Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Author Topic: Hurricane season 2017  (Read 3351 times)

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1086
    • View Profile
Hurricane season 2017
« on: May 05, 2017, 11:19:24 PM »
As NOAA now give an invest in the Eastern Pacific a 40% chance to develop during the next 5 days, I think it's fair to start this thread as the "real" hurricane season is underway both in EPAC and NATL. TCs in Northern Indian Ocean as well in Western North Pacific will also be handled here.


pileus

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 271
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2017, 02:00:13 AM »
For the Atlantic CSU expects a less active season, although as noted in the preamble it only takes one if you are in the path.  With all sorts of intensity records being surpassed in recent years due to the planetary heat engine, it would seem only a matter of time before another devastating cyclone strikes a major population center along the Gulf or East Coast of the US, and of course in the other basins across the globe.

https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/04/2017-04.pdf

"We anticipate that the 2017 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below- average activity. The current neutral ENSO is likely to transition to either weak or moderate El Niño conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past month and the far North Atlantic is relatively cold, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted



Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2017, 06:07:46 PM »
NOAA:  Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year, in large part due to ‘Weak or non-existent’ El Nino.
Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
...
“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year. Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean. However, the climate models are showing considerable uncertainty, which is reflected in the comparable probabilities for an above-normal and near-normal season.
...
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-most-likely-year

Of related interest:
NOAA’s newest geostationary satellite will be positioned as GOES-East this fall
Moves to 75 degrees west over the equator once operational in November
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-s-newest-geostationary-satellite-will-be-positioned-as-goes-east-fall

However...
Reminder:  When GOES-16 moves from 89.5 to 75 in Nov/Dec it will not transmit data.  GOES-R Series satellites do not both move and transmit.
https://twitter.com/wxsatchat/status/867768219523624960
« Last Edit: May 25, 2017, 06:13:43 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2017, 11:33:25 PM »
U.S.:  Hurricane season starts with nobody in charge at FEMA or NOAA
The 2017 hurricane season started Thursday without anyone in charge at the two federal agencies most involved in dealing with hurricanes, National Public Radio notes.

Five months after Donald J. Trump was sworn in as president, no one has taken the reins at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which is in charge of preparing for and then dealing with the aftermath of a hurricane. The last FEMA boss was a Florida man, W. Craig Fugate, who departed in January after seven years on the job. Fugate previously served as the head of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. Trump finally nominated someone at the end of April, but he has yet to be confirmed.

Trump meanwhile has made no move to appoint a new boss at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the agency in charge of the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, which provide hurricane forecasts and hurricane warnings in advance of a storm.

Incidentally, NOAA Is predicting an above-average hurricane season this year. Trump's proposed budget has targeted both agencies for cuts.
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/hurricane-season-starts-with-nobody-in-charge-at-fema-or-noaa/2325887
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

budmantis

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1146
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2017, 08:10:34 AM »
At this time of year, one would expect tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea. Cape Verde season doesn't usually start until the latter half of July. The latest advisory from the Nat'l Hurricane Center shows the latest disturbance off the coast of Africa!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3222
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2017, 02:16:46 PM »
Two shots at the first tropical storm of the "official" 2017 Atlantic hurricane season:
« Last Edit: June 19, 2017, 01:08:01 PM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3222
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #6 on: June 19, 2017, 11:30:05 AM »
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Trinidad
* Tobago
* Grenada
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1720
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #7 on: June 19, 2017, 01:05:34 PM »
Two shots at the first tropical storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season:


Arlene was pre-season April 20/21 but is it conventional to (unofficially?) extend the season back so that Arlene is the first tropical storm of the 2017 season?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/ARLENE.shtml?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Arlene
is within
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3222
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #8 on: June 19, 2017, 01:24:31 PM »
Arlene was pre-season April 20/21 but is it conventional to (unofficially?) extend the season back so that Arlene is the first tropical storm of the 2017 season?


I amended my post! There was much debate about whether Hurricane Alex should  be considered as part of the 2015 "hurricane season" or not. NHC naming goes by calendar year, so Arlene was undoubtedly the first official tropical storm of 2017 in the North Atlantic.

However, according to the NHC:

Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

These numbers include Tropical Storm Arlene, a rare pre-season storm that formed over the eastern Atlantic in April.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #9 on: June 19, 2017, 01:25:07 PM »
New acronym from the weather world. PTC = Potential Tropical Cyclone
Is the software ready for it?

Brandon Bolinski:  PTC #2 in the books! What did we break? …
https://twitter.com/bhbolinski/status/876546167814987779

Edit
From June 18:
"Historical milestone today:  First ever 5 day advisory before a disturbance becomes a tropical depression or tropical storm."
https://mobile.twitter.com/chrislandsea/status/876618068457390081
« Last Edit: June 19, 2017, 02:28:45 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #10 on: June 19, 2017, 11:59:03 PM »
Tropical Storm #Bret has formed east of Trinidad & Tobago. Only 3rd TS to form east of Lesser Antilles pre-July, and 2nd lowest latitude.
https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/876903622025465857
(Satellite gif at link.)

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #11 on: June 20, 2017, 12:01:24 AM »
Some tremendous rainfall (up to 10 inches [254 mm]) being forecast by @NWS thru Thursday for coastal LA, MS, AL, and west FL panhandle from #PTC3
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/876915082742996992
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

jai mitchell

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1653
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #12 on: June 20, 2017, 12:05:02 AM »
The far side of Lake Champlain looks to get that ~250mm within a 24 hour period.
(repost)
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg117609.html#msg117609
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

budmantis

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1146
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #13 on: June 20, 2017, 12:54:34 AM »
The far side of Lake Champlain looks to get that ~250mm within a 24 hour period.
(repost)
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg117609.html#msg117609


Jai: Arent you referring to Lake Pontchartrain?

BudM

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #14 on: June 20, 2017, 06:24:55 PM »
"On day 151 of Trump’s presidency and day 20 of hurricane season (and a storm headed for the Gulf Coast), we finally have a director of FEMA."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/877191058081198080
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #15 on: July 18, 2017, 08:18:28 PM »
Yes, really.

“Because it’s 2017, we might have Tropical Storm Don and Tropical Storm Hilary at the same time.”

https://grist.org/briefly/because-its-2017-we-might-have-tropical-storm-don-and-tropical-storm-hilary-at-the-same-time/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1840
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #16 on: July 19, 2017, 01:29:42 AM »
Yes, really.

“Because it’s 2017, we might have Tropical Storm Don and Tropical Storm Hilary at the same time.”

https://grist.org/briefly/because-its-2017-we-might-have-tropical-storm-don-and-tropical-storm-hilary-at-the-same-time/


Hurricane Vlad will put them both to shame.  8)


Terry

Forest Dweller

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 26
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #17 on: July 22, 2017, 06:19:06 PM »
Hurricane Train fizzling out, Typhoon Express on the way?

An impressive sight to see.

I believe there have recently now been 7 hurricanes forming in the northeast Pacific, 4 visible here with the strongest closer to Hawaii.
But the relatively low SSTA appears to protect the islands so far as they weaken.

The same cannot be said for Japan/Phillipines etc on the other side where much of the water is above 30 C.
3 much larger rotations building and getting awful close.

Archimid

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 626
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #18 on: July 23, 2017, 01:52:49 PM »
Nice animation.

the progression of dust w/ historical hurricane formations for each month of the season.

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/888862283660763136
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #19 on: July 23, 2017, 07:42:12 PM »
More on the record Pacific storms. (Plus some Atlantic historic data.)

Eight Tropical Cyclones At Once in the North Pacific Ocean For First Time Since 1974
The north Pacific Ocean pulled off an impressive feat with eight tropical cyclones spinning at one time Saturday, July 22, something that hasn't been accomplished in more than four decades.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/eight-tropical-cyclones-pacific-july2017
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #20 on: July 27, 2017, 10:10:23 PM »
U.S. Mid-Atlantic this weekend to experience strong tropical storm conditions from powerful, out-of-season Nor'easter type system.
4-9" rainfall
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/890647805974401024
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #21 on: July 31, 2017, 08:32:40 PM »
"Supertyphoon #Noru is now a Category 5 w/ max winds of 160 mph - the 1st Cat. 5 hurricane/typhoon of the 2017 Northern Hemisphere TC season."
With radar loop:  https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/891770946411003904

"Hugely powerful Category 5 Super Typhoon #Noru has rapidly intensified over the last day or so. May impact southern Japan in about 7 days."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/892068470656909312

"Seriously, this is a beautiful storm.
For now, #Noru is safely out at sea. This 3-min resolution satellite loop will not disappoint."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/892069289909403649

"As it looks right now, Super Typhoon #Noru could rival some of the strongest landfalls ever recorded in Japan.
Please watch this one closely"
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/892076666381516805
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1480
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #22 on: July 31, 2017, 08:52:16 PM »
WeatherUnderground's "Category 6" reports: Tropical Storm Emily Making Landfall Near Tampa Bay

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate that Tropical Storm Emily made landfall with peak sustained winds of 45 mph at 10:45 AM EDT (1445 UTC) Monday on Anna Maria Island, just west of Bradenton, Florida. Emily spun into life on Monday morning at 8 am EDT just off the Gulf Coast of Florida. Emily’s formation came just 48 hours after receiving no mention at all as a possible threat in the National Hurricane Center’s 8 am Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook. Emily erupted along the Gulf of Mexico portion of a cold front that had pushed over Florida during the weekend, and took full advantage of very warm water temperatures near 30°C (86°F). Development was not expected due to high wind shear of 20 – 30 knots, plus very dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere, where the relative humidity was near 45%. Emily formed so quickly and unexpectedly that the Hurricane Hunters never flew into the storm. It is very unusual for a named storm to make landfall in the U.S. without the Hurricane Hunters ever sampling the storm.
[emphases added]
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #23 on: July 31, 2017, 11:16:32 PM »
Florida declares state of emergency due to Tropical Storm Emily flooding.
On the Weather Channel, Governor Rick Scott says Floridians, and visitors, need to prepare for hurricanes. "This time was a little different. Typically we have a little bit of notice."
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Forest Dweller

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 26
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2017, 07:06:45 AM »
Nullschool is projecting a severe blow for south Japan 6 days from now.


Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #25 on: August 01, 2017, 11:55:11 PM »
South Florida:  Flooding in Miami and Miami Beach from TD Emily.  Bands of thunderstorms continue to train across the area.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Csnavywx

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 402
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #26 on: August 02, 2017, 12:29:55 AM »
Noru is a very rare breed -- an annular hurricane. Only 2% of all hurricanes are annular during their lifetime. These hurricanes lack banding and are resistant to wind shear and can often maintain high intensity for long periods of time over otherwise marginal conditions.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2017, 01:37:11 AM by Csnavywx »

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #27 on: August 02, 2017, 03:58:05 AM »
 :o  Massive flooding in Miami Beach.

"This video from Miami Beach is pretty scary"
https://twitter.com/officialjoelf/status/892526423294038016
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #28 on: August 02, 2017, 05:59:19 PM »
At the link: 7-hour radar loop spanning the flooding event in Miami Beach and Miami on Tuesday afternoon. Over 7 inches (178mm) of rain fell in Miami Beach.
https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/892761235565015042
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3222
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #29 on: August 03, 2017, 10:43:15 AM »
The 5 day Atlantic outlook:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3222
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #30 on: August 03, 2017, 08:40:46 PM »
Now there's another one:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Grubbegrabben

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 1
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #31 on: August 04, 2017, 09:22:03 PM »
First post here, hello all!

The typhoon Noru has been staggering around the E. Pacific like a drunken sailor for quite a while. Been watching Nullshool and the Japan Meteorogical Agency site to see where it ends up.

Looks like it will make/just made landfall in s. Japan. It will hardly move at all during the next 24 hours. I know my house wouln't last 5 minutes but I assume this area gets hit by typhoons once in a while so the infrastructure should be able to handle it. But still, 24+ hours is a long time with typhoon winds hammering down outside. And 10 metre waves...  and 60 mm rain/hour.

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

oren

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1474
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #32 on: August 04, 2017, 10:45:22 PM »
First post here, hello all!
Hello and welcome. The first one is the hardest...

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3222
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #33 on: August 06, 2017, 02:28:55 PM »
The probabilities have changed in the North Atlantic, and welcome GG!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3222
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #34 on: August 07, 2017, 01:54:20 PM »
The latest Franklin forecast:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Allen

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1480
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #35 on: August 07, 2017, 06:20:18 PM »
From NCAR website, the likelihood of Franklin becoming a hurricane appears to have increased.  The Cat 6 folks think this is true as well.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #36 on: August 08, 2017, 05:32:50 PM »
Michael Ventrice:  12Z Calibrated ECMWF EPS up to 70% chance for development with regards to invest #99L, with a track towards the eastern U.S.
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/894685535775723521
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #37 on: August 10, 2017, 01:53:29 AM »
Michael Lowry:  Strong words today from @NOAA as we enter the heart of #hurricane season. Regardless, it only takes one ☝️ http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/early-season-storms-one-indicator-of-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-ahead

https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/895303525181394944

"Above-normal season likely with 14 to 19 named storms."
"The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010."
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Daniel B.

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 39
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #38 on: August 10, 2017, 02:22:51 PM »
Michael Lowry:  Strong words today from @NOAA as we enter the heart of #hurricane season. Regardless, it only takes one ☝️ http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/early-season-storms-one-indicator-of-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-ahead

https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/895303525181394944

"Above-normal season likely with 14 to 19 named storms."
"The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010."


That is a large change from May, when they forecast 11-17, although the hurricane totals remain largely unchanged.  That is only slightly more active than normal, as the average for the last 10 years has been 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors.  NOAA has improved their forecasting recently, although the last time they predicted an above-normal season (2013), it was a bust.  On the flip side, they did correctly forecast the active 2010 season; 14-23 named storms (19 recorded),  8-14 hurricanes (12), and 3-7 majors (5).  They are not forecasting quite that active of a season this year, although this year's start is similar to 2010:  2017; 2 June storms, 1 July, and 2 in August (so far), compared to 2010; 1 June storm, 1 July and 2 in August, with one hurricane each.  The 2010 season really started ramping up at the end of August.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #39 on: August 15, 2017, 03:22:19 AM »
  ;) ;D

"Please proceed with caution when sharing long range deterministic model forecasts for undeveloped potential tropical systems."
https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/897148333046849536
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Jim Hunt

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3222
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #40 on: August 15, 2017, 04:02:58 PM »
Since nobody else seems to have mentioned it yet, Hurricane Gert is currently forecast to send some significant swells in my direction:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 8320
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #41 on: August 18, 2017, 12:47:15 AM »
Tropical Storm Harvey is the 8th named storm of hurricane season, more than 5 weeks ahead of schedule. 8th storm typically doesn't form until Sep 24th.

Expected to be ~hurricane strength near Central America on Monday.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/898289578771046400

Radar loop at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Daniel B.

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 39
    • View Profile
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #42 on: August 18, 2017, 05:06:15 PM »
Tropical Storm Harvey is the 8th named storm of hurricane season, more than 5 weeks ahead of schedule. 8th storm typically doesn't form until Sep 24th.

Expected to be ~hurricane strength near Central America on Monday.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/898289578771046400

Radar loop at the link.

Not sure where the twitter got their information, but the average date, averaged over the past 30 years,  for the 8th tropical development has been Sept. 4.  Half the length claimed on the twitter post.  Perhaps there was some sort of quirk associated with those years that did not produce eight tropical storms.  Thus far, 2017 has had more tropical development than the average; 8 compared to 5.4, with only four years experiencing their eighth at an earlier date. 

But you are only looking at one particular measure of tropical activity.  The intensity of the storms has been near average.  2017 has spawned two hurricanes, but no major hurricanes.  The 30-year average to date has been 1.4 hurricanes, with one major hurricane every two years.  It is still early in season, and things could change dramatically in the next month.  There does appear to be favorability for the development of another storm in the next week.