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Poll

Lowest yearly rise of CO2 in the Mauna Loa observatory monthly record in year 2017 :

<0 ppm (to cover all bases)
0 (0%)
+0-0.75 ppm (speedy worldwide trumpian economic meltdown + very positive natural factors)
0 (0%)
+0.75-1.25 ppm (first realistic one imho)
1 (2.3%)
+1.25-1.67 ppm (setting the true poll boxes to 0.33333333ppm)
5 (11.6%)
+1.67-2.00 ppm
4 (9.3%)
+2.00-2.33 ppm
7 (16.3%)
+2.33-2.67 ppm
10 (23.3%)
+2.67-3.00 ppm
7 (16.3%)
+3.00-3.33 ppm
3 (7%)
+3.33-3.67 ppm
1 (2.3%)
>3.67 ppm (current value)
5 (11.6%)

Total Members Voted: 43

Voting closes: April 13, 2017, 06:07:11 AM

Author Topic: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2  (Read 5626 times)

Pmt111500

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2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: January 07, 2017, 07:46:46 AM »
2017 has started, so a new thread for Mauna Loa measurements of airborne CO2. I'm beginning this with the weekly graph over the New Year. Funnily the graph shows a slight spike on 1st January to beginning of  2nd of January, as if New Years festivities could have influenced on the values measured at Mauna Loa. I can't say if this is a recurrent phenomenon on New Year, so not attributing this to human activity. Anyway, the the possible CO2 from human activity (say. from Oahu?) would have to have flowed 12 hours to the measuring location, not sure if the winds were that light on Hawaii this New Year.:
« Last Edit: January 07, 2017, 08:05:29 AM by Pmt111500 »
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crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2017, 01:29:54 PM »
New thread might be good opportunity for new poll. First month to reach 410 perhaps?

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2017, 04:27:51 PM »
New thread might be good opportunity for new poll. First month to reach 410 perhaps?
Smallest yearly rise by month or week?
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2017, 04:20:43 AM »
2017 start of the year at Mauna Loa does not show any ameliaration to the speed of the yearly rise compared to previous years.

Last Week January 1 - 7, 2017 405.91 ppm

1 Year Ago January 1 - 7, 2016 402.03 ppm (+3.88)

10 Years Ago January 1 - 7, 2005 382.08 ppm (+23.83)
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2017, 05:09:56 AM »
Ok, poll's up and I thought this might run for long, the first economic quarter of the year, so people may account factors emanating from the future government of US in. I forgot to set it so you may change your votes. Maybe someone can fix it.
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wehappyfew

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2017, 05:26:34 AM »
First!

Couldn't resist the nice wide interval from 1.25 -1.67

Figure there's gonna be a few anemic months.

DoomInTheUK

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2017, 10:03:19 AM »
I went for 3.0 - 3.33. I think a few feedbacks will help keep it up.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2017, 12:46:41 PM »
I'm not certain what the poll question is.  My guess is:
  • Of the 12 months of 2017, one of the months' average will have a 1-year-ago-to-present atmospheric CO2 growth less than the others.  What will that month's difference be? 

(The first week of January has a +3.88 ppm difference, but the poll is looking for month average differences, not week averages.)

Am I close?
...
1 Year Ago January 1 - 7, 2016 402.03 ppm (+3.88)
...
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2017, 02:00:15 PM »
Yes Tor, smallest difference for any month looking a year back. Still open question could any four consecutive weeks apply.
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Yuha

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2017, 03:29:35 PM »
I think there should actually be more buckets at the lower end.
The recent high values are partly due to El Nino and we can expect some lower rises with a return to more neutral ENSO. At least that is what happened in 1998-99:

     1998  1999  2016
Jan +2.17 +2.92 +2.54
Feb +1.95 +3.09 +3.76
Mar +2.73 +2.44 +3.29
Apr +2.31 +2.33 +4.14
May +2.87 +1.54 +3.74
Jun +3.40 +1.31 +4.01
Jul +3.51 +1.63 +3.08
Aug +3.70 +0.95 +3.32
Sep +3.73 +0.79 +3.40
Oct +3.58 +0.97 +3.28
Nov +3.03 +1.20 +3.37
Dec +2.75 +0.97 +2.63


Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2017, 03:39:45 PM »
From NOAA website month average data (unless I mis-typed):
         2015        2016   Difference
Jan    399.98   402.52   2.54
Feb    400.28   404.04   3.76
Mar   401.54   404.83   3.29
Apr   403.28   407.42   4.14
May   403.96   407.70   3.74
Jun   402.80   406.81   4.01
Jul   401.31   404.39   3.08
Aug   398.93   402.25   3.32
Sep   397.63   401.03   3.40
Oct   398.29   401.57   3.28
Nov   400.16   403.53   3.37
Dec   401.85   404.48   2.63

However, first full week of January data (2016's "first week" didn't start on 1/1)
 2016         2017    Difference
402.11   405.91   3.80

At least last year, the January-January difference was the smallest, but December was 2nd, so I was going to hazard a guess for 2.65 for 2015-16 but when I went to post, I noted that Yuha has posted some relevant data.  So my truly hazardous guess is 2.01.  (This year might end with another El Nino, per that thread's recent postings, so I don't think the small increases will be duplicated.)
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Csnavywx

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2017, 05:28:55 AM »
I think there should actually be more buckets at the lower end.
The recent high values are partly due to El Nino and we can expect some lower rises with a return to more neutral ENSO. At least that is what happened in 1998-99:

     1998  1999  2016
Jan +2.17 +2.92 +2.54
Feb +1.95 +3.09 +3.76
Mar +2.73 +2.44 +3.29
Apr +2.31 +2.33 +4.14
May +2.87 +1.54 +3.74
Jun +3.40 +1.31 +4.01
Jul +3.51 +1.63 +3.08
Aug +3.70 +0.95 +3.32
Sep +3.73 +0.79 +3.40
Oct +3.58 +0.97 +3.28
Nov +3.03 +1.20 +3.37
Dec +2.75 +0.97 +2.63


98-99 was a strong double dip Nina with a flip to a strong -PDO. Might end up being a totally different ball game this time around. I would expect a slowdown this spring just because of the ONI decrease but probably not nearly pronounced as that period.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2017, 10:26:40 AM »
I know 2016's high CO2 was laid at the door of nino but we've seen high years with northern permafrost blamed for the spike?

Issues from the north are not going away so I would expect inputs from soils/permafrost across the north to continue to push yearly values into our futures?

We have also seen repeated droughts over sections of the Amazon and this too must lessen its ability to provide a 'sink' for CO2.

We may have ignited the blue touch paper will our fossil fuel 'habit' but I think mother N. has the 'firework' primed and ready to go!
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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2017, 10:57:20 AM »
Last year's monster El Nino with its extra warming may have woken up a carbon cycle feedback that could be hard to stop. We will know better by the end of 2017.

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2017, 04:11:12 PM »
Yesterday, the twittter bird directed me to a page on Carbonbrief. A guest post by Richard Betts of 8 November last year: How scientists predicted CO2 would breach 400ppm in 2016. It shows a very nice correlation between Enso and annual increase. We can use this for improving our estimates!
Link: https://www.carbonbrief.org/how-scientists-predicted-co2-would-breach-400pm-2016

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2017, 03:43:25 PM »
You have a chance to influence on the result of the poll yourself !  The second week of the year wasn't slow in the rise of CO2 at Mauna Loa looking back a year, every possible voting option is still open :

Last Week January 8 - 14, 2017 405.98 ppm
1 Year Ago January 8 - 14, 2016 402.35 ppm (+3,63 ppm)
10 Years Ago January 8 - 14, 2005 382.92 ppm
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crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2017, 04:28:46 PM »
You have a chance to influence on the result of the poll yourself ! 
Are you saying you can vote or something else?


every possible voting option is still open :

Which it should be as we haven't had Jan average figure yet.

I puzzling comment which seems to state the obvious in rather obscure way or I am totally failing to understand.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2017, 04:48:19 PM »
He is saying we can influence atmospheric CO2 with our votes. I, for one, want to stop this rise so my vote is for 382.28 ppm.  ::)

crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2017, 05:06:00 PM »
At that rate of decline we would soon start a new ice age, definitely a bad idea.  :P

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #19 on: January 16, 2017, 05:54:59 PM »
I voted for 2.00 to 2.33ppm as we are voting on the lowest year on year monthly difference and last year values were inflated by the super el nino.
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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #20 on: January 17, 2017, 09:49:06 AM »
I know here is a threat about CO2, but I found a interesting site, showing the influence of the other greenhouse gases too. I recently saw on TV that there is an increasing use of FCs in air-condition as the temperatures are getting hotter...another "nice" longlasting heat trap-much more effective than CO2...  :-[

About the AGGI (ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX):

The AGGI is a measure of the warming influence of long-lived trace gases and how that influence is changing each year. The index was designed to enhance the connection between scientists and society by providing a normalized standard that can be easily understood and followed. The warming influence of long-lived greenhouse gases is well understood by scientists and has been reported by NOAA through a range of national and international assessments. Nevertheless, the language of scientists often eludes policy makers, educators, and the general public. This index is designed to help bridge that gap. The AGGI provides a way for this warming influence to be presented as a simple index.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #21 on: January 23, 2017, 11:09:48 AM »
I'm considering starting a foul language thread, so linguistically sensitive people could avoid it while Wisconsin removes references to global warming and climate change Off their websites.
The reported numbers of co2 at Mauna Loa for the
Last Week
January 15 - 21, 2017
406.14 ppm

(+3.52ppm)

1 Year Ago
January 15 - 21, 2016
402.62 ppm

10 Years Ago
January 15 - 21, 2005
382.20 ppm
« Last Edit: January 24, 2017, 03:54:18 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #22 on: January 25, 2017, 08:49:11 AM »
"Recent Daily Average Mauna Loa CO2

January 23:     Unavailable
January 22:     Unavailable
January 21:     Unavailable
January 20:     406.17 ppm
January 19:     406.88 ppm
Last Updated: January 24, 2017"

So either they have a major malfunction on their equipment or the co2 levels have fluctuated very much, or something else has happened. I'm afraid this thread might be discontinued if the problem persists. Maybe I can find some other source for co2-data, but then it should be another thread I guess.
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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #23 on: January 25, 2017, 12:55:09 PM »

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #24 on: January 25, 2017, 01:25:59 PM »
Thanks for the link. It appears they still measure co2 at Mauna Loa, anyone wanting to calculate their own year on year weekly trends may still do so provided daily numbers are available.
I think I stop my updates though since I've not built a weekly graph on this since 2014 if I remember correctly. But the numbers are there, only a bit of work needed.
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #25 on: January 25, 2017, 01:32:23 PM »
content://media/external/file/9556

Hmm, let's see if that shows up. Well, no. Might post some of Scripps' images if permitted.
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crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #26 on: January 25, 2017, 02:57:07 PM »
"Recent Daily Average Mauna Loa CO2

January 23:     Unavailable
January 22:     Unavailable
January 21:     Unavailable
January 20:     406.17 ppm
January 19:     406.88 ppm
Last Updated: January 24, 2017"

So either they have a major malfunction on their equipment or the co2 levels have fluctuated very much, or something else has happened. I'm afraid this thread might be discontinued if the problem persists.

January 24:     407.69 ppm
range in hourly measurements does not seem extreme per

so not quite sure why daily averages not produced but presumably they weren't enough that were close enough to constant.
Anyway, apparently not a major malfunction and has returned.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #27 on: January 25, 2017, 04:23:12 PM »
They at Mauna Loa had a very fine method of accepting individual readings if i recall correctly, the hourly readings that is. Maybe there's been a set of these exceptions that have invalidated the couple of days. But yeah, doesn't look too abnormal. Maybe they're just being extra careful here.
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DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #28 on: January 26, 2017, 12:44:48 PM »
January 24:     407.69 ppm

Goodie, it's back.  Not with a good message though.  :-\
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #29 on: January 31, 2017, 05:01:40 AM »
Ah, the source I got used to has also continued weekly reports. Personally, I think there's little point in recording daily values wrt climate and ocean state around Hawaii, so I'm glad to see this continued, thank you  Scripps for sharing data.

