Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Author Topic: 2017 ENSO  (Read 29663 times)

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #50 on: January 22, 2017, 02:35:47 AM »
Per the following data & the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down from +3.5 yesterday down to +2.8 today:

20161219,20170117,6.3
20161220,20170118,4.6
20161221,20170119,3.5
20161222,20170120,2.8
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #51 on: January 23, 2017, 02:28:03 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +1.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Darvince

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 160
    • View Profile
    • NSIDC Daily
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #52 on: January 23, 2017, 03:59:17 PM »
I am not sure where I found this from, if it was this forum or elsewhere, but it seems highly pertinent to this topic, so here:

http://contextearth.com/2016/11/21/presentation-at-agu-2016-on-december-12/

Pmt111500

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 969
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #53 on: January 23, 2017, 04:21:08 PM »
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,179.msg96118.html#msg96118

Since the author was rather reluctant to connect his work to the changes in the environment I put a link to Arctic Cafe about the disharmony qbo does in relation to something else. The ENSO and QBO models are very relevant here as far as I can tell.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2017, 05:21:38 PM by Pmt111500 »
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #54 on: January 23, 2017, 04:51:56 PM »
The following weekly Nino data issued by NOAA thru the week centered on Jan 18 2017, indicates generally ENSO neutral conditions with the Nino 3.4 index drifting up to -0.2C.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 14DEC2016     23.2 0.5     24.6-0.5     26.1-0.4     28.2-0.2
 21DEC2016     23.6 0.6     25.0-0.2     26.2-0.3     28.3-0.1
 28DEC2016     24.2 0.8     25.0-0.3     26.3-0.3     28.3-0.1
 04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1
 11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
 18JAN2017     26.2 1.6     25.8 0.1     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.1

The first two attached plots were issued today by the BoM through the week ending Jan 22 2017, and show the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively.  Both indicate general ENSO neutral conditions.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac, with the third image showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom near zero, and the fourth image showing the SSTA Evolution.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #55 on: January 23, 2017, 04:54:29 PM »
The four attached images of were issued today by the BoM indicating weekly Nino plots thru the week ending Jan 22 2017, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3, & 4, indices, respectively.  Generally, they show ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1207
    • View Profile
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #57 on: January 24, 2017, 02:30:56 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #58 on: January 25, 2017, 02:26:07 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #59 on: January 25, 2017, 04:51:36 PM »
The first plot shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued Jan 25 2017, indicating that this value is now positive.

The second plot shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom Profiles issued Jan 25 2017, that shows the probably beginning of an oceanic Equatorial Kelvin Wave.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 993
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #60 on: January 25, 2017, 05:40:01 PM »
Looking at the latest NOAA plot of subsurface revealsthat there actually is a very small pocket of +3o warmer water in the far Western Pacific at about 100 m depth. In addition, there is a big pool of warm water in the far Western Pacific which doesn't show up on the TAO/TRITON picture which starts at 150E while NOAAs pic start at 130E.

What we need now is a moderate to strong WWB. Given that we've just left La Niña I think we'll have to wait until late February or early March until we'll see a WWB of decent strength.

To our Emperor ASLR: do you know if there is any page where one can find the OHC for the Indian Ocean?

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #61 on: January 26, 2017, 02:35:17 AM »
First LMV, I not not have a full service response, but you could check the following links to see if they have anything that you like:

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/basin_data.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing.shtml#Tropical Indian Ocean
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_new/pent_oisst_heat_u850_ind_eq_xt.gif

Second, per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #62 on: January 27, 2017, 02:40:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #63 on: January 28, 2017, 07:33:36 PM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +1.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #64 on: January 29, 2017, 02:25:50 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has bounced up to +2.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #65 on: January 30, 2017, 02:27:43 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #66 on: January 30, 2017, 04:29:03 PM »
The following NOAA weekly Nino data indicates that for the week centered on Jan 25 2017 the Nino 3.4 index drifted down to -0.4C; thus indicating neutral ENSO conditions.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 21DEC2016     23.6 0.6     25.0-0.2     26.2-0.3     28.3-0.1
 28DEC2016     24.2 0.8     25.0-0.3     26.3-0.3     28.3-0.1
 04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1
 11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
 18JAN2017     26.2 1.6     25.8 0.1     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.1
 25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1

The first two attached images were issued today by the BoM through the week ending Jan 29 2017, & indicate that the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices both show neutral ENSO conditions.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac and show the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively.  Both of these images indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #67 on: January 30, 2017, 04:32:08 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino 1, 2,3 & 4 indices plots, respectively, were issued today by the BoM through the week ending Jan 29 2017, collectively they indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3031
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #68 on: January 30, 2017, 06:08:44 PM »
The latest NOAA magnum opus states:

La Niña conditions are present.*


* Based on their January 12th diagnostic discussion.

I can't help but think that the BoM will still say "Inactive" tomorrow though.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #69 on: January 31, 2017, 12:04:21 AM »
The linked January 17 2017 BoM ENSO Overview states that we are in ENSO neutral conditions:

Extract: "Tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO neutral

In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. A neutral ENSO period indicates that the tropical Pacific Ocean is not shifting the odds towards a significantly wetter or drier period for Australia. When ENSO is in a neutral phase weather extremes can and do occur due to the influence of secondary or local factors.

Most indicators of ENSO, such as sea surface temperatures, the 90-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the trade winds are within the ENSO-neutral range. However, cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show a weak La Niña-like pattern."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #70 on: January 31, 2017, 02:27:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +1.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3031
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #71 on: January 31, 2017, 11:45:01 AM »
The BoM ENSO watch does indeed remain "inactive". According to their most recent outlook:

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely for the remainder of the southern hemisphere summer and into autumn. All models indicate the central Pacific is likely to warm over the coming months, suggesting ENSO-neutral or El Niño are the most likely scenarios for winter/spring 2017.

A neutral ENSO state does not necessarily mean average rainfall or temperature for Australia. Rather it means that ENSO patterns are not driving Australia's weather toward generally wetter or drier conditions. Other shorter-term or smaller-scale climate drivers may dominate and hence influence Australia's climate.

Half the models surveyed suggest strong warming may occur during autumn, with five reaching El Niño thresholds by mid to late winter. It must be noted that this outlook straddles the autumn predictability barrier—typically the ENSO transition period—during which most models have their lowest forecast accuracy.

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #72 on: February 01, 2017, 02:26:07 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

georged

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 38
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #73 on: February 01, 2017, 04:01:18 AM »
The cloudiness index has also collapsed into neutral conditions very rapidly.

Most concerning to me is the sudden emergence of a large warm patch off the coast of Peru and Ecuador. If it moves north or sits there, it will start to have a significant impact.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #74 on: February 01, 2017, 05:49:29 PM »
The cloudiness index has also collapsed into neutral conditions very rapidly.

Most concerning to me is the sudden emergence of a large warm patch off the coast of Peru and Ecuador. If it moves north or sits there, it will start to have a significant impact.

Per the three attached images (all issued today), I believe that the oceanic conditions will likely induce at least weak El Nino conditions by late Summer of 2017, and if the atmosphere reinforces this trend we could well see moderate (or stronger) El Nino conditions by the end of 2017.  Good luck in Peru & Ecuador.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

From Peru

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 1
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #75 on: February 02, 2017, 01:22:08 AM »
Per the three attached images (all issued today), I believe that the oceanic conditions will likely induce at least weak El Nino conditions by late Summer of 2017, and if the atmosphere reinforces this trend we could well see moderate (or stronger) El Nino conditions by the end of 2017.  Good luck in Peru & Ecuador.


Thank you for the "good luck". We will need it.

In northern Peru SST anomalies had hit + 7 °C in some areas (see attached graph). The overall anomaly is 2-3 °C, meaning we are already in a "very strong" El Niño state in the south american coast. Air temperatures are slightly hotter than in 1998, the strongest ENSO in recent history here.

There is widesperad flooding in central and south Peru, now the rains have arrived to the north.

Here are some links (in spanish) for some Peruvian websites:

http://www.imarpe.pe/imarpe/index.php?id_seccion=I0178030104000000000000

https://twitter.com/Mario___Ramirez/with_replies?lang=es
« Last Edit: February 02, 2017, 01:29:46 AM by From Peru »

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #76 on: February 02, 2017, 02:28:36 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Governor
  • *****
  • Posts: 3598
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #77 on: February 02, 2017, 09:38:10 AM »
Welcome, From Peru. I have released your profile, so you can post freely now.
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 993
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #78 on: February 02, 2017, 05:06:06 PM »
The current forecast for MJO shows that we for now are in phase 5 but should move into phase 7 in about a week or so with a moderate strength. This is depicted by U_Albanys forecast too where more westerlies are indicated from February 7-9. Should help to send a downwelling Kelvin wave with warmer waters eastward.

//LMV

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #79 on: February 03, 2017, 02:41:23 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #80 on: February 04, 2017, 03:20:20 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 993
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #81 on: February 04, 2017, 09:35:19 AM »
NOAA has reported an ONI-value at -0,7o for the three-month period November-December-January. And hence, by NOAAs definition we have had a full-fledged La Niña with five lapping trimonths at or below -0,5o. From NOAAs page on individual months ONI-value, January came in at -0,65o which was the same value as for December 2016. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst4.nino.mth.81-10.ascii

ASLR: Thank you for the links to Indian Ocean! :)

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #82 on: February 04, 2017, 06:31:59 PM »
NOAA has reported an ONI-value at -0,7o for the three-month period November-December-January. And hence, by NOAAs definition we have had a full-fledged La Niña with five lapping trimonths at or below -0,5o.

The first linked Scribbler article is entitled: "There’s a La Nina Developing — So Why is the World Still Heating Up?", and it indicates anthropogenic polar amplification is starting to over-ride the ENSO induced natural variability in the GMSTA.

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/04/theres-a-la-nina-developing-so-why-is-the-world-still-heating-up/

Extract: "By themselves, these abnormally high temperatures at the poles would be odd enough. But when taking into account that La Nina should still be cooling the globe off, it starts to look like this severe polar warming has jostled the La Nina cooling signal a bit — turning it back toward warming by late fall. And if that is what’s really happening, then it would imply that the natural variability signal that is produced by ENSO is starting to be over-ridden by polar amplification based influences. In other words, there appears to be another signal that’s starting to intrude as a polar amplification based temperature spike."

In the second linked article entitled: "From Pole to Pole, Global Sea Ice Values are Plummeting", Scribbler notes that La Nina conditions "… tend to push more ocean and atmospheric heat toward the poles — particularly toward the Arctic."  This indicates to me that the ENSO cycle represents a positive feedback that is accelerating both polar amplification and climate sensitivity.  If so then the formally declared La Nina is likely accelerating long-term global warming:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/15/from-pole-to-pole-global-sea-ice-values-are-plummeting/

Extract: "… the trajectory going into 2017 for the Arctic at present doesn’t look very good. Both sea ice extent and volume are now at or well below the previous low marks for this time of year. Remaining thick ice positioned near the Fram Strait generates a physical disadvantage to the ice in general. In addition, NOAA has announced that La Nina conditions are now present in the Equatorial Pacific. And La Nina events tend to push more ocean and atmospheric heat toward the poles — particularly toward the Arctic."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 993
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #83 on: February 04, 2017, 08:14:24 PM »
When next bigger El Niño arrives, the Arctic will be in tremendeous trouble. Latest U_Albany forecast depicts a weak-moderate WWB which should strengthen the weak downwelling Kelvin wave. And MJO will move into phase 7 in about 5-7 days with a fairly high amplitude according to both GFS an ECMWF.

The WWB will be limited to 120-150oE while strong easterlies initially will hover around the Dateline but are forecasted to weaken in about a week or so. Worth to mention is that the last time we saw a WWB was by New Year 2015/1016 which is about 13 months ago now.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #84 on: February 05, 2017, 02:25:11 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #85 on: February 06, 2017, 02:44:24 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #86 on: February 07, 2017, 04:08:37 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 993
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #87 on: February 07, 2017, 08:22:04 AM »
According to Copernicus, January 2017 was with a slim margin to 2007 the second warmest such on record. It was however 0,17oC cooler than January 2016. https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/january-2017

Copernicus outcome is very realistic and I believe NOAA will put January 2017 on a solid third place while NASA should put it very close to 2007. Worth to mention is that the current weak La Niña is fading but should still put some flavors to the global temps which is how we should see this January in context.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #88 on: February 07, 2017, 02:32:27 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino index data through the week centered on Feb 1 2017, the Nino 3.4 index has drifted up to -0.3C.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1
 11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
 18JAN2017     26.2 1.6     25.8 0.1     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.1
 25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1
 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3


The first two attachments were issued by the BoM (for the Nino 3.4 & IOD, respectively) for the week ending Feb 5 2017, indicating continued neutral ENSO conditions.

The third image was issued today by NOAA shows the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the fourth image ECMM - MJO forecast from Feb 6 to 20, 2017; both indicating possible future conditions the could support a mild El Nino later this year.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #89 on: February 07, 2017, 02:34:51 PM »
The four attached images where issued by the BoM showing weekly Nino data for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, through the week ending Feb 5 2017.  They general show neutral ENSO conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #90 on: February 09, 2017, 02:35:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1673
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #91 on: February 09, 2017, 09:12:59 PM »
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favored to continue through at least the
Northern Hemisphere spring 2017.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Most models predict the continuation of ENSO-neutral(3-month average Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6). However, a few dynamical model forecasts, including the NCEP CFSv2, anticipate an onset of El Niño as soon as the Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2017).

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #92 on: February 10, 2017, 02:57:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 274
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #93 on: February 10, 2017, 03:31:54 PM »
Climate Prediction Center says La Nina is no longer extent. Enso neutral now plus 50-50 chance of some sort of El Nino late summer / early fall. But are also saying as usual that the Spring barrier makes for little confidence in forecasts made at this time.

Is there anywhere an explanation of this spring barrier that a moderately intelligent person has a chance of comprehending ?

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1673
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #94 on: February 10, 2017, 03:56:49 PM »

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #95 on: February 12, 2017, 02:22:32 AM »
Per the following data yesterday, the SOI stayed constant at -0.8, while today, per the attached plot, the SOI surged up to +0.1:

20170108,20170206,0.2
20170109,20170207,-0.3
20170110,20170208,-0.8
20170111,20170209,-0.8
20170112,20170210,0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #96 on: February 13, 2017, 03:32:32 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI stayed constant at +0.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #97 on: February 13, 2017, 05:26:39 PM »
The following NOAA weekly Nino data indicates that through the week centered on Feb 8 2017, the Nino 3.4 index has moved up to +0.1:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
 18JAN2017     26.2 1.6     25.8 0.1     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.1
 25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1
 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3
 08FEB2017     27.2 1.5     26.9 0.7     26.8 0.1     27.9-0.2

The first two attached images were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Feb 12 2017, and show the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, indicating neutral ENSO conditions with a slight trend towards El Nino like conditions.

The last two attached images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac, and show the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution respectively, & both indicate neutral ENSO conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #98 on: February 13, 2017, 05:29:29 PM »
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM with weekly Nino data through the week ending Feb 12 2017, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They indicate neutral ENSO conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #99 on: February 14, 2017, 02:28:48 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson