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Often Distant

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2900 on: July 16, 2017, 11:17:10 PM »


Large regions still look set for certain rapid melt. I expect to see the 2017 curve steepen, and regain a steady lead over 2012. Seems it can take a comfortable lead without steepening. The pulverised smush may also have a hard time compressing in such a way as to block the Nares Strait, leading to extended volume loss from the central basin into the freezing season. Such ice may melt next year rather than this though. Struggling to find a cause for comfort.

« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 11:23:48 PM by Often Distant »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2901 on: July 17, 2017, 12:17:19 AM »
One aspect of this part of the melting season I do not have a good grasp of is the 'practical' relation of sea ice area (SIA) and sea ice extent (SIE).  I know it is 'all about' grid size, but that's 'theory' to me.  In practical terms, can someone show a 'real live' grid with 15% SIA so I can see what it looks like?  For example, when we look at the North Pole to Greenland image, how many grids are along the 30W longitude line? (10s or 1000s?) Off the NE corner of Greenland, are there ice-free grids right now?  (If so, about how many?)
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Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2902 on: July 17, 2017, 01:03:46 AM »
@ Often Distant, Yes as for the quality of the ice from the CAB to Barents, Worldview does not paint a pretty picture - especially compared to 2012. I've included an animation that covers the last 8 days and one comparable day in 2012. I wish there were less clouds, over the last 8 days, so we could get a better idea of how the melt has progressed, but i think the concentration maps that others have posted support the visual evidence we see today on worldview. Compared to 2012 there's an awful lot more open water and 2017's ice, although seemingly equally fractured, is not as thick.

At the end of the animation, notice how in 2012 there appears to be a clear line where concentration goes up such that there is little to no open water.  For 2017 I couldn't find that clear line. In other words, given moderately ice unfriendly weather (perhaps just high enough winds as JD suggests) we could potentially see record melting in all metrics extending all the way to the heart of the CAB - from Barents to Laptev.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2903 on: July 17, 2017, 01:06:32 AM »
But this forecast could change again tomorrow morning. Either way, high pressure over Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and Kara is going to mean bye-bye for a lot of ice.
Thx for the forecasts, despite the highs, I think this circulation with such depression over Greenland is sparing the coup de grace to the entire Pacific side, that really looks like horrible. What would have been of it with a mild persistent dipole, or with a train of moderate storms like last year.
But we' ll see, the weakness of this thin FYI is showing anyway.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2904 on: July 17, 2017, 01:24:38 AM »
JAXA volume just dropped to about 6,000 km3, which is surprisingly low when you consider the JAXA average thickness of Arctic sea ice.
Compare to PIOMAS average thickness.

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2905 on: July 17, 2017, 02:21:15 AM »
How do they calculate average thickness anyway? Would one 10m cube floating in a 6km square cell count as average ice thickness for 36sqkm of ocean of 10m? or is zero ice thickness over the rest of the area summed in? How fine is the resolution they are measuring? Can ridges and chunks fool the sensors when most of the freeboard is much lower? or is is calculated on thermal flux from below, with calibration against past ice thermal conductivity and ocean temp tables?

Do these belong in stupid questions? ???
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2906 on: July 17, 2017, 03:25:50 AM »
How do they calculate average thickness anyway? Would one 10m cube floating in a 6km square cell count as average ice thickness for 36sqkm of ocean of 10m? or is zero ice thickness over the rest of the area summed in? How fine is the resolution they are measuring? Can ridges and chunks fool the sensors when most of the freeboard is much lower? or is is calculated on thermal flux from below, with calibration against past ice thermal conductivity and ocean temp tables?

Do these belong in stupid questions? ???
All That I know is they use actual area instead of extent and divide that into the volume. Someone else maybe can explain better or correct me if I am wrong. Maybe take it to a better thread location, if so.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2907 on: July 17, 2017, 07:59:29 AM »
One week (to yesterday -- click to animate):

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2908 on: July 17, 2017, 08:00:47 AM »
One month:

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2909 on: July 17, 2017, 08:12:32 AM »
ESS 1 week:

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2910 on: July 17, 2017, 08:14:09 AM »
Chukchi / Beaufort 1 week.

Not difficult to imagine where this is likely headed in the next week or 2...

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2911 on: July 17, 2017, 08:23:42 AM »
Many interesting posts this morning, I'm making a bulk response.

Looks like 3,000km or more of fast ice just broke free of NE Greenland by the polynya.
https://go.nasa.gov/2uoILzQ
Nice spotting stackmaster.

For what it's worth, this animation more or less shows the difference in extent for 2016 and 17 for this day (from Polar Portal) A bit rough, but, ie. 2016 extent that 2017 does not have, and 2017 extent that 2016 did not have.
Thanks for this TB. Great animation. 2016 had all the advantage on the Atlantic side, which I believe is relatively easy ice that will go anyway this year. Therefore 2017 has much less chance of stalling like 2016 did.

One aspect of this part of the melting season I do not have a good grasp of is the 'practical' relation of sea ice area (SIA) and sea ice extent (SIE).  I know it is 'all about' grid size, but that's 'theory' to me.  In practical terms, can someone show a 'real live' grid with 15% SIA so I can see what it looks like?  For example, when we look at the North Pole to Greenland image, how many grids are along the 30W longitude line? (10s or 1000s?) Off the NE corner of Greenland, are there ice-free grids right now?  (If so, about how many?)
Tor, this depends on the grid. the distance from the North pole to Kap Moris Jesup (northernmost Greenland point) is 711 km. In NSIDC (25km grid) you get <30 grid points covering this distance. In AMSR2 (3.25km grid) you get >200 grid points. Wipneus' wonderful AMSR2 animations on the home brew thread give a grasp of the level of detail of this grid, almost better than sat images.
You can easily understand the meaning of the coarser grids by toggling sea ice concentration in worldview, one of the layers gives you the 25km grid concentration, there's another giving you a 12 km AMSR concentration, toggle it against the actual images. Check out Nares for example.

JAXA volume just dropped to about 6,000 km3, which is surprisingly low when you consider the JAXA average thickness of Arctic sea ice.
Compare to PIOMAS average thickness.
TT, JAXA volume is quite meaningless at this time of year, and certainly not comparable to PIOMAS. The satellite cannot measure ice thickness in summer, and only partially in winter IIRC.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2912 on: July 17, 2017, 08:34:15 AM »
 oren
TT, JAXA volume is quite meaningless at this time of year, and certainly not comparable to PIOMAS. The satellite cannot measure ice thickness in summer, and only partially in winter IIRC.
Not disputing that in and of itself. What I found interesting was the fact that JAXA  Avg. thickness is so much higher than PIOMAS Avg. thickness, and yet the Volume is lower. I do not know what JAXA claims the area as currently being. Maybe that explains the matter.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2913 on: July 17, 2017, 08:54:26 AM »
Chukchi / Beaufort 1 week.

Not difficult to imagine where this is likely headed in the next week or 2...
gd2, thanks for all of these animations. I believe the whole pacific side about to get cliffed, continuing the ESS crash of the previous week.
I note that the Gyre is moving, slowly pushing ice south into previously open water in the eastern Beaufort, where I'm quite sure it won't last very long.

Stephen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2914 on: July 17, 2017, 02:06:39 PM »
Charctic is broken??
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

or is it just me? and yes, I did try turning it off and turning it on again.  I even cleared the cache.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2915 on: July 17, 2017, 02:10:25 PM »
Charctic is broken??

It works fine for me at the moment.
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numerobis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2916 on: July 17, 2017, 03:45:30 PM »
Hyperion: my understanding of the volume models is that each grid square gets a concentration and thickness.

Concentration * thickness * area of a grid square gives you volume in the grid square. Add it up for all the squares to get total volume.

Concentration * area of a grid square gives you the ice area in the grid square. Add those up to get total ice area.

Total volume / total area is average thickness.

The average is a bit of a funny measure: e.g. If you have two squares at 100% concentration, one at 1 m the other at 1 cm, the average is 50.5 cm. The next day, the average will be 99 cm because one square melted entirely.

But then, it's probably asking too much for any single number to fully encapsulate what we want to know about the state of sea ice. That's why we use colorful pictures instead of words </guilty>

helorime

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2917 on: July 17, 2017, 04:30:54 PM »
Charctic has not been working for me for days.  Not sure why.  I'm glad it is working for others. I thought it might be no longer being supported.

Looking at the climate reanalyzer I expect more massive melting almost all the way around.  Not that rapid melt is not characteristic of mid-July. 

I find myself just watching this summer, mostly in silence......   I keep waiting for our U.S. data sources to fall silent under our new "leadership" as well.  Meanwhile the laws of physics and chemistry remain, politics can't change them.  It is simply a matter whether the chaotic weather patterns leave the arctic lucky or unlucky.  One of these summers we will have another massive record breaker.  Will it be this one?
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2918 on: July 17, 2017, 04:48:58 PM »
JAXA volume just dropped to about 6,000 km3, which is surprisingly low when you consider the JAXA average thickness of Arctic sea ice.
Compare to PIOMAS average thickness.


as we both know and predict for months; more sooner than later facts will topple all models, it has been obvious, still is obvious and will show soon that due to the state of the ice, especially age and thickness of the same, this year can in almost no way be compared to any other melting season before and especially not so when it comes to comparison of SIE.

i'm still looking for what i've overlooked, at least i hope i did, because pacific side will soon collapse and the atlantic side will most probably/certainly retreat to at least usual boundaries, hence there is not much room for error when saying we gonna have to deal with an extraordinary rest of the melting season. still hope that i'm totally off but all your posts just confirm that impression
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2919 on: July 17, 2017, 05:10:42 PM »
On the Atlantic side Winds have turned around to come from the south for the next few days, with a big influx of warm air and moisture, And the ice looks bad .

Here is a region from 85-87.6N north of FJL over the past 2 days as well as 850hPa from WindyTV temps showing twin assaults from Pacific and Atlantic. Windy TV has a 3D globe projection! That makes it much more useful,

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2920 on: July 17, 2017, 05:16:34 PM »
One of these summers we will have another massive record breaker.  Will it be this one?

No, IMHO. 2nd place in extent and area. Only volume has a chance at 1st which, of course, is the most important metric regarding the state of the ice. This year simply cannot be a "massive record breaker".

This winter should be very interesting.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2921 on: July 17, 2017, 06:30:10 PM »
One of these summers we will have another massive record breaker.  Will it be this one?

No, IMHO. 2nd place in extent and area. Only volume has a chance at 1st which, of course, is the most important metric regarding the state of the ice. This year simply cannot be a "massive record breaker".

This winter should be very interesting.

in area we were very close already last year hence it's very well in the reach, i agree about volume, chance is high, nothing is sure of course. as to extent i agree that dispersion could help avoiding but then 2012 at this time of the year nobody expected what happened later either.

right now doubts whether we reach new lows in all tree are well founded and legit but denying chances for things to happen, now that it will take much less for them to happen then back then when they happened, i'd not sign either.
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helorime

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2922 on: July 17, 2017, 07:30:52 PM »
For those having problems with Chartic.  I sent a query and received this reply.  It solved the problem for me  :)

"Thank you for contacting NSIDC. Recent updates to web browsers have made the HTTPS connection the new default. Charctic is not designed to function with this secure protocol. Manually changing the URL to begin with HTTP should solve the issue, if you are able to do so. If your browsers does not allow for this manual configuration to the URL string, please utilize another browser of your choice. Our developers are currently working on a solution and hope to have it in production soon. Thank you for your patience and understanding."
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2923 on: July 17, 2017, 08:04:22 PM »
Manually changing the URL to begin with HTTP
Thanks helorime, that fixed it for me.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2924 on: July 17, 2017, 10:22:16 PM »
Shared Humanity,
No, IMHO. 2nd place in extent and area. Only volume has a chance at 1st which, of course, is the most important metric regarding the state of the ice. This year simply cannot be a "massive record breaker".

