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Author Topic: 2017 ENSO  (Read 8997 times)

aslan

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #100 on: February 14, 2017, 07:13:17 PM »
As forecasted -and shown by AbruptSLR-, extremely strong MJO is ongoing, with reinforced convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific. This will help the nascent El Niño for sure. Some models like GFS are even showing the MJO to linger in phase 7 - 8 for some weeks.



It only lacks some twins cyclones in the Pacific now :D

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #101 on: February 15, 2017, 02:21:43 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +1.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #102 on: February 15, 2017, 10:09:06 PM »
The last few days have seen an impressive rising of the SSTAs in the Niño 3.4-area (Tropical Tidbits values) with a magnitude of about ~1o. It's not impossible that CDAS Niño 3.4-index will rise very close to El Niño territory for a short while. Niño 3 is already above +0,5o above average.

The passage of the recent very strong MJO generated a weak WWB which so far only has shown a moderate increasing of the subsurface temps.

Latest attached forecast from ECMWF shows a very distinct possibility of a most likely moderate El Niño by late summer/early fall. And a few members don't even rule out the possibility of a strong or super Niño. IMO, a weak or moderate El Niño is the most likely outcome as well as a neutral one. The ECMWF forecast also shows a really interesting thing in their ensemble for the Niño 4 - area. As you can see in the second attached pic the clustering of the members is very tight for this area foreseen to be 0,6-1,3o warmer by August. This can be compared to the 2014-2016 Niño which peaked at +1,8oC in this area.

If the ECMWF forecast is correct, then we'll see another year with high bleaching as well as new record high global temperatures.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #103 on: February 16, 2017, 02:30:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #104 on: February 16, 2017, 02:20:50 PM »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

pileus

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #105 on: February 16, 2017, 04:43:50 PM »
ASLR (and others) - any thought on the utility of this daily index?  More inherent volatility or can it be used in the toolbox to track the longer term trend?



Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #106 on: February 16, 2017, 09:31:20 PM »
See Ben Knolls tweet with UKMET ensmble forecast calling for a strong El Niño by May-June-July:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/831803636489412608

//LMV

jai mitchell

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #107 on: February 16, 2017, 11:09:52 PM »
International Research Institute for Climate and Society tweeted the model spaghetti graph for NINO 3.4

https://twitter.com/climatesociety/status/832262934852145152

They caveat high spring model uncertainty but many models (and model avg) show weak El Nino by July.

very shocking considering what the models had in April and December last year!

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Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #108 on: February 17, 2017, 02:06:09 AM »
Does that mean I should take the current projections I posted with a grain of salt?
 :o
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #109 on: February 17, 2017, 02:58:56 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.9:
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 03:04:33 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #110 on: February 17, 2017, 07:34:06 AM »
Tor Bejnar: yes, right now we should take the current projections with a grain of salt. So far, we haven't seen any big WWB which usually, but not always, is a precursor of an El Niño. Back in early 2014, the models were bullish in developing a strong El Niño. As we know, a strong El Niño did develope but a year later. The atmosphere didn't want to shake the hand of the ocean in 2014 as we then came out from cool neutral conditions.

ASLR & Co: JISAO came in with a PDO at +0,77 for January.

jai mitchell

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #111 on: February 17, 2017, 08:07:37 AM »
Does that mean I should take the current projections I posted with a grain of salt?
 :o

the thing is that the failure of the models is only happening in one direction, up.  it is expected that reductions in asian aerosol emissions will lead to a long term positive pacific decadal oscillation and far stronger el ninos (and weaker or non-existent la ninas).
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #112 on: February 17, 2017, 10:42:01 AM »
The daily SOI value at -51,97 should be one of the absolutely lowest that have been recorded by Longpaddock. If my memory is correct, we didn't have such low values during the last Super El Niño. Of course, this very low value is related to a tropical low which has a low chance to evolve into a TC. Nevertheless, it's an impressive low value!

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #113 on: February 17, 2017, 04:43:30 PM »
While daily values fluctuate quite a bit, nevertheless the attached daily Nino 3.4 plot thru Feb 17 2017, shows an impressively rapid rise in SSTA in the Nino 3.4 zone.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

aslan

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #114 on: February 17, 2017, 11:40:23 PM »
Perú also is monitoring the situation. Since the start of February, the SENAMHI (the local MetOffice) has issued an alert for a coastal El Niño :

http://www.senamhi.gob.pe/load/file/02204SENA-71.pdf

https://www.facebook.com/notes/senamhi-peru/estado-del-sistema-de-alerta-alerta-de-el-ni%C3%B1o-costero/10154730059795860

And flooding are already occuring here and there in the country. These days, it is in Piura, with a Nivel 4 (alerta roja) :

https://twitter.com/maxprugue/status/832710807653801988

http://www.senamhi.gob.pe/?p=0140&tip_alert=022


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #115 on: February 18, 2017, 02:22:49 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

aslan

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #116 on: February 18, 2017, 08:55:20 AM »
Also, for the Venezuela the situation is dire. After enduring an historic drought in 2016, the warming of the Pacific is again reducing rainfalls amount in the country. The closest station is showing almost no rain in December and January:

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=82022&ndays=50&ano=2017&mes=2&day=18&hora=7&min=26

La repressa de Guri, the main dam of the country and the main electricity plant of the country, is again in a bad situation. El gobierno is relectuant to speak about the situation, saying some void words like this :

http://www.eldiariodeguayana.com.ve/natural-descenso-actual-las-aguas-del-embalse-guri/

But el nivel de Guri is probably below 260m above sea level now, which implies that electricity generation is probably reduced. At least is is not as bad as in 2016, when temperatures soared to records levels for months and months, accelerating the drying of country and increasing the consumption of electricity; to the point that in April 2016 the country nearly missed a total blackout. But the Guri was not able to replenish, lefting el nivel de Guri below su cota operativa at the end of the rainy season. And now that the dry season, even though the temperatures are near normal, the level is lowering at a worrisome pace.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #117 on: February 18, 2017, 02:32:52 PM »
Also, for the Venezuela the situation is dire. After enduring an historic drought in 2016, the warming of the Pacific is again reducing rainfalls amount in the country. The closest station is showing almost no rain in December and January:

In general terms the IPCC forecasts for climate change induced changes in global precipitation patterns have erred on the side of least drama; so I would not be surprised if the recent drought in Venezuela, and the floods in Peru, that you have pointed-out may be as much related to high climate sensitivity to global warming (the attached AR4 image for scenario A1B shows this change in precipitation pattern by 2100) as to the ENSO cycle.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

jai mitchell

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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #119 on: February 19, 2017, 02:19:43 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Csnavywx

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #120 on: February 19, 2017, 05:46:57 PM »
Nina was likely weaker due to warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern subtropical Pacific. That tends to produce an anomalous component of wind that destructively interferes with the typically strong trade wind setup that allows Nina to intensify. As a result, that intensification didn't really happen and the virtual entirety of the event was continually blunted by this effect. Also, if you look at the entirety of the event, it even looked like a Nina imbedded in a larger scale pattern more typical of Nino, spatial patterns and all. The positive PDO mode that has stuck around will help favor a Nino so long as we get some cooperation from the MJO (again) over the next 1-2 months and the remnant Nina cold pool near the dateline continues to dissipate quickly.

That remnant dateline cold pool/maritime continent warm pool setup is helping prevent a decent WWB from emerging because it favors higher pressure near the dateline and lower near the Maritime Continent, which favors an easterly component. When that dissipates, the door will be fully open to constructive interference from tropical cyclones or the MJO and Bjerknes feedback. We really only have 2 months for this to start coming to pass if another strong Nino is to take hold by fall as it take some time for that feedback to come into fruition -- barring of course a run of really good conditions like the CFSv2 monthly is trying to portray starting in April/May with massive WWB activity.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #121 on: February 19, 2017, 07:06:06 PM »
If you live in the sea and are uncomfortably warm, an El Nino would be very welcome ?

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #122 on: February 20, 2017, 02:29:00 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -1.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #123 on: February 20, 2017, 08:28:36 PM »
Per the following weekly Nino data issued by NOAA through the week centered on Feb 15 2017, the ENSO remains neutral, with the Nino 3.4 at +0.2:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1
 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3
 08FEB2017     27.2 1.5     26.9 0.7     26.8 0.1     27.9-0.2
 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0

The first two images were issued today by the BoM showing weekly data through the week ending Feb 19 2017, indicating that ENSO remains neutral for both the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac showing evolutions for both the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively; both indicating neutral ENSO conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #124 on: February 20, 2017, 08:30:51 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM with weekly Nino data through the week ending Feb 19 2017, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All data indicates neutral ENSO conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #125 on: February 20, 2017, 09:28:39 PM »
The neutral is not what it used to be...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #126 on: February 21, 2017, 02:29:33 AM »
The neutral is not what it used to be...

Granted, this is now a warm neutral instead of the cool neutral that it used to be.

Also, per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -1.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #127 on: February 21, 2017, 04:19:50 AM »
It seems like a return to El Niño conditions in the 3.4 region may coincide with the last couple months of the California rain season. We have been getting rain that has made this feel like an El Niño even though it wasn't but I wonder if a return to elevated surface water temperatures in the 3.4 region might extend wet conditions into April ?
 I also see Apocalypse4real  has a focus on a potential El Niño in his February. Blog post

http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #128 on: February 22, 2017, 02:34:41 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

aslan

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #129 on: February 22, 2017, 09:59:00 AM »
In general terms the IPCC forecasts for climate change induced changes in global precipitation patterns have erred on the side of least drama; so I would not be surprised if the recent drought in Venezuela, and the floods in Peru, that you have pointed-out may be as much related to high climate sensitivity to global warming (the attached AR4 image for scenario A1B shows this change in precipitation pattern by 2100) as to the ENSO cycle.


Yes there is probably also a global warming component in there ;)

Some cyclonic activity is occuring in the Southern Pacific, not too far from equator :



But the current cyclonic season in the SH is extraordinarly inactive and not helping much the El Niño.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #130 on: Today at 02:44:13 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson