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Paddy

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #200 on: March 13, 2017, 05:17:44 PM »
Btw, Neven, "sis" is usually a colloquialism for "sister". Although I'm sure seaicesailor wouldn't be offended by the monikor.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #201 on: March 13, 2017, 06:24:13 PM »
Thanks, bro.  ;)
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Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #202 on: March 13, 2017, 07:04:06 PM »
@Hyperion
The circulation patterns over the Arctic match all the way up to 250 hpa, but change between there and 70 hpa.(If I am looking at it, wrong please correct me) If you have the mslp button on, while on Earth NS it makes it appear to match higher and will read wrong sometimes even after you turn it off. Still I find it pretty remarkable that the patterns match all the way up to jet stream height. Not saying that has never happened at all, but I don't recall seeing it. Anyone have a clue as to what this might mean?
The circulation exists anticlockwise over the arctic one and the Antarctic clockwise still at the 70hpa about 18km. Above that the arctic one has a clockwise up to 270 kmph vortex. Possibly its high altitude outflow. Certainly the only point in the 10hpa world colder than below it. But intermeshed is a raging anticlockwise spool winding in a jet from the equator that passes 1.5 times around the planet. I'm hypothesising a mechanism  may exist for that one assisting spawning the nth Atlantic new ones that keep forming directly beneath it.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #203 on: March 13, 2017, 07:14:16 PM »
@Hyperion
The circulation patterns over the Arctic match all the way up to 250 hpa, but change between there and 70 hpa.(If I am looking at it, wrong please correct me) If you have the mslp button on, while on Earth NS it makes it appear to match higher and will read wrong sometimes even after you turn it off. Still I find it pretty remarkable that the patterns match all the way up to jet stream height. Not saying that has never happened at all, but I don't recall seeing it. Anyone have a clue as to what this might mean?
The circulation exists anticlockwise over the arctic one and the Antarctic clockwise still at the 70hpa about 18km. Above that the arctic one has a clockwise up to 270 kmph vortex. Possibly its high altitude outflow. Certainly the only point in the 10hpa world colder than below it. But intermeshed is a raging anticlockwise spool winding in a jet from the equator that passes 1.5 times around the planet. I'm hypothesising a mechanism  may exist for that one assisting spawning the nth Atlantic new ones that keep forming directly beneath it.

A 3-D  model would really come in handy for that.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #204 on: March 13, 2017, 08:39:29 PM »
Btw, Neven, "sis" is usually a colloquialism for "sister". Although I'm sure seaicesailor wouldn't be offended by the monikor.
LOL
I didn't notice (not native in english tongue) so fine with me.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #205 on: March 13, 2017, 08:55:38 PM »
I got an idea from a post by johnm33 earlier where he referred to the temperature band on worldview. So. I took a look at it from the start of winter til now. February was the only month that didn't see a lot of warmth sneak in under the ice. March was a different story as seen here in the gif.
....
Thank you for putting this together, but I am puzzled why you think this shows warmth sneaking in "under the ice". Can you explain?
The thermal infrared band shows clouds (warmer low clouds and colder high cloud tops) or snow / ice surface (which quickly gets cold under clear sky, when it is visible from the satellite)
Thinner ice shows up as warmer areas, especially when frozen over very recently, and open ocean is the warmest surface seen in arctic winter even if it is near freezing temperature.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #206 on: March 13, 2017, 09:05:23 PM »
I got an idea from a post by johnm33 earlier where he referred to the temperature band on worldview. So. I took a look at it from the start of winter til now. February was the only month that didn't see a lot of warmth sneak in under the ice. March was a different story as seen here in the gif. CLICK IMAGE March 1st- 12th
Also, I made a Youtube  video of Dec. 1st til March 12th for the bigger picture. Probably not a huge amount of energy coming in at any one time this way, but remember it can't escape into space as easily as it used to.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmPWtIt0r3k


could this kind of temperature analyzes be used to at least cross-check on volume claims by the different models?

as it seems the temps correlate well enough with the thickness so that one could at least see wether any claim by the models is possible or out of question. for example that would mean that if a lot of heat dissipates into the atmosphere which will show as higher temps in this image, one could discount the possibility of 5m thick ice in the same area and vice versa.

just a thought to help get to terms with the not yet solved issue with all the thickness models which perhaps at the end are all not correct, but a mix of them.

end of brain storm, may the experts consider and eventually ponder over this, i'm just saying that often mixing/combining skills information and ingredients will finally do the maths. at least the past has shown
that this is often true :-)
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Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #207 on: March 13, 2017, 10:34:58 PM »
I've been looking at ASCAT radar images and saw some interesting features. Here's an animation for the past week, and those features are in the first frame (white circle and rectangle):



Usually, dark means thin in radar images, and these features have been there since November. The one in the circle looks especially interesting, but I don't know if it means these regions are  thinner. And I haven't compared to other years yet either, but I thought I'd throw it out here to see what you guys think.

tracking the area in the circle back to september I can confirm what SIS spotted in the russian ice chart: this was open water on Sept 17th (changing shape somewhat) the outline seems to be formed by ice movement at the time when it froze over a few days after that.
Clouds obscure the area in the visible images but AMSR brightness temp helps to track it and relate worldview to the ASCAT images.
attached are:
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2016260.sir.gif
and http://go.nasa.gov/2mTOnOl

Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #208 on: March 13, 2017, 11:34:00 PM »
...
 For example, if a surface area shows up colder one day and warmer the next, did the ice get thinner there overnight? Did something heat the area from above? Or is it more likely, for the time of year that warm water moved underneath and is now showing up?
No, if the area shows up warmer from one day to the next, this is caused by warm and moist air moving in which in arctic winter forms clouds. These clouds are opaque to IR and therefore you see the clouds and not the ice surface. When you zoom in you can distinguish the cracked patterns of ice surface and the softer contours of fast moving clouds. If the clouds are very thick the cloud tops are at a much higher altitude and cold by adiabatic expansion, but low clouds will show up warmer than the ice surface. Below the clouds the ice surface will warm but not necessarily to the temperature of the cloud, it is quite likely that there is a temperature inversion. The ice surface which was visible from the satellite was cold because it is radiating into space (where the satellite sees its IR emission). When clouds move between ice and satellite they radiate (due to their temperature and emissivity) Downwelling Longwave Radiation to give the ice surface a less negative radiation balance (or a positive one if the clouds are warmer than the ice). Since the ice surface also has a heat flux from the sea below, this less negative radiation balance is enough to raise its temperature. But in winter the bulk of the ice is still colder than freezing point and there is no melting. (unless the water is sufficiently above the freezing temp, as we see off Spitsbergen)

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #209 on: March 14, 2017, 02:42:57 AM »
DMI now shows temperatures back up 5-7C above normal (250-255K). It is now too late for cold temperatures to permit a recovery in volume.

In another 10 days we start the sharp spring climb in temperatures as the sun returns.  The current and coming storms pretty much preclude any serious return of cold weather.

What we have is about what we are going to get, ice-wise.

Yes, as I said, March surprise.


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #210 on: March 14, 2017, 09:42:16 AM »
Winds look to really favor Fram export over the next few days. Not much quality to the ice in that area, so as to offer any resistance.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #211 on: March 14, 2017, 10:06:42 AM »
I will prepare good coffee over next several days. Strong winds near Svalbard support Fram export Mar 14 - Mar 19 and Mar 21 (GFS). Also low pressures over Arctic and higher than usual temperatures. Here is example of Wed ice drift estimate.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #212 on: March 14, 2017, 10:32:20 AM »
Yep. Mean temperatures won't be telling half of the story. Kara, Barentsz, Okhotsk, Bering seas suffering anomalous temps especially that wave coming from Eurasia according to GFS (0 -168h forecasts below). The low will be pulling and pushing, with a well defined front of temperature. Those cracks along the Asian coast will eventually  refreeze but chances are we are going to see them a lot in Tealights maps come May.
The only part that is faring well is the young ice of the Beaufort sea at the moment. Quiet and cold.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 11:08:53 AM by seaicesailor »