This winter should be very interesting.

That is where my primary focus is. First, see how this melt season ends. Second, watch to see how that affects the stormy, I mean, freezing season. Record low volume may set up more problems than expected for the winter ahead. For one thing, I think low volume may delay the transition of seasons.


PS    Looks like the CAA is spitting blood now. It won't hold out much longer.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2925 on: July 17, 2017, 11:07:00 PM »
I think mentioned already, but Kara mush won't last long.
One of the many peripheral areas that are bolstering the extent a little. I think a lot of the peripheral will be gone real soon.
If the Pacific side does not hold up, things could get close.

Quantum

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2926 on: July 17, 2017, 11:15:34 PM »
I think mentioned already, but Kara mush won't last long.
One of the many peripheral areas that are bolstering the extent a little. I think a lot of the peripheral will be gone real soon.
If the Pacific side does not hold up, things could get close.
Actually think some survival is possible in the Baffin bay. There were still icebergs in the Baffin in Late September last year, and the ice looks to be in better shape there this year and the weather has been quite cold recently. Baffin survival is not unprecedented either, used to happen semi regularly in the 80s and before the satellite record.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2927 on: July 17, 2017, 11:33:54 PM »
Every time I look, there are "warm" fronts over the Arctic at 850 mb, and somewhere within these it seems to be raining at any given time. The energy transfer may not be enough to lower extent right away, but is eating at the thickness and concentration from inside the pack in a quite and inconspicuous manner. In the long run, this may be the most impactful of everything that has happened this melt season.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2928 on: July 18, 2017, 02:20:31 AM »
Nares is doing now what the passages of the CAA will be doing very soon.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2929 on: July 18, 2017, 04:10:52 AM »
I think mentioned already, but Kara mush won't last long.
One of the many peripheral areas that are bolstering the extent a little. I think a lot of the peripheral will be gone real soon.
If the Pacific side does not hold up, things could get close.
Actually think some survival is possible in the Baffin bay. There were still icebergs in the Baffin in Late September last year, and the ice looks to be in better shape there this year and the weather has been quite cold recently. Baffin survival is not unprecedented either, used to happen semi regularly in the 80s and before the satellite record.
Yes, I could see that. The ice is thicker there this year. Although the cold SSTs and air temps appear to be due to ice presence and ice melting more than anything else.
The extra thickness right now, could make a difference, although there really was nothing left to speak of there last year by mid Sept. Judging by clicking through Worldview, August-Sept. last year, I'd be surprised if there would be anything much there by mid-Sept. 2017, but maybe that extra thickness now could make a difference.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2017, 04:17:48 AM by Thomas Barlow »

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2930 on: July 18, 2017, 05:35:26 AM »
Actually think some survival is possible in the Baffin bay. There were still icebergs in the Baffin in Late September last year...
Wipneus regional extent graph att; 2016 is the red line. Perhaps some icebergs did survive, but nothing significant.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2931 on: July 18, 2017, 05:49:39 AM »
Troubling low concentration areas appearing on the Atlantic side, according to both Bremen AMSR2 and Wipneus' NSIDC maps (yesterday).

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2932 on: July 18, 2017, 06:08:07 AM »
 greatdying2,
Troubling low concentration areas appearing on the Atlantic side, according to both Bremen AMSR2 and Wipneus' NSIDC maps

And Uni-Hamburg

Sourabh

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2933 on: July 18, 2017, 06:47:40 AM »
Another century drop in IJIS extent.

Just wild thoughts:

2007 seems to have become new normal in case 2017 also ends up close to 2007 and 2016. Similarly, after next record losses event whenever that happens (say 2018  :P :P), 2012 may become new normal.  We will get new record year for benchmarking and the forum will get more energy that Arctic will for further discussion ;) ;)

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2934 on: July 18, 2017, 09:28:19 AM »
I've been noticing those holes on the Atlantic side for a couple of days now, and am quite amazed by it. It must be the effect of the cyclones so far, as that's the kind of weather this part of the Arctic has mostly seen. Very similar to last year.
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Quantum

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2935 on: July 18, 2017, 09:51:31 AM »
Surprised people haven't commented on the upcoming PAC2017

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2936 on: July 18, 2017, 10:38:41 AM »
Surprised people haven't commented on the upcoming PAC2017


And there goes the north polar cell. :o 8) ::) wacc works also on summers, but the result is a bit different than in winter. Hot times ahead.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2017, 10:47:22 AM by Pmt111500 »
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N00bi-Wan

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2937 on: July 18, 2017, 10:51:55 AM »
JAXA Today, 2017-07-18, for our surprise:

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2938 on: July 18, 2017, 11:29:12 AM »
And Uni-Hamburg

I've been noticing those holes on the Atlantic side for a couple of days now, and am quite amazed by it. It must be the effect of the cyclones so far, as that's the kind of weather this part of the Arctic has mostly seen. Very similar to last year.

Wow, that's looking real: Floes and polynyas. There's something going to happen.

liefde

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2939 on: July 18, 2017, 12:18:11 PM »


Isn't it safe to assume we have already seen Global Peak Ice then?
Any of you here predict the extent shows October growth the way it did before 2016? I have serious doubts about that, mainly looking at SST for the last couple of months, set next to previous years. That just cannot be good for ice globally. Plus the brick that broke off Larsen C (and drifts into melthood) will not do much good either, wasn't even there in 2016.
I seriously think we've just experienced Peak Ice. Isn't it strange how this isn't even headline news then? Think about it:
There will never be more ice on the planet, ever again, in human existence, than there was on the 9th of July 2017.

Jontenoy

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2940 on: July 18, 2017, 02:17:14 PM »
<Moved this question to this thread; N.>
« Last Edit: July 18, 2017, 02:47:12 PM by Neven »

liefde

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2941 on: July 18, 2017, 03:31:14 PM »
greatdying2,
Troubling low concentration areas appearing on the Atlantic side, according to both Bremen AMSR2 and Wipneus' NSIDC maps
Just a tad to the East of that big hole NE of Greenland, the SST are highly anomalous; https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-12.20,79.42,3000/loc=5.210,77.748
15.5C there now (South-West of Spitsbergen), so one could guess these holes are from underwater currents that derive from there, and are flowing upwards and setting off the meltdown. Note how the winds (thus waves) are also pretty strong towards the pole there..

Paddy

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2942 on: July 18, 2017, 04:11:11 PM »
@liefde,

There will never be more ice on the planet, ever again, in human existence, than there was on the 9th of July 2017.


I'd bet against this prediction. It's not unlikely that we've seen peak ice extent globally for this year, but with inter-annual variability in both Arctic and Antarctic ice I'm pretty sure it'll go higher than that at some point in the next few years.

Let's see: if 9th July 2017 still stands unbeaten by 01/01/2020, I will donate €20 to a charity of your choice. If it is beaten before then, however, I would like you to give €20 to http://www.ippf.org/. Sound fair?

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2943 on: July 18, 2017, 05:39:32 PM »
After D2, operational and ensemble runs show a cold, stacked TPV pattern taking over centered directly near/over the pole. This pattern is particularly good at slowing/stalling melt as cold air becomes trapped in the vortex and limited advection and clouds keep the developing air mass from modifying too much. The big angry ridge forecasted to develop near the Bering would help stabilize a ridge/trough couplet and could help keep that TPV stable for up to 2 weeks. If that comes to pass, Rob's forecast for Sept. will be looking pretty good.

As a side note, Slater's sea ice forecast seems to have stabilized somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.5M-5M.

Despite low volume, extent may remain elevated unless a serious turnaround in this persistent +NAO/AO pattern occurs, which doesn't look all that likely.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2017, 05:46:40 PM by Csnavywx »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2944 on: July 18, 2017, 05:50:15 PM »
After D2, operational and ensemble runs show a cold, stacked TPV pattern taking over centered directly near/over the pole. This pattern is particularly good at slowing/stalling melt as cold air becomes trapped in the vortex and limited advection and clouds keep the developing air mass from modifying too much. The big angry ridge forecasted to develop near the Bering would help stabilize a ridge/trough couplet and could help keep that TPV stable for up to 2 weeks. If that comes to pass, Rob's forecast for Sept. will be looking pretty good.

As a side note, Slater's sea ice forecast seems to have stabilized somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.5M-5M.

Despite low volume, extent may remain elevated unless a serious turnaround in this persistent +NAO/AO pattern occurs, which doesn't look all that likely.

perhaps i missed something but nobody expects ice over the pole to melt anyways, hence impact on melting season results will be minor to none and if there is cold air rotating over the pole i would suspect that the warm air is banging on those doors all around that vortex which then is not good and as i understand things help melting exactly in places where it will count, in the middle between periphery that melts anyways and high arctic where it won't melt anyways (this year)

don't hesitate to make me better understand in case my interpretation of what you wrote is wrong ;)
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jplotinus

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2945 on: July 18, 2017, 06:58:02 PM »
It appears to me there is "piggy-bank" ice in the Beaufort that will help 2017 keep its place as a top contender for lowest September sie minimum. Compared to the three prior years of 2014-2016, there's a greater extent in the Beaufort this year, but the ice there appears poised to disappear sooner rather than later based on eyeballing this worldview compilation:
« Last Edit: July 18, 2017, 09:16:31 PM by jplotinus »

Steven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2946 on: July 18, 2017, 08:42:27 PM »
Latest weekly MODIS 7-day composite image from Environment Canada:



For comparison, here is the same period (closest available dates) in 2016:



and here are the corresponding images for 2015, 2014, 2013, and 2012.

liefde

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2947 on: July 18, 2017, 09:04:42 PM »
It's not unlikely that we've seen peak ice extent globally for this year, but with inter-annual variability in both Arctic and Antarctic ice I'm pretty sure it'll go higher than that at some point in the next few years.

Let's see: if 9th July 2017 still stands unbeaten by 01/01/2020, I will donate €20 to a charity of your choice. If it is beaten before then, however, I would like you to give €20 to http://www.ippf.org/. Sound fair?
OK, sounds fair ;-) I hope you're right, but I'm trying to be realistic. The fat years are over, if you ask me.
Together with aforementioned PAC2017, coming weekend in the Arctic it's anomaly-time:


And even worse next week in the Antarctic;

DavidR

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2948 on: July 18, 2017, 11:31:42 PM »


Isn't it safe to assume we have already seen Global Peak Ice then?
Any of you here predict the extent shows October growth the way it did before 2016? I have serious doubts about that, mainly looking at SST for the last couple of months, set next to previous years. That just cannot be good for ice globally. Plus the brick that broke off Larsen C (and drifts into melthood) will not do much good either, wasn't even there in 2016.
I seriously think we've just experienced Peak Ice. Isn't it strange how this isn't even headline news then? Think about it:
There will never be more ice on the planet, ever again, in human existence, than there was on the 9th of July 2017.

I  doubt  very  much that this prediction will last  past October this year.  2016 was hottest or second hottest on record across the arctic from Sep to  Dec and in the top  5 from June - Aug.  This year is unlikely  to be anywhere near that hot and I  would expect  the October peak to be much  closer to  normal than last year. 

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #2949 on: July 19, 2017, 12:48:35 AM »
Latest weekly MODIS 7-day composite image from Environment Canada:

I've converted this to an animation to enable easier comparison to 2012. What strikes me is how different the two years are. 2012 seems to have a lot more ice (though I know extent metrics say otherwise), but also has areas of much lower concentration inside the pack on the Pacific side.