Allow me to intervene in your discussion. The way to define abrupt climate change is not clear at all, but I sense that you will all appreciate that these statements have been made recently in various threads here:
1) “1C increase a year for 5 straight years, then it levels off for a few years only to rise later by another series of 1C a year for 5 years for a total of 10C!”
2) “some on the forum expect otherwise.”
3) “A cliff is the right analogy for a range of reasons. Perhaps most starkly it’s climate change…”
4) ” I guess that I should have posted this here instead of the freezing season thread.”
5) " There may be a better thread for this line of thought..."
Having such difficulties defining whether we are falling off a cliff, whether we are in the freezing or melting season and whether poor freezing may lead to rapid melting, I think it is time to get our act together,
By getting our act together, I mean that we should all accept that we are here trying to make a coherent and collaborative risk assessment regarding the ultimate loss of Arctic sea ice. Should we lose it this autumn, we all know that it could potentially be gone forever. Permanent. Full stop. Lost!
Hence I would suggest a new unifying thread under the label: Towards an ice-free 2017
. In case we do not reach this state before Christmas, there will be an opportunity to open up a similar 2018 thread.
Such a thread could unite both the various freezing and melting threads. It could include the somewhat speculative “Ice-free Arctic” thread as well as the “Arctic temperature layers and inversions” thread. Sometimes it helps to bring thoughts together.
I would like to see a slower pace here, deeper thoughts, fewer and better links and more reflection. Keeping up with all the valid contributions to this forum is a nearly 24/7 job. No wonder Neven is getting tired. So are the rest of us trying to catch up on North American and Australian contributions, when we wake up in the morning.
It is time to focus, communicate clearly and not get lost in details.