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Neven

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2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 03, 2017, 01:14:06 PM »
Someone told me a new year has started, so here's a new thread to replace the 2016 version.

Have at it, spread the data.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2017, 03:44:29 PM »
Two areas I'll be watching come March/April/May:

1)  Beaufort on the Pacific side
2)  The 3 Archipelago's on the Atlantic side:  (a) Svalbard (b) Franz Joseph (c)  Severnaya Zemlya (just off the north Russian coast.....next to Franz Joseph)

Those 3 archipelago's + NE Greenland provide a "line of protection" for the sea ice.  Svalbard has been hammered over the past year, so that has already been eaten away.....and I expect the channels between the other two archipelago's to be hammered this coming spring/summer/fall.

Will be interesting to see if a "squeeze" develops on the sea ice this summer between the two advancing fronts of warm water from the Pacific and Atlantic sides.....  My main curiosity will be to see how quickly the Atlantic side melting can be advanced in the spring and early summer.   Can it be "softened up" enough....so that when we get to "serious melting" in June/July/August.....that a large bite can be taken out of the sea ice and move to a significant new record low.

 

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2017, 05:58:29 PM »
Two areas I'll be watching come March/April/May:

1)  Beaufort on the Pacific side
2)  The 3 Archipelago's on the Atlantic side:  (a) Svalbard (b) Franz Joseph (c)  Severnaya Zemlya (just off the north Russian coast.....next to Franz Joseph)

Those 3 archipelago's + NE Greenland provide a "line of protection" for the sea ice.  Svalbard has been hammered over the past year, so that has already been eaten away.....and I expect the channels between the other two archipelago's to be hammered this coming spring/summer/fall.

Will be interesting to see if a "squeeze" develops on the sea ice this summer between the two advancing fronts of warm water from the Pacific and Atlantic sides.....  My main curiosity will be to see how quickly the Atlantic side melting can be advanced in the spring and early summer.   Can it be "softened up" enough....so that when we get to "serious melting" in June/July/August.....that a large bite can be taken out of the sea ice and move to a significant new record low.

 

As will I and concur; the open water in the Barents and around Svalbard is already dangerous.  That much open water north of 70 degrees latitude is a huge heat trap, and unlike in the past when it was covered with ice, will start the capture just as soon as the sun starts to reappear there in a few weeks.  That represents "free heat" for the melt season, even before it starts in earnest.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2017, 07:47:58 PM »
Two areas I'll be watching come March/April/May:

1)  Beaufort on the Pacific side
2)  The 3 Archipelago's on the Atlantic side:  (a) Svalbard (b) Franz Joseph (c)  Severnaya Zemlya (just off the north Russian coast.....next to Franz Joseph)

Those 3 archipelago's + NE Greenland provide a "line of protection" for the sea ice.  Svalbard has been hammered over the past year, so that has already been eaten away.....and I expect the channels between the other two archipelago's to be hammered this coming spring/summer/fall.

Will be interesting to see if a "squeeze" develops on the sea ice this summer between the two advancing fronts of warm water from the Pacific and Atlantic sides.....  My main curiosity will be to see how quickly the Atlantic side melting can be advanced in the spring and early summer.   Can it be "softened up" enough....so that when we get to "serious melting" in June/July/August.....that a large bite can be taken out of the sea ice and move to a significant new record low.

 

As will I and concur; the open water in the Barents and around Svalbard is already dangerous.  That much open water north of 70 degrees latitude is a huge heat trap, and unlike in the past when it was covered with ice, will start the capture just as soon as the sun starts to reappear there in a few weeks.  That represents "free heat" for the melt season, even before it starts in earnest.

Just a note that in 2014 Svalbard was free of ice in Feb/March but then cold weather pushed the ice well into Barents where it did not melt until October or November... we never know

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2017, 08:47:47 PM »
The general flow of floes in the Arctic is toward the Canadian Arctic and Atlantic (even considering the Beaufort Gyre), so that if the ice front on the Atlantic side remained fairly stable this coming NH spring, I would expect catastrophe on the Pacific or Siberian sides, because the Atlantic side would be constantly replenished.  I think this is more likely than the reverse (stable Pacific side with early ice retreat on the Atlantic side), even with the Atlantic as warm as it is.  Given how mobile and thin this sea ice is thus far, I won't be surprised to see early retreats from all the non-Canadian & non-Greenland border areas.
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Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2017, 08:35:06 AM »
Thanks Neven for a place where we can discuss the data.

