Because of the rate-limiting nutrient question, I'm skeptical that future phytoplankton blooms will prove at all predictable; no question though that blooms can trap solar heat through thin ice and higher in the water column. Their effects on atmospheric gases can go either way, even counter-intuitively leading to less carbon sunk to the bottom.
Sounds like we would be in bloom type 2 at this time; these show up each year at WorldView though their full extent is seldom clear because of clouds.
Role for Atlantic inflows and sea ice loss on shifting phytoplankton blooms in the Barents Sea.
L Oziel et al May 2017
https://tinyurl.com/ybauj8yw free full text
In years of minimal sea ice extent, two spatially distinct blooms were clearly observed: one along the ice edge and another in ice-free water. These blooms are thought to be triggered by different stratification mechanisms: heating of the surface layers in ice-free waters and melting of the sea ice along the ice edge.
In years of maximal sea ice extent, no such spatial delimitation was observed. The spring bloom generally ended inJune when nutrients in the surface layer were depleted. This was followed by a stratified and oligotrophic summer period. A coccolithophore bloom generally developed in August, but was confined only to AtlanticWaters.
In these same waters, a late summer bloom of non-calcifying algae was observed in September, triggered by enhanced mixing, which replenishes surface waters with nutrients.
Remotely sensed chlorophyll a and particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) reveal the existence of at least
three distinct blooms in the Barents Sea.
The spring bloom, composed exclusively of ‘‘non-calcifying’’ phytoplankton, is triggered by two stratification processes: surface heating in the south and sea ice melting along the MIZ in the north.
The summer period is characterized by the succession of coccolithophores in late July when stratification and oligotrophic conditions are severe, followed by ‘‘non-calcifying’’ phytoplankton when vertical mixing increases in September.
Summer blooms seem to be tightly linked to the vertical mixing in the Atlantic Water area induced by local de-stratification along the mesoscale structure of the Polar and Southern Fronts combined with strong atmospheric forcing. Melt water volume also appears to be a key factor that can have a major influence by pre-venting vertical mixing.
Finally, our inter-annual study suggests that in an ‘‘Atlantification’’ context, both spring and summer blooms are extending further North and East due to the receding ice-edge and to the shift of the Southern Front in the same directions.
Annual Chl a and PIC concentrations have both increased during the last 17 years, whereas the winter input of nutrients from Atlantic Water at the Barents Sea entrance section
decreased.
This leads to major questions about the future predictions about phyto-plankton phenology and nutrient dynamics in an ‘‘Atlantified’’ Barents Sea: how will the decline in winter nutrient stocks affect phytoplankton dynamics?