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Poll

Who are you going to vote for?

Clinton
31 (70.5%)
Johnson
2 (4.5%)
Stein
6 (13.6%)
Trump
1 (2.3%)
Not going to vote / going to spoil ballot
4 (9.1%)

Total Members Voted: 44

Voting closed: November 26, 2016, 07:11:49 AM

Author Topic: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")  (Read 70488 times)

Buddy

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Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #51 on: October 02, 2016, 05:15:38 PM »
Trump tax issue.  Here's some information for those of you interested.

As most of you now know.....a few pages of Trump's 1995 tax return was sent to the New York Times (likely by a Trump employee)....and they showed them in an article in their paper.  It showed that Trump had an operating loss of over $900 million in 1995.

A few things to note:

1)  So much for being a "great business man".  A $900 million dollar loss in 1995 (more than 20 years ago) was a LOT back then.  A great business man doesn't have a $900 million dollar loss.

2)  The US tax code allows that a "net operating loss" (referred to as an "NOL").....can be carried BACK for 2 PRIOR YEARS....AND carried FORWARD for 18 - 20 years....depending on if you used the carryback period)......to "offset operating income in those other years."

3)  Remember....we already know that Trump didn't pay federal income taxes in 1991 and 1993 because he had to show those returns to state regulators.  So.....his loss from 1995 could be carried BACK to 1993 & 1994 to "offset" any business income in those years.  But it DOESN'T answer the "no income tax in 1991". That is BEFORE the 2 year carryback period.

So not only was Trump a "bad businessman" in 1995.....he was horrible businessman before that as well (no surprise).

4)  It also goes to Trump's LACK OF BUSINESS ACUMEN in future years PAST 1995.  NOL's can only be used to "offset business income".  So.....if carried BACK the NOL 2 years...and carried FORWARD any "unused NOL" forward for 18 years......it means that Trump was NOT able to generate enough business INCOME in the 20 year period to MORE THAN OFFSET THE ORIGINAL NOL.

Example:  If Trump had a $900,000,000 NOL in 1995.  He can carry that BACK 2 years...an forward 18 years to offset any operating INCOME.

So his total operating INCOME for the other 19 years in that 20 span.....WAS LESS than the operating loss from 1995.  If he truly WERE a "great businessman".....he would have had (for instance) operating income of $5 billion dollars....and that $900 million dollars would have offset PART of the $5 billion.....but he would still have $4.1 billion of operating INCOME to pay tax on.  But of course HE DIDN'T....because he is a crappy businessman.

In other words:  He was a horrible businessman for AT LEAST THAT 20 YEAR PERIOD.

Does anyone REALLY want Trump to do to the country.....what he did to his business?  I vote NO...

For those of you with nothing to do.....here is the link to the "Net Operating Loss" section of the IRS explanation.  Works wonders if you are having trouble getting to sleep ;)  Maybe Trump should read it instead of tweeting at 3 am in the morning. ;)

https://www.irs.gov/publications/p536/ar02.html
« Last Edit: October 03, 2016, 02:58:46 PM by Buddy »
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budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #52 on: October 02, 2016, 06:33:38 PM »
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/as-news-of-trump%E2%80%99s-taxes-breaks-he-goes-off-script-at-a-rally-in-pennsylvania/ar-BBwTB4z?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

The above is a Washington Post article discussing the tax issue as well as further rants from Trump at a campaign stop in Manheim, PA last night. He had some scripted remarks, but ended going off the rails again. It's a good thing this is happening NOW before the election.
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #53 on: October 02, 2016, 11:50:53 PM »
Here's a paragraph from an article (link at bottom).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last Wednesday, as the Republican presidential nominee spiraled down into a week that would ultimately be dominated by his personal attacks on a former Miss Universe and his seething response to poor reviews of his debate performance, NBC News reported that among those growing increasingly concerned about the trajectory of his campaign were his three adult children — Donald Jr., Ivanka and Eric. The kids, NBC’s Katy Tur reported, were starting to worry about the campaign’s adverse impact on the family business.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It was reported by another source a few months months ago that the business activity at the Trump organization businesses has slowed since the campaign started.  It has now slowed MORE apparently.

I expect their DC property to be "in trouble" in the not too distant future.  Too expensive.....and too many other really nice places to stay in DC.  There was an article that I posted a couple weeks ago....explaining that the Trump's were OVERBUDGET....and over their initial deadline (although Lying Donald said they were under budget and ahead of the timeline).   When did Trump ever let the truth get in his way.  As well.....the property is tangled up in litigation against at least 1 of the chef's that was supposed to open up a restaurant at the hotel.

It's kind of funny.  Someone with such an overextended ego like Trump.....get's in the "president game" to at least increase his "brand".....and ends up destroying it.   THAT....is what too much ego can do to someone.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-family-values-are-the-kids-starting-to-worry-about-dads-behavior-181141177.html

Vladimir is going to start wondering why he and his Russian bankers ever loaned Comrade Donald money....:)
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budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #54 on: October 03, 2016, 06:52:52 AM »
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/when-donald-trump-gets-in-a-hole-he-just-keeps-digging-and-digging-and-digging/ar-BBwUwxI?ocid=spartandhp

Here's a Washington Post article about how Trump keeps hurting his election chances by continually inflicting wounds on himself.
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #55 on: October 03, 2016, 02:06:08 PM »
I don't know how much a debate matters to Trump supporters. ...

The debates aren't about changing minds of supporters, they are about getting the "undecided" voters.

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #56 on: October 03, 2016, 04:29:11 PM »
On a related question to that: how definite are people's voting intentions here? Minds made up, or still considering? (I should have put a "still very uncertain" option in the pol, perhaps).

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #57 on: October 03, 2016, 06:54:13 PM »
Some other thoughts on Trump's "tax return issue".....

1)  It is now known who the tax preparer was.....and he confirmed that it was he who prepared Trump's tax return.  He is an attorney AND CPA....and is 80 and retired.

2)  Whoever sent in the 3 pages of Trump's....may have more pages to send in.  I personally would LOVE to see his "Schedule A" of itemized deductions....and a list of "Contributions".

3)  Trump was married to Marla Maples in 1995.  Marla would....or could get access to....the tax return.

4)  There are likely quite a few CPA's still looking over the tax return....as well as wanting to see MORE of the tax return.  There are a LOT of issues that are likely buried in Trump's tax returns.

5)  As pointed out in one of the articles I read.....there was almost ASSURADELY some bank debt related to his $916 million dollar loss.  Who was the debt with?  Was any of the debt forgiven?

I would LOVE to see more of the tax return....and other tax returns for years AFTER 1995.

Enquiring minds want to know.... ;)
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #58 on: October 03, 2016, 09:59:03 PM »
Some other thoughts on Trump's "tax return issue".....

 related to his $916 million dollar loss.  Who was the debt with?  Was any of the debt forgiven?


Buddy: In at least some cases, isnt forgiven debt considered income?
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #59 on: October 03, 2016, 10:16:38 PM »
Buddy: In at least some cases, isnt forgiven debt considered income?

YES.

Again...the little "snippit" of information we get from Trump's 1995 tax return will fuel the call to get Trump's FULL FEDERAL TAX RETURN.

A LOT of questions.....  Clinton is going to "ride that horse" for the next 5 weeks.
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #60 on: October 03, 2016, 11:05:39 PM »
Clinton up to almost 71% probability.  4% or more UP....and I will sleep a LOT better.... ;)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #61 on: October 04, 2016, 07:49:31 AM »
On a related question to that: how definite are people's voting intentions here? Minds made up, or still considering? (I should have put a "still very uncertain" option in the pol, perhaps).

It comes down to who we find most distasteful, Trump or Clinton. I'd say most Clinton votes are reluctant votes. The "still very uncertain" are voting for Johnson or Stein. The one Trump vote is a bit of a mystery as I assume that just about all participants on the Forum are critical thinkers.
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #62 on: October 04, 2016, 08:22:47 AM »
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-angers-with-suggestion-that-vets-with-ptsd-are-weak/ar-BBwXHeL?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

Trump angers with suggestion  that vets with ptsd are weak. Well, he's pissed off just about all demographics by now, why not go after those weak military veterans that had the temerity to acquire PTSD?
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #63 on: October 04, 2016, 03:43:51 PM »
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/04/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-new-day-interview/index.html

