Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Author Topic: The Nares Strait thread  (Read 273876 times)

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #100 on: August 11, 2013, 08:37:56 PM »
PII-2012 is still not moving:

Please click on the image to enlarge.
Have a ice day!

Wipneus

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3170
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #101 on: August 14, 2013, 09:56:09 AM »
PII-2012 has moved south, visible on the AMSR2 ice concentration map, and NASA Wordlview:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg12416.html#msg12416

Yuha

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 190
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #102 on: August 14, 2013, 12:25:02 PM »
PII-2012 has moved south, visible on the AMSR2 ice concentration map, and NASA Wordlview:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg12416.html#msg12416

It's actually moved north from where it was stuck.

It kept pivoting around one corner (see first two images attached) and
that corner is still stuck at the same place but the rest of it is now loose.

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3015
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #103 on: August 14, 2013, 12:50:03 PM »
That corner is still stuck at the same place but the rest of it is now loose.


Check an image from the 13th Yuha. The whole thing is now loose, and had moved south several km by then.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #104 on: August 14, 2013, 01:04:57 PM »
I would call it a sideway movement:

Have a ice day!

Wipneus

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3170
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #105 on: August 14, 2013, 01:17:49 PM »
Animation: movement from 12->13 August is by far the largest of the whole period and is south. Cannot see the little piece of resistance that refuses to move.

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3015
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #106 on: August 14, 2013, 02:42:24 PM »
Cannot see the little piece of resistance that refuses to move.

Me neither. Perhaps we can agree its centre of gravity ambled slowly northward before racing south again yesterday?

P.S. Actually I think I can see what Yuha was getting at now. On the 8th you can see "one corner" has split off from the rest of PII-2012. Although invisible through the clouds on the 13th, you can see on the 11th and 12th that the small corner gets left behind whilst the main bulk of PII-2012 sails off first north, then south.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2013, 05:32:56 PM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

danp

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 66
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #107 on: August 14, 2013, 05:18:32 PM »
It's actually moved quite a lot over the past week or so after being stuck for so long.  Here's an animation from day 216-224, with all clear-ish swaths picked out.  500m resolution, MODIS Terra:



And here's a sub-animation with 7 clear frames showing distinct positions of the island:



Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #108 on: August 14, 2013, 05:31:46 PM »
There seems to be a threshold somewhere at the bottom of the Strait which make the escape of PII-2012 difficult.
Have a ice day!

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1224
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #109 on: August 14, 2013, 07:31:51 PM »
I think this will make a difference in next year's melt pattern.
I had expected PII2012-A-1 to remain in place since it missed an opportunity to sail off with the extreme spring tide in June. When it missed the next spring tide I assumed my hunch had been correct. Oh well[size=78%]
The flat side of the ice island was the side that made up the calving front of Petermann the right of that was the portion that should have had the deepest keel (because of the direction of warm water entering the fjord). As it entered Kane Basin the deep keel ran aground and it was pivoting about that point as late as October 2012 after the sun had already set.
The full moon was on Aug. 6 with high spring tide at Cape Lawrence on the 10th. Winds from the south were building and maxed at Littleton Island at 32.2 m/s (116 Kph or 72 miles/hr.) on the 10th. The island may have begun it's northern movement prior to this.
I think that PII2012-A-1 had been stuck in some sort of dead end ravine and the wind, tide and surge floated the island and drove it north out of the low spot it had been trapped in. Kane's bathymetry shows deeper waters to the west of where the island had wintered and the ice island seems to have slipped through in that area.


Whatever fragments of PII2012-A-1 remain in 2014 will probably join their brothers grounded mainly off Baffin Island. They shouldn't present any problems to the melting of the Nares Ice Bridge in 2014 & I'd expect advection to begin in the first week of July as has been the case in most recent years. Understanding how much effect the blockage of Nares has had on this year's melt is way above my pay grade, but I wonder if this contributed to the dearth of advection through Fram Strait.


Terry[/size]

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #110 on: August 14, 2013, 07:50:49 PM »
It has been colder in the area this season, the 2 lakes (Romer Lakes) at the end of the Petermann Glacier,on the edge of GIS, did not really become ice free this season, as is normal in August, and the first snow is already seen all around the Petermann Area. This colder weather this year was another factor slowing the melt in Nares and several other places:

 
Have a ice day!

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3015
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #111 on: August 14, 2013, 09:39:11 PM »
The image is a bit hazy, but the ice island is still travelling south at a rate of knots:

 
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #112 on: August 14, 2013, 10:25:06 PM »
Jim,

Yes PII-2012 traveled south about 2 times its own length since August 13 2013 (yesterday).
Have a ice day!

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #113 on: August 14, 2013, 10:38:52 PM »
Here is an animation:
Have a ice day!

icebgone

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 58
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #114 on: August 15, 2013, 02:42:33 AM »
Terry, I think, like you, that the plug in Nares has helped save MYI.  It was aided and abetted by the cold weather and the earlier loss of oceanic and atmospheric heat during the SSW events.  The balance between oceanic influence and atmospheric wave configuration that results in + and - dipole constructs needs lots of research.  Unfortunately, we are probably going to see a reduction in satellite based climate capabilities over the next 4-5 years as old satellites cease operation and are not replaced due to cost constraints.

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1224
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #115 on: August 15, 2013, 03:41:53 AM »
ibg
I think you're right on so many counts.I hadn't meant to imply that the Nares Strait situation was the sole player, or even necessarily one of the large players in the muted melt we've seen. I do think that it has been part of the mix however. The colder temperatures Espen mentioned in Greenland and Ellesmere alone could have prolonged the ice bridge, but the ice island was the big player in that region.
I hope you are wrong about the satellite situation. If we're being driven off a cliff I'd prefer not to be wearing blinders.
Terry

Patrick

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 23
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #116 on: August 16, 2013, 01:02:10 PM »
Yesterday, browsing through the images at EOSDIS Worldview, I noticed that PII-2012 seemed to be on a collision course with a small island off the coast of Ellesmere Island. The latest swath image indicates that PII-2012 got turned by the current, but I'm still wondering if it will be enough to fully avoid Pim Island.

Image Source: http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2013228002500-2013228003000.250m.jpg

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #117 on: August 16, 2013, 01:38:40 PM »
Looks like PII-2012 passed that hurdle:
Have a ice day!

Patrick

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 23
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #118 on: August 16, 2013, 02:14:35 PM »

Phil.

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 169
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #119 on: August 18, 2013, 01:45:43 PM »

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #120 on: August 19, 2013, 01:41:01 PM »
Someone pulled the plug!

The sea ice from Lincoln Sea is now filling up Nares Strait:
Have a ice day!

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3015
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #121 on: August 19, 2013, 01:55:18 PM »
The sea ice from Lincoln Sea is now filling up Nares Strait:


As evidenced by the continuing motion of IMB 2013C, though it has slowed up over the last 24 hours or so:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #122 on: August 19, 2013, 01:59:31 PM »
Yes and it may end up in Lady Franklin Bay and Archer Fjord, or in a Cul-de-sac!
Have a ice day!

Andreas Muenchow

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 61
    • View Profile
    • IcySea
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #123 on: August 20, 2013, 11:01:17 PM »
It'll be past Hans Island and Kane Basin, but I have been wrong before ;-)

Thank you for posting this.
A Sailor in a Changing Climate
http://IcySeas.org

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #124 on: August 22, 2013, 02:50:36 PM »
Do we know where PII-2012 is now?
Have a ice day!

Wipneus

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3170
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #125 on: August 22, 2013, 03:51:32 PM »
I was wondering the same thing. On my AMSR2 maps, it disappears near the Greenland coast:


Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #126 on: August 22, 2013, 03:55:44 PM »
I believe it already passed Smith Sound, I may be wrong, it was at the mouth of the sound a week ago?
Have a ice day!

Yuha

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 190
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #127 on: August 22, 2013, 04:15:59 PM »
I believe it already passed Smith Sound, I may be wrong, it was at the mouth of the sound a week ago?


It was still in Smith Sound on the 19th. Just visible through clouds in the Aqua image:

http://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?map=-793996.065578,-1228434.188424,-384396.065578,-997010.188424&products=baselayers,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2013-08-19&switch=arctic

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1116
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #128 on: August 22, 2013, 05:16:44 PM »
PII-2012 is clearly visible at the top of DMI’s Qaanaaq TERRA August 17, 2013 image (snapshot attached).  I don't see it afterwards through the clouds.  (I don't have access to Worldview, alas, so don't know where it went two days later.)  DMI:  http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kane.uk.php.  (To select only TERRA images, click "TERRA" then "Hent" button in the lower right section of webpage.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #129 on: August 22, 2013, 07:35:32 PM »
PII-2012 showed up again today, but it is not obvious where it is exactly, but somewhere in the Smith Sound / Kane Basin area.
Have a ice day!

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1224
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #130 on: August 22, 2013, 08:12:54 PM »
It appears as having moved just over one length due north from it's position on the 17th. I believe it's still in very deep water with little chance of grounding unless the northern (eastside) current takes it back into the Kane Basin Gyre.
Since I think this is extremely unlikely & since this is still the melt season of 2013 it will probably happen.
Terry

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1224
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #131 on: August 22, 2013, 08:34:51 PM »
Below is the Bathymetry in the region



Thanks to Andreas's site from 2012.


Another image that may help is this from PII2010-B as it passed over Andreas's sensors in Nares Strait.



Bear in mind that the thin, forward end of PII2012-A-1 would have been mated to the thick trailing end of PII2010-B shown above and the deepest keel probably at or near the north west corner when it was part of the glacier because of the coriolis effect within the Fjord.
The coriolis effect is also what forces the northward stream in Nares Strait to the eastern (Greenland) side.
Terry

Phil.

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 169
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #132 on: August 23, 2013, 05:24:32 AM »
PII-2012 showed up again today, but it is not obvious where it is exactly, but somewhere in the Smith Sound / Kane Basin area.


Clear shot of it in Smith Sound today:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2013234211500-2013234212000.250m.jpg

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #133 on: August 23, 2013, 08:53:41 AM »
It is strange bird this PII-2012, it is like a condor chick who dont want to leave the nest.
Have a ice day!

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #134 on: August 23, 2013, 09:27:06 AM »
Here is she is:
Have a ice day!

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1116
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #135 on: August 23, 2013, 09:04:29 PM »
PII-2012 appears to be a calf searching for her mother. Baffin Bay must have frightened her, it being so awfully big.   :P
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Phil.

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 169
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #136 on: August 24, 2013, 03:15:54 AM »
Here is she is:

Looking at today's MODIS she appears to be drifting slightly north at present.

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #137 on: August 27, 2013, 07:15:52 PM »
P2 is still in a irresolute mood:
Have a ice day!

Phil.

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 169
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #138 on: August 27, 2013, 11:39:55 PM »
Moving south again after wandering around in an eddy for a few days.

Wipneus

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3170
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #139 on: August 29, 2013, 08:38:14 AM »
PII-2012 is making good speed, and is now further than ever before.


Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #140 on: August 29, 2013, 06:03:52 PM »
PII-2012 still hanging around in Smith Sound:
Have a ice day!

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1224
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #141 on: August 29, 2013, 07:28:15 PM »
PII-2012-A-1 should be in deep waters if it can stay away from the narrow shoal water very close to Ellesmere Island. As it's presently positioned the thickest keel is the side closest to Ellesmere. The bottom drops away quite rapidly on the western shore in this area but it's not impossible that the very deep keel could snag on an unmapped protrusion.
I'd hate to find our boy aiding in maintaining another ice bridge after it threaded itself through Kane Basin this summer.



It's journey south will be fun to trace next year. I hope someone either repairs or replaces the tracking device on it as I think it will be the biggest thing to pass through Baffin Bay in a very long time. The remnants of PII-2010 attracted lots of attention when it finally grounded off Newfoundland & this one is much larger by volume and appears to be staying more or less intact.
If it should end up threatening the Hibernia Oil Platform things could get very interesting.


Dr.Munchow has an interesting article that traced PII-2012- A & PII-2010-B's journey's in 2011 at:
http://icyseas.org/2012/01/06/petermann-ice-island-2010-through-2011-part/
from which I pilfered the following graphic showing the track of PII-2010-A and a much smaller ice island from 2008.

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #142 on: August 30, 2013, 02:42:12 PM »
PII-2012 is on a test flight into Baffin Bay, whether it return to Kane remains to be seen. It is now positioned between Baird Inlet and Cadogan Inlet of Gale Point ,Ellesmere Island.
Have a ice day!

Laurent

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2517
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #143 on: August 30, 2013, 02:53:12 PM »
It seems there is 2 opposite flow, one going north and one south !? nearly as equal in strengh ?

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1116
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #144 on: August 30, 2013, 04:25:15 PM »
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/jmr/jmr/2008/00000066/00000006/art00005 indicates a strong (95%) southerly current in Nares Strait and a minor (5%) northerly current on the Greenland side.   In previous years, I "watched" floes stuck in an anticlockwize gyre in Kane Basin.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #145 on: August 30, 2013, 07:11:04 PM »
PII-2012 still moving south:
Have a ice day!

Espen

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2881
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #146 on: August 30, 2013, 11:00:15 PM »
Terry, take good care of her she is in Canadian water now! ;)
Have a ice day!

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1224
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #147 on: August 31, 2013, 07:55:47 AM »
Espen
Next stop the Hibernia Oil Platform (by next year?)
Terry

Phil.

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 169
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #148 on: August 31, 2013, 03:00:04 PM »

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1224
    • View Profile
Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Reply #149 on: September 05, 2013, 04:02:59 AM »
There is a French sailing yacht "Vagabond" in Kane Basin that probably was in visual contact with PII-2012-A-1 a few days ago. It's callsign is FLAO and is being tracked by Sailwx and Meteo France at
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=FLAO
and
http://www.meteo2.shom.fr/cgi-bin/meteo/display_vos_ext.cgi?callchx=FLAO


Someone able to understand French might be able to glean some interesting data if they could somehow make contact with the ship or find reports that they've been transmitting. I found it interesting that they report temperatures as high as 3.5C on the 3d, but if they have photos or first hand accounts of the ice island these might be of great interest to our community.
I apologize for not taking this any further but I know my limits.
Terry


Edit - Updated - Their Log Book is at
http://www.vagabond.fr/news.en
but hasn't been updated since 8/25. This probably should be on a different thread.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2013, 04:25:10 AM by TerryM »