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #213 on: March 14, 2017, 10:52:43 AM »
Although I also think the thinness of sea ice is the reason here, I am sure other factors can also play into this such as snow darkened by some substances like ash and smoke particles that are fallen onto snow and ice surfaces - even during winter. These could alter the radiative balance (flow) of both visible light and long wave spectrum. There is also possibility of properties of silt from the rivers and residual heat from turbulent and mixing break water (altering densities temperature-salinity) that can push more or less heat through ice cover. Indeed, in summer season I have seen rebounce radiation from sea water managing to make its way through snow covered ice to surface making slight variations in the colour of sea ice/snow cover as colour of water shines through ice and snow. (The water beneath ice is illuminated in colours of blue, green, brown or gray depending on riparian discharge and algae growth - noticing these through ice and snow requires a good eye to notice the colours against the immense glare of snow in satellite images.) How significant these are in long-wave region of spectrum, I do not know. In visible light the colours of water beneath ice and snow are hard to see on many occasions.

In addition, the barren ice, thickness of snow cover, and its compactness all change heat signature from sea (besides sea ice thickness). These complications could be more pronounced in interpreting future images as there might be heavier snowfalls on ice ("lake-snow effect on sea ice off the open areas" was, after all, once proposed as the cause of immense snow falls of the Ice Ages, proposed by Maurice Ewing and William Donn. [Ewing-Donn Lake-Snow Effect of the Arctic as cause of open Arctic Ocean flipping into the Ice Age in 1950's. Their case failed in sediment cores leading to reversion back to earlier Milutin Milankovic's orbital forcing effects as driver of glaciations-deglaciations]. Methane laden sea water also has different radiative properties, but whether it is significant in water is another matter as thermal inertia of water is massive in comparison to air. If it were, then water from above methane clathrates would appear warmer.

I've been looking at ASCAT radar images and saw some interesting features. Here's an animation for the past week, and those features are in the first frame (white circle and rectangle):



Usually, dark means thin in radar images, and these features have been there since November. The one in the circle looks especially interesting, but I don't know if it means these regions are  thinner. And I haven't compared to other years yet either, but I thought I'd throw it out here to see what you guys think.

tracking the area in the circle back to september I can confirm what SIS spotted in the russian ice chart: this was open water on Sept 17th (changing shape somewhat) the outline seems to be formed by ice movement at the time when it froze over a few days after that.
Clouds obscure the area in the visible images but AMSR brightness temp helps to track it and relate worldview to the ASCAT images.
attached are:
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2016260.sir.gif
and http://go.nasa.gov/2mTOnOl

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #214 on: March 14, 2017, 05:11:19 PM »
Looking closely thru the ECMWF to the "yet another" bomb storm from the North Atlantic in four- five days, I think it is going to make puree. And it comes with friends from Norway Kara and the now native or permanent resident of the Arctic. Storms unleashed until when.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #215 on: March 14, 2017, 06:08:14 PM »
That "bomb" is currently giving 30CM of snow to my sister near Boston...
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romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #216 on: March 14, 2017, 07:59:22 PM »
Here is the latest HYCOM ice thickness forecast Mar 14 - Mar 21. Confirms solid Fram export and also Kara Sea thinning (near Novaya Zemlya). Also Laptev Sea coast and ESS coast are not in a good position. On the other hand Beaufort Sea seems to be better so far.
Images: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #217 on: March 14, 2017, 08:39:00 PM »
I must say my confidence in ACNFS thickness has grown this freezing season, some late tweak in 2015 or 2016 must have improved it since it is not so far as it used to wrt Cryosat and PIOMAS (granted there are differences). Similarities as well with the AMSR2-based product in the shape of the old ice, with ASCAT patterns etc. The same I DON'T feel about the DMI HYCOM.
I doubt the confidence will remain during summer.

slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #218 on: March 14, 2017, 08:42:52 PM »
Thanks Romett1. Yes, the HYCOM prediction is scary, with a lot of thicker ice either exiting through the Fram Strait or else heading in that direction.

