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Author Topic: Global Surface Air Temperatures  (Read 257202 times)

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1400 on: April 17, 2017, 04:30:11 PM »
Yes but,

2016 averaged 1.24 for YT Mar but ended up at only 0.98 so it can end up lower by up to 0.26 or perhaps more. 2016 El Nino had peaked so the 2 month delay effect was waning so so surprise that year ended up quite a lot lower. However the non linear 10 month delay effect is now running out so we can expect 2017 to also be quite a bit lower.

Still, at the beginning of 2016 Gavin Schmidt projected that by now we would be about +1.0C above pre-industrial but the 12-month GISS land and ocean GMSTA above pre-industrial through the end of March 2017 was over +1.18C.  So should not feel too comforted by these new numbers.
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1401 on: April 17, 2017, 05:42:29 PM »
I have a check-in with skeptical sciences that we will be sitting at +1.5C above pre-industrial for the 12-month average ending in May 2018.
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1402 on: April 18, 2017, 01:34:04 PM »
Here is a "stab" at a POSSIBLE new channel being formed.  Again....this is NOT rocket science...only a stab at what "might be forming."

The "fundamentals" certainly seem to be in place for this to have already started:

1)  increasing CO2 and methane
2)  Current and future decreases in China air pollution....leading to more warming
3)  Increase in various feedback effects.....permafrost, ice melt, wildfires, etc...

So...the fundamentals seem (yes...that is a loaded word) to support the possibility/likelihood of "warmer faster".....

Clearly....we won't know for at least a handful of years....maybe more.  But this is something that we certainly could be looking IN THE NEARTERM in the years ahead....



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bbr2314

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1403 on: April 19, 2017, 12:44:37 AM »
Does anyone else find it slightly disturbing that our last episode of sustained major warming culminated in 1945, the same year that saw the peak of global slaughter and the first use of nuclear weapons? I hope it isn't a precedent for what's to come in the next few years...

Side note: would it be possible to compare the above temperature graph to annual global GDP growth? I strongly suspect there is a substantial correlation.

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1404 on: April 19, 2017, 03:31:57 PM »
Side note: would it be possible to compare the above temperature graph to annual global GDP growth? I strongly suspect there is a substantial correlation.

Yes...I would suspect there is a pretty good correlation as well.  Of course.....GOING FOREWARD, there doesn't HAVE to be.  People are JUST NOW beginning to "figure out" what a sustainable world will look like.  And it doesn't mean using up everything in the world.

We have a LONG WAYS TO GO both on the environmental front....as well as the economic and social fronts.  Some interesting challenges ahead of us in the next decade or two.  Since facts and truth NEVER GO AWAY....I suspect we will stumble TOWARDS THEM....but not at the pace we could or should.   
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1405 on: April 19, 2017, 07:11:35 PM »
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1406 on: April 19, 2017, 07:33:31 PM »
« Reply #1405 on: Today at 07:11:35 PM »

So....you're saying there's more upside? ;)
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TerryM

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1407 on: April 19, 2017, 07:48:32 PM »

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1408 on: April 19, 2017, 08:20:57 PM »
NOAA's NCEI March temperature anomaly does not make comfortable reading. Possibly the only surprise is just how much it is ahead of 3rd place.


FrankS

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1409 on: April 21, 2017, 07:35:32 PM »
I think the most interesting part of yesterday's NOAA climate call was the "horse race" temperature graph showing that isn't inconceivable that 2017 could pass 2016 as the hottest on record:


Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1410 on: April 23, 2017, 01:12:15 AM »
Berkeley Earth have just updated their BEST figures. No prizes for guessing which year has the 2nd highest March value.

2016 +1.227 deg C
2017 +1.123 deg C
2002 +0.867 deg C
2010 +0.866 deg C
2015 +0.826 deg C

2016 & 2017 are streets ahead in terms of y-t-d anomaly.


http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Global/Land_and_Ocean_complete.txt

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1411 on: April 23, 2017, 02:14:10 PM »
From CCI-Reanalyzer:-
World Temp Anomaly     0.31 degrees Celsius,
World SST anomaly        0.39 degrees Celsius.

I first noticed this yesterday. Is it unusual for global temperature anomaly to be less than global SST anomaly?

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1412 on: April 23, 2017, 04:19:29 PM »
From CCI-Reanalyzer:-
World Temp Anomaly     0.31 degrees Celsius,
World SST anomaly        0.39 degrees Celsius.

I first noticed this yesterday. Is it unusual for global temperature anomaly to be less than global SST anomaly?

Using HadCRUT and HadSST monthly values...

From Jan 1850 to Feb 2017 (inclusive), there were 862 occasions (out of 2006 pairs of values) in which the SST value was higher.

From Jan 2000 to Feb 2017, the ratio plummets to just 11 from 206.

The last such occurrence was October 2016, and the time before that was July 2014.

wehappyfew

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1413 on: April 23, 2017, 04:34:26 PM »
Unfortunately, CCI uses different baselines for SAT and SST, making the comparison more difficult.

SAT baseline = 1979-2000
SST baseline = 1971-2000

So we would expect the anomaly to be different, due to warming during the non-overlapping baseline period of 1971 to 1978... CCI SST anomaly should be slightly higher than SAT anomaly even if the absolute temps are the same.

Physics say the oceans are usually warmer than the air. Shortwave solar energy absorbed by the dark ocean, released to the atmosphere, then to space. Heat flows from warmer to colder.

As Bill F. points out, the monthly datasets and reanalyses like NCEP consistently show absolute SST are higher than SAT.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1414 on: April 24, 2017, 01:44:51 PM »
From CCI-Reanalyzer:-
World Temp Anomaly     0.31 degrees Celsius,
World SST anomaly        0.39 degrees Celsius.

I first noticed this yesterday. Is it unusual for global temperature anomaly to be less than global SST anomaly?

Using HadCRUT and HadSST monthly values...

From Jan 1850 to Feb 2017 (inclusive), there were 862 occasions (out of 2006 pairs of values) in which the SST value was higher.

From Jan 2000 to Feb 2017, the ratio plummets to just 11 from 206.

The last such occurrence was October 2016, and the time before that was July 2014.

That difference between the anomalies is more or less the same today.

                         Observations of Anomalies         
                       sst > air   Total    Percent >air temp anomaly
Jan 1850 to Feb 2017    862          2006                43%
Jan 1850 to Jan 2000     851           1800        47%
Jan 2000 to Feb 2017   11            206                 5%

So it can be said the current observation is an anomaly. I ask simply because of an idle speculation on where the excess energy being trapped by excess CO2 is going. If the proportion swallowed into long-term storage in the oceans increases and into the atmosphere consequently decreases, one could end up with greater long-term AGW but in the shorter-term another idiotic climategate "hiatus" debate. But this change would have to persist for a good while, so perhaps flying this kite is a bit dumb.



Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1415 on: April 24, 2017, 03:10:43 PM »
Does anyone else find it slightly disturbing that our last episode of sustained major warming culminated in 1945, the same year that saw the peak of global slaughter and the first use of nuclear weapons? I hope it isn't a precedent for what's to come in the next few years...

Side note: would it be possible to compare the above temperature graph to annual global GDP growth? I strongly suspect there is a substantial correlation.

Since I first saw this spike in temperatures during WWII and the subsequent drop, I have always wondered why this happened. I doubt it is war related. Can someone with more knowledge than me explain this?

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1416 on: April 24, 2017, 03:28:53 PM »
Since I first saw this spike in temperatures during WWII and the subsequent drop, I have always wondered why this happened. I doubt it is war related. Can someone with more knowledge than me explain this?

I don't have more knowledge....nor do I have an answer....BUT....I am afraid there may not be good enough information for that time period.  Since the ocean is where MOST of the global warming happens....AND....we don't have very good info on ocean temperatures going back that far.

As well....we only have exact readings of CO2 going back to about 1958.  So without those two pieces of the puzzle....it might be tough.

You might take a peak at La Nina's to see if there were abnormally strong La Nina's or absence of El Nino's during that time period from 1945 - 1965.  Also....sun activity would need to be looked at as well.

More questions than answers I'm afraid..... :-[


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Bruce Steele

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1417 on: April 24, 2017, 04:25:09 PM »
I know it's too simplistic an answer but 1945 was the start of a cold water PDO phase. Also the "pause"that started ~ 2000 was another cold water PDO shift. We are currently in a Warm water phase that only started a few years ago and is expected to last another ten of fifteen years. If global air temps are sensitive to the PDO phase this isn't a good indication of near term temperature trends.


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_tsplot_jan2017.png

crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1418 on: April 24, 2017, 05:28:12 PM »
Is that the time of change from buckets to engine intake temperatures for SST? That has been blamed for some of the difference, I believe.

Archimid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1419 on: April 24, 2017, 05:31:46 PM »
I know it's too simplistic an answer but 1945 was the start of a cold water PDO phase. Also the "pause"that started ~ 2000 was another cold water PDO shift. We are currently in a Warm water phase that only started a few years ago and is expected to last another ten of fifteen years. If global air temps are sensitive to the PDO phase this isn't a good indication of near term temperature trends.


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_tsplot_jan2017.png


I think the PDO is the great question here. Is it in a true positive cycle for the next 15 years? Or maybe this is just a fluke (maybe caused by removal of aerosols) and it will switch to negative soon?

If it does switch to negative we might see the Arctic recover. If it doesn't, god help us all.
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