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Jim Hunt

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ClimateGate 2
« on: February 05, 2017, 02:35:03 AM »
This story is too big for the usual destination. It seems ClimateGate 2 is upon us!

NOAA "whistleblower" John Bates has a long guest post on ex Prof. Judith Curry's blog. Archive:

https://archive.is/eE7TS

David Rose in the Mail on Sunday has put his usual spin on the words of Curry and Bates. Archive:

https://archive.is/Lpqb7

More on Twitter from the usual suspects:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/828039136644849665

According to Mr. Rose:

Karl’s ‘Pausebuster’ paper was hugely influential in dictating the world agreement in Paris and sweeping US emissions cuts. President Trump, above right, has pledged to scrap both policies – triggering furious claims by Democrats he is a climate ‘denier’ and ‘anti-science’.

Thanks to today’s MoS story, NOAA is set to face an inquiry by the Republican-led House science committee.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2017, 02:44:18 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Pmt111500

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2017, 05:30:31 AM »
Are people at noaa finally accepting that the evidence of faster than linear global warming is now sufficiently well presented? Somehow I doubt the hearing is about this issue, though.
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budmantis

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2017, 05:45:38 AM »
"Republican led" and "Science committee" in the same sentence is oxymoronic.

Susan Anderson

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2017, 06:04:50 AM »
You underestimate the gallery of villains the Koch apparatus and others have inserted into Trumpworld (and Republican Congressworld). Not an honest one in the bunch. I continue to be awed by the evil and harm that has been and continues to be done, constituting a large part of the life work, not yet over, of Fred Singer. Judith Curry also has a lot to answer for. Happer, Christy, and no doubt we will see the resurrection of Monckton. Delingpole a shoo-in, he's got just the sneer.

Pmt111500

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2017, 06:41:37 AM »
Technically, I'm glad the republicans want to hear about science  ::) , it's a rather new method of understanding the water, earth, fire and wind, following it, rather than praying the respective gods has produced reproducible results. (Copied and Old lame fling at science illiterates such as republicans.)
« Last Edit: February 05, 2017, 07:23:58 AM by Pmt111500 »
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

budmantis

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2017, 07:34:08 AM »
I think for a lot of them "Intelligent Design" would be a big step up from Creationism.

budmantis

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2017, 07:37:24 AM »
You underestimate the gallery of villains the Koch apparatus and others have inserted into Trumpworld (and Republican Congressworld). Not an honest one in the bunch. I continue to be awed by the evil and harm that has been and continues to be done, constituting a large part of the life work, not yet over, of Fred Singer. Judith Curry also has a lot to answer for. Happer, Christy, and no doubt we will see the resurrection of Monckton. Delingpole a shoo-in, he's got just the sneer.

As far as I know, the Koch's didn't support the Trump candidacy at all.

Pmt111500

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2017, 09:02:56 AM »
Ah-ha, have I found the real reason for the border shutdown? They want to prevent people like https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_al-Haytham from entering Trumpistan.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2017, 10:23:25 AM »
Mornin' all (UTC),

I didn't get much sleep last night, what with one thing and another! First up, Zeke Hausfather's take(down?) at Carbon Brief:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-mail-sundays-astonishing-evidence-global-temperature-rise

The first obvious "anomaly" in Mr. Rose's purple prose and pretty pictures is the baseline "confusion" identified by Gavin Schmidt:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/828085939553583105
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2017, 10:46:52 AM »
As far as I know, the Koch's didn't support the Trump candidacy at all.

Note that Susan did mention the "Republican Congressworld" too! On that note you may be interested to learn that I "pre-bunked" Mr. Rose's "Shock News" to the likes of Messrs Inhofe and Rohrabacher:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/827823720609746944

Do you suppose I should now send @POTUS a similar note too?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2017, 11:38:37 AM »
My own initial take on Climategate 2:

Climategate 2 Falls at the First Hurdle?

For the moment at least it looks to us as though the nth iteration of “Climategate 2” barely made it out of the starting gate. However Mr. Rose’s loyal army of “rebloggers, retweeters, plagiarisers and other assorted acolytes” may of course have other ideas?


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Neven

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2017, 02:51:29 PM »
I expect some stolen emails and out-of-context quotes when I hear the term ClimateGate2, not some retired ***hole with a boring non-story on Judith Curry's disinformation blog.
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DrTskoul

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #12 on: February 05, 2017, 03:24:29 PM »
I expect some stolen emails and out-of-context quotes when I hear the term ClimateGate2, not some retired ***hole with a boring non-story on Judith Curry's disinformation blog.

Even the disinformers get old and boring....
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budmantis

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #13 on: February 05, 2017, 03:28:36 PM »
As far as I know, the Koch's didn't support the Trump candidacy at all.

Note that Susan did mention the "Republican Congressworld" too! On that note you may be interested to learn that I "pre-bunked" Mr. Rose's "Shock News" to the likes of Messrs Inhofe and Rohrabacher:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/827823720609746944

Do you suppose I should now send @POTUS a similar note too?

Sorry Susan, the Koch's did invest a lot of money in congressional races. Not supporting Trump tells me that even they have certain standards!

Jim, I would suggest loading your tweet to Trump with as much derision as possible. Its amazing how Trump seems to seep into different threads and I understand why members are sick of it. With Trump in the oval office, its like waking up every morning with the realization that the nightmare you had is reality!

Blizzard92

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #14 on: February 05, 2017, 05:18:11 PM »
The @HouseScience Twitter account is having a field day with their agenda including their own press release: https://twitter.com/HouseScience
UC Irvine - Earth System Science Ph.D. Student
Cornell University - Atmospheric Sciences B.Sc.

Twitter: @ZLabe
Website: http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #15 on: February 05, 2017, 06:17:56 PM »
The @HouseScience Twitter account is having a field day with their agenda

I couldn't resist the temptation, so I just tweeted them and the donald:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/828290361416101888

Amongst others :)
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CognitiveBias

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #16 on: February 05, 2017, 06:40:13 PM »
This story is too big for the usual destination. It seems ClimateGate 2 is upon us!

NOAA "whistleblower" John Bates has a long guest post on ex Prof. Judith Curry's blog. Archive:

https://archive.is/eE7TS

David Rose in the Mail on Sunday has put his usual spin on the words of Curry and Bates. Archive:

https://archive.is/Lpqb7

More on Twitter from the usual suspects:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/828039136644849665

According to Mr. Rose:

Karl’s ‘Pausebuster’ paper was hugely influential in dictating the world agreement in Paris and sweeping US emissions cuts. President Trump, above right, has pledged to scrap both policies – triggering furious claims by Democrats he is a climate ‘denier’ and ‘anti-science’.

Thanks to today’s MoS story, NOAA is set to face an inquiry by the Republican-led House science committee.



Thanks for leading the charge Jim.  Lamar Smith is an unfortunate example of Texas' contribution to national politics.


.. From wiki
Climate change
As of 2015, Smith has received more than $600,000 from the fossil fuel industry during his career in Congress.[46] In 2014, Smith got more money from fossil fuels than he did from any other industry.[47] Smith is publicly skeptical of global warming.[48][49][50] Under his leadership, the House Science committee has held hearings that feature the views of skeptics,[51] subpoenaed the records and communications of scientists who published papers that Smith disapproved of,[48] and attempted to cut NASA's earth sciences budget.[52] He has been criticized for conducting "witch hunts" against climate scientists.[47] In his capacity as Chair of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, Smith issued more subpoenas in his first three years than the committee had for its entire 54-year history.[47] In a June 2016 response letter to the Union of Concerned Scientists, Mr. Smith cited the work of the House Un-American Activities Committee in the 1950s as valid legal precedent for his investigation.[53][54] Smith has a lifetime score of 7% on the National Environmental Scorecard of the League of Conservation Voters.[55][56][57]
On December 1, 2016 as Chair on the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, he tweeted out on behalf of that committee a Breitbart article denying climate change.[58]

Another Lamar Smith moment...
http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/1/27/14395978/donald-trump-lamar-smith

Bill Fothergill

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #17 on: February 05, 2017, 07:08:44 PM »
In Jim's opening comment on this thread, the phrase "Karl's 'Pausebuster' paper" appears. Although used in a different context in the Mail article, the term "pausebuster" is one that is regularly (and disparagingly) used on Roy Spencer's blog when referring to the change in retrieval algorithm which accompanies the transition from Remote Sensing System's ver3.3 to RSS ver4 data.

In this spirit of jollity, I think that a similar type of moniker should be applied to the new retrieval algorithm used by UAH when they went from ver5.6 to ver6 Beta5. My suggestion would be "the Coitus Interruptus" revision, as this seems to be a method of f***ing the planet, whilst fervently hoping there will be no adverse consequences.

It is quite revealing to do a side-by-side comparison of the published TLT anomalies using these two versions, and just such a chart is given below. This shows how the delta between the two versions changes over time. Using UAH v6B5, the 2016 Jan-Dec anomaly was a mere 0.02C higher than the 1998 Jan-Dec figure. However, prior to this revision, 2016 would be 0.17C higher than 1998.

N.B. The pre-revision version of the UAH data is still used by NOAA in their Climate Monitoring pages. See here...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/msu/time-series/global/lt/dec/ann

The underlying data, used to populate the chart below, reveals that UAH version6 beta5 has inflated the 1998 Jan-Dec anomaly by over 0.06C, whilst simultaneously depressing the 2016 Jan-Dec anomaly by over 0.08C. The resultant effect was to reduce the 2016 anomaly by 0.15C w.r.t. its 1998 equivalent.

Perhaps this is OT, and we need to wait until such time as there is a Democrat-led investigation in the House and/or Senate - in which case, it could be Climategate 3.

CognitiveBias

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #18 on: February 05, 2017, 07:23:53 PM »
Bill,
  Do you have an y specific issues with the new algo?  It seems you dislike the results and are implying some level of malfeasance.





Neven

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #19 on: February 05, 2017, 08:07:14 PM »
I agree, Bill. You don't have to imply it.  ;D
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Bill Fothergill

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #20 on: February 05, 2017, 08:13:00 PM »
Bill,
  Do you have an y specific issues with the new algo?  It seems you dislike the results and are implying some level of malfeasance.


I'll repeat the relevant section from my first paragraph...
"... the term "pausebuster" is one that is regularly (and disparagingly) used on Roy Spencer's blog when referring to the change in retrieval algorithm which accompanies the transition from Remote Sensing System's ver3.3 to RSS ver4 data."

Gistemp LOTI, HADCrut, HadSST and NOAA NCEI numbers all show 2016 as being considerably warmer than 1998.

NASA's "vital signs" show 2016 mean sea level as being about 61 millimetres higher than that for 1998.
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

For any month you care to name, PIOMAS shows a loss of around six or seven thousand cubic kilometres of Arctic Sea Ice from 1998 until the present.

Meanwhile, Roy Spencer's take on all this is that, as the difference is just 0.02C in their annualised anomaly, 1998 and 2016 are statistically inseparable. In addition, the good doctor doesn't seem to want to acknowledge that, in terms of rolling 12-month periods, the last 6 (i.e. Sep2015-Aug2016 to Feb2016-Jan2017) were all above any previous 12-month average. If one takes any longer rolling average period (2 years, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years etc.) using the UAH ver6 Beta5 date, the story is just the same.

Traditionally, in terms of climatology, average temperatures are taken over a period of 30 years. As such, each year has an identical weighting - the "cold" years have just as much effect on the climatology as the "hot" years. That seems to be forgotten in certain quarters.

It's up to you if you wish to categorise the differences produced by the two algorithms as malfeasance, observer bias, or whatever. I've plotted the deltas on a chart, and people can make up their own minds.

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #21 on: February 05, 2017, 08:29:37 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Bill Fothergill

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #22 on: February 05, 2017, 09:39:12 PM »
Whilst doing a bit of digging (on the internet, not in the garden) I came across a fascinating little snippet concerning Thomas Karl. This is the "Karl" who is referred to in the Mail article Jim Hunt linked to in the opening comment on this thread.

It is contained in a Floor Statement made by the ever-amusing "Mountain" Jim Inhofe, the senior senator from Oklahoma...
http://www.epw.senate.gov/speechitem.cfm?party=rep&id=230594

The relevant bit reads as follows...
"Dr. Thomas R. Karl, senior scientist at the National Climate Data Center [sic], who corrected the U.S. surface temperatures for the urban heat-island effect and found that there has been a downward temperature trend since 1940. This suggests a strong warming bias in the surface-based temperature record."

Yeah, right.

The preceding paragraph was equally interesting...
"NASA scientists Roy Spencer and John Christy whose satellite data, validated independently by measurements from NOAA balloon radiosonde instruments, show that the atmosphere has not warmed as alarmists theorize."

One could simply accept the claim about "validated independently by measurements from NOAA balloon radiosonde instruments, show that the atmosphere has not warmed", or, just for a laugh, one could look at the latest NOAA State of the Climate statement on radiosonde temperatures. This states that the RATPAC (Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Product for Assessing Climate) clocked up its warmest ever anomaly in, wait for it, 2016. The linear trend over its 59-year history is currently ~ +0.17C/decade.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/upper-air/201613

Below is a slightly out of date chart showing the radiosonde trend up to 2010.


Where's my Climategate 3?



mikkel

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #23 on: February 05, 2017, 10:38:37 PM »
Mornin' all (UTC),


The first obvious "anomaly" in Mr. Rose's purple prose and pretty pictures is the baseline "confusion" identified by Gavin Schmidt:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/828085939553583105

Does anyone have an good ideas on how to get the principals behind temperature data to all start using the same *pre-industrial* baseline? For the love of God, it is so important for all communication. So much is made of 2 degree threshold, but that threshold is meaningless when they aren't shown in any of the data or official reporting!

I have seen so many media stories that are completely inaccurate about how much warming there has been, and the majority of them are written in good faith.

I am actually engaged and can't remember what adjustments to give each data set, how is the general public supposed to?

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #24 on: February 05, 2017, 11:32:26 PM »
As Zeke suggested, the latest installment of the David & Judy Show has proved to be part of a coordinated attack on NOAA by the House Science Committee. Here's their press release:

https://science.house.gov/news/press-releases/former-noaa-scientist-confirms-colleagues-manipulated-climate-records

and here's our freshly extended "Alternative Facts" research project:

https://www.researchgate.net/project/Alternative-Facts-in-the-Arctic
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DrTskoul

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #25 on: February 05, 2017, 11:58:26 PM »
As Zeke suggested, the latest installment of the David & Judy Show has proved to be part of a coordinated attack on NOAA by the House Science Committee. Here's their press release:

https://science.house.gov/news/press-releases/former-noaa-scientist-confirms-colleagues-manipulated-climate-records

and here's our freshly extended "Alternative Facts" research project:

https://www.researchgate.net/project/Alternative-Facts-in-the-Arctic


Infuriating....
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Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #26 on: February 06, 2017, 12:49:02 AM »
Jim, I would suggest loading your tweet to Trump with as much derision as possible.

Is this derisive enough for you?

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/828389562170953728
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Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #27 on: February 06, 2017, 01:24:14 AM »
Ex Prof. Judith Curry is apparently quite content that the Mail on Sunday have changed the caption under David Rose's "anomalous baseline" graph.

I am endeavouring to explain to her how these matters are supposed to be resolved here in the once Great Britain:

Judith – Do you seriously expect us to accept that changing the caption and not the graph, without apology, satisfies clause 1.ii of the IPSO Editors Code of Practice?


http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/climategate-2-falls-at-the-first-hurdle/#comment-217736
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FishOutofWater

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #28 on: February 06, 2017, 01:45:24 AM »
The whole ridiculous Daily Fail article is one mistake, distortion and lie after another. I wondered about the personal attacks made on the P.I. Dr. Karl. They are untrue. There's a strong case for a defamation law suit if Dr. Karl saw fit to make it. The Mail article is libelous.

This situation is both hilarious and maddening. The pie in his own face incompetence of Rose is hilarious but the chilling effect on science of Smith's witch hunts is maddening.

Peter Thorne encouraged people, in his comments section to reblog his post http://icarus-maynooth.blogspot.com/2017/02/on-mail-on-sunday-article-on-karl-et-al.html

so here it is (quoted text in teal).

Sunday, February 5, 2017
On the Mail on Sunday article on Karl et al., 2015
There is an "interesting" piece (use of quotes intentional) in the Mail on Sunday today around the Karl et al., 2015 Science paper.

There are a couple of relevant pieces arising from Victor Venema and Zeke Hausfather already available which cover most of the science aspects and are worth a read. I'm adding some thoughts because I worked for three and a bit years in the NOAA group responsible in the build-up to the Karl et al. paper (although I had left prior to that paper's preparation and publication). I have been involved in and am a co-author upon all relevant underlying papers to Karl et al., 2015.

The 'whistle blower' is John Bates who was not involved in any aspect of the work. NOAA's process is very stove-piped such that beyond seminars there is little dissemination of information across groups. John Bates never participated in any of the numerous technical meetings on the land or marine data I have participated in at NOAA NCEI either in person or remotely. This shows in his reputed (I am taking the journalist at their word that these are directly attributable quotes) mis-representation of the processes that actually occured. In some cases these mis-representations are publically verifiable.

I will go through a small selection of these in the order they appear in the piece:



1. 'Insisting on decisions and scientific choices that maximised warming and minised documentation'

Dr. Tom Karl was not personally involved at any stage of ERSSTv4 development, the ISTI databank development or the work on GHCN algorithm during my time at NOAA NCEI. At no point was any pressure bought to bear to make any scientific or technical choices. It was insisted that best practices be followed throughout. The GHCN homogenisation algorithm is fully available to the public and bug fixes documented. The ISTI databank has been led by NOAA NCEI but involved the work of many international scientists. The databank involves full provenance of all data and all processes and code are fully documented. The paper describing the databank was held by the journal for almost a year (accepted October 2013, published September 2014) to allow the additional NOAA internal review processes to complete. The ERSSTv4 analysis also has been published in no fewer than three papers. It also went through internal review and approval processes including a public beta release prior to its release which occurred prior to Karl et al., 2015.

2. 'NOAA has now decided the sea dataset will have to be replaced and revised just 18 months after it was issued, because it used unreliable methods which overstated the speed of warming'

While a new version of ERSST is forthcoming the reasoning is incorrect here. The new version arises because NOAA and all other centres looking at SST records are continuously looking to develop and refine their datasets. The ERSSTv4 development completed in 2013 so the new version reflects over 3 years of continued development and refinement. All datasets I have ever worked upon have undergone version increments. Measuring in the environment is a tough proposition - its not a repeatable lab experiment - and measurements were never made for climate. It is important that we continue to strive for better understanding and the best possible analyses of the imperfect measurements. That means being open to new, improved, analyses. The ERSSTv4 analysis was a demonstrable improvement on the prior version and the same shall be true in going to the next version once it also has cleared both peer-review and the NOAA internal process review checks (as its predecessor did).


3. 'The land temperature dataset used by the study was afflicted by devestating bugs in its software that rendered its findings unstable' (also returned to later in the piece to which same response applies)

The land data homogenisation software is publically available (although I understand a refactored and more user friendly version shall appear with GHCNv4) and all known bugs have been identified and their impacts documented. There is a degree of flutter in daily updates. But this does not arise from software issues (running the software multiple times on a static data source on the same computer yields bit repeatability). Rather it reflects the impacts of data additions as the algorithm homogenises all stations to look like the most recent segment. The PHA algorithm has been used by several other groups outside NOAA who did not find any devestating bugs. Any bugs reported during my time at NOAA were investigated, fixed and their impacts reported.
 

4. 'The paper relied on a preliminary alpha version of the data which was never approved or verified'

The land data of Karl et al., 2015 relied upon the published and internally process verified ISTI databank holdings and the published, and publically assessable homogenisation algorithm application thereto. This provenance satisfied both Science and the reviewers of Karl et al. It applied a known method (used operationally) to a known set of improved data holdings (published and approved).


5. [the SST increase] 'was achieved by dubious means'

The fact that SST measurements from ships and buoys disagree with buoys cooler on average is well established in the literature. See IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 2 SST section for a selection of references by a range of groups all confirming this finding. ERSSTv4 is an anomaly product. What matters for an anomaly product is relative homogeneity of sources and not absolute precision. Whether the ships are matched to buoys or buoys matched to ships will not affect the trend. What will affect the trend is doing so (v4) or not (v3b). It would be perverse to know of a data issue and not correct for it in constructing a long-term climate data record.

6. 'They had good data from buoys. And they threw it out [...]'

v4 actually makes preferential use of buoys over ships (they are weighted almost 7 times in favour) as documented in the ERSSTv4 paper. The assertion that buoy data were thrown away as made in the article is demonstrably incorrect.

7. 'they had used a 'highly experimental early run' of a programme that tried to combine two previously seperate sets of records'

Karl et al used as the land basis the ISTI databank. This databank combined in excess of 50 unique underlying sources into an amalgamated set of holdings. The code used to perform the merge was publically available, the method published, and internally approved. This statement therefore is demonstrably false.
 

There are many other aspects of the piece that I disagree with. Having worked with the NOAA NCEI team involved in land and SST data analysis I can only say that the accusations in the piece do not square one iota with the robust integrity I see in the work and discussions that I have been involved in with them for over a decade.

Posted by PeterThorne at 2:19 AM

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #29 on: February 06, 2017, 02:08:18 AM »
There's a strong case for a defamation law suit if Dr. Karl saw fit to make it. The Mail article is libelous.

How does Transatlantic libel law work? We have such things on this side of the pond, but I thought on the far side they have a "First Amendment"?

Which jurisdiction applies in this case?
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Pmt111500

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #30 on: February 06, 2017, 04:00:01 AM »
Thanks B.Fothergill for the graph.
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

budmantis

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #31 on: February 06, 2017, 05:05:36 AM »
Jim, I would suggest loading your tweet to Trump with as much derision as possible.

Is this derisive enough for you?

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/828389562170953728

Get ready for an early morning twitter rant from the "Tweeter in Chief"!

northsylvania

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #32 on: February 06, 2017, 10:00:48 AM »
Perhaps it's an exercise in futility to contact any politician as they simply don't have the background to understand any argument you may have. If someone were to put the points you have made to a more responsible news outlet (Guardian, WaPo?) the subject would be pre-digested enough. Links to that article could then be tweeted or sent to various and sundry.

silkman

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #33 on: February 06, 2017, 10:21:04 AM »
Predictably, Matt Ridley is all over this story in The Times this morning:

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/politics-and-science-are-a-toxic-combination-706jm3hqv

The sad fact is that in our "post truth" world any open and rational responses to the story will have little influence on, not just the denier community, but on the mass of folk who are not sufficiently engaged to take an informed view.

It seems to me that we may be making a rod for our own backs by putting this highly sophisticated and complex data set supporting the warming of the planet front and centre of the Climate Change debate.

We all know that the insidious increase in heat being retained by our planet as a result of anthropogenic impacts on the atmosphere are real and essentially irreversible. And most dramatic is the one that this Community is dedicated to.

Perhaps our best response to attempts to undermine confidence in the data we have on the temperature of our warming planet is to continue to showcase the impact of all that excess heat on the Arctic ice.

The ice cubes cooling our global gin and tonic are rapidly disappearing and the implications are clear.

Surely this is the counter argument that says it all:

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #34 on: February 06, 2017, 11:02:37 AM »
Predictably, Matt Ridley is all over this story in The Times this morning

Mornin' all (UTC)

Hopefully this will put the cat (and rabett) amongst the pigeons?

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/828534630827622401

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #35 on: February 06, 2017, 11:15:07 AM »
Anybody here a Times subscriber? I wanted to bring my cutting edge research on "Alternative Facts in Climate Science" to Matt's attention, but I don't seem to be able to pass comment on his article :(

I fully agree with Matt on this hot topic, which is one of the many reasons why I "pre-bunked" the attack on NOAA by sending this message to Dana Rohrabacher amongst others on Saturday:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/827823720609746944
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

northsylvania

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #36 on: February 06, 2017, 11:54:54 AM »

Buddy

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #37 on: February 06, 2017, 12:08:02 PM »
Ex Prof. Judith Curry is apparently quite content that the Mail on Sunday have changed the caption under David Rose's "anomalous baseline" graph.

So.....did Georgia Tech tire of her....did Tech force her out?  Or did she decide that the money from fossil fuels was too good to pass up? 
FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #38 on: February 06, 2017, 12:49:36 PM »
So.....did Georgia Tech tire of her....did Tech force her out?  Or did she decide that the money from fossil fuels was too good to pass up?


Allegedly she wasn't pushed. Judy makes her money from ENSO forecasting apparently:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/12/expensive-enso-expertise/
« Last Edit: February 06, 2017, 01:09:38 PM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

DrTskoul

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #39 on: February 06, 2017, 12:54:05 PM »
So.....did Georgia Tech tire of her....did Tech force her out?  Or did she decide that the money from fossil fuels was too good to pass up?


Allegedly she wasn't pushed. Judy makes her money from ENSO forecasting apparently:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/12/expensive-enso-expertise/


How lovely. An ENSO diviner....
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #40 on: February 06, 2017, 01:11:00 PM »
How lovely. An ENSO diviner....

She probably forecasts other stuff too? I only asked her about ENSO!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

FishOutofWater

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #41 on: February 06, 2017, 04:00:55 PM »
There's a strong case for a defamation law suit if Dr. Karl saw fit to make it. The Mail article is libelous.

How does Transatlantic libel law work? We have such things on this side of the pond, but I thought on the far side they have a "First Amendment"?

Which jurisdiction applies in this case?

Since it was published in the UK, UK law would have jurisdiction. Of course, a good lawyer can argue anything so my clear cut answer would not be so clear once a lawyer argued the case.

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #42 on: February 06, 2017, 10:56:58 PM »
Note that the John 'n Judy "Peter Thorne rebuttal" has hit the streets. See

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/climategate-2-falls-at-the-first-hurdle/#comment-217782

Oh, and ex Prof. Judy is "moderating" many of my pithier comments. And other peoples. If I seem somewhat subdued over there you now know why!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

DrTskoul

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #43 on: February 06, 2017, 11:07:23 PM »
Note that the John 'n Judy "Peter Thorne rebuttal" has hit the streets. See

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/climategate-2-falls-at-the-first-hurdle/#comment-217782

Washington times has also picked up the ugly noise...

