Happy New Year 2024 (and sorry for the forum being offline some hours) /DM
At 4 days out, both the GFS and Euro have been trending toward splitting the low into two discrete and localized cyclones. This creates more focused and intense winds north of CAA/Greenland and Russia while seemingly diminishing the overall effect of the winds on Pacific side (Beaufort, etc).
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA 240 PM AKDT THURSDAY 22 JUNE 2017...JUNE 2017 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK...LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE SEA ICE BREAK UP SEASON IS WELL UNDERWAY AT RECORD PACE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA AND HAS BEGUN IN THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA AS WELL. MOST OF THE REMAINING SEA ICE IN THE ALASKA WATERS OF THE CHUKCHI SEA IS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA...GENERALLY FROM POINT LAY TO BARROW.AS WE LOOK FARTHER INTO BREAKUP SEASON...THE EARLY BREAKUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS SEASON AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MULTI-YEAR ICE IN THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA AND NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA MAY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON BREAKUP IN THE BEAUFORT SEA IN THE NEXT COUPLE MONTHS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN EARLIER BREAKUP THAN IN RECENT YEARS.DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN EACH PERTINENT SECTION BELOW.
If this proves true anything could happen from July onwards
Quote from: johnm33 on June 24, 2017, 09:13:57 AMIf this proves true anything could happen from July onwardsThat's a really big "if". GLB has been showing this sort of scenario for years. I refuse to even look at it anymore. I do still look at ARC https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html, which seems be be a little better grounded in reality.
Quote from: Nick_Naylor on June 24, 2017, 02:07:29 PMQuote from: johnm33 on June 24, 2017, 09:13:57 AMIf this proves true anything could happen from July onwardsThat's a really big "if". GLB has been showing this sort of scenario for years. I refuse to even look at it anymore. I do still look at ARC https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html, which seems be be a little better grounded in reality.Agree. The glb goes nuts in summer, the ARC (or ACNFS) is behaving pretty well imho, and it showed fair agreement with PIOMAS this year. ACNFS still seems to still over-predict effect of storms on thickness (A-Team showed a nice example of it recently). Anyway even in that case, one can expect dispersed broken ice in the areas where ACNFS predicts sudden drops of thickness. Taken with common sense it does not hurt.
UPDATE for NSIDC SIEx 106 km22017, 06, 17, 10.6052017, 06, 18, 10.5372017, 06, 19, 10.4532017, 06, 20, 10.3832017, 06, 21, 10.2932017, 06, 22, 10.2342017, 06, 23, 10.124
NSIDC figures converted to Sea Research Society Indices (we used to run on F-17 figures in the old, proper CT days, but the calculations can be done with these Tigetown's numbers as well). So far it looks there will be ice on the North Pole... NSIDC SIE WEEK (17-23 June 2017):MELTING SPEED AVERAGE: 80,167 km2/day.HYPOTHETICAL all-ice-go rate: 126 melting days.HYPOTHETICAL blue-ocean date: 28 October 2017REQUIRED blue-ocean-rate: 89 daysREQUIRED melt-rate: 133,753 km2/dayCUT-OFF POINT: Autumn EquinoxTIME Shortfall to Blue Ocean: 37 daysRATE Shortfall to Blue Ocean: 53,586 km2/dayDAYS EXCEEDING Blue Ocean Rate: 0 daysDAYS SHORT OF Blue Ocean Rate: 6 daysACC. DAYS EXCEEDING BO Rate: not availableACC. DAYS SHORT OF BO Rate: not availableSUMMER START Cut-Off Point: 1 June 2017
81 hour loop June 21-24, Chukchi Sea on the NW Alaskan coast.
Quote from: JayW on June 25, 2017, 01:58:37 PM81 hour loop June 21-24, Chukchi Sea on the NW Alaskan coast.Look at all that blue ponding on the right hand side. Small wonder the NASIDC area cratered in the Beaufort/Chukchi.
The ice round Prince Charles island looks particularly brown. Sorry if this is a basic question but is there a likely cause?http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-06-01/8-N82.50546-W48.71926
Quote from: Clenchie on June 25, 2017, 07:04:35 PMThe ice round Prince Charles island looks particularly brown. Sorry if this is a basic question but is there a likely cause?http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A/2017-06-01/8-N82.50546-W48.71926an idea that's not necessarily the case is that with the ice getting thinner each year, more and more dirt/soot accumulates on the surface. an example for this happening is the glaciers in the alps (and elsewhere) that get darker and darker in summer when the snow cover melted and this year's surface melt adds to the previous years.there is a certain amount of sand and other dirt in the ice and some glaciers know entire regions where the ice is almost fully covered by the stuff, which of course accelerates the melting process through increased albedo. the end result in some places is a black surface and not all is just dust, at times there are small stone fragments, at least on glaciers, not necessarily/probable in the arctic and most propably not on sea-ice due to lack of sources for stones. what remains is the dust made from volcanic ashes from centuries and sand imported from deserts over time.
So, the story so far.
Quote from: Neven on June 25, 2017, 09:34:55 PMSo, the story so far.Neven your images are not being displayed properly. Something to do with google user content.
The ice round Prince Charles island looks particularly brown. Sorry if this is a basic question but is there a likely cause?Don't know the cause, but the ice in that area looks the same every year that I've been watching.BudM
Its time to sound the dipole alert! A pretty slow and uneventful melting season, thus far, is about to get a lot more interesting. The attention grabbing storms, which once more prove unable to aid ice loss in high concentration ice fields, are about to be replaced by its silent, but far deadlier counterpart; the arctic dipole . This setup has consistently stalked the ECMWF forecasts for a week now and has finally entered the reliable 72h range, where it is predicted to stay all the way through 240h. It remains to be seen whether a proper dipole will last for 2-3 days (highly likely) or 7+ days (plausible, but less likely), but the latter of the two scenarios is bound to be an unmitigated disaster.
Bill, slightly OT but that means that the loss of sea ice in the Antarctic would have a greater warming effect per square metre, albedo wise, than the loss at the same latitude (north vs. south) in the Arctic?
Quote from: StopTheApocalypse on June 23, 2017, 11:08:00 PMEdit: err, having some trouble attaching images. Any tips? I took it straight from the hycom snapshot archive.The image is probably too large. 700 x 700 pixels should work, width especially is a constraint, try to crop or resize.
Edit: err, having some trouble attaching images. Any tips? I took it straight from the hycom snapshot archive.
I'm confused why you think this is a slow melting season when Wip's numbers show that the CAB is at a record minimum area for this date, and I think we are around third lowest for extent on NSIDC. Surely a slow melting season would have us at above average extent?