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Author Topic: 2017 ENSO  (Read 36075 times)

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #350 on: June 19, 2017, 04:57:05 PM »
The following and attached NOAA (the first two images of the upper ocean heat anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively) & BoM (the last two images of the Nino 3.4 & the IOD indices, respectively thru the week ending June 18 2017) information indicates that if a weak El Nino is going to occur this year then it needs to start some feedback loops in the coming weeks; otherwise, we are going to lock into an ENSO neutral pattern through the rest of the year:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 10MAY2017     25.4 1.0     27.8 0.6     28.3 0.5     29.1 0.4
 17MAY2017     25.2 1.1     27.6 0.5     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.3
 24MAY2017     24.2 0.4     27.5 0.6     28.4 0.6     29.1 0.3
 31MAY2017     23.7 0.2     27.2 0.5     28.3 0.6     29.2 0.4
 07JUN2017     23.1-0.1     26.9 0.3     28.1 0.4     29.3 0.5
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #351 on: June 19, 2017, 05:01:41 PM »
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM of the weekly Nino indices thru the week ending June 18 2017, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This data hints at a limited probability of a weak El Nino developing later this year; and a better chance of ENSO neutral conditions locking in with a month or so.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #352 on: June 20, 2017, 03:29:29 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -4.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #353 on: June 21, 2017, 03:21:47 AM »
Per the following data and attached plot both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.3:

20170521,20170619,-4.3
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #354 on: June 22, 2017, 03:23:34 AM »
Per the following data and attached plot both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.1:

20170522,20170620,-5.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #355 on: June 23, 2017, 03:27:30 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI moved down to -5.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #356 on: June 24, 2017, 03:30:52 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI moved down to -6.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #357 on: June 25, 2017, 03:27:59 PM »
Just for the record, neither the BoM, nor Long Paddock, current SOI values are available at the moment.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #358 on: June 25, 2017, 03:42:45 PM »
Per the linked website the PDO for May 2017 was +0.88:

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Edit: However, I suspect that ENSO conditions will roughly plateau for some time to come as hinted at by the attached ECMM MJO forecast
« Last Edit: June 25, 2017, 09:40:01 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #359 on: June 26, 2017, 03:30:01 AM »
Per the following data and the attached plot both issued by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI first has moved down to -7.1 then drifted up to -7.0:

20170524,20170622,-6.4
20170525,20170623,-7.1
20170526,20170624,-7.0

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #360 on: June 27, 2017, 04:26:22 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI moved down to -7.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #361 on: Today at 03:24:37 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI plunged down to -9.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #362 on: Today at 03:43:23 AM »


The following NOAA data (& first two plots) and BoM (last two plots) weekly ENSO information, indicate that there is still a possibility of a weak El Nino forming before the end of this year:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 17MAY2017     25.2 1.1     27.6 0.5     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.3
 24MAY2017     24.2 0.4     27.5 0.6     28.4 0.6     29.1 0.3
 31MAY2017     23.7 0.2     27.2 0.5     28.3 0.6     29.2 0.4
 07JUN2017     23.1-0.1     26.9 0.3     28.1 0.4     29.3 0.5
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
 21JUN2017     22.9 0.3     26.7 0.4     28.3 0.7     29.5 0.7
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #363 on: Today at 03:47:38 AM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots were all issued yesterday by the BoM for the week ending June 25 2017, show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  The indicate that there is still a possibly that a weak El Nino might occur by the end of this year:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson