Author Topic: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season (Read 121738 times)

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #200 on:** October 06, 2016, 07:53:51 PM »

See GIF of HWRF at the link.

Eric Holthaus: Latest high-res HWRF (12z) shows #Matthew likely to inflict hurricane force winds from South Florida to Charleston, S.C. over 36 hours.
Hurricane #Matthew likely to inflict major hurricane force winds (>115mph) for 15-18 hrs from West Palm Beach to Jacksonville.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/784088051651792896

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #201 on:** October 06, 2016, 08:08:18 PM »

Mass evacuation of Embry Riddle flight school in process

https://twitter.com/sjc_sxl/status/784001070947196929

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #202 on:** October 06, 2016, 08:43:21 PM »

2pm ET update: storm surge forecast has increased.

Quote

HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
200 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River...4 to 6 ft Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...4 to 6 ft Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/refresh/MIATCPAT4+html/MIATCPAT4_061755.html

budmantis · « **Reply #203 on:** October 06, 2016, 08:49:48 PM »

The latest from GFDL, showing no U-turn south. Very surprised to see this.

P-maker · « **Reply #204 on:** October 06, 2016, 09:08:31 PM »

DWD (via Wetterzentrale) has 7-9 meter waves off E Florida for period 20-60 hours from now. Add to this the forecasted surge heights and a couple of high tides, and you have the recipe for disaster.

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #205 on:** October 06, 2016, 10:06:30 PM »

Quote

Eric Holthaus: The waters of the Gulf Stream, which Hurricane #Matthew is traversing right now, are record warm right now.

Just sayin’.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/784120640668180481

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #206 on:** October 06, 2016, 11:23:17 PM »

Nicole is now officially a hurricane:

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #207 on:** October 06, 2016, 11:28:53 PM »

While Hurricane Matthew has/is proving to be difficult to forecast, the attached Windytv ECMWF forecast indicates that by Sunday Oct 9th it could strengthen considerably while looping southward (to possibly hit Florida twice):

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #208 on:** October 07, 2016, 01:11:38 AM »

Eric Holthaus: Wow.
Stunning, Oval Office-style address to Floridians ahead of historic Hurricane Matthew by Bryan Norcross, Hurricane Specialist at The Weather Channel.

The Weather Channel: Important statement from @weatherchannel. Catastrophic impacts likely for those in Hurricane Matthew path:
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/784153827012382723

Florida Governor Rick Scott: Department of Transportation is putting up signs at highway exits to indicate when all hotels at that exit are full. If you can't find a hotel, go to a shelter.

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #209 on:** October 07, 2016, 01:45:01 AM »

Florida's Waffle House restaurants have closed!!! (No joke; they normally stay open 24/7, even in disaster areas. FEMA uses Waffle House closures to measure their response to an event.)

Dr. Marshall Shepherd: If you don't live in the South, you do not understand how significant this is as a threat indicator....

Waffle House: All Waffle House restaurants on 1-95 between Titusville, FL and Fort Pierce, FL are closed. Stay safe Waffle Nation! #HurricaneMatthew
https://twitter.com/wafflehouse/status/784119980208099329

budmantis · « **Reply #210 on:** October 07, 2016, 03:33:17 AM »

Here's the latest satellite image. No wind in my location yet, just a steady rain. Just had a roof leak repaired a few days ago. This weather event should be a good test for that. So far, so good.

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #211 on:** October 07, 2016, 04:32:01 AM »

Eric Holthaus: Right now, Hurricane #Matthew’s cloud field stretches from Central America to nearly Washington, D.C.

This is one big storm.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/784218404018229248

Shared Humanity · « **Reply #212 on:** October 07, 2016, 05:48:37 AM »

budmantis · « **Reply #213 on:** October 07, 2016, 06:09:26 AM »

Some information from the NHC and GFDL, shows conflicting forecasts for the future path of Matthew. Wind field info as of 11PM. Also text update at midnight, which needs a click. Here in Zephyrhills, we are getting the outer rain bands with light to steady rain. Wind about 5 to 15 mph. Judging by the forecasts tracks, the storm may not make landfall in Florida, but it will be close.

oren · « **Reply #214 on:** October 07, 2016, 06:17:39 AM »

The forecast track has been shifted slightly to the east.

budmantis · « **Reply #215 on:** October 07, 2016, 06:31:39 AM »

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-us-canada-37577478

BBC article shows evacuation order form for Pawley's Island, South Carolina. Those who refuse to evacuate must sign the form and list their next of kin.

budmantis · « **Reply #216 on:** October 07, 2016, 07:05:10 AM »

The latest satellite image from GOES. I could be wrong, but I don't think Matthew will make landfall in Florida. At least not this time! Situation here is nominal at this point with moderate rainfall and little wind. Cant get on the NHC website for now, will try later.

budmantis · « **Reply #217 on:** October 07, 2016, 07:13:00 AM »

Here's a better image.

budmantis · « **Reply #218 on:** October 07, 2016, 08:04:19 AM »

Finally got through to the NHC with the 2am update. Forecast track shows best possibility of landfall somewhere north of Melbourne near Cape Canaveral, but I think it will be a near miss. Based on what I've observed so far, the worst of this storm seems to be occurring for the most part offshore. For sure, bad things are happening on the coast and a little inland, but the worst of this storm is offshore. Also, Nicole is now a cat 2 Hurricane. One other note, the forecast track for Matthew seems to be in question as the NHC still projects a loop south, while GFDL ensemble forecasts show it heading east or ene after it has made it's turn right just south of North Carolina. The GFDL hasn't been updated for several hours.

budmantis · « **Reply #219 on:** October 07, 2016, 08:19:35 AM »

Here's the latest update from GFDL.

budmantis · « **Reply #220 on:** October 07, 2016, 08:59:02 AM »

3AM text update from NHC. Here in Zephyrhills, FL it has been quiet, with no rain for the past hour and very little wind. The cat wants to be fed and my better half wants me to go to bed, so that's all folks for now!

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #221 on:** October 07, 2016, 10:15:21 AM »

Hurricane Matthew Completing An Eyewall Replacement Cycle. What Is That?

Quote

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) GOES-R training online textbook,

Tropical cyclone (TC) eyewalls contract as they strengthen to the intense TC threshold. After the existing eyewall has contracted to its minimum size for that threshold intensity, the TC enters a weakening phase. All other factors being equal, the TC weakens when an outer eyewall forms; some of the moisture and momentum is taken from the existing eyewall, which dissipates. The outer eyewall contracts gradually and the TC regains its original strength or becomes stronger.

On October 6th (Thursday evening) Hurricane Matthew went through this process. ... the smaller eyewall near the center of the storm was eroding while the outer eyewall was becoming the dominant feature. Such concentric or dual eyewall structures can temporarily reduce the strength of the storm. At the time of writing Hurricane Matthew was still at Category 4 but its winds at 8 pm EDT were reported at 130 mph (down from previous updates during the afternoon), which still represents a life-threatening storm.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/10/06/hurricane-matthew-completing-an-eyewall-replacement-cycle-what-is-that/

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #222 on:** October 07, 2016, 10:24:29 AM »

Hurricane Matthew weakens to a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds off the coast of Vero Beach, Florida
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/070559.shtml

Eric Holthaus: Rough translation:
#Matthew will be a Category 3 with a large eye by morning. Still a big, bad storm.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/784243811052498944

Eric Holthaus: More good news:
Intensity-wise, Hurricane #Matthew’s max core winds have likely peaked. Storm will continue to grow in size, though.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/784245090445168641

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #223 on:** October 07, 2016, 10:36:52 AM »

Ryan Maue: As Matthew gets to Carolinas & interacts w/frontal system, some enormous rainfall totals could result. 20-inches+ possible in NC
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/784242128134279168

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #224 on:** October 07, 2016, 10:38:30 AM »

Hurricane Matthew Could Have Devastating Consequences for the Election
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/10/06/hurricane_matthew_could_have_devastating_consequences_for_the_election.html

Edit: Although devastation from Hurricane Matthew could make the election trend more Republican in Florida, and even North Carolina, Trump needs many more than those states to swing his way in order for him to win the presidency. He has long been expected to win Georgia and South Carolina.

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #225 on:** October 07, 2016, 10:48:56 AM »

Officials in Haiti just updated #HurricaneMatthew death toll to 339. Storm now bearing down on Florida. http://boingboing.net/2016/10/06/hurricane-matthew-worst-carib.html

'We have nothing to survive on;' desperation as Haiti toll hits 339
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-matthew-haiti-idUSKCN12613S

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
IFRC: We have launched an emergency appeal to assist 50k people affected by #HurricaneMatthew in #Haiti. Support our work: https://www.ammado.com/widget/donate?179627

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #226 on:** October 07, 2016, 12:43:39 PM »

http://econnexus.org/wp-admin/comment.php?action=editcomment&c=502894

Quote

As we have previously reported, cholera is an ever present danger in Haiti. Expect deaths from the disease to far exceed those from the direct consequences of Matthew's passage over the coming months.

The "baseline" data:

http://mspp.gouv.ht/site/downloads/Rapport%20Web%2025%2009%202016%20Avec%20Courbes%20Departementales.pdf

budmantis · « **Reply #227 on:** October 07, 2016, 02:16:56 PM »

8AM update from NHC, along with the latest from GFDL whose forecast differs considerably from the former. Also a rainfall graphic.

oren · « **Reply #228 on:** October 07, 2016, 04:07:01 PM »

A buoy 20M east of Cape Canaveral measured 30ft waves a few hours ago, before it failed.
Lucky that this monster veered a little to the right.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

Lord M Vader · « **Reply #229 on:** October 07, 2016, 05:45:08 PM »

Incredible luck for Florida!! And the major hurricane landfall drought that have lasted since Wilma 2005 seems to continue...

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #230 on:** October 07, 2016, 07:35:30 PM »

Matthew Makes The “Protected Coast” the Most Dangerous Place of All

Quote

Many people consider the stretch of coast from northeast Florida through southern South Carolina as a "protected coast," immune to coastal hazards. Hurricane Matthew now threatens to slam this coastline with a storm surge more severe than anywhere else the storm has impacted. The Protected Coast is now the most dangerous place of all....

http://wxshift.com/news/blog/matthew-makes-the-protected-coast-the-most-dangerous-place-of-all

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #231 on:** October 07, 2016, 08:40:07 PM »

Steve Bowen: U.S. impacts from #Matthew far from over, but recognize these three slight wobbles likely saved Florida billions of dollars in damage.
https://twitter.com/stevebowenwx/status/784376445262901248

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #232 on:** October 07, 2016, 08:54:59 PM »

Jacksonville, FL dunes have been breached and the water is inundating neighborhoods now

Video: https://twitter.com/katie_jeffries/status/784462753280978944

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #233 on:** October 08, 2016, 01:51:28 AM »

NWS Eastern Region: #Matthew now Cat 2 w/ 110 mph winds. However, threats from water (storm surge and heavy rain/flash flooding) growing
https://twitter.com/nwseastern/status/784510877005443077

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #234 on:** October 08, 2016, 02:24:02 AM »

They reach the "eye" around the 55 second mark in the video. It's a bumpy ride.

NOAA Hurricane Hunters: Very turbulent flight today into the eye of powerful Cat 4 #HurricaneMatthew on WP-3D Orion #NOAA43. Credit: CAPT Tim Gallagher/NOAA
https://twitter.com/noaa_hurrhunter/status/784263203966431232

budmantis · « **Reply #235 on:** October 08, 2016, 06:38:41 AM »

Great reporting Sigmet!

budmantis · « **Reply #236 on:** October 08, 2016, 07:12:31 AM »

11PM update from the NHC and the latest from GFDL. Both NHC and GFDL are part of NOAA, yet there is a significant difference in the forecast track of Matthew.

Darvince · « **Reply #237 on:** October 08, 2016, 07:22:08 AM »

That's because the NHC is using more sophisticated guidance, the global models like GFS, ECMWF, UKMET.

budmantis · « **Reply #238 on:** October 08, 2016, 08:09:59 AM »

Quote from: Darvince on October 08, 2016, 07:22:08 AM

That's because the NHC is using more sophisticated guidance, the global models like GFS, ECMWF, UKMET.

Well thanks Darvince! Appreciate the input. Here's the NHC 2AM update.

Sleepy · « **Reply #239 on:** October 08, 2016, 10:38:18 AM »

I guess Sandy brought the public's attention to ECMWF. An article by Cliff Mass from yeterday.
"UKMET and ECMWF are clearly the best. Next is GFS and HWRF is in the rear. U.S. loses big time."
http://cliffmass.blogspot.se/2016/10/hurricane-matthew-which-forecast-model.html

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #240 on:** October 08, 2016, 01:41:13 PM »

Russell Dengel: Florida Lights out ... 10/06 and 10/07 #SNPP #VIIRS DayNightBand (DNB) Composite http://re.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=nppdnbdyn-upr.100,TSTRACKALL.40,TSPOINTALL.100&center=28.24148881730182,-79.32903461158276&zoom=7&width=1513&height=1066&timerange=2016-10-06%2007:00:00,2016-10-07%2007:00:00&timestep=86400s&animationspeed=73.57894736842105
#RealEarth™ #UWSSEC #UWCIMSS
https://twitter.com/russelldengel/status/784372348119986176

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #241 on:** October 08, 2016, 02:04:10 PM »

A horse farm in Florida spent days preparing, and successfully weathered hurricane Matthew.
http://www.horsechannel.com/over-the-fence-blog/2016/1007-diary-of-a-hurricane.aspx

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #242 on:** October 08, 2016, 02:17:31 PM »

Hurricane Matthew: Haiti south '90% destroyed'
Death toll now over 800, expected to go higher.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37596222

AbruptSLR · « **Reply #243 on:** October 08, 2016, 05:00:21 PM »

The linked article provides some discussion on how Hurricane Matthew has characteristics that may likely be attributable to climate change:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/07/opinions/sutter-hurricane-matthew-climate-change/index.html

Extract: "But as the impact of the storm becomes clear, there's an uncomfortable truth the rest of us should wrestle with: Hurricane Matthew looks a lot like future climate change. And if we want to stop storms like this from getting even more intense, we need to do everything we can to rid the economy of fossil fuels."

budmantis · « **Reply #244 on:** October 08, 2016, 05:11:05 PM »

The 11AM NHC update and the latest projections from GFDL.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #245 on:** October 08, 2016, 08:31:28 PM »

More video from Jérémie:

http://econnexus.org/hurricane-matthew-aims-at-haiti/#comment-502898

Matthew made landfall in South Carolina earlier today, and is now directly over Myrtle Beach:

http://econnexus.org/hurricane-matthews-storm-surge-threatens-florida/#comment-502902

Winds are down to 75 mph, which is some small mercy in all the circumstances.

Quote

Most of the global models, primarily the GFS and the UKMET, forecast that Matthew will become entangled with a cold front, and the new NHC forecast calls for Matthew to become absorbed within this frontal system within the next couple of days. During the next 12 to 24 hours, while the Matthew is hugging the US coast and taking on a more extratropical structure, the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to expand and strengthen in the western semicircle and continue to affect portions of the coast within the warning area.

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #246 on:** October 08, 2016, 10:44:51 PM »

Images:
1) Rainfall, in inches, over the past 72 hours.
2) Additional rainfall expected on Sunday -- up to 8 inches (200mm)!

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #247 on:** October 09, 2016, 01:22:02 AM »

Andrew Freedman: Wondering why Florida escaped with relatively minor wind damage? Look at this map of Hurricane Matthew's wind history. Red = hurricane force.
https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/784868080073773056

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #248 on:** October 09, 2016, 01:33:36 AM »

Ryan Maue: Still more than a foot [300mm] of rain to fall across eastern North Carolina as #Matthew plods along. > 4 trillion gallons
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/784804150714437633

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #249 on:** October 09, 2016, 02:44:58 PM »

Video clips:

Flooding in Norfolk, Virginia. Water up to hips. People stranded in vehicles #HurricaneMatthew
https://twitter.com/hwallsmithtv/status/784933510016565248

Jim Cantore near Fayetteville, North Carolina: Making our way to Lumberton on 211 as water is trying to get to mainstream rivers
https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/785091523973042176

Image below: major highways (Interstate 95 and 40) still closed near Fayetteville, NC. Flooding; trees and debris on road.

News:

Author Topic: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season (Read 121738 times)

Shared Humanity

Sleepy