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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #300 on: March 19, 2017, 06:27:41 PM »
That Snow Water Equivalent graphs has been trending high for as long as I can remember. I'm not sure, but I think there's something wrong with it.
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #301 on: March 19, 2017, 07:25:22 PM »
I don't think so Neven, the increase is consistent with the models and warmer/wetter atmospheric circulation moving further northward
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Red

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #302 on: March 19, 2017, 07:51:16 PM »
I don't think so Neven, the increase is consistent with the models and warmer/wetter atmospheric circulation moving further northward
And windier, the denser it's packed the more water it will represent when melted.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #303 on: March 19, 2017, 09:32:10 PM »
I don't think so Neven, the increase is consistent with the models and warmer/wetter atmospheric circulation moving further northward
Agreed, you can see a map of anomalies as well:


crandles

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #304 on: March 19, 2017, 09:46:22 PM »
That purple y shape seems a permanent fixture. I would suspect a period with no data for that area.

Agree warmer conditions, more moisture in atmosphere, heavier precipitation seems pretty well established.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #305 on: March 19, 2017, 09:56:14 PM »
I wonder if enhanced Siberian snowcover is playing a part in this?
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Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #306 on: March 19, 2017, 10:00:44 PM »
I don't think so Neven, the increase is consistent with the models and warmer/wetter atmospheric circulation moving further northward
And windier, the denser it's packed the more water it will represent when melted.
I have to agree with this line of thought.  For now it is Warm Arctic, Cold Continents....complete with snow.  I do not see new ice sheets in our immediate future.


Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #307 on: March 19, 2017, 10:15:02 PM »
That purple y shape seems a permanent fixture. I would suspect a period with no data for that area.

Which is why I don't trust that Snow Water Equivalent graph. There's no way there's so much snow in the Himalayas, all of the time.

Of course, there's more precipitation, and so more snow extent and snow depth, but not so much to make that trend line get off the charts. There are quite a few zones with negative anomalies as well.

But, anyway, it's a conclusion I reached last year or the year before. I may be wrong.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #308 on: March 19, 2017, 10:48:55 PM »
@Neven
It might be worth looking into, as there have been so many severe avalanches in that area lately. I would google it myself, but I am on the way out to run errands.

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #309 on: March 19, 2017, 11:37:43 PM »
@Neven
It might be worth looking into, as there have been so many severe avalanches in that area lately. I would google it myself, but I am on the way out to run errands.

Yes, it might be worth looking into, but that purple area where the Himalayas are, has been on that map for as long as I can remember.

And another funny thing: Here in Austria they say there have been more avalanches in the Alps this year, because snowfall was below average. But I don't know if that's true.

Either way, whether there's a HUGE Snow Water Equivalent or not, I'm quite sure that it will all melt quite quickly. And that's the bottom line.
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Red

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #310 on: March 20, 2017, 12:08:54 AM »
That purple y shape seems a permanent fixture. I would suspect a period with no data for that area.


Which is why I don't trust that Snow Water Equivalent graph. There's no way there's so much snow in the Himalayas, all of the time.

Of course, there's more precipitation, and so more snow extent and snow depth, but not so much to make that trend line get off the charts. There are quite a few zones with negative anomalies as well.

But, anyway, it's a conclusion I reached last year or the year before. I may be wrong.

Not sure if this is any help, the paper is paywalled, however it may shed some light on the subject of snow water equivalent. The locations of the test sites may play a bigger roll +/- in our new climate state then they traditionally have.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425711003166Abstract
The key variable describing global seasonal snow cover is snow water equivalent (SWE). However, reliable information on the hemispheric scale variability of SWE is lacking because traditional methods such as interpolation of ground-based measurements and stand-alone algorithms applied to space-borne observations are highly uncertain with respect to the spatial distribution of snow mass and its evolution. In this paper, an algorithm assimilating synoptic weather station data on snow depth with satellite passive microwave radiometer data is applied to produce a 30-year-long time-series of seasonal SWE for the northern hemisphere. This data set is validated using independent SWE reference data from Russia, the former Soviet Union, Finland and Canada. The validation of SWE time-series indicates overall strong retrieval performance with root mean square errors below 40 mm for cases when SWE < 150 mm. Retrieval uncertainty increases when SWE is above this threshold. The SWE estimates are also compared with results obtained by a typical stand-alone satellite passive microwave algorithm. This comparison demonstrates the benefits of the newly developed assimilation approach. Additionally, the trends and inter-annual variability of northern hemisphere snow mass during the era of satellite passive microwave measurements are shown.

