellite image of Matthew in infrared, showing a very small eye. Reminds me of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #117 on: October 01, 2016, 09:31:53 AM »
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...MATTHEW CONTINUES AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 72.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
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wili

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #118 on: October 01, 2016, 09:36:15 AM »
Philip Klotzbach@philklotzbach

#Matthew is the lowest latitude category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic on record (beating old record set by Ivan (2004)).
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #119 on: October 01, 2016, 01:03:03 PM »
Dennis Mercereau:  Matthew is now a category five w/ 160 MPH winds.
No model or forecast predicted this. Forecast 24 hrs ago called for 85 MPH winds tonight.
https://twitter.com/wxdam/status/782056955657457664

Sam Lillo:  With winds of 140kts, #Matthew has intensified an incredible 70kt in 24 hours! Only SIX other Atlantic storms have done this since 1851
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/782053856385507328

Sam Lillo:  At 941mb, #Matthew has the third highest pressure observed in an Atlantic category 5 hurricane
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/782053203302948864

Brenden Moses:  At 13.3N, #Matthew is the southernmost Category 5 on record in the Atlantic, surpassing Ivan 2004 which reached it at 13.7N.
https://twitter.com/cyclonebiskit/status/782053635811381248


Article:
Jamaica-bound Hurricane Matthew is Now a Record-Breaking Category 5
https://medium.com/@EricHolthaus/jamaica-bound-hurricane-matthew-is-now-a-record-breaking-category-5-8116ed40df04
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #120 on: October 01, 2016, 01:14:57 PM »
Matthew Becomes the Atlantic's First Category 5 Hurricane in Nine Years
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/matthew-becomes-the-atlantics-first-category-5-hurricane-in-nine-year

Captain Brian Barnes:  @nsj Check out the location of some of these vessels... There will be shipping containers all [over] the Atlantic for awhile...
https://twitter.com/brianbarneswx/status/782060383381164032

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wili

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #121 on: October 01, 2016, 04:01:31 PM »
Good coverage (as usual), Sig.

Matthew has now weakened back to a 4, and is predicted to weaken further as it moves north and passes over land masses (Jamaica, most notably). It has already made history, though.

Any guesses on whether it will follow Sandy's trajectory and hit somewhere along the eastern seaboard?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #122 on: October 01, 2016, 04:18:01 PM »
Any guesses on whether it will follow Sandy's trajectory and hit somewhere along the eastern seaboard?

The current ECMWF "guess" has Matthew well offshore, but GFS suggests this at T+174:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

wili

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #123 on: October 01, 2016, 05:44:40 PM »
Thanks, Jim.

A lot of these 'spaghetti strands' do seem to careen into the coast at some point: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Storm-Matthew?map=ensmodel
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #124 on: October 01, 2016, 05:46:58 PM »
Here are the latest ensemble projections from GFDL.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2016, 05:53:00 PM by budmantis »

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #125 on: October 02, 2016, 05:07:12 AM »
The projected path from NHC's 11PM EDT update and the GFDL Ensemble projection. Matthew is currently headed NNW @ 7mph. Looks like Matthew is expected to stay a major hurricane. Haiti will be affected the most, based on the current forecast.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #126 on: October 02, 2016, 08:11:16 AM »
Here's the 2AM EDT update from the NHC, along with the GFDL ensemble projections. It's going to be a close call for Florida and the southeastern coast of the U.S.

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #127 on: October 02, 2016, 12:21:51 PM »
The latest updates.

Haiti first. East Coast to follow? The latest ECMWF has Matthew much closer to shore. GFS T+138 at the bottom.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2016, 01:02:37 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #128 on: October 02, 2016, 01:54:49 PM »
I idly wonder what might happen to Haiti, and then to the Eastern Seaboard:

"Hurricane Matthew Aims At Haiti"

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #129 on: October 02, 2016, 02:30:05 PM »
I'm hoping it'll have shrunken ,while replacing its eye wall, as it slips between Cuba/Haiti but think that the Long Island encounter is an outsider as a landfall? I'm thinking it'll hang around the Bahama's as it stokes back up to a strong 4 ( or even back up to 5? pretty warm waters over the Bahama's) but then track west into the Carolina's as the Atlantic ridge beefs up and the low over the great plains slips SW?

Southern states U.S. needs, i feel, a strong reminder that though 'climate is always changing' that we have pushed that " changing climate" to the point where the changes are not good for a nations economic wealth!!! ( also why I'd rather Haiti/Cuba are spared!)
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #130 on: October 02, 2016, 02:42:13 PM »
NHC's 8AM EDT update on Matthew and the GFDL ensemble projections.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #131 on: October 02, 2016, 03:55:44 PM »
Southern states U.S. needs, i feel, a strong reminder that though 'climate is always changing' that we have pushed that " changing climate" to the point where the changes are not good for a nations economic wealth!!! ( also why I'd rather Haiti/Cuba are spared!)


It's hard to see how at least one out of Haiti or Cuba can avoid taking a direct hit. The Yanks are hurriedly evacuating "Navy families" from Guantanamo:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-matthew-idUSKCN122023
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prokaryotes

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #132 on: October 02, 2016, 05:55:17 PM »
I am a bit surprised that there is so little footage/reports from Colombia, considering the system impacted the coast for so long, and according to news reports there was a 4-5 year long drought. There is certainly heavy flooding in regions, but only very little photos so far, no real coverage it seems.

Reports are 1-2 day old
storm triggered heavy flooding in towns along the La Guajira peninsula of Colombia, but damage overall was minimal. Some officials were even grateful for the rain after a multi-year drought in the poverty-stricken area.

"Families that evacuated are returning to their homes," said La Guajira Gov. Jorge Velez. "The dikes and wells filled up, the earth is moist, and this benefits agriculture in an area where it hasn't rained for five years, benefiting the community."

Authorities say that at least 27 houses were damaged and two roads were washed out. One person, a 67-year indigenous man, was carried away to his death by a flash flood in an area where it hadn't rained for four years.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/mega-hurricane-matthew-threatens-jamaica-haiti-cuba-040643990.html

Some footage
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5-YZrMVaEk

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #133 on: October 03, 2016, 06:46:15 AM »
The NHC 11PM EDT update, showing Matthew headed north at 5mph and GFDL ensemble projections. Also included an infrared image. There are two features that stand out a bit with this hurricane; 1. A very small eye that seems to close and reopen frequently. 2. A large lobe of convection on the northeast side of the storm, which at times is actually larger than the central dense overcast itself, which I believe will cause even more flooding in Haiti.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #134 on: October 03, 2016, 11:00:44 AM »
The latest on Matthew:

http://econnexus.org/hurricane-matthew-aims-at-haiti/#comment-502862

A NOAA buoy measured 944 hPa. According to the BBC:

A hurricane warning is in place for Haiti, which is expected to be more seriously affected.

The category-four hurricane is due to bring up to 64 cm (25 inches) of rain.

That in turn could trigger life-threatening landslides and floods.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #135 on: October 03, 2016, 01:56:09 PM »
That buoy's recorded drop in air pressure is dramatic.

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #136 on: October 03, 2016, 02:22:57 PM »
Haiti could get nine *months* worth of rainfall from Hurricane Matthew.

Matthew Could Become One of Haiti’s Worst-Ever Hurricanes
The storm serves as a wake-up call for vulnerable parts of the world in an era of climate change.
According to Jonathan M. Katz, a New York Times contributor and former Associated Press Haiti bureau chief, the impact of a hurricane like Matthew is a big unknown in Haiti. “There are already warnings going out on the radio, but in Haiti right now, politically, essentially there is no government.” That means that, for many people, Katz says, “there’s nowhere to go. There are no evacuation shelters to go to.” (Katz adds that the government has reportedly opened 1,300 emergency shelters across the country, according to the AP, but that most Haitians won’t have a way to access them.)
https://psmag.com/matthew-could-become-one-of-haitis-worst-ever-hurricanes-f6d159951d5
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #137 on: October 03, 2016, 05:22:13 PM »
The 11AM update from NHC and GFDL ensemble projections show a higher likelihood that Matthew will make landfall in No. Carolina.

theoldinsane

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #138 on: October 03, 2016, 08:39:09 PM »
A significant westward shift in computer model guidance on Hurricane Matthew has occurred, and this could have big implications for the hurricane’s potential impact on the U.S. East Coast. The main reason appears to be stronger ridging south of 98L and north of Matthew than earlier predicted, which may help to nudge Matthew far enough west for major impacts along the Southeast U.S. coast.


https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3460

mati

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #139 on: October 03, 2016, 09:36:34 PM »
Apparently matthew is following a similar track to Hazel.  I remember Hazel, she was one of my very first memories (I was living in southern ontario) and i remember the amazing wind, lightning and rain...  I dont wish that to anyone on the eastern seaboard as it looks likely there will be big problems..
and so it goes

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #140 on: October 03, 2016, 09:46:49 PM »
GFDL is showing that westward shift as well, increasing the likelihood of a Florida landfall.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #141 on: October 04, 2016, 08:14:06 AM »
I live about 25 miles NE of Tampa, so this time of year I keep a close eye on tropical weather. With each update, the likelihood of a Matthew landfall in Florida seems to be increasing. My locale is now on the extreme left of the "cone of uncertainty" with the 2AM NHC update. GFDL ensemble projections show Matthew staying off the coast of Florida, (subject of course to change), with the Hurricane projected to remain at least a cat 3 until it crosses 30 degrees north latitude. The infrared satellite image includes disturbance #1 in the upper right hand corner.

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #142 on: October 04, 2016, 12:28:59 PM »
The latest updates:

http://econnexus.org/hurricane-matthew-aims-at-haiti/#comment-502873

I hope Matthew gets no closer to Tampa Bud. (I hope I've got that right!)

A certain Mr. Watts has finally got around to mentioning Matthew:

Now it looks like we might have some real trouble.


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oren

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #143 on: October 04, 2016, 01:59:45 PM »
Wow. It looks worse and worse.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #144 on: October 04, 2016, 02:15:42 PM »
Thanks Jim. The 8AM update shows the "cone of uncertainty" has moved ever so slightly to the east.
Disturbance #1 is expected to become a tropical storm today. I'm wondering whether it will merge with Matthew at some point.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 02:25:55 PM by budmantis »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #145 on: October 04, 2016, 05:15:38 PM »
The NHC report that:

THE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MADE LANDFALL NEAR LES ANGLAIS IN WESTERN HAITI AT 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING…

LOCATION…18.4N 74.2W
ABOUT 10 MI…15 KM E OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #146 on: October 04, 2016, 06:15:36 PM »
TS Nicole has just been christened:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #147 on: October 04, 2016, 06:23:29 PM »
Surely tented communities do not do well under 100mph+ winds for over 5hrs??? Not with up to 9 months worth of rain falling on you as you try and keep safe??? Very Bad for Haiti and still the U.S. impacts to come?

My guess is a swipe around Miami but then a landfall in North Carolina before it trawls north toward New England?

With Spring Tides already seeing flooding in Miami Folk had better hope that Matthew doesn't build a large bow wave of a storm surge as it passes along the Floridian East Coast? With anomalously warm water off the U.S. East coast we could see Matthew keeping strength as it slowly moves North on its first leg of U.S. destruction?

How will T Rump deal with this incident?

I have already had some U.S. deniers telling me ( even though I had not mentioned such?) that AGW had nothing to do with it and that  ''after Years of no Hurricanes''  the "Lefty N.W.O. warmistas will be all over it" ( the Hurricane)???........ oh well.....
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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mati

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #148 on: October 04, 2016, 07:03:14 PM »
there is also that companion blob currently over the dominican republic which is tagging along with matthew, curious to see if it will join the hurricane
and so it goes

CraigsIsland

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #149 on: October 04, 2016, 07:59:43 PM »
I started a new site dedicated to Tropical Weather (with Neven's blessing) that would be almost similar to this great forum in terms of depth and discussion.

Feel free to join us over at www.tropicalwatch.com - if you have any questions or suggestions for the site, I'll be happy to listen.

Craig