I take the liberty to report global data here as well.

The first 2017 data is starting to appear in the graph. As we are heading for February when the annual minimum of global sea ice area and extent is to be expected (from experience in the past 38 years at least) we can have a look at our heading.

Both area and extent are still well below anything else in the data set, making new records likely. Extent is still above the annual minimum of many years, but area is nearing the lowest level ever quickly. Current global sea ice area is 14.253 Mm2, 2006 and 2016 annual minimums were 14.196 and 13.961  Mm2.

I have assembled a global sea ice page here:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice

Attaching the global area and extent, as well as global sea ice volume, modeled by GIOMAS. The volume graph basically tells the same story as the other two.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2017, 01:46:10 PM »
(Apologies for the delay, Christmas and travelling...)

Update for the week to December 31st

The current 5 day trailing average is on 12,506,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,608,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,042,000km2, a decrease from -1,372,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -434,000km2, a decrease from -645,000km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, down from lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +91.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +44.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +61.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +64.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +49.5k/day.



The extent increase in December was the 2nd largest on record while the average extent was the lowest on record.




Buddy

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2017, 02:16:21 PM »
I have assembled a global sea ice page here:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice

Sweet...as always.

Wipneus....on your GIOMAS chart....did the first half of January and the second half of December get deleted or "left behind" some how?  LOVE the volume chart....just curious about the last half of December.

Thanks....
« Last Edit: January 04, 2017, 02:32:12 PM by Buddy »
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crandles

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2017, 02:28:39 PM »
just curious about the last half of December.

Think there is just one data point for each month shown in the middle of that month. It might be better with a straight line extrapolation for the two half months between the dec and jan data points but could be awkward to graph that without appearing to have 14 data points in the year.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2017, 02:33:43 PM »
Think there is just one data point for each month shown in the middle of that month

Got it.  Thanks....
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2017, 02:44:40 PM »
just curious about the last half of December.

Think there is just one data point for each month shown in the middle of that month. It might be better with a straight line extrapolation for the two half months between the dec and jan data points but could be awkward to graph that without appearing to have 14 data points in the year.
plus would be impossible to do that properly before february.
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2017, 02:59:23 PM »
That GIOMAS chart by Wipneus shows a rather "startling" figure:

Global sea ice VOLUME is 15% below the prior record low volume.  I probably don't have to tell most of you this....but 15% of VOLUME IS A LOT.

NOTE:  23.25 vs 27.5 = 15% drop

Addendum:

I'll let the mathematics and science experts wrestle with the math (joules).....but just think in "general terms" of the amount of energy that is now "freed up" by the loss of 15% of ice volume to either:  (1) warm the oceans more, or (2) warm the atmosphere more.

That loss of ice volume has to be truly "significant" in scientific terms.

« Last Edit: January 04, 2017, 03:12:58 PM by Buddy »
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2017, 03:05:06 PM »
plus would be impossible to do that properly before february.

For 16/17 yes, but for previous years it could be done. Putting a small symbol on the 12 actual data points and not putting one on the ends of the lines might sound tricky - perhaps possible by graph the 12 data points with symbols and also graph a 14 data-point line without symbols. That seems considerable extra work (twice number of lines, non evenly spaced data-points, and specifying same coloured lines) and would probably confuse people for some reason or another. So it is fine as it is.

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #13 on: January 04, 2017, 05:06:37 PM »
Is this any improvement?

- shifted the monthly labels to the right to indicate that <month> covers the interval between tick marks;
- were possible connect lines to the last month of the previous year and the first of the next (which lie outside the drawing box).

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2017, 05:14:01 PM »
Is this any improvement?

Yes...I think that is "visually" better.  It doesn't have the first half of Jan and the second half of Dec column's "missing".  So it takes away some idiot (like me) asking about it :)

I like....again....GREAT JOB.  I LOVE graphs like that....that tell a story (even when the ending is bad  :'().

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2017, 09:10:55 PM »
- shifted the monthly labels to the right to indicate that <month> covers the interval between tick marks
What about monthly labels in the middle of the column they span? Or little double-headed arrows for monthly spans?

- where possible connect lines to the last month of the previous year and the first of the next (which lie outside the drawing box).

What about extending them out to (in this instance) to their Jan extent? Right now they just go halfway. No harm in repeating a bit of the cycle (though colors change as year turns over).

Maybe make more leg room now for 2016/17 by extending ordinate to 21 or 22? Always silly accusations if a line dips below the abscissa and a tweet storm when someone shifts a graph up or down.

Note the gap to 2012 widened between Nov and Dec, from 119 to 138 pixels. So if this keeps up, ordinate would have to go to 19 or 20.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2017, 11:51:40 PM »
That graph represents a shocking increase in global ocean heat content. The extraordinarily early Antarctic melt will lead to Antarctic waters soaking up more solar energy this summer than they have since who knows when. The lack of ice in the peripheral Arctic seas will lead to early uptake of solar energy before the equinox. The snow that has been generated by storms over the peripheral seas will insulate the thin Arctic ice and keep it from thickening much this winter.

It looks like we may have crossed a into a new polar climate regime with the 2015-2016 El Niño.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2017, 04:19:53 AM »
I'd be tempted to think so re the new regime, but I also thought 2012 might push the Arctic that way, before getting a bit of a surprise from 2013 and 2014.

The next five years could be interesting though.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2017, 09:30:10 AM »
if you look at the long term temperature graph ....for global average temperature...the step up after the 1998 El Nino is obvious...only the la Nina years of 1999 and 2000 are below the previous global record year 1997.......and since 1998 the positive feedbacks have started to have an increasing effect

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #19 on: January 05, 2017, 10:25:14 AM »
- shifted the monthly labels to the right to indicate that <month> covers the interval between tick marks
What about monthly labels in the middle of the column they span? Or little double-headed arrows for monthly spans?

- where possible connect lines to the last month of the previous year and the first of the next (which lie outside the drawing box).

What about extending them out to (in this instance) to their Jan extent? Right now they just go halfway. No harm in repeating a bit of the cycle (though colors change as year turns over).

Maybe make more leg room now for 2016/17 by extending ordinate to 21 or 22? Always silly accusations if a line dips below the abscissa and a tweet storm when someone shifts a graph up or down.

Note the gap to 2012 widened between Nov and Dec, from 119 to 138 pixels. So if this keeps up, ordinate would have to go to 19 or 20.

A-Team, labels in the middle was preferred, just did not see yesterday a simple way to do it: labels seem to be always attached to tick marks. Today with a fresh look, figured out how to do it with major/minor ticks.

Further, I extended the y scale a bit for the looks. I will have to look at the graphs at the next update (which might take a long time, GIOMAS updates are very irregular) anyway.

I will think about widening the x-axis. It could be confusing.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #20 on: January 05, 2017, 11:33:01 AM »
I'd like to see a version where zero is included in the y-axis..

oren

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #21 on: January 05, 2017, 12:24:13 PM »
I'd like to see a version where zero is included in the y-axis..
No worries, in a few years even the auto-scale might get us there.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #22 on: January 06, 2017, 12:44:49 PM »
extended the y scale a bit  s.  widening the x-axis. It could be confusing.
A couple of thoughts on the product distribution chain, the reachable target audience and  effective communication.

-- If just forum readers, then there are few constraints on size. The graph is inherently too complex to fit the 700 pixel dimensional constraint, ditto for the extended width with scroll bar. However it is not an animation so file size will be small even if it is 1500 pixels wide png or jpg. In that case, the forum will resize it by unknown means* to 700 pixels width and that must be intriguing enough that viewers will click on to the full size.