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #311 on: March 20, 2017, 09:21:28 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) shows following anomalies for Arctic until next Monday. Kara, Laptev and ESS warmest. Also ice seems to be pretty fragmented between Svalbard and North Pole after non-stop export at high speed.

dosibl

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #312 on: March 20, 2017, 03:29:06 PM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #313 on: March 20, 2017, 03:48:49 PM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?


5 fingers worth to start with? Not necessarily in order of time or importance!

1. How soon melt ponds and/or open water hang around in the Beaufort Sea this year. Things started very early last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/

2. Ditto the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea

3. Ditto the Laptev and East Siberian Seas

4. How many (and how deep, warm, wet) spring cyclones spin around the Arctic Ocean

5. How the snow melt progresses across Canada, Alaska and Siberia

Next please!
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #314 on: March 20, 2017, 04:43:20 PM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?


5 fingers worth to start with? Not necessarily in order of time or importance!

1. How soon melt ponds and/or open water hang around in the Beaufort Sea this year. Things started very early last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/



Suscrbe all points, emphasizing this one because for the time being weather is being favorable to Beaufort sea ice (relative to last year) .All can change in April obviously

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #315 on: March 20, 2017, 04:49:42 PM »
Hi Dosibl .. I would take a look at Cryosphere Today .. the site no longer updates , but the 'comparison' feature allows you to look at and compare the ice cover on any date/s in the satellite era .
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #316 on: March 20, 2017, 04:58:26 PM »
the plunge begins:

NSIDC SIE daily values

2017,    03,  12,     14.403
2017,    03,  13,     14.370
2017,    03,  14,     14.424
2017,    03,  15,     14.407
2017,    03,  16,     14.273
2017,    03,  17,     14.242
2017,    03,  18,     14.178
2017,    03,  19,     14.180
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #317 on: March 20, 2017, 05:31:06 PM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?


5 fingers worth to start with? Not necessarily in order of time or importance!

1. How soon melt ponds and/or open water hang around in the Beaufort Sea this year. Things started very early last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/

2. Ditto the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea

3. Ditto the Laptev and East Siberian Seas

4. How many (and how deep, warm, wet) spring cyclones spin around the Arctic Ocean

5. How the snow melt progresses across Canada, Alaska and Siberia

Next please!

I'd add:
  • state of the ice at the North Pole (watch MODIS)
  • area and extent of the various regions: comparing this year with past years (regularly click on the several Graphs Page tabs)
  • develop a specialty of your own! (weather? watching the web cams?, expeditions?, glaciers?)
  • watch ice export through (or melting within) Nares Strait (because I find this manageable) [P.S.: Nares export often starts in June.]

In 3 months we'll start looking at melt ponds in the Central Arctic Basin (CAB) and wonder when the Northern Passage and NW Passage will open. Oh yes, and when will the news media notice how bad things are getting.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 06:34:38 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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theoldinsane

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #318 on: March 20, 2017, 05:52:55 PM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

After a couple of years as mainly a lurker in this amazing forum I have hopefully learned something. My take is this:

1 Do expect the unexpected (upside or downside or flat) and don´t compare to previous years

2 Don´t do any predictions about the minimum before July

3 Realise that the Arctic ice is in a very VERY bad shape compare to 20 years ago (or even many thousands year ago)

Some says it´s all about the weather, but if the declining Arctic ice is the culprit of the weather then there is a viscious circle caused by humans emissions of GHG. There is natural variance but those are getting bigger as GHG emissions continues if I got it right.

https://hubpages.com/literature/The-Two-Degree-World

So it can happen that this years minimum will show up as the 5:th or 6:th or 7:th lowest as well as a Blue Ocean Event. I don´t know. Only time will tell.

This is both exiting and very VERY scary IMHO
 

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #319 on: March 20, 2017, 06:08:14 PM »
dosibl, the most telling areas will be the Beaufort as already been said, compared to the last few years to see wether it's early or late, and the Barents/Svalbard/Atlantic front on a qualitative basis. And not on a daily basis, PIOMAS.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #320 on: March 20, 2017, 06:11:40 PM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.
Lots of good suggestions from others.

My favorites:

Sea surface temperatures
General dispersion and concentration
Circulation and transport of ice in the pack
Cloud cover and albedo
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #321 on: March 20, 2017, 06:12:24 PM »

2 Don´t do any predictions about the minimum before July


I was just about to do that and happily forget asif totally after that.

I'll try to follow the spring in the big Siberian/Canadian river areas and later hoping to see some ice breaker save Santa Claus from drowning.
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #322 on: March 20, 2017, 06:15:15 PM »
Hi All
This is my first blog on your wonderful site which I have been watching for nearly a year.
Today NASA announced that Greeland and Antarctic are losing 400 gigatons of ice / year. I have just calculated this as giving 2.38 mm / year height increase. Water thermal expansion + glacial and other surface ice would be in addition to this (also aquafier surface pumping). Does this seem a bit high ?

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #323 on: March 20, 2017, 06:26:30 PM »
Jontenoy, this thread is for the Arctic sea ice melting season specifically. You need to ask the question elsewhere in the Greenland or Antarctica boards.
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LRC1962

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #324 on: March 20, 2017, 08:13:46 PM »
One note of caution. Even if the melt season turns out that there is not a great melt off and therefore a conclusion could be reached that the melt season was too cold or not right for melting, the ice is still in very bad shape. On top of that the winter months are getting so much warmer and stormier that what ice hangs around and actually grows is not in very good condition. In conclusion, the Arctic ice that is there is on life support and unless we humans get our act together, the rest of the earths systems are going to change so much that the normal will not be as it was even 20 years ago.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #325 on: March 20, 2017, 08:28:09 PM »
dosibl, the most telling areas will be the Beaufort

this is based on the past while it's exactly possible that the final attack on sea-ice from now on can (will) come from any (unexpected) side and chances are high that we're in for more surprises.

what i'm trying to say, sorry if i got that wrong, is, that even should the beaufort be ice-coverd in may for once (not saying it will) most ice can be eliminated from the the atlantic side and exported down fram while at he same time a bit of garlic press down CAA et voilà, almost nothing left while the rest (in this example that would be beaufort) will melt out between may and september anyways. so the key is the CAB all above 80 degrees north, the more of that goes, the lower the minimum. IMO there is no doubt that we wont' even see any kind of "ARMS" or other significant reminders below 75 degrees north this year. game on, let's see.

this is just my take on it, not saying it will or has to be, just drawing a picture (like every year) and after all
a lot became true in the past ;)

i'm looking forward to the extreme takes of "BBR" LOL.

the season will be (already is) very interesting in any case
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #326 on: March 20, 2017, 08:58:16 PM »
That purple y shape seems a permanent fixture. I would suspect a period with no data for that area.


Which is why I don't trust that Snow Water Equivalent graph. There's no way there's so much snow in the Himalayas, all of the time.

Of course, there's more precipitation, and so more snow extent and snow depth, but not so much to make that trend line get off the charts. There are quite a few zones with negative anomalies as well.

But, anyway, it's a conclusion I reached last year or the year before. I may be wrong.

This graph purportedly excludes mountain snows:



I definitely agree it is difficult to ascertain the veracity of those Himalayan purples but a part of me thinks it is not so unlikely; it seems that any region that has sufficient latitude or elevation is now seeing more general ++snow anomalies, so perhaps with the sheer height of the Himalayas, they are a natural bulwark against AGW in that even as the snow line may or may not be rising, the amount of snow falling *above* the line is now increasing seemingly on an annual basis.

It is very important to note that *if* that is the case, changing snowcover's impact on global albedo becomes much more drastic. Increased NHEM fall snowcover is impactful on albedo but its implications aren't nearly as drastic as a blob of anomalous snowcover at a relatively low latitude that persists through spring and possibly summer. Even if the % of the Himalayas that are covered in July or August increases from 5-10% to 20-30%, that is a very sizable amount of solar input that is now being thrown off at the height of NHEM summer.

I am straying a bit far here but I wonder if the above is linked to the failure of the QBO... if there is any major wildcard besides the Arctic that has not yet been identified, I do believe it is the Himalayan snowpack, and with its location relatively close to the Equator, the impacts of changing snowfall on the planet's highest mountain range have the potential to be *very* sizable.

I am adding in the below which I found from a paper indicating summer extent is indeed increasing across the Western Himalayas quite dramatically while falling slightly over central/eastern (for large net gain). Any additional studies/links would be much appreciated!

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260939503_11-Year_Variability_of_Summer_Snow_Cover_Extent_over_Himalayas

Snow is a component of the cryosphere which has played an important role in Earth energy balance. Northern hemisphere snow cover extent (SCE) has steadily decreased since 1980 and in recently the trend of SCE is sharply decreased. Because Himalaya region's shows most significant changes except for the Arctic, we analyzed this region for SCE. We used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow product from 2001 to 2011 in august. Analysis was made by considering some conditions (region, elevation, longitude and climate) which can affect the changes in SCE. The entire SCE in Himalaya for 11 years has steadily increased(+55,098 km2). Trends for SCE in western region has increased(+77,781km2), But trend for central and eastern have decreased -3,453 km2, -19,230km2, respectively. According to elevation increases, the ratio of snow in each study area is increased. In 30°N~35°N SCE shows increased trend, 27°N~28°N shows decreased trend. In tundra climate, trends for SCE are similar to regional analysis. whereas the result in tropical climate's trend was increased. these performed result shows different side for change of SCE depending on each condition. The result of this study were similar to the rapid decline of the northern hemisphere SCE area in recent. The result of this study can be used to help management to water budget in Central-Asia country located to Himalayas.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 09:13:56 PM by bbr2314 »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #327 on: March 20, 2017, 09:36:57 PM »
One note of caution. Even if the melt season turns out that there is not a great melt off and therefore a conclusion could be reached that the melt season was too cold or not right for melting, the ice is still in very bad shape. On top of that the winter months are getting so much warmer and stormier that what ice hangs around and actually grows is not in very good condition. In conclusion, the Arctic ice that is there is on life support and unless we humans get our act together, the rest of the earths systems are going to change so much that the normal will not be as it was even 20 years ago.

I wanted to reply to this but wasn't sure about doing so on this thread, for fear of derailing it, so I did so on the Open Thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1884.250.html#lastPost


« Last Edit: March 21, 2017, 01:44:00 AM by Tigertown »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #328 on: March 20, 2017, 10:53:14 PM »
..... unless we humans get our act together, the rest of the earths systems are going to change so much that the normal will not be as it was even 20 years ago.

i mean this serious and just adding without wanting to be negative more than what i really believe, that said, we're beyond that already. even if we could stop pollution NOW immediately, the sh....t is already hitting the fan, it's too late to avoid it while we can and should reduce the worst to the unavoidable bad which means that there is good reason to make any effort we can ( has to start on individual level, person by person changing life style, priorities and attitude ) to reduce our environmental footprints, else it could be worse than even we believe.

so to make this clear, i agree with what you're heading at, it's just important to call things by their real name and in this case the real name is that we cannot revert the process in time, not in theory and by no means in practice but we can do our best which of course we as mankind are lightyears away of doing unfortunately.
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dosibl

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #329 on: March 20, 2017, 11:42:16 PM »
Thanks for the tips, plenty of things to keep an eye on.

Definitely interested in watching the Beaufort sea, comparing March 20th across the past few years shows how stark the difference is.

charles_oil

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #330 on: March 20, 2017, 11:53:50 PM »

I think those three graphs definitely qualify for a WOW ... buckle up ... response !


