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Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #600 on: April 04, 2017, 12:57:19 PM »
The ice keeps pushing back against the open water southwest of Novaya Zemlya. Given the wind forecast I think it's going to ice over again, so no super-unprecedented on that score. But we'll have to see what happens after that (that region only opened after the first week of May for years like 2011 and 2012).
Nice having sunlight back to see what's actually going on.

Same time frame in Worldview suggests dispersion to me rather than any sort of freezing.

It's a combination of dispersion, winds pushing the ice back to where it came from, and then leads freezing over with a very thin layer of ice. Here, I'm interested in the visual power of the satellite image of open water at such an unprecedented early time in the Kara Sea. It doesn't look like that if even a veneer of ice is covering the area.

But that doesn't mean all is dandy in the Kara.
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Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #601 on: April 04, 2017, 01:48:47 PM »
Pardon the pun, but watching the ease of ice transport in some of the preceding animations is truly chilling. Whilst there are still Freezing Degree Days getting clocked up in the High Arctic, it does seem a case of "too little, too late".

The fact that, purely in terms of extent, the 2017 melt season appears to have somewhat stalled at the moment, simply serves as a reminder of what transpired during 2012. If one ranks the March, April and May NSIDC monthly averages, 2012 currently occupies 14th, 20th and 13th lowest positions respectively. However, the horror show only really began in June of that year. Given that the present extent is nearly 1 million sq kms lower than that recorded for the equivalent date in 2012 should certainly give cause for apprehension.

One of the (many) ways of graphically illustrating what has been happening to Arctic sea ice is to display the number of days in each year that either has been, or indeed still is, amongst the lowest three recorded for the date.

Possibly the best example - certainly the best I can think of - is to show how 2007 has fared. According to the inhabitants of flat-land, that year was supposed to represent the nadir for Arctic sea ice. A major strand of the "logic" - and I use that word very advisedly - behind this hypothesis, was that the September minimum had increased in each of the two following years. Using NSIDC average monthly values, the September figures for Arctic sea ice extent were...

2007 = 4.32 millions sq kms
2008 = 4.73 millions sq kms
2009 = 5.39 millions sq kms

So, there is no arguing with the fact that 2009 > 2008 > 2007. The format of that inequality, allied with the fact that there had been anomalously high temperatures recorded in the Arctic during the 40's, had been used to peddle the myth that 2008 and 2009 heralded the fact that the turning point had been passed in an ~ 60 year cycle. This immediately gained uncritical acceptance in flat-land, as the average climate change sceptic wouldn't know what genuine scepticism was if it jumped up and bit them on the arse.

However, the following inequalities between NSIDC average September extents somehow seemed to have been overlooked...

1983 > 1982 > 1981
1992 > 1991 > 1990
2001 > 2000 > 1999

(Incidentally, the increase between 1990 and 1992 was quarter of a million sq kms greater than the much-vaunted 2007 - 2009 "recovery".)

{Of course, things have moved on since them, and their current meme is that the Arctic was effectively ice free nearly 100 years ago. There were so many obvious flaws in the original 60-year cycle meme, that even committee members in the House and the Senate would have had trouble keeping a straight face.}

Anyway, getting back to 2007, according to the JAXA/IJIS/ADS database, by the 31st December that year, it had registered the following daily figures...

153 days were lowest for that date
104 days were second lowest, and
105 days were third lowest. (That adds up to 362, and the other 3 days were 4th lowest.)

However, as at today, the equivalent numbers for 2007 read as follows...

Lowest: 4 days
2nd lowest: 70 days
3rd lowest: 46 days

The demise of 2007 from its position of preeminence can be seen in the attached chart. The first column shows how 2007 stood at year-end, and the subsequent columns show the decline at the end of each of the following years. The final column tracks in near-real-time as 2017 data arrives. So far this year, there have only been 8 "lowest 3" instances remaining from 2007. Each of them has been surpassed in 2017, with 2 dropping to 3rd lowest, and a further 6 dropping to 4th. As the 2017 melt season gets into gear, it will be "interesting" to see how much further 2007 will sink.


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sic transit gloria mundi
 

iceman

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #602 on: April 04, 2017, 01:55:44 PM »
JO, what "extent impacts" were you expecting?
<snippage>
<more snippage>
Will we see a rapid cliff once some condition is met because the ice is too thin to resist?
<and even more snippage>
I expect a cliff in 2-3 weeks as effective received insolation pushes past an average effective level of 3 KWH/Day/M2 at 85N and below. (Incident is already much higher). When that happens, the Barentsz, the Bering, the Kara, the Okhotsk and parts of Baffin and Hudson's bays will see dramatic melt backs.  We could see a solid week of century drops.

Plausible but not the most likely scenario, I think.  Area/extent anomalies are already quite low in some regions - Bering and especially Okhotsk - that typically contribute to a rapid decline during April.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #603 on: April 04, 2017, 03:05:57 PM »
What melting season?

Sea ice extent at highest since March 17.
Sea ice volume (jaxa-amsr2-volume.png) going through the roof - nearly 2,000 km3 - in the last week.

Back to Nostradamus for inspiration?
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #604 on: April 04, 2017, 03:07:11 PM »
The way the ice is getting dispersed and spread out, it is just being set up for the drop. It is getting very close to time for insolation to start really going to work. The current extent numbers do not reflect the season ahead. The crash is on the way.

P.S. Here is what is keeping the extent up. jd has covered the Barents quite adequately and how the same scenario is playing out there. Neither side can hold out perpetually.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2017, 03:22:02 PM by Tigertown »
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Jim Williams

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #605 on: April 04, 2017, 04:28:39 PM »
What melting season?

Sea ice extent at highest since March 17.
Sea ice volume (jaxa-amsr2-volume.png) going through the roof - nearly 2,000 km3 - in the last week.

Back to Nostradamus for inspiration?

That is so great to hear. We have dodged a bullet, and need to fix our pollution now. A second chance.
On the other hand ... it's not true volume is through the roof.
And sea-ice extent is the lowest on record for this date.
Back to the Wizard of Oz for inspiration?
I'd vote Neverending Story for inspiration.

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #606 on: April 04, 2017, 06:57:19 PM »
Pardon the pun, but watching the ease of ice transport in some of the preceding animations is truly chilling. Whilst there are still Freezing Degree Days getting clocked up in the High Arctic, it does seem a case of "too little, too late".

One of the (many) ways of graphically illustrating what has been happening to Arctic sea ice is to display the number of days in each year that either has been, or indeed still is, amongst the lowest three recorded for the date. Possibly the best example - certainly the best I can think of - is to show how 2007 has fared. ... ... The demise of 2007 from its position of preeminence can be seen in the attached chart. The first column shows how 2007 stood at year-end, and the subsequent columns show the decline at the end of each of the following years.  ..." [QUOTE ENDS]

>>

It would be interesting to seem similar graph using 2012 as the base year, since it would produce much larger red columns of the firsts... For the red-colour-pole-post, a major change occurred in 2012 and that would give us a slightly different 5-year (short climate period standing) with more prominent comparisons to the red (the previous worsts)... Anyone able to get hands on that?

I used the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite readings to develop a different kind of graph: the-melting-days-remaining where the difference in sea ice area reduction from one day to the next was deducted. The remaining sea ice area during the latter date was then divided by that calculated difference figure of melting (sea ice area lost between the two days) to obtain the number of days melting would continue at that point (in an ideal, linear world of melting) for all that remaining sea ice to melt away completely.

There were times when F-17 reduction rate was sufficient to finish the job before end of summer, or September. In latter years this grew shorter. It was a somewhat arcane identifier how likely the sea ice was to melt away, but good enough to do statistical comparisons on-year-on year basis on sea ice area (= my industrial secret in sea ice area forecasting). 

This model with F-17 data did not account for decreasing insolation (like reducing insolation and temperature towards the end of summer). However were a total melt likely to occur the days remaining would continue to shrink steadily the longer. But then this F-17 satellite Trumped and I don't know if there is F-18 broadcasting anything else but the Republican propaganda nowadays...
« Last Edit: April 04, 2017, 07:18:32 PM by VeliAlbertKallio »
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Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #607 on: April 04, 2017, 08:38:08 PM »
It would be interesting to seem similar graph using 2012 as the base year, since it would produce much larger red columns of the firsts...

As requested, below is an alternate version showing how 2012 has fared. Thus far in the current year, 2012 has only had four 2nd lowest and four 3rd lowest places - all in the range 30th January until 6th of February. In each case, 2017 had a lower value.

The large swathe of lowest positions held by 2012 occurs between 25th July and 15th October (incl), so there cannot be any change in these numbers for about another 16 weeks.

The progression of the actual 2012 "lowest 3" numbers is as follows...

posn.   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   current
lowest   131   131   131   130   83   83
second   52    49    48    43    61    57
third..    34    35    33    31    31    31
                     
total      217   215   212   204   175   171

It can therefore be easily seen that 2013, 2014 and 2015 had little impact upon the 2012 figures, but that 2016 most certainly did.


An additional diagram has also been attached. This shows how each year from 2004-2015 has changed between...
a) the end of 2015
b) the end of 2016
c) the day number shown for 2017

For 2016, it is obvious that only variants b) & c) exist. Similarly, only c) exists for 2017.

Basically, that diagram uses the status as at the end of 2015 as its starting point. It then shows the effect that 2016 had, and 2017 continues to have, upon the number of "lowest 3" positions held by previous years.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #608 on: April 04, 2017, 09:09:26 PM »
ECMWF op 12z run is more or less a complete disaster if it comes true with a BIG 1040-1045 hpa high pressure dome over Laptev Sea. Damage: HEAVY!

The forecast might be related to that a Stratospheric Final Warming (SFW) seems to be in place right now.

GFS 12z op run agrees about the high pressure but puts it to Beaufort Sea where the "Garlic Press" might go into high gear. Damage: SEVERE!

Neither of these two solutions seems aptly for the Arctic sea ice and both of them might have a strong impact on the upcoming melting season.

To add another sober thing is that Tropical Tidbits new forecast tool for SSTA over the Pacific shows some hints of a RETROGRADE "Godzilla El NiƱo"... Link to the tool: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=Tocean_eqx&runtime=2017040400&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=1014.54541015625

Here is the Tropical Tidbits most recent GFS forecast for October.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2017, 09:15:18 PM by Lord M Vader »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #609 on: April 04, 2017, 11:37:54 PM »
JimboOmega, this year is already objectively different from all other recent years by its winter PIOMAS results. I hope you call this a measurement even though it's mostly a model.
I expect 2017 to reach:
Record low volume with very high probability.
Record low area with high probability.
Record low JAXA extent with 50-50 probability.
Yes the weather can do all sorts of wonders, but at some point it's just average weather that brings the record.

To my mind:
2015 had a big thick chunk of ice in the Beaufort, and warm El Nino weather.

In 2016, the less thick chunk of ice had migrated to the ESS and Laptev, there was still warm El Nino weather, and a strong August storm dispersed a lot of ice to the South.

In 2017, the thick chunks of ice are gone, the El Nino weather is gone, and it seems like there's a 20% to 25% chance of a strong August storm.

I think the El Nino warmth had an effect on the Pacific side, but not much effect elsewhere.  So I'll guess that the minimum extent will probably be near the 2007, 2015, 2016 minimums, with a 20% to 25% chance of a strong August storm setting a new record.

I wonder if dispersal of ice to the South in early April would tend to cool off the southern oceans while leaving time for the CAB to rethicken?

i find it interesting to read through all the different thoughts as to what to expect and it's very legit to share thoughts like yours but to predict storminess in august or chance of such goes a bit far IMO. as far as "weather" is concerned we should just see what will be as long as we cannot even predict more than 3 days and perhaps an idea of 10 days. further the current situation cannot be compared to recent years for many reasons but one is that we are very much in uncharted waters. more open and warmer waters will favour storms like in the recent past and since i as well don't (can't) know i just say, let's concentrate on the parts that we have reliable information that allows at least for some kind of reasonable assumptions and conclusions.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #610 on: April 04, 2017, 11:41:06 PM »
Pardon the pun, but watching the ease of ice transport in some of the preceding animations is truly chilling. Whilst there are still Freezing Degree Days getting clocked up in the High Arctic, it does seem a case of "too little, too late".

The fact that, purely in terms of extent, the 2017 melt season appears to have somewhat stalled at the moment, simply serves as a reminder of what transpired during 2012. If one ranks the March, April and May NSIDC monthly averages, 2012 currently occupies 14th, 20th and 13th lowest positions respectively. However, the horror show only really began in June of that year. Given that the present extent is nearly 1 million sq kms lower than that recorded for the equivalent date in 2012 should certainly give cause for apprehension.

