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How high do you expect the maximum daily extent on IJIS in January to May 2017 to be? (In million square km)

>15 million square km
1 (0.8%)
14.75 to 15
0 (0%)
14.5 to 14.75
0 (0%)
14.25 to 14.5
1 (0.8%)
14 to 14.25
15 (11.8%)
13.75 to 14
46 (36.2%)
13.5 to 13.75
37 (29.1%)
13.25 to 13.5
13 (10.2%)
13 to 13.25
10 (7.9%)
12.75 to 13
3 (2.4%)
12.5 to 12.75
0 (0%)
<12.5
1 (0.8%)

Total Members Voted: 127

Voting closed: January 16, 2017, 02:11:06 PM

Author Topic: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction  (Read 15183 times)

Paddy

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2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: January 02, 2017, 02:11:06 PM »
As suggested. Any objections to the format?
(Specified Jan to May because of the remote possibility of a December peak).

crandles

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2017, 03:03:18 PM »
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird. It is up to 12.1 for 31st Dec and risen .48 in last 5 days so seems highly likely to rise above 12.5 before voting closes.

Perhaps last few years maximums should be listed:
2016: 13.96
2015: 13.94
2014: 14.45
2013: 14.52
2012: 14.71
2011: 14.13
2010: 14.69
2009: 14.66
2008: 14.77
2007: 14.21
2006: 14.13
2005: 14.4

Should we also have polls for piomas volume maximum and antarctic extent minimum?

Siffy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2017, 03:46:36 PM »
I've chosen 13-13.5. I expect the Arctic circle to remain well above average and for warm air injections to continue, we're past the solstice and sunlight is slowly returning, I'm not fully confident in the choice but I expect us to finish with a maximum below 2016s so it was this bin or the one above and I'm a pessimist by nature.

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2017, 04:07:12 PM »
My choice is 13 to 13.5 assuming the freezing season continues it's current trajectory. I do expect the maximum to be just south of 13.5.
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Archimid

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2017, 04:55:32 PM »
I voted 13.5-14. If there was a 13.5-13.75 bucket I would have voted for that one. I reached that conclusion by checking out the SST on 2015-12-31 vs 2016-03-15 vs 2016-12-31. The water seems hotter and the hot air intrusions  are more frequent. The Atlantic side might reach a similar extent as 2015, but I have doubts about the Bering Sea.
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Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2017, 04:58:01 PM »
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird. It is up to 12.1 for 31st Dec and risen .48 in last 5 days so seems highly likely to rise above 12.5 before voting closes.


Thank you for the figures! I agree that it's a bit much to expect a below 12.5 result, but some people always seem to like voting for the extremes.

Going with 13.5 to 14 myself. I agree with other posters that a record low seems likely, but it wouldn't seem too prudent to bet on a massive record.

EDIT: I've also made a poll for the Antarctic minimum on the relevant board (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1836.0.html). I'm not going to make volume polls myself, bit anyone who wants to should feel free.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2017, 05:29:42 PM by Paddy »

icy voyeur

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2017, 05:55:58 PM »
As suggested. Any objections to the format?
(Specified Jan to May because of the remote possibility of a December peak).

My only objection is that 13.5 to 14 is such an overwhelmingly likely result that the poll loses some value.

Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #7 on: January 02, 2017, 06:34:57 PM »

My only objection is that 13.5 to 14 is such an overwhelmingly likely result that the poll loses some value.

Fair, I feel. The main question for me was whether we'd Remain in the record low territory of the past two years or normalise (ie go back to the 14 to 14.5 band). Splitting into 250k bands would have nicely divided "similar to previous record lows" to "clear new record".

Would people prefer that we stick to the poll as is, or that we switch to 250k bands and reset voting?

charles_oil

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2017, 06:44:00 PM »
I'd be tempted to go for the 250k bands as you have for Antarctica.

Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2017, 07:14:26 PM »
POLL RESET

Bars set to 250k width, please vote again.

