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Author Topic: 2017 SWIPA report  (Read 689 times)

Cate

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2017 SWIPA report
« on: April 25, 2017, 10:19:25 PM »
The 2017 Snow, Water, Ice, and Permafrost in the Arctic report and "Summary for Policy Makers" is released in advance of the meeting of the Arctic Council on May 11.

The work of over 90 scientists is included in this report, including Dr David Barber of the U of Manitoba.

LInk to summary:

http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3677458-SNOW-WATER-ICE-AND-PERMAFROST-SUMMARY-FOR-POLICY.html#document/p1

Accompanying video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9G7UnTCjPg

Article in Science Nordic: http://sciencenordic.com/new-report-how-arctic-will-look-30-years

Links to previous (2011) report and other info: http://www.amap.no/swipa/

Neven, I wasn't sure where to put this. Hope this is okay.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2017, 10:27:54 PM by Cate »

oren

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Re: 2017 SWIPA report
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2017, 07:00:11 AM »
From the article:
The report also projects how the Arctic is likely to continue to change in the coming decades.

In 30 years time, the Arctic is projected to be four to five degrees warmer than it was at the turn of the century, with continued decline in snow and permafrost.

They confirm that in as little as two decades, the Arctic Ocean is expected to be ice-free in summer. This is earlier than many climate models predict, say the SWIPA scientists and represents a new type of Arctic environment.

Seidenkrantz is not surprised by these conclusions.

Data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in the USA suggests that the Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer sometime between 2030 and 2050, says Seidenkrantz.

“But on average sea ice extent has decreased much faster in recent years, and when you consider not only sea ice extent but also sea ice thickness and the distribution of multiyear sea ice, the decrease has been very fast in recent years,” she says.

However, both Seidenkrantz and the SWIPA scientists point out that there is still not enough data to make a more precise prediction, since sea ice varies so much from one year to the next.

Neven

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Re: 2017 SWIPA report
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2017, 09:45:35 AM »
Neven, I wasn't sure where to put this. Hope this is okay.

It's perfect, thanks. I saw that this is getting picked up by the media (bless their heart).
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charles_oil

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Re: 2017 SWIPA report
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2017, 04:22:16 PM »

A handy scary summary analysis:


http://gcaptain.com/quickening-arctic-thaw-could-cost-trillions-report/


First part:
OSLO, April 25 (Reuters) – The Arctic’s quickening thaw is melting the permafrost under buildings and roads from Siberia to Alaska, raising world sea levels and disrupting temperature patterns further south, an international study said on Tuesday.    Link: http://www.amap.no/
The frigid region’s shift to warmer and wetter conditions, resulting in melting ice around the region, may cost the world economy trillions of dollars this century, it estimated.
The report by 90 scientists, including United States experts, urged governments with interests in the Arctic to cut greenhouse gas emissions. U.S. President Donald Trump doubts that human activities, led by use of fossil fuels, are the main driver of climate change.
“The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth, and rapidly becoming a warmer, wetter and more variable environment,” according to the study, which updates scientific findings from 2011.
“Increasing greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the primary underlying cause,” they wrote in the study commissioned by the Arctic Council grouping the United States, Russia, Canada, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland and Iceland.
Arctic warming could have cumulative net costs from 2010-2100 of between $7 trillion and $90 trillion, it said, with harm exceeding benefits such as easier access for oil and gas exploration and shipping, it said.  Link: http://gcaptain.com/ice-class-lng-tanker-forges-path-for-arctic-shipping-super-highway/
The period 2011-2015 was the warmest since records began in 1900. Sea ice on the Arctic Ocean, which shrank to a record low in 2012, could disappear in summers by the 2030s, earlier than many earlier projections, it said.


TerryM

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Re: 2017 SWIPA report
« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2017, 07:42:58 PM »
When leadership of the Arctic Counsel past out of Canadian hands last year our representative gleefully reported that she had been able to block every proposal that the Russians had made.
It's reassuring to know that such Counsels are so finely attuned to world politics, but it is nice now that they are again focusing on the Arctic.
Terry