-- If post-forum to say Twitter, posters like Zack are able to distribute up to 1800x1200 images via that medium. The normal Twitter image on my monitor is 503x336. The larger format allowed would insure that your graphic could be distributed intact.

Note poor programming at Twitter HQ has lead to jpg:large in url terminations which browsers are processing to jpg-large which is an invalid file format not recognized by other software (until the -large is removed). This is likely related to bad programming at Twitter that is causing failure of contextual mouse menus, ie copy/paste, in their re-bundling of .mov to html5 'GIF'. It may however be intentional, to wall off Twitter from the rest of the internet, forcing people into its 'ecosystem'.

-- The WaPo is the last remaining English-language newspaper in the US covering climate change and weather at any depth and likeliest to cover significant developments. The graphic would not work at all in the WaPo print edition. Most people however would see it online, probably on an iPhone or similar with 'retinal' resolution but nonetheless tiny image (very little physical screen width).

The WaPo would reproduce the image accurately and link in to the forum original. For that reason, careful explanatory text -- even of the obvious -- is important. Also explanation of potential confusing aspects. Most other online sources like buzzfeed would simply copy the WaPo article but there's no assurance or control over image size retention or links to original context.

*Below is one of Zack's high quality Twitter images. I'm just checking here to see how the forum thumbnails large images down. That can be done by subtracting the thumbnail from the four common reductions schemes (bicubic, sinc, bilinear, none) to see if it is any of those. It might instead be lossy jpg compression in which case it won't rescale back to the original size.

So far it's emerged that the forum allows an additional 74 pixels (to 774 width) in its scroll bar configuration (which may be related to mac vs dos dpi differences of 72 vs 78). Twitter, on an iMac at 'actual size' in Opera browser, shows the thumbnail as 505x338 which includes a 1 pixel boundary of 230 gray and slightly rounded corners that chop off any information that was there in the original. Zack's 1800x1200 reduces correctly in gimp to 700 x 467 (ie 466.66667) whereas the forum reduces it to 700x467. The forum has oddly offset the title line by 11 pixels vertically and has utilized lossy compression.

In summary, it's difficult to predict what viewers see because of device variations and different choices made at Twitter, Simple Machines, browser designers and device hardware. However as long as viewers are willing to download an intact original, the potential is there to preserve scientific accuracy in the chain of transmission.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2017, 01:40:04 PM by A-Team »

epiphyte

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #23 on: January 06, 2017, 05:28:29 PM »
So far it's emerged that the forum allows an additional 74 pixels (to 774 width) in its scroll bar configuration/quote]

The ubiquitous presence of that scrollbar is a source of constant irritation, to me at least, since most of the graphs posted have a contour key superimposed on the extreme right side of the image, which (AFAIK, on OSX + chrome) makes it impossible to see both the Y-axis labels and the key at the same time without opening the image on a separate tab.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #24 on: January 08, 2017, 05:06:18 PM »
Update for the week to January 7th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 12,858,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,852,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,142,000km2, an increase from -1,042,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -429,000km2, a decrease from -434,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, up from 2nd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +50.3k/day, compared to the long term average of +64.7k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +49.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +41.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +63.1k/day.



The extent increase so far this January is the 18th smallest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 67.9k/day is required (at least +64.9k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a gain of less than 28.7k/day (less than 22.1k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 49.1k/day (gain of 37.8k/day with single day values).


Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #25 on: January 13, 2017, 02:41:51 PM »
Global sea ice area now record low.

Huge NSIDC global drops: quad century extent, triple century area. Data from Uni Hamburg and Uni Bremen seem to confirm this, so no satellite failure.

As a consequence, global area has now dropped below the all time (satellite era) low set in February 2016. Global extent is at the fourth position after 2016, 2011 and 2006.

Current positions:

Extent:
2016-02-17, 16.708708
2006-01-30, 16.766292
2011-02-22, 16.789130
2017-01-12, 16.895409
2005-02-07, 17.136978

Area:
2017-01-12, 13.707421
2016-02-21, 13.961025
2006-02-24, 14.196194
2011-01-23, 14.379586
2005-02-22, 14.472310


Paddy

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #26 on: January 13, 2017, 03:53:08 PM »
And surely it won't be long before global extent is at a record low too. The question, I suppose, is how low they both go.

CognitiveBias

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #27 on: January 13, 2017, 03:59:44 PM »
I'm curious about global volume.  Anyone have data?

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #28 on: January 13, 2017, 04:06:48 PM »
I'm curious about global volume.  Anyone have data?

I have assembled a global sea ice page here:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice

At the bottom is a GIOMAS global sea ice volume graph, also attached.

oren

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #29 on: January 13, 2017, 04:08:38 PM »
I was just about to post the same. I recommend to bookmark this page, and a big thanks to the untiring Wipneus.

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #30 on: January 13, 2017, 04:21:22 PM »
I was just about to post the same. I recommend to bookmark this page, and a big thanks to the untiring Wipneus.

The VOLUME chart is......STAGGERING.  Area or extent can be effected by weather rather quickly...but VOLUME.  That has to be a function of weather AND OCEAN TEMPS.  And once the volume has gone away....it isn't going to come back as quickly.

Not good.....

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Neven

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #31 on: January 13, 2017, 04:38:25 PM »
Thanks, Wipneus, I was about to ask you to notify me when the record(s) would get broken, but here we are...

Post is up on the ASIB.

BTW, those two global sea ice area and extent graphs are now included on the ASIG.
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magnamentis

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #32 on: January 13, 2017, 06:29:18 PM »
Thanks, Wipneus, I was about to ask you to notify me when the record(s) would get broken, but here we are...

Post is up on the ASIB.

BTW, those two global sea ice area and extent graphs are now included on the ASIG.


thanks for inclusion, just wanted to propose that :-)
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #33 on: January 13, 2017, 07:20:26 PM »
Wipneus: As the sea ice minimum around Antarctica is roughly a month away as well as the Arctic maximum is 1-2 months away, will you make any estimations on gains/drops? This year is extremely interesting as we might get

* a record low SIE minimum around Antarctica
* a record low SIE maximum in Arctic

Best, LMV


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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #34 on: January 14, 2017, 08:41:18 AM »
Staggering and terrifying.  I wonder how much of that was caused by the el nino and how much of that is just the new normal for the arctic and antarctic. 

oren

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #35 on: January 14, 2017, 10:40:57 AM »
In the antarctic I am pretty sure it's nino-driven for the most part. In the arctic though it's mostly the long term trend that has passed another phase shift.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2017, 08:57:25 PM by oren »

Carex

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #36 on: January 14, 2017, 08:24:21 PM »
Do I eyeball that volume deficit correctly at ~ 4,000km3?  Or about the volume of fresh water that humans use per year. (volume source https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-dont-we-get-our-drinking-water-from-the-ocean/)

Wipneus

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #37 on: January 15, 2017, 02:19:09 PM »
Global Sea Ice Extent is now record low.

Global Sea Ice Area broke the minimum record a couple of days ago. Now a 150k drop makes the global sea ice extent drop below all previous (in the satellite era) records. That is about one month before the annual minimum normally can be expected.

How low will it go? Will the global ice ever return to "normality"? I have no idea.

                                                 normalized normalized
             global   global    global    global     global     global
      date   extent     area  ext.anom area.anom   ext.anom  area.anom
2017-01-05   17.936   14.426    -2.298    -2.025     -3.277     -3.563
2017-01-06   17.699   14.186    -2.424    -2.211     -3.409     -3.891
2017-01-07   17.618   14.037    -2.398    -2.308     -3.335     -4.067
2017-01-08   17.573   14.066    -2.340    -2.228     -3.237     -3.936
2017-01-09   17.445   14.058    -2.368    -2.185     -3.277     -3.880
2017-01-10   17.310   14.075    -2.406    -2.119     -3.339     -3.786
2017-01-11   17.330   14.025    -2.295    -2.124     -3.190     -3.814
2017-01-12   16.895   13.707    -2.644    -2.398     -3.681     -4.333
2017-01-13   16.849   13.711    -2.608    -2.355     -3.641     -4.283
2017-01-14   16.693   13.659    -2.687    -2.368     -3.763     -4.334