Last Week January 22 - 28, 2017 406.48 ppm

1 Year Ago January 22 - 28, 2016 403.12 ppm (+3,36 ppm)

10 Years Ago January 22 - 28, 2005 383.91 ppm

Comma-separated weekly values of data up to 2016/12/31 maybe found at http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/assets/data/atmospheric/stations/in_situ_co2/weekly/weekly_in_situ_co2_mlo.csv

for those who want to check various things about ENSO state influence on CO2-levels thereby spreading the influence of tidally (thus Lunally) driven complex primary oscillator of Current Earth heat transportation system (See Pukite model of ENSO), I gladly leave the MJO to the experts, I think it's a 'freewheel' between continentally restricted 'ENSO ocean shaker' and the completely (well mostly) tidal QBO causing the tropical weather forecasters some difficulties. That the QBO skipped a beat is a fact that should be explained ("GDI!" doesn't apply in science as an explanation, though).

As the El Nino-phase of ENSO throws up a whole bunch of greenhouse gases (almost only CO2 and H2O), which are pretty easily spread out over a whole hemisphere, I'd say the effects of a specific El Nino might remain at least two years on some specific locations.

As the tides may be a bit suppressed on areas with sea ice, the disappearance of Arctic Sea Ice  may lead to related changes elsewhere in the ocean system as well, maybe even on ENSO, but I can't say this for certain. The Baltic has no tides to speak of, so no personal experience on this, additionally the tides (and the associated Ekman? Pumping on coasts due friction with continental shelves) move the whole water column somewhat, as opposed to waves which mix up only the top 20m (approx.). 

Hmm, should check many things of the above but hearing 11000 Finns are banned from entering DSM because of a... ...no I'm not going to that. Comments welcome on the sciency bit. Preferably on some other thread as this is the Mauna Loa CO2 thread, I don't know why I started to write this up here. Sorry for OT.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2017, 05:39:17 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #30 on: January 31, 2017, 05:28:40 AM »
In the first 4 week period (imitating a tidal month in some difficult tidal equation of Laplace (~27,555 days (for Darwin symbol Mm, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_tides#Long_period))) CO2 at Mauna Loa rose by +3,5975 ppm compared to 1 year ago.

So, the highest option in the poll is presumably out. Let's see how this develops.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2017, 09:49:51 PM by Pmt111500 »
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #31 on: February 07, 2017, 02:25:58 AM »
Last Week Jan. 29 - Feb. 4, 2017 406.20 ppm

1 Year Ago Jan. 29 - Feb. 4, 2016 403.84 ppm (+2.36 ppm)

10 Years Ago Jan. 29 - Feb. 4, 2005 383.61 ppm

So the '4-week month' rate of increase during the last year has dropped to +3,2175 ppm. 2 of the highest poll options would thus have been eliminated already in 5th of february. It starts to look like I should have given some more thought to the categories, maybe the poll can be altered closer to the end of first economic quarter of the year.

But hey, who knows, maybe the Chilean forest fires (fe. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38819951) will help keep the numbers high. There's plenty warmer than normal ocean water  on southeastern Pacific. Indonesia and Australia are in pretty healthy state wrt soil moisture as the ElNino has gone away, so the plants would assumedly do pretty well.  http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/#tabs2=Soil-moisture

Even Lake Eyre YC reports parts of the southern border of the lake is navigable www.lakeeyreyc.com/Status/latest.html. Could we see, some time in the future, a Green Aussie Desert if the Sahara stays still a dry desert?
« Last Edit: February 07, 2017, 03:14:45 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #32 on: February 13, 2017, 04:29:42 AM »
Surprised to see the value for the
Last Week February 5 - 11, 2017 406.03 ppm
Already early monday morning. This might be good to check later.
Rise from the last year is also surpsingly small (+1,69 ppm)
1 Year Ago February 5 - 11, 2016 404.34 ppm
Has the Paris accord produced such a decrease in fossil fuel use? Have the plants in Hawaii got a boost from local rains? Is the Pavific around Hawaii cooler than for a long time? Has the President of Trumpistan ordered a local ban on fossil fuel use 30 miles of the measuring station? Maybe the not-cold Arctic has soaked in massive amounts of CO2? Anyway, the longest record of atmospheric CO2 is not showing a drop in the amounts.