One of the (many) ways of graphically illustrating what has been happening to Arctic sea ice is to display the number of days in each year that either has been, or indeed still is, amongst the lowest three recorded for the date.

Possibly the best example - certainly the best I can think of - is to show how 2007 has fared. According to the inhabitants of flat-land, that year was supposed to represent the nadir for Arctic sea ice. A major strand of the "logic" - and I use that word very advisedly - behind this hypothesis, was that the September minimum had increased in each of the two following years. Using NSIDC average monthly values, the September figures for Arctic sea ice extent were...

2007 = 4.32 millions sq kms
2008 = 4.73 millions sq kms
2009 = 5.39 millions sq kms

So, there is no arguing with the fact that 2009 > 2008 > 2007. The format of that inequality, allied with the fact that there had been anomalously high temperatures recorded in the Arctic during the 40's, had been used to peddle the myth that 2008 and 2009 heralded the fact that the turning point had been passed in an ~ 60 year cycle. This immediately gained uncritical acceptance in flat-land, as the average climate change sceptic wouldn't know what genuine scepticism was if it jumped up and bit them on the arse.

However, the following inequalities between NSIDC average September extents somehow seemed to have been overlooked...

1983 > 1982 > 1981
1992 > 1991 > 1990
2001 > 2000 > 1999

(Incidentally, the increase between 1990 and 1992 was quarter of a million sq kms greater than the much-vaunted 2007 - 2009 "recovery".)

{Of course, things have moved on since them, and their current meme is that the Arctic was effectively ice free nearly 100 years ago. There were so many obvious flaws in the original 60-year cycle meme, that even committee members in the House and the Senate would have had trouble keeping a straight face.}

Anyway, getting back to 2007, according to the JAXA/IJIS/ADS database, by the 31st December that year, it had registered the following daily figures...

153 days were lowest for that date
104 days were second lowest, and
105 days were third lowest. (That adds up to 362, and the other 3 days were 4th lowest.)

However, as at today, the equivalent numbers for 2007 read as follows...

Lowest: 4 days
2nd lowest: 70 days
3rd lowest: 46 days

The demise of 2007 from its position of preeminence can be seen in the attached chart. The first column shows how 2007 stood at year-end, and the subsequent columns show the decline at the end of each of the following years. The final column tracks in near-real-time as 2017 data arrives. So far this year, there have only been 8 "lowest 3" instances remaining from 2007. Each of them has been surpassed in 2017, with 2 dropping to 3rd lowest, and a further 6 dropping to 4th. As the 2017 melt season gets into gear, it will be "interesting" to see how much further 2007 will sink.


As we frequently say in Glasgow...

sic transit gloria mundi

you hit the nail on the head, 1+, seconding every letter, nice read indeed, thanks

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #611 on: April 04, 2017, 11:59:07 PM »
Baffin is really moving some ice lately.
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Adam Ash

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #612 on: April 05, 2017, 03:25:54 AM »
Baffin is really moving some ice lately.


Indeed.  Davis Straight is about 330 km wide at the narrowest there (on the Arctic Circle, thereabouts).  Measuring a big floe 17th to 23rd March which moved 100 km over those five days and assuming an average ice thickness of 1 metre gives an export of 6.6 cubic kilometres of ice per day.  That is darn a big ice-block to freeze, and quite a loss to the basin.  I've no data to tell whether this is in any way an unusual loss rate and how it compares, say, with Fram et al.  But it sure is an impressive number.

jdallen

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #613 on: April 05, 2017, 05:04:25 AM »
Baffin is really moving some ice lately.


Indeed.  Davis Straight is about 330 km wide at the narrowest there (on the Arctic Circle, thereabouts).  Measuring a big floe 17th to 23rd March which moved 100 km over those five days and assuming an average ice thickness of 1 metre gives an export of 6.6 cubic kilometres of ice per day.  That is darn a big ice-block to freeze, and quite a loss to the basin.  I've no data to tell whether this is in any way an unusual loss rate and how it compares, say, with Fram et al.  But it sure is an impressive number.
That movement is un-blocking ice coming out of Hudson's bay and opening the NW Passage up to pressure from tidal movement.

Looking at all of the exits - Bering, Barents, Fram, Baffin - it seems like a general "Un-corking" is taking place.
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Paladiea

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #614 on: April 05, 2017, 07:22:56 AM »
It seems to me that this year is looking more and more like a tipping point. Considering the thermodynamics of the situation, it only makes sense that there would be so much heat available for melt/dispersion this early in the year considering all the methane hanging around. We know that methane is 80-100 times as potent as carbon dioxide in terms of scattering radiation at the wavelengths that Earth emits, and we've had a couple of years of that elevated methane to do its work.

I'm throwing my chips in for a complete rout of the Arctic sea ice this year. I may be wrong, but if it's not going to be 2017, it will definitely be before 2020.
The most enjoyable way to think about heat transfer through radiation is to picture a Star Wars laser battle, where every atom and molecule is constantly firing at every other atom and molecule.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #615 on: April 05, 2017, 08:46:43 AM »
It seems to me that this year is looking more and more like a tipping point. Considering the thermodynamics of the situation, it only makes sense that there would be so much heat available for melt/dispersion this early in the year considering all the methane hanging around. We know that methane is 80-100 times as potent as carbon dioxide in terms of scattering radiation at the wavelengths that Earth emits, and we've had a couple of years of that elevated methane to do its work.

I'm throwing my chips in for a complete rout of the Arctic sea ice this year. I may be wrong, but if it's not going to be 2017, it will definitely be before 2020.

Unless some other processes come into play. https://watchers.news/2017/03/16/active-volcanoes-in-the-world-march-8-14-2017/
March has seen a number of potent eruptions. I wouldn't be surprised to see a cooling effect reflected in global average temperatures March-April.

etienne

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #616 on: April 05, 2017, 09:19:55 AM »
Unless some other processes come into play. https://watchers.news/2017/03/16/active-volcanoes-in-the-world-march-8-14-2017/
March has seen a number of potent eruptions. I wouldn't be surprised to see a cooling effect reflected in global average temperatures March-April.

Hello,

I made a fast check of main volcanic activity, google gives mainly 1980 Mount St Helen and 1991 Pinatobo, but on the north side of the world, there was also the Eyjafjƶll in 2010 that stopped air trafic in Europe.

I don't see any impact on the Piomas trend line.



I don't know. Maybe volcanic activity has positive and negative feed backs.

Etienne

Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #617 on: April 05, 2017, 09:21:29 AM »
It seems to me that this year is looking more and more like a tipping point. Considering the thermodynamics of the situation, it only makes sense that there would be so much heat available for melt/dispersion this early in the year considering all the methane hanging around. We know that methane is 80-100 times as potent as carbon dioxide in terms of scattering radiation at the wavelengths that Earth emits, and we've had a couple of years of that elevated methane to do its work.

I'm throwing my chips in for a complete rout of the Arctic sea ice this year. I may be wrong, but if it's not going to be 2017, it will definitely be before 2020.

Agreed.  I had a heart attack on New Years Day and my only thought was, "Not now, this is the year, I don't want to miss it." (Don't tell my wife)  ;)
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #618 on: April 05, 2017, 09:34:12 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Wednesday and 5-day outlook (Climate Reanalyzer). Seems like next week anomalies north of Ā°65 are lowest seen for quite a long time as long-term mean temperatures now start to rise.

Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #619 on: April 05, 2017, 09:37:02 AM »
Looks like it's setting up for a Siberian high. 
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #620 on: April 05, 2017, 09:40:02 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Wednesday and 5-day outlook (Climate Reanalyzer). Seems like next week anomalies north of Ā°65 are lowest seen for quite a long time as long-term mean temperatures now start to rise.
Thanks Romett for putting together this info every day, really nice to see it

Paladiea

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #621 on: April 05, 2017, 09:57:36 AM »
Unless some other processes come into play. https://watchers.news/2017/03/16/active-volcanoes-in-the-world-march-8-14-2017/
March has seen a number of potent eruptions. I wouldn't be surprised to see a cooling effect reflected in global average temperatures March-April.

The only things that volcanic activity can do to alter the planetary heat balance (and thus affect the Arctic and the ice) is to emit carbon dioxide (which can warm the planet if sustained and large enough) or emit ash (which reflects incoming solar radiation back into space, causing a cooling effect). I don't know about you, but the atmosphere doesn't look especially hazy at the moment.

Anyhow back to the ice. I mentioned last year that even though insolation was the most efficient way for heat to enter the Arctic, many other inefficient mechanisms could add up to the equivalent transfer, or greater.
The most enjoyable way to think about heat transfer through radiation is to picture a Star Wars laser battle, where every atom and molecule is constantly firing at every other atom and molecule.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #622 on: April 05, 2017, 10:06:51 AM »
It seems to me that this year is looking more and more like a tipping point. Considering the thermodynamics of the situation, it only makes sense that there would be so much heat available for melt/dispersion this early in the year considering all the methane hanging around. We know that methane is 80-100 times as potent as carbon dioxide in terms of scattering radiation at the wavelengths that Earth emits, and we've had a couple of years of that elevated methane to do its work.

I'm throwing my chips in for a complete rout of the Arctic sea ice this year. I may be wrong, but if it's not going to be 2017, it will definitely be before 2020.


Agreed.  I had a heart attack on New Years Day and my only thought was, "Not now, this is the year, I don't want to miss it." (Don't tell my wife)  ;)

I do want to miss it on the other hand, although not because of a heart attack. I have a two year old kid. I want everything to be normal while we solve world hunger. No drought, no melting ice, no global warming, no wars, just boring growing up with skinned knees and occasional tummy aches from too many apples.

slow wing

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #623 on: April 05, 2017, 10:21:52 AM »
Looks like it's setting up for a Siberian high.
Yes, I'm thinking that should offer some temporary respite for the ice, following all the strong low pressure systems of past weeks.

  The forecast winds around the Arctic basin over the next several days are relatively weak and, with the sun still low on the horizon, clear skies from the high should allow long wave thermal radiation to escape to space without the ice being exposed to too much down going short wave radiation.

Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #624 on: April 05, 2017, 10:31:05 AM »
John, if I had the power I would give that to you, and all the other parents out there.  That is what makes this so tragic.  Think quality not quantity.  One can live a full life without it being a long one.  Live for today.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2017, 10:36:40 AM by Cid_Yama »
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #625 on: April 05, 2017, 11:50:57 AM »
High pressure has come too late to thicken iced and if it persists into May and June that won't be good, though it's getting harder to imagine weather that will be good for the ice given the heat in the system.  A cold cloudy still summer maybe. The band 31 images JD posted a few days showing much greater warmth on the Russian side are alarming, is it just due to the very thin ice there or is the current from the Atlantic also being mixed more with the surface

Ice is an Esky on a hot Australian Christmas will seem hardly to melt for ages then be gone in minutes, I fear we might see enormous extent drops later in the season given all this dispersion and 1m ice in Beaufort, wafer thin in ESS etc. We've only just passed the 1.5m mark in new ice growth above 80N according to Lebedev

crandles

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #626 on: April 05, 2017, 01:39:06 PM »


I made a fast check of main volcanic activity, google gives mainly 1980 Mount St Helen and 1991 Pinatobo, but on the north side of the world, there was also the Eyjafjƶll in 2010 that stopped air trafic in Europe.


Mount St Helens was mainly sideways, and Eyjafjƶll wasn't big enough so neither caused much to get up into stratosphere. If only tropospheric then it quickly rains out.

Pinatubo and El Chichon are the largest most recent two sufficient to cause global temperature effect.

http://rmrco.com/cruise/ata/reports/100422_Aerosols_Volcanos/index.html

Neven

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #627 on: April 05, 2017, 02:11:59 PM »
Kara Sea southwest of Novaya Zemlya definitely icing over now. And so we wait for the winds to turn...
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #628 on: April 05, 2017, 02:35:05 PM »
Let's also not forget fresh FDD anomaly chart north of 80Ā°. April has started pretty badly, as temperatures are currently highest since February spike there. And next 5 days are still warmer than usual north of 80Ā°, except area from Svalbard to North Pole. Also not trying to compare this season vs 2012/2013. Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php and https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #629 on: April 05, 2017, 02:39:54 PM »
Kara Sea southwest of Novaya Zemlya definitely icing over now. And so we wait for the winds to turn...

Looks like some noticeable melt of the ice pushing into the Barents though.

Andreas T

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #630 on: April 05, 2017, 03:02:51 PM »
There is melting along the southern edge of the ice southeast of Svalbard but also some compaction in a northwesterly direction which combines to show a receding ice edge there.
see https://go.nasa.gov/2oHYl3x
 New ice has been formed on the western coast of Novaya Zemlya. This won't last long when the wind turns, water temperatures are too high I think.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #631 on: April 05, 2017, 03:40:19 PM »
There has been some speculation here about whether the forecast temperature anomalies helpfully posted by romett1 have a cold bias in the later days as the model (GFS) defers more to (colder) climatology compared to current weather.  I subtracted the forecast anomaly from the current day's anomaly reported in romett1's posts for the past couple of weeks, for lags of 5, 6 and 7 days.  There is a pervasive cold bias in the forecasts.  Almost every anomaly reported for a given day is higher than what it was forecast to be 5-7 days earlier.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #632 on: April 05, 2017, 04:08:43 PM »


I made a fast check of main volcanic activity, google gives mainly 1980 Mount St Helen and 1991 Pinatobo, but on the north side of the world, there was also the Eyjafjƶll in 2010 that stopped air trafic in Europe.


Mount St Helens was mainly sideways, and Eyjafjƶll wasn't big enough so neither caused much to get up into stratosphere. If only tropospheric then it quickly rains out.

Pinatubo and El Chichon are the largest most recent two sufficient to cause global temperature effect.

http://rmrco.com/cruise/ata/reports/100422_Aerosols_Volcanos/index.html

Thank you for the clarification and link, good read.

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #633 on: April 05, 2017, 05:10:55 PM »
There has been some speculation here about whether the forecast temperature anomalies helpfully posted by romett1 have a cold bias in the later days as the model (GFS) defers more to (colder) climatology compared to current weather.  I subtracted the forecast anomaly from the current day's anomaly reported in romett1's posts for the past couple of weeks, for lags of 5, 6 and 7 days.  There is a pervasive cold bias in the forecasts.  Almost every anomaly reported for a given day is higher than what it was forecast to be 5-7 days earlier.
Thank you dnem. I knew it!

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #634 on: April 05, 2017, 08:50:08 PM »
I suppose I ought to figure out how to show a pretty picture of this, but at this time last year the DMI 80N was beginning to hug the climatology and we were all remarking upon how consistently warm it had been.  This year, as of today the current temps are well away from hugging climatology.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #635 on: April 05, 2017, 09:29:54 PM »
2011 had similarly high march/ early April temperatures...

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #636 on: April 05, 2017, 10:22:30 PM »
2011 had similarly high march/ early April temperatures...
Correct, however they fell to climatology just about NOW after a bulge, where this year there has been a single drop to slightly above climatology.  Given the corresponding histories, do you want to place bets?


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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #637 on: April 05, 2017, 10:31:30 PM »
2011 had similarly high march/ early April temperatures...

there is for every event a point in time that was similar, the point is that we are consistently warmer and if we have a spike it's upward and except one single time not downward temp-wise and the only down spikes never reached the average line. IMO it' makes little sense to sooth the situation by pointing out when in the past it was similarly warm because that year in the past mostly if not always was cold or very cold before and after that event while the last few were not, 2016/17 especially.

JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #638 on: April 05, 2017, 10:50:41 PM »
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #639 on: April 05, 2017, 11:09:43 PM »
Not sure where this fits, but 450 icebergs suddenly appearing around the Grand Banks makes melting season real.

https://www.boston.com/news/national-news/2017/04/05/unusually-large-swarm-of-icebergs-drifts-into-shipping-lanes

oren

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #640 on: April 05, 2017, 11:13:51 PM »
Regarding DMI's 80N temps, the forecast as posted by romett seems to imply that temps are generally expected to drop in the next few days. Who knows, we might get that climatology hug after all. Although even if we do, the FDD damage has already been done, as can also be seen in the latest PIOMAS numbers.

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #641 on: April 05, 2017, 11:21:10 PM »
Regarding DMI's 80N temps, the forecast as posted by romett seems to imply that temps are generally expected to drop in the next few days. Who knows, we might get that climatology hug after all. Although even if we do, the FDD damage has already been done, as can also be seen in the latest PIOMAS numbers.
I assume it's got to happen eventually.  We are not out of ice up there yet.  But the gap between where we are and where we used to be at this time of year is really obvious.  We are still seeing the switch at the end of 2015, and no backsliding.

I might change my mind and expect summertime temps to jump above the climatology sometime late this summer.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #642 on: April 06, 2017, 12:02:50 AM »
April 1-5

Alaska in bottom center

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images?search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1
So the chances of Beaufort sea ice to survive rapidly diminish, as early as April, I believe these cracks will seed the albedo feedback come May just as past two seasons. The drift is going to continue for at least one week.
Not good. Thinnest ice overall ever (recorded), but the details are not better, eurasian side looks already like crap from Kara sea to ESS, and the MYI cannot be more compromised toward the Atlantic.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2017, 12:10:54 AM by seaicesailor »

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #643 on: April 06, 2017, 06:28:06 AM »
I think the below is a bit deceptive, as last year I think we saw much more of this north of alaska. But doesn't diminish the general concept that everyone has been noting - the ice pack appears much more susceptible to winds and transport.

April 1-5

Alaska in bottom center

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images?search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #644 on: April 06, 2017, 08:40:10 AM »
John, if I had the power I would give that to you, and all the other parents out there.  That is what makes this so tragic.  Think quality not quantity.  One can live a full life without it being a long one.  Live for today.

I think that was the most depressing comment on the boards ever. I realize the intentions were good.

I also fear this season; we have watched global warming gradually, now it is here and occurs suddenly.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2017, 08:46:40 AM by John »

romett1

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #645 on: April 06, 2017, 09:52:12 AM »
There has been some speculation here about whether the forecast temperature anomalies helpfully posted by romett1 have a cold bias in the later days as the model (GFS) defers more to (colder) climatology compared to current weather.  I subtracted the forecast anomaly from the current day's anomaly reported in romett1's posts for the past couple of weeks, for lags of 5, 6 and 7 days.  There is a pervasive cold bias in the forecasts.  Almost every anomaly reported for a given day is higher than what it was forecast to be 5-7 days earlier.
Thank you dnem. I knew it!

Thank you dnem for calculations. I was wondering as well, almost each day I had to upgrade anomalies higher. So I marked days 5 - 7 grey, as they are not too reliable.
Latest GFS anomalies and 5-day forecast (Climate Reanalyzer). Seems like all anomalies are now higher. Currently showing cyclone entering the Arctic through Bering Strait Apr 12 bringing strong winds over Bering Sea, Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea and of course higher temperatures. This is next Wednesday, have to wait and see. We know ice is not too strong there.

JayW

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #646 on: April 06, 2017, 10:00:15 AM »
I think the below is a bit deceptive, as last year I think we saw much more of this north of alaska. But doesn't diminish the general concept that everyone has been noting - the ice pack appears much more susceptible to winds and transport.

April 1-5

Alaska in bottom center

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images?search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1

We can split hairs if you like.

Last year had much more multi year ice, I doubt we see anything analogous to the "big block" as the ice appears to be breaking into smaller pieces.  My humble opinion.

First attachment is from April 5, 2017
Second attachment is April 5, 2016

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu
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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #647 on: April 06, 2017, 11:52:49 AM »
Not sure where this fits, but 450 icebergs suddenly appearing around the Grand Banks makes melting season real.

https://www.boston.com/news/national-news/2017/04/05/unusually-large-swarm-of-icebergs-drifts-into-shipping-lanes

Yes, there was a huge icefield NE and E of Newfoundland, extending out from the coast many hundreds of km, until about last Thursday (Mar 30). That's when the first of two massive back-to-back nor-easters tore into the pack with its accompanying bergs and scattered it far and wide across NW Atlantic shipping lanes.

Check out the Canadian Ice Service charts for recent analysis of NE Atlantic coastal/eastern Canadian Arctic ice.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/06/huge-fleet-icebergs-north-atlantic-shipping-lanes

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #648 on: April 06, 2017, 12:55:37 PM »
I think the below is a bit deceptive, as last year I think we saw much more of this north of alaska. But doesn't diminish the general concept that everyone has been noting - the ice pack appears much more susceptible to winds and transport.

April 1-5

Alaska in bottom center

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images?search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1

I think it is really bad, my honest opinion. The second comparison above by Jay shows that we can end up with a pretty extensive web of cracks and (worse) coastal openings, and while this does not have the size of 2016 event at all, it already establishes sinks of solar radiation heat from May on. It seemed this year Beaufort sea might have spared this (or delayed it enough) but no. And let us remember, no MYI here whatsoever.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2017 melting season
« Reply #649 on: April 06, 2017, 04:19:26 PM »
Interesting article from Guardian wrt the high number of icebergs in the North Atlantic due to "uncommonly strog counter-clockwise winds".

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/06/huge-fleet-icebergs-north-atlantic-shipping-lanes