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How high do you expect the maximum daily extent on IJIS in January to May 2017 to be? (In million square km)

>15 million square km
1 (0.8%)
14.75 to 15
0 (0%)
14.5 to 14.75
0 (0%)
14.25 to 14.5
1 (0.8%)
14 to 14.25
15 (11.8%)
13.75 to 14
46 (36.2%)
13.5 to 13.75
37 (29.1%)
13.25 to 13.5
13 (10.2%)
13 to 13.25
10 (7.9%)
12.75 to 13
3 (2.4%)
12.5 to 12.75
0 (0%)
<12.5
1 (0.8%)

Total Members Voted: 127

Voting closed: January 16, 2017, 02:11:06 PM

Author Topic: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction  (Read 16611 times)

DavidR

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #50 on: January 13, 2017, 11:30:58 PM »
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird. It is up to 12.1 for 31st Dec and risen .48 in last 5 days so seems highly likely to rise above 12.5 before voting closes.
Or maybe not. Seems to  be a 50:50 bet now  ;)

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #51 on: January 14, 2017, 12:24:17 AM »
If the remainder of 2017 were to exactly follow the daily ups and downs of any year from 2003 through 2016, only a duplication of 2008's behavior would render a maximum greater than 14M, and even that just barely. The to-maximum mean average behavior over the past 13 years would see a mid-March peak of about 13.75M:


jdallen

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #52 on: January 14, 2017, 04:07:07 AM »
If the remainder of 2017 were to exactly follow the daily ups and downs of any year from 2003 through 2016, only a duplication of 2008's behavior would render a maximum greater than 14M, and even that just barely. The to-maximum mean average behavior over the past 13 years would see a mid-March peak of about 13.75M:
The additional open water offers some small opportunity for extent increase beyond what typically would take place.

That said, that extent is primarily on the Atlantic side or the Bering sea, neither of which seem particularly inclined to give up very much ocean surface to ice.  The 14M high limit is probably safe, and we will probably see a new "Min-Max" this winter.
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Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #53 on: January 14, 2017, 11:52:04 AM »
Going for 13.75 to 14. I was tempted to go lower with the current plateau and coming storm, but there should still be a good month and more of refreeze after that storm has passed to return closer to normal levels.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #54 on: January 14, 2017, 12:55:05 PM »
My guess is there will be more storms.  But I hold on to my 13.75-14 guess for maximum.
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epiphyte

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #55 on: January 14, 2017, 06:12:36 PM »
I voted for 13.5-13.75, without much conviction though; one might say I'm lukewarm about it.

If it does in fact come in that low, then things are really bad. In the past I've considered extent to be pretty much irrelevant to the big picture at any time other than late summer - but having areas above the 80th with no cover at all at this time of year is pretty shocking.

My first car had a broken gas gauge, but the "low fuel" warning light still worked. This situation kind of reminds me of that.

[edit] - I just dropped one bin, to 13.25-13.5 . the interminable lows in the forecast are just spooky.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2017, 09:38:48 PM by epiphyte »

mmghosh

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #56 on: January 15, 2017, 05:28:33 AM »
My 13.25-13.5 is looking solid!  Maybe I'll be right for the first time in 4 years...

budmantis

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #57 on: January 15, 2017, 06:06:47 AM »
My 13.25-13.5 is looking solid!  Maybe I'll be right for the first time in 4 years...

That's the bucket I chose. It would be nice to be right once in a while!
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DavidR

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #58 on: January 15, 2017, 06:44:54 AM »
My 13.25-13.5 is looking solid!  Maybe I'll be right for the first time in 4 years...
Solid is a bit optimistic. Based on the rise from today (12387965) to the max for 2003 to 2016, 2 years would give a result  below 13.5, 7 between 13.5 and 13.75 and the remaining 5 between 13.75 and the current record low maximum.  However based  on what  we are actually  seeing I  will give you about a 1/3rd chance of being right.

Even to  get to 13.0 by the end of the month requires a larger than average increase, and we need a record increase to get above the end of month record low.

magnamentis

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #59 on: January 15, 2017, 12:38:22 PM »
My 13.25-13.5 is looking solid!  Maybe I'll be right for the first time in 4 years...

