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johnm33

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2017 open thread
« on: February 17, 2017, 01:50:12 PM »
If it's about the Arctic and 2017 with no obvious home here's where it belongs.
This paper outlines the area l've been thinking about http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms2505 illustrated here.
http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms2505/figures/1
 Whenever i thought tides and turbulence were running high in Baffin/Labrador there'd be streamers emerging from the ocean, there must be a more technical name for them but illustrated here. http://go.nasa.gov/2lpzqDm just by Hudson strait last full moon. So now when i see streamers i suspect vortices, this implies that angular momentum is carried through phase transition, is that possible? c+d in fig 4 from the paper illustrate the current across the north barents sea slope, it's my contention that this is a tidally driven current that is increasing as the resistance of the ice in the Arctic weakens. The weakening has two immediate causes the first is the reduction in the amount of kinetic energy needed to forge a path through the ice, that is when there was thick ice the underside caused huge amounts of turbulence dissipating any coherent stream, like a baffle, the second is that the ice has less mass and moves more readily. This second means that given the right/wrong wind conditions the current will be accelerated or slowed by mass ice movement.   The only analogy that springs to mind is where every turn of a roundabout you add a little to the momentum,and when the current reaches some threshold the fractions within it become organised and an overturning c/w current evolves, so as the tidal forcing continues and the resistance fails the current increases and we may have some way to go before both its flow and vorticity peaks.
In the first image below, despite being long after the full moon some streamers are showing, and possibly some ice is being accelerated away from the front. The second shows some streamers a little closer to Svalbard.


Food for thought.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2017, 01:19:35 PM by johnm33 »

johnm33

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2017, 03:26:38 PM »
It's worth clicking through the days on these two, http://go.nasa.gov/2kVUm0r  http://go.nasa.gov/2kYzDcs both set to jan27 just before last new moon, This is a detail from the paper mentioned above, showing the flow of Atlantic waters into the arctic.

There's a lot going on but look at feb.8 et. seq. when the winds drove the ice back from Fram, and generally back towards Laptev there appears to be a surge of warmer water from [?] Amundsen/Nansen basins which dislodges this seasons [4m+] fast ice/ ice shelf from northern Greenland this water then appears to flow as a deep stream down the east coast, generating its own streamers which then grow in scale. Is that an induced flow of Atlantic water? but by feb.13, 2 days after the full moon the streamers reappear north of Barents, which I'm assuming indicates the re-establishment of the overturning current. One other thing is that streamers appear from the course of Atlantic waters flowing through to St. Anna trough which surprised me.
Looking forward we have the new moon in a few days and the associated tidal extremes. So in the abscence of high winds moving the ice around disrupting bottom waters I expect we'll see the establishment of a powerful flow across the north slope, and rapid acceleration of the ice to it's destruction in Barents, but even with disruption the shattered state of the ice presents no resistance to the influx of Atlantic waters and whatever surges in will displace the same amount of near surface 'resident' mass.
There's a tide chart here indicating the change of flow, I chose this assuming it's limited tidal range indicated it wasn't in a large bay or estuary. https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Bodo-Norway/tides/latest
ht to bairgon and seaicesailor for the layers on worldview.

johnm33

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2017, 02:17:30 PM »
Regarding the above speculation i was looking at east Greenland for signs of melt or movement, and saw this. Is it really that full of sediment, and from where?

from http://go.nasa.gov/2lUmoOh
 http://membrane.com/sidd/greenland-2013/45-090.jpg
added, this surge east is probably relevent
« Last Edit: February 25, 2017, 03:38:11 PM by johnm33 »


Tigertown

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2017, 07:39:24 PM »
@bairgon

You should cross-post those pics in the melting thread. Good ones.

CognitiveBias

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2017, 07:53:12 PM »
Some crazy thoughts about strengthening the ice cap...  not sure if this has been proposed before, but its quite a simple...

In order to more fully take advantage of the FDDs, we need to constantly flood the top of the cap with sea water.  The right flow should all freeze with the minimum effort.   Something on the order of 1 cm top ice per FDD with a constant flow of near freezing sea water.

In this manner 5M thick ice could be produced over large area each winter.  The pumping technology should be easy....  wind power perhaps.  Not so easy maybe, given the environment, but a good challenge for the oil majors anyway.

 Flame away...   8) 8) 8)



 

dnem

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2017, 08:34:30 PM »
You're not the first to think of this and it's been covered at the Forum a few times as well:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/12/plan-to-refreeze-arctic-before-ice-goes-for-good-climate-change

Tough environment to build lots of windmill pumps, no?

Archimid

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2017, 01:26:46 AM »
I think that by controlling export through fram/garlic press/Bering stretch , enough ice could be saved to prolong the demise of the Arctic.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

jdallen

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2017, 05:56:28 AM »
I think that by controlling export through fram/garlic press/Bering stretch , enough ice could be saved to prolong the demise of the Arctic.
The problem with this idea along with that of trying to pump seawater to the top of the ice to build it up, is both fail to understand the scale of resources and energy necessary to implement them.

While they are presented as "simple" solutions they do not begin to address the work required.  Blocking the Fram and the channels in the CAA would without question take more resources and energy than every other major civil enterprise ever attempted, combined.

The pump idea would require the placement (and continuing maintenance...) of literally 10's of millions of pumps, which would themselves require the energy to pump thousands of KM3 of sea water across the ice.  To keep that incontext, the City of New York pumps only about 2.0 KM3 of waste water during an entire *year*; we're talking about pumping over five thousand times that. 

In short, I consider even the *discussion* of such a solution utterly nonsensical, and a distraction from much more effective and rational discussions about mitigating the proximate cause of the problem we are faced with.
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Cid_Yama

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2017, 08:06:26 AM »
When there is nothing that can be done, that which cannot be done will be grasped at, rather than admit it is beyond us.

By the time we knew there was a problem, we were far past solutions.  Sometimes you just don't realize until it's too late.

Irrigation, dams and agriculture put us outside the envelope, beyond the environment governing our numbers and impact.

Which puts us thousands of years late in grasping the consequences.  Shit happens.

We had a good run.   

TerryM

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2017, 08:30:51 AM »
Very nice Cid, and very true.
The future was ours, and be blew it.



Terry

5to10

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2017, 12:51:46 PM »
Very nice Cid, and very true.
The future was ours, and be blew it.



Terry
It's pretty true. However I think many of us are inclined to grasp at straws now as there's no lifeline left to reach for.

Archimid

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2017, 12:59:05 PM »
When there is nothing that can be done, that which cannot be done will be grasped at, rather than admit it is beyond us.

I think that by controlling export through fram/garlic press/Bering stretch , enough ice could be saved to prolong the demise of the Arctic.
The problem with this idea along with that of trying to pump seawater to the top of the ice to build it up, is both fail to understand the scale of resources and energy necessary to implement them.

While they are presented as "simple" solutions they do not begin to address the work required.  Blocking the Fram and the channels in the CAA would without question take more resources and energy than every other major civil enterprise ever attempted, combined.

The pump idea would require the placement (and continuing maintenance...) of literally 10's of millions of pumps, which would themselves require the energy to pump thousands of KM3 of sea water across the ice.  To keep that incontext, the City of New York pumps only about 2.0 KM3 of waste water during an entire *year*; we're talking about pumping over five thousand times that. 

In short, I consider even the *discussion* of such a solution utterly nonsensical, and a distraction from much more effective and rational discussions about mitigating the proximate cause of the problem we are faced with.

I do not fail to grasp the magnitude of what I'm suggesting. Whatever is done to stop or reverse climate change will take a significant percentage of the total energy used during the 20th century. That is unthinkably large.

That something is extremely difficult doesn't mean it is impossible.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

5to10

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2017, 01:05:11 PM »

I do not fail to grasp the magnitude of what I'm suggesting. Whatever is done to stop or reverse climate change will take a significant percentage of the total energy used during the 20th century. That is unthinkably large.

That something is extremely difficult doesn't mean it is impossible.

It does when there's no collective focus or any push to do anything right now, which is a variable that most are accounting for but not thinking up solutions for.

There are no replies in the thread I posted, but what option do we have left for focus rather than a paradigm shift in news media, leading them to work together to direct the attention and focus of most of humanity towards solutions immediately.

There really is no way forward right now without newsmedia coming together and basically forcefeeding reality to everybody, rather than distracting and diverting as it does now. They need to get on the same page and stop reporting inconsequential bullshit or I see no way to begin reversing trends or implementing real solutions.

There's not really any refuting it, we need a shift and focus of global consciousness ASAP and the only way to achieve that is through the collective forces of existing news media, which reaches most everybody, every day.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2017, 01:19:45 PM »
I'm struggling to understand things myself 5to10?

I worry that there is such a thing as 'The Elite' and that they do only have their interests at heart. If so then they know full well what is coming but feel secure that they can avoid harm?

My concern is part of their 'belief' relies upon us ripping ourselves apart and leaving them alone.

I have seen the way they have divided the developed world with fear of 'other' and set person against person. I have seen the way Media was utilised in providing these conditions.

Why would they suddenly decide to try and undo all they have achieved over the past 30 years???

As with a lot of things I believe the only way for us to bring about meaningful change is from the 'bottom up'. We, the people, have the expertise and access to our own 'media' so it is up to us to force an understanding of the peril we face to a distracted populace? The more people aware the bigger the chance of finding folk whose ideas/outlook are what we are needing but we need to organise.
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5to10

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2017, 02:04:48 PM »
I'm struggling to understand things myself 5to10?

I worry that there is such a thing as 'The Elite' and that they do only have their interests at heart. If so then they know full well what is coming but feel secure that they can avoid harm?

My concern is part of their 'belief' relies upon us ripping ourselves apart and leaving them alone.

I have seen the way they have divided the developed world with fear of 'other' and set person against person. I have seen the way Media was utilised in providing these conditions.

Why would they suddenly decide to try and undo all they have achieved over the past 30 years???

As with a lot of things I believe the only way for us to bring about meaningful change is from the 'bottom up'. We, the people, have the expertise and access to our own 'media' so it is up to us to force an understanding of the peril we face to a distracted populace? The more people aware the bigger the chance of finding folk whose ideas/outlook are what we are needing but we need to organise.

I have been forgetting that many people aware of impending climate change disaster are not necessarily proponents that much of what we know is a lie.. But I am. If it isn't obvious by the almost complete and total lack of mention of climate change by either party in the recent election, it should be.

There is absolutely no scenario wherein elites of this world are not aware of the truth. Many of their businesses have no doubt been affected by climate change. Also, while we as the public are exposed to untold amounts of information, only some of which may be true, and we have to discern that for ourselves... They get the best think tanks and intelligence delivered directly which they can immediately trust as being factual.

They have known about this for decades, it's time anyone on the fence here accepted it. We are a society of debt slaves living in a state of partial fantasy which is regulated and maintained by the very upper sect, by way of using and ultimately controlling LANGUAGE (the written and spoken word, i.e. newsmedia) as a means of mass mind control. That is, the most powerful and consistent influence in our opinions and thus worldviews. At its most fundamental this is what is happening, this is what has been happening for decades or more.  A cursory glance into the work and influence of Edward Bernays in the early 20th century will cement this for you.

My current belief is that all are aware we are doomed, very soon. Trump is not only casting doubt on news, but INFORMATION AS A WHOLE. So, pretty much all of us will inherently have less of an instinct to trust any information we read online as a result of this recent war on "fake news". There is a campaign to leave us utterly confused as to what is real, and what is not.

As more information on the abrupt changes we are facing comes out, it will be in a world where it is harder and harder for us to tell that it is real, because there has been a campaign of forced recognition that unfortunately, at the end of the day, we cannot know what is true or not without witnessing/doing/studying it firsthand.

I know this is all fringe, but what else makes sense? Sure, I get it, all humans are subject to confirmation bias etc etc., but elites have access to information we do not. Especially in politics. There is no reason for them to doubt their intelligence.

So why is the question of the validity of available information being forced upon us? Trump is an actor. This is a facade to distract us from our imminent collapse, such that it doesn't happen due to panic earlier than a natural collapse. The faster we know it for certain, the faster collapse follows. Thus, confusion and ultimately widespread ignorance/disbelief/hope is required to maintain things as they are as long as possible (until we collapse naturally)

This is a very real example of "What we believe manifests in the external world". Collectively, if we all recognized what was going on (as most here do, intimately) and believe we are doomed quite soon, it will happen almost immediately out of panic, self-fulfilling prophecy/belief. This is more of an existential danger in relation to collapse: What the majority believe is extremely important right now. Depending on how you look at it (Is it better to maintain normalcy as long as possible, or is it better to collapse now and spare the planet further damage?) the elites are being merciful by keeping us uninformed, should collapse be a near-term certainty, as it maximizes our time here (the longer we are ignorant, the less chance of panic collapse). If collapse is NOT a certainty, they are not being merciful but pure evil.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 02:43:44 PM by 5to10 »

Dave C

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2017, 02:44:25 PM »
I think that by controlling export through fram/garlic press/Bering stretch , enough ice could be saved to prolong the demise of the Arctic.

While they are presented as "simple" solutions they do not begin to address the work required.  Blocking the Fram and the channels in the CAA would without question take more resources and energy than every other major civil enterprise ever attempted, combined.


Maybe. That depends almost entirely on how strong the barrier needs to be.

You would need about a 100 mile floating cable anchored to Greenland and the Barents shelf to make a big difference in Fram outflow. It's about 1000m deep where it needs to be anchored, which is a manageable depth. We have built underseas cables a whole lot longer than 100 miles at a moderate cost.
So if the cable can be weak then this is easily achievable.

I don't have any sort of guess for how strongly ice pushes horizontally though so I can't give a real feasibility estimate.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2017, 03:02:15 PM »
. If collapse is NOT a certainty, they are not being merciful but pure evil.

And what if they wish to continue in position after the collapse? Do they force an issue to cover the environmental dangers their kind has brought into being and so leave them 'blameless' post apocalypse?

I gave up concerns over a Nuclear mishap with the fall of the USSR but the past few years have raised those fears back to their cold war levels. Would they really use a Nuke exchange to topple todays civilisation but retain enough modern technology to rebuild post 'war'? If they know the middle east is to become uninhabitable due to temps over the coming decades then why not depopulate the region ( mass refugee crisis) then nuke the region leading to the very 'panic collapse' you envisage?

They lose a portion of the planet they know is doomed and they over halve the global population...... then they use modern technologies to rebuild the globe on a low workforce/high robotic reality ......
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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5to10

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2017, 03:14:37 PM »
. If collapse is NOT a certainty, they are not being merciful but pure evil.

And what if they wish to continue in position after the collapse? Do they force an issue to cover the environmental dangers their kind has brought into being and so leave them 'blameless' post apocalypse?

I gave up concerns over a Nuclear mishap with the fall of the USSR but the past few years have raised those fears back to their cold war levels. Would they really use a Nuke exchange to topple todays civilisation but retain enough modern technology to rebuild post 'war'? If they know the middle east is to become uninhabitable due to temps over the coming decades then why not depopulate the region ( mass refugee crisis) then nuke the region leading to the very 'panic collapse' you envisage?

They lose a portion of the planet they know is doomed and they over halve the global population...... then they use modern technologies to rebuild the globe on a low workforce/high robotic reality ......

I believe that big of a collapse leads to total collapse anyways, then human extinction or near extinction, factor that into it. Global nuclear meltdown (arguably avoidable by means of planning to man all of them throughout) global dimming reduction... The only way the planets surface is habitable soon after total collapse is if gigantic chunks of scientific data are falsified, because it's quite clear what the projections are after total collapse. Immediate global warming as a result of dimming reduction is one of the first consequences. The start of the breakdown is by no means the peak.

I cannot see any scenario wherein the surface is habitable for tens, hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of years after human civilization collapses, again barring, at minimum, the majority of scientific data and modeling being falsified.

Archimid

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2017, 03:16:06 PM »

And what if they wish to continue in position after the collapse? Do they force an issue to cover the environmental dangers their kind has brought into being and so leave them 'blameless' post apocalypse?

I gave up concerns over a Nuclear mishap with the fall of the USSR but the past few years have raised those fears back to their cold war levels. Would they really use a Nuke exchange to topple todays civilisation but retain enough modern technology to rebuild post 'war'? If they know the middle east is to become uninhabitable due to temps over the coming decades then why not depopulate the region ( mass refugee crisis) then nuke the region leading to the very 'panic collapse' you envisage?

They lose a portion of the planet they know is doomed and they over halve the global population...... then they use modern technologies to rebuild the globe on a low workforce/high robotic reality ......


That is what is happening. Xenophobic protectionism. The image attached is what they have in mind.

Of course that is a very foolish way to protect themselves from global climate change. That Ark will have leaks that can only be solved in cooperation with other countries. It will sink with the rest of the world as the chosen fight with each other over scraps.

At the end there will be some  winners, but most will be losers. If you exclude life losses, then the rule will be that the ones who have the most today will lose the most. If you include life, then the ones who have the least will lose the most.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

5to10

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2017, 03:21:44 PM »

And what if they wish to continue in position after the collapse? Do they force an issue to cover the environmental dangers their kind has brought into being and so leave them 'blameless' post apocalypse?

I gave up concerns over a Nuclear mishap with the fall of the USSR but the past few years have raised those fears back to their cold war levels. Would they really use a Nuke exchange to topple todays civilisation but retain enough modern technology to rebuild post 'war'? If they know the middle east is to become uninhabitable due to temps over the coming decades then why not depopulate the region ( mass refugee crisis) then nuke the region leading to the very 'panic collapse' you envisage?

They lose a portion of the planet they know is doomed and they over halve the global population...... then they use modern technologies to rebuild the globe on a low workforce/high robotic reality ......


That is what is happening. Xenophobic protectionism. The image attached is what they have in mind.

Of course that is a very foolish way to protect themselves from global climate change. That Ark will have leaks that can only be solved in cooperation with other countries. It will sink with the rest of the world as the chosen fight with each other over scraps.

At the end there will be some  winners, but most will be losers. If you exclude life losses, then the rule will be that the ones who have the most today will lose the most. If you include life, then the ones who have the least will lose the most.


It doesn't add up at all. They know that it won't protect them. If you know it, certainly they do too with an even deeper grasp given the information available to them.

The highest possibility in my mind is that it is all pure distraction. None of it is meant to go anywhere, because it won't matter soon anyways. It's just political dick-swinging to the max as a means of distracting us, so we don't panic. Again, Trump has been a bit of a career actor for many years prior to this. He is a reality show actor. Reality shows are designed to distract, we all know how well they did that for a long time (Until they mostly became patently unrealistic and people lost interest). This is a reality show on the biggest stage in the world for the same purpose: Distract the world. Finally, a reality show we can all commit to! This time there's no denying it's reality, it's happening, right? So my GOD is it ever enthralling, because now it's really real! Is it though?

Nothing else makes sense unless you think the highest of the elite are oblivious to the coming, unavoidable, crippling effects of climate change. Unless they have some kind of insane terraforming technology that none of us can fathom or conceptualize as being possible. The black swan.

Doubt it. I don't have direct evidence of the claims that they know collapse is imminent, but based on some fair assumptions we can make (especially the access to and amount of knowledge they have vs us) I don't see any more logical hypothesis for what's happening right now.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 03:26:55 PM by 5to10 »

Archimid

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #21 on: February 26, 2017, 03:37:48 PM »

It doesn't add up at all. They know that it won't protect them. If you know it, certainly they do too with an even deeper grasp given the information available to them.


I don't think that's true. I know I am just another animal. They think they were created in an image of god. They think humans have choice, I know choice is an illusion. I know I know nothing. They think they know everything.

 
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2017, 03:39:08 PM »

And what if they wish to continue in position after the collapse? Do they force an issue to cover the environmental dangers their kind has brought into being and so leave them 'blameless' post apocalypse?

I gave up concerns over a Nuclear mishap with the fall of the USSR but the past few years have raised those fears back to their cold war levels. Would they really use a Nuke exchange to topple todays civilisation but retain enough modern technology to rebuild post 'war'? If they know the middle east is to become uninhabitable due to temps over the coming decades then why not depopulate the region ( mass refugee crisis) then nuke the region leading to the very 'panic collapse' you envisage?

They lose a portion of the planet they know is doomed and they over halve the global population...... then they use modern technologies to rebuild the globe on a low workforce/high robotic reality ......


That is what is happening. Xenophobic protectionism. The image attached is what they have in mind.

Of course that is a very foolish way to protect themselves from global climate change. That Ark will have leaks that can only be solved in cooperation with other countries. It will sink with the rest of the world as the chosen fight with each other over scraps.

At the end there will be some  winners, but most will be losers. If you exclude life losses, then the rule will be that the ones who have the most today will lose the most. If you include life, then the ones who have the least will lose the most.


It doesn't add up at all. They know that it won't protect them. If you know it, certainly they do too with an even deeper grasp given the information available to them.

The highest possibility in my mind is that it is all pure distraction. None of it is meant to go anywhere, because it won't matter soon anyways. It's just political dick-swinging to the max as a means of distracting us, so we don't panic. Again, Trump has been a bit of a career actor for many years prior to this. He is a reality show actor. Reality shows are designed to distract, we all know how well they did that for a long time (Until they mostly became patently unrealistic and people lost interest). This is a reality show on the biggest stage in the world for the same purpose: Distract the world. Finally, a reality show we can all commit to! This time there's no denying it's reality, it's happening, right? So my GOD is it ever enthralling, because now it's really real! Is it though?

Nothing else makes sense unless you think the highest of the elite are oblivious to the coming, unavoidable, crippling effects of climate change. Unless they have some kind of insane terraforming technology that none of us can fathom or conceptualize as being possible. The black swan.

Doubt it. I don't have direct evidence of the claims that they know collapse is imminent, but based on some fair assumptions we can make (especially the access to and amount of knowledge they have vs us) I don't see any more logical hypothesis for what's happening right now.

Who are these, the highest of the elite? .....
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

wili

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2017, 03:55:57 PM »
5to10, the level of effect of the loss of dimming is overstated by Guy McPherson, iirc. I don't dismiss the everything he says, but that is one place where he, at least, is assuming the highest level from a range of probability, and uses a early study that has been superseded.

But yes, loss of dimming will indeed make already bad consequences even worse. We just don't know exactly how much worse, but last I saw it was more like a half degree C rather than the two plus degrees assumed by Guy.

On the other thing, I think Arch and GW have it essentially right. Don't assume the super rich aren't also super crazy. We get a glimpse of that elite insanity watching Trump.

And you're right about distraction, but mainly to distract us from the fact the country is in the process of being robbed blind by the robber baron class. Yes, the robbery has been going on for a long time, but it's now kicking into even higher gear.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

5to10

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2017, 04:02:28 PM »

And what if they wish to continue in position after the collapse? Do they force an issue to cover the environmental dangers their kind has brought into being and so leave them 'blameless' post apocalypse?

I gave up concerns over a Nuclear mishap with the fall of the USSR but the past few years have raised those fears back to their cold war levels. Would they really use a Nuke exchange to topple todays civilisation but retain enough modern technology to rebuild post 'war'? If they know the middle east is to become uninhabitable due to temps over the coming decades then why not depopulate the region ( mass refugee crisis) then nuke the region leading to the very 'panic collapse' you envisage?

They lose a portion of the planet they know is doomed and they over halve the global population...... then they use modern technologies to rebuild the globe on a low workforce/high robotic reality ......


That is what is happening. Xenophobic protectionism. The image attached is what they have in mind.

Of course that is a very foolish way to protect themselves from global climate change. That Ark will have leaks that can only be solved in cooperation with other countries. It will sink with the rest of the world as the chosen fight with each other over scraps.

At the end there will be some  winners, but most will be losers. If you exclude life losses, then the rule will be that the ones who have the most today will lose the most. If you include life, then the ones who have the least will lose the most.


It doesn't add up at all. They know that it won't protect them. If you know it, certainly they do too with an even deeper grasp given the information available to them.

The highest possibility in my mind is that it is all pure distraction. None of it is meant to go anywhere, because it won't matter soon anyways. It's just political dick-swinging to the max as a means of distracting us, so we don't panic. Again, Trump has been a bit of a career actor for many years prior to this. He is a reality show actor. Reality shows are designed to distract, we all know how well they did that for a long time (Until they mostly became patently unrealistic and people lost interest). This is a reality show on the biggest stage in the world for the same purpose: Distract the world. Finally, a reality show we can all commit to! This time there's no denying it's reality, it's happening, right? So my GOD is it ever enthralling, because now it's really real! Is it though?

Nothing else makes sense unless you think the highest of the elite are oblivious to the coming, unavoidable, crippling effects of climate change. Unless they have some kind of insane terraforming technology that none of us can fathom or conceptualize as being possible. The black swan.

Doubt it. I don't have direct evidence of the claims that they know collapse is imminent, but based on some fair assumptions we can make (especially the access to and amount of knowledge they have vs us) I don't see any more logical hypothesis for what's happening right now.

Who are these, the highest of the elite? .....

Certainly any politician with access to the full scope of a good intelligence system. Media giants would surely have similar information pipelines. I can't "name names" and I don't intend to. If the present situation was known 30-40 yrs ago, there's just no way all the intelligence and research communities wouldn't make the American president for example fully aware of the situation from the moment it was recognized onwards. It's a completely ludicrous idea to me. Once it's known, it's known, and the ramifications pretty much ALWAYS would have been "If we release this info and make people understand it, panic and a paradigm shift will ensue and things won't go the way we are making them go anymore".

I already said I don't have direct evidence of any of this, but I challenge anyone to come up with a more rational scenario. You must factor in the amount of GOOD information upper elite portions of our society are able to receive that we don't even hear about.. that they can trust is accurate. Unless you believe some or all of them do not seek that information out, or believe it, there's no real alternative than some scenario close to this.

Remember that your disbelief that it has all been a bit of a lie for so long now, is hinged on your belief that first world politicians have never, at any point, been informed or understood that collapse was inevitable based on trajectory, when they have THE BEST intelligence you could ever hope for SPOONFED to them.

If that ever happened even once in the past 40 yrs, that it was accepted as truth by a world leader, the knowledge would be thereafter very present within this tiny upper circle of world politicians/bankers/media barons as it slowly seeped out, and they would all understand that their best option from a self-interest perspective (AND from a "everyone will panic, right now, and cause collapse immediately" perspective) is to act like they don't know anything about it.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 04:08:29 PM by 5to10 »

Pmt111500

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #25 on: February 26, 2017, 04:04:03 PM »
Who are these, the highest of the elite? .....
Shortening the quote chain. I bet they know more about stocks and monetary derivatives than about steam engines.
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5to10

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #26 on: February 26, 2017, 04:18:14 PM »
Who are these, the highest of the elite? .....
Shortening the quote chain. I bet they know more about stocks and monetary derivatives than about steam engines.

Every single one of them since Limits to Growth and even a little before? Again, given that their access to information and their ability to verify it as true within their own minds (due to sources) far exceeds the average persons? Super improbable.

I find it hilarious that so many people view the elite tier as unaware buffoons like the rest of society appears. Sure, some are, but a lot of them are way more aware than the average joe, because they have better quality information, which destroys cognitive dissonance quite often when lesser quality/less convincing info would not have.

And those people mingle with each other - not me or you - so the information on climate risk has likely been shared and widely known/believed by a good portion of them, for quite some time. Way in advance of the public, certainly. We do not have access to the knowledge some of them do, that's all there is to it. To suggest that all of them are oblivious is irrational.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 04:23:50 PM by 5to10 »

magnamentis

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #27 on: February 26, 2017, 04:24:43 PM »
Some crazy thoughts about strengthening the ice cap...  not sure if this has been proposed before, but its quite a simple...

In order to more fully take advantage of the FDDs, we need to constantly flood the top of the cap with sea water.  The right flow should all freeze with the minimum effort.   Something on the order of 1 cm top ice per FDD with a constant flow of near freezing sea water.

In this manner 5M thick ice could be produced over large area each winter.  The pumping technology should be easy....  wind power perhaps.  Not so easy maybe, given the environment, but a good challenge for the oil majors anyway.

 Flame away...   8) 8) 8)

hi,

i know exactly the motive of your post and it's very much appreciated. even though things are most often (never) as easy as they seem to be on first glance, and only to throw in my 2cts, i'm against any manmade artificial solution other than to revert or at lest stop/reduce the root cause of the problem.

history shows that whenever we attempted to correct a problem we inflicted ourselves with so called "technical solutions" the resulting new problem was greater, more difficult to control and ultimately leading to catastrophic events. and i'm not only talking climate change of course. the financial system is on heart/lung machine, the political system (democracies) is quickly heading towards revolutionary times, climate is changing with huge impacts of which we know little about the scale and the many more things are going into the wrong (or at least a bad) direction and each attempt to correct the course makes things worse.

this and other reasons ultimately lead to the collapse of each man-made system in the past, be it social, technological, cultural, economical, political, military power, empire or all of them.

the main reason for all this to happen are greed, laziness and profiling neuroses based on uncontrolled egos and no other solution or workaround will avoid such things to happen but mankind starting to hold their lower instincts and interests in check.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #28 on: February 26, 2017, 04:34:09 PM »
Who are these, the highest of the elite? .....
Shortening the quote chain. I bet they know more about stocks and monetary derivatives than about steam engines.
Exactly correct.  Too many here seem to characterize "the elite" as an amorphous or monolithic force.  They're a collection of individuals, very diverse.  They individually rise to the top of their particular realms by a single-minded focus on achievement in their fields.  Very few understand basic physics, let alone climate science.

Those in political power have a variable appreciation of intelligence.  And intelligence services have a variable interest in modeling socioeconomic consequences of climate change.  If folks have been reading the thread "conservative science and its consequences" you'll appreciate that some of the most authoritative science out there routinely errs on the side of least drama--a great phrase used by AbruptSLR.  Reading the science material most intelligence services would rely on, they wouldn't be telling their leaders that global socioeconomic collapse in a few decades is a plausible scenario.

By and large, I believe "the elite" are as clueless here as the typical viewer of Fox News.

5to10

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #29 on: February 26, 2017, 04:51:09 PM »
Who are these, the highest of the elite? .....
Shortening the quote chain. I bet they know more about stocks and monetary derivatives than about steam engines.
Exactly correct.  Too many here seem to characterize "the elite" as an amorphous or monolithic force.  They're a collection of individuals, very diverse.  They individually rise to the top of their particular realms by a single-minded focus on achievement in their fields.  Very few understand basic physics, let alone climate science.

Those in political power have a variable appreciation of intelligence.  And intelligence services have a variable interest in modeling socioeconomic consequences of climate change.  If folks have been reading the thread "conservative science and its consequences" you'll appreciate that some of the most authoritative science out there routinely errs on the side of least drama--a great phrase used by AbruptSLR.  Reading the science material most intelligence services would rely on, they wouldn't be telling their leaders that global socioeconomic collapse in a few decades is a plausible scenario.

By and large, I believe "the elite" are as clueless here as the typical viewer of Fox News.

I don't view them as a "force". I view them as having access to an information bank that we do not. The reports they receive are different than the reports the public receives. The IPCC for example would have been told "Make it conservative" when their findings were likely very different.

Hiding the truth of climate change is profitable. Hiding the truth of cilmate change prevents panic. Hiding the truth of climate change allows you to continue directing the focus of humanity, rather than have humanity direct YOUR focus.

It is simply ludicrous in my mind to postulate that they are, on average, as or less informed and thus aware than the average individual when they logically have access to and are given better information. It makes no sense at all, and I ask how you get around that statement. You are basically saying the pinnacle of human intelligence entities are about as good as a dude with an internet connection and a vast assortment of disconnected papers that detail individual climate risks, some scientific think tank predictions.

Intelligence agencies, think tanks, R&D, etc... We don't have those, we have the internet, or maybe all the studies from a university and our own research. They have nigh unlimited resources and time to pay smarter people to put all that shit together for them and give them the most likely predictions, or data based on events. You're telling me they pay for all that and then ignore all the results when their pocketbooks or influence is at stake? That's a good one.

You are not giving at least SOME portion of powerful people enough credit mentally.

You can't begin to tell me that the Bush and Clinton families couldn't be aware, for example, and their history as huge figures in American politics is a pretty long one.

What you are suggesting is just plain unlikely.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 04:57:54 PM by 5to10 »

Cid_Yama

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #30 on: February 26, 2017, 05:04:46 PM »
If the world is going to end on Tuesday, they want you showing up for work Monday morning.  Simple as that.

The average IQ is 100 regardless of social-economic status.  That is why we are witnessing Idiocracy vs Armageddon.

Maybe we could pump Brawndo onto the ice.  It has electrolytes.

SteveMDFP

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #31 on: February 26, 2017, 05:06:29 PM »
Who are these, the highest of the elite? .....
Shortening the quote chain. I bet they know more about stocks and monetary derivatives than about steam engines.
Exactly correct.  Too many here seem to characterize "the elite" as an amorphous or monolithic force.  They're a collection of individuals, very diverse.  They individually rise to the top of their particular realms by a single-minded focus on achievement in their fields.  Very few understand basic physics, let alone climate science.

Those in political power have a variable appreciation of intelligence.  And intelligence services have a variable interest in modeling socioeconomic consequences of climate change.  If folks have been reading the thread "conservative science and its consequences" you'll appreciate that some of the most authoritative science out there routinely errs on the side of least drama--a great phrase used by AbruptSLR.  Reading the science material most intelligence services would rely on, they wouldn't be telling their leaders that global socioeconomic collapse in a few decades is a plausible scenario.

By and large, I believe "the elite" are as clueless here as the typical viewer of Fox News.

I don't view them as a "force". I view them as having access to an information bank that we do not. The reports they receive are different than the reports the public receives. The IPCC for example would have been told "Make it conservative" when their findings were likely very different.

Hiding the truth of climate change is profitable. Hiding the truth of cilmate change prevents panic. Hiding the truth of climate change allows you to continue directing the focus of humanity, rather than have humanity direct YOUR focus.

It is simply ludicrous in my mind to postulate that they are, on average, as or less informed and thus aware than the average individual when they logically have access to and are given better information. It makes no sense at all, and I ask how you get around that statement.

Intelligence agencies, think tanks, R&D, etc... We don't have those, we have the internet, or maybe all the studies from a university and our own research. They have nigh unlimited resources and time to pay smarter people to put all that shit together for them and give them the most likely predictions, or data based on events. You're telling me they pay for all that and then ignore all the results when their pocketbooks or influence is at stake? That's a good one.

You are not giving at least SOME portion of powerful people enough credit mentally.

You can't begin to tell me that the Bush and Clinton families couldn't be aware, for example, and their history as huge figures in American politics is a pretty long one.

What you are suggesting is just plain unlikely.

I think it's quite variable, depending on which paticular elite individual you're thinking about.  I'm fairly confident that the US DoD and CIA have a reasonably good grasp of future possibilities.  I think Obama paid attention, and thus stated that climate change is the greatest single risk to global security.  But Trump, as a counter-example, refuses to meet with such experts, and doesn't believe them, and has no patience with long briefing papers.

For example, the DoD has decades of detailed, precise arctic sea ice data, courtesy of nuclear subs continuously in the arctic since the 1950s.  The DoD has been notably active in focusing on developing a climate-resilient force.  But the underlying data and analysis is classified.  Its there for the President and member of the Congressional Intelligence committees, and nobody else.

All other "elites" have, at best, only the available science that errs on the side of least drama.  Most aren't interested in anything that happens after the next election, or next corporate quarterly repot, or after they enter retirement.  They know that the only other thing that matters to them, their own families, can be best protected by amassing wealth.  They don't have time for any other concerns, nor much interest, nor much comprehension.

5to10

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #32 on: February 26, 2017, 05:13:26 PM »
I think it's quite variable, depending on which paticular elite individual you're thinking about.  I'm fairly confident that the US DoD and CIA have a reasonably good grasp of future possibilities.  I think Obama paid attention, and thus stated that climate change is the greatest single risk to global security.  But Trump, as a counter-example, refuses to meet with such experts, and doesn't believe them, and has no patience with long briefing papers.

For example, the DoD has decades of detailed, precise arctic sea ice data, courtesy of nuclear subs continuously in the arctic since the 1950s.  The DoD has been notably active in focusing on developing a climate-resilient force.  But the underlying data and analysis is classified.  Its there for the President and member of the Congressional Intelligence committees, and nobody else.

All other "elites" have, at best, only the available science that errs on the side of least drama.  Most aren't interested in anything that happens after the next election, or next corporate quarterly repot, or after they enter retirement.  They know that the only other thing that matters to them, their own families, can be best protected by amassing wealth.  They don't have time for any other concerns, nor much interest, nor much comprehension.

Yes, but in the context of my suggestion (Important sects of the elite tier have known about this for a long time. Trump knew before running and still knows we have no salvation and imminent collapse [between now and 20-30 yrs] is coming, and that he is the gigantic distraction required at the moment to get peoples attention off the natural world, as it becomes more obviously frightening) then it doesn't matter whether or not Trump goes to meet with said agencies etc. All of that news is irrelevant and part of the distraction. Every boorish, outlandish, incomprehensible statement he says is part of the distraction.

You can no longer take any of his actions at face value, but must view all of them as individual parts of the purpose: extremely effective, world attention-grabbing distraction from the coming fright of the natural world collapsing around us.

Again, if everyone ACTUALLY realized today that we're screwed soon, the collapse just happens right away out of panic.

Whether or not any of this is true, and I realize I can't produce evidence here, it is all more than plausible at the very least. In fact all of the ideas I'm sharing here fit together to compile a very sensible hypothesis of what's been going on behind the scenes for many years perhaps: They've known about this for a long time and have been distracting/keeping us ignorant as long as possible either out of self-interest, or to save us from ourselves, or some combination of both.

Regardless of all other goings-on, the knowledge that the world is going to collapse someday, possibly (or now probably) within your lifetime will certainly be a big motivator behind your actions. And if they understood it, I have to believe they came to the same conclusion: Letting the cat out of the bag may cause immediate collapse.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 05:20:00 PM by 5to10 »

Jim Williams

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #33 on: February 26, 2017, 05:36:25 PM »
Very nice Cid, and very true.
The future was ours, and be blew it.



Terry

I'm sorry to have to yawn on your parade, but the rate of computer hardware development is outstripping climate change.  Mankind will not even notice when Homo Sapiens becomes extinct.

epiphyte

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #34 on: February 26, 2017, 05:38:28 PM »
Whether or not any of this is true, and I realize I can't produce evidence here, it is all more than plausible at the very least. In fact all of the ideas I'm sharing here fit together to compile a very sensible hypothesis of what's been going on behind the scenes for many years perhaps: They've known about this for a long time and have been distracting/keeping us ignorant as long as possible either out of self-interest, or to save us from ourselves, or some combination of both.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to Malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

5to10

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #35 on: February 26, 2017, 06:07:56 PM »
Whether or not any of this is true, and I realize I can't produce evidence here, it is all more than plausible at the very least. In fact all of the ideas I'm sharing here fit together to compile a very sensible hypothesis of what's been going on behind the scenes for many years perhaps: They've known about this for a long time and have been distracting/keeping us ignorant as long as possible either out of self-interest, or to save us from ourselves, or some combination of both.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to Malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

Yes well, here's 5to10's Razor: Never assume philosophical principles such as Hanlon's Razor are accurate for every scenario.

Plus, again, stupidity is not a likely proposition when they have more direct access to better information and their livelihoods, businesses or political power are more reliant on such things.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #36 on: February 26, 2017, 06:37:00 PM »
[
I find it hilarious that so many people view the elite tier as unaware buffoons like the rest of society appears. Sure, some are, but a lot of them are way more aware than the average joe, because they have better quality information, which destroys cognitive dissonance quite often when lesser quality/less convincing info would not have.


Who funded 'Denial'? Why would they have any issue with what is occurring/about to occur?

They had information decades ago that ,even today, we argue about. How do they look at such data? Does it serve them to plan for the best or prepare for the worst? Leave nothing to chance I think?

Something here approaches.....

https://youtu.be/IWm03wYBTbM
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 06:51:09 PM by Gray-Wolf »
KOYAANISQATSI

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5to10

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #37 on: February 26, 2017, 06:57:08 PM »

Gray-Wolf

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #38 on: February 26, 2017, 07:07:08 PM »
We used to have a poster here. They posted volumes of stuff, they searched the planet for anything new and they made Sat images easier to interpret....... they're gone now.....

We got that for free. Just think of what you could have with 3 or 5 such 'helpers' , well rewarded for their time, keeping you 'current'. Even those blessed with an IQ of 100 can be shown what is/will be important?

We heard talk of 'peak oil' back in the 60's, nobody hid that from humanity so why was that something we could bare to hear and yet AGW has been fought over tooth and claw with every direction of the global thermometer something for intense debate.

Peak oil figures were revised ad infinitum but global measures of change? Ant upgrade of the quality of data has been fought over in an apparent 'need' for the more dated data to be the accepted one?

Why?

You do not need a lot of 'Nouse' to be told what is going on and if you wield power then it is equally not as hard to promote a direction that directly favours you?

Something unseen come this way............ but some have seen a glimpse and laid plans accordingly.....
KOYAANISQATSI

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Gray-Wolf

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #39 on: February 26, 2017, 07:09:25 PM »
https://youtu.be/VvQ2FUwvcqw

We have the Bullingdon Club........ you the Skull and Bones?

Since that speech 'conspiracy' has become a dirty word, the place where whakos are to be found.....
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 07:16:19 PM by Gray-Wolf »
KOYAANISQATSI

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dnem

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #40 on: February 26, 2017, 07:22:32 PM »
Wow, pretty remarkable where an open thread on ASIF leads these days!  5to10, I think you are overselling your point pretty hard.  Yes, I agree that most of the - lets call it the "global corporate hegemony" - know or at least fear the game is lost.  I think there is still a strong element that clings to the belief that a techno-fix will bail us out, up to and including geoengineering.

I don't think "they" are operating on any expectation that fear of collapse is going to sweep the population and precipitate said collapse.  I think they just want to keep the machine cranking as long and as best they can and ride it as far as it can go.  I think Arch is exactly correct and if I had to summarize the Trump agenda it is "get rid of as many brown people as possible, prevent any more from getting here, disenfranchise those that remain, roll up the drawbridges and make the best go of it for the well-off whites as we can."  I think they look out at the world and see growing climate chaos, state failure and mass migration.  They want to stay as detached from it as possible.  Wall us off from any northbound migration and what, Canada is going to stop us from migrating our bread basket north if we have to?

All-in-all I think the global economy is probably less stable than the biosphere.  If the economy does "collapse" yes the reduction of dimming will add some forcing, but a reduction of CO2 forcing will also occur as economic activity drops off.  Humans are weedy and adaptable and will colonize available livable habitats.  The only extinction level event I can possibly foresee is if 400+ reactors meltdown at once, perhaps because of a Carrington-type event (or nuclear war, but I see that as very low probability).

If I had to bet, this process will take decades.  I often tell friends and acquaintances that are dubious that the human endeavor is headed for collapse to meet me for lunch in 2030.  If they haven't come over to my side by then, lunch is on me.

DrTskoul

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #41 on: February 26, 2017, 07:42:26 PM »
Whether or not any of this is true, and I realize I can't produce evidence here, it is all more than plausible at the very least. In fact all of the ideas I'm sharing here fit together to compile a very sensible hypothesis of what's been going on behind the scenes for many years perhaps: They've known about this for a long time and have been distracting/keeping us ignorant as long as possible either out of self-interest, or to save us from ourselves, or some combination of both.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to Malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

Hear, hear...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Gray-Wolf

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #42 on: February 26, 2017, 07:45:40 PM »
Well I'm happy to report 5to10 is speaking my truth!

I cannot but feel I am missing a piece of the puzzle and , after long years of pondering, I have to believe that piece is being withheld ?

do I trust the world?

Nope. I was brung up to question everything and a.t.m. I'm sure I'm missing a piece!

Things ain't normal?

Too many things are appearing out of skew but then? is this what they want me to see?

Yup!, we share the world with folk dimmer than us and with those so bright we'd need blink who chose to close their eyes....... could you, given the funds and motivation, blind the planet to the truth, or at least leave it squabbling?
KOYAANISQATSI

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oren

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #43 on: February 26, 2017, 07:51:04 PM »
dnem, thanks for summarizing what I feel so well.
About the panic part, many people I know either say "yeah yeah heard it all before" as they fail to grasp long term processes, or they understand the problem and feel powerless to do anything about it. But everyone keeps going at their daily lives with no panic even on the horizon, regardless of what the suppposed elite might or might not tell anyone. The media is full of warnings about the future, most are bs but some are very real, people have become accustomed and grown numb. Panic will only happen when daily life is stronly disrupted. For global panic this has to happen in many locations at once. It will, but I agree it' s a long process (luckily I guess).

Jim Williams

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #44 on: February 26, 2017, 08:08:53 PM »
Who funded 'Denial'? Why would they have any issue with what is occurring/about to occur?

Tr:  Follow the Money

5to10

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #45 on: February 26, 2017, 08:14:43 PM »
For global panic this has to happen in many locations at once. It will, but I agree it' s a long process (luckily I guess).

Correct - so disenfranchising the news and thus available information in general is a wise decision to make NOW, in order to manage public perception later when national and global events start happening that cannot go unignored. "They're not collapsing over there, these things happen. Superstorms happen. Famine happens. Drought happens. Earth changes. Economic meltdowns happen. This is not part of a greater event."

I.e. "CNN has received word that the superstorm is a result of a climate state that will continue to worsen drastically as a result of positive feedbacks..."

"Fake news"

Now imagine if ignorance WASN'T being cultivated... A lot of the people who will now be fooled may have taken heed of the news, leading to panic, leading to probable near term collapse/pitchfork wielding mobs.

Will CNN even exist as it does in a year or two? Will any of the so-called "Fake news"? Will it be an authoritarian regime which controls news and controls INFORMATION even further (internet regulation?) and thus a hefty portion of public perception?

I don't see how this is reaching as someone else said. Any assumptions being made are rational and plausible, everything fits together to make a perfectly rational picture of what could be going on outside of our view.

Certainly other than "Well, 'common sense' and all these philosophical principles suggest you're wrong" and "They might get better information but they probably don't accept it", there ain't much for a rebuttal.

As our situation is so unbelievable that it surpasses the greatest thriller movie you could ever hope to watch or conceive, perhaps there are many unbelievable aspects. Surely there are at least some we are oblivious to.

If JFK's outright and blatant DISCLOSURE that there were secret societies running the world in the 60's, followed by his assassination weeks later doesn't strike you as strange in the context of present events and everything else I'm explaining, nothing I can say on this subject will change your mind.

Though this all seems tangential or existential, if we are truly serious about hoping to start any kind of positive change and not just giving up entirely, then this is very relevant and important, as is what newsmedia is choosing to report.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 08:23:24 PM by 5to10 »

Bernard

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #46 on: February 26, 2017, 08:37:57 PM »
This kind of discussion pushes me to come out of lurker mode.

For me, the answer is simple. As any form of life, we are overly optimistic, fighting daily to survive, with no consideration for the future, either short, middle or long term. I live in mountains where trees and other living things grow and thrive in places where no one would have given a damn of their bare survival. This blind optimism of life made it successful across billions of years and so many local and global catastrophes. So we are, at the bottom of ourselves, confident. We keep having children, although we pretty well know there are way too many of them on this planet. But what else? Surrender? Life never surrenders. Full stop.

oren

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #47 on: February 26, 2017, 08:58:38 PM »
Well sais. My colleague at work, anice and intelligent person who studied for a phd in physics has just had hia fourth kid. This of course drives me nuts. He agrees with me that the world is going to hell, and is even now reading Hansen's book "Storms of my grandchildren" at my urging. And still he remains the most calm person, shrugging off all real worries about the future. Psychologically he is better off I guess, and most  life have this as survival trait.

5to10

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #48 on: February 26, 2017, 09:16:27 PM »
This kind of discussion pushes me to come out of lurker mode.

For me, the answer is simple. As any form of life, we are overly optimistic, fighting daily to survive, with no consideration for the future, either short, middle or long term. I live in mountains where trees and other living things grow and thrive in places where no one would have given a damn of their bare survival. This blind optimism of life made it successful across billions of years and so many local and global catastrophes. So we are, at the bottom of ourselves, confident. We keep having children, although we pretty well know there are way too many of them on this planet. But what else? Surrender? Life never surrenders. Full stop.

I agree wholeheartedly, and that is a great read. I must also believe that not trying by all and any means necessary to the bitter end is tantamount to bleeding to death outside a hospital door and waiting for someone else to carry you in, when there is nobody else to do so but yourself, with your last bit of strength. Perhaps you will die of the bleeding anyways in surgery, but giving up entirely is irrational if you value anything at all in this beautiful natural world, that doesn't just have to include yourself and other people (in their low state of awareness.. which can always go up..).

Perhaps we have scarred it beyond recognition. But perhaps with a united humanity that somehow, some impossible way got through this unbelievable crisis, we could continue to work towards a better future not just for ourselves, but for the natural world we live in.

What is the use in giving up? Either you give up, or you do everything you can think of right now lest you accept that you have in fact given up. If not for yourself, for your children and grandchildren, then for any fleeting chance the natural world has left.

I understand that the further we do damage, the worse chances for life to restart here become. But we already have such a complex, amazing world that is worth trying to save. It is a very difficult question of individual values at the end of the day.

I appreciate all of you here for your information, discussion, your passion and your little flame of hope that must exist somewhere. I wish all of you the best no matter how things progress. I'm not sure whether it's sadness, or the chaotic, inconceivable but horrifying beauty of it that is bringing tears to my eyes, but there they are. This is our story, our stories, no matter how you look at it, no matter if it is a horror story or not. Could we even help it?
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 09:34:46 PM by 5to10 »

magnamentis

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Re: 2017 open thread
« Reply #49 on: February 26, 2017, 10:00:06 PM »
This kind of discussion pushes me to come out of lurker mode.

For me, the answer is simple. As any form of life, we are overly optimistic, fighting daily to survive, with no consideration for the future, either short, middle or long term. I live in mountains where trees and other living things grow and thrive in places where no one would have given a damn of their bare survival. This blind optimism of life made it successful across billions of years and so many local and global catastrophes. So we are, at the bottom of ourselves, confident. We keep having children, although we pretty well know there are way too many of them on this planet. But what else? Surrender? Life never surrenders. Full stop.

a great "standalone" statement and i love the fact that this triggered a post from you, no sarcasm, i honestly mean it just to make that clear.

as to your point, as i said, as it stands i like it but to discuss that to to bottom of all things it would make the ancient library of alexandria look tiny.

this kind of thoughts only can come to Fruitition if the reader is willing and/or able to see behind it and think the rest.

however, not easy to find the right words but this kind of statement can at times make my day, "thumbup"
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