Biden on Trump: "He's not a bad man but his ignorance is so profound"
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #64 on: October 04, 2016, 04:12:05 PM »
Clinton "bounce" continues in the polls.  On fivethirtyeight.com...now up to 72.4%

A "chartist" in the stock market would look at the following chart of the polls and note the following for the chart "how the odds have changed" linked below:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

1)  Clinton's "initial high in the polls" was on June 29th at 80.3%

2)  Clinton's initial "low" in the polls was on July 30th at 49.9%

3)  Clinton's bounce after convention took her to a new "all time high" of 89.2%

4)  Clinton's "slide" from August 15th to Sept 26th took her to a "higher low" of 54.8%.  That low wasn't as low as her earlier low of 49.9%.....so it is called a "higher low".

5)  Clinton's current bounce is now up to 72.4%....and the next significant "point of resistance" is likely the initial high of 80.3% back on June 29th.

I am NOT a "chartist".....but charts ARE a "picture of the underlying psychology"....whether you are talking about stock markets...or political polls.

So while I am certainly NOT a strict "chartist"....I do watch them, because of the picture of the "underlying psychology" they represent.

A "chartist" will be looking for Clinton to have some "possible resistance" at the 80%ish level.  IF she were to push UP through that resistance level.....then the next point of resistance would be her all time high of 89.2%

Keep in mind....that the FUNDAMENTALS are what cause the chart.....NOT the other way around.

The "fundamentals" of the current politics is this:

1)  Clinton now has momentum due to a SERIES of Trump miscues and information coming to light.

2)  The second debate is coming up on Sunday....and it is a chance for EITHER (1) Trump to stop the bleeding, or (2) Trump to "bleed out" and continue his drop....and Hillary's rise.

3)  VP debate is tonight....and while it is NOT the "headline event"....it is a chance for Pence to help Trump.....or make things worse.  I don't "expect" either one to land any knockouts...but we'll find out later.

4)  There are hundreds of pages of tax returns that we have not yet seen just from the 1995 tax return.  Will we see them?

5)  We have Hurricane Matthew heading towards a track up the eastern seaboard of the US.  It could make landfall in Florida....or South Carolina....or North Carolina.  It has a lot of warm water underneath it.....will it make landfall before the debate?  Will it be an "event" to talk about?

FYI..unrelated:

We just had a floor company come in and repair some of our hardwood floor.  I asked the flooring guys (who happened to be Latina)....who they were voting for.  The "main guy" said he was voting for Trump.  So after they finished with the floors....I took 3 minutes of their time to show them 2 graphs (long term temps....and long term CO2) and explained to them that Donald Trump thinks those graphs are a hoax....and Hillary Clinton does NOT.  And their vote is crucial.... 

 


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budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #65 on: October 04, 2016, 04:29:41 PM »
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-backers-realize-they%E2%80%99ve-been-played-as-wikileaks-fails-to-deliver-october-surprise/ar-BBwYvPI?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

Julian Assange's much anticipated press conference earlier today disappointed a lot of Trump supporters. The Washington Post article reminds me of an event I went to in 1974 to see a faith healer who promised to "name the name" of the antichrist which of course was just a tease. Many event goers were profoundly disappointed, much like the people who anxiously awaited WikiLeaks press conference.
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #66 on: October 05, 2016, 06:34:22 AM »
Initial thoughts on the vice presidential debate:

1. Two experienced politicians that share some level of mutual respect, one (Pence) being very conservative, the other (Kaine) somewhat liberal. I thought they both did well, but I give the edge to Kaine. After last week's debate performance by Trump, I found the discourse to be far more professional.

2. I find it hard to comprehend how Pence could show up at this event and with a straight face, defend the actions of Donald Trump. However from what I consider to be an indefensible position, Pence did as good a job as possible to defend Trump, while attacking Clinton.

3. Kaine made no mention of climate change, while Pence championed the cause of coal several times.

4. Pence brought up points of view that conservatives have repeated often; weak foreign policy under Obama, the state of the US economy, and the budget deficit. All of this was said without consideration of who was president when the great recession occurred in 2008, or who started the war in Iraq under false pretenses. The president at the time was George W. Bush, a Republican.

