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Author Topic: 2017 ENSO  (Read 22870 times)

Archimid

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #250 on: April 21, 2017, 12:50:48 AM »
Nice graph.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #251 on: April 21, 2017, 03:31:25 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #252 on: April 21, 2017, 05:05:46 PM »
a few weeks ago the surface temperature anomaly off Peru was +6'C .. now it is @ -2'C . I have read nothing @ this dramatic change .. When at its peak the world air temp anomaly was also high .. now it has fallen by 2/3rds . Any relationship ?
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #253 on: April 21, 2017, 06:21:27 PM »
According to this very important tweet from Dr. Mike Ventrice, they have found the reason for the big discrepancy between CFSv2 U850 fcst and ECMWF EPS.

According to Ventrice, this is due to a climatology difference. The CFSv2 is using the period 1999-2010 while ERA-Interim uses 1981-2010 where the latter incorporates the two super El Niños in 1982-83 and 1997-98. This should be the reason to why CFSv2 plots are overdoing WWBs.

See the tweet: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/855131882232610818

Edit: just compare the most recent forecast runs wrt MJO! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #254 on: April 22, 2017, 03:28:06 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #255 on: April 23, 2017, 03:28:33 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #256 on: April 24, 2017, 03:28:03 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #257 on: April 24, 2017, 04:28:35 PM »
The following weekly data and the first two images (of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively) were issued today by NOAA (for the week centered on April 19 2017), and the last two images where issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 23, 2017, showing the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, indices, respectively.  Collectively, this information indicates that we are most likely beginning to transition from an ENSO neutral, into a weak El Nino pattern (assuming that the atmosphere follows the oceanic lead in the next few months).


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 29MAR2017     27.8 1.8     28.1 0.8     27.7 0.3     28.3 0.0
 05APR2017     26.7 0.9     28.2 0.8     27.9 0.3     28.3 0.0
 12APR2017     26.1 0.5     28.2 0.7     28.0 0.2     28.5 0.0
 19APR2017     26.4 1.1     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.8 0.3
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #258 on: April 24, 2017, 04:31:48 PM »
The four attached images were issued today by the BoM showing weekly Nino values thru the week ending April 23, 2017, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This information supports the position that we are likely beginning to transition from ENSO-neutral into weak El Nino conditions (assuming the atmosphere follows the indicated oceanic lead in the next couple of months):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #259 on: April 25, 2017, 03:31:40 AM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -5.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #260 on: April 26, 2017, 09:37:42 PM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -6.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #261 on: April 27, 2017, 03:26:03 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -7.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #262 on: Today at 05:57:08 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has surged up to -5.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson