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Author Topic: Ice-free Arctic  (Read 13371 times)

ritter

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #50 on: February 22, 2017, 10:11:37 PM »
Should I rename this thread to People-free Planet?  ;)

Man, I would love to have a more optimistic perspective, but optimism is not realism.

Personally, if I'm being irrational in my perspective, I want to know so that I can think rationally about it instead. I have not come across much of any realistic, optimistic information that discredits at the very least a near term partial collapse of civilization scenario, which has immediate effects on dimming, which will just continue to snowball...

Ice-free arctic seems like the first in a series of rapid, extreme incoming global changes. This cannot be good.

It's hard to get a clear reading on the tea leaves these days. Your concern is understandable and I share it, rational or not. I think most of us are well aware that we are in uncharted territory with the sheer number of humans and the changes we've wrought on the environment. There are a great many converging "threat multipliers" out there.

Science is working the problem but tends to be behind the pace of events. Not the fault of scientists, just the nature of the rate of change and the rate of science. None of us know what is going to happen or when. So, don't forget to live life--it's the only one we get.  Whether it ends tomorrow or in 90 years is no more certain today than it ever has been.

Tony Mcleod

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #51 on: February 22, 2017, 10:49:29 PM »
Argh. This thread is getting a bit frustrating. Can we start posting some science in here? I mean, speculation is fine, so long as it is presented as just that -- speculation.

By the way, are we talking JUST about ice free in the summer or ice free all year-round (before I start posting literature)? Or both?

Well, the intention was merely to re-frame the "ice-free" summer = <1msqkm meme with one that was less likely to provide ammo for deniers. But I am finding the subsequent conversation interesting. I hope it doesn't veer to far into unsubstantial speculation.

My take is that modern 'western' humans live within such a complex, fragile, interlinked system that it won't take much at all to disrupt. There are innumerable catalysts to set collapse moving. It could be a Tokyo earthquake or a bomb going off in Tel Aviv or someone sneezing in Hong Kong... Abrubt climate change will probably be a bit like kicking a bloke while he's down.

But it's not something I lose sleep over. Do the least harm I can and be happy. All species go extinct.

Perhaps I should have named the thread: Credible "Ice-free" Arctic meme

Csnavywx

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #52 on: February 22, 2017, 11:46:44 PM »
The problem with trying to re-frame the problem around the deniers is that you end up catering to them. It's one thing to be conservative and allow criticism to help, it's quite another to let the tail wag the entire dog. In this case, they'll just move the goalposts and mock something else once <1 M km^2 is reached.

The key to engaging is to ask what it would take to convince them that AGW is real. Ask them what would falsify their personal position and ask them to be specific. Make them stake it out, because if you don't, they'll set up a treadmill of "well what about..." and drag it into the weeds. You can tell if someone is open to being challenged pretty much right away using this method. Don't waste your time if they aren't willing to even do that, because a non-falsifiable position is by default either opinion, speculation or faith-based. It automatically can't be scientific.

In regards to making the ice-free label more specific, one would need to figure out a way of doing that objectively. We know there's going to be some melt-resistant ice that hugs the coast up there in the coastal areas of the CAA and Greenland. The trick is trying to quantify that and forecast when that sliver disappears.

Beyond that, I think modeling SSTs in the peripheral seas and continuing work on atmospheric circulation changes is more warranted. There's quite a difference between 0C open water and 10C open water, for instance, when it comes to clouds, precip and convection.

Martin Gisser

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #53 on: February 23, 2017, 03:02:08 AM »
Should I rename this thread to People-free Planet?  ;)
Maybe "Ice-free Arctic & People-free Planet"...

Just came across another "near term climate catastrophe" video, where ice-free Arctic is the starting point. Guy McPherson declares: "I think we're headed for at least 8.7°C temperature rise within the next decade". (Wrrrrr... it was more fun watching Lord Monckton proudly proclaim his denier nonsense...)

Here's an alternative scenario. Dunno how scientifically sound it is.
Ice-free Arctic will change northern hemisphere circulation in a way that actually benefits agriculture. Except for more superstorms and yearly 1000y floods somewhere. Yet the Mediterranean will not dry out. The Sahara will shrink. The Great Green Wall of Africa reforestation project will provide jobs and food for millions.
Why is the earth silent at this destruction? (Martin Heidegger ca. 1937)

5to10

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #54 on: February 23, 2017, 04:08:40 AM »
Should I rename this thread to People-free Planet?  ;)
Maybe "Ice-free Arctic & People-free Planet"...

Just came across another "near term climate catastrophe" video, where ice-free Arctic is the starting point. Guy McPherson declares: "I think we're headed for at least 8.7°C temperature rise within the next decade". (Wrrrrr... it was more fun watching Lord Monckton proudly proclaim his denier nonsense...)

Here's an alternative scenario. Dunno how scientifically sound it is.
Ice-free Arctic will change northern hemisphere circulation in a way that actually benefits agriculture. Except for more superstorms and yearly 1000y floods somewhere. Yet the Mediterranean will not dry out. The Sahara will shrink. The Great Green Wall of Africa reforestation project will provide jobs and food for millions.

Ice core samples indicate that earth has experienced a period of 1c warming as well as 5-10c warming *per year* in the past. It is not impossible. Anthropogenic climate change is moving things along faster than any other time we know of. I'm not sure why it seems so outlandish when evidence shows things are warming up and there seem to be positive feedbacks stacking more and more as time progresses..

Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #55 on: February 23, 2017, 04:24:51 AM »
5to10

Got a reference for that claim about rate of warming?

5to10

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #56 on: February 23, 2017, 04:34:33 AM »
5to10

Got a reference for that claim about rate of warming?

I didn't delve into it much further, but this video explains the warming periods.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siWCXOypJh4&t=1s

Martin Gisser

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #57 on: February 23, 2017, 04:43:08 AM »
Yes, such rapid changes happened. They were local. I don't think that circulation changes from ice-free Arctic could do that now. There was more going on when the huge ice shield dissolved at the last deglaciation, with huge meltwater lakes suddenly gushing into the ocean:
Lake Agassiz's major drainage reorganization events were of such magnitudes that they had significant impact on climate, sea level and possibly early human civilization. Major freshwater release into the Arctic Ocean is considered to disrupt oceanic circulation and cause temporary cooling. The draining of 13,000 years ago may be the cause of the Younger Dryas stadial.[1][8][9] The draining at 9,900–10,000 years ago may be the cause of the 8,200 yr climate event.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Agassiz
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5to10

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #58 on: February 23, 2017, 05:19:29 AM »
Yes, such rapid changes happened. They were local. I don't think that circulation changes from ice-free Arctic could do that now. There was more going on when the huge ice shield dissolved at the last deglaciation, with huge meltwater lakes suddenly gushing into the ocean:
Lake Agassiz's major drainage reorganization events were of such magnitudes that they had significant impact on climate, sea level and possibly early human civilization. Major freshwater release into the Arctic Ocean is considered to disrupt oceanic circulation and cause temporary cooling. The draining of 13,000 years ago may be the cause of the Younger Dryas stadial.[1][8][9] The draining at 9,900–10,000 years ago may be the cause of the 8,200 yr climate event.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Agassiz

All he is suggesting is that abrupt climate changes can and have occurred, and are occurring right now, is he not?

There may have been "more going on" then in terms of the root causes of that particular chaotic warming/cooling cycle. But we're not dealing with the same root of a potential abrupt change. Different scenario now.

I mean, the arctic is not going to cause the same type of rapid change. But just considering albedos alone and how quickly that could change ocean temps... Hell, the temperature inversion thread.. How can you say it won't cause SOME TYPE of rapid change? Civilization is built on a very precarious tightrope. If things change too much, too quickly, large parts of it will break down soon after. Losing essentially all of the ice in the arctic and exposing a dark ocean may be a massive global change that ends up being too much, too quick. It's not an unreasonable statement. We just have to wait and see.

Nobody can accurately model or predict what is to come.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2017, 05:27:22 AM by 5to10 »

Pmt111500

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #59 on: February 23, 2017, 07:12:48 AM »
Re:People-free Planet : Imho there's not much point in talking of this here until it happens, if that sounds like a contradiction it is. Just recently saw a documentary in which a guy (checked: Levison Wood) walked most of the lenght of the Nile. On the way he met an ex-military who was happy to have a farm in the middle of a mine field in South Sudan (which could use a better name) after a more intense period of civil war. Said it keeps the intruders mostly out.

Re:Ice-free Arctic is too long to write on the phone.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2017, 07:38:42 AM by Pmt111500 »
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DoomInTheUK

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #60 on: February 23, 2017, 09:46:07 AM »
.... alternative scenario. Dunno how scientifically sound it is.
Ice-free Arctic will change northern hemisphere circulation in a way that actually benefits agriculture. Except for more superstorms and yearly 1000y floods somewhere. Yet the Mediterranean will not dry out. The Sahara will shrink. The Great Green Wall of Africa reforestation project will provide jobs and food for millions.

As a betting man, my money would be against it. The old Arctic provided a stabilising influence to the climate. Jet streams might have wandered a little but on average they were in their usual places.
Agriculture depends on this stability for the growing season.

This "new and improved" Arctic (now with added storms and upto 95% ice free) will allow much more variation. Yes some years may be better, but some will be worse. I'd say on average it'll be worse. Those stable jet streams year after year really do help keep the food on your plate.

5to10

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #61 on: February 23, 2017, 09:52:09 AM »
.... alternative scenario. Dunno how scientifically sound it is.
Ice-free Arctic will change northern hemisphere circulation in a way that actually benefits agriculture. Except for more superstorms and yearly 1000y floods somewhere. Yet the Mediterranean will not dry out. The Sahara will shrink. The Great Green Wall of Africa reforestation project will provide jobs and food for millions.

As a betting man, my money would be against it. The old Arctic provided a stabilising influence to the climate. Jet streams might have wandered a little but on average they were in their usual places.
Agriculture depends on this stability for the growing season.

This "new and improved" Arctic (now with added storms and upto 95% ice free) will allow much more variation. Yes some years may be better, but some will be worse. I'd say on average it'll be worse. Those stable jet streams year after year really do help keep the food on your plate.

.... alternative scenario. Dunno how scientifically sound it is.
Ice-free Arctic will change northern hemisphere circulation in a way that actually benefits agriculture. Except for more superstorms and yearly 1000y floods somewhere. Yet the Mediterranean will not dry out. The Sahara will shrink. The Great Green Wall of Africa reforestation project will provide jobs and food for millions.

As a betting man, my money would be against it. The old Arctic provided a stabilising influence to the climate. Jet streams might have wandered a little but on average they were in their usual places.
Agriculture depends on this stability for the growing season.

This "new and improved" Arctic (now with added storms and upto 95% ice free) will allow much more variation. Yes some years may be better, but some will be worse. I'd say on average it'll be worse. Those stable jet streams year after year really do help keep the food on your plate.

I think it will be worse far more often, and soon. Look at Cali right now. There will be even more excess water vapour as a result of an ice free arctic, in conjunction with unstable jet streams, this is a volatile combo.

Archimid

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #62 on: February 23, 2017, 11:56:22 AM »

Here's an alternative scenario. Dunno how scientifically sound it is.

I think your scenario is extremely unlikely, unless there is some magical force that makes species magically adapt and magically changes human infrastructure to thrive under new climatic parameters. The default for natural behavior is that when there are large sudden changes in the climate, mass extinction ensues.


Ice-free Arctic will change northern hemisphere circulation in a way that actually benefits agriculture. Except for more superstorms and yearly 1000y floods somewhere
.

The superstorms and 1000 year floods are already happening and we still have an arctic within 3SD of historic values. They will only get worse. As far as agriculture, I'm sure some areas will become more crop friendly, but current infrastructure will be stressed by the changes and some of it will be completely destroyed.

It is absolute madness to think agriculture will not be disrupted. It is not only  floods, droughts, heatwaves and irregular seasonality. New diseases will crop up and old diseases will move north.  Only a 10-15 percent reduction in global crops will be enough to send many countries spiraling out of control. I bet the disruptions will be larger than that.

Yet the Mediterranean will not dry out. The Sahara will shrink.

The Mediterranean will not dry out, but many water reservoirs will as glacials melt and  snow cover disappears earlier and earlier drying streams and lakes.

The Sahara might shrink, but other deserts might expand and entirely new deserts created. Infrastructure in the Sahara that's dependent on certain dryness will be overwhelmed. People perfectly adapted to the desert will lose their livelihood.

The Great Green Wall of Africa reforestation project will provide jobs and food for millions.

??? That's just a pipe dream.  Current geopolitics indicate the complete opposite to that.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

wili

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #63 on: February 23, 2017, 12:18:50 PM »
Archemid, don't be such a pessimist. Look how wonderfully things are turning out for the good people of South Sudan, after all!  :) :-[ >:(

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/20/africa/south-sudan-famine/
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gerontocrat

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #64 on: February 23, 2017, 01:27:39 PM »
South Sudan is mostly a man-made famine - totally cynical behaviour by local rival politicians.

But as with Syria and Yemen, demonstrates what happens when man's greed and fear fueled by stupidity compounds natural events.

If you want to scare yourself into a dystopian view of the future try spending some time studying chaos theory.  Perhaps an acceleration in sea ice decline leading greatly enhanced insolation leading to dramatic climate change could be a trigger.

But this stuff belongs in consequences. Is not this thread about defining ice free and some evidence-based speculation about when ?

Pmt111500

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #65 on: February 23, 2017, 01:31:54 PM »
(re:south sudan) Yes, I'd imagine in such situation having a farm on a mine field would be quite ok.

To distract from impending doom that's going to kill us all by nukes, here's some science touching this arctic sea ice issue, a japanese study few years back (2011) modelling the circulation of the warm phase of pliocene (3Ma - mega-annum ago). Some of this looks quite a lot like what we're seeing on the most extreme anomalies currently. Of course the big thing missing from Pliocene is the Greenland Ice Sheet, so it would be going next if we keep this thing up. Note also the warming of the southern ocean, still the Antarctica keeps cold, but of course some of wais would be gone.
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Hefaistos

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #66 on: February 23, 2017, 01:58:55 PM »
I think it will be worse far more often, and soon. Look at Cali right now. There will be even more excess water vapour as a result of an ice free arctic, in conjunction with unstable jet streams, this is a volatile combo.

This is an interesting topic!
I really don't understand how less ice in the Arctic creates floods in CA, would appreciate if you could please explain the mechanism! In what way was the jet stream conducive to bring about the atmosperic river that hit CA?

Archimid

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #67 on: February 23, 2017, 02:46:33 PM »
Thanks for moving this thread here Neven. As always, good call.


This is an interesting topic!
I really don't understand how less ice in the Arctic creates floods in CA, would appreciate if you could please explain the mechanism! In what way was the jet stream conducive to bring about the atmosperic river that hit CA?


Maybe this links gives you a visual aide: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php

Do you see the arms of moisture extending North? As the temperature difference between the Arctic and the tropics decreases, the arms will extend longer and become more loaded with water.  This will not only highly increase the moisture over the Arctic, but it will change the periodicity and magnitude of  atmospheric rivers that reach land.  I bet this will cause both droughts and floods at different times.

At least that's how I understand it.

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citrine

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #68 on: February 23, 2017, 04:01:25 PM »
More on climate change in general and the California floods:
http://mashable.com/2017/02/22/california-rivers-in-the-sky-flooding-climate/#mXZuc7c3Z5qj
near Raleigh, North Carolina / USDA Zone 7b

Sigmetnow

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #69 on: February 23, 2017, 04:35:04 PM »
The Arctic is already ”ice-free” for many of its inhabitants.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #70 on: February 23, 2017, 04:37:32 PM »
Every time I see the image of a polar bear I feel literally nauseous with guilt.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

be cause

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #71 on: February 23, 2017, 04:40:56 PM »
Archimid ..think instead of all the relieved seals ..
be the cause of only good
and love all beings as you should
and the 'God' of all Creation
will .. through you .. transform all nations :)

gerontocrat

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #72 on: February 23, 2017, 04:53:09 PM »
I guess that seals adapted to the high arctic climate  will not do well as the Arctic melts.

wili

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #73 on: February 23, 2017, 05:45:24 PM »
Things don't look too cheery in the Lake Chad Basin, either:

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/02/lake-chad-basin-world-neglected-crisis-rages-170222104058402.html

Lake Chad Basin: World's most neglected crisis rages on

As the humanitarian scale-up in the region continues, governments and donors are urged to do their part.



ger wrote: "South Sudan is mostly a man-made famine"

That's the point. Martin G claimed that purely climate related developments might green the southern Sahara/Sahel, so Arch pointed out that politics were playing a large role in the desolation of that area. My articles are just supporting that point... (but maybe I've been misunderstanding the whole thread?)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

5to10

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #74 on: February 23, 2017, 05:51:23 PM »
Can anyone help me detail positive feedbacks amplified by the new arctic state?

Albedos
Methane release
oceanic warming/Water vapour
downward radiations increasing related to temperature inversion


And any negatives... if there are any worth speaking of.

Archimid

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #75 on: February 23, 2017, 06:01:56 PM »

And any negatives... if there are any worth speaking of.

Clouds may help out during summer.  Greenland melt should help out year round at the cost of SLR.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

5to10

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #76 on: February 23, 2017, 06:27:44 PM »

And any negatives... if there are any worth speaking of.

Clouds may help out during summer.  Greenland melt should help out year round at the cost of SLR.

I thought clouds were projected to be a net positive?

As for melt.. Won't full sun on the open ocean heavily outweigh any cooling caused by it? Seems like nowhere near enough of an influence?

Martin Gisser

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #77 on: February 23, 2017, 06:31:41 PM »
Martin G claimed that purely climate related developments might green the southern Sahara/Sahel, so Arch pointed out that politics were playing a large role in the desolation of that area. My articles are just supporting that point... (but maybe I've been misunderstanding the whole thread?)
Please note I was just playing "non-devil's advocate". My only claim is that my scenario is not worse "science" than Guy McPherson's stuff.

I'm well aware of bad things at Lake Chad, South Sudan, Darfur, etc.

According to  the map presented above by Pmt111500, Lake Chad and the Sahel might well benefit from ice-free Arctic.  For some more non-devil's advocacy google "John Liu Rwanda". Africa is learning fast that ecosystem restoration and non-destructive agriculture gives multiple beneficial returns within just a few years. Methinks the Great Green Wall of Africa is not that far away anymore. In the Marrakesh 2016 climate talks it dawned who will be the pioneers of serious climate engineering. It will not be the rocket scientists of industrial civilization:

Agri-Culture can be a serious negative feedback.
Why is the earth silent at this destruction? (Martin Heidegger ca. 1937)

5to10

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #78 on: February 23, 2017, 06:55:47 PM »
Martin G claimed that purely climate related developments might green the southern Sahara/Sahel, so Arch pointed out that politics were playing a large role in the desolation of that area. My articles are just supporting that point... (but maybe I've been misunderstanding the whole thread?)
Please note I was just playing "non-devil's advocate". My only claim is that my scenario is not worse "science" than Guy McPherson's stuff.

I'm well aware of bad things at Lake Chad, South Sudan, Darfur, etc.

According to  the map presented above by Pmt111500, Lake Chad and the Sahel might well benefit from ice-free Arctic.  For some more non-devil's advocacy google "John Liu Rwanda". Africa is learning fast that ecosystem restoration and non-destructive agriculture gives multiple beneficial returns within just a few years. Methinks the Great Green Wall of Africa is not that far away anymore. In the Marrakesh 2016 climate talks it dawned who will be the pioneers of serious climate engineering. It will not be the rocket scientists of industrial civilization:

Agri-Culture can be a serious negative feedback.

Yes but it's foolish to suggest that the entirely possible (if not probable) near term collapse of important, already existing agricultural systems as a result of inconsistent/more extreme weather (Look at calis recent rainfall..) would not heavily outweigh the minutia of effects of farming in locales you're suggesting. This does not seem a rational perspective. Not to mention the cascading effects that collapse would have.

There is really no reason to go beyond a few simple questions with this whole situation the world is facing: "Are there more positive warming feedbacks than negatives? Is the gap between their influence increasing? How fast?"

Without the negatives, we are fucked, very near term. No amount of farming in Sudanese minefields is going to have any measurable impact on what's already in motion. Sure, if everything else weren't falling apart at the same time, it might be great. But it seems way too little too late at this point.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #79 on: February 23, 2017, 07:36:42 PM »
The problem with trying to re-frame the problem around the deniers is that you end up catering to them. It's one thing to be conservative and allow criticism to help, it's quite another to let the tail wag the entire dog.

The linked article is entitled: "Judith Curry confuses laypeople about climate models".  While I think the article errs on the side of least drama; I think that it does illustrate how impossible it is to appease denalists.


https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2017/02/21/judith-curry-confuses-laypeople-about-climate-models/

Extract: "Judith Curry has written a report for the Global Warming Policy Foundation called Climate Models for the layman. As you can imagine, the key conclusions is that climate models are not fit for the purpose of justifying political policies to fundamentally alter world social, economic and energy systems. I thought I would comment on the key points.

-   GCMs have not been subject to the rigorous verification and validation that is
the norm for engineering and regulatory science.


Well, yes, this is probably true. However, it’s primarily because we only have one planet and haven’t yet invented a time machine. We can’t run additional planetary-scale experiments and we can’t go back in time to collect more data from the past.

-   There are valid concerns about a fundamental lack of predictability in the complex
nonlinear climate system.


This appears to relate to the fact that the system is non-linear and, hence, chaotic. Well, that it is chaotic does not mean that it can vary wildly; it’s still largely constrained by energy balance."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Mozi

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #80 on: February 23, 2017, 08:32:44 PM »
The false implication being as well that what humans are currently doing to the environment is well understood and characterized - that the choice is between addressing global warming and not affecting the environment in unknown ways, when in reality our entire way of life is built around messing with systems that we do not fully understand.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #81 on: February 23, 2017, 09:30:52 PM »
5to10 has a concern that once the Arctic goes essentially ice free (EIF), the water will heat up and "game's over".

I highly suspect 5to10 is under appreciating how much heat will get sent to space during the early winter, even with inversions*, etc.  The first year the high arctic loses most of its ice, it will most likely do so late in the season, and (as others have recently posted) the sun will be relative low and there will be little heating of the ice-free water.  Even over time as the high Arctic melts earlier and freezes over later, it will continue to grow thick enough to survive past the solstice.  Remember, the first half-meter grows fast and while Arctic ice volume currently peaks in April, high Arctic volume peaks even later. 

I understand two things might change this soon to be realized 'new' normal:  storms mix up warm salty waters (preventing freeze up) and storms keep the high seas ice free due to turbulence (preventing freeze up).  I expect temperatures, however, will continue to be cold enough for over a meter of ice growth for quite a while (decade or more after the first EIF).

But what I 'know' is basically gleaned from Neven's blog and forum, not from any particular expertise.
_____
* - See  “Arctic temperature layers and inversions” thread.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

5to10

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #82 on: February 23, 2017, 09:39:32 PM »
5to10 has a concern that once the Arctic goes essentially ice free (EIF), the water will heat up and "game's over".

I highly suspect 5to10 is under appreciating how much heat will get sent to space during the early winter, even with inversions*, etc.  The first year the high arctic loses most of its ice, it will most likely do so late in the season, and (as others have recently posted) the sun will be relative low and there will be little heating of the ice-free water.  Even over time as the high Arctic melts earlier and freezes over later, it will continue to grow thick enough to survive past the solstice.  Remember, the first half-meter grows fast and while Arctic ice volume currently peaks in April, high Arctic volume peaks even later. 

I understand two things might change this soon to be realized 'new' normal:  storms mix up warm salty waters (preventing freeze up) and storms keep the high seas ice free due to turbulence (preventing freeze up).  I expect temperatures, however, will continue to be cold enough for over a meter of ice growth for quite a while (decade or more after the first EIF).

But what I 'know' is basically gleaned from Neven's blog and forum, not from any particular expertise.
_____
* - See  “Arctic temperature layers and inversions” thread.

I mean the air would heat up too, right? And it already is without all the ice gone as temp inversion reversal (?) seems to show. Logic seems to indicate that will only speed up as there is less and less ice? Both the warming of the air and the water simultaneously, and no ice there to cool.. I imagine that will have great impact on the next seasons ice formation, is what my unlearned intuition says. If it re-freezes, it will be drastically lower than the trend until now, seems a fair position.

Even if I'm wrong in these ideas, perhaps more educated people will be inclined to think about the issue in a bit of a different way while refuting, and perhaps new info will come out of it.

Archimid

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #83 on: February 23, 2017, 10:08:12 PM »
I mean the air would heat up too, right?


Go to Climate Reanalyzer: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#T2_anom

Compare where the temperature anomalies are now and where the most sea ice extent is missing. I attached two images and circled what I mean. It is February, we had plenty of ice and it is 10C warmer than normal in those areas. 
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5to10

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #84 on: February 23, 2017, 10:24:17 PM »
I get that not one nor the other are strong enough, but we haven't reached ice free yet. I'm wondering if both warmed air and warmed water, in an essentially ice free arctic, would tip the scale.

I mean, the smaller the amount of ice = the warmer the water AND the warmer the air, so perhaps there are thresholds wherein tipping points are reached, that we have yet to meet, in regards to ice volume. We need to account for all of these variables together to reach a reasonably sound prediction. We are dealing with exponential change..

Hoping based on your info that slow and linear "appearing" is how it will continue (Though it's not really slow and linear...).

Tigertown

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #85 on: February 23, 2017, 10:36:21 PM »
Which causes more harm? (1) A completely ice free Arctic for a month,give or take. OR (2) A really large percentage of the Arctic free of ice for multiple months. Which one will lead to more insolation and finally to more freezing season storms and high SST's, and a weaker vortex?

5to10

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #86 on: February 23, 2017, 10:44:19 PM »
Which causes more harm? (1) A completely ice free Arctic for a month,give or take. OR (2) A really large percentage of the Arctic free of ice for multiple months. Which one will lead to more insolation and finally to more freezing season storms and high SST's, and a weaker vortex?

Obviously the latter, I understand that. Still I have a strong gut feeling that there are huge unforseen consequences when we hit essentially ice free even for a month, as if some kind of important threshold we haven't yet considered will be crossed either when/soon after it happens, or at some point leading up to it.

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #87 on: February 23, 2017, 10:51:10 PM »
It's building up to a crescendo, no doubt. Perhaps one scenario this year, followed by the other next year. The heat is accumulating.

Archimid

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #88 on: February 23, 2017, 11:13:49 PM »
Which causes more harm? (1) A completely ice free Arctic for a month,give or take. OR (2) A really large percentage of the Arctic free of ice for multiple months. Which one will lead to more insolation and finally to more freezing season storms and high SST's, and a weaker vortex?

For an ice free Arctic to last for just a month it would have to happen in very late September. If it happens in August, I bet the freezing will be delayed several months. I think that enough partial melts might receive higher insolation that a month of full melt late in the year, but the full melt scenario leads to more storms and weaker vortex.
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oren

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #89 on: February 23, 2017, 11:16:08 PM »
5to10, I think you are under-appreciating the power of the polar winter. The ice does not cool the air and water during the winter. When the sun goes down, the long polar night sucks the energy to space and cools everything, generating ice. Yes, storms and open water can delay refreeze, but not for 6 long months. This year we had a delay of about one month in the peripheral seas, and basically no delay at all in the central CAB itself. Should we get an almost total melt-out, I expect the refreeze delay to reach maybe 2-3 months, but it can't last the whole winter.
The normal temps in midwinter are around -30oC. It takes around -10oC to freeze relatively calm and relatively fresh open ocean water. Storms could cause a lot of turbulence and mixing. And open water venting heat could cause an added anomaly of let's say +10oC. But in a long winter there will come a calm cold day that will manage to generate an initial ice layer, which will then serve as a basis for calming the sea and generating more ice.
After such a winter, you might even still get a maximum ice extent similar to recent years. Many regions of the arctic currently stay at their max extent for 4 months or more. Even a shorter freezing season may bring them to the same extent at some point. But volume will be much lower, and the next summer even more prone to total and early melt-out. After some years like that I can't say what is going to happen, but I suggest not to get carried away with short term expectations.

5to10

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #90 on: February 23, 2017, 11:23:07 PM »
5to10, I think you are under-appreciating the power of the polar winter. The ice does not cool the air and water during the winter. When the sun goes down, the long polar night sucks the energy to space and cools everything, generating ice. Yes, storms and open water can delay refreeze, but not for 6 long months. This year we had a delay of about one month in the peripheral seas, and basically no delay at all in the central CAB itself. Should we get an almost total melt-out, I expect the refreeze delay to reach maybe 2-3 months, but it can't last the whole winter.
The normal temps in midwinter are around -30oC. It takes around -10oC to freeze relatively calm and relatively fresh open ocean water. Storms could cause a lot of turbulence and mixing. And open water venting heat could cause an added anomaly of let's say +10oC. But in a long winter there will come a calm cold day that will manage to generate an initial ice layer, which will then serve as a basis for calming the sea and generating more ice.
After such a winter, you might even still get a maximum ice extent similar to recent years. Many regions of the arctic currently stay at their max extent for 4 months or more. Even a shorter freezing season may bring them to the same extent at some point. But volume will be much lower, and the next summer even more prone to total and early melt-out. After some years like that I can't say what is going to happen, but I suggest not to get carried away with short term expectations.

Thank you for the reply. I'm not meaning to suggest total loss of ice outweighs sundown, I'm just wondering how much of an effect, if any, the existence of large volumes of ice has on said temperatures. You're basically saying it's miniscule in comparison, that's good. Not that the situation looks much better.

Archimid

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #91 on: February 24, 2017, 02:16:41 AM »
I think that there will be a point when there is so little ice that the DMI80 graph instead of showing  a plateau at around 0C, the temperature will shoot up several degrees, maybe 10C. The year that happens it will take a long time before significant ice is formed over the arctic because it will be too warm, there will be many hot air intrusions and too many waves.

But the Arctic winter is long and dark. Ice will not form in the open, warm, wavy ocean but I fail to see how ice can't form around many of the geographic features around the Arctic. That ice can eventually grow enough to calm the waves and grow. It can even grow record fast if the circumstances are favorable. However this will cause the ice to be much thinner for next summer.

The summer following the first ice free arctic will be ice free even sooner than the year before. Possibly before summer solstice. That freezing season will start much later because summer temperatures will be crazy hot (for the arctic). That cycle will repeats until the planet cools enough or there is literally 0 ice year round.

Regardless. Before we hit ice free we will know. We are all starting to feel the effects now and as the arctic approaches ice free conditions the changes will be more obvious. I bet that by the time it reaches 0 the world's climate is already quite messed up. The transition years to a fully ice free arctic will be the worst. I'm sure that some decades after the first ice free arctic, once the climate stabilizes and society has been culled, civilization can re-emerge, hopefully with lessons learned. 
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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #92 on: February 24, 2017, 02:23:57 AM »
5to10

Echoing other comments. Your original post which I queried suggested multi-degree changes for 'the earth' in just years. There is no evidence that I am aware of for that happening. In contrast the video was talking very much about local changes in the Arctic and that is a whole different story. Even the ice cores show that different things happened in different parts of Greenland. So vey localised disruptions rather than global.

Could we see some dramatic switches in local Arctic climate if sea ice crashes? Yes. The circulation changes we are seeing this year suggest those possibilities. But changes of that scale globally are a whole different kettle of fish. Needing much larger changes in heat flows. Climate might be disrupted on a larger scale quickly, but global temperature simply can't rise that quickly. Thermodynamics precludes it.

5to10

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #93 on: February 24, 2017, 02:55:44 AM »
5to10

Echoing other comments. Your original post which I queried suggested multi-degree changes for 'the earth' in just years. There is no evidence that I am aware of for that happening. In contrast the video was talking very much about local changes in the Arctic and that is a whole different story. Even the ice cores show that different things happened in different parts of Greenland. So vey localised disruptions rather than global.

Could we see some dramatic switches in local Arctic climate if sea ice crashes? Yes. The circulation changes we are seeing this year suggest those possibilities. But changes of that scale globally are a whole different kettle of fish. Needing much larger changes in heat flows. Climate might be disrupted on a larger scale quickly, but global temperature simply can't rise that quickly. Thermodynamics precludes it.

Okay.. So the biggest consequence then is disruption of local (and global?) climate, or weather patterns, or both? Thank you. I hate to come off like a fool here but I'm not as knowledgeable as most of you.

It seems important to determine the big consequences of this and snowball effects.

If weather is disrupted, agriculture could be seriously affected. Again, I'm not sure at what scale the disruption may be, so perhaps that's a false statement too.

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #94 on: February 24, 2017, 03:30:57 AM »
If weather is disrupted, agriculture could be seriously affected. Again, I'm not sure at what scale the disruption may be, so perhaps that's a false statement too.


Already started, and getting worse. Several countries this year have already lost crops and land to floods. Droughts, locusts and other insects are getting worse.
 
In some places this has been going on for a while now.
www.bbc.com/news/business-32827047

As the Arctic becomes less effective as the Earth's air conditioner, things will get worse faster. The Arctic doesn't have to be completely ice free for that to happen.

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #95 on: February 24, 2017, 04:17:07 AM »
Weather prediction from the results of climate models is just as hard as weather prediction from current initial values. The two function quite a lot differently wrt time and gridsize...  losing crops due insufficient rains (in the growing season of present time) is no doubt the biggest threat to human society (well, the floods do a good bit like tigertown said.). But the incresed moisture in the atmosphere might generate new times/areas for rains. I don't know if anyone has tried to initiate a global weather model (is there such a thing?, normally weather models handle only a fraction of the planet) with the climate model output of 2040-50s.

There's nothing in my mind that would stop the changes initiated by the Arctic melt to expand to the whole hemisphere. The intertropical convergence zone would be an atmospheric barrier, though. Clouds should be way more (in north) partially blocking the sun like ice did on clear skies and the rising tropopause allows  cloud water to cool higher up. Rains might _feel_ colder in the future.

But no, I don't know if southern india will change to a desert or if southern plains of us do the same. There are a bunch of other areas mentioned as having ill effects like the Mediterranean, here the 'medicanes' could be the beginning of new sort of weather pattern. There's all too much for one man to keep track od it all, thus the national meteorological offices...

« Last Edit: February 24, 2017, 04:35:57 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #96 on: February 24, 2017, 12:34:15 PM »
The truth is that we don't know what will come about in this uncontrolled massive experiment on the climate system of the only planet we've got.

However long and dark the Arctic winter is, it is not just open choppy seas that could prevent refreeze. As we have seen, transport of warm air from lower latitudes has increased, and will presumably continue to do so. There will also be ever more water vapor in the area, which will act as a blanket holding in heat. Not to mention methane...

Earlier epochs like the Eocene show quite warm ice-free Arctic conditions, and that is surely where we are headed eventually. The exact timing is the difficult thing to know for certain.
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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #97 on: February 24, 2017, 01:14:44 PM »
In past era's of warm Arctic the changes were slow and and so the impacts had time to fully express themselves before the next set of changes began to impact.

Our warming is near instant. Our loading of the atmosphere with GHG's has been near instant. We are sat in a system that is well out of balance with the changes we should be seeing from such forcings and the changes we do see?

The last time we saw such temps/GHG forcings 2/3rds of Greenland was ice free and West Antarctica was ice free. This is the amount of excess energy that must already be within the system? Given enough time it will melt Greenland and West Antarctica but what will that 'excess energy' be turning its attentions on in the meantime?
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5to10

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #98 on: February 24, 2017, 01:20:10 PM »
In past era's of warm Arctic the changes were slow and and so the impacts had time to fully express themselves before the next set of changes began to impact.

Our warming is near instant. Our loading of the atmosphere with GHG's has been near instant. We are sat in a system that is well out of balance with the changes we should be seeing from such forcings and the changes we do see?

The last time we saw such temps/GHG forcings 2/3rds of Greenland was ice free and West Antarctica was ice free. This is the amount of excess energy that must already be within the system? Given enough time it will melt Greenland and West Antarctica but what will that 'excess energy' be turning its attentions on in the meantime?

It is safe to say imo, chaotic global weather even by recent standards. Massively disruptive weather, perhaps.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Reply #99 on: February 24, 2017, 02:35:46 PM »
I recall there was a study published (something like) 3 to 5 years ago* that modeled Arctic ice rebound if, magically, all the Arctic sea ice disappeared one day.  The ice returned to the (then) current volume (or extent) in about 3 years.  I'm sure they were looking primarily at albedo issues - summer heating - and winter freezing. 

Today we know more (or think we know more) about how weather is affected by ice loss, including increased humidity and storminess.  I am curious how that old model wound respond if adjusted to include these 'new' feedbacks.

_____
* - I tried looking for it (failed); it was obliquely referred to in these threads (Slow Transition) in 2014 (at least).
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.