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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #100 on: August 25, 2017, 09:47:20 PM »
Harvey is at 943mb and falling.  top 10 US landfalls.  My guess would be around 930 at landfall this evening.


P-maker

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #101 on: August 25, 2017, 10:05:47 PM »
Amazing how the ECMWF forecast map goes all white over Corpus Christi at the same time as the Arctic goes all blue. Could  there be a link between evaporative cooling of the Gulf of Mexico and the thin ice exodus in the Arctic?

The funny thing is, that #Harvey taking out six refineries in Corpus Christi will most likely mean a rise in the oil price. If you are into market fundamentalism, you will most likely see this as a good sign. For normal folks it should be considered a tragedy in the making.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #102 on: August 25, 2017, 10:11:34 PM »
Harvey aftermath:  Areas "uninhabitable for weeks or months."

Zero mincing of words in @NWSCorpus #Harvey local statement. "Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period."
https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/901039973796859904

Remember, even if you survive the storm, there will likely be no electricity. No air conditioning.  And possibly no water, or sources of food, or fuel, or help.  And standing water and land will be highly polluted.  Think Hurricane Katrina.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #103 on: August 25, 2017, 10:15:29 PM »
Per @NWSWPC, the reason there's no little "x" on Texas this graphic is bc their code is only designed to handle 30". #Harvey forecast is 35"
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901174083513065472
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TerryM

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #104 on: August 25, 2017, 10:31:20 PM »
Another thing worth considering is that without power the ATMs as well as credit/debit cards are all down.
Will we have a bunch of people who planned ahead and are carrying large bundles of cash, interacting with others unable to access any of their own money, in a region where everyone loves their guns?
Terry

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #105 on: August 25, 2017, 10:39:40 PM »
‘Prolonged misery’: Meteorologists break out the thesaurus for Hurricane Harvey.
Over the past two days, the storm — anticipated to hit Texas later Friday — has rapidly strengthened into a Category 3 major hurricane, packing 120 mph winds and a threatening a multi-day rainfall so heavy you’ll need a yardstick to measure it. The storm’s impact could be among the worst in U.S. weather history, rivaling even Hurricane Katrina.

The implications are hard to put into words, so I asked my meteorologist colleagues to describe them using one or two:

“Epic, unprecedented” — Brian McNoldy, hurricane specialist at University of Miami

“Unprecedented danger” — Marshall Shepherd, meteorology professor at University of Georgia

“In a word: life-changing. The question is where, how expansive, and how many people’s lives it will change. If nothing else this should be a big wake-up call to many.” — Anthony Fracasso, forecaster at the NOAA Weather Prediction Center

“Dangerous, scary” — Adam Sobel, hurricane expert, Columbia University

“Epic deluge” — Ryan Maue, hurricane expert, WeatherBELL analytics

“One word, given the storm’s longevity: torturous” — Jim Cantore, the Weather Channel

“Simply: overwhelming” — Taylor Trogdon, National Hurricane Center

“Prolonged misery” — Rick Smith, NWS meteorologist in Norman, Oklahoma

“Two answers, not playing by the rules with both. 1.) Forecast challenge of a career. 2.) Enormously challenging.” — Matt Lanza, energy industry meteorologist based in Houston
http://grist.org/briefly/prolonged-misery-meteorologists-break-out-the-thesaurus-for-hurricane-harvey/amp/
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TerryM

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #106 on: August 25, 2017, 11:19:43 PM »
‘Prolonged misery’: Meteorologists break out the thesaurus for Hurricane Harvey.
Over the past two days, the storm — anticipated to hit Texas later Friday — has rapidly strengthened into a Category 3 major hurricane, packing 120 mph winds and a threatening a multi-day rainfall so heavy you’ll need a yardstick to measure it. The storm’s impact could be among the worst in U.S. weather history, rivaling even Hurricane Katrina.

The implications are hard to put into words, so I asked my meteorologist colleagues to describe them using one or two:

“Epic, unprecedented” — Brian McNoldy, hurricane specialist at University of Miami

“Unprecedented danger” — Marshall Shepherd, meteorology professor at University of Georgia

“In a word: life-changing. The question is where, how expansive, and how many people’s lives it will change. If nothing else this should be a big wake-up call to many.” — Anthony Fracasso, forecaster at the NOAA Weather Prediction Center

“Dangerous, scary” — Adam Sobel, hurricane expert, Columbia University

“Epic deluge” — Ryan Maue, hurricane expert, WeatherBELL analytics

“One word, given the storm’s longevity: torturous” — Jim Cantore, the Weather Channel

“Simply: overwhelming” — Taylor Trogdon, National Hurricane Center

“Prolonged misery” — Rick Smith, NWS meteorologist in Norman, Oklahoma

“Two answers, not playing by the rules with both. 1.) Forecast challenge of a career. 2.) Enormously challenging.” — Matt Lanza, energy industry meteorologist based in Houston
http://grist.org/briefly/prolonged-misery-meteorologists-break-out-the-thesaurus-for-hurricane-harvey/amp/

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wili

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #107 on: August 25, 2017, 11:23:49 PM »
rs's latest on the subject:

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/25/harveys-mammoth-deluge-potential-some-models-are-showing-storm-could-produce-five-feet-of-rain/#comment-122226

Harvey’s Mammoth Deluge Potential: Some Models Are Showing Storm Could Produce Five Feet of Rain

Media, Texas, and Gulf Coast residents take note: the thing to be most concerned about with regards to Harvey is not its admittedly life-threatening storm surge and strong winds, but what is shaping up to be a potentially historic rainfall event.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #108 on: August 25, 2017, 11:25:55 PM »
“In terms of economic impact, Harvey will probably be on par with Hurricane Katrina,” said University of Miami senior hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy. “The Houston area and Corpus Christi are going to be a mess for a long time.”

With time running out, thousands flee Hurricane Harvey
https://apnews.com/9a1b2e5f3a4a4213be31e48437d530cb/With-time-running-out,-thousands-flee-Hurricane-Harvey

 But thousands of others are not fleeing....
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wili

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #109 on: August 25, 2017, 11:44:43 PM »
This is the thing: People hear about sea level rise, and even at the extremes, it is measured in millimeters or at most centimeters per year.

Doesn't sound like much. Seems like something you can gradually plan for and avoid, slowly moving away from lower areas as they are more and more often covered at high tides...

But what we see here is that these higher sea levels serve as raised platforms from which GW-juiced monster storms like this push storm surges beyond anything seen in an areas history. And these are met by equally unprecedented deluges from the sky that last for days.

This is how more and more coastal cities will be damaged and destroyed (tho the myopia of Trump's infrastructure plan, insane insurance plans, and states where you can't even say the word GW will doom many areas to the slower death by a thousand ever higher tides...)

And we all get front seats to watch it happen this time.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #110 on: August 26, 2017, 12:15:31 AM »
"As bad as it gets."
https://twitter.com/wxkev/status/901203890468777984

"The rarest of warnings now issued for Corpus Christi area: Extreme Wind Warning. Only used for wind events >115 mph. #Harvey"
"Extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation!...  Widespread winds of 115 to 145 mph....  Treat these as though a tornado was approaching...."
https://twitter.com/cyclonebiskit/status/901202591375380484
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #111 on: August 26, 2017, 01:00:34 AM »
”I can't begin to describe how eerie it sounds outside right now...sounds like loud, booming thunder but it's not thunder..it's wind. #Harvey”
https://twitter.com/brianawhitney/status/901210633202487296

BREAKING: @CorpusChristiPD has ordered all officers cease responding to emergency calls until #HurricaneHarvey relents. Likely several hours
@CorpusChristiPD: Life threatening calls will be dispatched if conditions allow. #Harvey
https://twitter.com/corpuschristipd/status/901204783473729536

“Wow, already 5"[127mm]+ of rain from #Harvey, and the storm hasn't even made landfall yet.
It's going to be a long, long, long week.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901212515933093890
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #112 on: August 26, 2017, 01:02:51 AM »
The Weather Channel:  Winds up to 130mph.  Harvey is now a Category 4 Hurricane as it approaches landfall.  Pressure 941mb.  Moving NW at 8mph.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2017, 01:15:12 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #113 on: August 26, 2017, 01:35:56 AM »
Rockport, Texas is just north of Corpus Christi and is the likely point of hurricane center landfall.

Rockport mayor pro tem: Those who don't evacuate should mark Social Security number on their arm with a permanent marker
The mayor pro tem in the coastal city of Rockport, Texas had a grim message for residents in his city ahead of Hurricane Harvey’s arrival:

Those who don’t evacuate the city should prepare for the worst by writing their name and social security number on their arm.

“Those that are going to stay -- it’s unfortunate -- but they should make some type of preparation to mark their arm with a Sharpie Pen,” said Rockport Mayor Pro Tem Patrick Rios. “Put their social security number on it, and their name.”

“We can’t emphasize enough that this is a life-threatening storm. All the advice we can give is get out now.”
http://www.wfaa.com/weather/rockport-mayor-pro-tem-those-who-dont-evacuate-should-mark-social-security-number-on-their-arm/467378851


Edit:
"6:10 pm. #HARVEY is now Cat 4 & we're at Ground Zero. The hotel manager called us all to meeting. Topic: what to do if hotel blows apart."
https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/901220684281651200
« Last Edit: August 26, 2017, 02:53:08 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Reallybigbunny

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #114 on: August 26, 2017, 02:43:28 AM »
Interesting live feed to follow Harvey below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFQTWzsE_cI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Acap3IrCYYk


Can anyone suggest better live sites?
« Last Edit: August 26, 2017, 03:46:17 AM by Reallybigbunny »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #115 on: August 26, 2017, 03:41:21 AM »
"Yesterday midday NHC forecast almost a category 4 #hurricane near landfall-fantastic prediction! Today's events are NOT a surprise #Harvey"
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/901242863132049408


Edit:
"Wind speed estimated by Corpus Christi Doppler radar near 140 mph immediately ENE of Rockport, Texas. Extreme surge likely ongoing at coast."
https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/901257859354296320
(Doppler images at the link.)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #116 on: August 26, 2017, 04:08:11 AM »
Should we believe the models?

Some of the rainfall forecasts from various model runs are even more mind-boggling than the official outlook. In many cases, the totals are “breaking the map”—producing local totals well beyond the highest-value colors on a particular model-derived map.  It is important not to fixate on a particular model solution or a single forecast, because the contours of the heaviest rain could easily shift, and there may be a fairly sharp northwest edge to the most torrential sustained downpours. The outlook is also contingent on the notion (strongly supported by models) that Harvey will remain more or less stationary for several days. If Harvey somehow moves more quickly than expected, the risk of the heaviest rains will drop sharply.

I asked precipitation modeling expert Russ Schumacher (Colorado State University) to weigh in on how we should approach the seemingly outlandish high-end model output. He said: “Harvey is poised to maximize both rain rate and rain duration. Tropical cyclones are especially efficient at wringing moisture out of the atmosphere, and this storm is staying close to the moisture source (the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico). Both of these factors are likely to contribute to very high rain rates.  And then there’s the motion of Harvey, which looks like it might be almost stationary for multiple days, which will yield an especially long duration of rainfall over parts of the Texas Gulf Coast.

“We don’t really have a great sense for how well we should expect our models to perform in these scenarios, because they happen so rarely that we don’t have analogous cases to compare them against! Without more investigation, it’s hard to say for sure whether the global models and the more localized, convection-allowing models are representing the rainfall processes differently, but they’re delivering very much the same message: very high rain rates for an exceptionally long time. And although some of these extremely high point rainfall totals are remarkable, what’s probably going to be the bigger issue is the volume of water that will fall, with 10+ inches of rain over a large region, regardless of where the local maxima end up happening."

The take-home message is that large swaths of southern and eastern Texas could see devastating and potentially catastrophic flooding, perhaps developing or extending well into next week. Residents should prepare as if they may experience some of the highest water levels on record for their area.

Major Hurricane Harvey Bears Down on Texas; Catastrophic Flooding Likely
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/major-hurricane-harvey-bears-down-texas-catastrophic-flooding-likely
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #117 on: August 26, 2017, 05:04:46 AM »
Harvey continues to deepen, now at 938mb, winds officially 130mph.

Terrible disaster unfolding before our eyes.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #118 on: August 26, 2017, 05:08:21 AM »
"One more #GOES16 30-sec VIS loop showing #Harvey approaching the Texas coast as the sun sets - data preliminary and non-operational"
https://twitter.com/danlindsey77/status/901260281397084160
(Satellite gif at the link.)

"Winds have gone dead calm in Rockport, Texas as the eye has moved overhead. Gusts to 108 mph reported less than an hour ago."
https://twitter.com/hfsweather/status/901277702145159168

"Latest storm / damage reports from Hurricane #Harvey:"
https://twitter.com/scottskomo/status/901276912714104832

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #119 on: August 26, 2017, 05:17:49 AM »
When weather models get completely befuddled:

I understand that you all like humor during these dark times so I present you with this evening’s spaghetti plot of track models that were initialized at 6pm CT, and came out shortly thereafter. They are nonsensical. I posted them to Twitter with this comment: “Great to see that the latest forecast models are finally getting a good handle on Harvey’s inland track.”
https://spacecityweather.com/harvey-after-dark-what-we-know-after-day-one/amp/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #120 on: August 26, 2017, 05:30:00 AM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #121 on: August 26, 2017, 05:41:02 AM »
 Land there is flat; little to disrupt the airflow.

Ryan Maue:  "Half of Hurricane #Harvey is ashore over land including half of its eye.  Unphased, no sign of weakening."
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/901269861967560705
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Ajpope85

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #122 on: August 26, 2017, 05:52:57 AM »
Local news program is live broadcasting on youtube here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTXQVOtroIQ

Here's a guy live streaming

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1zqKVRbYXWWKB?
« Last Edit: August 26, 2017, 06:03:05 AM by Ajpope85 »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #123 on: August 26, 2017, 06:19:49 AM »
Landfall of Hurricane #Harvey
August 25, 2017
(via NOAA GOES-16)

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901296864946929664
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #124 on: August 26, 2017, 12:45:52 PM »
Update as of 4am CDT, 5 am ET:  Harvey is weakening but barely moving, and expected to remain not far from the Gulf at tropical storm strength for days.  Although it is moving slightly inland, it "continues to bring life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast."

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey's eye has moved inland gradually during the past few hours,
and maximum winds have decreased significantly since landfall.
Radar velocity data from the Corpus Christi NOAA Doppler radar are
showing winds as high as 90 kt at an elevation of 3000-3500 ft in
the northwestern eyewall.  The advisory intensity is therefore set
at 85 kt, which could still be a little generous.  Continued
weakening is expected as Harvey's eye continues to move inland, and
maximum sustained winds are likely to fall below hurricane force
later today.  A more gradual weakening trend is anticipated after
that point, and Harvey is forecast to maintain tropical storm
strength at least through day 4, especially if part of its
circulation remains over water.  The updated NHC intensity forecast
continues a similar weakening trend noted in previous advisories and
is closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).

The initial motion has continued to decrease, and it is now
estimated to be 325/5 kt.  As the steering currents around Harvey
continue to collapse, the cyclone is expected to stall or meander
inland over southeastern Texas.  Only a few models show any sort of
definitive northeastward motion at the end of the forecast period,
and for the most part, the most reliable models keep Harvey over
southeastern Texas through day 5.  The NHC track forecast depicts
Harvey taking a slow counterclockwise loop just inland from the
coast.  This track is expected to exacerbate the potential for
catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall at least through the
middle of next week.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is moving farther inland over southeastern Texas and
continues to bring life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to portions of the Texas coast.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could still reach heights of 6
to 12 feet above ground level at the coast between Port Aransas and
Port O'Connor.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow
motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore flow, water
levels will remain elevated for several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/260855.shtml?

Update:
A NOAA tide gauge at Port Lavaca, Texas, recently measured a water
level of 6.6 feet above Mean Higher High Water.

An automated mesonet rain gauge near Victoria, Texas, is reporting
a 24 h precipitation total of 16.43 inches.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/260955.shtml?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #125 on: August 26, 2017, 01:02:20 PM »
Corpus Christi weather office being evacuated. (Image)

Latest TWC rainfall forecast map (image)

Precipitable water:
Jim Cantore: 3.26" PWAT!! Never seen one past 2.85"
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/901391293368107009

Hurricane Harvey Exploding Power Lines, Violent Wind & Storm Surge Rockport, Texas
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=go-rFTzX6LU
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #126 on: August 26, 2017, 01:06:49 PM »
Hurricane Harvey Could Also Be a Major Pollution Disaster
The powerful storm is headed straight toward the heart of the American petrochemical industry, while a key EPA response position remains unfilled.
Environmental advocates are also worried that Harvey will create long-term public health problems due to accidental toxic substance releases, and not just from refineries and power plants. In the 30 counties where a disaster has been declared, there are dozens of Superfund sites, many of which are essentially waste pits containing harmful chemicals. The San Jacinto River Waste Pits, for example, contain carcinogenic dioxins, which are linked to birth defects. Advocates also rightly point out that communities living closest to all these sites—both the Superfunds and the refineries—are disproportionately low-income and minority. “This is an environmental justice issue,” Enck said.
https://newrepublic.com/article/144513/hurricane-harvey-also-major-pollution-disaster
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #127 on: August 26, 2017, 01:13:16 PM »
Harvey is not the only storm currently raging:

Typhoon Hato, a maximum category 10 storm, has slammed into Hong Kong and Macau with destructive winds and waves which uprooted trees, flooded streets and forced most businesses to close.

Three people have died and two gone missing in Macau, according to a Civil Defence Centre announcement reported by the South China Morning Post.

One of those killed was a 30-year-old man who was hit by a falling wall, the report said.

In Hong Kong more than 400 flights were cancelled, financial markets suspended and all schools were closed as Hato bore down on the city, the first category 10 storm to hit Hong Kong since typhoon Vicente in 2012.

- AAP/New Zealand Herald, Aug 23, 2017

Typhoon Hato, a maximum category 10 storm, slams into Hong Kong, Macau
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11909596
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #128 on: August 26, 2017, 03:30:35 PM »
This is a thoughtful article on how Harvey Floods could stuff the flood insurance system.
Also highlights how much money is wasted rebuilding in high-flood-risk locations.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/how-hurricane-harvey-could-cause-long-term-devastation/538080/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #129 on: August 26, 2017, 04:07:35 PM »
Houston, Texas roads are beginning to flood.

Chief Art Acevedo : Heavy rain with moderate wind in our area. Street flooding is occurring please stay off the roads.
https://twitter.com/artacevedo/status/901415065341095937

High water locations / road closures:
https://traffic.houstontranstar.org/roadclosures/roadclosures.aspx?typ=hw#highwater
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #130 on: August 26, 2017, 04:18:39 PM »
From yesterday.  Radar loop at the link.

Brian McNoldy:  A spectacular example of an eyewall replacement cycle in #Harvey today... this 8-hour radar loop is mesmorizing. @UMiamiRSMAS
https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/901179954150486019
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #131 on: August 26, 2017, 04:22:00 PM »
Hurricane Harvey: Texas power outages affect more than quarter-million
More than a quarter-million customers are without power in Texas early Saturday after Hurricane Harvey made landfall. Utilities are reporting outages affecting more than 261,000 customers.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/hurricane-harvey-texas-power-outages-affect-more-than-255000/
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #132 on: August 26, 2017, 04:45:45 PM »
Heard from my relative in Corpus this morning and she is safe with no damage, and preparing for the deluge.

All around the world it's people like those in the snip below that are most vulnerable to these cyclones and other natural diasters.  Also saw that 60% of Rockport's 9000 residents remained in place, and this town was hit with 130mph winds.

pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #133 on: August 26, 2017, 04:58:10 PM »
Reports coming in from Rockport, extreme damage as seen below.  Also, peak winds in Aransas, where the gentleman quoted above remained, were recorded at 132mph.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #134 on: August 26, 2017, 05:14:34 PM »
Scribble emphasizes the risks from feet of rainfall in the coming days:

Title: "Harvey’s Mammoth Deluge Potential: Some Models Are Showing Storm Could Produce Five Feet of Rain"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/25/harveys-mammoth-deluge-potential-some-models-are-showing-storm-could-produce-five-feet-of-rain/

Extract: "Consensus models now predict that peak rainfall totals will be around 35 inches in association with Harvey. This is due to the dual facts that Harvey is currently a very moisture-rich storm and that the storm is expected to stall for between 5 and 10 days following landfall. The storm is predicted to hover along the coastline, drawing in an unusually intense flow of moisture from a much warmer than normal Gulf, and to generate severe thunderstorms hour after hour, day after day. And this kind of rain event, if it emerges, could produce a disaster of historic proportions for Texas.