5. Kaine did a better job controlling the dialogue by interrupting Pence often, while Pence shook his head a lot.
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #67 on: October 05, 2016, 12:21:25 PM »
Interesting debate last night.  My take:

1) Style points....Pence won
2) Substance points.....Kaine won
3) Loser of the debate.....Trump
4) Winner.....a few advertisements coming out of this one against Trump

In the US....we seem to have a "thing" for debates.  When is reality.....who "won" a debate, is all about "perception."

So the problem with debates.....is that most people judge on who they "perceived" to have won....instead of judging on WHO WAS RIGHT.

And that is how I always look at debates.  What was right.  Who didn't lie....and who did lie.  Mike Pence did a good job of "weaving and dodging".....but not of answering questions.

I like Kaine a LOT. Probably a little big "anxious" to prove that he can be "the pitbull" that a VP usually needs to be.  But if I were President...I would DEFINITELY want Tim Kaine on my team.  Kaine showed "good body language" (not of someone weaving and dodging)....and kept on the attack.  Pence was good at "rope a dope".....but not good at answering the questions.

And any thoughts of Pence running for president....I think are ridiculous.  If the Republicans choose a Pence or a Cruz next time around.....they will lose again.  Too much social conservatism....which the US is moving AWAY FROM.  US citizens are trying to tell the conservatives to STAY OUT OF THE BEDROOM.  And they aren't listening....
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Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #68 on: October 05, 2016, 01:16:49 PM »
A couple notes on the polls:

1)  North Carolina started early voting at least 2 weeks ago....so in another week or two, it will likely be "locked in".  Losing NC is death to any Trump dreams of being President.

2)  Florida continues to move further back into the Clinton camp.  And the combination of Florida AND North Carolina can not be overcome.

3)  Pennsylvania...moves further into the Clinton camp.

The next week appears to be make or break time for Trump.  Can he get a debate win....and shake Clinton?  I doubt it....but we'll find out Sunday.

In my best dream.....Clinton adds on wins in Arizona and Iowa and crushes Trump.  Unfortunately....we have another month to go, and anything can happen.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
 

John Kasich looks to be the one presidential candidate that will come out of this smelling like a rose....especially if Trump were to perform poorly over the coming month.  Also....Jeff Flake (Republican senator from Arizona comes out a winner).  Both of them refused to endorse or vote for Trump.....and both of them are "moderates".

Maybe the biggest loser.....if Trump does continue to do poorly in polls and eventually loses (especially if they lose big)...is the "Trump organization."  They....will be "on the ropes".  Within 4 years....they are likely toast.  Time will tell....





 
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Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #69 on: October 05, 2016, 02:33:05 PM »
Here are the most recent "approvability ratings" for both Gov Pence and Senator Kaine:

Kaine:  54 approve....26 disapprove

Pence:  45 approve....45 disapprove (it dropped since he joined Trump ticket)

Kaine is about "in the middle of the pack" regarding approval rating for senators.  Pence...only has 10 Governors with a lower approval rating.

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/behind-closed-doors/2016/09/20/poll-hoosiers-views-mike-pence-have-declined/90734760/
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #70 on: October 05, 2016, 08:25:47 PM »
Bill Weld.....3rd party candidate for VP.....now concentrating on stopping Donald Trump:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/3bf02685-6c6e-3460-9a96-e9b4a096bae6/ss_libertarian-vp-candidate-bill.html

This should help Clinton in the coming weeks, move some of the 3rd party vote from Johnson to Clinton...
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #71 on: October 05, 2016, 11:43:44 PM »
Using the same link above, you can read about Trump being unhappy with Pence about his performance in last night's debate. I thought Pence did well, but we all know the Donald is unpredictable. Maybe he'll go on another late night twitter rant?
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #72 on: October 06, 2016, 04:46:39 PM »
The bleeding continues for Trump.  Popular vote gap is back up to 5% on Nate Silver's site.

The fundamentals do NOT bode well for "The Donald":

1)  Post VP debate bleeding is far worse for Trump.  Pence may have won the debate on "optics".....but Trump is getting bashed by Pence's "looseness" with the truth...and his inability to defend Trump.

2)  The tax return fiasco is NOT going away.  Trump's tax preparer was on one of the talk shows last night.

3)  The endorsements for Trump are NONEXISTANT from papers/magazines.  The Atlantic absolutely SKEWERED HIM.

4)  Clinton has Obama, Obama's wife, Joe Biden, Chelsea Clinton, Senator Warren, and Senator Sanders out doing different rally's/events for Clinton.  Trump only has himself and Pence.  This will pay HUGE DIVIDENDS in this last month of "get out the vote".

5)  Clinton has an advantage of volunteers on the ground in battleground states.  Again...will pay dividends come voting day.

6)  Hurricane Matthew is likely a BIG HELP for Clinton....especially in Florida, and especially with millennial's......who are discovering that Gary Johnson wants to ignore global warming.  I expect Clinton to hit Trump with the climate change club on Sunday.  Even in Ohio....they want to act to slow down climate change.

If Trump doesn't stop the bleeding with a DEFINITE WIN on Sunday during the debate....the bleeding is likely to continue.

We could be looking at a =>6% "gap" in the popular vote by Sunday.  If Trump were to have another bad debate.....it would be "lights out".....and gap likely heading toward's 8 - 10% by November 8th.  If he has a good debate and "wins".....then bleeding might stop.   
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #73 on: October 06, 2016, 07:28:08 PM »
More good news for the economy......and bad news for Trump and FOX News. 

Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits fell last week to the second-lowest level since 1973, as employers show scant willingness to fire workers amid a tightening labor market.

Jobless claims dropped by 5,000 to 249,000 in the week ended Oct. 1, a Labor Department report showed Thursday in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 256,000. Continuing claims declined to the lowest level since 2000.

Filings were just a hair above the four-decade low of 248,000 from April, a sign of minimal layoffs ahead of Friday’s monthly employment report. Companies are going head-to-head in finding skilled applicants amid record job openings, indications of a healthy labor market that may encourage Federal Reserve officials to raise the benchmark interest rate before the end of the year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-06/jobless-claims-in-u-s-decline-to-near-lowest-level-since-1973

On Friday (tomorrow)....is the MONTHLY "Jobs report" (as opposed to the WEEKLY jobless claims report above).  There is one more jobs report AFTER tomorrow's....but that last one will be after most of the "early voters" have already voted.  So tomorrow's jobs report is really the last major report that could be "pounced on" by the Republicans.


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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #74 on: October 06, 2016, 09:40:07 PM »
So - shortly Trump will face a test too - extreme weather meets properties - I wonder if he will be more aware of the implications of climate change, sea level rise and worsening storms afterwards ?

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/06/politics/donald-trump-florida-properties-mar-a-lago-hurricane-matthew/

But - still hope everyone is OK.

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #75 on: October 07, 2016, 06:43:22 AM »
In regards to the Sean Hannity/Megyn Kelly disagreement, this opinion from CNN.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/06/opinions/megyn-kelly-sean-hannity-trump-safe-spaces-obeidallah/index.html
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #76 on: October 07, 2016, 07:27:56 AM »
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37582318

According  to this BBC article, Trump said 70% of federal regulations could go at an event in New Hampshire.
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #77 on: October 07, 2016, 01:09:48 PM »
Trump path to 270 is slipping away.  According to John Harwood of CNBC....this is the path the Trump campaign has settled on for the last month of the campaign:

1)  Win Ohio, Iowa, and Maine 2nd District (which he was ahead in 1 - 2 weeks ago)
2)  Win "Romney states" from 2012....which included North Carolina
3)  Win Nevada, Florida, and New Hampshire


A)  Well....he's no longer ahead in Ohio and Iowa...although they are VERY CLOSE
B)  North Carolina is slipping further into Clinton country...and I'm sure that both Obama's will likely be spending time campaigning in North Carolina.  I actually think that it is too late for Trump to take North Carolina...because many of the votes have already been cast due to early voting.
C)  Nevada, Florida, and New Hampshire are moving further into the Clinton camp as well.  And Bernie will be campaigning heavily in New Hampshire.  I think NH is lost for Trump.

Unless Trump gets a "decisive victory" Sunday in debate #2....and/or some kind of "event" or "big mistake" by Clinton....the doors are shutting quickly on Trump.  Of course....the headlines in the New York Times will be:  "Clinton:  You're HIRED" if she is able to win.

http://www.businessinsider.com/can-donald-trump-win-path-2016-10

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
 



   
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Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #78 on: October 07, 2016, 03:15:56 PM »
For those of you that may know something about golf.....or really about sports in general, you may know that it is hard to "change mechanics".  I'm talking about changing the mechanics of your swing in golf, or your swing in baseball, or your swing in tennis, etc.

That is because we get engrained HABITS.  In golf....Tiger Woods changed his swing a few times.  And it took him 1 - 2 YEARS to change it.  When people get under pressure....they go to what is comfortable for them.

That's why...in the coming debate on Sunday....I think it will be hard for Trump "to change a lot".  And if he is put under pressure by Clinton....he is LIKELY to go back to his old habits.

This doesn't mean that Clinton will win the debate.  She could have a bad debate, just like Obama did in his first debate four years ago.  But Obama was ALREADY a good debater.  It was just that in his first debate, he consciously "played it safe" and passive.

So on Sunday....I'll be watching Trump closely to see if he is able to change much.  The last debate he "held it together" for the first 20 minutes....and then fell back into his "old habits."  Will he be able to change for the whole 90 minutes this time?  Maybe....but I think the odds are against him being able to make a wholesale change.  Also....he needs to practice a LOT.  And he needs to do so under pressure.  Sunday will be interesting....

 
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #79 on: October 07, 2016, 05:32:01 PM »
It sure will Buddy and I agree he is likely follow the route you described. This being a town hall debate, which will involve more audience participation may help him, especially if they side with him. I think this debate will be harder for Clinton to win.
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #80 on: October 07, 2016, 06:37:02 PM »
OUCH ;)  I wonder how Rudy is feeling today?  Looks like a lot of people are trying to get off the USS Trump before she goes down:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rudy-giuliani-daughter-clinton_us_57f7bc99e4b068ecb5ddd201?section=&

If Chris Cristy's wife comes out in favor of Clinton....then we'll know its over:)  Of course.....Christy could be spending some time behind bars in the future.....and he might have a Democrat to share a cell with in New York governor Cuomo.  I say lock BOTH of them up.

This is the election that the Republican party gets blown up....and next election it will likely be the Democrat's turn.
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Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #81 on: October 07, 2016, 11:12:12 PM »
I think this one may be the fatal blow:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-women-comments_us_57f8016de4b0e655eab4148d

I would expect at least a few Republican endorsers to back out now.....before the floodgates open.

It will be interesting to see if Paul Ryan wants to be seen with Trump tomorrow in Wisconsin.  If I'm Paul Ryan....I call up and tell him NO F***ING WAY.  And then I pull my endorsement.

Maybe this one can bring Georgia back into play.....:)  Will certainly make for an entertaining debate on Sunday.
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #82 on: October 07, 2016, 11:43:28 PM »
Another Huffington Post article.  "Evangelical leaders don't want Trump to win".

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/evangelical-leaders-donald-trump_us_57f7b304e4b068ecb5ddc355?
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Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #83 on: October 08, 2016, 04:28:25 AM »
Well....well....well.  Where do I start?  How about the beginning:

1)  The GOP is in a world of hurt.
2)  You think that Kelly Ayotte would like to have her words back .....saying that Donald Trump was a roll model?
3)  Remember......early voting has already started.  So what happens if Trump drops out?
4)  Sorry.......I'm shaking my head.  I always thought it was incredible that ANYONE COULD VOTE FOR TRUMP.  AND THAT WAS BEFORE THIS SCANDAL BROKE.  Now....how could anyone vote for him?
5)  Before...I said Trump would be in bankruptcy within 4 years.  You can now move that up a bit.  Three or two years is now more like it.  He is now pondscum.  And financially nobody will touch him.
6)  Debate on Sunday?  Maybe not.
7)  Remember....we have a split supreme court right now.  This could end in an ugly way.  GOP will want someone else on the ballot if there is any legal way to do that...and Democrats will want Trump on their side of the ticket or nobody.  There may not be a way because voting has already started in many States.

It doesn't get any crazier than this.....or does it?
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #84 on: October 08, 2016, 06:33:01 AM »
Well....well....well.  Where do I start?  How about the beginning:


It doesn't get any crazier than this.....or does it?


I think I mentioned once before Buddy that you seem to be enjoying this TOO much (lol). Well, so am I!

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ryan-%E2%80%98sickened%E2%80%99-by-trump%E2%80%99s-lewd-comments-in-video/ar-BBx9zT2?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

"Ryan sickened by Trump's lewd comments on video".  Ryan to Trump; Don't campaign with me!
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #85 on: October 08, 2016, 06:44:40 AM »
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37593392

From the BBC, "Senior Republicans condemn Trump's lewd comments about women".

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/07/politics/donald-trump-women-vulgar/index.html

Trump apologizes. This is as close as I've seen Trump issuing a heartfelt apology, yet he cant apologize without making reference to Bill Clinton's indiscretions (which we've known for almost two decades). He should have left off all ref's to Bill and Hillary Clinton. It would have had a far more positive impact on his chances for election. He just isn't capable of doing that I guess and it's ultimately going to hurt him. His campaign has been and continues to be a "death from a thousand self-inflicted cuts".
« Last Edit: October 08, 2016, 06:58:52 AM by budmantis »
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #86 on: October 08, 2016, 01:59:48 PM »
Budmantis:

I would have much preferred that Trump never would have made it this far.  It was always clear to me he was a con.  If it walks like a rat....talks like a rat.....and acts like a rat.....it's usually a rat.

The debate on Sunday will be ugly.  Chuck Todd probably said it best:   "The only question now is whether or not Trump will set himself on fire Sunday."

I expect he will.  I expect Trump to destroy himself.  His ego is in full control.  There is no backing down now.  The only question is .....do the Democrats win enough seats to take the Senate....and can Hillary beat Trump by 10%?  Right now the polls are at 6% popular vote difference.
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #87 on: October 08, 2016, 02:42:38 PM »
One of my favorite heavy metal albums was Ozzy Osbourne's "Diary of a Madman". Trump's campaign has been just that. All someone has to do is replace Ozzy's face with Trump. The hair can stay pretty much the same!
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #88 on: October 08, 2016, 02:50:23 PM »
Kind of preaching to the choir here. I wouldn't write down Trump. His voters are not driven by the same logic presented here, but by some perverse anti-logic that has its own internal rules. I've seen it here in Israel unfortunately, the more the media expose the candidate's lies and attack him, sometimes the more he is strengthened come election day. Even worse, some of these are people who lie to pollsters on purpose or never respond to polls.

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #89 on: October 08, 2016, 03:02:12 PM »
I wouldn't write down Trump. His voters are not driven by the same logic presented here, but by some perverse anti-logic that has its own internal rules.


I agree with you regarding his hard core supporters.  He literally could shoot someone and they would be fine with it.

BUT....he will lose votes or push them to Hillary from the following:

1)  Moderate Republicans who were already on the fence
2)  Independents who hadn't made up their mind yet
3)  Gary Johnson supporters who are already being nudged to Hillary because Johnson has been having his own hellish couple of weeks.
4)  Women voters except for his hard core women supporters.

So he WILL continue to pay a price at the polls.  If he was running against ANYONE ELSE....he likely wouldn't get 30% of the vote.  But because there is a strong anti Clinton wing....he will likely get close to 40%.  But if he becomes TOTALLY UNHINGED on Sunday.....you could see his numbers in November go lower....

He is at 43% right now and heading south...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

« Last Edit: October 08, 2016, 08:06:50 PM by Buddy »
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #90 on: October 08, 2016, 08:13:01 PM »
So....Donald Trump is huddling with his "inner circle".  Who is in his inner circle?

1)  Rudy Gulliani who is on wife #3.....and cheated on his first two wives.
2)  Newt Gingrich who is on wife #3....and cheated on his first two wives, and took divorce papers into his then soon-to-be ex-wife when she was in the hospital for cancer.
3)  Roger Ailes....fired from FOX news for his sexual exploits with co-workers
4)  Chris Christy.....Governor of New Jersey....and one of the most aggressive personalities in politics.  Christy lied about "Bridgegate"....and both he and Democratic governor of New York Cuomo, could be charged in the future for lying about Bridgegate.

So if those are Trumps "confidants"....what could possibly go wrong...... :)
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #91 on: October 08, 2016, 09:47:35 PM »
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/08/politics/donald-trump-withdraw-republicans-race/index.html

As more Republicans are calling on him to step aside, Trump says "zero chance I'll quit". Article includes comments by Pence and Trump's wife.

I hope he doesn't quit, because he has a near zero chance to get elected president, whereas Mike Pence would have at least some chance, should he replace Trump at the top of the Republican ticket.
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #92 on: October 08, 2016, 09:52:44 PM »
So....Donald Trump is huddling with his "inner circle".  Who is in his inner circle?

1)  Rudy Gulliani who is on wife #3.....and cheated on his first two wives.
2)  Newt Gingrich who is on wife #3....and cheated on his first two wives, and took divorce papers into his then soon-to-be ex-wife when she was in the hospital for cancer.
3)  Roger Ailes....fired from FOX news for his sexual exploits with co-workers
4)  Chris Christy.....Governor of New Jersey....and one of the most aggressive personalities in politics.  Christy lied about "Bridgegate"....and both he and Democratic governor of New York Cuomo, could be charged in the future for lying about Bridgegate.

So if those are Trumps "confidants"....what could possibly go wrong...... :)

Trump's "gang" of four.
"To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence." Nietzsche

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #93 on: October 08, 2016, 10:39:35 PM »
http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-donald-trump-leaked-tape-2016-10

In the link above....Mark Cuban said:  "Bernie Madoff now has a better brand than Trump, and there's going to be a mass exodus."

A lot of folks out there doing some grave dancing....

OUCH.... ;)
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #94 on: October 09, 2016, 03:15:17 AM »
Paul Krugman believes that it would be "criminally irresponsible" for the two remaining presidential debate moderators to allow the candidates to avoid debating climate change:


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/krugman-climate-change-presidential-debate_us_57f7e704e4b068ecb5de12cd

Extract: "Paul Krugman is calling on moderators of the two remaining presidential debates to press the candidates on global warming.

In his Friday column in The New York Times, the Nobel prize-winning economist said climate change “should be a central issue in this campaign” and failing to push the issue would be “criminally irresponsible.” "
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #95 on: October 09, 2016, 03:33:51 AM »
Independent voters in the townhall.......I think the questions are coming from 40 "undecided" voters.  So I would not be surprised to hear a question or two on climate change/energy.

Debate 3......forget it.  Chris Wallace from FOX NON-SCIENCE channel.
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #96 on: October 09, 2016, 03:50:00 PM »
One or both of the following things likely to happen WITHIN the coming week or coming days:

1)  Mike Pence leaves the ticket...and leaves Donald hanging from a tree by his little balls...all by his lonesome.....and his little hands.
2)  Trump "negotiates" his exit from the race.  And yes...#1 and #2 are connected.

Pence has already "partially left".  But I expect Pence to tell Donald that he (Pence) will NOT support Trump, and will leave the ticket.  Donald then has two choices:

A)  Continue campaigning using his own funds...and without support (both financial AND manpower) of the RNC....(not likely)

B)  Trump negotiates a "payout" for his expenses incurred (yes....Donald would cheat on this too....and he would at least try to get much more payment than he has in services).....and drops out.

Either way....Trump is now toast.  Remember....financially, Trump has already begun to "feel the hurt" from customers leaving (decreased business at his properties and companies over the last year).  Now that his brand is being totally wrecked.....the speed at which they will leave his products/properties will increase.

"The King"....will be totally naked....for everyone to see.   That is what happens when the tide goes out.  Those not wearing a swimsuit are exposed (eeewwwww....sorry for the graphic ???).

Too bad "The Apprentice" out-takes haven't been seen yet.  They would absolutely annihilate Trump's kingdom.     
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #97 on: October 09, 2016, 04:02:28 PM »
This.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #98 on: October 09, 2016, 04:34:09 PM »
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/08/politics/donald-trump-video-women-remarks-republicans/index.html

CNN article, "Jumping off the Trump train", updated this morning. I'm actually starting to feel bad for these Republicans.
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #99 on: October 10, 2016, 03:51:13 AM »
Napoleon Bonaparte once said:  "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."

Barrack Obama used that bit of advice against Mitt Romney.....and I expect to see Hillary Clinton use that against Trump tonight.

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