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Archimid

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #250 on: April 21, 2017, 12:50:48 AM »
Nice graph.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #251 on: April 21, 2017, 03:31:25 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #252 on: April 21, 2017, 05:05:46 PM »
a few weeks ago the surface temperature anomaly off Peru was +6'C .. now it is @ -2'C . I have read nothing @ this dramatic change .. When at its peak the world air temp anomaly was also high .. now it has fallen by 2/3rds . Any relationship ?
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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #253 on: April 21, 2017, 06:21:27 PM »
According to this very important tweet from Dr. Mike Ventrice, they have found the reason for the big discrepancy between CFSv2 U850 fcst and ECMWF EPS.

According to Ventrice, this is due to a climatology difference. The CFSv2 is using the period 1999-2010 while ERA-Interim uses 1981-2010 where the latter incorporates the two super El Niños in 1982-83 and 1997-98. This should be the reason to why CFSv2 plots are overdoing WWBs.

See the tweet: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/855131882232610818

Edit: just compare the most recent forecast runs wrt MJO! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #254 on: April 22, 2017, 03:28:06 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #255 on: April 23, 2017, 03:28:33 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #256 on: April 24, 2017, 03:28:03 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #257 on: April 24, 2017, 04:28:35 PM »
The following weekly data and the first two images (of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively) were issued today by NOAA (for the week centered on April 19 2017), and the last two images where issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 23, 2017, showing the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, indices, respectively.  Collectively, this information indicates that we are most likely beginning to transition from an ENSO neutral, into a weak El Nino pattern (assuming that the atmosphere follows the oceanic lead in the next few months).


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 29MAR2017     27.8 1.8     28.1 0.8     27.7 0.3     28.3 0.0
 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
 19APR2017     26.4 1.1     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.8 0.3
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #258 on: April 24, 2017, 04:31:48 PM »
The four attached images were issued today by the BoM showing weekly Nino values thru the week ending April 23, 2017, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This information supports the position that we are likely beginning to transition from ENSO-neutral into weak El Nino conditions (assuming the atmosphere follows the indicated oceanic lead in the next couple of months):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #259 on: April 25, 2017, 03:31:40 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -5.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #260 on: April 26, 2017, 09:37:42 PM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -6.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #261 on: April 27, 2017, 03:26:03 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -7.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #262 on: April 28, 2017, 05:57:08 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has surged up to -5.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #263 on: April 29, 2017, 05:50:45 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #264 on: April 30, 2017, 03:25:34 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #265 on: April 30, 2017, 07:35:56 PM »
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a WWB! Both GFS and ECMWF agrees about this!☺

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #266 on: May 01, 2017, 02:24:13 AM »
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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #267 on: May 01, 2017, 03:27:00 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #268 on: May 01, 2017, 05:24:29 PM »
Per the following weekly data and the first two plots (showing the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively issued by NOAA; and the last two weekly plots issued today by the BoM (showing the Nino 3.4 & IOD indices, respectively); the ENSO conditions appear to me moving towards condition more favorable for a weak El Nino developing this boreal summer:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 22MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.8 0.6     27.5 0.2     28.2-0.1
 29MAR2017     27.8 1.8     28.1 0.8     27.7 0.3     28.3 0.0
 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
 19APR2017     26.4 1.1     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.8 0.3
 26APR2017     26.0 1.0     28.0 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
« Last Edit: May 01, 2017, 05:31:26 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #269 on: May 01, 2017, 05:26:59 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending on April 30, 2017, were issued today by the BoM & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, these plots indicate that the probability of a weak El Nino beginning this boreal summer are improving:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #270 on: May 01, 2017, 05:30:22 PM »
The two attached plots (of the Albany 5S-5N 850 hPa Wind Anom & the ECMM MJO forecast from May 1 to 15, 2017, respectively) indicate that the WWB that both LMV & jai posted about yesterday, appears to be associated with some weak MJO activity near the International Dateline.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #271 on: May 02, 2017, 03:25:45 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -6.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #272 on: May 03, 2017, 03:38:42 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #273 on: May 04, 2017, 03:30:35 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #274 on: May 05, 2017, 03:28:30 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #275 on: May 06, 2017, 03:31:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #276 on: May 07, 2017, 03:22:25 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #277 on: May 07, 2017, 10:56:32 AM »
In a few days we should briefly be back in Niño territority, at least for a few days or so until very low daily values likely will be replaced by higher ones. Latest Longpaddock 30-day average value is now down to -7,47. The threshold for Niño area is -8. The corresponding 90-day average is higher being at -3,43 for today.

The lack of significant WWBs make me more confident that we most likely will see warm neutral/borderline El niño conditions later this year followed by strong WWB in early 2018 and a strong El Niño lasting into 2019 followed by a La Niña in 2019/2020. That will almost surely guarantee a record warm 2019, maybe 2018 also will be record warm, depends on the first half of the year as well as how much melting and heat trapping in the ocean we'll see in the Arctic in 2017.

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #278 on: May 07, 2017, 03:50:18 PM »
In a few days we should briefly be back in Niño territority, at least for a few days or so until very low daily values likely will be replaced by higher ones. Latest Longpaddock 30-day average value is now down to -7,47. The threshold for Niño area is -8. The corresponding 90-day average is higher being at -3,43 for today.

The lack of significant WWBs make me more confident that we most likely will see warm neutral/borderline El niño conditions later this year followed by strong WWB in early 2018 and a strong El Niño lasting into 2019 followed by a La Niña in 2019/2020. That will almost surely guarantee a record warm 2019, maybe 2018 also will be record warm, depends on the first half of the year as well as how much melting and heat trapping in the ocean we'll see in the Arctic in 2017.

That's a definite possibility. If Nino never fully develops or stays very weak and the North Pacific Mode goes positive (with the attendant gradual displacement of the WPac warm pool) then it could set up a full Nino next year (ala 2014's setup to the 15-16 Nino).

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #279 on: May 07, 2017, 05:56:50 PM »
Csnawywx: My thoughts precisely! Of interest is how much more the warm pool in the Pacific can grow until it has to be released? Subsurface temps at about 150 m depth around the dateline is 2-3 degrees warmer than normal (According to NOAA). As there are conflicting signals in the PAcific it should take some time until the atmosphere is more aligned to the ocean.

Of some note is that the ONI-value for FMA was up to +0,1.

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #280 on: May 08, 2017, 03:29:42 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -8.3, and thus is in the El Nino range for the first time in months:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #281 on: May 08, 2017, 07:54:20 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data (through the week centered on May 3 2017), and the first two images issued by NOAA today for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the Eq Pac SSTA evolution, as well as for the last two images issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 7 2017 for the Nino 3.4 and IOD indices, respectively, the Eastern Eq Pac continues to cool while the Western Eq Pac is slowly warming, resulting in a plateau near the border of El Nino like conditions:


                    Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
 19APR2017     26.4 1.1     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.8 0.3
 26APR2017     26.0 1.0     28.0 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 03MAY2017     25.6 0.8     27.8 0.5     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #282 on: May 08, 2017, 07:57:31 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM, showing weekly Nino values thru the week ending May 7 2017 for the Nino 1, 2, 3, & 4 indices, respectively.  These plots confirm that the Eastern Eq Pac is continuing to cool while the Nino 4 zone continues to warm; resulting in a plateau near El Nino like conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #283 on: May 09, 2017, 03:26:41 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -8.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #284 on: May 10, 2017, 05:31:44 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -10.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #285 on: May 10, 2017, 11:12:42 AM »
Longpaddock reports a 30-day average value plunging down to -10.3. A continued plunging down should be in the pipeline for the next 2, maybe 3, days. Beyond that, some very low daily values from the middle of April will likely be replaced with higher values.

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #286 on: May 11, 2017, 03:31:01 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -10.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #287 on: May 12, 2017, 03:25:25 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -12.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #288 on: May 12, 2017, 07:24:20 AM »
we have officially crossed into El Nino generation territory, if it persists. . .
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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #289 on: May 12, 2017, 09:43:03 AM »
PDO for April is in. A decent rise to +1,12 according to JISAO continues the long streak of positive PDO.

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #290 on: May 13, 2017, 03:25:44 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -12.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #291 on: May 14, 2017, 03:36:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -11.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #292 on: May 15, 2017, 03:34:24 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -10.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #293 on: May 15, 2017, 04:56:27 PM »
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino indices data and the first two NOAA images for the Eq Pac issued today for the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two images issued by the BoM thru the week ending May 14 2017 for the Nino 3.4 & IOD indices, respectively; the ENSO has more or less plateaued near the border with El Nino-like conditions:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
 19APR2017     26.4 1.1     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.8 0.3
 26APR2017     26.0 1.0     28.0 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 03MAY2017     25.6 0.8     27.8 0.5     28.3 0.5     28.9 0.3
 10MAY2017     25.4 1.0     27.8 0.6     28.3 0.5     29.1 0.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #294 on: May 15, 2017, 04:59:36 PM »
The four attached images of weekly Nino indices data thru the week ending May 14 2017, were issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They more or less indicate plateaued ENSO conditions at the border of El Nino-like conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #295 on: May 16, 2017, 03:27:13 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -9.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #296 on: May 17, 2017, 03:38:07 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -7.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #297 on: May 18, 2017, 03:26:26 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -7.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #298 on: May 19, 2017, 12:11:58 AM »
latest IRI plume


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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #299 on: May 19, 2017, 03:57:16 AM »
As a quick newbie question, what is the interpretation of the 30 day moving SOI? The more negative the value the more likely an El Nino ? And I know I just caused teeth gnashing and hair pulling by anyone who understands that graph well. Just looking for a starting point to begin my own research. I was just hoping to get a hook/enticing preview to jump start my attention.