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Poll

How high do you expect the maximum daily extent on IJIS in January to May 2017 to be? (In million square km)

>15 million square km
1 (0.8%)
14.75 to 15
0 (0%)
14.5 to 14.75
0 (0%)
14.25 to 14.5
1 (0.8%)
14 to 14.25
15 (11.8%)
13.75 to 14
46 (36.2%)
13.5 to 13.75
37 (29.1%)
13.25 to 13.5
13 (10.2%)
13 to 13.25
10 (7.9%)
12.75 to 13
3 (2.4%)
12.5 to 12.75
0 (0%)
<12.5
1 (0.8%)

Total Members Voted: 127

Voting closed: January 16, 2017, 02:11:06 PM

Author Topic: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction  (Read 15182 times)

jdallen

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #100 on: February 28, 2017, 06:32:26 AM »
My updated prediction for this year's max: 13,839,032  ;D
Cheater  ;D ;D ;D
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jdallen

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #101 on: February 28, 2017, 06:51:27 AM »
The glaring difference in the record of continuous monthly lows.

That was summer 2012.

This is winter.....I wonder what summer will bring. Also a lot of fracturing is occurring in the Arctic Ocean. The pack is moving a fair amount.
Hey A4R! Welcome back!

Fracturing doesn't begin to cover it.  If we get even an *average* melt season, we are just so much toast....
This space for Rent.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #102 on: February 28, 2017, 08:32:55 AM »
My updated prediction for this year's max: 13,839,032  ;D
Cheater  ;D ;D ;D
Ha ha. Reminds me of 2012
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #103 on: March 06, 2017, 08:25:02 AM »
Too bad, Oren.

oren

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #104 on: March 06, 2017, 08:55:59 AM »
Too bad, Oren.
Absoultely. Cheat and yet be wrong.  >:( :-X

Deeenngee

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #105 on: March 06, 2017, 10:13:08 PM »
As per before, but now going back to 1990. 14.0 looks to me like a coin flip, albeit based on eyeballing and absolutely nothing scientific, meteorological etc.

Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #106 on: March 08, 2017, 01:11:15 PM »
When do we feel we should call time on the max? I'd be tempted to set March 21st as the date to announce the poll winner if we aren't then at or very close to the max for the year, as a post-equinox max seems unlikely.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #107 on: March 08, 2017, 01:24:43 PM »
When do we feel we should call time on the max? I'd be tempted to set March 21st as the date to announce the poll winner if we aren't then at or very close to the max for the year, as a post-equinox max seems unlikely.

Why not All Fools' Day (April 1). Predicting anything as to specific timing and quantity in a period of rapid transition and extreme volatility is .....

Juan C. García

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #108 on: March 17, 2017, 05:52:03 AM »
Seems that March 6th had the maximum:  13,878,287 km2.
Today (March 16th figure) we are  172,328 km2 below.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost?
50% [NSIDC extent vs 1979-2000] or
80% [Orig. PIOMAS volume vs 1979, 77.6% with corrections]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3D is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC official trends underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #109 on: March 17, 2017, 02:08:23 PM »
Looks that way, yeah - as Jim Pettit pointed out on the IJIS thread, no previous year has seen a rise from this date on that would push us back over 13.88.

And even if we do get such a record rise, there's no way extent will climb over 14 million now. I declare the 13.75 to 14 category the winner.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #110 on: March 17, 2017, 03:39:55 PM »
Conveniently, 13.878 is virtually half way between 13.75 and 14, so 'nobody' can claim their bin was almost right.
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magnamentis

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #111 on: March 17, 2017, 05:45:56 PM »
Conveniently, 13.878 is virtually half way between 13.75 and 14, so 'nobody' can claim their bin was almost right.

haha.... true that but still someone recently and finally made a poll with overlapping values which is the real and long term solution, but yes at times i was tempted to make that claim while being 0.0xxx off only but then it's too obviously ego-based behaviour LOL
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crandles

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #112 on: March 17, 2017, 09:46:16 PM »
Conveniently, 13.878 is virtually half way between 13.75 and 14, so 'nobody' can claim their bin was almost right.

Dash, I wanted to claim the centre of the bin I chose 1.75-14 was almost right . Foiled again ;)

pauldry600

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #113 on: March 17, 2017, 10:36:29 PM »
I chose 13.91 so wasnt far off for a complete novice just picking a number out of increasingly hot air

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #114 on: March 18, 2017, 04:30:08 AM »
I chose 13.91 so wasnt far off for a complete novice just picking a number out of increasingly hot air

I included the extreme values with the values 15.125 and 12.375 and got the ASIF average to be 13.699803Mkm2, so that's waay closer. The ASIF erred by 178484 km2 to the low side so as a group this is one of the most accuratest values we've been voting for over the years. But as usual, some individuals (this happens because of statistics, too) are almost on the spot, 31710 km2 (pauldry600) doesn't even fill the State of Maryland! As a group though, we lost an Uruguay-sized chunk of sea ice. Well that happens. So what, if Missouri-sized slab of 2 meter ice goes missing in predictive polling, that's only ~1.3% error. You could say forgetting the Alps is significant, but the Alps are just a one mountain chain in the world, do you remember all the others (and remember to count in Antarctic sea ice max) ?? This result would have been approved to experimental medical testing with humans (death as a side effect has though a higher limit). Not bad I say. (please check this yourself before spreading the message of high accuracy of the forum members.)

(Edit:Hoping I don't have to do that again as the cracking is quite significant up there...

By looking only the past ten year average of c.14.404M the error would have gone up to near 3,8%, in contrast pauldry600 hit within 0.23% of the current maximum number. I know in biological systems this is nearly unattainable accuracy so the conclusion is we're likely dealing with physics.  Stretching to verbal extrapolation, I could say, in this case, physics was at least 2.5% more accurate than history ::) :P ;)
« Last Edit: March 18, 2017, 07:39:24 AM by Pmt111500 »
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #115 on: March 18, 2017, 05:07:05 AM »
Now that I'm a winner, I'll show my cards.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

pauldry600

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #116 on: March 18, 2017, 10:42:51 PM »
No mine was a fluke

At one stage I thought it was headed for 14m

The melt could be impossible to get a bin for.

Where to begin or end?

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #117 on: March 19, 2017, 03:35:34 AM »
No mine was a fluke

At one stage I thought it was headed for 14m

The melt could be impossible to get a bin for.

Where to begin or end?
Fluke, beginner's luck, sensitive insticnt, lucky shot, call it what you will, but get three in a row as close people will take note... ;) I still remember when my second shot with a bow hit a 9 and the next 10 went right off the target :).

If you get many guesses on any poll someone is bound to be nearest and very close to correct. Or at least among nearest two. Add to that, most of the 127 voters did not announce their exact guess so saying some exact number in correct bin increases the chances to be nearest one.

In this sort of net poll, someone would have to do a list of the exact guesses and calculate the stats from those to get a more fair representation of the chances. Some people said specific descriptions of their guesses like 'low 14-14.25', but the calculation above doesn't note these at all. I just took the midpoints of each category and multiplied by number of votes to get the ASIF average.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 06:02:39 AM by Pmt111500 »
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

magnamentis

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #118 on: March 19, 2017, 07:05:55 PM »
No mine was a fluke

At one stage I thought it was headed for 14m

The melt could be impossible to get a bin for.

Where to begin or end?
Fluke, beginner's luck, sensitive insticnt, lucky shot, call it what you will, but get three in a row as close people will take note... ;) I still remember when my second shot with a bow hit a 9 and the next 10 went right off the target :).

If you get many guesses on any poll someone is bound to be nearest and very close to correct. Or at least among nearest two. Add to that, most of the 127 voters did not announce their exact guess so saying some exact number in correct bin increases the chances to be nearest one.

In this sort of net poll, someone would have to do a list of the exact guesses and calculate the stats from those to get a more fair representation of the chances. Some people said specific descriptions of their guesses like 'low 14-14.25', but the calculation above doesn't note these at all. I just took the midpoints of each category and multiplied by number of votes to get the ASIF average.

IMO who is best should not even be a topic seriously because based on the situation and all know factors we can make a guess in a range while even trying to show up with specific precise numbers is "a game" at best and useless for sure because it's like playing lottery, sooner or later someone wins while most others loose and then the motivation to make a precise guess is nothing else than speculating to hit home once in a while and looking good in the aftermath.

this kind of ego-driven play is one of the reasons why we (mankind) face(s) environmental as well as other unnecessary serious trouble. what we should learn (all of us) is to analyze the facts and the impact of our doing as good and as soon as possible and act accordingly.
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Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !