5to10, I think you are under-appreciating the power of the polar winter. The ice does not cool the air and water during the winter. When the sun goes down, the long polar night sucks the energy to space and cools everything, generating ice. Yes, storms and open water can delay refreeze, but not for 6 long months. This year we had a delay of about one month in the peripheral seas, and basically no delay at all in the central CAB itself. Should we get an almost total melt-out, I expect the refreeze delay to reach maybe 2-3 months, but it can't last the whole winter.
The normal temps in midwinter are around -30oC. It takes around -10oC to freeze relatively calm and relatively fresh open ocean water. Storms could cause a lot of turbulence and mixing. And open water venting heat could cause an added anomaly of let's say +10oC. But in a long winter there will come a calm cold day that will manage to generate an initial ice layer, which will then serve as a basis for calming the sea and generating more ice.
After such a winter, you might even still get a maximum ice extent similar to recent years. Many regions of the arctic currently stay at their max extent for 4 months or more. Even a shorter freezing season may bring them to the same extent at some point. But volume will be much lower, and the next summer even more prone to total and early melt-out. After some years like that I can't say what is going to happen, but I suggest not to get carried away with short term expectations.