Archimid

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #38 on: January 15, 2017, 02:47:29 PM »
Yet one more graph probably going literally off the charts. I bet that if some one was keeping track of all climate and biologic time series and could somehow normalize them, an increase in literal  "off the charts" events could be detected. If some negative feedback does not kick in soon, the number of literally "off the charts" events will keep increasing.
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DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #39 on: January 15, 2017, 05:09:59 PM »
Yet one more graph probably going literally off the charts. I bet that if some one was keeping track of all climate and biologic time series and could somehow normalize them, an increase in literal  "off the charts" events could be detected. If some negative feedback does not kick in soon, the number of literally "off the charts" events will keep increasing.
.

 With such a large external forcing applied so rapidly, I don't see a natural negative feedback that is both large and not previously detected/theorised , appearing all of the sudden.  Unless it is a nuclear war, asteroid impact, geoengineering or us stopping and reversing CO2 emissions.

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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #40 on: January 15, 2017, 07:02:14 PM »
Update for the week to January 14th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 12,906,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,855,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,387,000km2, an increase from -1,142,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -556,000km2, an increase from -429,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +6.9k/day, compared to the long term average of +41.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +63.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +39.9k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +33.5k/day.



The extent increase so far this January is the 3rd smallest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 80.7k/day is required (at least +94.9k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a gain of less than 25.4k/day (less than 32.3k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 54.2k/day (gain of 64.8k/day with single day values).


Sigmetnow

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #41 on: January 16, 2017, 12:26:09 AM »
Eric Holthaus:  Wait for it... yikes.

Watch the GIF at the link below:

Final version of the Global Sea Ice Area spiral plot #climatechange #globalwarming
https://mobile.twitter.com/kevpluck/status/817126011435446273
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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #42 on: January 16, 2017, 11:09:06 AM »
thank you to share this one  :)
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Jim Pettit

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #43 on: January 16, 2017, 03:37:40 PM »
Things still pointing at record low extent maxima--though, as always, we'll see:

IJIS:



NSIDC:



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DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #44 on: January 16, 2017, 04:20:05 PM »
What are the respective minimum maxima for the graphs below?
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Buddy

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #45 on: January 16, 2017, 04:56:19 PM »
Things still pointing at record low extent maxima--though, as always, we'll see:

Not good.  From Jim's chart above.... "Lower highs....and lower lows" from a "charting standpoint."  If you look at the bright red lines representing sea ice anomaly you see those "lower highs and lower lows" clearly.  In 2017 it looks like that 3 million K2 anomaly could come into play this fall.

And from a FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCE STANDPOINT....that is what I would expect...something in that "ballpark". :-[



 



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charles_oil

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #46 on: January 16, 2017, 05:53:15 PM »
Jim -

Could your excellent "projection" charts be annotated with the respective record low maximum lines as that is the current concern (they just have the record low minimum lines) ?

Thanks

Ajpope85

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #47 on: January 16, 2017, 07:35:44 PM »
Eric Holthaus:  Wait for it... yikes.

Watch the GIF at the link below:

Final version of the Global Sea Ice Area spiral plot #climatechange #globalwarming
https://mobile.twitter.com/kevpluck/status/817126011435446273

That almost looks like a decaying satellite orbit that's about to smash into a planet.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #48 on: January 16, 2017, 07:46:50 PM »
Jim -

Could your excellent "projection" charts be annotated with the respective record low maximum lines as that is the current concern (they just have the record low minimum lines) ?

Thanks

What are the respective minimum maxima for the graphs below?


As requested:

IJIS:


NSIDC:


charles_oil

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Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #49 on: January 16, 2017, 07:49:46 PM »
Thanks Jim ...

So looks like no year since 2003 has seen enough growth from this sate that we could get above the lowest maximum..... and these were presumably much less stormy years.  Curiously 2012 looks like the highest growth from this point... till the drop starts !