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Author Topic: 2017 ENSO  (Read 15773 times)

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #150 on: March 05, 2017, 02:33:56 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.0:
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #151 on: March 06, 2017, 02:29:51 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -1.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #152 on: March 06, 2017, 06:35:21 PM »
The following NOAA Nino index values through the week centered on March 1 2017, shows the western Tropical Pacific cooling with the Eastern Tropical Pacific remaining relatively warm.  This and the attached images indicate that at the moment ENSO neutral conditions prevail.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3
 08FEB2017     27.2 1.5     26.9 0.7     26.8 0.1     27.9-0.2
 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
 22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
 01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1

The first two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac, with the first image showing that the Upper Ocean Heat Anom remained stable but positive; while the second images shows the SSTA Evolution which indicates that the Western Tropical Pacific surface temps remain neutral for this time of year.

The third image issue today by the BoM indicates that the Nino 3.4 drifted downward, as did the IOD shown in the fourth image also issued today by the BoM.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #153 on: March 06, 2017, 06:38:34 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for weekly Nino values through the week ending March 5 2017.  They respectively show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices; which taken together, indicate that an El Nino mechanism has not formed yet, and the neutral conditions prevail.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #154 on: March 07, 2017, 02:29:11 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -1.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #155 on: March 08, 2017, 02:29:31 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #156 on: March 09, 2017, 02:54:38 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #157 on: March 10, 2017, 02:55:59 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #158 on: March 11, 2017, 02:29:44 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #159 on: March 12, 2017, 02:28:32 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #160 on: March 13, 2017, 02:17:30 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #161 on: March 13, 2017, 04:42:25 PM »
Per the following data and images the Eq Pac surface temperatures have cooled a little bit but the Upper Ocean Heat Anom (see the last image) has continued to drift upwards, indicating that we remain in an ENSO neutral pattern:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3
 08FEB2017     27.2 1.5     26.9 0.7     26.8 0.1     27.9-0.2
 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
 22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
 01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1
 08MAR2017     28.5 2.1     27.4 0.4     26.8-0.2     27.8-0.3
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #162 on: March 13, 2017, 04:44:44 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM thru the week ending March 12, 2017, and show weekly Nino values for the Nino 1, 2 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All show slight cooling but continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #163 on: March 13, 2017, 06:45:01 PM »
Strong trades seems to continue for at least a week or so. MJO will likely be non-existent or very, very weak for the next 2 weeks or so. If a strong El Niño is going to take shape this year we need so see some decent WWB soon.

Eyeballing the subsurface temps, the warm pool at the dateline has weakend the last week or so and only a minor pocket of +2o anomaly remains. OTOH, the cold pool with -1o anomaly in the Eastern Pacific has grown over the last week.

JISAO are in with a PDO value at +0,70 which is about the same like in January (+0,77).

According to Dr. Mike Ventrice, we are now behind 1997 wrt AEI (Atmospheric ENSO Index): https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/841268414610067462




AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #164 on: March 14, 2017, 02:13:30 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

seaicesailor

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #165 on: March 14, 2017, 12:21:42 PM »
May I ask why so warm in el Niño 1,2? Does this reflect a different phenomenon than el Niño? Cause in Perú they have a bad feeling. Just curious, may somebody following this know.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #166 on: March 14, 2017, 03:18:28 PM »
May I ask why so warm in el Niño 1,2? Does this reflect a different phenomenon than el Niño? Cause in Perú they have a bad feeling. Just curious, may somebody following this know.


I do not know why the Nino 1 & Nino 2 regions are so warm; but my apprehension is that as global warming continues and the oceans continue to warm, that the Eastern Equatorial Pacific will/is warming faster than the average ocean increase.  I believe that this has been the case during past interglacial warm periods.

