I liked the conversation but the PIOMAS thread is one of the worst threads to have it. Because it was on such a bad thread I didn't feel like joining the conversation as to not derail that thread any further. I have derailed threads before and now that I'm getting the hang of the forum I realize how counterproductive derailing threads really is.
So to all involved in that conversation, please try to stay on topic. If you have something to say, start a thread or revive a more relevant thread. For me it's not easy to stay on topic but I'm making an effort because this forum is a really valuable source of information. Thread discipline is an important part of what makes it so good.
About models: I think that all models are wrong including the most fundamental models like e= mc^2, F=ma or D=st. But that does not mean they can't be useful. The models are wrong in an absolute sense, but within the bounds of uncertainty they can predict the future and allow for amazing engineering feats. In the case of PIOMAS, the model is definitely not perfect but it is pretty darn good for it's purpose.
About models being science: In the case of PIOMAS it absolutely follows the scientific method. PIOMAS postulates a theory using sophisticated math and with each passing day the theory is tested against the available measurements. It can do so with enough accuracy that following the PIOMAS model gives one a consistent idea of Arctic sea ice conditions. That's as science as science gets.
About scientists: I admire them with all my heart. The thousands of hours of disciplined learning and many hours of careful writing, coding and measuring are feats that I can only dream of doing.
That said, I disagree with the consensus. I think climate change will be abrupt and we are already seeing the beginnings of it. I think that many scientist that accept the reality of climate change deny the risk for abruptness for very real psychological reasons. Some do it to protect their credibility, others do it to protect others from panic, others do it because they simply can't handle living with this most terrible knowledge.
About climate change deniers: These are either ignorants or cowards(or both). Even the ones who convinced themselves that they'll make a profit out of this are ignorant cowards. Through their cowardice they are making climate change much worse than it will already be. I do take comfort in that if I'm right, nature will be dispensing justice to these people.