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La Niña conditions are present.*
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely for the remainder of the southern hemisphere summer and into autumn. All models indicate the central Pacific is likely to warm over the coming months, suggesting ENSO-neutral or El Niño are the most likely scenarios for winter/spring 2017.A neutral ENSO state does not necessarily mean average rainfall or temperature for Australia. Rather it means that ENSO patterns are not driving Australia's weather toward generally wetter or drier conditions. Other shorter-term or smaller-scale climate drivers may dominate and hence influence Australia's climate.Half the models surveyed suggest strong warming may occur during autumn, with five reaching El Niño thresholds by mid to late winter. It must be noted that this outlook straddles the autumn predictability barrier—typically the ENSO transition period—during which most models have their lowest forecast accuracy.
The cloudiness index has also collapsed into neutral conditions very rapidly.Most concerning to me is the sudden emergence of a large warm patch off the coast of Peru and Ecuador. If it moves north or sits there, it will start to have a significant impact.
Per the three attached images (all issued today), I believe that the oceanic conditions will likely induce at least weak El Nino conditions by late Summer of 2017, and if the atmosphere reinforces this trend we could well see moderate (or stronger) El Nino conditions by the end of 2017. Good luck in Peru & Ecuador.
NOAA has reported an ONI-value at -0,7o for the three-month period November-December-January. And hence, by NOAAs definition we have had a full-fledged La Niña with five lapping trimonths at or below -0,5o.
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favored to continue through at least theNorthern Hemisphere spring 2017.
Most models predict the continuation of ENSO-neutral(3-month average Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6). However, a few dynamical model forecasts, including the NCEP CFSv2, anticipate an onset of El Niño as soon as the Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2017).
It is more like a lull or a valley in ENSO forecasting accuracy.
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