Clinton "bounce" continues in the polls. On fivethirtyeight.com...now up to 72.4%
A "chartist" in the stock market would look at the following chart of the polls and note the following for the chart "how the odds have changed" linked below:http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
1) Clinton's "initial high in the polls" was on June 29th at 80.3%
2) Clinton's initial "low" in the polls was on July 30th at 49.9%
3) Clinton's bounce after convention took her to a new "all time high" of 89.2%
4) Clinton's "slide" from August 15th to Sept 26th took her to a "higher low" of 54.8%. That low wasn't as low as her earlier low of 49.9%.....so it is called a "higher low".
5) Clinton's current bounce is now up to 72.4%....and the next significant "point of resistance" is likely the initial high of 80.3% back on June 29th.
I am NOT a "chartist".....but charts ARE a "picture of the underlying psychology"....whether you are talking about stock markets...or political polls.
So while I am certainly NOT a strict "chartist"....I do watch them, because of the picture of the "underlying psychology" they represent.
A "chartist" will be looking for Clinton to have some "possible resistance" at the 80%ish level. IF she were to push UP through that resistance level.....then the next point of resistance would be her all time high of 89.2%
Keep in mind....that the FUNDAMENTALS are what cause the chart.....NOT the other way around.
The "fundamentals" of the current politics is this:
1) Clinton now has momentum due to a SERIES of Trump miscues and information coming to light.
2) The second debate is coming up on Sunday....and it is a chance for EITHER (1) Trump to stop the bleeding, or (2) Trump to "bleed out" and continue his drop....and Hillary's rise.
3) VP debate is tonight....and while it is NOT the "headline event"....it is a chance for Pence to help Trump.....or make things worse. I don't "expect" either one to land any knockouts...but we'll find out later.
4) There are hundreds of pages of tax returns that we have not yet seen just from the 1995 tax return. Will we see them?
5) We have Hurricane Matthew heading towards a track up the eastern seaboard of the US. It could make landfall in Florida....or South Carolina....or North Carolina. It has a lot of warm water underneath it.....will it make landfall before the debate? Will it be an "event" to talk about?
We just had a floor company come in and repair some of our hardwood floor. I asked the flooring guys (who happened to be Latina)....who they were voting for. The "main guy" said he was voting for Trump. So after they finished with the floors....I took 3 minutes of their time to show them 2 graphs (long term temps....and long term CO2) and explained to them that Donald Trump thinks those graphs are a hoax....and Hillary Clinton does NOT. And their vote is crucial....