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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #250 on: March 16, 2017, 08:10:41 AM »
Is there an artefact or is the ice in Kara and Laptev "thickening"? Look at the color change between those days, the 10-15.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #251 on: March 16, 2017, 08:21:52 AM »
Is there an artefact or is the ice in Kara and Laptev "thickening"? Look at the color change between those days, the 10-15.
I don't see it LMV; at least, I don't see anything that stands out enough to my eye to consider it significant.
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #252 on: March 16, 2017, 08:42:16 AM »
Cloud effects? 
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #253 on: March 16, 2017, 08:54:13 AM »
Jdallen: the ice color change from a green tone to a more yellow one, which should imply a thickening of the ice. This is more visible for the 14-15th in the sequence. As DrTskoul says, it could be due to cloud effects which seems likely as I have hard to see that the ice would thicken that much over a few days. Of course, maybe compaction and strong winds might do the trick but doesn't seem likely.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #254 on: March 16, 2017, 10:46:12 AM »
The ECMWF has entered into loop mode and predicts for day 10 another bomb storm entering the Barents and displaying similar circulation to the current one about to mess things up.
Everything can change but worth keeping an eye.
In the Pacific side all seems quiet and nice except for the fact that ACNFS is foreseeing an activation of Bering inflow, probably due to persistent lows over Aleutians (will post animation later)

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #255 on: March 16, 2017, 10:58:31 AM »
956mb over brittle ,thin ice??? Surely this cannot be a good start to the season!

Temps may not be melt season temps but the lowest of the winter temps are now behind us so the ice will be starting to warm up along with the rest of the basin.

My concerns are that we have changed from a system where we had 'down time' over winter ( and could leave the forum until melt season began) to a system where winter is more important than the weathers over summer?

If we see another dreadful summer for melt yet see ice finish in the bottom three then will it not signal we have flipped into a very different beastie over the Arctic Basin?
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #256 on: March 16, 2017, 11:50:53 AM »
You have to remember also what that warmer water in the Barents is capable of doing when it gets disturbed. It has been building back up, waiting to get moved around again.


BTW, here is a look at SMOS.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2017, 11:58:20 AM by Tigertown »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #257 on: March 16, 2017, 12:16:12 PM »
I wouldn't count with that 956mb low... just mentioned to keep an eye. It is still in fantasy-land. Peobably the general circulation will hold though.
The 970mb storm just hitting the door is nasty enough

pauldry600

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #258 on: March 16, 2017, 12:57:09 PM »
I think this melt season will be the lowest on record.

My head tells me it will easily break the record but then when i read all your posts on things i cant even begin to understand i feel a slight break of the record will happen.

Maybe the mins will just get slightly lower each year for a decade or so.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #259 on: March 16, 2017, 03:21:07 PM »
Look how tight the Isobars are over the Fram!

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #260 on: March 16, 2017, 03:43:27 PM »
Weather-forecast.com says conditions favourable for export for next 4 to 6 days.

Never a dull monent.

Not surprisingly, ice drift estimate for tomorrow, Mar 17. There are also strong 15 - 18 m/s winds east of Svalbard, so export in two places.
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6roucho

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #261 on: March 16, 2017, 04:10:07 PM »
That big floe turning the corner seems to move a longer distance from 14 to 15 than from 13 to 14. I wonder if that is an artifact of the images or is it actual acceleration of the floe.
Venturi effect?

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #262 on: March 16, 2017, 10:11:30 PM »
Meanwhile,  the heat is on... cci-reanalyzer shows the lowest anomaly to be reached for the Arctic in its current forecast window is +2.8C. 

This is especially true near Novaya Zemlya, over the Kara Sea temperatures look to be frequently above freezing and not really getting much below.

So ice pumping down the Fram and heat pumping up the eastern Atlantic side...  Perfect conditions for the start of spring.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #263 on: March 17, 2017, 12:48:01 AM »
<snip, you're not paying attention>
« Last Edit: March 17, 2017, 10:06:38 AM by Neven »

Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #264 on: March 17, 2017, 03:33:25 AM »
Antarctic Sea Ice is doing what the Arctic sea ice did this last fall and winter.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_s_running_mean_amsr2_regular.png

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #265 on: March 17, 2017, 03:48:55 AM »
Antarctic Sea Ice is doing what the Arctic sea ice did this last fall and winter.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_s_running_mean_amsr2_regular.png

The ol' insolation batteries got charged a little too well. I look for it to happen again in the Arctic later this year to a greater degree than last year. You can already see the heat building in the oceans surrounding the Arctic by looking at the anomalies at high lats. on both sides. Will get worse when more waters are open.
                                                                                                                               

What do the failing predictive models have to do with the melting season?

That has been moved to another thread already, thanks to Archimid, who is becoming quite a useful contributor on this forum.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #266 on: March 17, 2017, 10:41:37 AM »
Meanwhile,  the heat is on... cci-reanalyzer shows the lowest anomaly to be reached for the Arctic in its current forecast window is +2.8C. 

This is especially true near Novaya Zemlya, over the Kara Sea temperatures look to be frequently above freezing and not really getting much below.

So ice pumping down the Fram and heat pumping up the eastern Atlantic side...  Perfect conditions for the start of spring.

Latest GFS - maximum anomaly per day until next Friday. FDD (Freezing Degree Days for 80N+) anomaly is now about 1,540 since September (last year it was about 950 at the same time).
I guess it's going to 1,600 level next week.

rboyd

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #267 on: March 17, 2017, 06:36:30 PM »
My understanding is that the anomaly tends to be higher in winter and less in the summer. Will be interesting to see if it persists at a high level during the summer, would reflect the increased albedo effect of more open water earlier in the season (versus the offsetting increased cloud cover assumed in many of the climate models).

Archimid

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #268 on: March 17, 2017, 06:49:08 PM »
My understanding is that the anomaly tends to be higher in winter and less in the summer.
Yes, but a persistent 4C+ anomaly through the whole winter is new to the data set. Also summer temperatures are limited by the ice. The anomalies during summer will not be this high until sufficient ice is gone.
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rboyd

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #269 on: March 17, 2017, 08:22:01 PM »
Could start to happen locally on the periphery, like the Kara Sea, ESS, and Beaufort, if the ice there goes early enough in the season. Would that then set up some significant temperature differentials with the ice covered areas?

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #270 on: March 17, 2017, 09:01:28 PM »
My understanding is that the anomaly tends to be higher in winter and less in the summer.
Yes, but a persistent 4C+ anomaly through the whole winter is new to the data set. Also summer temperatures are limited by the ice. The anomalies during summer will not be this high until sufficient ice is gone.

Right; ice and water together have to have a temperature around 0C; pumping more heat in just turns more of the ice to water. So summer anomalies can't really go up until the ice all melts.

For this reason, in the summer, we tend to look more at the 925 hPa (or is it mb? I forget) temperature forecasts, to get a sense of the warmth being transported in. By not looking right at the surface we can see how anomalously warm it is.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #271 on: March 18, 2017, 12:08:14 AM »
Could start to happen locally on the periphery, like the Kara Sea, ESS, and Beaufort, if the ice there goes early enough in the season. Would that then set up some significant temperature differentials with the ice covered areas?

as long as there is ice, temps won't go much above zero in that region, it's the laws of physics at play here and it has been well explained in this forum while i don't remember exactly where it was, perhaps you gonna find it with the help of the search function, else google is your friend :-)
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rboyd

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #272 on: March 18, 2017, 06:05:35 AM »
Thanks for the great responses!

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #273 on: March 18, 2017, 10:36:44 AM »
The ECMWF has entered into loop mode and predicts for day 10 another bomb storm entering the Barents and displaying similar circulation to the current one about to mess things up.
Everything can change but worth keeping an eye.

Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) is showing even higher max anomalies for Arctic.
Warmest areas Laptev, Kara and ESS. Also pressure 963 forecasted near Svalbard and FJL for next Saturday. Of course, it's pretty far, but still worth watching.

CalamityCountdown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #274 on: March 18, 2017, 04:33:37 PM »
Shouldn't the title of this thread be "The 2017 Melting Equilibrium Month"? Based on the NSIDC 5 day average, it appears that "melting season" did not get started until about the 27th during the last  two years

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #275 on: March 18, 2017, 07:05:57 PM »
Yet another Arctic cyclone drops below 970 hPa MSLP. The synoptic chart is from 1800Z last night:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2017/#comment-219974
« Last Edit: March 18, 2017, 07:12:43 PM by Jim Hunt »
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #276 on: March 18, 2017, 07:10:31 PM »
How many cyclones below 970 have we had this winter? I 've lost count...
« Last Edit: March 18, 2017, 07:32:05 PM by DrTskoul »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #277 on: March 18, 2017, 07:18:40 PM »
Shouldn't the title of this thread be "The 2017 Melting Equilibrium Month"?

Traditionally we only have a "freezing" and then a "melting" thread each year.

YMMV of course, but I reckon the loss of over 200k in two days could reasonably be described as "melting". Mind you this thread was started quite a while ago!
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #278 on: March 18, 2017, 08:19:40 PM »
Where that intense low is currently sitting and where the ice drift map is showing rapid ice movement, there is nothing resembling true ice pack. All of the ice under this low is highly fragmented and less than 2 meters thick, much of it only 1 meter thick. With warm water intrusion from the Barents, a nearly nonexistent halocline, this summer on the Atlantic side could be horrifying.

rboyd

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #279 on: March 18, 2017, 08:30:03 PM »
Unrelenting positive anomalies on the Russian side of the Arctic to March 26th from climate reanalyzer, not good for thickening the ice. Periods of near zero and above in the Kara Sea.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #280 on: March 18, 2017, 09:04:24 PM »
1000hpa warm air intrusion varying between +1oC and +2.2oC.
Starting now(left side) progressing in 3 hour intervals, left to right, and top down.

Clenchie

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #281 on: March 18, 2017, 09:46:21 PM »
Thanks Tigertown, a picture paints a thousand words.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #282 on: March 19, 2017, 04:38:16 AM »
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #283 on: March 19, 2017, 06:06:06 AM »
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.

With current temps there, I doubt we are seeing any thinning out in CAA. More like the usual thickening-in I'd say.
Kara otoh is going south pretty quickly this year.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #284 on: March 19, 2017, 06:15:19 AM »
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.


With current temps there, I doubt we are seeing any thinning out in CAA. More like the usual thickening-in I'd say.
Kara otoh is going south pretty quickly this year.

Oh, is the River Ob already in spring and flowing fast to Kara sea? The bay there could be an indication of that. The zero-degree fresh water from the river taking a toll on the -1 degree ice on the bay, possibly? The bay is somewhat brackish : www.researchgate.net/figure/283097363_fig3_Figure-4-Left-salinity-PSU-of-Kara-Sea-and-the-Gulf-of-Ob-in-summer-climatic-atlas
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 06:24:15 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #285 on: March 19, 2017, 06:40:30 AM »
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.
With current temps there, I doubt we are seeing any thinning out in CAA. More like the usual thickening-in I'd say.

Something changed around the 11th. Maybe that the ice is such slush that it is moving and compacting elsewhere with the wind.
Compare the 10th(left) with the 18th(right)

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #286 on: March 19, 2017, 07:40:35 AM »
As we speak, warm winds have reached to Laptev Sea. Temp +1.1 °C and wind 13 m/s.
That is 9:00 UTC according to earth.nullschool.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #287 on: March 19, 2017, 09:44:32 AM »
Latest GFS shows higher anomalies for Arctic persist (numbers are now average per day).
Warmest areas Laptev, Kara and ESS. Kara and Laptev seem to be constantly "warm" until next Sunday.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #288 on: March 19, 2017, 10:15:48 AM »
The retreat south of Novaya Zemlya is caused by winds and is bound to continue given the current forecast, with lows stationed over the Siberian side of the Arctic.

I've just called the maximum on the ASIB, and posted an animation of the ClimateReanalyzer GFS temp anomaly forecast for the coming week:

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Red

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #289 on: March 19, 2017, 11:23:25 AM »
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.

With current temps there, I doubt we are seeing any thinning out in CAA. More like the usual thickening-in I'd say.


Something changed around the 11th. Maybe that the ice is such slush that it is moving and compacting elsewhere with the wind.
Compare the 10th(left) with the 18th(right)


 The Canadian ice service (CIS) shows mostly old ice and medium FYI in the western CAA.
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56SD/20170313180000_WIS56SD_0009363745.pdf
 With the eastern CAA showing mostly medium FYI and some old ice showing up in the western edge.
The CIS definition of old ice: Sea ice which has survived at least one summer's melt.
glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS55SD/20170313180000_WIS55SD_0009363789.pdf

PS I can't seem to figure out how to capture the image.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #290 on: March 19, 2017, 01:41:20 PM »
The retreat south of Novaya Zemlya is caused by winds and is bound to continue given the current forecast, with lows stationed over the Siberian side of the Arctic.

I've just called the maximum on the ASIB, and posted an animation of the ClimateReanalyzer GFS temp anomaly forecast for the coming week:




The U.S. CFS model, the long range extension of the GFS predicts this atmospheric circulation pattern will continue through the spring so that north Siberian temperatures will average well above normal for months. Apparently, the ocean heat patterns are driving this general circulation pattern.

This portends a catastrophic summer for sea ice and Siberian permafrost.


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #291 on: March 19, 2017, 02:25:43 PM »
This portends a catastrophic summer for sea ice and Siberian permafrost.

Eastern continental Europe....+....northwestern Russia has had a warm spring.  Someone else has already made posts of the German drought this winter and spring.

The risk of SIGNIFICANT wildfires in northern Russia and especially northwestern Russia (including Moscow) is there are waiting.  The conditions are ripe.....now all that is needed is the right (wrong) weather patterns.

Additional wildfires.....like those in 2010.....is going to feed the already ravenous feedback effects.   We continue to take the "next step" into what everyone here KNEW is happening.  The only thing we don't know each year is (1) where is it going to be bad this year, and (2) how bad is bad going to be THIS YEAR?

Arctic ice likely heading for a new record low.  How low?  Is it going to be 5% below the 2012 record....or 15% below the prior record low?

Next decade likely to be "eye-popping" on several fronts:   Ice, temps, wildfires, etc.

The next week along the northern Russian coast could be an opening dagger for the ice melt season this year.

Nighttime temps in Russia are remaining high.....with a continued lack of "new record low temps".  The new record high temps haven't been incredibly high.....it's the LACK of new record low temps....they are becoming an endangered species.  Russia has 2 (two) new record low temps in the country so far this month.  They have 5 months THIS DECADE when they have had 10 or fewer new record low daily temps for any single month....and those have come over the last 40 months.  The entire decade of 2000 - 2009 had only 2 instances where a single month had 10 or few new record low temps. 

Going to be a crazy climate year....and a crazy climate decade.  Just make sure you remind people who has been lying over the past 10 - 30 years as this continues to unfold.

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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #292 on: March 19, 2017, 04:05:00 PM »
The atmosphere is efficiently removing the cold air from the Arctic and eliminating the cold by ramming it over the northwest Pacific and the NW Atlantic. This has happened because the Pacific decadal oscillation has shifted to the warm phase and the overturning circulation in the north Atlantic has gone into its more active mode. This PDO (or IPO) pattern expands the jet stream southward over the Pacific ocean. It also brings more heat from the Atlantic to central and northern Europe.

This all adds up to a warm early spring for northern Eurasia. And once in place it will be amplified by early snow loss and increasing heat uptake by the bare ground and open ocean.

Yes, expect a bad fire season in Russia and Siberia to start early and for the soot to amplify the rate of snow melt and ice loss.

Here are a few panels showing what I described above from ECMWF model forecast of the circulation and temperature patterns the next 10 days. Thanks to Levi at Tropicaltidbits.com.

Note the general aspects of the circulation pattern will continue all spring if the Euro and American models are getting it right. And I'm pretty sure they are because they are picking up something huge - a strong jet stream and extreme ocean heat in the north Atlantic and subpolar seas.


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #293 on: March 19, 2017, 04:48:01 PM »
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.
With current temps there, I doubt we are seeing any thinning out in CAA. More like the usual thickening-in I'd say.

Something changed around the 11th. Maybe that the ice is such slush that it is moving and compacting elsewhere with the wind.
Compare the 10th(left) with the 18th(right)

As has  been pointed out by others care has to be taken when interpreting the AMSR charts.
The attached image is IR band 31 https://go.nasa.gov/2nSrmIT of 19th and there is no sign of openings or recent openings in the Parry channel area. South of Banks island the purple hue shows thinner ice (warmer surface) this is what ice looks which has formed in the last weeks. Open water would show in orange in my colour scale setting 227 -273K
Talking about "slush" there has no credibility.
Again the appearance of lowered ice concentration coincides with clouds.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #294 on: March 19, 2017, 04:49:10 PM »
I can't seem to figure out how to capture the image.


Try using the .GIF versions instead of the .PDFs

Here's the one you mention:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northwest-passage/

Here's how the brown bits got there:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/is-the-northwest-passage-freezing-or-melting/
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Red

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #295 on: March 19, 2017, 04:57:30 PM »
I can't seem to figure out how to capture the image.


Try using the .GIF versions instead of the .PDFs

Here's the one you mention:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northwest-passage/

Here's how the brown bits got there:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/is-the-northwest-passage-freezing-or-melting/

Thanks Jim I'll give that  a go next I post.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #296 on: March 19, 2017, 05:34:37 PM »
Talking about "slush" there has no credibility

Ok, slush was probably an overstatement. However, the shape that the ice is in for this time of year has made it more mobile and at the whim of wind and current. When it compacts in one place, the concentration goes down in another. I don't recall saying anything about open water. The concentration went down by a percentage*, which I am sure many including myself thought to be worth mentioning. It shouldn't do that so easily right now. It simply isn't going to hold together once it really comes under any pressure, and then it will be "slush."


* In that one area after the 10th of the month, lasting until the current date.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #297 on: March 19, 2017, 05:34:55 PM »
The retreat south of Novaya Zemlya is caused by winds and is bound to continue given the current forecast, with lows stationed over the Siberian side of the Arctic.

I've just called the maximum on the ASIB, and posted an animation of the ClimateReanalyzer GFS temp anomaly forecast for the coming week:




The U.S. CFS model, the long range extension of the GFS predicts this atmospheric circulation pattern will continue through the spring so that north Siberian temperatures will average well above normal for months. Apparently, the ocean heat patterns are driving this general circulation pattern.

This portends a catastrophic summer for sea ice and Siberian permafrost.


I wonder if enhanced Siberian snowcover is playing a part in this? Vastly more open Arctic Ocean = +++Siberian snowfall, but even when we see temps average much colder than normal over parts of the region as we did last fall, that is derived from anomalously *early* snowcover and not radiative cooling.

Perhaps the feedback resulting in increasing NHEM autumnal snowcover (especially in Eurasia) contributes directly to the ++++anomalies seen over Siberia during spring/summer normally? The insulating and anomalously thick snowpack must mitigate the ability of permafrost to reform, perhaps locking in some of the heat accumulated by the ground during summer as well, resulting in a ready-to-bake northern tier of Russia as soon as the snowcover melts in the spring.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #298 on: March 19, 2017, 05:47:32 PM »
This would by my thinking too bbr2314?

I might even be tempted into thinking that parts of ESS/Kara/Barentsz had some pretty slushy surface conditions over October that may have seeded freezing over summer warmed waters locking that heat in too?

If we lose the W.Siberian snow as early as other years then all it will have served to do is rip the vortex off its keel and throw arctic plunges around the lower latitudes emptying the basin of cold for WAA to replace.

In other words it is another positive feedback even if it involves 'Snow'..........
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Archimid

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #299 on: March 19, 2017, 06:21:16 PM »
Look at the snow cover graphs on ASIG Link: https://www.ccin.ca/home/ccw/snow/current

The first two are the Snow Cover Extent for North America and Eurasia. Notice that they are trending low but within variation.

The second two are of the Snow Water Equivalent, which I interpret as the thickness of the snow pack. Notice that is trending very high.

 Even if there is thicker snow cover, the snow extent favors lower albedo.

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