10 Years Ago February 5 - 11, 2005 383.37 ppm

I think I'll check this later, before checking the 4 week average. But maybe not. I don't know. Whatever.
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Csnavywx

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #33 on: February 13, 2017, 08:12:37 AM »
Surprised to see the value for the
Last Week February 5 - 11, 2017 406.03 ppm
Already early monday morning. This might be good to check later.
Rise from the last year is also surpsingly small (+1,69 ppm)
1 Year Ago February 5 - 11, 2016 404.34 ppm
Has the Paris accord produced such a decrease in fossil fuel use? Have the plants in Hawaii got a boost from local rains? Is the Pavific around Hawaii cooler than for a long time? Has the President of Trumpistan ordered a local ban on fossil fuel use 30 miles of the measuring station? Maybe the not-cold Arctic has soaked in massive amounts of CO2? Anyway, the longest record of atmospheric CO2 is not showing a drop in the amounts.

10 Years Ago February 5 - 11, 2005 383.37 ppm

I think I'll check this later, before checking the 4 week average. But maybe not. I don't know. Whatever.

There was a huge spike this time last year in the weekly readings before it receeded. It wasn't surpassed again until the 3rd week of March. Meanwhile, we're in a 6-week "flat" period this year. This isn't unusual and happens at differing times each year, mainly based on temperatures and weather patterns over the Northern Hemisphere. This year's value should begin rising again soon and leave behind last year's readings in short order.

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #34 on: February 15, 2017, 12:14:23 AM »

So the '4-week month' rate of increase during the last year has dropped to +3,2175 ppm. 2 of the highest poll options would thus have been eliminated already in 5th of february.

January 2017:       406.13 ppm
January 2016:       402.52 ppm
+3.61

So seems near top of second highest category, so your 4-week month doesn't seem to have worked well. ?  ???

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #35 on: February 15, 2017, 05:21:08 AM »

So the '4-week month' rate of increase during the last year has dropped to +3,2175 ppm. 2 of the highest poll options would thus have been eliminated already in 5th of february.

January 2017:       406.13 ppm
January 2016:       402.52 ppm
+3.61

So seems near top of second highest category, so your 4-week month doesn't seem to have worked well. ?  ???

Yeah, true. Maybe it's better to stick with these monthly figures. Anyway february is 28 days, so one such short month is coming up. Maybe change the poll after 3 more weeks?
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #36 on: February 21, 2017, 06:26:03 AM »
Last Week February 12 - 18, 2017 405.91 ppm
1 Year Ago February 12 - 18, 2016 403.45 ppm (+2.46ppm)
10 Years Ago February 12 - 18, 2005 384.99 ppm

The last week down-anomaly was short and this looks more like what we have learnt to expect in a world of constant economic growth. It could rise way faster if the natural feedbacks kick in bigtime. "It'll be great"
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #37 on: February 27, 2017, 11:18:49 AM »
Last Week February 19 - 25, 2017 406.91 ppm (+2.51ppm)
1 Year Ago February 19 - 25, 2016 404.40 ppm
10 Years Ago February 19 - 25, 2005 384.48 ppm

sinusitis prevents clear thoughts for the moment.
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DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #38 on: February 28, 2017, 01:22:37 PM »
Early spikes towards > 410 ppm

“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #39 on: March 01, 2017, 05:36:22 PM »
4 of the 5 highest readings this year:
February 28:     407.61 ppm
February 27:     407.51 ppm
February 26:     408.58 ppm
February 25:     Unavailable
February 24:     408.28 ppm

(Several higher last year but these are only February and May 16 averaged under 408.)

Predict 406.44 For Feb 17 up 2.4 from Feb 16's 404.04. That cuts the list a bit.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2017, 05:44:52 PM by crandles »

FredBear

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #40 on: March 04, 2017, 12:26:24 AM »
The Met Office forecast for the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide in 2017 suggests that the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the year will be smaller than the rise seen in 2016 – which was the largest annual increase in the 50-year record. Oops  .   .   .  more details:-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/2017-carbondioxide-forecast

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #41 on: March 04, 2017, 10:04:36 AM »
 ::) ::)
The Met Office forecast for the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide in 2017 suggests that the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the year will be smaller than the rise seen in 2016 – which was the largest annual increase in the 50-year record. Oops  .   .   .  more details:-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/2017-carbondioxide-forecast

They're so cool in the MetOffice :)
 ::) ;D :D 8)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #42 on: March 06, 2017, 07:05:52 PM »
The attached image comes from the linked article, which indicates that we are currently on track to reach about 410 ppm peak CO2 atmospheric concentrations at Mauna Loa this year.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/carbon-dioxide-410-ppm-21223
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #43 on: March 06, 2017, 08:24:03 PM »
Last Week, Feb. 26 - Mar. 4, 2017, 407.37 ppm
1 Year Ago, Feb. 26 - Mar. 4, 2016, 404.08 ppm (+3.29 ppm)
10 Years Ago, Feb. 26 - Mar. 4, 2005, 384.04 ppm
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nicibiene

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #44 on: March 08, 2017, 12:00:22 PM »
Just played a little with some graphics to visualise the differences from year to year...
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” –“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” Albert Einstein

crandles

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #45 on: March 09, 2017, 12:48:03 AM »

Predict 406.44 For Feb 17 up 2.4 from Feb 16's 404.04. That cuts the list a bit.

Badly out again.  ;)  Feb was 406.42 up 2.38

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #46 on: March 14, 2017, 10:27:44 PM »
Here is the recent (thru 2016) annual Mauna Loa CO2 concentration:

http://e360.yale.edu/digest/co2-levels-continue-to-increase-at-record-rate

Extract: "For the second year in a row, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have increased at a record rate, jumping 3 parts per million (ppm) in 2016, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. CO2 concentrations rose 3.03 ppm in 2015, making the last two years the first time that the greenhouse gas has risen more than 3 ppm in NOAA’s 59 years of monitoring ..."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #47 on: March 15, 2017, 06:09:17 AM »
Thanks Crandles for following up the calendar month numbers.

Weekly number for the Last Week
Feb. 26 - Mar. 4, 2017 is
407.37 ppm
which is 3.29 ppm more than Weekly number 1 Year Ago, Feb. 26 - Mar. 4, 2016
404.08 ppm
which in turn is about 5.2% more than Weekly number 10 Years Ago, Feb. 26 - Mar. 4, 2005
384.04 ppm

So 5.2% in nine years. that is 5.7‰/year. That doesn't sound too good. Maybe we should abandon CO2 stocks?
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 08:48:40 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #48 on: March 15, 2017, 02:47:38 PM »
Here is the recent (thru 2016) annual Mauna Loa CO2 concentration:

http://e360.yale.edu/digest/co2-levels-continue-to-increase-at-record-rate

Extract: "For the second year in a row, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have increased at a record rate, jumping 3 parts per million (ppm) in 2016, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. CO2 concentrations rose 3.03 ppm in 2015, making the last two years the first time that the greenhouse gas has risen more than 3 ppm in NOAA’s 59 years of monitoring ..."


When I look at this chart and see the trends, particularly the amazing spikes that occur during El Ninos followed by dramatic pull backs, I have to wonder if we are underestimating the ability of the planet to heal itself through natural processes. Could a planet wide effort by humans to green the planet along with a cessation of CO2 emissions put us on path to stable atmospheric CO2 levels and set the stage for reductions sooner then we currently think possible?

I'm grasping for straws here.  :-[

nicibiene

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Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #49 on: March 15, 2017, 02:59:26 PM »

 I have to wonder if we are underestimating the ability of the planet to heal itself through natural processes. ...

I'm grasping for straws here.  :-[

Somehow the planet is healing itself, from a desease called human. I like the idea of the Gaia theory-the earth itself as a living thing. Earth will not die, only the harmfull vermins, thinking they are gods and could rule the world, a hybris no other living thing on earth seems to have.  :'(

Plants will not heal the higher CO2 level. Never. But there will be life that loves the state we will get in.
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” –“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” Albert Einstein