I chose 13.91 so wasnt far off for a complete novice just picking a number out of increasingly hot air
I included the extreme values with the values 15.125 and 12.375 and got the ASIF average to be 13.699803Mkm2
, so that's waay closer. The ASIF erred by 178484 km2
to the low side so as a group this is one of the most accuratest values we've been voting for over the years. But as usual, some individuals (this happens because of statistics, too) are almost on the spot, 31710 km2
(pauldry600) doesn't even fill the State of Maryland! As a group though, we lost an Uruguay-sized
chunk of sea ice. Well that happens. So what, if Missouri-sized slab of 2 meter ice goes missing in predictive polling, that's only ~1.3% error. You could say forgetting the Alps is significant, but the Alps are just a one mountain chain in the world, do you remember all the others (and remember to count in Antarctic sea ice max) ?? This result would have been approved to experimental medical testing with humans (death as a side effect has though a higher limit). Not bad I say. (please check this yourself before spreading the message of high accuracy of the forum members.)
(Edit:Hoping I don't have to do that again as the cracking is quite significant up there...
By looking only the past ten year average of c.14.404M the error would have gone up to near 3,8%, in contrast pauldry600 hit within 0.23% of the current maximum number. I know in biological systems this is nearly unattainable accuracy so the conclusion is we're likely dealing with physics. Stretching to verbal extrapolation, I could say, in this case, physics was at least 2.5% more accurate than history