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Archimid

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Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: November 22, 2016, 06:39:20 PM »
I started a thread to document the changes across the biosphere.



Climate change affecting all life on Earth

http://earthsky.org/earth/climate-change-impact-genes-life-on-earth-species


Abstract:
In more scientific parlance, we found in a paper published in Science that genes, species and ecosystems now show clear signs of impact. These responses to climate change include species’ genome (genetics), their shapes, colors and sizes (morphology), their abundance, where they live and how they interact with each other (distribution). The influence of climate change can now be detected on the smallest, most cryptic processes all the way up to entire communities and ecosystems.


The published paper: http://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6313/aaf7671
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John Batteen

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2016, 01:44:36 AM »
I don't have any scientific studies to back this up, but in northeastern South Dakota where I was born and have recently returned to, there are definite changes in plant life.  Used to be no trees could reproduce on their own, except for the occasional cottonwood, our only native tree.  You could plant trees but they wouldn't reproduce.  The climate was too harsh and unforgiving.  Too windy, too dry.  Seedlings couldn't make it.  But now I see all kinds of baby and juvenile trees around, not far from their parents that people planted.  It's incredible.  In the mid 90s it got wetter here and it's stayed wetter, other than a few droughts.  There's a lot more lakes now than there used to be too.  They all flooded in 95 or 96 maybe and have stayed lake ever since.

Archimid

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2016, 01:43:51 PM »
Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change

http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/283/1843/20162104

Abstract:Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change.
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TerryM

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2016, 08:37:33 PM »
I don't have any scientific studies to back this up, but in northeastern South Dakota where I was born and have recently returned to, there are definite changes in plant life.  Used to be no trees could reproduce on their own, except for the occasional cottonwood, our only native tree.  You could plant trees but they wouldn't reproduce.  The climate was too harsh and unforgiving.  Too windy, too dry.  Seedlings couldn't make it.  But now I see all kinds of baby and juvenile trees around, not far from their parents that people planted.  It's incredible.  In the mid 90s it got wetter here and it's stayed wetter, other than a few droughts.  There's a lot more lakes now than there used to be too.  They all flooded in 95 or 96 maybe and have stayed lake ever since.


John


I too returned to the place of my birth after many years away. The locals had in many instances had not noticed the slow transformation of their climate, but to someone returning after a long absence the changes were glaringly obvious.


Where you noted a difference in lakes and trees, I noted that my local river no longer freezes each year, where you noted additional lakes, I noted that tornadoes moved into my area and Halloween costumes no longer require parkas underneath.


I wonder if old newspaper photos or articles describing things as they once were might jog the memories of those who are slowly being brought to a boil.


Terry

charles_oil

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2016, 10:07:00 PM »
Lightweight version of the paper mentioned above

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-38069358

Climate changing 'too fast' for species
By Helen Briggs

Many species will not be able to adapt fast enough to survive climate change, say scientists.
A study of more than 50 plants and animals suggests their ability to adapt to changes in rainfall and temperature will be vastly outpaced by future climate change.
Amphibians, reptiles and plants are particularly vulnerable, according to US researchers.
And tropical species are at higher risk than those in temperate zones.
Some animals might be able to move geographically to cope with rising temperatures, but others live in isolated areas where they cannot move, such as in nature reserves or on mountains or islands.
Ecologists analysed how quickly species had changed their climatic niches (the conditions where they can survive) over time, and how these rates compared with that of global warming.
....... continues....

Bruce Steele

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2016, 11:16:42 PM »
Terry, I spent a few years in England when I was young. We lived in a town called Thorpness and there was a small lake ( called a Mirror in G.B. )  that froze during winters. I remember people ice skating so the ice was fairly thick.  I looked for ice skating pictures in England on the web and couldn't find any. As it turns out the winters aren't cold enough to freeze small lakes any more. I recently found a picture of the frozen mirror and it is dated 1957.
 Freeze has a big impact on various insect populations. Gardening in a year that didn't freeze around here means insect problems get a head start and snails are also a bigger problem .  It is very hard for me to see any big changes here in Southern Calif.  It still freezes on occasion , there have been droughts before, but maybe as you point out it is difficult to spot incremental change in your own backyard.
 
 

Bruce Steele

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2016, 11:50:35 PM »
Please excuse the double post but the changes I see on land are much different than the changes I have seen in the ocean.  Each successive strong El Niño 1982-83 , 1997-98 and  2015-16  have
delivered larger and larger disease events for sea life in local waters.
 Domoic acid events seem to reoccur more often and the Oregon coast is currently seeing Dungeness crab closures.
 The problem in the ocean is the baseline of observation is short relative to land based observations.
Change is a bit of a constant at sea and separating out climate change from background noise is difficult. We are still looking for biological proxies for ocean acidification , Pteropods and Pacific Oysters
are the first two species that show a clear biological responses at current pH deviations here in the Calif. current ecosystem but there are many more species that will become involved as acidification proceeds.



 

charles_oil

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2016, 12:49:58 AM »
Like Bruce I recall several cold winters in late 60's early 70's in southern England (Surrey) - skating on local ponds - even playing hockey & once having a car on one was memorable (albeit dangerous).  I doubt that's ever possible now.

Archimid

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2016, 03:01:23 AM »
I live in the tropics, so climate change is a little different for me. The most obvious change is sea level rise. During high tides the waves are breaking so high that coastal erosion is becoming a real issue. IT is visible too. Where I take morning walks is right by the ocean. Waves are now breaking so high that they are breaking over the sea wall and splashing the road and sidewalk.  I've seen it happen before, but only during hurricanes or storms. Now it happens on perfectly sunny days.

Here is what I thought it was an interesting video lecture:


The Greening of the Arctic
https://youtu.be/k3KNxXGB-b0


Abstract:
Global climate change has been identified as a serious threat with profound impacts in tundra ecosystems.

The tundra biome is responding more rapidly to climate change than any other biome on the planet, according to recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Recent evidence indicates that widespread expansion of shrubs and other vegetation is taking place around the tundra biome - known as the greening of the Arctic.

Climate change in the Arctic is projected to continue to be rapid, with 2 to 10°C warming over the next 100 years. Dramatic changes to tundra vegetation can change carbon storage, reflectance of the tundra surface and permafrost thaw, creating feedbacks that could accelerate global climate change. A significant unknown however, is at what rate vegetation change will continue to respond to the warming climate and to what extent other non-climatic factors may limit future vegetation change.

I will present the different lines of evidence for tundra vegetation change to climate warming from around the tundra biome including ecological monitoring, experiments, and imagery collected using drones - remotely piloted aircraft systems from my research group’s focal research site Qikiqtaruk - Herschel Island in the Canadian Arctic. I will illustrate how large-scale experiments using things as simple as tea bags, are helping us to project the influence of tundra vegetation change on soil decomposition over time. Finally, I will discuss how we can integrate these different lines of evidence to better project future vegetation change and the resulting impacts of this change across the tundra biome.
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TerryM

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2016, 09:26:23 PM »
Bruce
You brought back happy memories of crabbing every Saturday at Coos Bay back in the 70's. 2 adults + 3 children allowed us 50 Dungeness crabs per trip. I'd stack the motorhome's reefer and be a huge hit on my bi-weekly trips back to Southern Cal.


Are the upwelling regions, (Monterey Bay) being hit hard by acidification or does the incoming deep water alleviate the problem?


Terry

Avalonian

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2016, 12:27:45 PM »
Greetings all! I've been lurking for over a year, and so I feel I kind-of know you good folks already. Actually, that's a bit creepy, so I'll stop there; I'm not a stalker, honest.  :o

I can't contribute much to the meteorological and oceanographic discussions (although I wish I could; but I know when I'm out of my depth!), but I'm a palaeontologist and entomologist with a hand in local community sustainability, so hopefully can add some useful stuff on those lines. This was the thread that finally got me registered.  :)

One thing I've been seeing in the insect life of the UK in recent years is a clear northwards shift in populations. Species are settling in the UK when they only used to be occasional migrants, and southern species are turning up much further north than ever before. In my little patch of mid Wales, there are quite a few species that have suddenly made it home, with no previous records this side of the border. When you see them, they're in sheltered sunny spots that make the most of the weather, but that's just the stop-gap; once they have a foothold, they're only likely to expand.

What does this mean for biodiversity, though..? Well, in the short term it's likely to carry on going up, as more incomers arrive and settle, without driving out the ones at the southern end of their range. After all, biodiversity in general decreases northwards, and the UK is constantly being fed by warmth-loving species from the continent. These species generally don't cause any chaos, either; there are the horror stories like the Harlequin Ladybird ("Eats all the natives!"), but these also reach their own balance over time ("Actually, it only nibbles some of them, and none look to be heading for extinction as a result..."). No, what worries me more is changes in abundance, and boom-and-bust cycles.

Living in the middle of sheep-wreck (the desert of the overgrazed grassland), you get to see how sensitive disturbed ecosystems are too a final push. Stress the community by long-term, intensive grazing, and you'll knock out most of the species locally. A few generalists (or specialists, even) will cope, and then thrive through the lack of competition. They can then form a massive food source for, say, spiders, which under the right conditions will mushroom (unlike mushrooms, alas). The system flips off the deep end when you get an extra push from, say, a mild winter.

Mild winters fail to kill off the predators. These then form ravening hordes that devour as many eggs and spring larvae as they can find, before having to resort to each other. The caterpillar eradication starves the bird population, which should be also feeding on the spiders, and so on. There are a lot of buffers in these systems, and a lot of potential ways that imbalances get evened out over the space of a few years. There are also loads of unexplained patterns in known insect abundance and distribution; why are some species declining, and others thriving? Sometimes, we just have no idea.

What worries me in relation to biodiversity loss at the moment is the wild weather swings; the buffers can only take so much buffeting. Most species aren't going to be actually wiped out for some considerable time, in my opinion, but the thing to watch for is ecosystems going chaotic - apparently random blooms of unusual species, and that sort of thing. They've always happened, given random seasonal anomalies, but of course we're now likely to see a lot more of them...

Archimid

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #11 on: December 07, 2016, 04:11:56 PM »
Ice age vertebrates had mixed responses to climate change

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/12/161206142640.htm

Summary:
New research examines how vertebrate species in the eastern United States ranging from snakes to mammals to birds responded to climate change over the last 500,000 years. The study reveals that contrary to expectation, the massive glaciers that expanded and contracted across the region affected animal populations in different ways at different times. The analysis provides a window into how animals might react to any kind of climate change, whether glacial cycles or global warming.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #12 on: December 08, 2016, 01:49:08 PM »
The first linked article is entitled: "The debate is over: Earth's sixth great extinction has arrived"; and I note that the loss of biodiversity is more than just a numbers game, as besides the moral issues, it has many real consequences on both humanity and on Earth Systems:


http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2988315/the_debate_is_over_earths_sixth_great_extinction_has_arrived.html

Extract: "Limiting climate change is just the start of what we need to do to forestall a runaway cascade of species extinctions, write Bill Laurance & Paul Ehrlich. We must also reverse the destruction and fragmentation of key wildlife habitats, constrain our over-consumption of natural resources, stabilise human numbers - and elect leaders determined to prioritise these issues.

No matter how you measure it, a mass extinction has arrived. A 2015 study that one of us (Ehrlich) coauthored used conservative assumptions to estimate the natural, or background rate of species extinctions for various groups of vertebrates. The study then compared these background rates to the pace of species losses since the beginning of the 20th century.
Even assuming conservatively high background rates, species have been disappearing far faster than before. Since 1900, reptiles are vanishing 24 times faster, birds 34 times faster, mammals and fishes about 55 times faster, and amphibians 100 times faster than they have in the past.
For all vertebrate groups together, the average rate of species loss is 53 times higher than the background rate."

&
The second linked article is entitled: "Why Should Humans Care if We're Entering the Sixth Mass Extinction?"; which indicates that the current Sixth Extinction event is worse than prior such mass extinction events:



http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/why-should-humans-care-if-were-sixth-mass-extinction-180961168/


Extract: "Sometime in the near geological future, the landscape of life on earth as we know it will be transformed. It’s a mass extinction, and it’s only happened five times before in Earth’s history. There have been severe ice ages, perplexing losses of oxygen from our oceans, massive volcanic eruptions, meteor impacts. And now, we’re on the precipice of a sixth mass extinction ... and it’s nothing like our planet has ever seen before."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #13 on: December 08, 2016, 01:52:25 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Giraffes in process of 'silent extinction,' wildlife group says".  It is a very sad statement that modern society can accept such occurrences as the "new normal" with the same ease that world leaders can cotton to Donald Trump:


http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/08/world/iucn-red-list-giraffe-endangered-trnd/index.html


Extract: "Africa's wild giraffe population has plunged dramatically and the world's tallest animals are in the process of a "silent extinction," a conservation group has reported.

Giraffe populations have fallen by up to 40% over the last 30 years, the International Union for Conservation of Nature says in the latest edition of its "Red List" of endangered species.

The gentle giants' numbers have dipped from as many as 163,000 in 1985 to just over 97,000 last year, according to the report."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #14 on: December 08, 2016, 02:13:38 PM »
The linked reference presents evidence that ocean acidification will have a cascading effect w.r.t. the loss of biodiversity in the ocean:

Jennifer M. Sunday, et. al. (2016), "Ocean acidification can mediate biodiversity shifts by changing biogenic habitat", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3161


http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3161.html

Abstract: "The effects of ocean acidification (OA) on the structure and complexity of coastal marine biogenic habitat have been broadly overlooked. Here we explore how declining pH and carbonate saturation may affect the structural complexity of four major biogenic habitats. Our analyses predict that indirect effects driven by OA on habitat-forming organisms could lead to lower species diversity in coral reefs, mussel beds and some macroalgal habitats, but increases in seagrass and other macroalgal habitats. Available in situ data support the prediction of decreased biodiversity in coral reefs, but not the prediction of seagrass bed gains. Thus, OA-driven habitat loss may exacerbate the direct negative effects of OA on coastal biodiversity; however, we lack evidence of the predicted biodiversity increase in systems where habitat-forming species could benefit from acidification. Overall, a combination of direct effects and community-mediated indirect effects will drive changes in the extent and structural complexity of biogenic habitat, which will have important ecosystem effects."


See also the associated article entitled: "Ocean Acidification May Cause Cascading Loss Of Biodiversity In Some Marine Habitats, Research Finds".

http://planetsave.com/2016/12/07/ocean-acidification-may-cause-cascading-loss-biodiversity-marine-habitats-research-finds/

Extract: "The ocean acidification that’s now occurring, as a result of increasing anthropogenic levels of carbon dioxide emissions, will led to cascading losses of biodiversity in many marine habitats and ecosystems, according to new research from the University of British Columbia and its partners."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

nicibiene

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #15 on: December 09, 2016, 12:09:33 PM »
Hi, I´m pretty new here-just found here after I searched for new material about climate change.

I´m pretty scared by all the datas that I found within some days, that are not mentioned in the normal medias.

I knew about the coherences from Tim Flannerys book, but normally you don´t hear that much about the fastness of changes.

There are some thoughts from my point of view:

If the atmosphere warms up-the ocean warms up. More warm water is transported
northwards, is melting the ice. Ice is nice. Melting ice is giving up energy. Melting ice cools the water. More cold water is transported by the circles of the ocean southwards.

The warm water at the pole region is melting methanhydrates. In the ocean
they are left into the atmosphere, but also eaten in the water, by metane eating bacterias. There are new oases on the ocean ground-methane oases:

http://worldoceanreview.com/bakterien-verarbeiten-methan/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3JQ9a3apc8

In the upper level of the polar water methane eating bacterias are using O2, producing CO2 and sour, cold water, in the lower anaerobican zone they are producing "FINE" H2S. All in one the polar water is getting more sour, less O2, polluted by H2S and colder by the melting ice. The amount of colder water that goes down with the gulfstream e.g. increases.

Is is coming up in the south-it is obviously at the eathschoolmap that there are colder regions where some circulations work. Where the water is warm, it has less oxygen. And so combines low oxygen warm water with low oxygen, more acid cold water from north and the life dies. There are misterious masses of fishes-deathzones.

Dying life in warm water means again - right: if there is low oxygen in that warm water the organic material turns into methane. And in warm water that goes straight into the atmosphere.

Combined with the potential of methane from the exploding plumes in russian permafrost and the thawing organic material there we get our straight ticket to hell, spiced with some H2S-as it belongs to hell. a sour ocean, dying life and new material for a new circle of life.

and as I found also the natural gas-maybe also the methanhydrates (?) contain H2S
https://www.earthworksaction.org/issues/detail/hydrogen_sulfide#.WEqUO1wYF9U
I just took a look to the satelite pictures regarding SO2-Particles-the highest concentrations I found is where nobody lives-near the Yamal-hole. (at Google earth you find an impressive number of that waterfilled holes in the ground)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=so2smass/orthographic=-243.86,73.67,499/loc=104.140,36.671

And that fish is an excelent Source for H2S. Lot of died dishes will turn to H2S. Great-really http://www.schwefelwasserstoff.de/ursachen-und-herkunft-von-h2s/ursachen/ and fish is extremely sensitive for H2S. Really a great circle of death.

And as I asumed-the S2 circle must be a circle like everything on earth. I wondered from where that methane eating bacterias could take their SO42- to live  http://www.h-2-s.de/entschwefelung/umsonst-ist-der-tod/

H2S reacts with O2 to water and S. And S with water and O2 (again) gives H2SO4. And solving that in water will be exotherm-right? Warmth, lower oxygene, and sour ocean. Seams to be the final ticket back in earths history. 

Maybe we should built a entire tent about our house to survive that...
Correct me, if I´m wrong. PLEASE!!!
« Last Edit: December 09, 2016, 03:30:57 PM by nicibiene »
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” –“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” Albert Einstein

SteveMDFP

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #16 on: December 09, 2016, 05:44:58 PM »
I think some small points could be quibbled with, but I think I agree with the overall view of how many oceans could gradually become toxic messes.

The sulfate ion is quite plentiful indeed in seawater, inexhaustible, really:
http://oceanplasma.org/documents/chemistry.html

Methane in solution + sulfate ion, in the presence of specific anaerobic bacteria yields toxic H2S.  I believe this only happens in hypoxic waters. 

But hypoxia in deep waters is steadily increasing.  Once the arctic is ice-free year round, and surface waters stop being delivered to the depths, delivery of oxygen to deep waters may essentially stop.  The result is "Canfield ocean":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canfield_ocean

It will perhaps take a century or two to get there.  Longer, I imagine, for the southern hemisphere.  The clock is ticking.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #17 on: December 09, 2016, 07:28:26 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "UN to extend freeze on climate change geoengineering", and it indicates that if/when mankind were to use large-scale geoengineering there could be a significant associate loss in biodiversity:

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/12/07/un-to-extend-freeze-on-climate-change-geoengineering/

Extract: "Draft documents suggest countries will agree to further ban on large-scale climate techno-fixes, warning risks of damage to biodiversity outweigh potential benefits"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #18 on: December 09, 2016, 07:40:41 PM »
The first linked article is entitled: "Nations need to get serious about biodiversity loss or risk missing global targets"; and it implies that nations are not really serious about maintaining biodiversity.

http://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?286654/Nations-need-to-get-serious-about-biodiversity-loss-or-risk-missing-global-targets

Extract: "“Countries are missing the mark on the Aichi targets,” said Deon Nel, Global Conservation Director of WWF International, “The world has an agreement and a collective plan on how to reverse biodiversity loss, but this has not yet been translated into the right level of ambition and commitment by individual countries.”
 
Ambition to support nature is still woefully low and biodiversity conservation remains a fringe issue in national economic planning. Countries, for the most part, remain content with exploiting the environment for short-term economic solutions, while eroding its longer-term potential to sustainably provide food, employment and support economic and human development."

&
The second linked article is entitled: "Biodiversity betrayal as nations fail miserably on conservation".

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2115585-biodiversity-betrayal-as-nations-fail-miserably-on-conservation/

Extract: Almost everyone is bottom of the class. That’s the best that can be said for countries that signed up to an ambitious plan in 2010 to save the world’s dwindling biodiversity.

The Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 set internationally agreed conservation targets known as the Aichi biodiversity targets, but rich nations in particular seem to be failing miserably.

So said five major conservation charities ahead of the 13th meeting of the Convention on Biological Diversity in Cancun, Mexico, this week."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #19 on: December 10, 2016, 05:21:41 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Surprising Number of Species Going Extinct in Their Usual Homes, Study Says".  How long will it be before humans are added to this list?

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09122016/species-extinction-climate-change

Extract: "Hundreds of species around the world—plants, animals, marine life—are experiencing local extinctions due to climate change, according to a new study. Researchers say it's likely to be just the beginning.

As the climate warms, these species, which range from types of chipmunks to grasses to sea snails, are no longer showing up in the places they used to call home. The phenomenon isn't isolated to one particular geographical region or temperature zone, the study found."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

pikaia

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #20 on: December 11, 2016, 12:29:05 AM »
there was a small lake ( called a Mirror in G.B. )
The word is Mere.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #21 on: December 11, 2016, 01:30:49 AM »
Pikaia, I was reading about Thorpness the other day and realized my error. I guess it can also be called a meare. I was just a kid and the word sounded like mirror to me. 

Archimid

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #22 on: January 01, 2017, 03:46:05 PM »
Bacteria, Methane, and Other Dangers Within Siberia’s Melting Permafrost

https://www.wired.com/2016/12/global-warming-beneath-permafrost/


I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Avalonian

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #23 on: February 10, 2017, 01:26:12 PM »
Well, it's not all bad news... if you're a sponge.

Thought some of you might be interested in a paper I've just had published, showing that sponges completely dominated at least some parts of the offshore sea floor following the climate-driven end-Ordovician extinction.

http://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822%2816%2931543-3

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-02/caos-ftr020617.php

sidd

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #24 on: February 10, 2017, 11:06:11 PM »
Amazing seeing such well preserved sponges. I had also not been aware of sponge proliferation in other extinction events. Thanx

sidd

Avalonian

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #25 on: February 10, 2017, 11:56:50 PM »
Amazing seeing such well preserved sponges. I had also not been aware of sponge proliferation in other extinction events. Thanx

sidd

It's astonishing what can get preserved in some of these deposits, sidd... and sponges at least have a skeleton of sorts (well, most of them). The main problem is too few people studying them, so most of their record is overlooked.

This does seem to be a real pattern, though, after mass extinctions - I'm kind-of hoping to see a flurry of similar reports over the next few years, once people have twigged about how they can influence benthic communities. At that point we might start to be able to get to the bottom of what really happens in post-crisis ecosystems...

AbruptSLR

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #26 on: February 13, 2017, 07:07:03 PM »
The linked article is entitled: " Impact of climate change on mammals and birds 'greatly under-estimated'".

https://phys.org/news/2017-02-impact-climate-mammals-birds-greatly.html

Extract: "Associate Professor James Watson of UQ's School of Earth and Environmental Sciences and the Wildlife Conservation Society said alarmingly, the team of international researchers found evidence of observed responses to recent climate changes in almost 700 birds and mammal species.

"There has been a massive under-reporting of these impacts," he said."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #27 on: February 14, 2017, 03:52:14 PM »
The linked article indicates that Florida's coastal everglades are near unhealthy 'tipping points'.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article132530084.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #28 on: February 16, 2017, 08:41:59 PM »
The linked reference projects up to a 7% decline in oceanic dissolved oxygen by 2100 due to climate change; which would have detrimental impacts on marine life.

Sunke Schmidtko, Lothar Stramma & Martin Visbeck (16 February 2017), "Decline in global oceanic oxygen content during the past five decades", Nature, Volume: 542, Pages: 335–339, doi:10.1038/nature21399

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v542/n7641/full/nature21399.html

Abstract: "Ocean models predict a decline in the dissolved oxygen inventory of the global ocean of one to seven per cent by the year 2100, caused by a combination of a warming-induced decline in oxygen solubility and reduced ventilation of the deep ocean. It is thought that such a decline in the oceanic oxygen content could affect ocean nutrient cycles and the marine habitat, with potentially detrimental consequences for fisheries and coastal economies. Regional observational data indicate a continuous decrease in oceanic dissolved oxygen concentrations in most regions of the global ocean, with an increase reported in a few limited areas, varying by study. Prior work attempting to resolve variations in dissolved oxygen concentrations at the global scale reported a global oxygen loss of 550 ± 130 teramoles (1012 mol) per decade between 100 and 1,000 metres depth based on a comparison of data from the 1970s and 1990s. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the entire ocean oxygen inventory by analysing dissolved oxygen and supporting data for the complete oceanic water column over the past 50 years. We find that the global oceanic oxygen content of 227.4 ± 1.1 petamoles (1015 mol) has decreased by more than two per cent (4.8 ± 2.1 petamoles) since 1960, with large variations in oxygen loss in different ocean basins and at different depths. We suggest that changes in the upper water column are mostly due to a warming-induced decrease in solubility and biological consumption. Changes in the deeper ocean may have their origin in basin-scale multi-decadal variability, oceanic overturning slow-down and a potential increase in biological consumption."

See also:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/16/world/ocean-oxygen-nature/

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #29 on: February 26, 2017, 09:38:22 PM »
Cherry Blossom Trees are Blooming in D.C. Weeks Earlier Than Usual
D.C.’s famous Yoshino cherry trees are already beginning to bloom, according to local reports, thanks to steadily rising temperatures throughout February. In the last week alone, daytime temperatures have exceeded 80 degrees Fahrenheit—the historical average is 48 to 50 degrees.

Local radio station 97.1 WASH-FM is forecasting the peak bloom could arrive as early as March 5. That’s 10 days earlier than the earliest peak bloom in recorded history: March 15, 1990.

That could be bad news for the National Cherry Blossom Festival, which is scheduled to take place from March 20 until April 16, 2017....
http://www.travelandleisure.com/trip-ideas/nature-travel/washington-dc-cherry-blossoms-bloom
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TerryM

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #30 on: February 26, 2017, 09:54:53 PM »

Sigm

A few years back there was a very early bloom in the apple orchards here about, followed by a snap freeze that destroyed the crop.
Hope no huge swings occur this year.


Terry

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #31 on: February 26, 2017, 10:30:54 PM »
Sigm and Terry, Some of the stone fruit are just starting to bloom but even here in Southern Calif. I haven't seen any bloom on the three Blenheim Apricot trees I have.

TerryM

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #32 on: February 27, 2017, 01:44:25 AM »
Snow again here just north of Lake Erie.
I don't think we had a week go by where the grass wasn't showing this year.


When I left this region for warmer climes in the early 60's our river froze up each year and they had a huge pool for whomever came closest to guessing the moment that the ice would break. AFAIK this tradition dated to before the first bridge being built in the early 1800's as at that time it noted the end of easy passage across the frozen river.


Since returning in 2004 the river has only frozen on 3 years, most recently in 2015 when the wife and I celebrated by making the crossing with snowshoes, (spreads the weight over a broader area).


The palm trees at Port Dover and Turkey Point also indicate huge changes since my youth.
We've a number of apple trees at our entrance way - I'll let you know when they come in.


Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #33 on: March 09, 2017, 04:52:36 PM »
he linked article is entitled: "Half of world’s ocean to face multiple ‘climate stressors’ by 2030, study warns".  We are greedily robbing the oceans to feed human addictions.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/half-of-worlds-ocean-to-face-multiple-climate-stressorsby-2030-study-warns

Extract: "Climate change is altering the world’s watery expanses in a number of ways, with serious knock-on effects for the ocean’s plants and animals, according to new research.
The study finds that with just 15 more years of current emissions, over half of the world’s ocean will be exposed to more than one source of stress, affecting everything from the tiniest plants to the mightiest whales. By 2050, that figure rises to around 86% of the ocean, say the authors."

See the associated reference at:

http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14682


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DrTskoul

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #34 on: March 10, 2017, 12:49:38 PM »
Soils could release much more carbon than expected as climate warms

...Their findings are based on a field experiment that, for the first time, explored what happens to organic carbon trapped in soil when all soil layers are warmed, which in this case extend to a depth of 100 centimeters. The scientists discovered that warming both the surface and deeper soil layers at three experimental plots increased the plots' annual release of CO2 by 34 to 37 percent over non-warmed soil. Much of the CO2 originated from deeper layers, indicating that deeper stores of carbon are more sensitive to warming than previously thought....

More information: "Getting to the Bottom of Soil's Role in Releasing Carbon; It Could Be Greater than Thought," Science (2017). DOI: 10.1126/science.aal1319
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nicibiene

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #35 on: March 10, 2017, 02:43:56 PM »
... The scientists discovered that warming both the surface and deeper soil layers at three experimental plots increased the plots' annual release of CO2 by 34 to 37 percent over non-warmed soil. ....

"nice" and I assume that 34% more decay of organic material is NOT included in climate models!? Just like the thawing permafrost soils organic material?  :o Normally I only have to take a look at the idea of the thermo composter in my garden?! Faster decay caused by warmer temperatures...
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Archimid

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #36 on: March 10, 2017, 07:59:29 PM »
A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep41489

Abstract:
The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings are associated with a westward cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration across the Amazon. We investigate impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic. Our results indicate the existence of a tipping point. In our model setup, crossing the tipping point causes precipitation reductions of up to 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon and regions further downstream. The responsible mechanism is the breakdown of the aforementioned feedback, which occurs when deforestation reduces transpiration to a point where the available atmospheric moisture does not suffice anymore to release the latent heat needed to maintain the feedback.
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magnamentis

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #37 on: March 10, 2017, 09:44:20 PM »
A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep41489

Abstract:
The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings are associated with a westward cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration across the Amazon. We investigate impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic. Our results indicate the existence of a tipping point. In our model setup, crossing the tipping point causes precipitation reductions of up to 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon and regions further downstream. The responsible mechanism is the breakdown of the aforementioned feedback, which occurs when deforestation reduces transpiration to a point where the available atmospheric moisture does not suffice anymore to release the latent heat needed to maintain the feedback.



a very important point here IMO, i believe that deforestation, hence a reduction in CO2 "consuming" forest, adds a significant amount to the raising CO2 level while the general public almost exclusively speaks and thinks in terms of CO2 release.

the mention of deforestation's impact is neglect and should be increased throughout the media.
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nicibiene

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #38 on: March 11, 2017, 10:46:00 AM »
And as I personally already thought about the idea of a biomass powered compost heating...when biomass decays the microbes emit a lot of energy...heat. The effect is used in high beds. I ask myself if that could also cause the heating up of Northern permafrost hemispheres? An additional ground heating? And is that energy emission payed attention to?

I'm afraid not. Too hard to calculate..not man made...not to influence at all.  :-X

https://offgridworld.com/the-power-of-compost-can-you-power-heat-your-off-grid-home-with-compost/
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gerontocrat

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #39 on: March 11, 2017, 11:14:32 AM »

Sigm

A few years back there was a very early bloom in the apple orchards here about, followed by a snap freeze that destroyed the crop.
Hope no huge swings occur this year.


Terry

5 a.m. 11 march Washington DC TEMPERATURE   -3  degrees C.
Staying cold at least until Thursday (min -7 C)

Unseasonably cold over NE USA for several days.
No info on effect on fruit crops and pollinating insects.

Climate change now = wild swings ?
Lamar Smith will get his snowball ?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #40 on: March 11, 2017, 02:33:55 PM »

Sigm

A few years back there was a very early bloom in the apple orchards here about, followed by a snap freeze that destroyed the crop.
Hope no huge swings occur this year.


Terry

5 a.m. 11 march Washington DC TEMPERATURE   -3  degrees C.
Staying cold at least until Thursday (min -7 C)

Unseasonably cold over NE USA for several days.
No info on effect on fruit crops and pollinating insects.

Climate change now = wild swings ?
Lamar Smith will get his snowball ?

And they are looking at a crippling blizzard due to hit next week:

Gary Szatkowski: Euro and GFS models held serve overnight and continue to highlight potential for high impact Nor'easter early next week.
     All the threats of a high impact Nor'easter continue for early next week.  Heavy snow/rain, strong winds, coastal flooding.
https://mobile.twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/840542948248965121
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nicibiene

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #41 on: April 07, 2017, 01:43:48 PM »
No good time for bears...ice and brownbears too:

Dr Kolchin said: 'Factors like weather and natural fruiting cycles influenced what happened. Extensive logging added to it. Summer 2016 was very cold and rainy and while oak trees had good blossoming time, acorns didn't form due to abundant moisture and cold.

'Primorsky region also had a bad harvest in northern and central districts, but it was not as severe as Khabarovsk region. Extensive logging added to problems for the Himalayan bears in surviving the hungry season.'

Significantly, in Bikin national park - protected from logging - the most numerous population of black bears is thriving. There was a reduced harvest of nuts and acorns, but sufficient for survival, say experts.

'The bears  hibernated in time,' he said. 'We did not observe here animals that failed to hibernate, or were exhausted, or died of hunger during the winter.'


http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/news/hungry-exhausted-only-half-their-normal-weight-tragedy-for-black-bears/
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Archimid

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #42 on: April 10, 2017, 01:54:05 PM »
Warming Bleaches Two-Thirds of Great Barrier Reef

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/04/great-barrier-reef-climate-change-coral-bleaching/

Extract:
A huge portion of the 1,400-mile structure has now suffered severe damage for the second straight year–and scientists blame climate change.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #43 on: April 20, 2017, 09:51:55 PM »
Disease Burden Growing as Vector Insects Adapt to Climate Change
...
Agard was reporting on a study by the late Dave Chadee, a co-author on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and UWI professor. The study examined evolutionary changes in the life cycle of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, which spreads the yellow and dengue fevers as well as the chikungunya and Zika viruses.

We found out that in higher temperatures, the mosquito’s breeding cycle shortens. They go through more cycles during the season and they produce more offspring. The mosquitoes, however, are a little smaller,” Agard told journalists.

Even more worrisome were Chadee’s findings on the longevity of the “evolved” mosquitoes – 100 days instead of the 30 days they were previously thought to survive. The study also found that mosquitoes that survived longer than 90 days could produce eggs and offspring that were born transmitters, raising new concerns.

Alarming as these findings were, they were only the latest on the evolutionary strategies of vector insect populations in the Caribbean. A study published in February 2016 revealed that the triatomino (or vinchuca), the vector insects for Chagas disease, were breeding twice a year instead of only in the rainy season. And before that in 2011, Barbadian Environmental officers found mosquitoes breeding in junction boxes underground.
...
http://www.ipsnews.net/2017/04/disease-burden-growing-as-vector-insects-adapt-to-climate-change/
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Archimid

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #44 on: April 21, 2017, 03:46:33 AM »
FAQ: MICROBES AND CLIMATE CHANGE, APRIL 2017

http://www.asm.org/index.php/colloquium-reports/item/4479-microbes-and-climate-change

Introduction:

Microorganisms have been changing the climate, and have been changed by the climate, throughout Earth’s history. As we experience unprecedented environmental impacts from climate change, microorganisms will respond, adapt, and evolve in their surroundings. Because they have generation times as short as a few hours, they will do so at higher rates than most other organisms. This makes microbes ideal sentinels for understanding the effects of climate change on biological systems and the global biogeochemical cycles that microbes mediate. Scientists
can study the effects of climate change on microbes to both understand and hopefully predict the future effects of climate change on all forms of life.

This colloquium brought together members of the American Society for Microbiology and the American Geophysical Union because understanding climate change impacts requires experts from
many scientific disciplines. The collaboration between these two societies intermingled scientists knowledgeable about microbial contributions and responses to climate change across global settings (terrestrial polar regions; soil, agriculture, and freshwater; oceans) and able to think broadly about the functions of microbiomes.

Although scientists have been studying microbial ecosystems for many years, we realize we have much more to learn and understand about complex and interconnected microbial functions. The information in this report reflects the current understanding of microbes and our changing climate, as well as gaps and priorities for future study.
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Archimid

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #45 on: April 26, 2017, 04:16:16 PM »
Climate change is making algal blooms worse

https://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-is-making-algal-blooms-worse-1.21884

Extract:
Researchers have long suggested that climate change could mean more damage from algal blooms — runaway growths of algae that can strangle marine ecosystems and devastate coastal economies. Now, a study has unpicked how warming ocean temperatures have already driven an intensification of blooms around North America — the first time this link has been established at an ocean scale.
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Archimid

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #46 on: May 15, 2017, 05:18:58 PM »
Migratory birds bumped off schedule as climate change shifts spring

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-05/fmon-mbb051217.php

Extract:
New research shows climate change is altering the delicate seasonal clock that North American migratory songbirds rely on to successfully mate and raise healthy offspring, setting in motion a domino effect that could threaten the survival of many familiar backyard bird species.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #47 on: May 18, 2017, 03:11:12 PM »
Koalas clinging on as NSW numbers shrink 25% in 20 years
...
Dr Adams-Hosking said coastal populations were at risk from increased urbanisation, while inland areas faced worsening threats from land clearing.

Looming over the top of both, climate change was already affecting both regions by pushing animals beyond natural tolerance levels while diminishing the range and nutrient value of their food trees, she said.

"A temperature of about 37.7 degrees is about the maximum they can tolerate, and we're getting 10 days well into the 40s in some areas [with koala habitat]," Dr Adams-Hosking said. "There's absolutely no doubt climate change is already hitting koalas."

Gunnedah, for instance, lost 25 per cent of its koalas during the 2009 heatwaves, the WWF-Australia report noted....
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/animals/koalas-clinging-on-as-nsw-numbers-shrink-a-quarter-in-20-years-20170518-gw7rpp.html
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Archimid

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #48 on: May 29, 2017, 03:00:49 AM »
Marine Species Distribution Shifts Will Continue Under Ocean Warming

https://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/press_release/pr2017/scispot/ss1705/

Extract
Scientists using a high-resolution global climate model and historical observations of species distributions on the Northeast U.S. Shelf have found that commercially important species will continue to shift their distribution as ocean waters warm two to three times faster than the global average through the end of this century. Projected increases in surface to bottom waters of  6.6 to 9 degrees F (3.7 to 5.0 degrees Celsius) from current conditions are expected.

There is something fishy about that article.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« Reply #49 on: June 18, 2017, 01:45:27 AM »
Florida beaches are getting so hot that baby sea turtles are cooking alive
...
According to Oceana, a Washington, DC-based nonprofit dedicated to marine conservation, rising sand temperatures have already killed off entire nests on beaches in Florida and Costa Rica. “We’re seeing more dead eggs,” Jeanette Wyneken, a biologist studying sea turtles at the Florida Atlantic University, told Oceana. “And when we do get turtles hatching, they’re often heat stressed: They may hatch and crawl to the water, but then die.” The strain of surviving at elevated temperatures drains them of the energy their tiny bodies need to travel far enough to start feeding.

Rising temperatures are a threat to these creatures in more ways than one. For sea turtles (and many other reptiles) the temperature of the sand the eggs develop in determines sex (paywall). Typically, sands above 29.5°C (85°F) produce female turtles and cooler temperatures around 28°C (82°F) produce males. So as temperatures have warmed, conservation scientists have found that females have begun to outnumber males by nearly four to one in some nesting locations.

Scientists aren’t sure what makes for a healthy ratio of male to female turtles—they only recently started studying these numbers in response to climate change. But theoretically, an all-female population would eventually die out because they couldn’t reproduce.

The demise of entire turtle nests due to heat, though, would accelerate the die-off of turtle populations Prior research has shown that when sand reaches 35°C (95°F) (pdf) or hotter, turtles eggs are not able to hatch at all. It’s unclear how many unhatched turtles die as a result of each degree warmer their nests are, but the problem is likely to only get worse as global temperatures increase.
...
https://qz.com/1006306/climate-change-is-killing-sea-turtles-by-making-beaches-too-hot-for-the-newly-hatched-to-survive/
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