Edit: For example see:


Karlos G. D. Kochhann, Ann Holbourn, Wolfgang Kuhnt, James E. T. Channell, Mitch Lyle, Julia K. Shackford, Roy (17 September 2016), “Eccentricity pacing of eastern equatorial Pacific carbonate dissolution cycles during the Miocene Climatic Optimum”, Paleoceanography, Vol: 32, pp 1176-1192 DOI:10.1002/2016PA002988

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016PA002988/full

Abstract: “The Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO; ~16.9 to 14.7 Ma) provides an outstanding opportunity to investigate climate-carbon cycle dynamics during a geologically recent interval of global warmth. We present benthic stable oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotope records (5–12 kyr time resolution) spanning the late early to middle Miocene interval (18 to 13 Ma) at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1335 (eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean). The U1335 stable isotope series track the onset and development of the MCO as well as the transitional climatic phase culminating with global cooling and expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet at ~13.8 Ma. We integrate these new data with published stable isotope, geomagnetic polarity, and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanner-derived carbonate records from IODP Sites U1335, U1336, U1337, and U1338 on a consistent, astronomically tuned timescale. Benthic isotope and XRF scanner-derived CaCO3 records depict prominent 100 kyr variability with 400 kyr cyclicity additionally imprinted on δ13C and CaCO3 records, pointing to a tight coupling between the marine carbon cycle and climate variations. Our intersite comparison further indicates that the lysocline behaved in highly dynamic manner throughout the MCO, with >75% carbonate loss occurring at paleodepths ranging from ~3.4 to ~4 km in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Carbonate dissolution maxima coincide with warm phases (δ18O minima) and δ13C decreases, implying that climate-carbon cycle feedbacks fundamentally differed from the late Pleistocene glacial-interglacial pattern, where dissolution maxima correspond to δ13C maxima and δ18O minima. Carbonate dissolution cycles during the MCO were, thus, more similar to Paleogene hyperthermal patterns.”

See also the following associated linked article:

http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/article/10.1002/2016PA002988/editor-highlight/

Extract: “... swift transitions to “hothouse” conditions—that had profound consequences for life. These spikes could serve as analogues for the future of our warming planet.

The cause of these spikes may in part be due to changes in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, an important greenhouse gas. But the complex feedbacks between the Earth’s climate and the carbon cycle have been hotly debated, and there is little scientific consensus on this issue.

To help unravel the relationship between the carbon cycle and climate during an extended warm period, Kochhann et al. present a data set of stable isotope and carbonate records. These records indicators of changing temperature and the growth or contraction of ice sheets, are from an Integrated Ocean Drilling Program drill site in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.”

& also:

https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.863700
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 05:33:10 PM by AbruptSLR »
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seaicesailor

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #167 on: March 15, 2017, 12:11:56 AM »
Thank you ASLR.
It's March, excessive rains have continued pouring in many regions after January, media keep calling it el Niño. Hoping it abates and does not merge with another real Niño.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #168 on: March 15, 2017, 02:21:50 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.0 (and thus remains ENSO neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #169 on: March 16, 2017, 02:26:33 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -5.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #170 on: March 17, 2017, 04:09:08 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

crandles

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #171 on: March 17, 2017, 03:50:03 PM »

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #172 on: March 17, 2017, 06:50:54 PM »
NASA has posted an article about the possibility that warm left over water from the previous El Niño may fuel a new one.

Links to the article:

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/could-leftover-heat-from-last-el-ni-o-fuel-a-new-one

BoM shows an aggressive move to a potentially strong El Niño. 94% of the models develop an El Niño by July:


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #173 on: March 17, 2017, 09:28:11 PM »
Thank you ASLR.
It's March, excessive rains have continued pouring in many regions after January, media keep calling it el Niño. Hoping it abates and does not merge with another real Niño.

The linked Scribbler article is entitled: "Signals of Climate Change Visible as Record Fires Give Way to Massive Floods in Peru".