Let's do this properly if we do it at all.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2017, 07:40:45 PM by Paddy »

Neven

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2017, 09:06:09 PM »
Thanks for an interesting poll, Paddy. I voted 14 to 14.25.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #11 on: January 02, 2017, 09:57:14 PM »
As always, I will not vote as I haven't a clue.

oren

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #12 on: January 02, 2017, 10:05:10 PM »
Voted 13.75 to 14 like almost everyone else, I expect it to fall in the ballpark of the last two years, despite the low extent throughout the refreeze I doubt it will finish much below previous years, it could also finish above. Okhotsk could supply the extent that will probably be missing from the Barents area.
This will certainly be a year where ice extent at max, and even ice area, will not be very good indicators of the real ice situation. Volume, salinity, tensile strength, core temperature, floe size, all interesting and hard to quantify.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #13 on: January 02, 2017, 11:24:53 PM »
2017 melt season is going to be riveting.

magnamentis

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #14 on: January 02, 2017, 11:45:14 PM »
As suggested. Any objections to the format?
(Specified Jan to May because of the remote possibility of a December peak).

i mentioned it a few times, ranges should be overlapping because whether we shall have 13.96 or 14.01 is no real difference but one has to choose still. with overlapping values, say 13.75-14.00, 13.9-14.10, 14-14.25 etc. it's possible to choose a range around the expected value instead of below and above. hope it's clear.
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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #15 on: January 03, 2017, 12:07:13 AM »
I will wait, at least until Piomas gives the December volumes.  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost?
50% [NSIDC extent vs 1979-2000] or
80% [Orig. PIOMAS volume vs 1979, 77.6% with corrections]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3D is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC official trends underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

charles_oil

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #16 on: January 03, 2017, 12:39:18 AM »
Thanks - can votes be changed prior to close?  If so how?

logicmanPatrick

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #17 on: January 03, 2017, 01:00:19 AM »
Voted 13.5 to 13.75

It seems we now have 2 seasons in the Arctic - the summer melting season and the winter melting season.
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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #18 on: January 03, 2017, 02:03:19 AM »
13.75 to 14 for me. Although the rest of the freezing season is almost certainly going to be a bit of damp squib, I reckon the weakness of the pack will lead to more expansion in extent than we might expect. Displacing a lot of the cold southwards also allows some offsetting of the Bering and  North Atlantic carnage.

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #19 on: January 03, 2017, 12:29:17 PM »
Im going for 13.75 to 14.

Or 13.91 to be precise

Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #20 on: January 03, 2017, 12:48:10 PM »
Thanks - can votes be changed prior to close?  If so how?

I thought I'd set it so that we could, but now can't see a button below the poll to do so. Sorry :S

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #21 on: January 03, 2017, 01:35:17 PM »
13.782456 for 09th of March to get all the digits represented.
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charles_oil

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #22 on: January 03, 2017, 02:12:21 PM »
Thanks Paddy - never mind - I did an early vote without looking properly - so I will have to live with the results & keep fingers crossed (may sound familiar for other voters too...) !   

Though actually - anything is possible with the Arctic this year I think.  Previous low (2010/11) had a large part of Hudson Bay poised to freeze at this point - not sure what we have that will take us a couple of million higher with all the warm water lurking.

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #23 on: January 03, 2017, 03:26:47 PM »
I went to 14-14.25
The north Pacific should end the winter with more ice this year than the last 2

Neven

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #24 on: January 03, 2017, 03:52:22 PM »
Thanks - can votes be changed prior to close?  If so how?

I thought I'd set it so that we could, but now can't see a button below the poll to do so. Sorry :S

I changed it. You should be able to re-vote, charles_oil.
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Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #25 on: January 03, 2017, 04:13:57 PM »
Thank you Neven!

Is there any chance you or one of the admins could possibly make the same change to the Antarctic poll? http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1836.0.html

Neven

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #26 on: January 03, 2017, 09:35:54 PM »
Thank you Neven!

Is there any chance you or one of the admins could possibly make the same change to the Antarctic poll? http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1836.0.html


Done.
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Feeltheburn

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #27 on: January 04, 2017, 07:21:11 AM »
Thanks for an interesting poll, Paddy. I voted 14 to 14.25.

I must be more of an "alarmist" than Neven as I voted 13.75-14 km2. Until I voted I had no idea it got a plurality. Maybe I should have gone out on a limb.

No doubt those voting for <12.5 and >15 are voting with their heart, not their brain.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2017, 07:35:01 AM by Feeltheburn »
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Feeltheburn

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #28 on: January 04, 2017, 07:26:01 AM »
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird.

No one likes to be weird. Vote disappeared! Wadhams?
« Last Edit: January 04, 2017, 07:35:22 AM by Feeltheburn »
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Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #29 on: January 04, 2017, 07:53:21 AM »
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird.

No one likes to be weird. Vote disappeared! Wadhams?

Whoever it was hasn't voted for it again since the bin-shrinking reset.

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #30 on: January 04, 2017, 02:05:52 PM »
13.5 - 13.75 I expect warm temperatures in the North Pacific to keep extent down in Bering and Okhotsk. 2014 and 2015 went low without much of a lead up so with this years weak freezing season I think a big decline in the minimum is possible.

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #31 on: January 05, 2017, 07:27:31 AM »
I voted, surprisingly, for the 14.25 - 14.5 bin due to the large area of near-freezing temperatures in the Sea of Okhotsk, with most of it at or below 0C:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/global.c.gif

Although the Bering Sea might more than compensate for it, considering how there is still open water in the Arctic on the Pacific side, thanks to the storm that blew through there recently.

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #32 on: January 07, 2017, 01:02:48 AM »
Thanks for an interesting poll, Paddy. I voted 14 to 14.25.

Normally my votes are one bin more pessimistic than the mode.  So imagine my surprise when I was one of the few optimists who don't expect a record.  But then when I saw Neven is one of the other people in my group, now I don't feel so bad.  We might even be right.  LOL!

Steven

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #33 on: January 07, 2017, 12:55:03 PM »
I voted for 14-14.25 million km2.  This is based on linear regression, using the JAXA extent for January 6th as a predictor of the annual maximum.  This gives an estimate of 14.1 +/- 0.5 million km2  for the 2017 JAXA extent maximum.  The calculation uses detrended data for the last 20 years.

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #34 on: January 07, 2017, 01:31:54 PM »
I went with 13.75M - 14M, though it'll likely be really easy to slip above 14M come the first few weeks of March. (If 2017 were to follow the average behavior of the past ten years [2007-2016], IJIS extent would top out at 13.98M, and on 07 March.)


Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #35 on: January 07, 2017, 05:13:37 PM »
I continue to appreciate Jim Pettit's projection graphs (and other data presentations).  I appreciate that these are not "prediction" but merely "projection" based on past experience. 

The future may not "follow" the past, but it always actually does, and often times past experience is a fairly good indicator of future reality.  The graphs of global sea ice extent/area show these past several months are an example of an exception. This may lead to more exceptions (but also show how rare such exceptions are).  Time will tell.  I don't think many of us have the tools to do better than 'projections based on past experience'.

I note from Jim's graph that recent years tend to have more ice area gain between now and the peak than previous, lower extent, years.  This is 'obviously' (at least to me) due to there being more open water accessible to freezing that succumbs late in the season, whereas previously the ice/water boundary was generally further south and therefore controlled by an earlier solar gain environment.

Because of the current low number of accumulated freezing degree days (FDD) and other measures people have been reporting of the poor 'state of the ice', I would not be surprised if the 2017 melt season 'follows' the 2012 line.  But this is just a guess!
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magnamentis

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #36 on: January 07, 2017, 07:09:44 PM »
I continue to appreciate Jim Pettit's projection graphs (and other data presentations).  I appreciate that these are not "prediction" but merely "projection" based on past experience. 

The future may not "follow" the past, but it always actually does, and often times past experience is a fairly good indicator of future reality.  The graphs of global sea ice extent/area show these past several months are an example of an exception. This may lead to more exceptions (but also show how rare such exceptions are).  Time will tell.  I don't think many of us have the tools to do better than 'projections based on past experience'.

I note from Jim's graph that recent years tend to have more ice area gain between now and the peak than previous, lower extent, years.  This is 'obviously' (at least to me) due to there being more open water accessible to freezing that succumbs late in the season, whereas previously the ice/water boundary was generally further south and therefore controlled by an earlier solar gain environment.

Because of the current low number of accumulated freezing degree days (FDD) and other measures people have been reporting of the poor 'state of the ice', I would not be surprised if the 2017 melt season 'follows' the 2012 line.  But this is just a guess!

a very eductated guess though IMO :-)
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jdallen

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #37 on: January 07, 2017, 11:14:09 PM »
I continue to appreciate Jim Pettit's projection graphs (and other data presentations).  I appreciate that these are not "prediction" but merely "projection" based on past experience. 

The future may not "follow" the past, but it always actually does, and often times past experience is a fairly good indicator of future reality.  The graphs of global sea ice extent/area show these past several months are an example of an exception. This may lead to more exceptions (but also show how rare such exceptions are).  Time will tell.  I don't think many of us have the tools to do better than 'projections based on past experience'.

I note from Jim's graph that recent years tend to have more ice area gain between now and the peak than previous, lower extent, years.  This is 'obviously' (at least to me) due to there being more open water accessible to freezing that succumbs late in the season, whereas previously the ice/water boundary was generally further south and therefore controlled by an earlier solar gain environment.

Because of the current low number of accumulated freezing degree days (FDD) and other measures people have been reporting of the poor 'state of the ice', I would not be surprised if the 2017 melt season 'follows' the 2012 line.  But this is just a guess!

a very eductated guess though IMO :-)
+1

Let me add, a quick review of the last 6 previous years dropping out the outlier - 2012 - gives an average drop to minimum of about 9.7 million KM2.  If we top out at just under 14 million, that average places us in the 2007/2001/2015/2016 ball park.

As Tor points out, the key difference is ice quality - thickness and strength.  The key variable will be summer weather, and how much negative feedbacks which inhibit insolation such that it reduces heat applied to the ice.

2012 dropped 11.5 million KM2 with pretty optimal melt conditions and much, MUCH more robust ice than we have currently.  A repeat of 2012 heat would almost without question drop us under 2 million KM2.  Even without that, with continued import of heat and moisture from mid-latitudes, following 2012's curve isn't just possible, but probable; in short, we could expect to reach 2012 minimum levels with "average" melt season weather.
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Sterks

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #38 on: January 09, 2017, 09:45:59 AM »
I argued in another thread that Global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures have abated somewhat after two years of Niño or near-Niño. They are still running high but not as much as one year ago.
.https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,445.msg97788.html#msg97788
Therefore, we may expect a maximum ice extent that is low, but perhaps not as low as 2015 & 2016. A comeback to 14 - 14.25 million km2 perhaps. The maximum ASI follows AGW trends whereas the minimum is more sensitive to other factors.

Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #39 on: January 09, 2017, 11:05:36 AM »
One small thing I would add is that, with the ENSO factoring in, we're no longer quite at peak global temperatures (https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/december-2016), although the el Nino this year looks like it should be pretty weak. So the rest of this winter may likely be a bit colder than the equivalent period in 2016. So I'm not sure how long 2017 will hold onto record low levels of sea ice extent, and even if it does stay at a record level into March, I don't expect it to be by a large margin.

EDIT: Also, more specifically to the Arctic, DMI 80N was extremely high in early 2016. It may not be quite so high this year. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
« Last Edit: January 09, 2017, 11:20:16 AM by Paddy »

Pavel

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #40 on: January 09, 2017, 06:45:11 PM »
I've voted 13.5-13.75
I guess the extent in the Sea of Okhotsk will be a bit more than average, but well below average in the Bering Sea. The Okhotsk can't get the extent much more than average as the sun shines warm in march and the current weather forecast predict warm temperatures this week

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #41 on: January 09, 2017, 07:29:15 PM »
@Sterks I saw that drop in global temps too. However, the main concern for SIE continues to be a wavy jet stream and related cyclone cannons.  With a wavy jet there is plenty of heat (along with wind+moisture) coming in from lower latitudes to keep SIE trending like it has.  Also the Arctic ocean and the Bering sea, on the surface and subsurface, do not appear to be cooling fast enough.

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #42 on: January 09, 2017, 08:44:18 PM »
I  voted 13.5 to 13.75 out of respect for Patrick's insights.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2017, 08:51:48 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #43 on: January 10, 2017, 06:06:14 AM »
IJIS is today 250k km2 below the previous record. At the same time, Piomas volume is 927 km3 below the previous 2012 record. So I have to vote low, thinking that another low record is possible. At the same time, I hope that it will not be too low.

So, 13.75 - 14
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost?
50% [NSIDC extent vs 1979-2000] or
80% [Orig. PIOMAS volume vs 1979, 77.6% with corrections]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3D is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC official trends underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

DavidR

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #44 on: January 10, 2017, 08:58:30 AM »
I argued in another thread that Global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures have abated somewhat after two years of Niño or near-Niño. They are still running high but not as much as one year ago.
.https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,445.msg97788.html#msg97788
Therefore, we may expect a maximum ice extent that is low, but perhaps not as low as 2015 & 2016. A comeback to 14 - 14.25 million km2 perhaps. The maximum ASI follows AGW trends whereas the minimum is more sensitive to other factors.
Its not as simple as that because most of the extent increase will be in the Bering and Okhotz seas.

If you  look at that  area 150-210E, 55-65N,  both  SST and Air temperatures in December were hotter than the past few years, particularly compared to last year. The annual  figures were hottest on record. SST has a habit of having an effect on ice beyond the month in question and I expect extent growth in this area to  be more like 2014 when it  was low,  than 2015 when it was relatively high.  If that  were the case, and it  was not compensated for elsewhere, extent could easily drop  300-400K below last year.

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #45 on: January 10, 2017, 06:35:43 PM »
IJIS is today 250k km2 below the previous record. At the same time, Piomas volume is 927 km3 below the previous 2012 record. So I have to vote low, thinking that another low record is possible. At the same time, I hope that it will not be too low.

So, 13.75 - 14

considering that volume is the real thing when it comes to how much energy is needed to melt a certain amount of ice it will be (is already) very very low. extent does not serve much because 1m of ice and 16% of thin ice cover are providing the same value but with a totally different energy balance.

area is somewhat in the middle but only volume really counts while like so often, the best tools are the most difficult to get a hold off (calculate in this case)
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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #46 on: January 10, 2017, 07:38:11 PM »
I argued in another thread that Global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures have abated somewhat after two years of Niño or near-Niño. They are still running high but not as much as one year ago.
.https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,445.msg97788.html#msg97788
Therefore, we may expect a maximum ice extent that is low, but perhaps not as low as 2015 & 2016. A comeback to 14 - 14.25 million km2 perhaps. The maximum ASI follows AGW trends whereas the minimum is more sensitive to other factors.
Its not as simple as that because most of the extent increase will be in the Bering and Okhotz seas.

If you  look at that  area 150-210E, 55-65N,  both  SST and Air temperatures in December were hotter than the past few years, particularly compared to last year. The annual  figures were hottest on record. SST has a habit of having an effect on ice beyond the month in question and I expect extent growth in this area to  be more like 2014 when it  was low,  than 2015 when it was relatively high.  If that  were the case, and it  was not compensated for elsewhere, extent could easily drop  300-400K below last year.
I agree with DavidR assessment about the SST, tend to think we will have another sub 14 million km2 maximum regardless of lower global temps (but still very warm Arctic ain't it?). By how much, no idea but I put my vote in the 13.75-14 M km2 bin.

JMP

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #47 on: January 11, 2017, 09:50:02 AM »
I'm thinking it's going to be close to 14 possibly a bit below, but went with 14 to 14.25 because iirc  extent has been on the larger-than-expected side more-often-than-not in the past.  I usually fool myself into thinking the numbers will reflect my concern over how bad the conditions truly appear, and so this time I'm aiming a bit higher. 

When it comes to how much ice is missing - if I'm interpreting what A-Team just posted correctly - no matter extent the ice is so thin that the number will be practically misleading because there's so little thick ice left.

Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #48 on: January 12, 2017, 01:02:13 PM »
Just four days until the poll closes, in case anyone's thinking of revising their vote.

magnamentis

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #49 on: January 13, 2017, 06:58:14 PM »
sticking to just below 14M as it becomes more and more probable looking at the most recent drop of today

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