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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #50 on: September 02, 2016, 05:24:20 PM »
The latest projected track for Hermine as of 11:00 AM EDT. Hopefully there wont be a repeat of Sandy, but it does look a bit ominous.

We're not in bad shape at all here. Our runoff ponds are full though, so a couple days or more of rain free weather would be nice.
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Darvince

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #51 on: September 03, 2016, 12:41:34 AM »
Why does the NHC have it turning into an extratropical low? Most guidance show it redeveloping as a tropical cyclone into a hurricane.

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #52 on: September 03, 2016, 01:37:38 AM »
Hermine is expected to be at hurricane strength overnight Sunday, but it will be meandering about off the coast for several days at tropical storm strength.  Not that the difference will matter much.  Coastal effects are expected to be severe.

Eric Holthaus:  Latest (18Z) GFS moves #Hermine closer toward NJ coast, in line w/ 12Z Euro. Prepare for a hurricane.
Last 4 runs here:  https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/771826902982008832

Hermine is Set to Ruin Labor Day Weekend for the Mid-Atlantic
http://wxshift.com/news/hermine-is-set-to-ruin-labor-day-weekend-for-the-mid-atlantic

Eric Holthaus:  Latest coastal flood guidance now shows possibility of record-level flooding at Atlantic City, NJ on Sun pm #Hermine
   For reference, at Atlantic City:
Sandy 8.8ft
Record 9.0ft (1992 nor’easter)
Current #Hermine worst case 9.1ft
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/771827681667145729
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #53 on: September 03, 2016, 02:39:28 AM »
Why does the NHC have it turning into an extratropical low? Most guidance show it redeveloping as a tropical cyclone into a hurricane.

I don't know why, but I was wondering the same thing. According to the latest update from the Natl Hurricane center at 8 PM EDT, it does show the storm strengthening back to a hurricane once it is back over water, but only for a short time.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #54 on: September 03, 2016, 02:58:24 AM »
Tor, you ok? Busy with cleanup or power outages most likely.  Trust you and yours are safe and well. Cheers

budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #55 on: September 03, 2016, 08:10:51 AM »
Here's the 2AM update from the NWC. Hermine is expected to head NNW for a brief period on Sunday, which will give residents along the mid-atlantic seaboard the jitters. The forecast track is oddly reminiscent of Sandy in 2012, until it is forecast to jog to the NE.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #56 on: September 03, 2016, 03:09:48 PM »
I’m  @ 40deg N, a mile off the North Atlantic, and 2 hundred yards off the Back Bay,
and don’t like the looks of this. For 2 days it’s going to sit off-shore and blow water up against the coast, and into the bays which will not be able to escape.  :(

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #57 on: September 03, 2016, 03:41:18 PM »
I too hope all is well with Tor and family.

The "banana" seems to have straightened out somewhat:
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Neven

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #58 on: September 03, 2016, 04:15:50 PM »
I read on a Dutch website that half of Tallahassee was out of power, so maybe Tor is part of that half. Hope they get it back soon.
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #59 on: September 03, 2016, 05:49:32 PM »
I’m  @ 40deg N, a mile off the North Atlantic, and 2 hundred yards off the Back Bay,
and don’t like the looks of this. For 2 days it’s going to sit off-shore and blow water up against the coast, and into the bays which will not be able to escape.  :(

I hear you Bligh. According to the NWC 11AM EDT update, the kink in the "banana" is back and it looks like the storm is going to hang around for several days, before finally heading off to the ENE. For you folks on the mid-atlantic seaboard, that is way too close for comfort. Here's hoping that the next update will have better news!
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #60 on: September 03, 2016, 06:59:33 PM »
Duke Energy say that:

Hermine caused power outages for more than 215,000 Duke Energy customers in 31 of the 35 Florida counties we serve. Many of the outages from this storm are impacting small groups of customers and damage is spread over a large area.


http://outagemap.duke-energy.com/fl/default.html

Meanwhile over on the East Coast:

http://outagemap.duke-energy.com/ncsc/default.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #61 on: September 03, 2016, 07:13:45 PM »
Eric Holthaus:  Water temperatures right now off New Jersey are warm enough to sustain a hurricane—about 3-6°F warmer than normal.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/772096712202526720

Gary Szatkowski: Life threatening Inundation for the NJ and DE coastlines!  Is this clear enough?

National Hurricane Center:  Key messages from NHC for Tropical Storm #Hermine issued at 11 am EDT Saturday. hurricanes.gov @NHCDirector
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/772088682853572608
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #62 on: September 03, 2016, 07:16:06 PM »
Eric Holthaus:  This is why meteorologists are so worried about #Hermine: The storm will generate 30-foot waves & send them to shore
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/772104671754268673
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #63 on: September 03, 2016, 07:38:49 PM »
Thanks Sigmetnow. The information in your above posts adds a lot of depth to the forecast. It also paints the possible consequences in the starkest terms. This storm doesn't have to make landfall to cause a lots of damage.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #64 on: September 03, 2016, 11:26:30 PM »
By my (very!) rough reckoning there are currently at least 170,000 properties without electricity thanks to Hermine, including 50,000 in Tallahassee.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #65 on: September 04, 2016, 02:07:55 AM »
National Weather Service - Weather Prediction Center:  Precip amts from #Hermine were 8-10+ inches along W FL and Carolina coasts.
Specifics:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/772113334325968897
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #66 on: September 04, 2016, 01:28:10 PM »
Hermine has transitioned to a post-tropical storm (explanation below) and moved slightly offshore.  The main threat remains to be storm surge, which will remain for days as the steering currents for the storm have essentially vanished.

High Winds From Hermine Lash Mid-Atlantic, Drive Dangerous Storm Surge
By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on September 03, 2016
Tropical Storm Warnings were flying from northern North Carolina to New York and Connecticut late Saturday morning as Tropical Storm Hermine emerged over the waters off the coast of North Carolina. Hermine rolled off the Outer Banks of North Carolina near Nags Head around 8:00 am EDT Saturday, moving east-northeast at 15 mph, and was located about 80 miles southeast of Norfolk, VA as of the 11:00 am EDT advisory from NHC. Hermine completed the transition from a tropical storm to an extratropical storm Saturday morning, and is now officially called Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine. A post-tropical cyclone is a storm that derives its energy from atmospheric dynamics and contrasts rather than from the heat of the ocean. In a post-tropical cyclone, the circulation is often tilted northward from the surface to upper levels, resulting in an asymmetric comma shape typical of a mid-latitude winter storm. Radar and satellite imagery shows this configuration in place for Hermine: the strongest thunderstorms on Saturday morning were more than 200 miles northeast of Hermine’s low-level center. The new version of Hermine is just as powerful as the old one, though, with top winds now back up to 65 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out more than 200 miles northeast of Hermine’s center. Duck Pier, NC, recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph gusting to 73 mph.
...
Hermine’s strange journey ahead: a unusual danger for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast
Despite its new classification as a post-tropical system, Hermine will continue to be tracked through advisories by the National Hurricane Center until it no longer poses a threat to land. They will have a difficult job: over the next few days, Hermine will take one of the oddest and most unsettling trajectories in memory for a named storm along the U.S. East Coast. The upper-level trough that pulled Hermine northeastward is now leaving it behind, and steering currents will become very weak. As a result, Hermine will spin for several days in the region east of the Mid-Atlantic and south of New England, gradually working its way northward. Because Hermine will be slowing to a crawl close to the north edge of the Gulf Stream on Sunday and Monday, it will be near or atop sea-surface temperatures of 26-28°C (79-82°F), which is at least 2°C above average and more than warm enough to support tropical development. Instability in the atmosphere will be enhanced by some residual cold air aloft, a fragment of the departing trough. As a result of all this, Hermine is likely to re-organize from Sunday into Monday into a more symmetric, warm-core system, perhaps embedded within the weak upper low fragment.

It’s unclear whether Hermine will again be technically classified as a tropical storm or hurricane rather than a post-tropical storm, but that point is moot in terms of impact. Computer models are near-unanimous in bringing Hermine’s top winds up to or above hurricane strength for at least a few hours on Sunday night or Monday. NHC’s official outlook at 11 am NHC outlook puts Hermine at minimal hurricane strength from Sunday night to Tuesday morning. Hermine’s peak winds are expected to remain stronger than their current 65 mph until at least Wednesday.

Our best track models--the GFS, Euro, and UKMET--agree that Hermine will remain within about 150 to 250 miles of the coast till at least the middle of next week before a more definitive move out to sea. Because steering currents are so weak, we cannot yet be certain how long Hermine will linger nearby. We can expect some erratic small-scale motion, perhaps including one or more clockwise or counterclockwise loops, especially from Sunday through Tuesday. Any of these small jogs might bring Hermine closer to, or farther from, the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastline. Fortunately, there is no sign of any large-scale upper-level feature that would pull Hermine well inland, and eventually the polar jet stream will dip far enough south to haul Hermine out to sea.
...
Major storm surge flooding expected along mid-Atlantic, Northeast coast
The next phase of Hermine could easily be more destructive than its Florida landfall. An unusually prolonged period of high surf, beach erosion, and storm-surge flooding will unfold along the coastline from Delaware to New York. In some places, the peak surge could be comparable to that experienced during Hurricane Irene in 2011, with at least some level of high water persisting for days on end. There is very high confidence on the long duration of this event, which raises the odds of back-bay flooding that could intensify over several days as water is continually pushed inland. Multiple days of strong wind and heavy surf are likely to produce enormous amounts of damaging beach erosion. ...
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/high-winds-from-hermine-lash-midatlantic-drive-dangerous-storm-surge
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #67 on: September 04, 2016, 05:48:17 PM »
Hermine 's track his taken it farther out to sea than expected, which may reduce the storm surge threat a little. Probabilities for tropical storm force winds have diminished and precipitation will occur mostly offshore.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #68 on: September 04, 2016, 09:24:11 PM »
We Haven’t Seen Many Storms Like Hermine
Based on the current forecasts, Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine is a storm without a good historical comparison. Hermine was once a tropical cyclone that made landfall in Florida, but that seems like ages ago. It has now transitioned to its post-tropical stage after moving northeast across land, off the coast of North Carolina, where it’s partially drawing energy from the jet stream. Hermine is forecast to affect the Mid-Atlantic over the next several days as a hurricane-strength storm, with a potentially historic coastal flood.

Of the 10 or so meteorologists I’ve talked to in the last day or so, none can recall Hermine’s rare combination: a hurricane that has transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone, one that is forecast to transition back into a hurricane and one that will stall just off the East Coast for most of a week. It probably hasn’t happened before, at least going back several decades.

But before we get to how weird and rare of a storm Hermine is, let’s highlight its forecast. Hermine won’t be as big or as powerful as 2012’s Hurricane Sandy, but its impact might be worse for some communities for a simple reason: It’s supposed to spend most of a week in roughly the same spot, just off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
...
Hermine really has no precedent, at least in the modern meteorological record of the North Atlantic. Hermine has transitioned from a hurricane to a hybrid, post-tropical cyclone and will likely re-strengthen back to hurricane –– though it’s unclear whether the National Hurricane Center will change the storm’s designation again. The center notes that the interaction between Hermine’s tropical core and its more nor’easter-like influence could result in short-term looping motions of the storm’s center that are essentially unpredictable.

Even during peak hurricane season, hurricanes that pass north of the Delmarva Peninsula typically weaken because of cooler ocean waters that limit the growth of central thunderstorms. But not Hermine. This sort of storm arguably wouldn’t be possible without the near-record high ocean temperatures currently offshore. Waters between North Carolina and New Jersey are warm enough to sustain a hurricane right now, about 3 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal. That means the region where Hermine will be camped out for most of this week likely wouldn’t foster intensification in a normal, cooler year. Climate change is expected to make storms like Hermine even more common in the North Atlantic.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-havent-seen-many-storms-like-hermine/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #69 on: September 05, 2016, 02:13:49 AM »
Sign of the times?

@seanlauer:  Lower Manhattan was definitely prepared for the worst... #Hermine
https://twitter.com/seanlauer/status/772557353925345280
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #70 on: September 05, 2016, 02:20:52 AM »
Jersey Shore merchants 'paying the price' for Hermine forecast
This is a situation where you are damned if you do and you are damned if you don't," she said. "We had to rely on the National Weather Service to give us the best possible information they had and they did. We only declared an emergency late in the day. People were complaining we weren't declaring an emergency so now they're complaining we did declare an emergency."

"I think we made the right call and that is to err on the side of caution so people knew we were prepared," she said.

Michael Mavromates, broker and branch manager at Long & Foster Real Estate's Avalon office, said when he woke up and saw the sun out this morning: "I was glad, don't get me wrong, but I was stunned."

Sandbags surrounded the real estate office at 30th Street and Dune Drive, a precaution Mavromates said the office took "to play it safe." The office was previously flooded in January and during Hurricane Sandy.

http://www.nj.com/cape-may-county/index.ssf/2016/09/jersey_shore_businesses.html
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #71 on: September 05, 2016, 06:14:42 AM »
I guess that is the price of being vigilant. Sometimes the forecasts don't bear out, but if you don't prepare, you might be in a world of hurt.
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #72 on: September 05, 2016, 08:31:41 AM »
The NWC 2AM EDT update. Looks like the wind and rain threat has receded considerably. I assume the storm surge possibilities are still extant but diminished slightly. My brother in law lives in central Connecticut, so I've been keeping him and his wife updated as well. Its nice to see that for the moment at least, there is only one other disturbance in the Atlantic, currently located in the lesser Antilles. Chances for development are about 30%.
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #73 on: September 05, 2016, 11:18:27 AM »
The 5AM EDT updated from the NHC hasn't changed much. Looking at the GOES east weather satellite, Hermine has some convection in the northern part of the storm, but it looks like the storm will remain a cold-core cyclone. Forecast is subject to change of course!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #74 on: September 05, 2016, 02:14:41 PM »
Some Good News About Hermine and the Northeast
It’s about 200 miles further out to sea than anticipated.
As of Sunday evening, Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine’s predicted coastal flooding impact in the Mid-Atlantic has diminished based on what seemed to be an imminent catastrophe about 36 hours ago. Here’s why:

There’s some complicated meteorology behind Hermine’s transition from a tropical cyclone to a post-tropical cyclone and potentially back to a tropical cyclone. (The principal difference between tropical and post-tropical cyclones is their main sources of energy: warm ocean waters for tropical cyclones, and the jet stream for post-tropical cyclones.) What Hermine is in the process of doing is very rare. In addition to the morphing of the storm’s character, hurricanes don’t normally stall for days north of the Delmarva.

So, not only are weather models bad at predicting small-scale details of this type of transition—we also don’t have much history to go on. In this case, the full merging of Hermine with the jet stream took a few hours longer than we expected, which led Hermine to track about 200 miles further to the northeast — out to sea — than models predicted yesterday morning. ...
https://psmag.com/some-good-news-about-hermine-and-the-northeast-e618eb035d8#.e4wld148h
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #75 on: September 05, 2016, 02:25:24 PM »
@blythterrell :  I feel like if they'd tried a little harder, this could've been a haiku

Bill de Blasio, Mayor of New York: Hermine update. A beautiful day today. Tomorrow as well. But there are real risks created by this unusual storm.

https://twitter.com/billdeblasio/status/772546504271794176

@BilldeBlasio: We still may see flooding in low-lying areas, starting with tonight’s high tide. Be prepared. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/em/ready/flooding.page

https://twitter.com/billdeblasio/status/772546667400859653
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #76 on: September 05, 2016, 02:31:01 PM »
OK, so this is Pacific, not Atlantic.  Sue me. :P

Eric Holthaus [who lives in Tucson, Arizona]:  Meanwhile, Tucson may get a post-tropical cyclone of our own: Tropical Storm #Newton is the new guy out west:
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/772645875113795584
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #77 on: September 05, 2016, 05:54:03 PM »
Post tropical storm Hermine has made a jog to the NW and moving at 6mph, per the latest update from NHC. Sigmetnow recently posted about problems with modeling the movements of this storm due to its unusual behavior. Looks like southeast New England will have a bit more to worry about.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #78 on: September 06, 2016, 09:02:29 PM »
The tropical storm warning for Hermine has been removed. Meanwhile on the other side of the Atlantic:
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #79 on: September 06, 2016, 09:13:19 PM »
Here is the projected path for the next five days. The disturbance in the Caribbean is not expected to develop.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #80 on: September 07, 2016, 04:22:55 PM »
With Cat. 1 (and intensifying) Hermine baring down on us (I live in Tallahassee, Florida - landfall expected in about 5 hours), I've let slip my reading on the forum's various threads.  I guess this demonstrates that all 'politics' is local!

So far, 18 mm (7/10ths of an inch, according to my rain gauge) of rain has fallen since this morning (but I expect steady rain into tomorrow - 125-185mm (5-7+") more, according to NOAA forecasts), and high branches are waving just a little bit (hello there - we're getting ready to frighten you out of your socks later tonight).  [PS: just now the rainfall intensity has picked up considerably - this is what I expect all night.]

My previous tropical weather experience was with Tropical Storm Fay in 2008 that dropped over 600 mm (24") in my rain gauge over a 7-day period, so the rain event part of this experience shouldn't offer surprises.  This is this house's first hurricane, and I've not ever experienced the predicted winds with trees around.  (Mt. Washington, New Hampshire and cyclones in the South Pacific offered no possibility of falling trees.)

Our electric power went out about 8 o'clock on Thursday night and I listened to a tree crash through its neighbors around 10:30 pm (the 30"-75cm red oak took several trees with it, as it fell across my driveway) then went to bed. I 'missed' the wind and other night noises that my wife and countless others couldn't sleep through. 

My home still does not have electricity.  Where I work just got power yesterday (so I've been off since last Thursday afternoon when state offices closed so we could prepare for the storm).  I got my home telephone ‘back’ last night.  My community has a backup generator on one of the wells, so we have had intermittent water.  I bought some ice before the storm, so was fine until we could get out of the neighborhood on Saturday.  And we've used 20-30#s (10-15 kg) of ice each day since to cool the refrigerator.  Yesterday, my wife went to her brother's home to do some laundry.  My step-sons left town for 'the duration' and my daughter moved in with folks who didn't lose power.

I did have ‘fun’ using a chainsaw each of these past five days – trees across driveways (including my own), trees on roofs (I helped two neighbors – two others required a crane which came on Sunday), trees snagged over the community road, trees in drainage ditches, and broken branches, big and small ‘everywhere’.

(I've read only a couple of the items in this thread, and this is my first 'venture' back onto the internet.  In fact, other than for Tallahassee, I know just about nothing about what the storm's consequences have been (is it still out there, as had been projected?  I can find out!!!), and virtually nothing about any happenings elsewhere in the world.)

P.S. Reading this thread after my Sept. 1 entry:  thanks for the concerns expressed!
« Last Edit: September 07, 2016, 04:28:32 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #81 on: September 07, 2016, 04:50:36 PM »
Welcome back Tor and thanks for the update. Hermine stalled south of Long Island and has dissipated. Glad you and your family are safe.
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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #82 on: September 07, 2016, 11:00:37 PM »
Welcome back, Tor! Glad to see you and your family made it through okay.
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #83 on: September 08, 2016, 06:48:18 AM »
We currently have one disturbance in the Atlantic to watch. This is supposed to be the peak of hurricane season and although I'm glad it has been relatively quiet (Hermine excepted), I'm surprised their hasn't been more activity.

From a layman's point of view, it appears that conditions have not been all that conducive for tropical development. Here's hoping it stays quiet, but I wouldn't be surprised if it does the opposite!
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Darvince

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #84 on: September 08, 2016, 06:57:41 AM »
It's not been quiet, it's been average. There would've been a massive media storm if Gaston had been tracking about 1000 miles west of where it was.

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #85 on: September 08, 2016, 02:09:03 PM »
And now, the backlash because the northeast was not hit as hard as expected!  Get used to it, folks.  Our new atmosphere and oceans are primed for more storms, and as accurate as our forecast models are, they are based on an earth system that no longer exists.

Forecasters shouldn’t apologize for steering people away from beaches Labor Day weekend
Onetime Hurricane Hermine is all but a remnant swirl meandering off the northeastern U.S. coast. The storm threatened to ruin Labor Day weekend from the Delmarva to the Jersey Shore, but it ultimately drifted just far enough northeast to cause only minor problems.

Some meteorologists, Capital Weather Gang forecasters among them, urged vacationers to stay away from the beaches last weekend. Now we are facing backlash. Critics say we overhyped the storm, spoiling fun in the sun and harming local businesses.

It’s true that the forecast was far from perfect, but there’s no need to say sorry for erring on the side of keeping people safe.
...
Marshall Shepherd, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Georgia who writes a weather column for Forbes, put it this way: “I certainly understand the economic impact but I believe we must become a culture that prepares for the worst and is thankful (not annoyed) if it doesn’t happen.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/09/07/forecasters-shouldnt-apologize-for-steering-people-away-from-beaches-labor-day-weekend/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #86 on: September 08, 2016, 02:42:16 PM »
Tropical Storm Newton hammered Mexico coasts, but fizzled before reaching the U.S.

Tropical Storm Newton Makes Second Landfall in Mexico
By afternoon, southeastern Arizona was getting a lot of rain, but Newton had fallen apart. The National Hurricane Center stopped tracking the storm at 6 p.m. ET, when what was left of it was about 25 miles west-northwest of Nogales, Ariz.

It was a dramatically different story on Tuesday, when Newton smashed windows, felled trees and sparked widespread power failures in Mexico. Tourists huddled in hotels and residents sheltered in their homes as the storm churned over the Baja California peninsula.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/tropical-storm-newton-makes-second-landfall-mexico-threatens-u-s-n643756
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #87 on: September 08, 2016, 08:37:36 PM »
...
Our electric power went out about 8 o'clock on Thursday night and ...
it was restored on Wednesday about 10:30 pm.  Early this morning the City of Tallahassee Utility reported that just under 4,000 customers remain without power.  (Over 100,000 had lost power.)
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #88 on: September 09, 2016, 09:38:12 PM »
It's not been quiet, it's been average. There would've been a massive media storm if Gaston had been tracking about 1000 miles west of where it was.

Quite right Darvince. Thus far the tropical season has been average. What I meant to say was that for the last three days or so it has been quiet which to me was unusual due to the fact we are currently at the peak of the season. According to the NHC 2PM EDT update, it looks like it wont stay that way.

Click on nhc.pdf for the text that accompanies the NHC map.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2016, 09:44:29 PM by budmantis »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #89 on: September 12, 2016, 12:12:56 PM »
Disturbance 1 probability is up to 80% in the next 2 days:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #90 on: September 14, 2016, 05:04:27 PM »
And now we have Ian, Julia and TD Twelve:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #91 on: September 14, 2016, 09:54:05 PM »
A weather rarity: Tropical Storm Julia forms over land
How can a tropical storm form over land, rather than over warm ocean water? While Julia's center was slightly inland, there was plenty of bath-temperature water nearby, which fueled the thunderstorms that formed its core.

Another interesting phenomenon could also be at play: the "brown ocean" effect, in which a tropical cyclone gains enough energy from a saturated Earth to keep a warm core. It's too early for scientists to know for sure what caused Julia to form over land, but these theories will certainly be researched as a result of this rare formation.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/14/us/tropical-storm-julia-weather/index.html
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #92 on: September 15, 2016, 08:59:46 PM »
ECMWF 12z op forecast has TD-12 down to 940 hpa by D-10. If named, it will be TS Karl. The current ECMWF depicts a likely recurving hurricane before it reaches US east coast. Most likely Bermuda will be only land area threatened by TD-12.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #93 on: September 16, 2016, 03:11:07 PM »
Karl is born:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #94 on: September 16, 2016, 03:12:59 PM »
« Last Edit: September 16, 2016, 03:31:35 PM by Jim Hunt »
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mati

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #95 on: September 16, 2016, 03:29:38 PM »
GFS has Ian heading to Svarlbard hmmm what could happen?
and so it goes

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #96 on: September 17, 2016, 04:15:25 PM »
Karl has been christened, and is forecast to reach Hurricane strength:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #97 on: September 20, 2016, 01:50:09 AM »
Tropical Depression 13 enters stage right:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #98 on: September 21, 2016, 01:01:54 PM »
Karl has been downgraded. Lisa has been christened:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #99 on: September 22, 2016, 04:12:34 PM »
We're hosting this Q&A session today on reddit.com/r/science. They'll be answering questions later this evening. Ye can read everything without registering, but to ask a question or vote on questions you'll need to regester. Here's the intro:

----------------------------------------------------------

Science AMA Series: Hi Reddit! We are Dr. Frank Marks and Commander Justin Kibbey, hurricane hunters and scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML). We fly into hurricanes to help improve forecasts! Ask us anything!

Hi Reddit! As hurricane season is in full swing we wanted to give you the opportunity to ask us any questions you have:

My name is Dr. Frank Marks. I am the Director of the Hurricane Research Division at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. I received my Sc.D. in Meteorology from MIT. I’m an expert in tropical cyclones (known as hurricanes here in the US) and serve as the research lead of NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). I have been flying into tropical cyclones since 1980, and have logged over 10,000 hours on the P-3 aircraft! I’m here to answer all your questions about hurricanes and the latest hurricane research at NOAA. Ask me anything!

I’m Commander Justin Kibbey of the NOAA Corps. I am a trained P-3 pilot. In March 2010, I was selected for an interservice transfer from the United States Navy to the NOAA Commissioned Officer Corps, at the Aircraft Operations Center in Tampa, Florida. My first hurricane flight was in September 2010, and ever since, I have flown about 20 flights per year! I help scientists gather data by piloting planes into hurricanes. Ask me anything!

You can follow us on twitter @NOAA_AOML & @HRD_NOAA_AOML or visit our website www.aoml.noaa.gov to stay up to date with all the different research projects at the lab!

I’ll be back at 1 pm EST (10 am PST, 6 pm UTC) to answer your questions, ask me anything!


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Here's the link: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/53ydgr/science_ama_series_hi_reddit_we_are_dr_frank/