NSIDC 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: June poll

[Neven]

ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. One is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly/September average minimum (the one that is used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by ADS, previously by IJIS). Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting. You can discuss various extent/area data sets in this dedicated thread.

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This NSIDC extent poll will run for 7 days (until June 20th). Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

Here's how things are currently looking based on data up to June 12th:



These are the September minimums for the last 11 years (in millions km2, found here):

    2005: 5.57
    2006: 5.92
    2007: 4.30
    2008: 4.73
    2009: 5.39
    2010: 4.93
    2011: 4.63
    2012: 3.63
    2013: 5.35
    2014: 5.28
    2015: 4.63

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE/SIA data sets in this dedicated thread.

[Neven]

I apologize for putting up this poll so late in the month. I had made a mental note, but there's a cleaning lady who comes in and completely empties the desk every day.

BTW, I voted 'between 4.0 and 4.25 million km2'. Despite the current slump and weather forecast for the next 7 days, I think that one or two periods of weather that's conducive to melting will put this year firmly in the top 3.

[slow wing]

Voted 2.75-3.00 million km2.

If it happened it would be a record by quite a lot. As is recorded in the opening post, the current record is 3.63 million km2, from 2012.

Fragile ice & lots of heat from three sides (Pacific, Russian & Atlantic). So I predict the ice edge will advance further on the Russian side than in previous years.

Just about all the ice on the Russian side of the pole is first year ice and, not surprisingly, it tends to be thinner than in previous years.

I'm predicting what will be left won't be so much bigger than the red and yellow thicker ice region on the Canadian side that was measured here for April 2016:
.

To set the size scale, note that the total area (some of it land) inside the dotted circle showing 80 degrees north is pi*(10,000/9)^2 ~ 3.9 million km2, so I predict around 3/4 of that area for the monthly average extent minimum.

[magnamentis]

BTW, I voted 'between 4.0 and 4.25 million km2'.

neighbouring 3.75 - 4.00

[Paddy]

Voted 3.75 to 4.00. Even with the slowdown this far into June, 2016 still has the lowest extent, volume, etc yet (even if not by very much). So even without melt conditions as dramatic as 2012 from here on out, this year could still be expected to finish pretty low.

[DoomInTheUK]

3.75 - 4.0. There's still a lot of heat out there and it'll only take one good storm to shred the lightly packed ice. There's been a lot of water open for a long time, and that has to have been picking up heat. We might not see that heat surface for a year or two, but when it does, some areas will just go 'poof'.

[Tealight]

I voted 3.75-4.0 million assuming the melt season continues with slightly above average melting conditions. All variables are still at or near record low and the surounding oceans are warmer than normal.

My model doesn't predict average extent figures, but using average ratios of the past years I get the following:

NSIDC average september extent
-1SD  3.68
average decline: 4.18
+1SD  4.70

CT area daily minimum forecast:
-1SD  2.45
average decline: 2.78
+1SD  3.13

[Richard Rathbone]

Lots of stall momentum. That deep dip into September requires melt momentum and without it the question is whether it will get below 5, not whether is will get below 4. Predictability gets a lot better once into late June but its shaping up to be a 13/14 year at the moment.

[ChrisReynolds]

I apologize for putting up this poll so late in the month. I had made a mental note, but there's a cleaning lady who comes in and completely empties the desk every day.

BTW, I voted 'between 4.0 and 4.25 million km2'. Despite the current slump and weather forecast for the next 7 days, I think that one or two periods of weather that's conducive to melting will put this year firmly in the top 3.

What so you mean I'll have to update the figures in my spreadsheet? Grumble. Grumble.

At least it'll all be off the same baseline metric.

[Neven]

What so you mean I'll have to update the figures in my spreadsheet? Grumble. Grumble.

Yes, sorry. But you shouldn't have reminded me that this was still on my to-do list. 

[ChrisReynolds]

What so you mean I'll have to update the figures in my spreadsheet? Grumble. Grumble.

Yes, sorry. But you shouldn't have reminded me that this was still on my to-do list. 

I had thought it was in anticipation of the September data not being available. Based on the last news from NSIDC I expect it to be available by the end of the summer, maybe even August.

[TerryM]

4.50 - 4.75, or right about where we were last year.
This year started out to be a barn burner, then something happened ~ June 1st. Is there ANY possibility that the 'fire department', responding to calls of distress, is presently, in a clandestine manner, cooling off the blaze?
If so, efforts may be aimed at maintaining last year's figures. If not, June 2016 is proving to be a huge outlier.
Terry

[Feeltheburn]

I know that when Bernie Sanders talks people listen, but holy hell!  Last week I voted in the first Arctic Sea Ice extent poll and apologized for being so far out of the mainstream as to be almost ridiculous.  Now in the new poll my vote is lower than many and mainstream.

I better refrain from any further posting and resume lurking.  I don't want to have that much influence!   

[Neven]

I hate to burst your bubble, Burnie, but this one is for monthly average, whereas the other poll is for lowest daily extent. The NSIDC SIE September average is roughly half a million km2 (rule of thumb) higher than JAXA daily minimum. 

[seaicesailor]

Up a bin to 4.25 - 4.5. 4.00 - 4.25 Mkm2. For reasons explained in the other thread.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1493.msg80373.html#msg80373q

Edit: got confused in the approximate translation from the other IJIS poll to this. I expect a below-2007 number.

[kingbum]

My vote is with last year's extent 4.5-4.75....while I recognize that the extent is already low I don't see a runaway melting momentum that will be needed to go into record territory. The current extent is too low for me to confidently say 5.0+ yet. It'd have to be a slow next 30 days to get me to say that. Now that the runaway warming that was El Niño is finished I think how quickly we transition from El Niño to La Niña will ultimately decide the ice fate in the long run. If it's in neutral position come August and September we will see more melt...if it's phasing into La Niña conditions that ice will be more stubborn because Arctic conditions will be cooler like 13/14

[oren]

Voted 3.75-4.00, I believe there is plenty of melting momentum built into the arctic periphery in terms of lots of heat in the land, water and air. Traditionally that heat would not mix with the core ice due to distance, but this year the ice is very mobile and pushed around easily, so it might come to the melt zones instead. Specifically the whole Fram/Svalbard/FJL area is waiting to finish whatever comes its way, Chukchi might prove the same, things might still get interesting.

[Juan C. García]

I vote for 4-4.25 million km2. Even that we have an important slow down of the melt in June, I still believe that we are going to be under 2007 this year.

[epiphyte]

I dropped to 2.5-2.75M. Never have believed that the extent/area (or PIOMAS volume) numbers in June are worth much in September - especially with the remaining volume mostly spread out across uniformly thin ice. This year there seems to be more energy around than ever - and there doesn't seem to be anywhere much to sink it which isn't going to cause a lot of damage.

[Steven]

I voted for 4.25-4.5.

This is based on the regression method I used in the other poll thread last week.  Currently this gives an estimate of 4.4 +/- 0.8 million km² (95% prediction interval) for the NSIDC extent for September 2016.

[iceman]

Going in at 4.25 to 4.50, if only to average up the wisdom of the crowd by a fraction

[crandles]

99 votes and voting closes very soon so get your votes in.

[VeliAlbertKallio]

http://globalweatherlogistics.com/seaiceforecasting/gfs.850mb.temps.arctic.html The current multipolarity of coldest 850 mb air mass (19.06.2016) suggest a continuing volatility of the Northern Hemisphere's polar vortex and its erratic Jet streams. On the other hand, the Central Arctic (Basin) manifests a very enduring depression system associated with steep temperature gradients that are pulling warm continental air to face and mix with the cold oceanic air over the Central Arctic Ocean. I suggest that strong localised pumping effect occurs in the leads in sea ice with flushing water effect accelerating loss of ice volume on the edges. The pulverization of sea ice simultaneously increases the 3-dimensional (water-sitting) sea ice surface area of broken ice. Over the larger areas a wider Ekman transportation brings warmer water upswell from deeper ocean. I suspect the combination of all these forces drives the very fast thinning of the quarter-sector from the Laptev Sea to the North Pole in the US Navy chart (17.06.2016): http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif Because of these I have felt necessary to readjust the sea ice area minimum down by 1 million km2 (to 2.75-3.00 million km2) as these latest forecasts came in.

[Feeltheburn]

I hate to burst your bubble, Burnie, but this one is for monthly average, whereas the other poll is for lowest daily extent. The NSIDC SIE September average is roughly half a million km2 (rule of thumb) higher than JAXA daily minimum. 

My apologies.  I see my mistake and will read more closely before popping off.  My alter ego dropped out of the race shortly after my feux pax!

[Feeltheburn]

By the way, my vote was 4.5 to 4.75 million km2.

[Steven]

From the June report of the 2016 SIPN Sea Ice Outlook:

https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/june

The median Outlook value for September 2016 sea ice extent is 4.28 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.10 and 4.63 million square kilometers (See Figure 1 in the full report, below). Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical, dynamical models, estimates based on trends, and two informal polls. This year the spread in the Outlook contributions is not as large as last year: the overall range is 3.40 to 5.23 million square kilometers, compared to last year's spread of 3.3 to 5.7 million square kilometers. The median Outlook value is also down from last year by more than 700,000 square kilometers. This year's forecast compares to observed values of 4.3 million square kilometers in 2007, 3.6 million square kilometers in 2012, and 4.63 million square kilometers in 2015. Only one forecast suggests a new record low is possible, one ties with 2012, while all others do not forecast a new record low for 2016.