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/17/signals-of-climate-change-visible-as-record-fires-give-way-to-massive-floods-in-peru/

Extract: "The climate extremes Peru has experienced — flipping from flash drought and wildfires to flash flood in just 5-6 months is exactly the kind wrenched weather we can expect more and more from climate change. For as the Earth warms, the amount of moisture evaporated from lands, oceans, lakes and rivers increases. As a result, the hydrological cycle gets kicked into higher gear. And what this means it that droughts and fires will tend to become more intense even as rains, when they do fall, will tend to be heavier."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #174 on: March 17, 2017, 09:44:19 PM »
ASLR & Co: I checked the article and one very interesting thing came up there! According to the article, the last time Peru suffered from a "coastal El Niño" was back in 1925. This is interesting as it coincides with a flip in the PDO from its negative phase into the positive phase that lasted for about 20 years. While we can't say anything definitely about this, it still is an odd thing that might (or maybe not) be just a coincidence.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #175 on: March 18, 2017, 02:24:29 AM »
Per the following data and attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -4.8:

20170215,20170316,-4.8
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jai mitchell

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #176 on: March 18, 2017, 07:11:13 PM »
sudden and rapid warming off of peru this is not your grandfather's el nino

http://news.trust.org/item/20170317231203-gvjhc
Abnormal El Nino in Peru unleashes deadly downpours; more flooding seen
At least 62 people have died and more than 70,000 homeless as Peru's rainy season has delivered 10 times as much rainfall than usual

A local El Nino phenomenon, the warming of surface sea temperatures in the Pacific, will likely continue along Peru's northern coast at least through April, said Dimitri Gutierrez, a scientist with Peru's El Nino committee.

Local El Ninos in Peru tend to be followed by the global El Nino phenomenon, which can trigger flooding and droughts in different countries, said Gutierrez.

The U.S. weather agency has put the chances of an El Nino developing in the second half of 2017 at 50-55 percent.


http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.3.16.2017.gif
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #177 on: March 18, 2017, 09:45:56 PM »
Jai Mitchell: this kind of El Niño off Peru is unusual but not unheard of. According to the Guardian (see the link to Robert Scribbler that ASLR posted), Peru experienced a "coastal El Niño" back in 1925.


Link to Scribblers post: https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/17/signals-of-climate-change-visible-as-record-fires-give-way-to-massive-floods-in-peru/

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #178 on: March 19, 2017, 02:32:00 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -2.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

jai mitchell

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #179 on: March 19, 2017, 08:11:04 PM »
Jai Mitchell: this kind of El Niño off Peru is unusual but not unheard of. According to the Guardian (see the link to Robert Scribbler that ASLR posted), Peru experienced a "coastal El Niño" back in 1925.


Link to Scribblers post: https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/17/signals-of-climate-change-visible-as-record-fires-give-way-to-massive-floods-in-peru/


My Lord,

forgive my insolence but your post caused me to perform some cursory background research on the 1925 event. after a few minutes I was able to locate this paper: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMOS32A..05T
The strong far-eastern Pacific El Niño in 1925-26, revisited

according to newspaper reports from that year. Furthermore, ICOADS ship wind data shows that the confluence of northerly and southerly winds near the coast, a proxy for the ITCZ, presented its southernmost position for the twentieth century at this time, a couple of degrees latitude further south than during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 events. The convective anomalies appear to have then helped trigger the zonal ENSO feedbacks.


Since outgoing longwave anomalies is a good proxy for the ITCZ location I looked at the anomaly map below



indeed, the ITCZ does appear to be more positioned in the southern hemisphere but I am wondering if this is more to do with a lack of northern hemisphere band.  and that the southern is really fairly normal (see scale of anomaly).  good find on RS site, he does great work.

please be sure that My post was not to place doubt upon you, your dark powers, the supremacy of the Sith but that I wanted to help enlighten the. . .(gasp). . . (choke) . . . (gasp). . . (thud!)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #180 on: March 20, 2017, 02:25:21 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -0.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

TerryM

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #181 on: March 20, 2017, 05:38:24 PM »
...(gasp)...(choke)...(gasp)...(thud) --- indeed!


How was the weather further north affected by the 1925 event?


California seems finely balanced between catastrophic drought and catastrophic flooding. Will a 1925 style El Nino put his pudgy little thumb on the scale favoring atmospheric rivers inundating the Golden State, or will he favor the building of another resilient ridge defecting all precipitation?


It's not that I'm indifferent to the well being of our Peruvian brothers, rather that I fear the price of pecans might spiral out of control and affect the bottom line of the Californian Nut Exporters. California's reputation as a source of nuts, nut cases and other related products could be irreparably damaged.


Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #182 on: March 20, 2017, 06:57:03 PM »
Per the following weekly Nino data issued by NOAA, and per the first two images issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac, SSTA and Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively; and the last two images issued by the BoM today for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively; the ENSO conditions are slightly more favorable for El Nino conditions, but remain ENSO neutral.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
 22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
 01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1
 08MAR2017     28.5 2.1     27.4 0.4     26.8-0.2     27.8-0.3
 15MAR2017     29.1 2.6     27.9 0.8     27.5 0.3     28.2 0.0
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #183 on: March 20, 2017, 06:59:10 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM showing weekly Nino data through the week ending March 19 2017, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They all show relatively little change from last week, and thus conditions remain ENSO neutral.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

magnamentis

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #184 on: March 20, 2017, 08:16:00 PM »
looks like that we deal with "dizygotic twins" talking about "Niños"  ;)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #185 on: March 21, 2017, 02:24:24 AM »
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +1.1:

20170218,20170319,1.1
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #186 on: March 22, 2017, 02:28:50 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #187 on: March 23, 2017, 02:25:40 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #188 on: March 24, 2017, 02:27:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #189 on: March 25, 2017, 02:26:02 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #190 on: March 25, 2017, 08:51:37 PM »
Weird Coastal El Nino Clobbers Peru: 80 Killed, $1.4 Billion in Damage
...
What’s puzzling this time is that the 2014-16 El Niño, the strongest since 1997-98, officially ended more than half a year ago, and it didn’t bring exceptional rain to Peru. Weak La Niña conditions then took hold in late 2016, only to quickly dissipate in early 2017. Meanwhile, sea-surface temperatures off Peru—where the concept of El Niño originated—have skyrocketed since the first of the year. The Niño1+2 region has been running more than 2.0°C above average since late February (see Figure 2 above). This warming has been so strong, and the rainy pattern so clear, that Peru’s national agency for El Niño research, ENFEN, issued a coastal El Niño alert that’s been in place since February 15. Meanwhile, the broader-scale Pacific pattern still hasn’t meshed with the standard El Niño criteria used by NOAA and other international agencies.
...
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/weird-coastal-el-nino-clobbers-peru-80-killed-14-billion-in-damage
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #191 on: March 26, 2017, 03:27:06 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.8:
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #192 on: March 27, 2017, 03:25:04 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.4 (and thus remains ENSO neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #193 on: March 27, 2017, 05:03:56 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on March 22, 2017, and both the attached BoM weekly plots (Nino 3.4 and IOD, respectively) thru the week ending March 26 2017, and the attached NOAA plots (Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & SSTA Evolution, respectively) issued today; we remain in ENSO neutral conditions.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
 22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
 01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1
 08MAR2017     28.5 2.1     27.4 0.4     26.8-0.2     27.8-0.3
 15MAR2017     29.1 2.6     27.9 0.8     27.5 0.3     28.2 0.0
 22MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.8 0.6     27.5 0.2     28.2-0.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #194 on: March 27, 2017, 05:06:41 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM showing weekly Nino plots thru the week ending March 26 2017, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, the plots indicate ENSO neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #195 on: March 28, 2017, 04:13:40 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +5.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

jai mitchell

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #196 on: March 28, 2017, 04:58:35 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +5.6:

 :o that is about 3 months ahead of schedule!
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DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #197 on: March 28, 2017, 12:24:06 PM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +5.6:

 :o that is about 3 months ahead of schedule!

Schedule?
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jai mitchell

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #198 on: March 28, 2017, 05:59:50 PM »
nevermind, I had flipped the sign.  :-[
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