Oh, and ex Prof. Judy is "moderating" many of my pithier comments. And other peoples. If I seem somewhat subdued over there you now know why!
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #44 on: February 07, 2017, 02:54:24 AM »
After an exhausting day battling the donald's denizens deep in the heart of darkness an ad hoc team of celebrity international chefs have created a warming and educational nightcap for “warmists” around the planet:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/climategate-2-falls-at-the-first-hurdle/#Feb-6

Once you've drained the very last drop from the virtual mug scroll up slightly to watch the glorious Dan & Dan perform their astonishingly prescient "Daily Mail Song".

Nighty night.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #45 on: February 07, 2017, 07:08:59 PM »
An intriguing interview with ""Whistleblower" John Bates:

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060049630

The federal climate scientist hailed by conservatives as a whistleblower for allegedly revealing manipulated global warming data said yesterday he was actually calling out a former colleague for not properly following agency standards for research.

In an interview with E&E News yesterday, former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration principal scientist John Bates had a significantly more nuanced take on the controversy that has swirled since a top House Republican hailed his blog post as proof that the agency "played fast and loose" with temperature data to disprove the theory of a global warming "pause."

Bates accused former colleagues of rushing their research to publication, in defiance of agency protocol. He specified that he did not believe that they manipulated the data upon which the research relied in any way.

"The issue here is not an issue of tampering with data, but rather really of timing of a release of a paper that had not properly disclosed everything it was," he said
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #46 on: February 07, 2017, 09:01:14 PM »
A Great White Con news release earlier today seems to have caused a certain amount of consternation amongst the denizens at Climate Etc.

As a reward for her excess snippage, and unbeknownst to her, I have given ex Prof. Judy a 4 hour exclusive on this "Shock News". More here in due course!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #47 on: February 08, 2017, 12:44:51 AM »
I gave ex Prof. Judy an exclusive on this GWC news release for today (UTC). Now all can be revealed in here!

Speaking from their Ivory Towers near the North Pole, Great White Con spokesperson Snow White announced by the light of the silvery moon:

We are extremely proud to have been selected as Feedspot’s 21st best Global Warming blog on the web. Whilst it’s galling to be below WUWT we’re well ahead of the GWPF and Climate Etc. is nowhere to be seen.

By way of celebration we have some Shock News to impart!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/beta-testing-snow-whites-alternate-fact-detector/

We flipped the switch on the first beta test version of Snow White’s Alternative Facts Wetware™ (AFW™ for short) AF detection subsystem early on Saturday morning (UTC). We were astonished when the needle literally flew past the end stops later that morning. Initially we suspected a bug must have sneaked in via one of Snow’s unprotected ear canals. However when she rather reluctantly ran her exhaustive diagnostic routines they revealed that her mission was in actual fact absolutely nominal.

What happened next therefore came as no surprise whatsoever.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #48 on: February 08, 2017, 12:48:39 AM »
See also this take on temperature measurements in general and Arctic temps in particular from Kevin Cowtan of the University of York, one half of the now world famous "Cowtan & Way" duo:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/climategate-2-falls-at-the-first-hurdle/#Feb-7
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

6roucho

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Re: ClimateGate 2
« Reply #49 on: February 08, 2017, 11:22:41 AM »
You underestimate the gallery of villains the Koch apparatus and others have inserted into Trumpworld (and Republican Congressworld). Not an honest one in the bunch. I continue to be awed by the evil and harm that has been and continues to be done, constituting a large part of the life work, not yet over, of Fred Singer. Judith Curry also has a lot to answer for. Happer, Christy, and no doubt we will see the resurrection of Monckton. Delingpole a shoo-in, he's got just the sneer.

As far as I know, the Koch's didn't support the Trump candidacy at all.
There's an interesting "enemy of my enemy is my friend" dynamic between the libertarian right and Trump. On the one hand, he comes bearing extravagant gifts (the renunciation of science as a source of information) but on the other hand he's everything they fear (trillion dollar stimulus, nuclear Armageddon etc.). Like a cyanide praline. Interesting times.