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Author Topic: IJIS  (Read 1570484 times)

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4950 on: September 15, 2017, 07:24:41 AM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
Life's hard, but we need to go on in a way or another...

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4951 on: September 15, 2017, 07:44:55 AM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
Life's hard, but we need to go on in a way or another...
Beyond the absurdity of somehow making denialists pay, I have to say I'd love nothing better than to to have them proved right... but I won't be, nor will the climate cooperate.

What we are seeing is the climate equivalent of a fugue, as we go through a period of chaotic behavior as we transition from year round ice coverage to seasonal coverage.
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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4952 on: September 15, 2017, 10:58:22 AM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
I highly mislike your statement. And the arctic needs more ice, not less, and when it does go ice free we will all pay.

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4953 on: September 15, 2017, 11:06:26 AM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
I highly mislike your statement. And the arctic needs more ice, not less, and when it does go ice free we will all pay.

He's just trolling. He's made the same joke four or five times already.
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Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4954 on: September 15, 2017, 01:33:52 PM »
This has been a weirdly flat and boring end to the season.  Variability in extent over the past 30 days* is the lowest it's been since before 2007:



* I.e., the standard deviation of extent during the 30 days from Aug 16-Sep 14 each year

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4955 on: September 15, 2017, 01:57:34 PM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!

you mean to value being right and revenge (they have to pay) over the health and wellbeing fauna and flora ?

this is an approach that caused most wars in the past and still does. we need a healthy stable climate and not a catastrophe just to feel we were right. i was wrong about this melting season when it came to my expectations for second lowest and that's GOOD not bad, for example LOL
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gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4956 on: September 15, 2017, 02:38:43 PM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice! 

 we need a healthy stable climate
Methinks perhaps Unmex Chingon was into black humour.
The melting season is not quite over - PIOMAS for september and october will be interesting.
Even if it is over, this does not mean we are any closer to a healthy stable climate.
My speculation is that perhaps AGW is leading to changes in seasonal weather patterns all over the place at a rate of knots that may become even harder to predict.
e.g. How come extent loss sort of died after August 14th?
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ra3000

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4957 on: September 15, 2017, 04:32:43 PM »
Even though we may have a notion on how Climate works, we can't predict exactly what will be the state of the Arctic after the melting / refreeze seasons for instance.
Across the whole summer average temperatures have been relatively cool and, despite of this, we have seen drops in extension that didn't seem to go in hand with the temperatures we were collecting. It hasn't been until the end of August when we have started to see things decreases flatten.
I think we shouldn't break our heads, the melting season is over (or very close to) and now we have the Big picture of all of it, and its summary would be: relatively cool temperatures, extension area low, following the declining trend (not only in extension, but also on multiyear ice, slushy, etc) but obviously there is a correlation between temperatures and ice, so that's maybe why some expected lower extension numbers, but this does contradict the trend at all in my opinion. We obviously should try to keep learning from the Cryosphere, and to find out the intrincancies of the Climate, like for example why extension numbers kept falling fast until almost the end of the season despite having almost a whole summer without large positive temperature anomalies? 

Gray-Wolf

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4958 on: September 15, 2017, 08:20:07 PM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
I highly mislike your statement. And the arctic needs more ice, not less, and when it does go ice free we will all pay.

He's just trolling. He's made the same joke four or five times already.

I know it is OT but I'm suffering similar on some of the forums I frequent.After telling the board I had given up and that they ( the resident Denialists) had 'won' they have gone bonkers?

Some who quit posting there years ago are back giving me grief about my accepting that we are now beyond the point where we could have avoided some of the worse the science shows us ( esp. when we continue on beyond B.A.U.?).
I now realise they are just 'malcontents' and without me there is nothing to be horrid about?
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Feeltheburn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4959 on: September 15, 2017, 10:36:50 PM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
I highly mislike your statement. And the arctic needs more ice, not less, and when it does go ice free we will all pay.

He's just trolling. He's made the same joke four or five times already.

I think he's a denier speaking sarcastically.
Feel The Burn!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4960 on: September 16, 2017, 09:46:58 AM »
IJIS:

4,541,251 km2(September 15, 2017)up 42,078 km2 and 7th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Quantum

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4961 on: September 16, 2017, 12:46:27 PM »
I think I actually predicted 4.5 as the minimum in some of the sea ice prediction threads. Is there anyway to verify this?

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4962 on: September 16, 2017, 01:28:39 PM »
I think I actually predicted 4.5 as the minimum in some of the sea ice prediction threads. Is there anyway to verify this?
When you enter each of these threads, at the top, you will see the bin you voted for shown in bold font.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4963 on: September 17, 2017, 10:33:39 AM »
IJIS:

 4,577,641 km2
(September 16, 2017)up 36,390 km2 and 7th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

crandles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4964 on: September 17, 2017, 12:40:45 PM »
Only following 2005 path would get to a new minimum, so it is getting close to being able to call we are past minimum on IJIS.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4965 on: September 17, 2017, 05:15:59 PM »
I'll go out on a (very short) limb and state my opinion that 2017 IJIS extent did indeed bottom out at 4.47 km2 on September 9, for a sixth place finish.

« Last Edit: September 17, 2017, 08:39:02 PM by Jim Pettit »

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4966 on: September 17, 2017, 07:36:17 PM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
I highly mislike your statement. And the arctic needs more ice, not less, and when it does go ice free we will all pay.

He's just trolling. He's made the same joke four or five times already.

Trolling with little talent.

Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4967 on: September 17, 2017, 10:32:19 PM »
Cross-posting from the melting season thread.

(I think I might call this a running back graph for any NFL fans out there)
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crandles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4968 on: September 18, 2017, 01:54:08 AM »
I predict a successful running back that makes it all the way to day 365 endzone. ;)

Jim Hunt

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4969 on: September 18, 2017, 08:40:33 AM »
I'll go out on a (very short) limb and state my opinion that 2017 IJIS extent did indeed bottom out at 4.47 km2 on September 9, for a sixth place finish.


Be careful Jim. I went out on that self same limb a couple of days ago:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/09/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#Sep-16
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4970 on: September 18, 2017, 01:30:02 PM »
I'll go out on a (very short) limb and state my opinion that 2017 IJIS extent did indeed bottom out at 4.47 km2 on September 9, for a sixth place finish.


Be careful Jim. I went out on that self same limb a couple of days ago:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/09/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#Sep-16


That was brave of you. ;-) But I'm even more confident this morning: IJIS extent has increased seven of the past eight days, for a net gain of 118k, and since there is simply no historical precedence for losing that much sea ice extent here in the second half of September, my personal opinion (as opposed to the "official" ASIF one) is that we bottomed out last week, and it's all uphill for the next six months or so...

Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4971 on: September 18, 2017, 03:15:28 PM »
I'll join you on that limb... so here are the daily minima for each year, 2003-2017:



Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4972 on: September 18, 2017, 03:26:43 PM »
Cross-posting from the melting season thread.

(I think I might call this a running back graph for any NFL fans out there)

I really like that graph.  Very nice design.

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4973 on: September 18, 2017, 04:13:30 PM »
I'll join the discussion to make my very humble point. In my opinion the minimum has been set and will not be updated. My assumption is based on the synoptic charts available today which, in spite of some compaction on chukchi and beaufort in the next few days, show an overall considerable temperature drop in many other sectors of the Arctic. Moreover some dispersion towards Kara, Barents and Laptev will be achieved after the action of the LP forming in the next few hours.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4974 on: September 18, 2017, 07:28:54 PM »
IJIS:

4,590,075 km2
(September 17, 2017)up 12,434 km2 and 7th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4975 on: September 19, 2017, 05:42:00 AM »
IJIS:

 4,593,958 km2(September 18, 2017)up 3,883 km2 and 7th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4976 on: September 19, 2017, 09:07:08 AM »
Cross-posting from the melting season thread.

(I think I might call this a running back graph for any NFL fans out there)

I really like that graph.  Very nice design.

(Thank you, that's good of you. Style-wise I've learnt a lot from Tamino over at Open Mind and all who advocate more minimalist design.)
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