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #331 on: March 21, 2017, 12:13:03 AM »
A better look at the Laptev.
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE

Michael J

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #332 on: March 21, 2017, 12:26:13 AM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

This is my fourth year and my advice is don't judge. It only takes a few weeks of the right/wrong kind of weather to turn a bad/good year into a good/bad year.

Also even the seasoned observers get surprised, over the short time I've been watching it the melt has changed. In the first year it was all melt ponds and large cracks the the ice cap seemed solid. Now (from a distance) it is more mush and can flow with the winds and currents.

Cate

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #333 on: March 21, 2017, 12:36:36 AM »
New post today from Robertscribbler: "Frailest Ever Winter Sea Ice Facing a Cruel, Cruel Summer."

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/20/frailest-ever-winter-sea-ice-facing-a-cruel-cruel-summer/

Hyperion

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #334 on: March 21, 2017, 01:41:53 AM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

My quick and off the cuff list might be as follows:
1: What real world empirical  data can we trust regarding the state of the halocline. -once the besieged lower salinity surface waters are exported and corrupted by salt enrichment from the winter there can be no winter refreeze.
2: How much water vapour is smoking in to the zone on unforeseen atmospheric circulation systemic reformations. - as it phase transitions from vapour to liquid or even more so importantly from liquid to solid it emits photons in all directions, most importantly downwards, that are precisely the frequency for the reverse transition of water molecules in the reverse homily to elevate their energy level via a melt or boil.
3: How much export transport of ice out of the basin is current and ongoing, what salt/ water ratio is part of this equation,  with implications obvious for (1)

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romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #335 on: March 21, 2017, 09:23:30 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) shows following anomalies for Arctic until next Tuesday.
Although anomalies will go down next week, Kara, Laptev and ESS remain warmer than usual.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #336 on: March 21, 2017, 12:17:39 PM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

My quick and off the cuff list might be as follows:
1: What real world empirical  data can we trust regarding the state of the halocline. -once the besieged lower salinity surface waters are exported and corrupted by salt enrichment from the winter there can be no winter refreeze.
2: How much water vapour is smoking in to the zone on unforeseen atmospheric circulation systemic reformations. - as it phase transitions from vapour to liquid or even more so importantly from liquid to solid it emits photons in all directions, most importantly downwards, that are precisely the frequency for the reverse transition of water molecules in the reverse homily to elevate their energy level via a melt or boil.
3: How much export transport of ice out of the basin is current and ongoing, what salt/ water ratio is part of this equation,  with implications obvious for (1)
I have to agree totally with this list, and I had not considered the implications of ice export for the fresh-water lens before.

I'll be watching mostly the DMI 80N, and the reasons Hyperion gave are the reasons I'll be watching.

crandles

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #337 on: March 21, 2017, 02:16:13 PM »
New post today from Robertscribbler: "Frailest Ever Winter Sea Ice Facing a Cruel, Cruel Summer."

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/20/frailest-ever-winter-sea-ice-facing-a-cruel-cruel-summer/

Neven and the sea ice observers over at The Arctic Sea Ice blog produced the following graph depicting what is all-too-likely to be a 2017 in which the sea ice extent maximum just hit another consecutive annual record low:

(2015, 2016 and 2017 were three consecutive record low winter maximum years for sea ice extent in a row. Image by Deeenngee and The Arctic Sea Ice Blog.)

Neven, who is one of the world’s top sea ice analysts,

;D

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #338 on: March 21, 2017, 02:36:33 PM »
I had to laugh too.  ;)
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #339 on: March 21, 2017, 03:04:58 PM »
SMOS 18th-20th
CLICK IMAGE TO ACTIVATE

Ajpope85

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #340 on: March 21, 2017, 03:43:59 PM »
SMOS 18th-20th
CLICK IMAGE TO ACTIVATE


Is what is going on around the north pole noise?

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #341 on: March 21, 2017, 03:46:27 PM »
I had to laugh too.  ;)

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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #342 on: March 21, 2017, 03:55:14 PM »
Isn't anybody going to cheer me up?

I've been stunned, through re-freeze, by the scale of the departure from an 'old' Arctic winter and now that most of the basin is 'visible' again on Sat I am further stunned by 'the look' of the ice!

Tell me I have it all wrong and the ice is all 'good ice' and not pathetic warm stuff that shatters into teeny bits when stressed?

When I look at the peripheral areas they are awash with swirls of froth from melt and we should not be even melting yet?

Persuade me ,anybody!, that I have it all wrong and that any high melt/high export behaviours over May/June will not leave us in a lot of trouble?

Reassure me that even if the basin soaks up nearly twice the energy it did last year we will not be blighted by extreme weathers over Autumn/early winter!

Anybody?
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #343 on: March 21, 2017, 04:22:59 PM »
Isn't anybody going to cheer me up?

I've been stunned, through re-freeze, by the scale of the departure from an 'old' Arctic winter and now that most of the basin is 'visible' again on Sat I am further stunned by 'the look' of the ice!

Tell me I have it all wrong and the ice is all 'good ice' and not pathetic warm stuff that shatters into teeny bits when stressed?

When I look at the peripheral areas they are awash with swirls of froth from melt and we should not be even melting yet?

Persuade me ,anybody!, that I have it all wrong and that any high melt/high export behaviours over May/June will not leave us in a lot of trouble?

Reassure me that even if the basin soaks up nearly twice the energy it did last year we will not be blighted by extreme weathers over Autumn/early winter!

Anybody?

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #344 on: March 21, 2017, 04:41:06 PM »
A better look at the Laptev

Quite so. The Suomi "Nighttime Imagery" is a useful addition to the Worldview toolkit.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #345 on: March 21, 2017, 05:33:22 PM »
The elephant is all mashed up, and it seems a significant part of the PIOMAS "blob" will cross the point of no return this coming week. On the other hand, eyeballing Hycom it seems the Beaufort will be thickening/compacting, and that peripheral extent might benefit from dispersion.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #346 on: March 21, 2017, 08:06:38 PM »
About 4-5 days from now the Arctic basin will most likely suffer a huge damage as a very favorable pattern for sea ice transport to the Atlantic "death row" will set up and linger for several days (see attached figure showing ECMWF 12z op run for the worst moment at +168h from now). Both GFS and ECMWF agrees about this solution even if ECMWFs solution is more severe for the sea ice.

We will most likely see thick ice make an exit to the Atlantic "death zone" which should give the upcoming melting season a decent start.

Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits/Lewi Cowan


seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #347 on: March 21, 2017, 08:30:10 PM »
Thanks LMV.
Too see the Atlantic currents break thru the ice is going to be an spectacle, a lot of thick ice already sitting on top of the Spitsbergen current for instance.
The forecast shows also high pressure system wanting to stay over Beaufort, let us see whether that realizes and especially persists, in which case it would be dangerous to Beaufort sea ice in April.

Buddy

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #348 on: March 21, 2017, 08:31:39 PM »
We will most likely see thick ice make an exit to the Atlantic "death zone" which should give the upcoming melting season a decent start.

A decent start from a record low level = bad news....... :-\
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #349 on: March 21, 2017, 09:12:10 PM »
Thanks LMV.
Too see the Atlantic currents break thru the ice is going to be an spectacle, a lot of thick ice already sitting on top of the Spitsbergen current for instance.
The forecast shows also high pressure system wanting to stay over Beaufort, let us see whether that realizes and especially persists, in which case it would be dangerous to Beaufort sea ice in April.

I'm concerned about H.P. systems and what we saw of them as we entered into sunspot min last time around? If H.P. builds across Russia , as it did in 2010, then this could link into Beaufort ,across ESS, leaving Atlantic lows running into Barentsz/Kara setting up high export off the end of the Trans Arctic Drift and into Fram whilst Beaufort roasts?

If we are also in the market for a return of the 'Perfect Melt Storm synoptic then we are done! large areas of the basin open up to sun by the start of July??? Does not sit well in my kind of mind!!!
KOYAANISQATSI

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