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Author Topic: 2017 ENSO  (Read 41525 times)

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #350 on: June 19, 2017, 04:57:05 PM »
The following and attached NOAA (the first two images of the upper ocean heat anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively) & BoM (the last two images of the Nino 3.4 & the IOD indices, respectively thru the week ending June 18 2017) information indicates that if a weak El Nino is going to occur this year then it needs to start some feedback loops in the coming weeks; otherwise, we are going to lock into an ENSO neutral pattern through the rest of the year:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 10MAY2017     25.4 1.0     27.8 0.6     28.3 0.5     29.1 0.4
 17MAY2017     25.2 1.1     27.6 0.5     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.3
 24MAY2017     24.2 0.4     27.5 0.6     28.4 0.6     29.1 0.3
 31MAY2017     23.7 0.2     27.2 0.5     28.3 0.6     29.2 0.4
 07JUN2017     23.1-0.1     26.9 0.3     28.1 0.4     29.3 0.5
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #351 on: June 19, 2017, 05:01:41 PM »
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM of the weekly Nino indices thru the week ending June 18 2017, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This data hints at a limited probability of a weak El Nino developing later this year; and a better chance of ENSO neutral conditions locking in with a month or so.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #352 on: June 20, 2017, 03:29:29 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -4.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #353 on: June 21, 2017, 03:21:47 AM »
Per the following data and attached plot both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.3:

20170521,20170619,-4.3
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #354 on: June 22, 2017, 03:23:34 AM »
Per the following data and attached plot both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.1:

20170522,20170620,-5.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #355 on: June 23, 2017, 03:27:30 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI moved down to -5.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #356 on: June 24, 2017, 03:30:52 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI moved down to -6.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #357 on: June 25, 2017, 03:27:59 PM »
Just for the record, neither the BoM, nor Long Paddock, current SOI values are available at the moment.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #358 on: June 25, 2017, 03:42:45 PM »
Per the linked website the PDO for May 2017 was +0.88:

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Edit: However, I suspect that ENSO conditions will roughly plateau for some time to come as hinted at by the attached ECMM MJO forecast
« Last Edit: June 25, 2017, 09:40:01 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #359 on: June 26, 2017, 03:30:01 AM »
Per the following data and the attached plot both issued by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI first has moved down to -7.1 then drifted up to -7.0:

20170524,20170622,-6.4
20170525,20170623,-7.1
20170526,20170624,-7.0

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #360 on: June 27, 2017, 04:26:22 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI moved down to -7.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #361 on: June 28, 2017, 03:24:37 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI plunged down to -9.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #362 on: June 28, 2017, 03:43:23 AM »


The following NOAA data (& first two plots) and BoM (last two plots) weekly ENSO information, indicate that there is still a possibility of a weak El Nino forming before the end of this year:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 17MAY2017     25.2 1.1     27.6 0.5     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.3
 24MAY2017     24.2 0.4     27.5 0.6     28.4 0.6     29.1 0.3
 31MAY2017     23.7 0.2     27.2 0.5     28.3 0.6     29.2 0.4
 07JUN2017     23.1-0.1     26.9 0.3     28.1 0.4     29.3 0.5
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
 21JUN2017     22.9 0.3     26.7 0.4     28.3 0.7     29.5 0.7
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #363 on: June 28, 2017, 03:47:38 AM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots were all issued yesterday by the BoM for the week ending June 25 2017, show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  The indicate that there is still a possibly that a weak El Nino might occur by the end of this year:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #364 on: June 29, 2017, 03:26:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI drifted up to -9.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #365 on: June 30, 2017, 03:29:46 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI plunged down to -10.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

rboyd

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #366 on: June 30, 2017, 09:49:19 PM »
"The possibility of a weak El Nino" may have to be changed to stronger language with this rate of descent in the SOI. Or is it just noisier than usual?

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #367 on: July 01, 2017, 03:29:44 AM »
"The possibility of a weak El Nino" may have to be changed to stronger language with this rate of descent in the SOI. Or is it just noisier than usual?

It seems to me that the SOI is always this noisy.

Also, per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI moved down to -11.2:


Edit: The link leads to the Long Paddock daily SOI values, which hints that the 30-day moving averages SOI may soon start increasing a old more negative daily values are replaced by more positive daily values:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
« Last Edit: July 01, 2017, 04:12:18 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #368 on: July 02, 2017, 03:33:24 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI moved up to -10.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #369 on: July 02, 2017, 08:59:47 PM »
ASLR & Co: Longpaddock has released a beta version wrt for ex SOI. Link is: https://beta.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi

Btw, the monthly average for June was -9,45.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #370 on: July 03, 2017, 03:30:23 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -10.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #371 on: July 03, 2017, 04:20:36 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data through the week centered on June 28 2017, the first two images issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA, respectively, and the last two images issued today by the BoM thru the week ending July 2 2017 showing the weekly Nino 3.4 & the IOD, respectively: The ENSO conditions have essentially plateaued and unless the atmospheric conditions become more bullish (for El Nino conditions) then we may well slowly degrade back to ENSO neutral conditions:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 17MAY2017     25.2 1.1     27.6 0.5     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.3
 24MAY2017     24.2 0.4     27.5 0.6     28.4 0.6     29.1 0.3
 31MAY2017     23.7 0.2     27.2 0.5     28.3 0.6     29.2 0.4
 07JUN2017     23.1-0.1     26.9 0.3     28.1 0.4     29.3 0.5
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
 21JUN2017     22.9 0.3     26.7 0.4     28.3 0.7     29.5 0.7
 28JUN2017     22.8 0.4     26.5 0.4     28.1 0.7     29.4 0.6
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #372 on: July 03, 2017, 04:23:59 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots with data thru the week ending July 2 2017, were issued today by the BoM, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, they indicate ENSO conditions have roughly plateaued:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #373 on: July 04, 2017, 03:26:45 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -10.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #374 on: July 05, 2017, 08:25:54 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -9.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #375 on: July 05, 2017, 08:27:49 AM »
The attached POAMA forecast for the Nino 3.4 index was issued by the BoM, with the forecast starting on July 2 2017.  This forecast estimates the ENSO will remain neutral through the rest of 2017.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #376 on: July 06, 2017, 03:26:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -7.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #377 on: July 07, 2017, 03:30:32 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -7.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #378 on: July 08, 2017, 07:25:14 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -6.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #379 on: July 09, 2017, 03:25:15 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #380 on: July 10, 2017, 03:27:33 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -5.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #381 on: July 10, 2017, 05:09:11 PM »
Per the following NOAA data and first two NOAA Eq Pac plots (of the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA, respectively) and the last two weekly indices plots (of the Nino 3.4 & IOD, respectively) issued by the BoM thru the week ending July 9 2017, it appears that ENSO conditions have plateaued on the low side of transient El Nino like conditions.  Conventional wisdom projects these transient El Nino conditions will degrade into ENSO neutral conditions within the next month or so; however, there is a small chance that weak El Nino conditions could persists for some months to come.



                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 31MAY2017     23.7 0.2     27.2 0.5     28.3 0.6     29.2 0.4
 07JUN2017     23.1-0.1     26.9 0.3     28.1 0.4     29.3 0.5
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
 21JUN2017     22.9 0.3     26.7 0.4     28.3 0.7     29.5 0.7
 28JUN2017     22.8 0.4     26.5 0.4     28.1 0.7     29.4 0.6
 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #382 on: July 10, 2017, 05:11:56 PM »
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, thru the week ending July 9 2017.  They collectively indicate plateaued ENSO conditions, with a slight trend towards neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #383 on: July 11, 2017, 03:26:50 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #384 on: July 12, 2017, 03:32:35 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #385 on: July 13, 2017, 03:25:45 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI remained constant at -4.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #386 on: July 14, 2017, 03:25:18 AM »
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.6:

20170613,20170712,-3.6
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #387 on: July 15, 2017, 03:27:45 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #388 on: July 16, 2017, 03:27:23 AM »
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.0:

20170615,20170714,-2.0
« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 03:41:56 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #389 on: July 17, 2017, 03:28:50 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -0.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #390 on: July 17, 2017, 05:13:02 PM »
Based on the following weekly Nino data issued by NOAA thru the week centered on July 12 2017, the first two images issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two images issued today by the BoM thru the week ending July 16 2017 showing the Nino 3.4 and IOD indices, respectively; all indicate that we are likely over the recent ENCO plateau and are likely beginning a slow shift towards more ENSO neutral conditions:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 31MAY2017     23.7 0.2     27.2 0.5     28.3 0.6     29.2 0.4
 07JUN2017     23.1-0.1     26.9 0.3     28.1 0.4     29.3 0.5
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
 21JUN2017     22.9 0.3     26.7 0.4     28.3 0.7     29.5 0.7
 28JUN2017     22.8 0.4     26.5 0.4     28.1 0.7     29.4 0.6
 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
 12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #391 on: July 17, 2017, 05:16:26 PM »
The four images were all issued today by the BoM showing weekly Nino data thru the week ending July 16 2017, & showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Jointly, these indicate that we are still near the recent ENSO plateau but are likely slowly shifting towards more ENSO neutral conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #392 on: July 18, 2017, 03:31:34 AM »
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.3:


20170617,20170716,0.3
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #393 on: July 19, 2017, 03:31:06 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #394 on: July 20, 2017, 03:28:22 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +1.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #395 on: July 21, 2017, 03:27:00 AM »
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +2.5:


20170620,20170719,2.5
« Last Edit: July 21, 2017, 03:34:36 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #396 on: July 22, 2017, 03:27:36 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 ENSO
« Reply #397 on: July 23, 2017, 03:26:29 AM »
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +4.7:

20170622,20170721,4.7
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson