Why is everyone getting so upset? It's important that all sides are heard.
And I'm not at all convinced that anyone has more evidence on their side -- it comes down to interpretation. I do agree that we should try to keep a spirit of camaraderie, but it's hardly consistent to accuse someone of ruining this right after you yourself put them down.
I think it takes guts to go out on a limb and make non-conservative projections.
Let's all respect one another.
I don't have a problem with people going out on a limb, per se. If they do it using data that is highly unreliable, I will say so. What I do have a problem with, is this atmosphere that is being created that some who are going out on a limb are being ridiculed and oppressed, but then, of course, they turn out to be right, and everyone glosses over it and acts as if they agreed all along. That is what magnamentis is doing every now and again, and it gets my hackles up.
He does it again in his reaction to my comment:
even though i did not go that far the entire story is not about who is grasping what but about the various reactions of people who as well only go out to a limb without evidence but are repeatedly proven wrong while some of those who are ridiculed have often if not mostly been spot on.
i won't go so far to collect all the post but it's there, in writing and yes there are people who have an eye for the bigger picture and nothing is wrong with it.
This is both vague and generalizing. Who is being ridiculed, but has often if not mostly been spot on? What purpose does it serve to even talk like this? Who is implying there is anything wrong with 'people who have an eye for the bigger picture'?
It's almost impossible to be spot on all the time when forecasting a melting season. Every year since 2012 we have people going out on a limb, saying the ice never looked worse (without comparing to previous years) and this will be the year, every year the poll results are way below the final number, but so far, no year has even come close to beating 2012, quite simply because weather conditions prevented it.
One year someone going out on a limb, will be right, but I think the data will point to it as well, and so many will be going out on that limb. It's the number one thing everyone here is on the look-out for! But the important thing will be that Arctic sea ice records are being broken again, not who said it first (and was then mocked, blah blah blah).
Or take this:
but one thing is totally clear and not disputable, to mock someone because he uses LOL or emphasizes a compliment by the use of several nice words instead of one is clearly
OT, unnecessary and clearly based on aversion which from the text one can see is
based on an inferiority complex and i dont' mean you, hope that's clear.
Who is mocked because he uses LOL? By whom, by the whole Forum community? And even if he is, so what? Is it relevant to what we're doing here as a collective?
This vague generalizing, about one group of clairvoyants being ridiculed by the masses, is polarizing poison for a forum. It creates an atmosphere of 'told you so' and forces people to get entrenched in opinions. So, going out on a limb is fine, but there's no need for the arrogant, pre-triumphant tone and the persecution Galileo-complex. This isn't WUWT, or some forum full of sceptics.