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Author Topic: UK Met Office Decadal Forecasts  (Read 490 times)

Jim Hunt

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UK Met Office Decadal Forecasts
« on: January 31, 2017, 05:38:04 PM »
The January 2017 Met Office decadal forecast has been published. See:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc

and:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/decadal-forecasting

Despite the "decadal" in the title the UKMO forecast is actually for 2021, and is summarised thus:

Averaged over the five-year period 2017-2021, forecast patterns suggest enhanced warming over land, and at high northern latitudes. There is some indication of continued cool conditions in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean and enhanced warming in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Current relatively cool conditions in the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre are predicted to return to more normal conditions with potentially important climate impacts over Europe, America and Africa.

During the five-year period 2017-2021, global average temperature is expected to remain high and is likely to be between 0.42°C and 0.89°C above the long-term (1981-2010) average. This compares with an anomaly of +0.46 ± 0.1 °C observed in 2016 (provisional), which makes 2016 one of the warmest two years on record. These high global temperatures are consistent with continued high levels of greenhouse gases and big changes that are currently underway in the climate system as highlighted in a recent Met Office research news article.

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jai mitchell

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Re: UK Met Office Decadal Forecasts
« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2017, 11:52:54 PM »
I made this in Nov '16 it has obvious conservatisms within the general maintaining of the last 10-year warming trendline through 2035.   For example, a much more rapid removal of aerosols leading to further increased arctic warming producing rapid carbon cycle emissions from (once) frozen soils and a regional increase in albedo forcing which (by 2036) will be equal to approximately 1 watt per meter squared forcing (global average increase) but completely attributed to the arctic ocean.



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