The Jaxa extent data and a simple arithmetic projection (based on previous 10 year average melting) says the prospects for a new record low are diminishing rapidly, and 1 million km2 is beyond reason. Also the JAXA sea ice thickness image for June 26 one year ago looks more favourable for melting than this year's image.
However, Jaxa AMSR2 volume is dropping like a stone. I think I will put my brain and pen into pause mode until PIOMAS for June comes out next week.
Interesting.
Yes, volume.
At some point in the future, the Arctic Ocean will have a tipping point that is not seen in previous years (hopefully not this year, but it is a possibility).
I doubt it will be a slow year by year, decade by decade, slow incremental diminishment, until it is mostly blue, a long time from now.
I know everyone is aware of this, but just to re-iterate - The more open ocean (the Arctic Ocean), the more loss of albedo, the more warming waters, the more Atlantic intrusion, the more top to bottom mixing, the more cracks, the more volatility with winds (because of a more complex system is introduced). All of that impacting the lowest volume in that ocean, the most fragile we have ever seen it, then a tipping point could be reached. Whether it is this year or next year, or 3 years from now, it seems to me that's what people should think about. If there is a potential for a tipping point, then I would say there is 50-50 chance of that happening this year. If the tipping point is reached, then all bets are off. That means the glass is half empty or half full. We don't know.
So predicting what is going to happen, seems to me, needs to take into account the state of the Arctic Ocean only, and its potential for a tipping point. A critical point, at which collapse occurs quickly.
I think that is what Peter Wadhams is going on about, and I think that's what he means.
At some point, this year or in the next 2 years, that tipping point is reached, then all bets are off. Previous trajectories will no longer be valid predictors.
Are we close to that tipping point this year? If more blue ocean opens up than usual (in the Arctic Ocean) in the next month, that could be a bad sign.
I hope I am wrong.
(I also have the caveat, that even with loss of ice, there could be many, unforeseen mitigating effects from nature that could mean the loss of ice is very bad for us, but may not be as bad as people are saying - Eg. see my posts in the methane thread -->
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,12.300.html#firstPost )
Graph courtesy of Oren (and this includes the CAA, so if that was removed, the Arctic Ocean volume could be even worse right now.)