  A lot of the thickening in the Beaufort Sea appears to be from compression, with the ice blown towards the Alaskan and Canadian Arctic coastlines.

  It's going to be critical how much new ice grows over the next month on the Siberian side to replace the ice that has migrated West. Are we going to have much of the thin ice on the Atlantic side of the Laptev Sea melted out and exposed to peak insolation by around the Summer solstice?
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 08:52:05 PM by slow wing »

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #219 on: March 14, 2017, 10:06:15 PM »
... Are we going to have much of the thin ice on the Atlantic side of the Laptev Sea melted out and exposed to peak insolation by around the Summer solstice?
It's quite plausible though far from certain.

What I noted was the rapid melt in the western Kara. That retreat could amplify changes in the Laptev and Barents.

The ice exiting the Fram does appear to be from exactly the densest remaining MYI in the basin aside from that packed along the CAA.  Hard to think of worse ice to have destroyed this early in the season.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #220 on: March 14, 2017, 10:39:55 PM »
You have to wonder if the thick ice above the CAA isn't the product of numerous compaction events. It seems to break up if you look at the wrong way. It just doesn't seem dense or homogeneous like MYI should be. If that is the case, there may be even less MYI left than we thought.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #221 on: March 14, 2017, 10:51:31 PM »
You have to wonder if the thick ice above the CAA isn't the product of numerous compaction events. It seems to break up if you look at the wrong way. It just doesn't seem dense or homogeneous like MYI should be. If that is the case, there may be even less MYI left than we thought.
No doubt about compaction as the ice has been mobile.

I credit the warmer ice temperatures as responsible for the ice's apparent friable condition.  It loses mechanical strength  rapidly as you get above -30C or so.
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #222 on: March 15, 2017, 12:00:09 AM »
The GFS forecast shows rain areas in the Kara Sea every day for the next 5 days.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #223 on: March 15, 2017, 02:21:10 AM »
 I thought it might be at least a little interesting to see what the export ready ice looks like at this time.            CLICK IMAGE TO ACTIVATE PLEASE

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #224 on: March 15, 2017, 09:30:10 AM »

It's going to be critical how much new ice grows over the next month on the Siberian side to replace the ice that has migrated West. Are we going to have much of the thin ice on the Atlantic side of the Laptev Sea melted out and exposed to peak insolation by around the Summer solstice?


You must be psychic. This just appeared in my mail box:

Winter sea ice export from the Laptev Sea preconditions the local summer sea ice cover

Received: 27 Feb 2017 – Accepted for review: 11 Mar 2017 – Discussion started: 15 Mar 2017

Abstract: Recent studies based on satellite observations have shown that there is a high statistical connection between the late winter (Feb-May) sea ice export out the Laptev Sea, and the ice coverage in the following summer. By means of airborne sea ice thickness surveys made over pack ice areas in the southeastern Laptev Sea, we show that years of offshore directed sea ice transport have a thinning effect on the late winter sea ice cover, and vice versa. Once temperature rise above freezing, these thin ice zones melt more rapidly and hence, precondition local anomalies in summer sea ice cover. The preconditioning effect of the winter ice dynamics for the summer sea ice extent is confirmed with a model sensitivity study where we replace the inter-annual summer atmospheric forcing by a climatology. In the model, years with high late winter sea ice export always result in a reduced sea ice cover, and vice versa. We conclude that the observed tendency towards an increased ice export further accelerates ice retreat in summer. The mechanism presented in this study highlights the importance of winter ice dynamics for summer sea ice anomalies in addition to atmospheric processes acting on the ice cover between May and September. Finally, we show that ice dynamics in winter not only precondition local summer ice extent, but also accelerate fast ice decay.


Am I too early announcing the Northern Sea Route will be completely open again this year?  ;)
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #225 on: March 15, 2017, 10:42:45 AM »
But wasn't kind of obvious from these past years? We can pick the paper, find/replace Laptev by Beaufort and submit a new paper... ;P
Just kidding, maximum respect to their work

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #226 on: March 15, 2017, 10:58:46 AM »
This 'period of transition' is occurring far faster than science can respond? We are seeing 'Deniers' running with the 'weather cost as much Arctic ice as warming' paper whilst we sit at the tail end of the Meteorological winter over the basin we have just seen?

I'm sure that once 'ice free' we will still be seeing papers about a 'slow transition' and why this is how things will be?

These days I always find myself checking the study period and if it includes data from before the mid noughties I consider it dated by the changes we have seen to the system since?

When we look at the troposphere/Stratosphere over the basin this past winter and compare that to weathers over winter from the 90's can we compare them? Is there 'continuation' across that time or is 'weather/circulation' now too altered for a like for like comparison? So how does this new paper advance understanding of the future or should it be treated as a historical document looking at the workings of 'The Old Arctic'?
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #227 on: March 15, 2017, 01:53:02 PM »

Am I too early announcing the Northern Sea Route will be completely open again this year?  ;)

No.

I would be shocked if the Northern Sea Route doesn't open this year and would not be surprised if it opened very early.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 02:22:13 PM by Shared Humanity »

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #228 on: March 15, 2017, 02:06:25 PM »
The Central Arctic Basin has fractured from the sea ice edge to 90 N in the last week. You will need to download and zoom the images to see the full effects. No time to crop and post.

This ice is a mess and moving in troubling ways.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #229 on: March 15, 2017, 02:20:49 PM »
This 'period of transition' is occurring far faster than science can respond? We are seeing 'Deniers' running with the 'weather cost as much Arctic ice as warming' paper whilst we sit at the tail end of the Meteorological winter over the basin we have just seen?


Someone needs to explain to them that this "weather" (a pattern we have watched emerge for a decade) is not weather. It is called "Climate Change" and I believe more or less permanent. These low pressure systems, often emerging over the Gulf Stream and then racing up into the North Atlantic, east of Greenland and spinning into the Barents and Arctic Ocean are becoming more and more frequent. They have caused very violent weather, entire seasons actually, in the British Isles and are decimating Arctic Ice. One frequent feature of this is a high pressure that sets up over Greenland, just as we are seeing in this forecast. IIRC, these cyclone cannons are occurring in every season but I could be wrong about that.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #230 on: March 15, 2017, 02:38:14 PM »
Someone needs to explain to them that this "weather" (a pattern we have watched emerge for a decade) is not weather.
Ok.
"This is not normal weather. In fact all the weather since 1998 hasn't been. Umm. We only see it now since..."
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romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #231 on: March 15, 2017, 03:37:48 PM »
Ice drift forecast for tomorrow, Mar 16. Fram export same as today.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #232 on: March 15, 2017, 04:36:02 PM »
Ice drift forecast for tomorrow, Mar 16. Fram export same as today.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
And there we have 10-15000 KM2/day of MYI getting drop-kicked out of the Arctic.
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #233 on: March 15, 2017, 05:10:41 PM »
Ice drift forecast for tomorrow, Mar 16. Fram export same as today.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Hey Ho , lets go! That's just fycked yp and totally agaimst whatever we were taught of arctic winter.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #234 on: March 15, 2017, 05:44:28 PM »
Weather-forecast.com says conditions favourable for export for next 4 to 6 days.

Never a dull monent.

tzupancic

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #235 on: March 15, 2017, 10:45:22 PM »
Does anyone have any comments on the paper that came out on Monday in Nature Climate Change, "Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice". http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/nclimate3241.html

The authors propose that a substantial amount of the recently observed summer decline in Arctic Sea Ice has been driven by natural variation in atmospheric circulation. "The Arctic has seen rapid sea-ice decline in the past three decades, whilst warming at about twice the global average rate. Yet the relationship between Arctic warming and sea-ice loss is not well understood. Here, we present evidence that trends in summertime atmospheric circulation may have contributed as much as 60% to the September sea-ice extent decline since 1979. A tendency towards a stronger anticyclonic circulation over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean with a barotropic structure in the troposphere increased the downwelling longwave radiation above the ice by warming and moistening the lower troposphere. Model experiments, with reanalysis data constraining atmospheric circulation, replicate the observed thermodynamic response and indicate that the near-surface changes are dominated by circulation changes rather than feedbacks from the changing sea-ice cover. Internal variability dominates the Arctic summer circulation trend and may be responsible for about 30–50% of the overall decline in September sea ice since 1979."

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #236 on: March 15, 2017, 10:57:01 PM »
Does anyone have any comments on the paper that came out on Monday in Nature Climate Change


I have a whole article on the topic, albeit with the emphasis thus far on the reporting of the paper rather than the substance of it:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/

All this excitement in the Twittosphere and elsewhere leads one to wonder whether Ding, Schweiger et al. saw (or should have seen?) all this coming, and if so what might have been done differently? In any event this story is set to run and run and run and……
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Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #237 on: March 15, 2017, 11:05:40 PM »
Went to look, and sure enough, this is a featured paper at WUWT where it's being sold as confirming natural cycles are responsible, not anthropogenic causes.

Expect to get repeatedly battered by deniers with this paper.  They've been given their marching orders.

See up thread for comments.   

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #238 on: March 15, 2017, 11:19:32 PM »
I started the following thread to funnel the important discussion brought by tzupancic away from the melting season 2017 thread.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1920.0.html
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #239 on: March 15, 2017, 11:32:50 PM »
These low pressure systems, often emerging over the Gulf Stream and then racing up into the North Atlantic, east of Greenland and spinning into the Barents and Arctic Ocean are becoming more and more frequent.

Is there a site that is keeping frequency/strength storm data?


VeliAlbertKallio

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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #241 on: March 16, 2017, 01:15:20 AM »
No doubt about movement in the Fram.
13th-15th
CLICK IMAGE

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #242 on: March 16, 2017, 01:21:46 AM »
No doubt about movement in the Fram.
13th-15th
CLICK IMAGE


Those are some pretty old looking does saying bye bye...
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #243 on: March 16, 2017, 01:23:58 AM »
No doubt about movement in the Fram.
13th-15th
CLICK IMAGE


this looks like the output of a rock grinder, except for the white instead of grey :-( those big floes must be quite thick from the locks and considering they were not yet entirely grinded.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #244 on: March 16, 2017, 01:38:49 AM »
That big floe turning the corner seems to move a longer distance from 14 to 15 than from 13 to 14. I wonder if that is an artifact of the images or is it actual acceleration of the floe.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #245 on: March 16, 2017, 02:47:57 AM »
That big floe turning the corner seems to move a longer distance from 14 to 15 than from 13 to 14. I wonder if that is an artifact of the images or is it actual acceleration of the floe.

It looks like the wind had picked up about that time, so it probably actually accelerated.

tzupancic

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #246 on: March 16, 2017, 05:26:01 AM »
Regarding the discussion of fundamental drivers of the observed Arctic Sea Ice melt, thanks to Archimid for establishing a separate thread to discuss emerging scientific insight into the fundamentals of the melt.

Those who are interested should check out the new "Arctic Sea Ice Changes: Natural Variation vs human influence" discussion thread.

The discussion begins with the paper published this week in Nature Climate Change "Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice"


epiphyte

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #247 on: March 16, 2017, 05:47:49 AM »
But wasn't kind of obvious from these past years?

The response to your rhetorical interrogatory is tentatively in the affirmative, with the caveat that the imputation of any causal relationship between export of ice from the arctic and subsequent paucity of arctic ice is necessarily to be regarded as speculative until recognized in an adequately polysyllabic exposition of...

(As Basil Fawlty would have it)

...Mastermind special subject - "The Bleedin' Obvious!"


...

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #248 on: March 16, 2017, 06:23:05 AM »
The ice disposal at work.
Notice how the whole front drops back toward the end of the run.  10th-15th

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #249 on: March 16, 2017, 07:24:25 AM »
The Kara retreat has started to materialize. And that red stain (the PIOMAS blob) is still inching its way towards the Fram and oblivion.