So, one of the 'do or die' dates has passed. Did any ice that wintered in the Lincoln Sea pass into Baffin Bay before August 11? I'm fairly certain the answer is "No." This answer, however, is not as definitive as I'd like it to be.
on DMI's Kane Basin
TERRA images, I traced a small floe that crossed the finish line on August 10 back to near a Canadian bay in Kane Basin (so not Lincoln ice). Another small floe that was near the finish line on the 10th was traced back to southern Kane Basin on the Greenland side - this was lost under the clouds from August 1-6.
Using the Sentinel images, I traced a couple of floes that were in southern Kane Basin (on the Greenland side) on August 10 to a mass of ice that overwintered in Kane Basin. Other (August 10) southern Kane Basin floes appear to have been in northern Kane Basin on July 26, and well south of the 'big fellow' that I'm pretty sure was in Nares Strait all winter.
Plinius wrote on July 7th, "given the temperatures in the NW passage region - would it also be possible that the Strait opens, but the Lincoln sea ice never reaches Baffin before late october?" Now, was that a premonition?