It’s worth noting that rainfall totals could also exceed the consensus forecast. Some models are now predicting upwards of 50 or 60 inches of rainfall by the time Harvey leaves the Texas area later next week (see top image above).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #135 on: August 26, 2017, 06:23:56 PM »
"Rainfall amounts rising from #Harvey, nearing 15 inches in some areas".  [image]
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/901471006187024387

Harvey's forward motion has all but stopped, meaning the same areas will be deluged for hours or days.

CenterPoint Energy:  As widespread flooding & tornadoes are expected to persist for several days, #Harvey power outages will take longer than usual to repair.
https://twitter.com/cnpalerts/status/901474170567110657

Precipitation forecast for Saturday from the NWS WPC.  (Image)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #136 on: August 26, 2017, 06:31:14 PM »
Rafael Lemaitre: White Oak Bayou now vs yesterday. Still early. #harvey
https://twitter.com/itsraflemaitre/status/901454210994126848

Steve Bowen:  Worth monitoring closely: White Oak Bayou in Houston, Texas is rising rapidly. Latest NWS forecast shows major flood stage tomorrow. #Harvey
https://twitter.com/stevebowenwx/status/901453261764530177
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A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #137 on: August 26, 2017, 11:20:19 PM »
Looks overblown. Nearing San Antonio already.

pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #138 on: August 26, 2017, 11:40:23 PM »
Big test for Houston.  Overnight could see a foot or more of rain, depending on where the banding and gradient sets up.  Americans could be waking up tomorrow to a crisis in one of its biggest cities.

Csnavywx

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #139 on: August 26, 2017, 11:41:40 PM »
Steering flow aloft has collapsed. No movement in the past 2 hours. Due to the strengthening mid-upper ridge to the northwest and a relative weakening of the ridging over the GoM, I would expect a very slow cyclonic loop or S/SE movement to commence sometime tomorrow. The ECMWF has been on top of this and dt/dprog is low. It brings the center back over water sometime Monday morning, offering a window for the circulation to regenerate somewhat. Also, that coastal configuration would be terrible as a rain-cooled dome can cause/reinforce a coastal front setup and enhance deep moist convergence. Warm-rain processes (low/no ice crystal or Bergeron process) are extremely efficient at converting this type of setup into copious amounts of rain.

As for the next 24 hours, we'll have to watch to see where the next feeder band(s) set up. The latest HRRR runs show the feeder band closest to the core migrating slowly east and then stalling near Houston tonight. Certainly possible.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #140 on: August 26, 2017, 11:46:53 PM »
Buffalo Bayou, the main river that goes through downtown Houston, is now expected to reach record flood stage due to #Harvey's rainfall.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901536460393783296
Image1

[Forecast] for a record crest of Brazos River in TX is prompting mandatory evacuations in parts of Houston metro.
https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/901533084708896769
Image 2

Mayor of Holiday Lakes along the Brazos River issued a mandatory evacuation. They're asking everyone to leave by mid-day Sunday #khou11
https://twitter.com/erikaferrandotv/status/901537695800987648

“Virtually every river and stream between San Antonio and Houston will see record or near-record flooding this week.”
http://grist.org/article/hurricane-harvey-will-bring-some-of-the-heaviest-downpours-anyone-has-ever-seen/
Image 3
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #141 on: August 27, 2017, 12:31:36 AM »
Steering flow aloft has collapsed. No movement in the past 2 hours. Due to the strengthening mid-upper ridge to the northwest and a relative weakening of the ridging over the GoM, I would expect a very slow cyclonic loop or S/SE movement to commence sometime tomorrow. The ECMWF has been on top of this and dt/dprog is low. It brings the center back over water sometime Monday morning, offering a window for the circulation to regenerate somewhat. Also, that coastal configuration would be terrible as a rain-cooled dome can cause/reinforce a coastal front setup and enhance deep moist convergence. Warm-rain processes (low/no ice crystal or Bergeron process) are extremely efficient at converting this type of setup into copious amounts of rain.

As for the next 24 hours, we'll have to watch to see where the next feeder band(s) set up. The latest HRRR runs show the feeder band closest to the core migrating slowly east and then stalling near Houston tonight. Certainly possible.

The 21z HRRR backed off on amounts (but still 10 inches) but expanded the banding across Gavelston Bay, and it's still raining at the end of the run.

pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #142 on: August 27, 2017, 02:31:47 AM »
Steering flow aloft has collapsed. No movement in the past 2 hours. Due to the strengthening mid-upper ridge to the northwest and a relative weakening of the ridging over the GoM, I would expect a very slow cyclonic loop or S/SE movement to commence sometime tomorrow. The ECMWF has been on top of this and dt/dprog is low. It brings the center back over water sometime Monday morning, offering a window for the circulation to regenerate somewhat. Also, that coastal configuration would be terrible as a rain-cooled dome can cause/reinforce a coastal front setup and enhance deep moist convergence. Warm-rain processes (low/no ice crystal or Bergeron process) are extremely efficient at converting this type of setup into copious amounts of rain.

As for the next 24 hours, we'll have to watch to see where the next feeder band(s) set up. The latest HRRR runs show the feeder band closest to the core migrating slowly east and then stalling near Houston tonight. Certainly possible.

The 21z HRRR backed off on amounts (but still 10 inches) but expanded the banding across Gavelston Bay, and it's still raining at the end of the run.

Subsequent runs have held on to the expanded precip banding, but have restored higher totals, with 12-16 inches across Houston metro between now and 11am local.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #143 on: August 27, 2017, 02:58:18 AM »
"Chilling statement on #Harvey from Aransas Co, TX Sheriff Bill Mills. Didn't want to shorten, as the magnitude is sad, yet sobering...."
https://twitter.com/AndreaButera/status/901602718657257473
(Message at link)

"Tornado coming towards us Barker Cypress "
https://twitter.com/its_Glose/status/901566646330019840
(Video at link)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #144 on: August 27, 2017, 03:05:22 AM »
"Harvey is expected to move about 100 miles in the next 5 days—a speed of less than 1mph.
Tremendous flood potential."
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901606187224924160
Image 1

It's all about the water now. Huge chunk of real estate (60,000 sq mi) under high or moderate risk for excessive rain + storm surge #Harvey
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901577848531517440
Image 2

HRRR model thru Sunday morning shows non-stop feeder bands of extreme rainfall spiraling around former Hurricane #Harvey
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901605686835953664
(Model radar loop at the link.)

Latest (23Z) high-res HRRR model shows >24" of rain over west Houston suburbs btw now & mid-Sunday.
#Harvey won't move much til Wed.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901608298243178496
Image 3

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #145 on: August 27, 2017, 03:09:07 AM »
NHC Atlantic Ops:  A low over Florida could become a tropical or subtropical depression early next week off the southeast US coast hurricanes.gov  #92L
https://mobile.twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/901547866036076545
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #146 on: August 27, 2017, 04:46:29 AM »
Extremely rare "flash flood emergency" declared by National Weather Service in Houston.
Rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour for the next 3+hrs
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901635192015642624

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for western parts of the Houston metro including downtown Houston and Missouri City. #HOUwx

@NWSHouston NWS: "Extremely dangerous & life-threatening situation"
"do not...travel unless you are fleeing an area...or under an evacuation order."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901636945666646017

------
The 1st and only other time a "flash flood emergency" has been declared by @NWSHouston was 5/26/15, this happened:
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-weather/article/Remembering-the-Memorial-Day-Flood-one-America-s-11176375.php#photo-8055129
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901635989046648833
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #147 on: August 27, 2017, 05:53:07 AM »
Well it's not even midnight and the situation in Houston is deteriorating rapidly.  Prolific rainfall rates and widespread flooding, rivers and bayous are surging.  Bands will continue to stream in overnight from the Gulf.  Nighttime is the worst possible time for all of this to happen.

pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #148 on: August 27, 2017, 06:04:21 AM »
A 6.04 inch per hour rate was recorded near Houston, marking a 1 in 500 year event threshold.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/901652168196968448

Csnavywx

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #149 on: August 27, 2017, 06:16:34 AM »
Disastrous rainfall rates in that band. Got a merger coming up too. Another band could work its way in later tomorrow morning. The mass convergence on the E/SE quad is incredible right now.