That's the bucket I chose. It would be nice to be right once in a while!

you are two brave predictors LOL that would be quite extreme. while solid is a bit bold it's at least possible and even though i know exactly what i know with "it would be nice" we certainly agree that should that happen it would NOT be nice at all.

generally i think that if we won't see some kind of turn-around, backing away from that record after record pattern we got stuck for quite some time now, that we could be in for real disaster soon. with that i mean increased speed for SLR (Abrupt Sea Level Rise LOL) and other extreme weather events in increased numbers, be it overly wet and/or overly dry and stormy. with overly i mean events that will be higher on the scale that anyone expected till now.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2017, 03:25:42 PM by magnamentis »
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crandles

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #60 on: January 15, 2017, 12:58:58 PM »
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird. It is up to 12.1 for 31st Dec and risen .48 in last 5 days so seems highly likely to rise above 12.5 before voting closes.
Or maybe not. Seems to  be a 50:50 bet now  ;)

Or 0% now. Oops, and I thought I had put quite a bit of safety margin in that. Could stay below 12.5 for a while yet if this lasts til storm hits. Still think it will go well above 12.5 possibly with a late season max. But given this forecasting record, I wouldn't trust me.

anotheramethyst

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #61 on: January 15, 2017, 11:32:34 PM »

Or 0% now. Oops, and I thought I had put quite a bit of safety margin in that. Could stay below 12.5 for a while yet if this lasts til storm hits. Still think it will go well above 12.5 possibly with a late season max. But given this forecasting record, I wouldn't trust me.

if it makes you feel any better, i'm expecting a late season max precisely because it's so low.  but of course i could be wrong, as there are no reliable weather predictions 2 months in advance :)

Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #62 on: January 16, 2017, 01:40:18 AM »
Voting closes in 14 hours. Looks like the midpoint of the guests is around 13.75 at the moment (half the votes above, and half the votes below).

Rick Aster

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #63 on: January 16, 2017, 02:52:38 AM »
I decided I would predict the previous seasonal record low. It's reached the point where I get surprised whenever ice levels go very far above or below the previous record low for the day.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #64 on: January 16, 2017, 02:57:21 AM »
As I have done for every poll over the last 4 years, I shall not vote as I haven't a clue. I will sit on the sidelines to wait for the other clueless here to join me.  8)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #65 on: January 16, 2017, 02:25:03 PM »
Oh, I'm with you, SH, being clueless and all, but I enjoy putting the old lira coin I found when I was 12 (the one worth closer to nothing than 2 cents) 'on the line' to see just how clueless I am. Someday that coin (if I can find it) will be worth something and people will say I am wise!
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jplotinus

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #66 on: January 16, 2017, 03:24:00 PM »
"Those who know, don't say; and those who say, don't know. Thus, 13.5-13.75.

magnamentis

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #67 on: January 16, 2017, 05:45:30 PM »
"Those who know, don't say; and those who say, don't know. Thus, 13.5-13.75.

you mean like a dog that barks doesn't bite? that's wrong sir, hope you never gonna find out LOL |JK]
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gregcharles

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #68 on: January 17, 2017, 06:05:49 AM »
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird. It is up to 12.1 for 31st Dec and risen .48 in last 5 days so seems highly likely to rise above 12.5 before voting closes.

Voting is closed and extent is 12,496,927 km2 according to Espen's latest post. I was sure you'd be right, but the arctic -- it's full of surprises these days.  :-\

charles_oil

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #69 on: January 17, 2017, 10:44:19 AM »
I voted early by error (reply#22) but ended up leaving the 12.75 - 13 ... so who knows ?

pauldry600

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #70 on: January 18, 2017, 12:02:05 AM »
Definitely wont finish that low. End of January recovery and growth in February will see us at 13,913,453  :P

charles_oil

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #71 on: January 18, 2017, 08:44:53 AM »
Thanks - ducking stool ready if that is right!
« Last Edit: January 18, 2017, 02:31:15 PM by charles_oil »

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #72 on: January 18, 2017, 02:29:53 PM »
If daily extent changes for the remainder of this melt season were to follow the average of the past 10 years (2007-2016), SIE would reach a maximum of 13.69M km2 on 07 March, which would be a new low maximum record. (The actual average maximum over those ten years has been 14.4M.)

2016 IJIS SIE is still 1.338M km3 lower than the 2015 record low max. Four years in the past ten have gained enough additional extent after this date to rise above that record: 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014.

Yesterday's increase of 106k is only the third century-plus increase recorded in the second half of January since 2008. IOW, twas a rare thing...



DoomInTheUK

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #73 on: January 18, 2017, 02:56:07 PM »
Jim - Once these storms start making their mark it'll be a short lived thing too!
So much heat around the edges and it January. No wonder this freeze season thread is so active.

Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #74 on: January 18, 2017, 06:10:59 PM »
Definitely wont finish that low. End of January recovery and growth in February will see us at 13,913,453  :P
.

My estimate is 13,765,432.1 :P

Juan C. García

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #75 on: February 12, 2017, 06:25:53 AM »
IJIS is today 250k km2 below the previous record. At the same time, Piomas volume is 927 km3 below the previous 2012 record. So I have to vote low, thinking that another low record is possible. At the same time, I hope that it will not be too low.

So, 13.75 - 14

During February, IJIS has stayed on the 13.31 and 13.37 million km2. That is, no a single increase on the first 11 days! IJIS could reach the 13.5 million km2 mark, because there is still one month in which there could be a freeze, but I starting to doubt that we will reach the 13.75-14 million km2 range. Under 13.75 will be a huge low maximum.  :(
« Last Edit: February 12, 2017, 04:02:30 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Unmex Chingon

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #76 on: February 12, 2017, 06:46:57 AM »
I am with all here... ZERO maximum... That will show Trump....

Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #77 on: February 13, 2017, 10:18:45 AM »
During February, IJIS has stayed on the 13.31 and 13.37 million km2. That is, no a single increase on the first 11 days! IJIS could reach the 13.5 million km2 mark, because there is still one month in which there could be a freeze, but I starting to doubt that we will reach the 13.75-14 million km2 range. Under 13.75 will be a huge low maximum.  :(

2017 still isn't far below the previous lowest years for date, though. I think that 13.75-14 remains the most likely outcome, but it all depends on conditions over the rest of February and March.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #78 on: February 13, 2017, 03:16:24 PM »
There are so many variables that can affect extent maximums that it's tough to make anything like a precise call. But a couple of things to note for those who *are* rolling the dice:

  • The earliest maximum in the satellite record took place on February 15, 2015. The 15th is, of course, the day after tomorrow.
  • Were extent to follow the average of the past ten seasons, this year's maximum would be 13.76M, and it would occur on March 7th. (That's nearly 200k below the record).
  • Were 2017 to follow the exact trajectory seen in the years 2010, 2012, or 2014, no new record low maximum would be set this year.

« Last Edit: February 13, 2017, 03:58:42 PM by Jim Pettit »

Deeenngee

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #79 on: February 13, 2017, 10:43:21 PM »
Given this thread's title, here's a graph I made that I also put up on the general IJIS thread yesterday. The legend is provocatively located - we'll see if 2017 can find its way around!

crandles

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #80 on: February 13, 2017, 10:47:29 PM »
The legend is provocatively located - we'll see if 2017 can find its way around!

I'll bag the vote for yes going above.  ;)

Deeenngee

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #81 on: February 13, 2017, 11:02:47 PM »
I agree Crandles, pretty sure it will. Interesting times either way.

Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #82 on: February 14, 2017, 12:15:37 AM »
Side observations on the graph:
- That grey area was significantly widened by 2016
- 2017 will have widened it significantly further this time next year (the first part at least, but quite likely at least some of the rest)
- Do peak temperature years (looking at 2015 and 2016) correlate with an earlier maximum? I'm sure there were plenty of local drivers as well, of course, but still.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #83 on: February 14, 2017, 12:34:25 AM »
Gosh, I thought the graph maker knew where 2017's day 55-57 was going to be!  ::) :o
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #84 on: February 14, 2017, 03:14:56 AM »
Given this thread's title, here's a graph I made that I also put up on the general IJIS thread yesterday. The legend is provocatively located - we'll see if 2017 can find its way around!

Great graph Deeenngee!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

TerryM

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #85 on: February 14, 2017, 04:07:09 AM »
Deeen


Wonderful graph!


The grey region says a lot.


Thanks
Terry

Deeenngee

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #86 on: February 14, 2017, 10:00:18 AM »
Thanks for the feedback. I'll do a weekly update on this one until we're definitely past the max. Then an equivalent for the minimum.

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #87 on: February 16, 2017, 05:30:38 AM »
IJIS:

13,673,982 km2(February 15, 2017)uo 127,281 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.

Looks like by mid-March it will reach 14,000,000+ km2. I voted too low. Looks like Neven is right again!
Feel The Burn!

Neven

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #88 on: February 16, 2017, 10:37:20 AM »
How do you mean, 'again'? I'm wrong on a continual basis.  ;)
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magnamentis

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #89 on: February 16, 2017, 03:11:47 PM »
IJIS:

13,673,982 km2(February 15, 2017)uo 127,281 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.

Looks like by mid-March it will reach 14,000,000+ km2. I voted too low. Looks like Neven is right again!

mid march?

if we reach 14m which seems at least well possible at the moment, we shall reach it within a week or so and not only by mid march, while IMO the next warmer weather will bring a huge drop and/or long plateau which if 14m has not beeen reached by then (during the current cold weather period) it could never be reached, because the next cold weather period will then fall into early/mid march which will be too late for many peripherals to seriously build significant ice across the board, especially when coming form an intermediate drop.

why i'm sure about the drop in warm weather is because the ice is thin/young at the edges and generally in bad condition.

let's see, just sharing my opinion, must by no means become true LOL

game on
« Last Edit: February 16, 2017, 03:42:07 PM by magnamentis »
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Paddy

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #90 on: February 16, 2017, 03:42:22 PM »
Two consecutive days of century rises... Just out of curiosity, does anyone know how often that's happened before this late in the freezing season? I'd guess not very often, partly because what helped make it so possible was starting so low two days ago.

Meanwhile, I'm going to stay out of all the speculation as to whether/when we'll go above 14m, expect to say that I expect the daily rise in extent to slow down a bit.

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #91 on: February 16, 2017, 04:39:37 PM »
Two consecutive days of century rises... Just out of curiosity, does anyone know how often that's happened before this late in the freezing season? I'd guess not very often, partly because what helped make it so possible was starting so low two days ago.

2014 saw back-to-back century rises on February 19 and 20. And 2012--year of the record low minimum--had a whopping one-day increase of greater than 186k km2 on March 01. So such rises, while not common, are not unprecedented.

FWIW, the 2015 IJIS extent maximum occurred on February 15...

CognitiveBias

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #92 on: February 16, 2017, 04:56:53 PM »
Weather for the next several days at least favors minor expansion everywhere except perhaps Okhotsk. Let's hope the max comes late and lingers....

Jim Williams

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #93 on: February 16, 2017, 06:13:38 PM »
Weather for the next several days at least favors minor expansion everywhere except perhaps Okhotsk. Let's hope the max comes late and lingers....

Why care?  All this hope or dis-hope bothers me.  We see things happening and we report our impressions.  If you do anything else you are not reporting ground truth.


CognitiveBias

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #94 on: February 16, 2017, 10:24:02 PM »
Weather for the next several days at least favors minor expansion everywhere except perhaps Okhotsk. Let's hope the max comes late and lingers....

Why care?  All this hope or dis-hope bothers me.  We see things happening and we report our impressions.  If you do anything else you are not reporting ground truth.

Please disregard anything in my post(s) you find bothersome. 


Deeenngee

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #95 on: February 20, 2017, 10:30:40 AM »
As mentioned a weekly update of my 2017 vs the rest maximum chart.
As we had a sharp uptick last week I've picked out 2005 for its impressive rollercoaster profile around the max. 

Deeenngee

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #96 on: February 27, 2017, 12:10:16 AM »
Another update here.
Will extent follow the typical path for the 2010s, upwards until mid-March.
Or is it a case of 'Averages? Pah!' ?

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #97 on: February 27, 2017, 01:52:29 PM »
2012--that record low minimum year--saw about 400k of extent added in the week-and-a-half between today's date and that year's maximum. But that was highly unusual; the average over the past ten years has been for extent to increase just another 100k or so, and max out on March 7.

FWIW, 2017 is currently 179k km2 below 2015's record low maximum. Neither 2016, 2015, 2013, 2008, or 2007 saw large enough extent increases from this date to go over that record this year. But even should 2017 not set a new record, I'm still more impressed (depressed?) by the fact that both January and February have seen the lowest average extent for their respective months on record, as did November and December of 2016. That makes four consecutive months with the lowest average, a feat which hasn't happened since summer of 2012.

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #98 on: February 28, 2017, 03:22:26 AM »
The glaring difference in the record of continuous monthly lows.

That was summer 2012.

This is winter.....I wonder what summer will bring. Also a lot of fracturing is occurring in the Arctic Ocean. The pack is moving a fair amount.

oren

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Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« Reply #99 on: February 28, 2017, 06:09:45 AM »
My updated prediction for this year's max: 13,839,032  ;D